Public Policy Analysis

Dr. Xun Wu
[email protected]
Youth Unemployment

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Government AI Readiness

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Diabetes is one of the biggest challenge for Brunei’s healthcare
and economy. The International Diabetes Foundation reported
that 11.1% of diabetes cases in the Sultanate are among adults
aged 20 to 75, exceeding the global average of 9.1%.
Electricity Consumption

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Key Questions in Studying
Public Policy

 Is there a problem?
 What is the problem?
 Is it a policy problem?
 What should be done?
 What can be done?
 What can be done now?

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 What is Policy Problem?
 A policy problem refers to a situation or issue that requires
attention and action from a government or organization. It's a
condition or situation that produces needs or dissatisfaction
among people for which relief or redress by a governmental
action is sought.
 Policy problems can be complex and multifaceted, often
involving social, economic, and political dimensions.
 What is Public Policy?
♦ Public policy refers to the actions or inactions taken by
governmental bodies in response to public issues.
♦ It's a course of action created and/or enacted, typically by a
government, in response to public, real-world problems.
♦ Public policy can take the form of laws, regulations, decisions,
or actions, and is typically characterized by its goals, timeline,
and the entities involved in its formulation and implementation.
♦ Examples:
♦ The Brunei government's Wawasan 2035 (Vision 2035)
♦ Initiatives to promote renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and protect
and restore natural ecosystems
 What is Policy Analysis?

♦ Policy analysis is a form of applied research

carried out to acquire a deeper understanding of
public policy issues and to bring out better
solutions (Quade).
♦ Policy analysis is a client-oriented advice relevant
to public decisions and informed by social value
(Weimer and Vinning)
 Key Features of Policy Analysis
♦ Rigorous search for causes and consequences of
policy issues (evidence-based)
♦ Systematic comparison of policy options
♦ Action orientation
♦ Focusing on the needs and constraints of agencies
involved
The Process of Policy Analysis

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

Defining Policy Problem

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

“Policy analysts seem to fail more often
because they solve the wrong problem than
because they get the wrong solution to the
right problem.”
Quade, 1982

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What is Policy Problem?

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 Traffic
congestion

More
people buy
Lack of road
cars and
infrastructure
people
drive more

Congestion
Building
eased in the
more road
short run

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Why Do People Have Different
Opinions on Policy Issues?
 Ideologies
 Official and unofficial roles in policy
process
 Organizational interests
 Personal interests
 Personal experience and knowledge
 Access to information

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How Do Problems Emerge?
Crises or disasters
Aspiration of political leaders
Complains from the public
Failures in achieving goals
Changes in indicators
Feedback from the implementation of existing policies

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 Case Discussion

What is the problem?

Is it a policy problem? Why or why not?
What kind of policy problem is it? What is your
evidence?
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Determining the Magnitude of the
Problem
What is the problem?
Is it a policy problem?
How serious is the problem?
How widespread is the problem?
How urgent is the problem?
Can the problem be solved in the given time frame?

Critical constraint to keep in mind: there are limited resources

at any given time to tackle many policy problem confronting
the government

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Causal Analysis
The idea here is to diagnose causes of a problem
condition and specify a set of variables and their
causal interrelations so as to explain or account
for a given condition.
Modeling the problem:
Developing models that relate the conditions of
concern to variables that can be manipulated by
public policy
Role of policy research and experts in providing
causal information for problem selection

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 Types of Causes
Possible causes (speculation)
Plausible causes (reason)
Credible causes (evidence)
Major causes
Actionable causes

The cause of the overcrowded prisons is that the

mandatory five-year sentence is racially biased

Possible?
Plausible?
Credible?
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 Fishbone Analysis
(Ishikawa diagram)
♦ Components :
- Head of a Fish : Problem or Effect
- Horizontal Branches : Causes
- Sub – branches : Reason
- Examples of Categorization
- Machine, Manpower, Method etc.
- Service categories : People, Process, Policies, Procedures etc.

