International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 60 (2024) 1345–1358

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International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he

How hydrogen can decarbonize the chemical industry in China: A review

based on the EIC–TER industrial assessment framework
Zihan Zhen a, Biyao Li a, Xunmin Ou a, Sheng Zhou a, *
a
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The green hydrogen chemical industry is integral to achieving carbon neutrality in China’s chemical industry.
Green hydrogen The lack of systematic and in-depth potential assessment is the primary challenge facing the development of the
Chemical industry current green hydrogen chemical industry. This study focused on the three major chemical sectors (ammonia,
Carbon neutrality
methanol, and refining), assessed the development trends of the upstream and downstream industries from the
Techno-economic analysis
perspective of the entire industry chain (EIC), and evaluated the development potential of green hydrogen from
the dimensions of technology, economy, and roadmap. This study proposes that the rapid transformation of the
hydrogen production structure and the increase in the market size of the downstream chemical industry have
created a broad space for the application of green hydrogen in the chemical industry. Two application modes of
green hydrogen—raw material substitution and process substitution—have high technical feasibility. With the
carbon price reaching over $40/tCO2 and the green hydrogen price around $2500/tH2 in 2035, related tech­
nologies can gradually become economical from 2035 to 2040. Related green hydrogen consumption will reach
approximately 40 Mt in 2050, and hydrogen-related emissions will fall to 10 % of 2020 levels. Furthermore, this
study found significant homogeneity problems with the green hydrogen chemical industry in real-world de­
ployments, emphasizing the need to strengthen top-level design in policymaking.

1. Introduction roadmap cannot be reasonably deployed in advance, a large number of

high-cost negative emissions technologies will inevitably be used in the
Decarbonizing the chemical industry is essential for China to achieve later stages of the low-carbon transition, hindering the achievement of
its dual-carbon commitments. In September 2020, China announced its carbon neutrality goals.
commitment to peak carbon emissions in 2030 and achieving carbon In this context, hydrogen, as the most promising zero-carbon raw
neutrality in 2060. However, China’s primary energy structure, domi­ material and energy of the twenty-first century [8,9], has enormous
nated by coal, has a high carbon intensity [1,2]. Because of the high potential to aid in decarbonizing the chemical industry, drawing sig­
demand for national economic development in the future, energy con­ nificant interest in the green hydrogen chemical industry [10]. The
sumption and emissions will be difficult to reach a peak [3], presenting United States [11], Japan [12], the European Union [13], and China
more challenges for China’s dual-carbon commitments. [14] have all incorporated plans for decarbonizing the chemical in­
Of the many emission reduction tasks, the chemical industry is a dustry based on hydrogen into their national strategies, particularly in
typical hard-to-abate industry. The chemical industry has high carbon sectors such as ammonia, methanol, and refining. Various studies have
intensity, relies heavily on fossil fuels for its raw materials and energy systematically assessed the possibilities and application prospects of the
demand, and has relatively limited low-carbon alternatives [4]. In the green hydrogen chemical industry, suggesting that technologies related
carbon neutralization process, the CO2 emissions that must be reduced to green hydrogen could become economically competitive by 2035
in the chemical industry often correspond to the last 10 % of CO2, with [15–17] and dominate the majority of market shares by 2060 [4,16,18].
steep marginal abatement costs [5]. China is the largest country in the Despite these positive results, studies of the green hydrogen chemical
manufacturing of chemicals, and its carbon intensity is approximately industry also contain problems, such as systematic deficiencies, one-
10 % higher than the world average [6,7]. If the decarbonization sided research perspectives, and significant discrepancies in the

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Zhou).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.02.001
Received 15 November 2023; Received in revised form 8 January 2024; Accepted 1 February 2024
Available online 27 February 2024
0360-3199/© 2024 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Z. Zhen et al. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 60 (2024) 1345–1358

findings. First, many studies have systematic deficiencies. Most research methanol and oil refining. At the same time, upstream refers to the
[15,19–23] examines potential decarbonization roadmaps holistically, various types of hydrogen supplied to hydrogen-based chemicals, and
encompassing electrification, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage downstream refers to the main uses of ammonia, methanol, and oil. An
(CCUS). However, there is limited depth in the analysis of the green assessment from an EIC perspective can improve the granularity of the
hydrogen chemical industry and a notable absence of a systematic analysis process and the credibility of the development trend, which is
assessment of its upstream and downstream industries. ignored by many studies.
Second, many studies use a single research perspective. Most The second key concept is the TER research perspective, where a
research examines the potential of the green hydrogen chemical in­ combined analysis of technology, economy, and roadmap is essential.
dustry from a perspective rooted in techno-economic analysis [10, First, technical feasibility is a prerequisite for economic evaluation and
24–27]. However, these studies often have little in-depth description of roadmaps deployment. Evaluating technological feasibility requires a
the technology, making it challenging to enhance readers’ comprehen­ profound understanding of the basic technical principles. More impor­
sion of the technical process, resulting in critical parameters not being tantly, this will also help to improve the rationality of key assumptions
technically feasible. Conversely, a minority of studies concentrating on and parameters in techno-economic assessment, increasing the credi­
green hydrogen chemical technologies [28] often lack techno-economic bility of research results. Second, for decision-makers, economics is the
analysis, making it difficult to support policymaking. primary factor in determining investment or deployment decisions [4],
Finally, many studies have found significant disparities in their while roadmaps are often the starting point for policy deployment.
presumptive procedures and results. Future carbon and green hydrogen Scientific economic assessment and roadmap planning are prerequisites
prices are decisive factors leading to the economics of related technol­ for effective deployment, making it necessary to calibrate the results
ogies. However, some studies may have more than four times the dif­ under the same assumptions.
ference in future assumptions about the above factors [3,15,17,29], The third key concept is the comparison between academic research
resulting in weaker conclusions. and real-world deployment. Because of administrative orders, public
In response to the above knowledge gaps, this study proposed an preferences, and industrial policies, economics is not the only factor
Entire Industry Chain–Technology, Economy, and Roadmap (EIC–TER) determining real-world deployment [17]. Therefore, sorting out the
industrial assessment framework, calibrated the results of multiple actual deployment of relevant projects and further analyzing the reasons
studies, analyzed the upstream and downstream of the green hydrogen for the gap between reality and research is necessary to optimize and
chemical industry in detail from the perspective of EIC, and systemati­ adjust subsequent policies.
cally evaluated the decarbonization potential of hydrogen in China’s Furthermore, identification and selection of the literature under­
chemical industry through the TER framework. Furthermore, this study pinned our review. We selected two databases, WOS and China National
also offers suggestions for researchers and policymakers to address Knowledge Infrastructure, and research reports on related topics as the
critical issues found in the review. This research conducted a systematic main sources of our review. We limited the publication year of the
and in-depth assessment of the potential of hydrogen in the chemical literature to 2017 to the present. We used the following terms in the
industry decarbonization, which can provide reliable decision support title-abstract-keyword fields to search. Literature selection was based on
for future academic research and policymaking. relevance to our topic and quality of the literature. For topics a-e, 31, 25,
13, 28, and 21 main references were selected respectively. It is worth
2. Method: EIC–TER industrial assessment framework mentioning that although China’s carbon neutrality goal is 2060, many
studies only extend their time horizon until 2050. In order to increase
The proposed EIC–TER industrial assessment framework is vital for the sample size for result comparison, the time horizon of our study is up
the industrial low-carbon transition. Fig. 1 illustrates a concept map of to 2050.
the EIC–TER framework, encompassing three key concepts. The first key
concept is the EIC research perspective, which emphasizes the impor­ 3. Current status of hydrogen production and utilization in
tance of paying attention to the upstream and downstream trends of China
hydrogen-based chemical industry. Among them, hydrogen-based
chemical industry mainly refers to the three sectors of ammonia, On the basis of different hydrogen production technologies,

