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Performance Analysis of Classification Algorithms for Software Defects

Prediction by Mathematical Modelling & Simulations

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 Sindh Journal of Headways in Software Volume 2, Issue 1
Published Online 07-October-2023

Performance Analysis of Classification Algorithms for Software Defects Prediction

by Mathematical Modelling & Simulations

Shadab Yameen Shaikh

Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science,
University of Sindh, Jamshoro, 76080, Sindh, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Naseem Afzal Qureshi

Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science,
University of Karachi, Karachi, 75270, Sindh, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Muhammad Zohaib Khan

Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Institute of Trauma (SMBBIT), Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Muhammad Ali Khan

Industrial Engineering and Management,
Mehran University of Engineering & Technology, Jamshoro, 76062, Sindh, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Aisha Imroz
Avanza (Pvt.) Ltd, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Muhammad Ahmed Kalwar

Shafi (Pvt.) Limited Company, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected]

Received: 18th March 2023; Accepted: 17th August 2023; Published: 07th October 2023

Abstract: This study explores machine learning (ML) techniques for Software defects prediction (SDP) by using
Mathematical Modelling & Simulation. The SDP is also used in the critical systems of aviation, healthcare, manufacturing,
and robotics. Many organizations face difficulty in forecasting the accurate defect before software deployment which is
actually very crucial for estimating delivery time, maintenance efforts, and ensuring quality expectations. SDP enhances
software quality by spotting potential defects in the upkeep phase. The current models of SDP rely on static program metrics
for machine learning classifiers, but manual feature engineering may miss vital information impacting defect prediction
accuracy. This study initially explores the past SDP results then aims to develop methods by adapting to future anomaly
detection techniques. The study explores the various approaches of SDP which include K-Means methodology, Support
Vector Machines (SVM) linear, Random Forest (RF) & Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithms and discussed the current
models of SDP. The proposed SDP models are rigorously evaluated by using metrics like false alarm rate, precision, and
detection rate. The results show high accuracy for K-Means and MLP (99.67%), K-Means and SVML (99.19%), and K-
Means and RF (97.76%) for defect prediction.

Index Terms: Software defects prediction, Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, Machine Learning, Deep Learning,
Artificial Intelligence, Performance analysis.