Material Machine
Measurement cause
cause
reason
Problem
cause cause
reason

Management Method Man Power 21

An Example of Application of
Fishbone Analysis
EXHIBIT 5
FISHBONE DIAGRAM (CAUSE & EFFECT DIAGRAM) FOR OUTAGES CAUSED BY VEHICLES

MAN
High Speed
Failure to Yield
Incorrect Sag
Driver Fell Asleep
Construction Equipment
l

Forced Off Road

ho
s

d
ug

co
re
Dr

Al
Ti

OUTAGES CAUSED
BY VEHICLES
Dark Pole on Outside of Curve

Rain Clearance Too Low

Heavy Traffic

Wet Surface
Pole Too Close to Road

ENVIRONMENT METHODS

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 An Example of Application of
Fishbone Analysis
Training Access Finance future
Clarity of
budget
Wheelchair provisions
access limited
Need for Unreliable Reliance on
Need to special equipment estimates of voluntary
train up & materials costs agencies
mainstream
staff Stairs limit
access to High costs of
facilities special medical
& social support Problem in including
children with
special needs in
Limited No. Specialist mainstream extended
of specially
Low awareness qualified staff
transport services
required
and tolerance
among
mainstream Staff work- Dependent on
Higher staff life balance existing LA
to pupil ratio issues contract
Bullying
Need to
Attitudes Capacity Transport adjust travel
times

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 The Problem Tree
Effects of the Focal Problem
Higher-level
Effects

Direct
Effects

Focal Problem

Immediate
and Direct
Causes

Root
Causes
Causes of the Focal Problem

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An Example of Problem Tree

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Identifying Policy Alternatives

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

Architectural Design
Engineering Design
How to Avoid Costly Mistakes in
Policy Design?
Three Types of Policy Analysis
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3
1) Analysis of problem 1) Analysis of problem 1) Analysis of problem
gives rise to list of gives rise to a list of gives rise to a list of
policy problems or root policy problems or root policy problems or root
causes; causes; causes;
2) Corresponding to each 2) One policy solution is 2) One policy solution is
problem or root cause proposed as the solution; proposed as the solution;
identified, one or more 3) Discussion on how the 3) Discussion of the
policy solutions are proposed policy solution advantages and
proposed would solve the disadvantages of the
3) Analysis ends with a problems identified solution proposed;
(long) list of policy 4) Discussion of strategies
recommendation to overcome the
disadvantages of the
solution proposed
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Problems with Such “Policy Analysis”
Most people would like to feel optimistic about
proposed policy changes with regard to policy
objectives, but is such optimism justifiable?
There is a tendency to propose a long list of
policy recommendations without any analysis of
practical implications
Little is known about relative merits of different
policy alternatives and trade-offs involved in
each of them

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The Fourth Type of Policy Analysis
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4
1) Analysis of 1) Analysis of 1) Analysis of 1) Analysis of
problem gives problem gives problem gives problem leads to
rise to list of rise to a list of rise to a list of a clear definition
policy problems policy problems policy problems of policy
or root causes; or root causes; or root causes; problem
2) Corresponding 2) One policy 2) One policy 2) A list of policy
to each problem solution is solution is options are
or root cause proposed as the proposed as the identified;
identified, one solution; solution; 3) Analysis and
or more policy 3) Discussion on 3) Discussion of comparison of
solutions are how the the advantages the policy
proposed proposed policy and options based on
3) Analysis ends solution would disadvantages of a set of criteria
with a (long) list solve the the solution 4) A particular
of policy problems proposed; policy option or
recommendation identified 4) Discussion of a combination of
strategies to the policy
overcome the options is
disadvantages of recommended
the solution
proposed
Identify Policy Options

♦ A key feature of policy analysis is to compare among

different options instead of simply arguing for a single
one
– One-sided advocacy of a given policy can conceal important
counter-arguments; an enthusiastic proponent of a given
policy will often argue to for one proposal in absolute rather
than relative terms

♦ Policy options are potential alternative solutions to a

policy problem
 Case Discussion

How to solve the problem?