Fig. 1. Concept map of EIC–TER framework.

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hydrogen can be categorized into three types: gray, blue, and green. for approximately 85 % of the total hydrogen demand [41]. In 2020,
Gray hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced directly from fossil fuel, these sectors consumed 32 %, 27 %, and 25 % of the hydrogen [39–42],
including coal gasification, steam methane reforming, and industrial by- respectively, amounting to 10.8 Mt, 9.1 Mt [39,41], and 8.3 Mt [27,41].
product extraction [30]. These technologies are relatively mature [31] The production of 1 ton of ammonia or methanol required approxi­
and less expensive [32]. Blue hydrogen is hydrogen produced from fossil mately 0.18t and 0.11t of hydrogen [40], while refining 1.0t of crude oil
fuel equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), which can required approximately 0.012 t of hydrogen [44]. Furthermore,
significantly reduce the carbon emissions in hydrogen production [10, approximately 15.4 % of the hydrogen was used for other purposes, such
30]. The deployment potential of blue hydrogen largely depends on the as industrial heating or being wasted [41]. There are significant differ­
development potential of CCS [32], but the current costs remain rela­ ences in the hydrogen sources of each application sector, primarily
tively high [33,34]. Broadly, green hydrogen refers to hydrogen pro­ because of the characteristics of each sector. This aspect was often
duced from renewable and nuclear energy. Renewable energy includes overlooked by many studies [39]; for example, the higher proportion of
wind, solar, hydro, and biomass. The processes for green hydrogen by-product hydrogen in the refining sector is the result of self-generated
production predominantly encompass electrolysis [35,36], thermo­ by-product hydrogen.
chemical processes [37], and biomass gasification [37,38]. The carbon
emissions of green hydrogen are close to net zero, but the cost is very 4. Prospects for upstream and downstream development of the
high. green hydrogen chemical industry
China’s hydrogen production structure is still dominated by gray
hydrogen, accounting for more than 95 %. Fig. 2 illustrates the hydrogen 4.1. Prospects for low-carbon hydrogen production in China
production and utilization status in 2020. Because of variations in sta­
tistical criteria (e.g., some studies classify hydrogen from ethane- The key to low-carbon applications of hydrogen lies in its low-carbon
cracking as hydrogen production from oil rather than by-product production. Hydrogen is a critical link between fossil fuel and renewable
hydrogen), there are disparities in the estimated results of many energy [44], offering significant potential for low-carbon applications.
studies [39–42]. This study performed data calibration based on the However, from the perspective of lifecycle analysis, the low-carbon
mean of many results. application of hydrogen depends on its low-carbon production, which
In 2020, the hydrogen production amount in China was approxi­ relies on the widespread adoption of low-carbon energy and the matu­
mately 33.4 Mt39–42, with gray hydrogen accounting for over 95 % of the rity of energy conversion technologies. In recent years, the costs of
total [42]. The average cost was approximately $1800/t17, and the low-carbon energy, represented by wind and solar power, have rapidly
carbon emissions from hydrogen production were approximately 510 decreased, and alkaline electrolyzer and proton-exchange membrane
Mt17. In the hydrogen production structure, coal-based hydrogen ac­ electrolyzer technologies have also made swift advancements [10,27],
counts for 60 %, while natural gas-based hydrogen and by-product enabling large-scale green hydrogen production [17].
hydrogen each account for 20 % [41,42]. This resulted in a carbon in­ The cost of green hydrogen will decrease significantly in the next 15
tensity of hydrogen in 2020 of approximately 15.0 tCO2/tH17 2 , signifi­ years, becoming economically competitive around 2035. Green
cantly higher than that of developed economies such as the European hydrogen will become mainstream around 2050. The production cost of
Union and the United States [10]. green hydrogen is relatively high, ranging from $5000/tH2 to $8500/
Hydrogen is used primarily in the chemical industry. The three major tH2, depending on the type of renewable energy used. Some studies
emission sectors—ammonia, methanol, and refining [15,43]—account suggest that, given the learning curve effect, green hydrogen is expected

Fig. 2. Hydrogen production and utilization balance in 2020 (Mt). Hollow fonts represent the scale of hydrogen production or application. Width of the lines in­
dicates the scale of hydrogen use from a specific production section to a specific application. The related data have been calibrated based on many studies [39–42].

