KA - IB and Valuations
KA - IB and Valuations
Table of Contents
B. Projections ............................................................................................................ 18
C. WACC Calculation .............................................................................................. 20
Beta Calculation – Levered and Unlevered Beta ................................. 20
V. MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ...................................... 23
A. Mergers and Acquisitions - Overview ......................................................... 23
B. Steps involved in M&A ..................................................................................... 24
C. Types of Mergers .............................................................................................. 24
D. Challenges and Risks of M&A ......................................................................... 25
VI. FINANCIAL DUE DILIGENCE .......................................... 26
A. Objectives of FDD ............................................................................................ 26
B. Importance of FDD ........................................................................................... 26
C. Key Components of FDD .................................................................................. 27
D. Process of FDD .................................................................................................. 28
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INVESTMENT BANKING
A) Meaning of Investment Banks
Sales and Trading: They engage in buying and selling of securities, commodities,
and other financial instruments. This can include trading on behalf of clients or
for the bank's own account.
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Capital Raising: Beyond traditional equity and debt offerings, investment banks
help clients raise capital through private placements, syndicated loans, and other
financial instruments.
Commercial banks and investment banks are both financial institutions but serve
different purposes and operate in distinct segments of the financial market. Here
are the key differences between commercial banks and investment banks:
Primary Functions:
Regulation:
Commercial Banks: They are typically more heavily regulated due to their role in
safeguarding depositors' funds and maintaining financial stability. Regulations
ensure they operate prudently and manage risks associated with lending and other
financial activities.
Investment Banks: While they are also subject to regulations, these are often
focused more on market conduct and the securities they trade rather than
deposit protection and liquidity.
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Risk Profile:
Clientele:
Commercial Banks: They serve retail customers (individuals and small to medium-
sized businesses) and focus on providing services that cater to everyday financial
needs.
Structure:
Investment Banks: They often have a more complex structure, with divisions
specializing in different financial services such as investment banking, trading,
asset management, and research.
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In summary, while both commercial banks and investment banks are crucial
components of the financial system, they differ significantly in terms of their
primary functions, clientele, risk profiles, regulatory oversight, and organizational
structures. These differences stem from their distinct roles in providing
financial services to different segments of the economy and their varying
approaches to managing financial risks and opportunities.
GLOBAL:
4) Bank of America Merrill Lynch - It is known for its global investment banking
7) Credit Suisse - It is known for its investment banking, private banking, and
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INDIAN:
In India, the top investment banks are primarily those that offer a range of
financial services including investment banking, advisory services, securities
trading, and asset management. Some of the top Indian investment banks include:
3) Kotak Mahindra Capital Company - It is known for its expertise in equity capital
markets, mergers and acquisitions advisory, and restructuring services.
4) HDFC Bank - While primarily a commercial bank, HDFC Bank also has a strong
investment banking arm that offers services such as advisory for mergers and
acquisitions, capital raising, and structured finance.
5) SBI Capital Markets - The investment banking subsidiary of the State Bank of
India, offering services in project advisory, debt syndication, equity capital
markets, and mergers and acquisitions.
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9) Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) - The Indian arm of Nomura
Holdings, offering a range of financial services including investment banking,
equity and debt capital markets, and advisory services.
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VALUATIONS
A) Meaning of Valuations
Purpose-driven: The purpose of the valuation influences the approach taken and
the factors considered. Valuations for financial reporting, tax assessments,
investment decisions, or mergers and acquisitions can differ significantly.
Time Sensitivity: The value of an asset or company can change over time due to
market fluctuations, economic conditions, changes in regulations, or shifts in
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industry trends. Thus, valuations are often time-sensitive and need to be
periodically updated.
Interpretation: The results of a valuation are open to interpretation and can vary
based on the perspective of different stakeholders, such as buyers, sellers,
investors, and regulators.
Risk and Uncertainty: There are inherent risks and uncertainties in valuations,
particularly when forecasting future cash flows or determining appropriate
discount rates.
