Probability

CH 4

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 Objectives
1. Construct sample spaces.
2. Compute and interpret probabilities.
3. Approximate probabilities using the Empirical Method.
4. Compute probabilities by using: the General Addition Rule &
the Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events & the Rule of
Complements.
5. Compute conditional probabilities.
6. Compute probabilities by using : the General Multiplication
Rule & the Multiplication Rule for Independent Events.
7. Compute the probability that an event occurs at least once.
8. Count the number of ways a sequence of operations can be
performed
9. Count the number of permutations and combinations.

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 Basic Concepts in Probability

Section 4.1

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 Why Probability?
• Random Experiment – A chance operation whose
outcomes are subject to uncertainty

• Get variation in results when experiment is

repeated

• Need probability to provide mathematical model

to describe or predict outcomes of the
experiment.

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 Probability
A probability experiment is one in which we do not know what any
individual outcome will be, but we do know how a long series of
repetitions will come out.

For example, if we toss a fair coin, we do not know what the

outcome of a single toss will be, but we do know what the outcome
of a long series of tosses will be – about half “heads” and half
“tails”.

The probability of an event is the proportion of times that the event

occurs in the long run. So, for a “fair” coin, that is, one that is
equally likely to come up heads as tails, the probability of heads is
1/2 and the probability of tails is 1/2.

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 Law of Large Numbers
The Law of Large Numbers says that as a probability
experiment is repeated again and again, the proportion of
times that a given event occurs will approach its
probability.

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 Sample Space
The collection of all the possible outcomes of a probability
experiment is called a sample space.
Example:
Describe the sample space for each of the following:
a) The toss of a coin
The sample space is {Heads, Tails}.
b) The roll of a dice
The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
c) Selecting a student at random from a list of 10,000 at a
large university
The sample space consists of the 10,000 students

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 Probability Model
We are often concerned with occurrences that consist of several
outcomes. For example, when rolling a dice, we might be interested
in the probability of rolling an odd number. Rolling an odd number
corresponds to the collection of outcomes {1, 3, 5} from the sample
space {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. In general, a collection of outcomes of a
sample space is called an event.

Once we have a sample space, we need to specify a probability of

each event. This is done with a probability model. We use the letter
“𝑃” to denote probabilities. For example, we denote the probability
that a tossed coin lands heads by 𝑃(Heads).

In general, if A denotes an event, the probability of event A is

denoted by 𝑃(A).
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 Probability Rules
The probability of an event is always between 0 and 1. In
other words, for any event A,
0 ≤ 𝑃(A) ≤ 1.

• If A cannot occur, then 𝑃(A) = 0.

• If A is certain to occur, then 𝑃(A) = 1.

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 Probabilities with Equally Likely Outcomes
If a sample space has 𝑚 equally likely outcomes and an event A has 𝑘
outcomes, then
Number of outcomes in A 𝒌
𝑷(A) = =
Number of outcomes in the sample space 𝒎
Example:
In the Georgia Cash-4 Lottery, a winning number between 0000 and
9999 is chosen at random, with all the possible numbers being equally
likely. What is the probability that all four digits are the same?

The outcomes in the sample space are the numbers from 0000 to
9999, so there are 10,000 equally likely outcomes in the sample space.
There are 10 outcomes for which all the digits are the same: 0000,
1111, 2222, and so on up to 9999.
10
𝑃(All four digits the same) = = 0.001
10,000
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 Sampling is a Probability Experiment
Sampling an individual from a population is a probability
experiment. The population is the sample space and
members of the population are equally likely outcomes.