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to experience a substantial cost reduction in the next 15 years [10,17,27, hydrogen production accounts for over 80 % of the CO2 emissions in
36] (see Fig. 3). ammonia and methanol production and approximately 30 % in refining
The cost of hydrogen production from wind and solar power is [49–51]. Therefore, the transition of hydrogen production will indi­
projected to decrease by more than 60 %, primarily because of the rectly drive the decarbonization of these sectors [52]. With process
decrease in the levelized cost of electricity. By 2060, the cost of green substitution, many new technologies based on green hydrogen have also
hydrogen may decrease to below 2000 $/t [17,45]. Moreover, wind- and rapidly developed and are gradually being implemented [53].
solar-based hydrogen production technologies will experience explosive Third, the future market demand for these sectors may further in­
growth after 2035 and gradually become the mainstream technology crease [4], creating a larger utilization space for hydrogen-based
[10,17,27,36]. The share of green hydrogen is projected to reach 50%– decarbonization. Therefore, considering the emissions structure of the
75 % around 2050 [10,17], laying the foundation for hydrogen-based chemical industry, the potential for hydrogen utilization, and the
chemical industry decarbonization (see Fig. 3). development trends of sub-sectors, the following analysis focused on
three sub-sectors: ammonia, methanol, and refining.

4.2. Low-carbon hydrogen utilization modes in the chemical industry

4.3. Current status and development trends of the major hydrogen
The optimistic outlook for the low-carbon transition of hydrogen utilization sectors
production has further heightened interest in the chemical industry’s
low-carbon utilization of hydrogen. Given the current application 4.3.1. Ammonia
structure of hydrogen and the downstream industry trends, many studies China has a large production of ammonia with high carbon intensity.
believe that the chemical industry will remain the primary battleground Ammonia is widely used in producing fertilizers such as urea and
for the deployment of hydrogen in the foreseeable future [16,42]. There ammonium carbonate and industrial products, including explosives and
are three primary modes of hydrogen-based chemical industry decar­ urea-formaldehyde resins. In China, ammonia consumption is approxi­
bonization: raw material substitution, process substitution, and heat mately 70 % in agriculture and 30 % in industry [54]. In the future,
substitution [24]. Raw material substitution involves using green ammonia is expected to become an important energy carrier for decar­
hydrogen to replace gray hydrogen in traditional processes. Process bonization efforts in the shipping and energy sectors. However, as the
substitution refers to adopting new green-hydrogen-related processes to world’s largest ammonia producer, China had a total production of
replace traditional ones. Heat substitution involves using hydrogen approximately 60 Mt in 2020, resulting in carbon emissions of approx­
instead of fossil fuels to provide high-quality heat. However, considering imately 220 Mt [15]. Moreover, over 70 % of China’s ammonia is pro­
the substitutability of thermoelectric conversion technologies and the duced from coal [15], resulting in a carbon intensity nearly 1.7 times the
issues associated with hydrogen as an alternative fuel (such as limited global average [10].
heat transfer performance, the generation of water vapor during com­ In the future, ammonia may face the possibility of declining agri­
bustion, and challenges in storage and liquefaction), many studies have cultural demand, a slight increase in industrial demand, and the po­
been less enthusiastic about using hydrogen for high-temperature in­ tential for explosive growth in energy demand, resulting in overall
dustrial heating [27,46–48]. Therefore, this study primarily focused on demand trends that initially decline and then rise. In terms of agricul­
decarbonization in the chemical industry through hydrogen-based raw tural demand, since the “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan,” China’s overall
material substitution and process substitution. fertilizer demand has been decreasing, with an average annual decrease
In the chemical industry, many studies have focused on the appli­ of more than 6 % [55]. Given the increased fertilizer utilization rate and
cation of hydrogen in three key sectors: ammonia, methanol, and the declining trend in China’s population growth, the agricultural de­
refining [4,16,18,29]. There are three reasons for this. First, these three mand for ammonia in 2050 may be less than 20 Mt [15,56,57].
sub-sectors are the major emission sectors within the chemical industry, Regarding industrial demand, the potential increase in demand for
collectively accounting for approximately 55 % of the total [15]. ammonia by 2050 is expected to be modest, reaching approximately 25
Second, there is significant decarbonization potential for green Mt. This increase can be attributed to the restricted pull effect of
hydrogen within these three sub-sectors. With raw material substitution, improved living standards among the population and the limited land

Fig. 3. (A) Prospects for levelized hydrogen production costs. The primary axis represents the levelized cost of hydrogen production, and the secondary axis cor­
responds to the carbon price at different stages. The relevant results were calculated by consolidating results based on the research of Zhen et al. [17], where the
market share of subdivided technologies corresponding to the same energy source was used as weights to perform a weighted summation of the costs of subdivided
technologies, resulting in the hydrogen production costs associated with different energy sources. (b) Prospects for the transition of hydrogen production structure,
based on the result from Zhen et al. [17].