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How to Identify Policy Alternatives?
♦ Including “status quo” as an alternative unless it is
clearly infeasible
♦ Working with “given” alternatives
♦ Scanning the middle ground between two
polarizing alternatives
♦ Searching for alternatives by modifying existing
solutions
♦ “Borrowing” and “tinkering” policy solutions
implemented elsewhere for similar policy problem
♦ Looking for alternatives from manipulable
variables derived from causal analysis in problem
analysis stage
Status Quo as a Policy Option
♦ One option is rejecting all new proposals and
doing nothing new—sticking with the status quo
is almost always an option for policymakers.
♦ In practice, however, little time is usually spent on
a serious analysis of the status quo option.
– The status quo alternative is often regarded as
obviously unacceptable
Misperceptions about the “Status Quo”
Option
♦ The status quo option means doing absolutely
nothing
♦ The status quo option implies that existing
condition would remain unchanged
♦ The consequences of status quo option can be
assessed easily
“Given” Options
♦ The analyst is not asked to generate new alternatives
creatively, but rather to evaluate or compare available
proposals.
♦ This usually occurs when
– Policy-makers or clients have already committed to
certain alternatives
– Controversy or debate has brought certain alternatives
to the fore.
♦ It is still important to at least include status quo as an
alternative even if the analyst is asked to consider only one
policy proposal
♦ The “given” alternatives are often too broad and vague to
allow for estimation of their effects and the analyst might
have more room to operate than typically assumed
Scanning the Middle Ground of Two
Polarizing options: An Example
♦ Two given alternative policies towards online
gambling: Harsh prohibition and sweeping
legalization
♦ What are policy alternatives in between the two
extremes?
Online Gambling

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Incremental Model
♦ Incremental model views public policies as continuation of
past government activities with only minor modifications.
The constraints of time, intelligence and costs prevent
policy makers from identifying the full range of policy
alternatives
♦ Key components of incremental model:
– Decision maker only considers alternatives which differ
incrementally from existing policies
– Only a limited number of important consequences for alternatives
are evaluated
– The problem confronting decision-maker is continuously redefined.
– There may not a single “best” solution for a given problem
– Incremental decision-making is essentially remedial
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44
Allocation of Primary School Places for Primary
One Pupils in Singapore

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Policy Options

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“Borrowing” and “Tinkering”

♦ “Borrowing” means searching for solutions by

examining how analogous problems were solved
in the past or elsewhere
– Review literature
– Survey “best practices”
♦ “Tinkering” means making incremental
adjustments based on local and present conditions
Traffic Congestion in Beijing
 Identifying Policy Alternatives From
Problem Tree
Higher-level Lack of respect for
GoS travel
Transit of illegal
immigrants/
Inappropriate role of
immigration staff (e.g.
Effects documents emigrants policing exit permits)

Direct Delayed or
inaccurate GoS
Effects travel documents

Focal Difficulty in processing

Problem travel documentation

Immediate Backlog of
Slow operating Preferential
and Direct procedures
applications for
treatment of clients
permits
Causes

Root Manual record

Poor
communication Staff shortages
Poor customer Poor priority
Poor
supervision
Causes systems
of requirements
service setting
practices

Policy Replace them with

automated systems
Alternatives Increase the staff Conform to ISO14000
size by 20%
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Selecting Criteria

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

Importance of Criteria in Policy Analysis

Scientific questions are “why?” questions.

Technological questions are questions of
“How?” or “How best?” where the criteria for
“best” are given. But the simplest policy
question is a question of what is best, where
the criteria of “best” are multiple and
conflicting and relative weight is just what
has to be determined.
Vickers, 1971

Why are there often “multiple and conflicting”

criteria in policy analysis?
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Focal Goals vs. Side Effects
♦ There is often one focal goal (explicit or implicit) for a
particular policy proposal, such as “increasing FDI”,
“reducing poverty rate”, or “controlling the spread of
infectious diseases.”
♦ But a policy alternative, if implemented, may often result
in many other consequences beyond the attainment of the
focal goal, and some of them are “undesirable but
anticipatable” side effects
– For example, policies aiming at “increasing FDI” may
have impacts on “employment”, “tax revenue” and
“pollution”

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 Case Discussion

How do we assess the relative merits of

different policy options to solve the problem?

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 Inputs or Resource Requirements

♦ Besides outcomes or outputs, policy alternatives may differ

from each other in the use of resources or inputs, such as
human resource and financial resources, which can be used
to solve problems in other areas
♦ Cost is the often the main reason why the choice has to be
made among several good policy alternatives
♦ While politicians love to use the phrase “at all costs” or “by
all means”, there are only few circumstances where there is
no limit on costs for policy intervention.

What would happen if inputs required to implement policy options are

completely ignored?

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 Political and Institutional Consideration

♦ A technically sound policy proposal may not be

politically acceptable because of too much
opposition
♦ Policy ideas that sound great in theory may fail
under conditions of actual field implementation.
– “Many public policies are adopted with absolutely no
knowledge of the particular actions that will be
necessary to implement them” (Steiss and Daneke,
1980)

What would happen if political obstacles and institutional

constraints for policy options are completely ignored?