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 Example: Sampling as a Probability Experiment
There 10,000 families in a certain town categorized as follows:
Own a house Own a condo Rent a house Rent an apartment
4753 1478 912 2857

A pollster samples a single family from this population.

a) What is the probability that the sampled family owns a house?
b) What is the probability that the sampled family rents?
Solution:
a) The sample space consists of 10,000 households. Of these, 4753
own a house. Therefore,
4753
𝑃(Own a house) = = 0.4753.
10,000
a) The number of families who rent is 912 + 2857 = 3769. Therefore,
3769
𝑃(Rents) = = 0.3769.
10,000
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 Unusual Events
An unusual event is one that is not likely to happen. In other words, an
event whose probability is small. There are no hard-and-fast rules as to
just how small a probability needs to be before an event is considered
unusual, but we will use the following rule of thumb.
Any event whose probability is less than 0.05 is considered to be
unusual.
Example:
In a college of 5000 students, 150 are math majors. A student is
selected at random and turns out to be a math major. Is this unusual?
Solution:
The event of choosing a math major consists of 150 students out of a
150
total of 5000. The probability of choosing a math major is = 0.03.
5000
This would be considered an unusual event.

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Approximating Probabilities – Empirical Method
The Law of Large Numbers says that if we repeat a
probability experiment a large number of times, then the
proportion of times that a particular outcome occurs is likely
to be close to the true probability of the outcome.

The Empirical Method consists of repeating an experiment a

large number of times, and using the proportion of times an
outcome occurs to approximate the probability of the
outcome.

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 Example: Empirical Method
In a recent year, there were 2,046,935 boys and 1,952,451 girls
born in the U.S. Approximate the probability that a newborn baby
is a boy.

Solution:
We compute the number of times the experiment has been
repeated:
2,046,935 + 1,952,451 = 3,999,386 births.
2,046,935
The proportion of births that are boys is = 0.5118. We
3,999,386
approximate 𝑃(Boy) ≈ 0.5118.

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 The Addition Rule and
the Rule of Complements
Section 4.2

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 A or B Events and the General Addition Rule
A compound event is an event that is formed by
combining two or more events. One type of compound
event is of the form A or B. The event A or B occurs
whenever A occurs, B occurs, or A and B both occur.
Probabilities of events in the form A or B are computed
using the General Addition Rule.

General Addition Rule:

For any two events A and B,
𝑷(A or B) = 𝑷(A) + 𝑷(B) – 𝑷(A and B)
P A ∪ B = P A + P B − P(A ∩ B)

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 Example: Two Circle Venn
Let E be the event that a new car requires engine work under warranty
and let T be the event that the car requires transmission work under
warranty. Suppose that
𝑃 𝐸 = 0.10, 𝑃 𝑇 = 0.02, 𝑃 𝐸 ∩ 𝑇 = 0.01

a. Find the probability that the car needs work on at least one of the
two components.
P 𝐸 ∪ 𝑇 = P E + P T − P E ∩ 𝑇 = 0.10 + 0.02 − 0.01 = 0.11

b. Find the probability that the car only needs work on the engine.
E T
P 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑒 = P E − P E ∩ 𝑇
= 0.10 − 0.01 = 0.09
0.09 0.01 0.01

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 Example: General Addition Rule
1000 adults were asked whether they favored a law that would
provide support for higher education. In addition, each person was
classified as likely to vote or not likely to vote based on whether they
voted in the last election. What is the probability that a randomly
selected adult is likely to vote or favors the law?

721

523
L.V F
721 523
349 + 372 +151

128
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 Example: General Addition Rule (Solution)

There are 372 + 262 + 87 = 721 people who are likely to vote, so
𝑃(Likely vote) = 721/1000 = 0.721. NV.NF 0.128
L.V F
There are 372 + 151 = 523 people who favor
0.349 0.372 0.151
the law, so
𝑃(Favor) = 523/1000 = 0.523.
The number of people who are both likely to vote and who favor the law is
372. So,
𝑃(Likely vote AND Favors) = 372/1000 = 0.372.
By the General Addition Rule,
𝑃(Likely vote or Favors) = 𝑃(Likely vote)+𝑃(Favors)–𝑃(Likely vote and favors)
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= 0.721 + 0.523 – 0.372 = 0.872
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if it is impossible for
both events to occur. S

A B

Example:
A dice is rolled. Event A is that the dice comes up 3, and event B is
that the dice comes up an even number.
These events are mutually exclusive since the dice cannot both come
up 3 and come up an even number.