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space for development and construction in the current industrial sector 920 Mt/year [69,70], and an actual processing volume of nearly 700
[15,57,58]. Mt/year, indicating an excess capacity of over 200 million tons per year
In terms of energy demand, ammonia, with its high calorific value in China [71]. Refining emits over 200 million tons of CO2 annually
and relatively easy liquefaction for storage and transportation [59], is [70], with a carbon intensity of approximately 0.2–0.3 tCO2/t petroleum
expected to experience explosive growth in energy demand [60] in [49,72,73]. Factors such as the high refining conversion rate and high
sectors such as shipping (especially for long-distance voyages) and carbon intensity of the energy structure make China’s refining carbon
ammonia-blended power generation [58] after 2035. By 2050, the de­ intensity among the highest worldwide [74].
mand for ammonia in these sectors could reach 35–75 Mt [61]. How­ In the future, China faces the possibility of transportation oil grad­
ever, some studies take a cautious stance [56] because of the significant ually peaking and rapidly declining, chemical oil steadily increasing,
technological uncertainties associated with these projections. industrial oil and other petrochemical product oil steadily declining at a
lower speed, with total oil demand gradually peaking and declining even
4.3.2. Current status and development trends of the methanol sector faster. Some studies suggest that [39,68], in the context of trans­
China has significant methanol production, but its carbon intensity is portation oil, there may still be growth in the short term because of an
considerably higher than developed countries. Methanol is an essential increase in consumption of gasoline and diesel vehicles and the growing
product in the chemical industry, used for producing other high-value demand for aviation kerosene. However, factors such as continuously
chemical products and serving as a crucial low-carbon replacement rising oil prices, domestic overcapacity, and the accelerating effect of
potential energy [62]. In China, the largest downstream sector for new energy vehicle substitution may lead to a peak in China’s trans­
methanol is still dominated by olefins, accounting for over 50 % of usage portation oil consumption around 2030, rapidly declining to approxi­
[63], followed by traditional downstream sectors, including formalde­ mately 190 Mt/year by 2050.
hyde, acetic acid, and others, making up nearly 35 % [63]. Finally, Given factors such as energy efficiency improvement, some studies
methanol as a fuel accounts for approximately 15 % of usage [15]. anticipate an even faster decline [75]. In the context of chemical oil,
In 2021, China’s total methanol production reached 82 Mt55, with with the changing supply-demand landscape and the continuous deep­
carbon emissions of 200 Mt. Most methanol production in China relies ening of the “refining towards refining-chemical integration” strategy
on coal as a feedstock, accounting for nearly 80 % of total capacity [64]. [76], China’s demand for chemical oil (primarily olefins and aromatics)
In contrast, global methanol production predominantly uses natural gas is expected to continue to rise and reach approximately 220 Mt/year by
as a feedstock, constituting approximately 70 % of the market share. 2050. Moreover, influenced by the dual-carbon goals and industrial
Neither the United States nor Europe produces methanol from coal. restructuring, the demand for industrial oil and other petrochemical
However, the carbon intensity of coal-based methanol production is products oil in China will gradually decrease to approximately 170
three times higher than that of natural gas-based methanol [15], high­ Mt/year by 2050.
lighting the significant carbon intensity challenge faced by China’s
methanol industry. 5. Potential of hydrogen-based decarbonization of China’s
In the future, China’s methanol sector may face the possibility of chemical industry from the perspective of TER
steadily decreasing demand in traditional downstream demand, gradual
growth in methanol-to-olefins (MTO) demand, and high uncertainty in 5.1. Technical feasibility analysis
energy demand, leading to an overall increase in demand over time. In
terms of traditional downstream demand, under the tightening actions Hydrogen-based decarbonization of China’s chemical industry has
of double control and limited construction and infrastructure develop­ relatively sufficient technical feasibility. Fig. 4 illustrates process dia­
ment, the downstream demand for formaldehyde and acetic acid, used grams for hydrogen-based decarbonization. In ammonia and the refining
primarily in building and decoration materials and refined oil additives, sector, hydrogen primarily contributes to decarbonization using low-
is limited. By 2050, this demand could steadily decrease to below 10 Mt emission hydrogen to achieve raw material substitution, resulting in
[65]. minimal modifications to existing equipment and high feasibility.
The demand for MTO is primarily constrained by the demand for Moreover, hydrogen contributes to the methanol sector through raw
ethylene, which is closely related to the downstream plastics industry. material substitution and process substitution. Although process sub­
For the plastics industry, the degree to which the circular economy is stitution technologies are not yet fully mature, some demonstration
implemented can result in differences in ethylene demand of more than projects have been implemented, indicating a relatively high feasibility.
100 % [15], leading to significant variations in the MTO supply and This section emphasizes critical issues that many techno-economics
demand outlook, ranging from 50 to 90 Mt in different studies [15,66, studies may overlook but merit attention (see Fig. 5).
67].
In terms of energy demand, the demand for methanol in 2050 could 5.1.1. Ammonia production and hydrogen-based decarbonization
range from 20 to 60 Mt [15,16,66] with a high level of uncertainty. technology
Because of methanol’s high cost and carbon-containing characteristics, Green hydrogen can help the ammonia sector decarbonize through
some studies suggest that its demand will peak around 2035 and remain raw material substitution and has a high degree of technical feasibility.
relatively stable. Other studies that considered factors such as energy In the traditional Haber-Bosch process for ammonia synthesis [61,77],
security believe that methanol has greater potential for future devel­ nitrogen is obtained either through air liquefaction separation or com­
opment [16]. bustion deoxygenation, whereas hydrogen is typically produced from
fossil fuel to create syngas, obtained through separation and purifica­
4.3.3. Current status and development trends of the refining sector tion. The obtained hydrogen and nitrogen must react using iron-based
China has significant refining capacity and faces excess capacity catalysts under extremely high temperatures and pressures to produce
pressure, and the refining sector emits a large amount of CO2 and has a ammonia [77].
high carbon intensity. Refining, also known as oil refining, involves the Depending on the fossil feedstock used, the carbon intensity of
deep processing of petroleum to produce refined oil products and ammonia production can vary slightly. Ammonia produced from coal
chemical products such as ethylene, propylene, and paraffin. Products of has a carbon intensity ranging from 3.1 to 4.3 tCO2/t, whereas ammonia
oil refining can be divided into four categories: transportation oil, produced from natural gas has a carbon intensity ranging from 1.95 to
chemical oil, industrial oil, and other petrochemical products oil, ac­ 2.35 tCO2/t [54]. Thermochemical and biomass gasification technolo­
counting for approximately 47 %, 23 %, 10 %, and 20 % [68], respec­ gies can also be used for ammonia synthesis. However, because of fac­
tively. China has the largest refining capacity, with a capacity exceeding tors such as high cost, low efficiency, and limited resources, their

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Fig. 4. Demand outlook for (a) ammonia, (b) methanol, and (c) refining. In the stacked column chart, different colors represent the various downstream utilization of
the product, and the error bars at the top of the columns indicate the uncertainty in the demand outlook. The pie chart illustrates the composition of uncertainty in
the demand outlook for different downstream utilization in 2050. The relevant data are derived from the analysis results presented in Section 4.3. (For interpretation
of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