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1. INTRODUCTION

Software defects prediction (SDP) is a critical area of research, focusing on identifying flaws in software applications
and proposing innovative methods to address them. As software systems grow in complexity, the need for maintainable,
high-quality, and cost-effective software becomes increasingly vital [1-3]. Early detection of flaws is essential to facilitate
prompt rectification, leading to improved software reliability and performance [4]. Manual code reviews are time-consuming
and impractical for large codebases, making automated SDP algorithms crucial to manage finite resources effectively [5-6].
Over the past three decades, software defect prediction has seen significant advancements, with various approaches
classifying software components as defect-prone or non-defect-prone, identifying defect associations, and estimating
remaining faults in software systems. This research focuses on developing software defect prediction models based on past
failure data and software parameters to classify modules and classes accordingly [7-8]. By concentrating testing resources
on error-prone areas, developers can achieve higher product quality within project timelines and budgets[9-11].Defect
identification, analysis & reduction is critical to improve organizational performance [12-14]. It contribute towards improved
organizational excellence [15]. Defect reduction improve customer retention in service organizations [16]. Software’s with
reduces/zero defects can improve information retrieval & knowledge management [17]. The employees of software
development organizations of Pakistan also face the tremendous work stress [18]. Modern and updated ICT applications also
contribute in the reduction of software defects [19-21]. Learning organizations have the proven records of performance
improvement in organizational operations by the implementation of quality software applications, AI & ML techniques [22-
28]. Many previous studies on SDP focused the susceptibility of software components by analysing metrics obtained from
the code [29]. Despite various attempts to utilise machine learning techniques, none of the methods have demonstrated
consistent reliability. Many organizations in Pakistan acknowledge the applications AI & ML software’s in the optimization
of operations but still lag behind [30-31]. The recent applied case studies of Pakistani organizations in the context of
optimization by better quality software applications include procurement report [32], routine report making [33], purchase
order [34], acquisition report [32], planning report [35], Supplier Price Evaluation Report [36], material delivery time
analysis [37], product mix & profit maximization [38], order costing analysis [39], production plan [40], demand
management [41], procurement report [34] and material cost comparative analysis [42]. Whereas the recent applications of
Pakistani hospitals in the context of optimization by better quality software applications include hospitals’ outpatient
departments [43-48] and emergency Health Care Units of Pakistan [49-50].This study employs supervised and unsupervised
learning techniques for software defect prediction, using K-Means clustering and Support Vector Machines Linear, RF, and
MLP algorithms for clustering, LR, and classification purposes. These techniques exhibit enhanced recall, accuracy, f1-
score, prediction, precision, clusters, and classifiers, promising improved defect prediction accuracy.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Performance Analysis of Software Defects Prediction is the area of concern for cyber security professionals due to
security threats and increasing phishing attacks [51-54]. Mathematical modelling, simulations, IoT, AI and ML are being
used effectively to evaluate the performance of SDP [55-59]. DL and Industry 4.0 are also the recent developments in the
techniques to improve the Cyber security and to safeguard the organizations’ critical systems from phishing attacks [60-65].
Performance Analysis of software has been performed by many experts with various Mathematical modelling &simulations
techniques [66-69]. Medical field is getting the remarkable results by using the machine learning techniques for the more
accurate diagnosis & prediction of diseases at the individual and public level [70-75]. The systematic review of SDP models
was performed by many researchers and the results of various models were compared [76-79]. The SDP models with ML &
empirical assessment were critically evaluated by the researchers and proposed frameworks were developed by them for
better results of Software Defects Prediction[9], [80]–[82]. Simulation can be used as an effective for SDP [83-85]. Numerous
projects have been successfully implemented SDP by simulation tools & techniques [86-88]. Propagation neural network
model, poisson regression, spiderhunt-based deep convolutional neural network classifier and discrete mycorrhiza
optimization nature-inspired algorithm are used effectively researchers for SDP [89-92]. Hassan et al. achieved more than
99% accuracy on the dataset with an integrated approach for sentiment classification and information retrieval techniques
[93]. Mathematical Modelling & Simulation is getting popularity for the prediction of software defects. The ROCUS,
Ayesian networks, Petri nets, AHP and boosting approach are amongst the effective Mathematical Modelling & Simulation
techniques for SDP[94], [97-98]. Machine Learning is also getting popularity for predicting software defects and researchers
consider it as effective techniques [99-102]. The recently completed software prediction projects are the quite evident of the
fact that machine learning also proved its worth in the field of SDP [103-107].Deep Learning is an effective AI based tool
for predicting software defects [108-110]. There are very few recently completed projects of software defects prediction
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projects by using deep learning technique but they have shown the remarkable results [111-115]. SVM is a type of supervised
learning algorithm which is comparatively new machine learning tool in the field of SDP to solve classification problems
[116-119]. Though there are very few recently completed projects of software defects prediction projects by using support
vector machine technique but they have proved the effectiveness in SDP [120-121].K-means clustering can be used
effectively to increase software defect prediction [122-124]. Researchers quoted the benefits & applications of K-means in
the various fields to predict the software defects [125-128].Practitioners used Random Forest in SDP projects and mentioned
its benefits [129-135]. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is a misnomer for a feedforward artificial neural network, consisting
of fully connected neurons with a nonlinear activation [136-138]. The recently completed software prediction projects are
the quite evident of the fact that MLP also proved its effectiveness in the field of SDP [139-142].

3. PROBLEM STATEMENT

There is the growing need of more accurate Software defects prediction (SDP) from modern complex systems to daily
routine systems. SDP is also used in the critical systems of aviation, healthcare, manufacturing, and robotics where the
prediction of accurate defect before software deployment is actually very crucial for estimating delivery time, maintenance
efforts, and ensuring quality expectations. Despite many developments still many organizations face difficulty in forecasting
the accurate defect before software deployment. SDP enhances software quality by spotting potential defects in the upkeep
phase. Several Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) & Machine Learning (ML) techniques are
in discussion for SDP. The current models of SDP rely on static program metrics for machine learning classifiers, but manual
feature engineering may miss vital information impacting defect prediction accuracy. The objective of this study is to
compare the previous models of SDP and their results then aims to develop methods by adapting to future anomaly detection
techniques. To achieve this, it is crucial to explore various machine learning approaches and prediction models that can
accurately predict software defects outcomes using the available dataset. The performance of these models needs to be
evaluated and measured. This research aims to address these challenges by utilizing the selected dataset and analyzing the
performance of different machine learning algorithms in developing prediction models. This paper is divided into four (4)
sections. The first section provides an introduction to the research study. Section 2 discusses the related work in the field of
research. Section 3 focuses on the results and discussion of various algorithm combinations used for predicting the software
defects. Lastly, the concluding section presents a statement on the most efficient algorithm combination.

4. BACKGROUND

4.1 Classification, Regression, And Clustering in Machine Learning

In machine learning, classification involves categorising different federation mechanisms into discrete groups and
subclasses based on their similarities. The systematic method of dividing systems into recognizable groupings and
subcategories depending on their commonalities is called classification. Many researchers used the concepts of classification,
regression and clustering in Machine Learning to analyse & investigate the diseases [143-147]. Linear regression, linear
classification, and Naive Bayes classifier are three common methods of categorization. Classifications are typically applied
to organised and labelled data. Figure 1 shows a range of classification techniques used in various operations.

