DM Assessment PARTB Data 1 82772111

MSc Health Economics and Health Policy - HH5561 Decision Modleling
Assesment details
A model structure and data for a stylised testing intervention are provided in the following worksheets
· Program the decision model
· Perform sensitivity analysis
· Report the results
You will NOT submit this MS Excel file, but will be required to write a short a report of your findings b
Submission
Part B – You should, produce a short report of the results from your programming and analysis (up t
i. You must use the following headings:
• Results – Present base case results and sensitivity analysis (guide: ~800 w
• Conclusions – Present a short conclusion for decision making based on t
• References - use consistently and as per the referencing guidance
ii. You should use appropriate tables and figures to present data - ensure they are legible an
iii. Use appropriate academic referencing, using Harvard referencing style, where appropria
Worksheets
Introduction - Overview of assessment details
Concpetual model - A diagram and infomration depciting the concpetual model structure (Decision Tre
Data - input parameter information
Notes
Read the Decision Problem on the 'conceptual model' sheet carefully to understand required outcome
You can create new worksheets and edit this spreadsheet as you see fit or construct the model in anot
Make sure you use all the data provided to run your model
You can use Macros and VBA if you see fit
This is a hypothetical model simplified for educational purposes but is based on similar models in the p
Decision Modleling
vided in the following worksheets. As per the assessment brief you should:
a short a report of your findings based on your analysis.
ur programming and analysis (up to 1,000 words):
sensitivity analysis (guide: ~800 words)

on for decision making based on the analysis (guide: ~200 words)
er the referencing guidance
nt data - ensure they are legible and contribute to your analysis. Although tables and figures do not count towards 1,000-word l
eferencing style, where appropriate
tual model structure (Decision Tree)
to understand required outcomes

fit or construct the model in another spreadsheet
s based on similar models in the published literature

o not count towards 1,000-word limit, only use tables and figures if they are essential to support your critical evaluation. Redun
ort your critical evaluation. Redundant data presented in tables and figures are not welcome.
Decision Problem
Population - patients admitted to hospital with a suspected severe infection
Intervention - adding a test to the clinical pathway to determine whether to start antibiotic treatment
Comparator - existing clinical practice, without test to guide decisions
Outcomes - costs, Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectivness (ICER), increment
Model summary
The model charts patients at 1 month (typically sufficient time for the initial inpatient episode to have
symptoms to have concluded). After admission to hospital patients can either begin antibiotics, or not
better decsions about the appropriateness of antibiotics and reduce the liklihood individuals will exper
effects and reduces complications.
Model Structure
Model - Decision tree
Time horizon - 12 month
Cost perspective - health care payer (Canadian Dollars)
Antibiotics started
Testing strategy
Antibiotics not started

Antibiotics started
Current clinical practice (no testing)
Antibiotics not started

re infection
whether to start antibiotic treatment
tal cost-effectivness (ICER), incremental monetary net benefit (INMB)
r the initial inpatient episode to have concluded) and 12 months (sufficient time for infection and
nts can either begin antibiotics, or not, following testing or usual clinical practice. The test helps to make
uce the liklihood individuals will experience adverse reactions. Use of the test therefore has mortality
1 month follow-up 12 month follow-up
Alive (no complications) Alive
Dead
Alive with antibiotic Alive

complications
Dead
Dead Dead
Alive Alive
Dead
s not started
Dead Dead
Alive (no complications) Alive

Dead
Alive with antibiotic Alive

complications
Dead
Dead Dead
Alive Alive
Dead
s not started
Dead Dead
Clinical parameters
Input Value (mean) Standard error
Mortality
1 month follow-up
Baseline (current practice) mortality 0.15 0.02
Relative risk (RR) testing strategy 0.9 0.03
12 month follow-up
Mortality after complications 0.3 0.06
Mortality no complications 0.05 0.01
Complications
Baseline (current practice) probability 0.25 0.04
Antibiotic initiation
Baseline (current practice) 0.85 0.07
Cost parameters (CAN $)

Input Value (mean) Standard error
Testing costs $ 250.00 NA
Antibiotics $ 50.00 NA
Hospital inpatient stay complications $ 17,500.00 500
Hospital inpatient stay (patient died) $ 12,500.00 350
Hospital inpatient stay no complications $ 4,500.00 300
Outcome parameters
Input Value Standard error
Alive at 1 month (QALY) 0.1 NA
Alive at 12 months (QALY) 0.75 NA
QALY decrement for complications -0.05 NA
Notes
95% confidence
interval can be
computed by mean
value +/- 1.96 x S.E
Notes
at 1 month
at 1 month
at 1 month
Notes

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MSc Health Economics and Health Policy - HH5561 Decision Modleling

a short a report of your findings based on your analysis.

ur programming and analysis (up to 1,000 words):

sensitivity analysis (guide: ~800 words)

tual model structure (Decision Tree)

to understand required outcomes

s based on similar models in the published literature

Antibiotics not started

Current clinical practice (no testing)

Antibiotics not started

tal cost-effectivness (ICER), incremental monetary net benefit (INMB)

1 month follow-up 12 month follow-up

Alive (no complications) Alive

Alive with antibiotic Alive

Alive (no complications) Alive

Alive with antibiotic Alive

Cost parameters (CAN $)

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