potential for large-scale production is often questioned [77]. (Direct Air Capture), its carbon emissions can reach − 1.3 to − 1.5 tCO2/t
If green hydrogen is used exclusively for raw material substitution, [66]. Producing 1 t of green methanol requires approximately 1.4 t of
the carbon emissions in this process can reach net zero, with minimal CO2 and 0.18 t of H2 [66]. Methanol synthesized through this pathway is
need for significant modifications to existing equipment. This approach also referred to as green methanol. With the increasing potential for
demonstrates high technical feasibility and can help avoid stranding large-scale production of green hydrogen and low-cost CO2 supply, re­
traditional assets. Some studies refer to this pathway as green synthesis searchers generally believe this pathway has relatively high technical
of ammonia or power to X (PtX) synthesis [15], and the produced feasibility [44,84–87].
ammonia is referred to as green ammonia. For raw material substitution, reforming often achieves the appro­
priate carbon-hydrogen ratio by either adjusting the reaction tempera­
5.1.2. Methanol production and hydrogen-based decarbonization ture to induce CO conversion or additional hydrogenation. However,
technology both CO conversion and hydrogen production from fossil fuels generate
The mainstream technologies for large-scale methanol production significant carbon emissions. Green hydrogen can replace gray hydrogen
are coal-to-methanol and natural gas-to-methanol processes. In the coal- during additional hydrogenation and reforming, avoiding the carbon
to-methanol process, coal is gasified with oxygen in a gasifier to produce emissions produced by CO conversion (which accounts for 70 % of the
raw gas with a high CO content. By adjusting the reaction temperature total [86]). This approach is also referred to as a coupled pathway [15],
under an appropriate catalyst or adding extra hydrogen, the syngas and its total hydrogen consumption remains almost unchanged
reaches the carbon-hydrogen ratio required for the reaction [78]. It then (although there is still 20 % of non-substitutable hydrogen because of
undergoes processes such as CO2 removal, desulfurization, pressuriza­ gasification [51]). The carbon intensity can be reduced to between 0.3
tion, temperature-raising synthesis, and distillation to produce and 0.55 tCO2/t [86], demonstrating relatively high technical
methanol. feasibility.
The coal-to-methanol process is associated with relatively high
emissions, and considering variations in coal types, its carbon intensity 5.1.3. Refining and hydrogen-based decarbonization technologies
falls between 1.75 and 2.25 tCO2/t [79]. In the natural gas-to-methanol Green hydrogen can be used as a raw material substitute in refining,
process, natural gas is pre-reformed and then reformed to produce demonstrating high technical feasibility. The hydrogen consumption
syngas. The syngas is then adjusted to the required carbon-hydrogen processes in refining are predominantly hydrocracking and hydro­
ratio by releasing a portion of by-product hydrogen or introducing treating [71]. Hydrocracking is a process that converts heavy oils into
some CO2 [80]. Subsequently, it undergoes processes such as pressuri­ gases, gasoline, diesel, and other light oils [88]. Hydrotreating is the
zation, temperature-raising synthesis, and distillation to produce process of removing impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen from oil
methanol. products and saturating olefins and aromatics to improve the quality of
Compared with the coal-to-methanol process, the natural gas-to- the oil products [88]. The carbon intensity of traditional refining ranges
methanol process has a shorter flow path, fewer equipment re­ from 0.2 to 0.3 tCO2/t crude oil [49,72,73], with carbon emissions from
quirements, and simpler operation. However, because of incomplete hydrogen production accounting for approximately 30%–35 % of the
reactions and purge gas issues, the overall process still exhibits relatively total [49]. Green hydrogen can replace the gray hydrogen required in
high carbon intensity, falling between 0.5 and 0.7 tCO2/t [79]. More­ hydrocracking and hydrotreating, reducing process emissions [49]. This
over, both pathways have a hydrogen consumption intensity of substitution process requires minimal modifications to the existing
approximately 0.12 tH2/t41. Methanol can also be synthesized through equipment, making it highly technically feasible and avoiding asset
processes like biomass gasification, but its potential for large-scale stranding.
production is relatively limited.
Hydrogen can achieve decarbonization in methanol production 5.2. Economic analysis
through two primary pathways—process substitution and raw material
substitution—both of which have relatively high technical feasibility. Hydrogen-based decarbonization in China’s chemical industry is
With process substitution, because CO is typically converted to CO2 first expected to become gradually economical after 2035. In conjunction
through the water gas shift reaction before being further transformed with a carbon price exceeding $40/t and a green hydrogen price of
into methanol [81–83], many researchers have begun exploring the approximately $2500/t by 2035, the decarbonization pathway based on
direct conversion of CO2 and H2 into methanol [53]. Depending on the raw material substitution is projected to become gradually economically
source of CO2, this process has varying carbon emissions. If the carbon competitive around 2035. In contrast, decarbonization pathways based
source comes from CCS, in combination with green hydrogen, its carbon on process substitution may be required until after 2040 to achieve
emissions can reach net zero. If the carbon source is entirely from DAC economic competitiveness. Two key factors contributing to the

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Fig. 5. Process diagram of (a) ammonia, (b) methanol, and (c) hydrogen consumption in refining. The relevant process diagrams have been simplified to highlight
the hydrogen-related processes. The chemical equations in the figure represent the central processes associated with hydrogen production and utilization.

increasing economic competitiveness are the rising carbon price and the were calibrated within the assumptions, and the recalculated outcomes
reduction of green hydrogen costs Table 1. are presented in Fig. 6.
Consequently, the differences in assumptions about the above factors
have become the primary reason for the significant differences in the 5.2.1. Ammonia
future cost outlooks of different studies on green ammonia and green Given the impact of decreasing green hydrogen costs and increasing
methanol [15]. For comparison, this study provided outlooks on green carbon prices, green ammonia is expected to become more economically
hydrogen costs and carbon prices by 2050 based on assumptions derived competitive than fossil fuel-synthesized ammonia around 2035.
from selected literature (Table 2). The results from relevant research Furthermore, it is expected that by 2050, the cost of green ammonia

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Table 1 Natural gas-based methanol production may be more economically

Literature search terms. competitive because of its lower cost and carbon intensity, with meth­
Topic Terms anol costing approximately $300–400/t. However, there is limited dis­
cussion of this pathway in most studies [15,66], possibly because of the
a Current status of hydrogen in china and hydrogen and (production or
China (application or utilization)) relatively small share of natural gas-based methanol production in China
b Current status and development china and (ammonia or methanol or refining) [64] and its significant cost fluctuations [90].
trends of related industries and (development trend or future) Green methanol production costs are expected to reach $400–500/t
c Technical review (ammonia or methanol) and ((production [15,66] by 2050. Some studies may overlook the residual emissions
process)or (production technology))) or
(refining and hydrogen and (process or
from coal gasification in the pathway-coupled methanol production
technology) process [15], and they do not account for carbon costs in the absence of
d Economic outlook china and hydrogen and (chemical or ammonia CCS. This study made corresponding adjustments to address these issues.
or methanol or refining) and (cost or techno- Moreover, some studies [15] have projected the emission reduction
economic or economy)
costs of methanol production in 2050. The emission reduction costs for
e Roadmap outlook china and hydrogen and (chemical or ammonia
or methanol or refining) and (production or the coupled pathway range from $-5 to 50/t, while that for the synthesis
application or utilization) and (path or of CO2 and green hydrogen range from $25 to 125/t, exhibiting
pathway or roadmap or outlook or perspective) considerable uncertainty.