Figure 1: Overview of Classification [148]

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 Linear and nonlinear regression models require different types of supervised and unsupervised learning methods due to
the diverse nature of the interactions between independent and dependent variables in each model. These approaches are
utilised to perform regression tasks.

Regression
Models

Simple Multiple
1 (Feature) 2* (Feature)

Linear Non-Linear Linear Non-Linear

Figure 2: Regression Models

Figure 2 depicts how machine learning algorithms utilize a range of regression properties, both unstructured and
structured data. Machine learning techniques employ both organized and unstructured data, as well as a variety of regression
features. Both of these non-linear and linear regression incorporates the first and second properties of the regression model.
Clustering is a particularly common kind of learning that is unsupervised, which has many uses across several sectors. A
cluster is a group of related pieces of information that have undergone isolation and processing based on a data machine
(ID).Figure 3 depicts numerous clusters of diverse things.

Figure3: Clustering [149]

5. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

This portion provides an overview of the process for developing a work breakdown structure for software defects
prediction (SDP).

1. The first step involves retrieving the dataset from Google Drive.
2. Next, the data undergoes various procedures such as data cleaning, feature extraction utilising methods like
(CountVectorizerandTfidfTransformer), pre-processing, and standardisation using (MinMaxScaler).
3. Standardisation requires the creation of a system to transform variable frequency and amplitude, such as
(0.98671539), and performing a standardisation analysis to acquire the output.

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 4. The K-Means clustering unsupervised machine learning technique is subsequently employed to enhance the
precision, recall, f1-score and accuracy of the model.
5. The data is then split into train and test data sets, with the train data size set at 0.75 percent and the test data
size set at 0.25 percent, to implement this technique.
6. Finally, the SVML, RF, and MPL algorithms are used to construct the ultimate model.

Figure 4 illustrates the software defects prediction (SDP) architecture, providing a clear perspective on the research
project and a brief summary of the work breakdown structure.

Figure 4 Proposed algorithm for Software Defects Prediction (SDP)

The flowchart depicts retrieving data from a database, pre-processing the data to normalise and standardise it using data
cleaning methods, and then using clustering and classification techniques to implement the processed training data (75%)
and test data (25%) for model validation. The algorithm is composed of two distinct sections: data pre-processing and
classification.

5.1 Preprocessing

During the early processing stage, we sanitise the data and apply clustering techniques to extract relevant information.
In order to achieve this, we explore two popular approaches, namely, K-Means clustering, which is explained below. Later,
in the classification stage, we perform additional data manipulation on the processed data.

5.1.1 Performance Analysis

Python is a language primarily used for scripting, which finds wide application in various domains such as
programming, machine learning, web development, and databases. In this study, the Anaconda Navigator ->Jupyter
Notebook GUI framework is employed and Python is used to link datasets and implement various algorithms such as K-
Means, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines Linear, Multi-layer Perceptron. Our dataset pertains to software defects
prediction (SDP) and involves predicting whether a software contains defects or not based on software bugs. The dataset
consists of 22 attributes or characteristics (columns) and 10,885 instances or observations (rows). We ran three separate
programs using the same dataset. The first program utilised K-Means and Multi-layer Perceptron (MPL), the second program
used K-Means and Support Vector Machines Linear (SVML), and the third program used K-Means and Random Forest
(RF). All of these programs were executed on a personal computer with the following configuration:

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 • The computer is equipped with an Intel Core (TM) i5-2520M (2nd Generation) CPU operating at 2.50
Gigahertz.
• It has a RAM capacity of 4 GB.
• It is running on a 64-bit OS, specifically Windows 10 (Home).
• It has a 500 GB hard disk.

5.1.2 Data Collection

We obtained the Software Defects Prediction (SDP) dataset from Kaggle, which is a platform hosting various machine
learning datasets. Ihsan & Aquil previously used this particular dataset in their research [150]. It comprises 10,885 instances
or observations, each with 22 attributes representing the specifications of software applications and their measures related to
SDP. The target class in this dataset represents the status of each outcome, with a total of 5,427 not-defects software bugs
and 5,458 defects software bugs [151]. Table 1 presents a concise summary of the parameters and features that are included
in the SDP dataset utilised in this research for the purpose of forecasting software defects.