A fair coin is tossed twice. Event A is that one of the tosses is heads,
and Event B is that one of the tosses is tails.
These events are not mutually exclusive since, if the two tosses are
HT or TH, then both events occur.
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 The Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
𝑃(A and B) = 0.
P A∩B =0
This leads to a simplification of the General Addition Rule.

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events:

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
𝑷(A or B) = 𝑷(A) + 𝑷(B)
P A∪B =P A +P B

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 Example: Addition Rule/Mutually Exclusive
In a recent year of the Olympic Games, a total of 10,735 athletes
participated. Of these, 530 represented the United States, 277
represented Canada, and 102 represented Mexico. What is the
probability that an Olympic athlete chosen at random represents the
U.S. or Canada?
Solution:
These events (an Olympic athlete represents the U.S. and an Olympic
athlete represents the Canada) are mutually exclusive, because it is
impossible for an Olympic athlete to represent both the U.S. and
Canada at the same time. That means 𝑃(U.S. and Canada)=0. So,
𝑃(U.S. or Canada) = 𝑃(U.S.) + 𝑃(Canada)
530 277
= +
10,735 10,735
807
=
10,735
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= 0.07517
 The Complement of an Event
If there is a 60% chance of rain today, then there is a 40%
chance that it will not rain. The events “Rain” and “No rain”
are complements. The complement of an event says that
the event does not occur.

If A is any event, the complement of A is the event that A

does not occur. The complement of A is denoted Ac.

A 𝐴𝑐

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 The Rule of Complements
The Rule of Complements:
𝑷(Ac) = 1 – 𝑷(A)
P 𝐴′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Example:
According to the Wall Street Journal, 40% of cars sold in a
recent year were small cars. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen car sold in that year is not a small car?

Solution:
𝑃(Not a small car) = 1 – 𝑃(Small car)
P 𝐴𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 0.40 = 0.60.
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 Example
The following table displays the 100 senators of the 113th
U.S. Congress, classified by political Male Female Total
party affiliation and gender. Democrat 36 16 52

A senator is selected at random Republican 42 4 46

Independent 2 0 2
from this group.
Total 80 20 100
Compute the following probabilities.
1.The senator is a male Republican.
2. The senator is a Democrat.
3. The senator is an Independent.
4. The senator is a Democrat or a female.
5. The senator is a Republican.
6. The senator is not a Republican.
7. The senator is a Democrat or an Independent.
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 Example
1.The senator is a male Republican. Male Female Total
42 Democrat 36 16 52
𝑃 𝑅∩𝑀 = = 0.42
100 Republican 42 4 46
2. The senator is a Democrat. Independent 2 0 2
52
𝑃 𝐷 = = 0. 52 Total 80 20 100
100
3. The senator is an Independent.
2
𝑃 𝐼𝑛 = = 0.02
100
4. The senator is a Democrat or a female.
52 20 16 56
𝑃 𝐷∪𝐹 =𝑃 𝐷 +𝑃 𝐹 −𝑃 𝐷∩𝐹 = + − = = 0.56
100 100 100 100

5. The senator is a Republican. 46

𝑃 𝑅 = = 0.46
100
6. The senator is not a Republican.
𝑃 𝑅 𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑅 = 1 − 0.46 = 0.54
7. The senator is a Democrat or an Independent.
52 2
𝑃 𝐷 ∪ 𝐼𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐷 + 𝑃 𝐼𝑛 = + = 0.54
©McGraw-Hill Education. 100 100
 Conditional Probability and the
Multiplication Rule
Section 4.3

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 Conditional Probability
Sometimes we may want to update the probability of an event after
the occurrence of another event is known.

Example 1:
• Consists of rolling a dice once. let X be the outcome, and let A be
the event {X = 6}, and let B be the event {X > 4}
• what is the probability of getting an event A = {X = 6}?

• Suppose now we already know that the event B has occurred,

what is the probability of getting the event A?