Legal and Regulatory Considerations: Valuations may need to comply with specific
legal and regulatory requirements, such as fair value accounting standards or tax
regulations.
1) Relative Valuation
2) Intrinsic Valuation
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RELATIVE VALUATION
Comparable Companies Analysis (CCA)
Comparable means finding the value of the target company by doing a comparison
with other companies. Under this technique, we try to find the implied value of
our target company based on how other similar companies are priced in the Equity
Market.
» The process of “Comparable Companies Analysis” is just like valuing a real estate
property based on how other real estate properties of similar type are Priced in
the market.
» As absolute values of companies or assets are not comparable, for doing this
comparison, we first have to convert absolute values into standardized measures
of value which is called “Multiple”.
This is most important part of CCA, as if our comparable companies are not
defined correctly, the resulting value of the target company would also be
incorrect.
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Market Capitalisation is the total value of all outstanding shares of the company.
It is also referred to as Market Cap. Market Cap is calculated by multiplying
market price per share by the number of shares outstanding of the company.
Market Cap = Market Price Per Share x Diluted Number of Shares Outstanding
Market price is the price at which stock of the company is trading in the
Equity Market.
Source of Information: Can be sourced from various market portal like:
Bloomberg, Capital 1Q, Marketscreener.com, Googlefinance.com,
investing.com, etc.
Price should be closing market price on the date of valuation. Say if we are
doing valuation on 31st March 2024, the Market price of shares should also
be of 31st March 2024 of all comparable companies.
Diluted Number of Shares = Basic Shares O/S + Dilution
Basic Shares O/S = Total Shares issued by the company – Treasury Shares
Dilution means potential increase in number of shares of the company in
future. Dilution can be caused by various dilutive instruments issued by the
company, such as:
Employees Stock Options Plans (ESOP)
Restricted Shares Units (RSU)
Performance Share Units (PSU)
Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs)
Employees Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP)
Convertible Debenture
Convertible Preference Shares
Stock Warrants
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Enterprise Value is the value a buyer would pay for the business independent of
its capital structure.
It doesn’t matter how business is financed; its Enterprise value stays the
same.
Under this step, we would calculate the Financial and Operating Metrics of the
Company, which are key indicators of its performance.
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITA
EBIT
NOPAT
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Net Income
Free Cash Flows
No of Subscribers
No of Visitors on the Website
No of Beds in Hospital
Ton Capacity of a Cement Plant
Mega Watt Capacity of Power Plant
» While calculating multiples, we should make sure that the values we are relating
should make sense, i.e., it should be an apple-to-apple comparison of values in
numerator vs denominator.
For example, it makes sense to relate equity value with EPS as both
numbers belong to equity, but we can’t relate EV to EPS as EV belongs to
the entire firm whereas EPS belongs to equity holders.
Likewise, it makes sense to relate EV with EBIT and EBITDA as both
numbers belong to the firm, but it does not make sense to relate EV with
EPS as one belongs to the firm and another belongs to equity.
Under this step we will calculate industry benchmark multiples on the basis of
comparable companies’ multiples.
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These Industry multiples indicate where market consensus lies about valuation of
an industry. For Example. we can say that in the IT sector, the average industry
PE multiple is 10x or as per market, the IT industry is priced 10x times its
earnings.
EV/Sales
EV/Sales measure is frequently applied for initial growth phase companies having
negative and volatile earnings and cash flows such as technology firms.
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA is a very popular multiple, the reason being it captures all benefits
of EV multiples and is less exposed to accounting differences compared to other
profit measures such as EBIT, Net Income, etc.
Under this step, we will calculate the implied value of our “Target Company”, the
company we want to value, on the basis of industry multiples.
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Transaction Comparable means finding the value of the target company by doing
a comparison with other M&A Transactions. Under this technique, we try to find
implied value of our target company based on how other similar companies were
priced in the previous M&A deals.
» Multiples calculated above become the basis of finding the Implied value of our
target business, we want to value.