Table 1 Original Dataset Used for Predicting Software Defects

Parameters of the
Characteristics of SDP
dataset

loc count of program statements

v(g) complexity of cyclomatic

ev(g) Intrinsic complexity

iv(g) Complexity of the design

n count of operands and operators

v Amount of space

l Length of the program

d adversity

i Intellect

e Exertion

b no of errors

T Time predictor

lOCode count of lines

lOComment total comment lines

lOBlank total whitespace lines

Count of lines with code and

lOCodeAndComment
comments

Uniq_Op Unique distinct Operators

Uniq_Opnd Unique distinct Operands

Total_Op Overall operator count

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 Total_Opnd Overall operator count

branchCount branch count of flowchart

defects defects reported

The goal of this project is to investigate the necessary steps for predicting software defects, including data normalisation,
pre-processing, simulation, and induction requirements. Other aspects such as critical criteria, complexity issues, post-
processing, and system effectiveness are also examined. The first step is to gather facts from the dataset, followed by
preparing and pre-processing the data, including normalisation and standardisation. Table 2 presents the resulting cleaned
and pre-processed dataset. Additionally, Figure 5 provides a visual representation of complex information without K-Means
execution. The X value is represented by a purple colour circle, and the Y value is represented by the yellow colour circle.
Table 2 Dataset for predicting software defects, which has been processed

22-Dimension

array ([[0.36223789, 0.60325949, 0.25972736, ..., 0.04290384, 0.99847326, 0.79664566],

[0.20296517, 0.47553557, 0.51124005, ..., 0.01224384, 0.39541578, 0.66811618],

[0.17949324, 0.12738392, 0.65493002, ..., 0.35573798, 0.03057093, 0.34464949], ...,

[0.9456746, 0.98671539, 0.38383904, ..., 0.52999682, 0.31716936, 0.70528904],

[0.13678812, 0.82731781, 0.71771077, ..., 0.02882109, 0.29340566, 0.69901713],

[0.69547178, 0.63604136, 0.42970602, ..., 0.64185376, 0.03466157, 0.37666046]])

Figure 5: Mixed Data Chat Software Defects Prediction (SDP)

5.1.3 Artificial Intelligence

“Artificial intelligence (AI) is a branch of computer science that focuses on developing smart computers capable of
performing tasks that typically require human intelligence. This field involves the creation of algorithms and models that
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enable computers to analyze data, make logical deductions, and generate predictions or conclusions” [76]. Artificial
intelligence encompasses various domains such as robotics, machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision,
and more. Its objective is to imitate and automate cognitive functions like decision-making, pattern recognition, and problem-
solving.

5.1.4 K-Means Clustering Algorithm

The most popular kind of unsupervised learning, known as clustering, has a wide range of uses and widespread adoption
in several fields. In order to create a set of data identified as clustering, information must be broken up and processed by a
computer. Every cluster is assigned a distinctive identification number for identification purposes. The unsupervised K-
means method is a machine learning technique that classifies data into two categories: unstructured and mixed. The dataset
begins with a set of randomly selected average values that serve as the starting point for each subsequent group. The location
of the intermediate values is then calculated to improve the clustering [152]. The fundamental principles that underpin the
K-means algorithm are as follows:

1. Identify the most suitable number of clusters (K) for use in the clustering process
2. Sort the dataset and randomly select K values to be the centroids before calculating the centroids.
3. After the centroids no longer change, identify the clusters. However, the overall approach to clustering the data
remains the same.
4. Calculate the number of patterned lengths between each centroid and the data points.
5. Allocate each data point to the cluster that is closest to it.
6. Calculate the sum of all data points assigned to each cluster to obtain the cluster centroids.
7. Complete the clustering process.

Several scientific methods and metrics, such as Euclidean, Manhattan, and Hamming measures, were employed to
classify each program in the dataset.

Euclidean √∑𝑘𝑖=1 (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖)2 Equation 1

Manhattan ∑𝑘𝑖=1 |𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖| Equation 2

Minkowski (∑𝑘𝑖=1 (|𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖|)𝑞)1/𝑞 Equation 3

In this processing, the standard collection is used to create mixed data representations through a pre-processing
technique. K-Means was used to filter and process large datasets, making it easier to understand the data and remove
redundant information. Through the utilisation of clustering, we were able to detect two distinct clusters and assign a
likelihood score to each piece of information in order to determine its membership within a given cluster. This method
resulted in a member matrix that shows the association between each sample and its respective cluster. The approach involves
using a clustering methodology, such as the K-Means algorithm and centroid clustering values, and executing it on a 22-
dimensional dataset with binary-class data. Each data point is associated with a centroid based on the distance between them.
The closer the cluster is to the data centroid, the stronger the association. The SDP dataset is a 22-dimensional dataset that
includes features related to software defects prediction values and an attribute that targets property cluster number. We have
briefly discussed the K-Means Clustering centroid value and included Figures 6 and 7 to illustrate the clusters and the sum
of squared error line charts for the 22-Dimensional binary-class datasets, respectively, after transforming unstructured
material into structured data.