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 Conditional Probability
Approximately 15% of adult men in the U.S. are more than
six feet tall. Therefore, if a man is selected at random, the
probability that he is more than six feet tall is 0.15.
Now assume that you learn that the selected man is a
professional basketball player. With this extra information,
the probability that the man is more than six feet tall
becomes much greater than 0.15. A probability that is
computed with the knowledge of additional information is
called a conditional probability.
The conditional probability of an event B given an event A is denoted
𝑃(B|A).
𝑃(B|A) is the probability that B occurs, under the assumption that A
occurs.
P(A and B)
The probability is computed as P(B|A)= .
P(A)
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 Example: Conditional Probability
Consider the following table which presents the number of U.S. men and
women (in millions) 25 years old and older who have attained various levels
of education.

A person is selected at random.

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 Example: Conditional Probability (Continued 1)
What is the probability that the person is a man?
Total

94.0
101.0
195.0
We first compute the total number of people in the study.
Total number of men = 14.0 + 29.6 + 15.6 + 7.2 + 17.5 + 10.1 = 94.0
Total number of women = 13.7 + 31.9 + 17.5 + 9.6 + 19.2 + 9.1 = 101.0
There are 94.0 million men and 101.0 million women, so the total
number of people is 195.0 million. We can now compute the probability
that a randomly chosen person is a man.
94.0
𝑃(Man) = = 0.482.
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195.0
 Example: Conditional Probability (Continued 2)
What is the probability that the person is a man with a Bachelor’s degree?
Total

94.0
101.0
195.0
The number of men with Bachelor’s degrees is found in the table to be
17.5 million. The total number of people is 195.0 million.
17.5
Therefore 𝑃(Man with a bachelor’s degree) = = 0.0897.
195.0

©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Example: Conditional Probability (Continued 3)
What is the probability that the person has a Bachelor’s degree, given that he
is a man?
Total

94.0
101.0
195.0

P(Man with a Bachelor′ s degree)

𝑃(Bachelor’s degree|Man) =
P(Man)
17.5
195.0 0.0897
= 94.0 = = 0.1862.
0.482
195.0
We use the General Method for computing a conditional probability.
17.5
= = 0.1862
94.0
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 The General Multiplication Rule
The General Method for computing conditional probabilities provides
a way to compute probabilities for events of the form “A and B.” If
we multiply both sides of the equation by 𝑃(A) we obtain the
General Multiplication Rule.

General Multiplication Rule:

For any two events A and B,

𝑷(A and B) = 𝑷(A)∙ 𝑷(B|A)

or
𝑷(A and B) = 𝑷(B)∙ 𝑷(A|B)

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 Example: General Multiplication Rule
Among those who apply for a particular job, the probability of being
granted an interview is 0.1. Among those interviewed, the probability
of being offered a job is 0.25. Find the probability that an applicant is
offered a job. In Not In
P(OJ|In)=0.25 Not
O.J O.J
Solution: P=0.1

Being offered a job involves two events. First you must be

interviewed, then, given that you have been interviewed, you must
be offered a job.
Using the general multiplication rule, we obtain
𝑃(Offered a job) = 𝑃(Interviewed and Offered a job)
𝑃(Offered a job) = 𝑃(Interviewed)𝑃(Offered a job | Interviewed)
= (0.1)(0.25)
= 0.025
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Independence
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the
probability that the other event occurs. If two events are not independent,
we say they are dependent.

Example:
A college student is chosen at random. The events are “being a freshman”
and “being less than 20 years old.”
These events are not independent. If the student is a freshman, the
probability that the student is less than 20 years old is greater than for a
student who is not a freshman.

A college student is chosen at random. The events are “born on a Sunday”

and “taking a statistics class.”
These events are independent. If a student was born on a Sunday, this has
no effect on the probability that the student takes a statistics class.
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
When two events, A and B, are independent, then 𝑃(B|A) = 𝑃(B),
because knowing that A occurred does not affect the probability that
B occurs. This leads to a simplified version of the multiplication rule.