5.2.3. Refining
Table 2 Similar to the green transformation process of hydrogen production,
Outlook on green hydrogen cost and carbon price. by around 2035, green hydrogen and blue hydrogen are expected to
2030 2040 2050 become more competitive in the refining sector, and if by-product
hydrogen is not considered, by 2040, green hydrogen is projected to
Low High Low High Low High
become the most economical hydrogen source in the refining sector.
Carbon Price ($/t) 20 35 45 150 100 250 Because of reforming and coking in the petrochemical refining sector,
Green H2 Cost ($/t) 3000 4000 2000 3000 1500 2500
the by-product hydrogen generated from both processes can be used
Source [15,17,61,66,76,89]: locally for cracking and refining, making it more economically advan­
tageous. Therefore, by-product hydrogen accounts for approximately 50
could approach the current cost of ammonia. The cost of ammonia from % of the total hydrogen consumption in the petrochemical refining
fossil fuels ranges from $300/t to $400/t, whereas green ammonia sector in China [40,91].
produced through green hydrogen is $800–1000/t [15,58,61,89]. The Many studies often overlook the above characteristics and equate the
anticipated decrease in green hydrogen costs could lead to a nearly 30 % transition of hydrogen application structure in the refining sector with
reduction in green ammonia costs by 2030, aligning with the expecta­ the transition of hydrogen production structure, neglecting the signifi­
tions of most studies [15,27,61]. However, some research suggests a cant role of by-product hydrogen in refining in the short term [72,76],
more optimistic outlook for reducing China’s future electricity costs, which may lead to an overestimation of decarbonization costs in the
potentially making the cost of producing green ammonia the lowest short term. This study distinguished between the cost trends of
globally, even falling below $600/t [89]. coal-based hydrogen, by-product hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and gray
Similarly to most studies [15,50], if the carbon price in 2035 can hydrogen, considering that before 2035, by-product hydrogen will be a
reach $40/t, in combination with green hydrogen prices falling below favorable choice that balances low cost and low emissions.
$2500/t, green ammonia is expected to become more economically By approximately 2035, with a carbon price of $35/t, green and blue
competitive than fossil fuel-synthesized ammonia around 2035. If the hydrogen are expected to become more competitive in the refining
green hydrogen price can drop to below $2000/t by 2050, it is antici­ sector, similar to the hydrogen production structure transition [10,15,
pated that the cost of green ammonia could be reduced to below $500/t 17,27]. After 2040, if by-product hydrogen is not considered, green
[15,58], potentially even lower than the current cost of fossil hydrogen will gradually become the most economical source of
fuel-synthesized ammonia [89]. Some studies suggest that the emissions hydrogen in the refining industry. The cost of green hydrogen used by
reduction cost of producing green ammonia in 2050 could range from refineries in 2050 is expected to be lower than the cost of hydrogen used
$-6/t to $50/t [15]. The cost of emissions reduction is negative because in 2020 [10,27]. Furthermore, some studies believe that the emission
of the relatively low cost of producing green ammonia in conjunction reduction cost of green hydrogen refining will gradually decrease from
with higher carbon prices. In such cases, producing green ammonia more than $150/t in 2030 to $60/t in 2050 [49].
could result in lower overall system costs.
5.3. Outlook on roadmaps
5.2.2. Methanol
By 2035, pathway-coupled methanol may become relatively In 2030, production based on green hydrogen will only occupy
economically competitive compared with coal-based methanol. approximately 10 % market share. However, this proportion may rise to
Furthermore, by 2050, the cost of green methanol and pathway-coupled approximately 60 % around 2050, and the demand for hydrogen in these
methanol may be comparable but still approximately 1.5 times higher industries in 2050 may rise to 35–50 Mt, reducing hydrogen-related
than current methanol costs. The cost of fossil fuel-based methanol is carbon emissions to less than 10 % of 2020 levels. Fig. 7 illustrates the
$250–300/t [15,66], whereas the cost of pathway-coupled methanol is development paths of key sectors and associated carbon emissions.
approximately $600/t [15]. In comparison, the cost of producing green Furthermore, by comparing real-world deployment and research results,
methanol through CO2 and green hydrogen synthesis falls between we discovered the serious homogeneity problem of current green
$1000–1500/t [15,66]. hydrogen chemical projects, emphasizing the need to strengthen top-
Most studies [15,25,66] suggest that technological advancements level design in the policy formulation process.
could lead to cost reductions of over 30 % for both alternative pathways
by 2030. If the carbon price reaches $70/t by 2040 and green hydrogen 5.3.1. Ammonia
prices drop below $2500/t, pathway-coupled methanol might become By 2050, nearly 65 % of ammonia is expected to transition to green
the most economically competitive method in the short term [66]. ammonia, potentially resulting in a hydrogen consumption of 15–22 Mt.
Hydrogen-related emissions in the ammonia sector are expected to

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Fig. 6. Outlook on the cost of different technologies: (a) ammonia, (b) methanol, and (c) hydrogen costs for refining. The patterned bars represent the actual costs in
2020, while the solid bars indicate the range of future costs for each technology, with their uncertainty primarily arising from the uncertainty in carbon prices and
green hydrogen prices. The types of technologies selected for evaluation considered the current application status and future development potential. For instance, the
technology of synthesizing methanol directly from CO2 and H2 was considered for methanol production. The by-products of hydrogen, which is mainstream in the
short term, were considered for hydrogen used in refining. Owing to the complexity of final products in the refining sector, this study only evaluated the hydrogen
cost for refining rather than refined products. Given significant uncertainty, the green hydrogen costs for 2030 and 2050 were only hypothetically considered and
included in the assessment framework in Table 1, represented by deep green and light green bars in (c). The above results were recalibrated. First, the costs were
calculated based on the assumptions from different literature. Among them, the carbon price and green hydrogen cost used in each study are calibrated to the
assumptions in Table 2 To enhance comparability. Second, the raw material costs were calibrated based on the conditions in 2020. Finally, recalibration was
conducted under various assumptions, as presented in Table 1. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web
version of this article.)

decrease to less than 10 % of the 2020 levels. Comparing the results of the next decade are pessimistic about the share of green ammonia. By
multiple studies [4,10,15,16,27,58,61,89], a relatively consistent 2050, depending on different scenarios, the share of green ammonia is
conclusion is that by 2030, green ammonia is expected to represent only expected to reach approximately 65 % [15,16], with only several studies
0%–20 % of the total ammonia production. Because of relatively high suggesting a share below 30 % [4].
costs in the short term, most cost-optimal planning models [4,16,18] for The rest of the fossil fuel-based ammonia production will likely be