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 Table 3 K-Means Clustering Centroid Value

Array ([[0.49914726, 0.49098853, 0.5040306, 0.48515271, 0.51490666, 0.51906228,

0.47665096, 0.4984902, 0.49849351, 0.51083994, 0.50353293, 0.50095931, 0.50579481,
0.5030984, 0.49457925, 0.750223, 0.50110969, 0.49787315, 0.50347232, 0.49546553,
0.48247945, 0.48096822],

[0.50335415, 0.50101048, 0.48892057, 0.51358704, 0.48948397,0.48769329,

0.51316378, 0.50301923, 0.50445169, 0.49481033, 0.48963746, 0.49711861, 0.49109309,
0.49119229, 0.51433448, 0.25323482, 0.50181001, 0.50683171, 0.49787394, 0.50327462,
0.51617455, 0.51853753]])

Table 4 K-Means Two Clusters Pre-processed Software Defects Prediction (SDP) Dataset

array ([[0.36223789, 0.60325949, 0.25972736, ..., 0.04290384, 0.99847326, 0.79664566],

[0.20296517, 0.47553557, 0.51124005, ..., 0.01224384, 0.39541578, 0.66811618],

[0.17949324, 0.12738392, 0.65493002, ..., 0.35573798, 0.03057093, 0.34464949] ...,

[0.9456746, 0.98671539, 0.38383904, ..., 0.52999682, 0.31716936, 0.70528904],

[0.13678812, 0.82731781, 0.71771077, ..., 0.02882109, 0.29340566, 0.69901713],

[0.69547178, 0.63604136, 0.42970602, ..., 0.64185376, 0.03466157, 0.37666046]])

Figure 6: K-Means Two Clusters Software Defects Prediction (SDP)

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 Figure 7: K-Means Sum of Squared Error Line Chart

To evaluate the effectiveness of CFD using both clustering methods, precision, recall, and f-measure are used. A concern
score is determined by measuring how much the system deviates from the standard, and the result is classified as valid,
suspicious, or illegal.

5.2 Classification

The Classification algorithm is a type of supervised learning that categorises observed data using training data. The
process of grouping observed data into different categories or sections is called classification. To determine which classifier
performs the best in our dataset, we test several different classifiers.

5.2.1. Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP) Algorithm

An advanced optimization algorithm called the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) is composed of multiple perceptron’s.
MLP consists of an input layer that receives input data, an output layer that generates judgments or estimates based on the
input, and an arbitrary number of hidden layers that serve as the MLP computational power. By varying the number of hidden
layers, the MLP is capable of approximating any continuous function”[153], [154]. In cases where datasets are not
conditionally independent, the MLP overcomes this challenge by employing participants to develop machine learning and
prediction models with a more flexible and complex framework. This approach, often used in supervised learning, addresses
challenges related to difficult data patterns and enables scientific advancements in various fields. Some of these approaches,
such as Linear, Non-linear Regression, Sigmoid, and Cost Linear, are constructed based on the principles of classification.
1
Sigmoid 𝑆 (𝑧) = Equation 4
(1 + 𝑒 −𝑧 )

Linear Regression 𝑦 = 𝑒^(𝑏0 + 𝑏1 ∗ 𝑥) / (1 + 𝑒^(𝑏0 + 𝑏1 ∗ 𝑥)) Equation 5

Cost Linear Regression (𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 (ℎ𝜃(𝑥), 𝑦)) = −𝑙𝑜𝑔 (ℎ𝜃(𝑥)), 𝑖𝑓 𝑦 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 Equation 6

(𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 (ℎ𝜃(𝑥), 𝑦)) = − 𝑙𝑜𝑔 (1 − ℎ𝜃(𝑥)), 𝑖𝑓 𝑦 = 0

Nonlinear Regression 𝑌 = 𝑓(𝑋, 𝛽) + 𝜀 Equation 7

The MLP algorithm operates as follows:

1. Similar to the perceptron, the MLP processes input data and parameters between the input and hidden layer
which undergo partial derivatives, resulting in a value in the hidden layer that is not incremented, unlike the
behaviour of an activation function
2. Activation functions like sigmoid, rectified linear units, and tanh are utilised in the hidden layers of MLP to
transfer the computed output to the visible layer."
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 3. After the activation function generates the anticipated output in the visible layer, the corresponding partial
derivatives are extracted and transmitted to another layer within MLP.
4. Steps two and three are then iteratively repeated until the final output is achieved through this process
5. The obtained estimates serve as the output to generate results for either a feed-forward technique utilising the
chosen activation methods for MLP (when working with training data), or a selection based on the results
(when working with testing data)."

During training, MLP predicts labels for historical data and attempts to fit predictions to these labels to predict values
for new data. The outcome of the MLP confusion matrix is presented in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Confusion Matrix Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP) Algorithm

At the time of conducting this research, the confusion matrix was described as [[A B] [C D]], where

• A show the count of accurately predicted negative instances

• B shows the count of positive instances that were incorrectly predicted,
• C represents the number of instances that were incorrectly predicted as negative, and
• D represents the number of instances that were correctly predicted as positive.

If we assume that Perceptron's Multilayer (MLP) model is appropriate for this scenario, then the confusion matrix was
useful in determining the predicted labels for our detection and prediction.