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 Types of Criteria
♦ Criteria concerning policy outcomes or
consequences
– Effectiveness (focal goal)
– Efficiency
– Criteria focusing on consequences that are beyond the
attainment of the focal goal
– Equity
♦ Criteria concerning inputs for implementing the
policy
– Cost (human resources, financial resources and others)
♦ Criteria concerning political and institutional
consideration
– Political acceptability
– Administrative operability

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Efficiency
♦ Different definitions of efficiency:
– Getting the most out of a given input
– Achieving an objective with the lowest costs
– Maximize the net benefits (benefits minus costs) for the
society
♦ Efficiency is a comparative idea—it compares input
and output, effort and effectiveness, expenditure and
income, or cost and resulting benefit
♦ Confusion between effectiveness and efficiency;
confusion between cost and efficiency

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 Equity (Fairness)
♦ Distributions are at the heart of public policy
controversies. Much of the policy debates is about
“who gets what, when and how.”
♦ People generally agree that government policies
should be equitable or Fair
♦ Most people approve of equity as a desirable
attribute of policy intervention, but it can be hard
to agree on what exactly is equitable
– The minimum wage results in higher wage rates for
some people, unemployment for others, and higher costs
for consumers—are its effects on all groups fair?
– Is it equitable to tax families without children to finance
public schools?

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Effectiveness
♦ Effectiveness refers to whether a given alternative
results in alleviating of policy problem or in
achieving valued outcome (effect)
♦ Examples: if nuclear generators produce more
electricity than solar collection devices, the former
are regarded as more effective because it provides
more of a valued outcome
♦ It is often directly related to the focal goal
♦ “Effectiveness” involves specific measure(s)
corresponding to the problem problem or valued
outcome.
– How to measure “effectiveness” of policy alternatives
aiming at reducing unemployment rate? 61
Cost
♦ Nearly every public action involves the use of
resources—tax dollars or other types of resources
that must be diverted from other uses
♦ Some common pitfalls in treating cost
– Ignoring costs altogether
– Identifying and counting only those costs that are
monetarizable
– Ignoring costs when they fall to people or governments
outside the client’s concern
– Ignoring indirect costs

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Quantitative vs. Qualitative Measures

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Political Acceptability
♦ Political unacceptability is a combination of
two things: too much opposition and /or too
little support
♦ Political acceptability criterion deals with
beliefs, motives, and power of key actors or
key interest groups.
♦ Do not take a static view of unacceptability
– If my favorite policy solution doesn’t look
acceptable under current conditions, what would it
take to change that?

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Administrative Operability
♦ Administrative feasibility focuses on whether
or not the existing administrative system is
capable of delivering the policy or program in
consideration
♦ Some specific dimensions include authority,
institutional commitment, capacity and
organizational support.

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 Robustness
♦ Policy ideas that sound great in theory often fail
under conditions of actual field implementation.
– Long delays
– Capture of policy benefits
– Excessive administrative costs
♦ Robust policy can do well enough even if the
implementation process does not go very
smoothly.

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Projecting the Outcomes

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

Project the Outcomes
♦ Project the outcomes is to assess the impacts of
each alternative based on each criteria.
♦ The most technical step in policy analysis
♦ Projecting outcomes often requires you to think
not just about the general direction, but also
magnitude.

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Practical Difficulties
Projecting the outcomes is about the future, not
about the past or the present, but we can never
really be certain about how the future will unfold.
Projecting the outcomes also involves prediction
of responses of individuals or organizations to
proposed policy changes
“Project the outcomes” is often another way of
saying “be realistic.” Most people prefer
optimism.
How to Compare Different Policy
Alternatives?