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INTRINSIC VALUATION
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD (DCF)
A) Overview of DCF
DCF value calculated above is different from the relative value of the company
derived using trading comps or precedent transaction technique. Bankers use DCF
valuation to check the valuation they are getting under the relative valuation
technique which might be distorted by existing abnormal or extreme situations in
the market.
Step 2) Calculation of Discount rate; WACC or Ke depending upon the cash flows
we are discounting
Step 5) DCF Value = Sum of PV of Projected Cash Flows and PV of Terminal Value
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Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF) = Earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) –
Taxes on EBIT +/- Non-Cash Charges/Earnings – Capital Expenditure +/- Change
in Working Capital
WACC = Cost of Debt (Kd) * (1 – Tax Rate) * Weight of Debt (D/V) + Cost of
Equity (Ke) * Weight of Equity (E/V)
Terminal Value:
Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE) = FCFF – Interest * (1 – Tax Rate) +/- Net
Change in Debt
Terminal Value:
Exit Multiple Method: Net Income of Exit Year * Exit P/E Multiple
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B) Projections
We can split the forecast period in two or three phases depending on the growth
phase of the business.
Phase I: It’s a high growth period of the company. During this period company
grows at a rate higher than the steady growth rate of the company. Size of this
period varies from 0 year to 5 years depending on the business lifecycle of the
company. For this phase, we forecast a detailed business plan.
Phase II: During this period, the company's growth starts moderating due to the
company's competition and size. This period starts from the end of the high
growth period and ends at the start of the company's steady growth phase of
the company. This phase usually extends up to 5 years.
Phase III: This is a steady growth phase of the company. During this phase, the
company grows steadily during its remaining life, which in most cases extend up
to infinity. We don't project this phase but capture the value of cash flow by
calculating terminal value. The terminal value represents the value of future cash
flows generated by the company in the years after the detailed/extended
forecast period.
Revenue Projections
» Projecting revenue is the first and most important step of any projection. All
projections of the company's financials starts with revenue projections.
» In Revenue projection, we first need to decide about the projection period (i.e.
for how long we want to do explicit projection).
While doing valuation, we usually assume that the life of the company, being
a going concern, is infinite. Infinite life means the operation of the company
will go on forever. However, we do explicit projections only for high growth
period (i.e. period before maturity stage).
For the remaining period (i.e. period of steady growth) we can find value of
cash flows by applying the perpetuity method.
» Company's growth rate falls to a level which it can sustain forever. We usually
assume this growth rate is close to the economic growth rate.
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» Usually in the model, we do explicit projections of the company for 5-10 years
(i.e. we assume that the company would reach a steady growth stage in 5 - 10
years time period.
¥ If it is maturing fast then we might consider limiting the projection period from
3 to 5 years depending growth potential of the company.
From the above discussion, we can conclude that the projection period for a
company is dependent upon the growth stage the company is in right now. If it's
already matured then no projection is required and if it's a pretty young company,
we might consider extending the company projection period beyond 10 years.
However, it's always recommended to be slightly conservative on the high growth
period and don’t go overboard, as DCF valuation is entirely projection-based
valuation and very sensitive to high growth period. Therefore, taking a high
growth period beyond a reasonable time period will increase the risk of
overvaluation under DCF.
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C) WACC Calculations
Marginal Tax Rate: The prevailing statutory (combined federal and state)
tax rate should be used in calculating the after-tax cost of debt.
Business risk is the risk associated with the operation of the company (e.g.
business risk of IBM is different from Walmart. IBM caters Technology
sector whereas Walmart caters to the Retail sector)
Leverage risk is the risk associated with having debt in the capital
structure. More debt in the capital structure of the company higher would
be risk of bankruptcy, resulting in a higher beta.
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The total beta of the company is also called levered beta as it includes both
the risk, business as well as leverage risk.
Period: 2-3 years of data is sufficient to calculate regression beta. Too short-period
beta may be noisy due to the small data size. Too large-period beta may not be
relevant due to changes in the risk profile of the company. Weekly change is
preferred over daily change.