Figure 9: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve for Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP)

The results of using the Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP) algorithm on a synthetic dataset can be visualised through the
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, as shown in Figure 9. In this study, we utilised the concept of ROC curves

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to evaluate the accuracy of our model's predictions for user reviews ratings. This analysis allows us to better understand
prediction patterns and improve the overall precision of our estimation method.

Figure 10: Model Accuracy Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP) Algorithm

Figure 11: Model Loss Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP) Algorithm

To evaluate our model's performance in predicting software defects, we utilised the Multi-Layer Perceptron’s (MLP)
Algorithm and assessed its accuracy and loss metrics. By doing so, we aimed to improve the accuracy of our prediction
approach while ensuring that it fulfils software defect prediction patterns consistently. Figures 9 and 10 depict the model
accuracy and loss, respectively, which were significant indicators in our analysis. Specifically, the MLP model achieved a
train accuracy of 0.97 and a test accuracy of 0.97 (Figure 9), while the train loss was 0.040 and the test loss was 0.40 (Figure
10).

5.2.2. Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) Algorithm

The Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) is a supervised learning approach used for regression and classification
tasks. This algorithm works by partitioning mixed classes on a graph into separate groups, known as Maximum Margin
Higher dimensional space. The SVML model identifies the smallest piece of data between two categories and employs
various mathematical techniques such as linear, nonlinear, and kernel functions (polynomial, radial base function (RBF), and
sigmoid) to achieve this separation. In particular, decision boundary support vectors are used to separate data points for
different classes, with the two closest points referred to as the support vector [155-156]. The SVM technique utilises
mathematical classification and regression functions such as Linear SVM, Non-linear SVM, and Kernel function.
Table 5 SVM Mathematical Equations

xi.xj
Linear SVM Model

SVM Non-Linear ᶲ (xi).ᶲ (xj)

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 Function of Kernel k(xi.xj)

The SVML algorithm follows a set of crucial steps.

1. Firstly, it identifies the appropriate hyperplanes that can effectively separate the data and maximise the margins
between the different classes.
2. Additionally, it can also handle non-linearly separable data using various techniques to prevent
misinterpretation.
3. Secondly, it transforms the input data into a higher dimensional space where it becomes easier to identify
surface areas and make immediate selections. Finally, it restructures the challenge so that the data can be
accurately transcribed to this high-dimensional space.

Once the algorithm is trained, it can be used to predict the labels for both old and new data values. The goal is to make
these predictions match the actual labels as closely as possible. Figure 12 shows the resulting confusion matrix for the SVML
predictions.

Figure 12: Confusion Matrix Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) Algorithm

Figure 13: Confusion Matrix Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) Algorithm

ROC analysis is a method used to evaluate how well a classifier model performs when the threshold for classifying data
is changed. This analysis is closely related to cost/benefit research, where the costs and benefits of decisions are taken into

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consideration. Figure 13 shows the SVML ROC curve, which illustrates the performance of a support vector machine with
a linear kernel at different threshold values.

Figure 14: Model Accuracy Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) Algorithm

Figure 15: Model Loss Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) Algorithm

The statement describes the performance of the Support Vector Machine with Linear (SVML) algorithm on a dataset,
as shown in Figures 14 and 15. According to the statement, in Figure 14, the accuracy of the SVML algorithm was 0.96 on
the training data and 0.96 on the testing data. This means that the algorithm was able to accurately classify 96% of the data
points in both the training and testing sets. In Figure 15, the model loss for the SVML algorithm was 0.050 on the training
data and 0.050 on the testing data. Model loss is a measure of how well the algorithm is able to predict the correct class for
each input, so a lower model loss indicates better performance. Therefore, the statement suggests that the SVML algorithm
performed well on both accuracy and model loss measures for this dataset.

5.2.3. Random Forest (Rf) Algorithm

The Random Forest (RF) technique is a type of machine learning method that helps to address classifier problems. It
involves using various classifiers to create a complex problem-solving system that employs classifying approaches. By
combining multiple categories, RF can tackle complicated issues and improve the system's efficiency. RF is based on
predictions from classification trees and determines their effectiveness by making assumptions and estimating the
culmination of multiple trees. As the number of nodes increases, the output improves, reducing the limitations of a Decision
Tree (DT) [157-158].

1. The RF process starts by randomly selecting observations based on available data.

2. The program then creates a tree structure for each instance, and the outcomes for every tree structure are
generated.
3. During this stage, each result is decided.
4. Ultimately, the prediction outcome with the highest probability is selected as the preferred result.
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Copyright © 2022 SJHSE Sindh Journal of Headways in Software Engineering, Volume 02, Issue 01
 The RF Algorithm also employs various mathematical functions or formulas, such as Gini (Coefficient, Index, or Ratio),
Entropy and Mean Squared Error (MSE) [159]. These procedures can be used as examples to evaluate the approach.