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Fig. 7. Transition roadmaps of (a) ammonia, (b) methanol, and (c) hydrogen used in the refining industry. The solid bars represent the market share of the cor­
responding production method, obtained by averaging the results of many studies. The green striped bars represent the range of estimates from various studies
regarding the share of green hydrogen-related technologies, with the highest and lowest values removed. (d) Estimation of hydrogen demand. The solid columns not
covered by the green stripes represent the changes in total hydrogen demand for the three sectors, while those covered by the green stripes represent the changes in
green hydrogen demand. The results were calculated based on the paths depicted in Figures (a)–(c), combined with demand outlook as depicted in Fig. 4. (e) Trends
in emissions associated with hydrogen. The error bars at the top of the column chart represent the uncertainty associated with the emissions. The results were
calculated based on the roadmaps depicted in Figures (a)–(c) combined with the demand projections Fig. 4, and the uncertainty arises from the uncertainty in
production amount. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

equipped with CCS almost entirely. In conjunction with the ammonia approximately 80 % in PM2.5, SO2, and NOx emissions [56].
demand of 85–120 Mt in 2050, it will result in a hydrogen consumption Compared with methanol and refining, CCS is more extensively
of 15–22 Mt (of which 9–13 Mt will be green hydrogen), more than 1.5 applied in the ammonia sector, particularly by 2030—primarily because
times that of 2020. The decarbonization scale will exceed 180 Mt, and coal-based and natural gas-based hydrogen represent a higher propor­
industry carbon emissions will decrease to approximately 10 % of the tion in the hydrogen structure used for ammonia production. Before
2020 levels. Some studies suggest that the transition also brings signif­ green hydrogen can become economical enough, blue hydrogen will be
icant environmental benefits, resulting in an additional reduction of the best choice because of its relatively low cost and high utilization of

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existing assets. It will also significantly reduce ammonia emissions by economic and economic factors. This study reviewed the real-world
2030 to approximately half of the 2020 levels. deployment status of relevant projects. As of August 2023, the green
hydrogen chemical projects in the stages of “record,” “bidding,” “con­
5.3.2. Methanol tract,” “planning,” and “in operation” have reached a cumulative ca­
By 2050, nearly 55 % of methanol is expected to become green pacity of over 10 Mt. Most of these projects are expected to be
methanol, which could result in hydrogen consumption of 11–23 Mt (of implemented around 2025 and can be considered as approximate actual
which nearly 80 % is green hydrogen) and CO2 consumption of 60–135 capacities in 2025.
Mt. Carbon emissions related to the methanol sector and hydrogen are The production capacity for green ammonia and green methanol
expected to decrease to approximately 10 % of the levels in 2020. Most may reach over 7 and 4 Mt (see Fig. 8). In contrast, the green hydrogen
studies [4,10,15,16,18,27,66] suggest that by 2030, green methanol production capacity for refining is only 0.02 Mt per year. Although there
may account for 0%–14 % of the total share, with over 30 % of are expected increases in green hydrogen refining projects by 2025, it
coal-based methanol coupled with green hydrogen or CCS [15]. By may still be challenging to exceed 0.1 Mt/year. According to our cal­
2050, green methanol is projected to reach nearly 55 %, although there culations, it is projected that by 2025, the estimated capacities may
is considerable variation in assessments across different studies, ranging achieve 130 %, 40 %, and 7 % of the predicted capacities for 2030. The
from 17 % to 75 % [4,15,16]. Moreover, the proportion of methanol predictions of most cost-optimized models [4,16,18] differ significantly
produced through pathway coupling or equipped with CCS may exceed from reality, highlighting that economic feasibility is not the sole
40 % [15,16,18]. Given the 70–160 Mt methanol demand in 2050, it is determining factor in shaping the transition pathways. We believe
estimated that green methanol will produce approximately 7–16 Mt of real-world deployment pathways result from a compromise between
green hydrogen and consume 55–120 Mt of CO15 2 . non-economic and economic factors.
Methanol production based on pathway coupling will also consume On the non-economic side, because of government directives and
1.5–3.5 Mt of green hydrogen, resulting in a total hydrogen demand for industrial policies, many governments must deploy a large number of
methanol production that could be 1.4–3.2 times higher than that of demonstration projects in the early stages of transition despite signifi­
2020, leading to a reduction in overall carbon emissions from the cantly increasing the overall system cost. On the economic side, the cost
methanol production process to below 10 % of the 2020 levels. How­ of green methanol is four to five times that of the traditional pathway,
ever, most studies [15] overlook the upper limit of green hydrogen and refining remains a critical sector for by-product hydrogen con­
substitution and residual emission issues caused by gasification in the sumption, while the cost of green ammonia is less than three times that
pathway-coupled methanol production, which may lead to an over­ of the traditional pathway. This cost advantage makes green ammonia
estimation of the scale of green hydrogen application and an underes­ the optimal choice for local governments to fulfill their tasks.
timation of CCS application. If methanol is used as an energy carrier, the Given the potential low point in China’s ammonia demand between
issue of carbon capture at its endpoint still must be addressed. However, 2030 and 2040, the significant investments by local governments in
if the carbon source for green methanol comes from DAC, then from a green ammonia may lead to further overcapacity in ammonia produc­
lifecycle perspective, its production and use would still result in net-zero tion. At the same time, since future green methanol and ammonia may
emissions. be dominated in the northwest in China, another concern that needs
attention is water scarcity [96]. However, this issue does not seem to be
5.3.3. Refining that serious. On the one hand, recent studies indicated that electrolyzing
In 2050, it is expected that approximately 6–7.5 Mt of hydrogen will water to produce hydrogen will not significantly increase water use,
be used in the refining sector, of which over 60 % will be green even considering the entire life cycle, the increased water demand in
hydrogen, which will result in a reduction of over 60 Mt of CO2 China may be less than 2 % in 2050 [97]. On the other hand, the
hydrogen-related emissions compared with 2020. Because of the ad­ development of green hydrogen chemical industry is anticipated to
vantages of lower emissions and lower costs, the by-product hydrogen is curtail the demand for coal chemical industry, and the water con­
expected to continue playing a significant role in the foreseeable future sumption of the latter is more than 33 % higher than that of the former
[92], with its share still expected to be over 25 % by 2030. However, as [98]. Given the current production of methanol and ammonia is also in
the downstream steel demand in the coking sub-sector gradually peaks the northwest region in China [99], the transition to green hydrogen
and low-carbon reduction processes in the steelmaking industry emerge chemical industry may lead to water conservation instead of water
[93], the production of by-product hydrogen will rapidly decline after scarcity [98]. Furthermore, transporting hydrogen to the southeast and
2030 [17]. This implies that in the long-term perspective, the decar­ conducting chemical synthesis in coastal areas may be a new solution
bonization of the refining sector will still rely on green hydrogen. [100], which may further alleviate water scarcity.
Some studies suggest that by 2035, green hydrogen could become
economically competitive [7,27], with the potential for over 1.2 Mt of 6. Discussion and suggestions
renewable hydrogen used in the refining sector [25]. By 2050, green
hydrogen can occupy 50%–80 % of the market share, while gray 6.1. Suggestions for researchers
hydrogen will be largely phased out [17]. This implies that approxi­
mately 4.5 Mt of green hydrogen and 2 Mt of blue hydrogen can be used Many researchers have conducted studies on the potential of
in China’s refining sector. Our calculations indicated that, compared hydrogen to decarbonize China’s chemical industry, but the validity of
with 2020, hydrogen-related emissions could be reduced by over 60 Mt, related research needs further improvement. First, our understanding of
a result consistent with many other studies [72,94]. Finally, some technical details needs to be enhanced. Some studies overlook technical
studies [95] suggest that, with the trends of “refining towards issues in the hydrogen substitution process, such as neglecting the upper
refining-chemical integration,” the application depth of green hydrogen limit of green hydrogen substitution and residual emissions in the
produced by refineries will be further accelerated. pathway-coupled methanol production. Thus, the potential of green
hydrogen may be overestimated and the scale of CCS application
5.3.4. Real-world deployment status of the green hydrogen chemical underestimated.
industry in China Second, the specificity and systematic approach to different analyzed
Compared with the current actual deployment, the deployment of sectors should be increased. There is a need to increase attention to
green ammonia production capacity far exceeds research expectations. sectoral heterogeneity, such as recognizing the significant role of in­
In contrast, the production capacity of green hydrogen refining is much dustrial by-product hydrogen in refining [71]. However, there is also a
lower than expected in research because of a combination of non- need to enhance consideration of sectoral systemic effects, such as the