Projections
Alternatives Criteria • Outcomes of
• Alternative 1 • Criterion1 Alternative 1
• Alternative 2 • Criterion 2 • Outcomes of
• Alternative 3 • Criterion 3 Alternative 2
• Outcomes of
Alternative 3

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Approaches and Techniques in
Projecting Outcomes
APPROACH APPROPRIATE TECHNIQUES

Direct Calculation Simple mathematic calculation

Extrapolation Classical time-series analysis

Linear trend estimation
Theoretical forecasting Causal modeling
Regression analysis
Simulation
Point and interval estimation
Correlation analysis
Judgmental forecasting Delphi
Stakeholder analysis
Political mapping
Forward mapping
Backward mapping
Extrapolation
♦ Extrapolation uses the past to predict the future,
assuming there are stable patterns.
♦ Extrapolation relies on time-series analysis
♦ Extrapolation is useful for conducting a baseline
analysis, showing what is expected if the status
quo or “business as usual” alternative is adopted.
It is relatively low-cost
♦ Extrapolation can be accurate when 1) past
observed patterns will persist into the future; 2)
past variations will recur regularly in the future; 3)
trends are measured validly and reliably.
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An Example of Trend Extrapolation

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 Model
♦ To choose among alternative policies in terms of their
consequences we need to predict those consequences; thus we
need to be able to related the choice of policies, as a cause, to its
effects.
♦ Models identify important variables and specify the nature of the
linkages among them. The model is used to predict outcomes
when one or more of the variables are changed.
♦ Policy model expresses the relationship between the policy
variable and certain measure of policy outcomes
♦ There should be some theoretical or empirical basis for models

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Policy Model
♦ Policy models may be expressed in words, in physical
dimensions (e.g., architectural models), or in numerical
form.
♦ The expression of a policy model may range from simple
and highly approximate verbal statement to a set of
mathematical equation or elaborate computer program.
– “Deficit spending causes inflation”
– Q (quantity in demand)=a-b*P (price)
– CGE model to study fiscal spending
♦ Policy models often depend on assumptions on human
behavior
♦ Policy models also often depend on assumptions about
future conditions

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Economic Model and Policy Analysis:
An Example
 Demand for a product: Q＝40－4P
 Assume P＝$2； Q＝32
 Under a policy alternative, sales tax of 25% will be
introduced for the product
P＝2＋2＊25％＝$2.5
 Demand predicted after the introduction of the sales tax:
Q＝30

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Electricity Tariff in Brunei
To Project How per capita electricity
consumption might change
responding to changes in tariff

Electricity Tariff Per capita consumption

Existing tariff 3647 KWH
Tariff reduced by 50% ?
Tariff increased by 50% ?
Tariff Increased by 100% ?
Model of Yellow River in China

The length of the model is 1.6 km.

Stakeholder Analysis
♦ (A broad definition) A stakeholder is an individual or
group that makes a difference, or that can affect or be
affected by a policy
♦ Types of Stakeholder in Stakeholder Analysis
– The actor or group that can damage or weaken the authority
or political support for decision-makers or their organizations
– The actor or group that is in a position to enhance decision-
makers’ authority and (or) strengthen implementing agencies
– The actor or group that is capable of influencing the direction
or mix of implementing organizations’ activities

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Stakeholder Analysis Matrix

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Political Mapping
♦ Political mapping is a tool for organizing information
about the political landscape in an illustrative way.
♦ The tool can illustrate the distribution and nature of
support or opposition to government with respect to a
given policy option.
♦ Political Mapping is usually constructed as a two
dimensional chart with the government placed at the center
as the primary decision maker. Along the vertical axis, the
identified stakeholders can be grouped into different
discrete units such as external actors, parliamentary actors,
civil service, interest groups and civil society
organizations. The horizontal axis depicts the degree to
which the actors support/oppose a particular policy option.

84
Actors in the Political Mapping
♦ Vertical dimension
– The government
– Social sectors
– Political parties
– Interest groups
– External actors
♦ Horizontal dimension
– Core support
– Ideological support
– Opposition

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Political Mapping
Forward Mapping
♦ Forward mapping specifies the chain of behaviors
that link a policy proposal to desired outcomes
– The dirty mindedness: what could possibly go wrong
and who has an incentive to make it go wrong?
– Three-step approach
♦ Forward mapping is more useful for identifying
implementation problems

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Three Steps for Forward Mapping

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Confronting the Trade-Offs

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

 Criteria/Alternatives Matrices
♦ Each cell in a criteria/alternatives matrix contains
the projected outcome of the column alternative as
assessed by reference to row criterion.
♦ If you cannot fill in the cell with a quantitatively
expressed description of the projected outcome,
you might settle for a verbal descriptor like “very
good” or a symbolic descriptor like + or -.