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events:

For any two independent events A and B,
𝑷(A and B) = 𝑷(A)∙ 𝑷(B)

Also, If two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent then the following pairs
of events are also independent too:

𝐴 & 𝐵𝑐 ⇒ 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃(𝐵𝑐 )
𝐴𝑐 & 𝐵 ⇒ 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 . 𝑃(𝐵)
𝐴𝑐 &𝐵𝑐 ⇒ 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 . 𝑃(𝐵𝑐 )
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Example: Independent Events
According to recent figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, the percentage of
people under the age of 18 was 23.5% in New York City, 25.8% in Chicago,
and 26.0% in Los Angeles. If one person is selected from each city, what is
the probability that all of them are under 18? Is this an unusual event?

Solution:
These three events are independent because the identity of the person
chosen from one city does not affect who is chosen in the other cities.
𝑃(New York and Chicago and Los Angeles)
= 𝑃(New York)·𝑃(Chicago)·𝑃(Los Angeles)
= (0.235)(0.258)(0.260)
= 0.0158

The probability is 0.0158. This is an unusual event, if we apply the most

commonly used cutoff point of 0.05.
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Sampling With and Without Replacement
When we sample two items from a population, we can proceed in either of
two ways. We can replace the first item drawn before sampling the second.
This is known as sampling with replacement. The other option is to leave
the first item out when sampling the second one. This is known as sampling
without replacement.

When sampling with replacement, each draw is made from the entire
population, so the probability of drawing a particular item on the second
draw does not depend on the first draw.

• When sampling with replacement, the draws are independent.

• When sampling without replacement, the draws are not independent.

When a sample is very small compared to the population (less than 5%), a
rule of thumb is that the items may be treated as independent.
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 Example 1: At Least Once
A fair coin is tossed five times. What is the probability that
it comes up heads at least once?

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 Example 1: At Least Once (Solution)
The tosses of a coin are independent, since the outcome of a toss is not
affected by the outcomes of other tosses. The complement of coming up
heads at least once is coming up tails all five times. We use the Rule of
Complements to compute the probability.
𝑃 𝐻 = 0.5
𝑃 𝑇 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐻 = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5

P(Comes up heads at least once) = 𝑃(Does not come up heads at all)𝑐

= 1 – 𝑃(Does not come up heads at all)
= 1 – 𝑃(Comes up tails all 5 times)
= 1 – 𝑃(1st is T and 2nd is T … and 5th is T)
= 1 – 𝑃(1st is T)∙𝑃(2nd is T )∙∙∙𝑃(5th is T)
= 1 – (0.5)∙(0.5)∙(0.5)∙(0.5)∙(0.5)
= 1 – (0.5)5
= 0.96875
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 Counting

Section 4.4

©McGraw-Hill Education.
 The Fundamental Principle of Counting
If an operation can be performed in 𝑚 ways, and a second operation
can be performed in 𝑛 ways, then the total number of ways to
perform the sequence of two operations is 𝑚𝑛.
In general, if a sequence of several operations is to be performed, the
number of ways to perform the sequence is found by multiplying
together the numbers of ways to perform each of the operations.
Example:
A certain make of automobile is available in any of
three colors: red, blue, or green, and comes with
either a large or small engine. In how many ways
can a buyer choose a car?

There are 3 choices of color and 2 choices of engine. The total number
of choices is 3·2 = 6.
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Example: Fundamental Principle of Counting
License plates in a certain state contain three letters followed
by three digits. How many different license plates can be made?

Solution:
There are six operations in all; choosing three letters and
choosing three digits. There are 26 ways to choose each letter
and 10 ways to choose each digit. The total number of license
plates is therefore
26·26·26·10·10·10 = 17,576,000.

©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Permutations
The word “permutation” is another word for “ordering.” When
we count the number of permutations, we are counting the
number of different ways that a group of items can be ordered.

The number of permutations of 𝒏 objects is 𝒏!