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Fig. 8. Real-world deployment status of the green hydrogen chemical industry in China (as of August 2023). The provinces highlighted with a green background
color are those where green hydrogen chemical projects have been deployed. In the pie chart, the area represents the total production capacity of the relevant
projects, and the sectors within the chart represent the respective shares of capacity for different projects. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure
legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

impact of steel industry transformation on the potential of by-product the efficiency of the transition.
hydrogen. The concept of EIC that we emphasize is a preliminary
attempt to enhance the specificity and systematicness of analyzed sec­ 7. Conclusion
tors, and expanding it into a complete industry network is the direction
for future development. This study focused on three crucial chemical sectors: ammonia,
Third, it is advisable to integrate appropriate non-economic factors methanol, and refining. It provided an EIC perspective on the develop­
into planning methods. Given that the results of many cost-optimization ment trends, assessing the potential of hydrogen in the decarbonization
model-based studies [4,16,18] often diverge significantly from reality, process of the chemical industry from three dimensions: technology,
some research has incorporated non-economic factors such as public economics, and roadmap. Throughout this process, extensive cross-
preferences into consideration using methods, including discrete choice literature recalibrations were conducted, and the key results were
models and agent-based models [17,62]. The validity of such ap­ summarized in Supplementary Table 1. A comprehensive evaluation of
proaches also needs further improvement in the future. the development roadmap for relevant technologies is presented in
Table 3.
This study suggests that the rapid transition of the hydrogen pro­
6.2. Suggestions for policymakers duction structure and the increasing market size of downstream chem­
ical industries create a vast space for the application of green hydrogen
This study revealed the significant potential of hydrogen in decar­ in the chemical industry. The cost of green hydrogen is expected to
bonizing the chemical industry. However, the real-world deployment of decrease significantly in the next 15 years, becoming economically
transition in the chemical industry will require effective policy imple­ competitive by 2035 and a primary hydrogen source by 2050.
mentation at the national and industry levels. First, there is a need to Furthermore, the future demand for hydrogen in the three major utili­
increase technological investment. Most studies maintain an optimistic zation sectors of ammonia, methanol, and refining is expected to remain
outlook on the cost reduction of green hydrogen technologies in the near stable or even increase. By 2050, hydrogen demand is projected to reach
future, but this requires significant technological investment to drive 1.5 times that of 2020, providing ample opportunities for applying green
innovation. Policymakers should consider increasing technological in­ hydrogen in the chemical industry.
vestment to expedite the development of clean hydrogen production and The green hydrogen chemical industry has a relatively high technical
application projects. feasibility, and these technologies are expected to become economically
Second, there should be a focus on top-level planning. By examining viable by 2035, which will result in reducing hydrogen-related emis­
the actual deployment of relevant projects, we have identified issues sions to approximately 10 % of the 2020 levels by 2050. Among the
such as simultaneous commissioning of projects and a high degree of three sectors, technologies based on raw material substitution have a
project homogenization. The central government should strengthen top- higher feasibility, while technologies based on process substitution need
level planning, considering regional advantages and preventing local further maturity, although some related projects are already underway.
governments from rushing into projects simultaneously. With a carbon price reaching $40/t or more and green hydrogen
Third, it is essential to accelerate the integration of the petrochem­ prices approximately $2500/t by 2035, technologies based on raw ma­
ical and chemical industries into carbon markets. A substantial body of terial substitution are expected to gradually become economically
research indicates that higher carbon prices drive the transition. Pro­ competitive by 2035, while technologies based on process substitution
moting a deep integration between the petrochemical and chemical may become economically competitive after 2040. This will lead to the
industries and carbon markets will facilitate the transmission of carbon green hydrogen chemical industry taking a dominant position by 2050,
prices throughout the EIC. This will enable a transition based on mini­ with hydrogen consumption in these sectors exceeding 40 Mt, of which
mizing marginal costs rather than top-down policy planning, enhancing

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Table 3
Development pathways for green hydrogen chemical industry technologies.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial China towards carbon neutrality in 2060 using methanol and ammonia as energy
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interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
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