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Gold Price Prediction Using RandomForestRegressor and ML

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27 views7 pages

Gold Price Prediction Using RandomForestRegressor and ML

Uploaded by

Rithik Logu
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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8_Predicting_Gold_Market_Trends_A_Random_Forest_Approach

July 5, 2024

##Gold Price Prediction Using Random Forest: A Machine Learning Perspective


-Vignesh Prabhu
Predicting gold prices is challenging due to various influencing factors. This project uses Random
Forest Regression, a machine learning technique, to forecast gold prices. By analyzing historical
data and economic indicators, we aim to create an accurate and reliable model to assist investors
and analysts in making informed decisions.
Import Dependencies
[1]: import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn import metrics

Data Collection And Preprocessing


[2]: #Load data into Dataframe
gold_data=pd.read_csv("/content/Gold_Price.csv")

[3]: #to print First 5 rows


gold_data.head()

[3]: Date SPX GLD USO SLV EUR/USD


0 1/2/2008 1447.160034 84.860001 78.470001 15.180 1.471692
1 1/3/2008 1447.160034 85.570000 78.370003 15.285 1.474491
2 1/4/2008 1411.630005 85.129997 77.309998 15.167 1.475492
3 1/7/2008 1416.180054 84.769997 75.500000 15.053 1.468299
4 1/8/2008 1390.189941 86.779999 76.059998 15.590 1.557099

[4]: #To check information


gold_data.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 2290 entries, 0 to 2289

1
Data columns (total 6 columns):
# Column Non-Null Count Dtype
--- ------ -------------- -----
0 Date 2290 non-null object
1 SPX 2290 non-null float64
2 GLD 2290 non-null float64
3 USO 2290 non-null float64
4 SLV 2290 non-null float64
5 EUR/USD 2290 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(5), object(1)
memory usage: 107.5+ KB

[5]: #to Check rows and columns


gold_data.shape

[5]: (2290, 6)

[6]: #To check statistical Values


gold_data.describe()

[6]: SPX GLD USO SLV EUR/USD


count 2290.000000 2290.000000 2290.000000 2290.000000 2290.000000
mean 1654.315776 122.732875 31.842221 20.084997 1.283653
std 519.111540 23.283346 19.523517 7.092566 0.131547
min 676.530029 70.000000 7.960000 8.850000 1.039047
25% 1239.874969 109.725000 14.380000 15.570000 1.171313
50% 1551.434998 120.580002 33.869999 17.268500 1.303297
75% 2073.010070 132.840004 37.827501 22.882500 1.369971
max 2872.870117 184.589996 117.480003 47.259998 1.598798

[7]: # To check Any Null values in dataset


gold_data.isnull().sum()

[7]: Date 0
SPX 0
GLD 0
USO 0
SLV 0
EUR/USD 0
dtype: int64

Correlation
[12]: # Assuming 'gold_data' is your DataFrame
# Convert the date column to datetime objects
gold_data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(gold_data['Date']) # Replace 'Date' with␣
↪the actual column name

2
# Extract numerical features from the datetime object if needed
gold_data['Year'] = gold_data['Date'].dt.year
gold_data['Month'] = gold_data['Date'].dt.month
gold_data['Day'] = gold_data['Date'].dt.day

# Now calculate the correlation


correlation = gold_data.corr()

[13]: #HeatMap
plt.figure(figsize=(8,8))
sns.heatmap(correlation,cbar=True,square=True,fmt='.
↪1f',annot=True,annot_kws={'size':8},cmap='Blues')

[13]: <Axes: >

3
[14]: #correlation Of GLD
print(correlation['GLD'])

Date 0.209118
SPX 0.049345
GLD 1.000000
USO -0.186360
SLV 0.866632
EUR/USD -0.024375
Year 0.206654
Month 0.020494
Day -0.000198
Name: GLD, dtype: float64

[16]: #distribution of gold price


sns.distplot(gold_data['GLD'], color='red')

<ipython-input-16-7518d28b8e5b>:2: UserWarning:

`distplot` is a deprecated function and will be removed in seaborn v0.14.0.

Please adapt your code to use either `displot` (a figure-level function with
similar flexibility) or `histplot` (an axes-level function for histograms).

For a guide to updating your code to use the new functions, please see
https://gist.github.com/mwaskom/de44147ed2974457ad6372750bbe5751

sns.distplot(gold_data['GLD'], color='red')

[16]: <Axes: xlabel='GLD', ylabel='Density'>

4
Spliting Features and Target
[17]: X=gold_data.drop(['Date','GLD'],axis=1)
Y=gold_data['GLD']

[19]: print(X)

SPX USO SLV EUR/USD Year Month Day


0 1447.160034 78.470001 15.1800 1.471692 2008 1 2
1 1447.160034 78.370003 15.2850 1.474491 2008 1 3
2 1411.630005 77.309998 15.1670 1.475492 2008 1 4
3 1416.180054 75.500000 15.0530 1.468299 2008 1 7
4 1390.189941 76.059998 15.5900 1.557099 2008 1 8
… … … … … … … …
2285 2671.919922 14.060000 15.5100 1.186789 2018 5 8
2286 2697.790039 14.370000 15.5300 1.184722 2018 5 9
2287 2723.070068 14.410000 15.7400 1.191753 2018 5 10
2288 2730.129883 14.380000 15.5600 1.193118 2018 5 14
2289 2725.780029 14.405800 15.4542 1.182033 2018 5 16

[2290 rows x 7 columns]

5
[20]: print(Y)

0 84.860001
1 85.570000
2 85.129997
3 84.769997
4 86.779999
…
2285 124.589996
2286 124.330002
2287 125.180000
2288 124.489998
2289 122.543800
Name: GLD, Length: 2290, dtype: float64
Spliting Into Training And Test data
[22]: X_train,X_test,Y_train,Y_test=train_test_split(X,Y,test_size=0.2,random_state=2)

[23]: print(X.shape,X_train.shape,X_test.shape)

(2290, 7) (1832, 7) (458, 7)


Model training
[25]: regressor=RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100) #default Number

[26]: regressor.fit(X_train,Y_train)

[26]: RandomForestRegressor()

Model Evaluation
[27]: #prediction on test Data
test_data_prediction=regressor.predict(X_test)

[ ]: print(test_data_prediction)

[29]: #R squarred Error


Error_score=metrics.r2_score(Y_test,test_data_prediction)
print("R squarred Error : ",Error_score)

R squarred Error : 0.9954394762121126


Compare Actual values and Predicted values
[30]: Y_test=list(Y_test)

[33]: plt.plot(Y_test,color='red',label='Actual Value')


plt.plot(test_data_prediction,color='yellow',label='Predicted Value')

6
[33]: [<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7f5c1fe04fd0>]

This project used Random Forest Regression to predict gold prices, achieving high accuracy by
leveraging historical data and economic indicators. The model’s effectiveness highlights the poten-
tial of machine learning in financial forecasting, offering valuable insights for investors and analysts.

1 Thank You!

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