Table 6 Random Forest Mathematical Equations

𝑁
1
Mean Squared Error (MSE) = √∑ (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖)2
𝑁
𝑖=1

Gini Coefficient 𝐺𝑖𝑛𝑖 = 1 ∑ (𝑝𝑖 )2

𝑖=1

Entropy 𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑦 = ∑ − 𝑝𝑖 ∗ 𝑙𝑜𝑔2 (𝑝𝑖 )

𝑖=1

We applied the RF technique to our dataset and assigned labels to the previous data values. This helped us predict the
value of the data. When we utilise the RF approach to ensure that our predictions align with the categories during preparation,
the results are shown in the matrix in Figure 16.

Figure 16: Confusion Matrix Random Forest (RF) Algorithm

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 Figure 17: Random Forest (RF)Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC Curve)

The ROC analysis is a method to evaluate the systematic performance of a classifier model when its discriminatory
threshold is altered. This analysis is closely linked to cost-benefit research in making rational decisions. Figure 17 shows the
result of the curve.

Figure 18: Model Accuracy Random Forest (RF) Algorithm

Figure 19: Model Loss Random Forest (RF) Algorithm

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 Figure 18, which depicts the Model Accuracy resulting from the Random Forest (RF) Algorithm, shows that the
accuracy for the training data was 0.975 and for the test data was 0.976. Figure 19, which shows the Model Loss resulting
from the Random Forest (RF) Algorithm, indicates that the loss for the training data was 0.04, and for the test data, it was
0.03.

6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Machine learning is a practical technique that enables algorithms to tackle challenges without being explicitly
programmed. Deep learning is currently the most successful form of machine learning, due to its improved processes,
computing power, and access to large datasets. However, traditional machine learning techniques still play a critical role in
industry applications. This study proposes an approach for predicting and detecting software defects that combines both
machine learning and deep learning techniques, using data from previous software defect incidents. Our research examines
the characteristics of individuals who have experienced software defects and the types of defects that they are likely to
encounter. To identify software defects accurately, we combine multiple algorithms, including K-Means, Multi-layer
Perceptron (MPL), K-Means, Support Vector Machines Linear (SVML), and K-Means, Random Forest (RF). Our most
accurate combination of methods is achieved by combining K-Means and Multi-layer Perceptron (MPL), followed by K-
Means and Support Vector Machines Linear (SVML), and K-Means and Random Forest (RF) as the third-ranked
combination. The accuracy and other performance parameters of each combination are presented in Table 6 and Table 7.
Table 7 Accuracy of Models that use a Combination of Algorithms for Predicting Software Defects

Hybrid Algorithm Accuracy of Algorithms

Mini-Batch K-means [156] 63.57%

Perceptron [156] 71.87%

PAC [160] 77.53%

GNB [156] 81.50%

KNN [156] 82.82%

QDA [156] 83.02%

GMM [156] 83.26%

LGBM [156] 85.99%

ET [156] 87.76%

XGBoost[156] 88.14%

RF [156] 88.18%

MVC [156] 88.27%

STC [156] 88.63

K-Means, Random Forest (RF)

97.7590007347538
Proposed Method

K-Means, Support Vector Machine (SVM)

99.1917707567964
Proposed Method

K-Means, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) 99.669360764144

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 Proposed Method

Table 8 Combination of Algorithms Parameter Score for Software Defects Prediction (SDP)

Parameter K-Means, K-Means, K-Means,

S/No.
Score RF Algorithm SVM Algorithm MLP Algorithm

1 Precision 0.97765704 0.99193050 0.99669192

2 Recall 0.97752471 0.99192200 0.99669540

3 F1-Score 0.97758017 0.99191769 0.99669353

4 Sensitivity 0.98122743 0.99484915 0.99634502

5 Specificity 0.97382198 0.98899486 0.99704579

According to the findings depicted in Figure 20 and Figure 21, it is evident that the K-Means and Multi-layer Perceptron
(MLP) combination has achieved the highest accuracy level possible. Nevertheless, the combination of K-Means and Support
Vector Machines Linear (SVML) ranked second, with the combination of K-Means and Random Forest (RF) ranking third

Figure 20: Combination of Algorithms Model Accuracy Software Defects Prediction (SDP) of Prediction

Based on the results, the graph indicating accuracy levels also shows that the predictions made by the combinations

are at their maximum

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 Figure 21: Combination of Algorithms Parameter Score Software Defects Prediction (SDP)

We have the ability to adjust or restrict the level of accuracy depending on our needs. For example, the Parameter Score
Precision, Recall, F1-Score Sensitivity, and Specificity are currently achieving optimal accuracy.