Step-by-Step Approach
Step 1: Calculate the regression beta of the company based on its historical price
volatility relative to the market.
Step 2: Unlever the beta calculated under step 1 with the historical capital
structure of the company (take out the average historical leverage risk from levered
beta).
Step 3: Relever the beta calculated under step 2 with the target capital structure
of the company.
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Step-by-Step Approach
Step 1: Take the levered beta of peer group companies (the more the number of
peers, the better it would be).
Step 2: Calculate the Unlevered Beta of the peers based on their respective capital
structure.
Step 4: Relever the beta calculated under step 3 with the target capital structure
of the company being analyzed.
Bottom-up beta is generally preferred over regression beta due to the following
reasons:
Law of large numbers: Chances of error would be less in the case of bottom-
up beta as it is based on the data of the larger number of firms compared to
just one firm data in the case of regression beta.
If there are some exceptional movements in the stock price of the company
in the past not explained by the market, in that case, regression beta tends
to be low even for the highly risky company.
Note: Use the current capital structure in case of regression beta or industry
average capital structure in case of bottom-up beta.
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Mergers:
A merger occurs when two companies agree to combine their operations into a
single entity. This could be due to:
Synergy: Mergers can achieve synergies where the combined entity is more
valuable than the sum of its parts. Synergies can be in cost savings, increased
revenue opportunities, or operational efficiencies.
Acquisitions:
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Hostile Takeover: If the target company resists the acquisition, the acquirer can
attempt a hostile takeover by buying a majority of its shares or convincing
shareholders to replace management.
Strategic Intent: Identifying the strategic reasons for pursuing the M&A, such
as expanding market reach, gaining technology, or eliminating competition.
Valuation: Determining the value of the target company through financial analysis,
considering factors like revenue, assets, liabilities, and future potential.
C) Types of Mergers
Mergers can be categorized into several types based on their strategic intent:
Horizontal Merger: Between companies operating in the same industry and market.
Vertical Merger: Between companies in the same industry but at different stages
of the supply chain.
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M&A activities come with inherent risks and challenges, such as:
Strategic Fit: Ensuring that the merger or acquisition aligns with the long-term
strategic goals of the company.
Mergers and acquisitions are complex processes that require careful planning,
execution, and integration to achieve success. While they offer opportunities for
growth, synergy creation, and market expansion, they also pose significant risks
if not managed effectively. Companies engaging in M&A must conduct thorough
due diligence, negotiate wisely, and plan meticulously to maximize the benefits and
minimize the pitfalls of these strategic transactions.
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A) Objectives of FDD
Identifying Financial Risks: Assessing the financial risks associated with the
target company, such as liquidity issues, debt levels, contingent liabilities, and
potential financial misstatements.
Assessing Asset and Liability Quality: Reviewing the quality and valuation of
assets (such as inventory, receivables, and fixed assets) and liabilities (such as
debt, provisions, and contingent liabilities).
B) Importance of FDD
Risk Mitigation: It helps to identify and assess financial risks associated with the
target company.
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Valuation Accuracy: It provides a clearer picture of the target company’s financial
performance and valuation.
Cash Flow Statement: Assessing operating, investing, and financing cash flows to
understand cash generation and utilization.
3) Quality of Earnings:
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Analyzing trends in accounts receivable, inventory, and accounts payable
turnover.
6) Tax Review:
Review legal agreements, contracts, and regulatory filings for any potential
liabilities or risks.
D) Process of FDD
Planning and Preparation: Defining the scope of due diligence, assembling a due
diligence team (including financial experts, auditors, and legal advisors), and
developing a due diligence checklist.
Analysis and Review: Conducting detailed analysis of the financial data, identifying
key issues, discrepancies, or areas requiring further investigation.
Decision Making: Using the findings from financial due diligence to make informed
decisions regarding valuation, negotiation of terms, and mitigation of risks.
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