Recall that 𝑛! = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 ⋯ 3(2)(1)

Note: 0!=1 and 1!=1

©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Example: Permutations
1. Five runners run a race. One of them will finish first, another will finish
second, and so on. In how many different orders can they finish?

The number of different orders the runners can finish is 5! = 5·4·3·2·1 = 120.

2. Ten runners run a race. The first-place finisher will win a gold medal, the
second-place finisher will win a silver medal, and the third-place finisher
will win a bronze medal. In how many different ways can the medals be
awarded?

We use the Fundamental Principle of Counting. There are 10 possible choices

for the gold medal winner. Once the gold medal winner is determined, there
are nine remaining choices for the silver medal. Finally, there are eight
choices for the bronze medal. The total number of ways the medals can be
awarded is 10·9·8 = 720.
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Permutation of 𝑟 Objects Chosen from 𝑛
In the last example, three runners were chosen from a group of ten,
then ordered as first, second, and third. This is referred to as a
permutation of three items chosen from ten.

In general, a permutation of 𝑟 items chosen from 𝑛 items is an

ordering of the 𝑟 items. It is obtained by choosing 𝑟 items from a
group of 𝑛 items, then choosing an order for the 𝑟 items. The
number of permutations of 𝑟 items chosen from 𝑛 is denoted 𝑛𝑃𝑟.

The number of permutations of 𝒓 objects chosen from 𝒏 is

𝒏!
𝑷
𝒏 𝒓 = 𝒏 ∙ 𝒏 − 𝟏 ⋯ 𝒏 − 𝒓 + 𝟏 = .
𝒏−𝒓 !
𝒏!
𝑷𝒏,𝒓 = 𝒏 𝒏 − 𝟏 … 𝒏 − 𝒓 + 𝟏 =
𝒏−𝒓 !
©McGraw-Hill Education.
 Example: Permutation of 𝑟 Objects from 𝑛
Five lifeguards are available for duty one Saturday afternoon.
There are three lifeguard stations. In how many ways can
three lifeguards be chosen and ordered among the stations?

Solution:
We are choosing three items from a group of five and
ordering them. The number of ways to do this is

5! 5! 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 1
5𝑃3 = = = = 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 = 60
(5 − 3)! 2! 2⋅1
5𝑃3 = 𝑛 ∙ 𝑛 − 1 ⋯ 𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1 = 5.4.3 = 60

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 Combinations
In some cases, when choosing a set of objects from a larger set,
we don’t care about the ordering of the chosen objects; we
care only which objects are chosen. For example, we may not
care which lifeguard occupies which station; we might care only
which three lifeguards are chosen. Each distinct group of
objects that can be selected, without regard to order, is called a
combination.

The number of combinations of 𝒓 objects chosen from 𝒏 is

𝒏!
𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝒓! 𝒏−𝒓 !
𝒏!
𝑪𝒏,𝒓 =
𝒓! 𝒏 − 𝒓 !
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 Example: Combination
At a certain event, 30 people attend, and 5 will be chosen at
random to receive prizes. The prizes are all the same, so the
order in which the people are chosen does not matter. How
many different groups of 5 people can be chosen?

Solution:
Since the order of the 5 chosen people does not matter, we
need to compute the number of combinations of 5 chosen
from 30.
30! 30 ⋅ 29 ⋅ 28 ⋅ 27 ⋅ 26
30C5 = = = 142,506
5! (30 − 5)! 5⋅4⋅3⋅2⋅1

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 Example:
1. An organization with 12 members needs to select a president, vice
president, secretary, and treasurer. How many different ways are
there to select these leaders from their membership?

12! 12. 11.10 .9 . 8!

12𝑃4 =
12−4 !
=
8!
= 11880.

2. An organization with 12 members needs to select a committee of

4 members (equal positions). How many different ways are there
to select the committee from their membership?

12! 12. 11.10 . 9 . 8! 11880 12𝑃4

12𝐶4 = = = = = 495.
4! 12 − 4 ! 24 ∙ 8! 24 4!

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