A criteria/alternatives matrix SUMMARIZES the

findings from analysis of different alternatives and it
CANNOT replace the analysis itself.
Criteria/Alternatives Matrix
Evaluation Policy Alternatives
Criteria

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Criterion 1

Criterion 2

Criterion 3
An Example of Criteria/Alternatives Matrix
Decision Matrix
Uses of Decision Matrices
♦ Making sure the analysis is complete and
systematic
♦ Choosing the “best” policy alternative
♦ Articulating trade-offs
♦ Identifying Synergies and Combining Alternatives
♦ Policy discourse
♦ Policy re-design (decision matrix as “policy lab”)
 Making Sure the Analysis is
Complete and Systematic
Evaluation Policy Alternatives
Criteria

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Criterion 1 no analysis no analysis no analysis

Criterion 2 analysis no analysis analysis

conducted conducted
(good quality) (good quality)
Criterion 3 no analysis analysis analysis
conducted conducted
(poor quality) (poor quality)
 In the Absence of Policy Analysis
Evaluation Policy Alternatives
Criteria

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Criterion 1 no analysis Cost-Benefit Cost-Benefit

(Economic Analysis Analysis
Impacts) (Report A) (Report A)

Criterion 2 No analysis Social Impact Social Impact

(Social Study Study
Impacts) (Report B) (Report C)

Criterion 3 no analysis no analysis Environmental

(Environmental Impact Assessment
impacts (Report D)
Choosing the “Best” Policy Alternative
Choosing the best alternative is trivial when you have
either a single criterion or an alternative that ranks highest
on all criteria. Unfortunately, reality is rarely so kind.
Although you may sometimes be pleasantly surprised, you
should expect to find different alternatives doing best on
different criteria.

Weimer and Vining, Policy Analysis

An Example of Criteria/Alternatives Matrix
Identifying Synergies
and Combining Alternatives
♦ Alternatives does not necessarily signify that the
policy options are mutually exclusive
♦ Sometimes two policy alternatives can be
combined into a new policy option which may
help to solve or mitigate some negative effects
when these alternatives are implemented
individually.
♦ Sometimes there are synergies between two
alternatives so that the combined option may lead
to extra benefits
Making Policy Recommendation

Defining Policy Problem

Identifying Policy Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the Outcomes

Confronting the Trade-offs

Making Policy Recommendation

 Types of Policy Advices
♦ Recommending best policy or a set of better policies that
exclude one or more clearly worse alternatives
♦ Presenting the decision-maker/user/client with a subset of
alternatives and explaining what judgments of fact or value
are required to rank them
♦ Evaluating rival policy alternatives on some of the relevant
criteria, then expecting decision-makers/users/clients to fill
matrix cells on other criteria through non-expert
judgments, to judge trade-offs, and to choose
 Twenty-Dollar-Bill Test
♦ If your favorite policy alternative is such a great
idea, how came it’s not happening already?
♦ Typical Reasons for failing the twenty-dollar-bill
– Resistance from key stakeholders
– Perverse incentive structure
♦ Failure on the test may not be fatal
 Grandma Bessie Test
♦ Suppose your grandma Bessie, who is intelligent
but not very sophisticated politically, asks you
about your work
♦ You say you are “a policy adviser working for..”
She says, “What’s that?” You explain that
you’ve been working on “the problem of …”
She says, “So, what’s the answer?”
♦ Your have one minute to offer a coherent, down-
to-earth explanation before her eyes glaze over
♦ If you feel yourself starting to hem and haw, you
haven’t really understood your own conclusions
at deep enough level to make sense to others,
and probably not to yourself
Policy Analysis is an Iterative Process

Defining Policy
Problem

Identifying Policy
Alternatives

Selecting Criteria

Projecting the
Outcomes

Confronting the
Trade-offs

Making Policy
Recommendation
 Basic Structure of Policy Memo
♦ Executive summary
♦ Policy Problem
♦ Policy Options
♦ Criteria (justifications and measurement)
♦ Analysis of Policy Options
♦ Decision Matrix (with Comparative Analysis and
Conclusions)
♦ Policy Recommendations
Seven Deadly Sins in Policy
Analysis
1. Solving the wrong problem
2. Formulating policy without considering
alternatives
3. Overlooking “side effects”
4. Ignoring costs
5. Forgetting about politics and
implementation challenges
6. Overreliance on “Gut Feeling”
7. Incomplete analysis
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