7. CONCLUSION

This study explored the Software Defects Prediction (SDP) models by using Mathematical Modelling & Simulation
methods. Many organizations use defects predicting software’s in their critical operations like aviation’s, healthcare services,
manufacturing operations and robotics. Sometimes, it is very difficult for these organizations to predict the defect accurately
before software deployment and therefore this is the matter of great concern for them.It is concluded that SDP will remain
the good area for research because despite many studies during the past three decades to utilise machine learning techniques,
none of the methods have demonstrated consistent reliability. It is also concluded SDP is attractive area of research as it
focus on identifying flaws in software applications and proposing innovative methods to address them. It is also concluded
that with the increasing use of software’s in the routine operations of our corporate & social life, the need for maintainable,
high-quality, and cost-effective software becomes increasingly vital. It is observed that early detection of defects makes good
impact to facilitate prompt rectification which then lead to improved software reliability and performance. The current
models of SDP rely on static program metrics for machine learning classifiers, but manual feature engineering may miss
vital information impacting defect prediction accuracy. This study initially explores the past SDP results then aims to develop
methods by adapting to future anomaly detection techniques. The study explores the various approaches of SDP which
include K-Means methodology, Support Vector Machines Linear (SVML), Random Forest (RF) & Multi-layer Perceptron
(MLP) algorithms and discussed the current models of SDP. The proposed SDP models are rigorously evaluated by using
metrics like false alarm rate, precision, and detection rate. The results show high accuracy for K-Means and MLP (99.67%),
K-Means and SVML (99.19%), and K-Means and RF (97.76%) for defect prediction.

Acknowledgment

The authors of the present research would like to acknowledge the services of Kaggle, which is a platform hosting various
machine learning datasets. The accessed data of Kaggle was very helpful in the evaluating the performance of current models
of Software defects prediction (SDP). We are very thankful to our friends, teachers, professional, colleagues and well wishers
at the department, university and fields. We are also very thankful to the administrative and technical support from the
department, university for their cooperation and support. We are especially thankful to the HEC Pakistan digital library
services to provide the free access to the valuable databases and relevant books, magazines and journals.

Conflict of Interest

There was no conflict of interest among the authors of the present research paper.

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Authors’ Profiles

Shadab Yameen Shaikh was born in Pakistan. She has completed her graduation from the Institute of Mathematics and
Computer Science, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan. She has attended various national & international
conferences. She has also participated in many professional seminars, workshops, symposia and trainings. Her research
interests include Mathematical Modeling, Statistical Analysis, Simulation, Data Science and Artificial Intelligence.

Naseem Afzal Qureshi was born in Pakistan. She has completed her graduation from the Department of Computer Science,
Faculty of Science, University of Karachi, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan. She has attended various national & international
conferences. She has also participated in many professional seminars, workshops, symposia and trainings. Her research
interests include Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Cyber Security, Internet of Things
and Cloud Computing. She has authored and presented research papers at the national & international conferences and
journals.

Muhammad Zohaib Khan was born in Pakistan. He has received Master degree in Computer Science from Sindh
Madressatul Islam University, Karachi, Pakistan and Bachelor degree in Computer Science from the University of Sindh,
Jamshoro, Pakistan. He has worked as an IT Engineer in the Department of IT, Sindh Public Procurement Regulatory
Authority from 2017 to 2019. He is currently works as Software and Data Engineer, in the Department of IT, Shaheed
Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Institute of Trauma. He has authored and presented various research papers at the national &
international conferences and journals. His research interests include Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning,
Deep Learning, and the Internet of Things.

Muhammad Ali Khan was born in Pakistan and currently works as Assistant Professor in the Department of Industrial
Engineering and Management, Mehran UET, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan. He is pursuing his PhD in the same department. He
has completed his Bachelor of Engineering, PGD and Master of Engineering in Industrial Engineering and Management. He
has also completed his MBA in Industrial Management from IoBM, Karachi, Pakistan. He has authored various research
papers for conferences and journals. He has participated in many professional seminars, workshops, symposia and trainings.
He does research in diversified fields of Industrial Engineering. The current projects are related to Lean manufacturing, Six
Sigma, Project management, Operations management; MIS and Entrepreneurship. He has also earned various certifications
in his areas of research.

Aisha Imroz was born in Pakistan. She is doing Master degree in Computer Science from the Sindh Madressatul Islam
University, Karachi, Pakistan. She currently works as a Software Engineer at Avanza Solutions (Pvt.) Ltd. She has attended
various national & international conferences. She has also participated in many professional seminars, workshops, symposia
and trainings. Her research interests include Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Cyber
Security, Internet of Things, Cloud Computing, and the Medical Science.

Muhammad Ahmed Kalwar was born in Pakistan and currently works as an Assistant Manager (Production) in a footwear
industry. He has completed his Bachelor & Master of Engineering in Industrial Engineering and Management from the
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management of Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro,
Sindh, Pakistan. During his Master of Engineering, he has also served as Teaching Assistant in the same department. He has
authored and presented various research papers at the national & international conferences and journals. His areas of interest
are Operations Research, Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling & Simulation.

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Copyright © 2022 SJHSE Sindh Journal of Headways in Software Engineering, Volume 02, Issue 01

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