VULN MOD Fragility Compendium 201501 v03 1
VULN MOD Fragility Compendium 201501 v03 1
VULN MOD Fragility Compendium 201501 v03 1
GEM
global earthquake model
Existing
Empirical
Vulnerability
and
Fragility
Functions:
Compendium
and
Guide
for
Selection
Vulnerability
Global
Component
Project
Version:
1.0
Author(s):
T.
Rossetto,
I.
Ioannou,
D.N.
Grant
Date:
July,
2015
Copyright
©
2015
T.
Rossetto,
I.
Ioannou,
D.N.Grant
Except
where
otherwise
noted
this
work
is
made
available
under
the
terms
of
Creative
Commons
Attribution-‐ShareAlike
4.0
(CC
BY-‐SA
4.0).
The
views
and
interpretations
in
this
document
are
those
of
the
individual
author(s)
and
should
not
be
attributed
to
the
GEM
Foundation.
With
them
also
lies
the
responsibility
for
the
scientific
and
technical
data
presented.
The
authors
do
not
guarantee
that
the
information
in
this
report
is
completely
accurate.
Citation:
Rossetto,
T.,
Ioannou,
I.,
Grant,
D.N.
(2015)
Existing
Empirical
Fragility
and
Vulnerability
Functions:
Compendium
and
Guide
for
Selection,
GEM
Technical
Report
2015-‐1,
10.13117/GEM.VULN-‐MOD.TR2015.01.
www.globalquakemodel.org
ii
ABSTRACT
This
document
reviews
existing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
worldwide
collected
until
April
2014
in
terms
of
their
characteristics,
data
sources,
and
statistical
modelling
techniques.
A
qualitative
rating
system
is
described
and
applied
to
all
reviewed
functions
to
aid
users
to
choose
between
existing
functions
for
use
in
seismic
risk
assessments.
The
MS
Access
database
developed
by
GEM
VEM
of
all
reviewed
empirical
functions
and
associated
ratings
is
also
described
in
this
document.
The
database
may
be
freely
downloaded
and
includes
all
existing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions.
Keywords:
empirical;
fragility
functions;
vulnerability
functions;
rating
system
iii
iv
4.4
Overview
of
Quality
Ratings
of
Existing
Functions
................................................................................
47
5
Final
Comments
.............................................................................................................................................
48
REFERENCES
........................................................................................................................................................
49
APPENDIX
A
Tabulated
Data
for
Compendium
.................................................................................................
I
APPENDIX
B
Rating
of
Existing
Empirical
Vulnerability
and
Fragility
Functions
..............................................
XI
v
vi
1
1 Introduction
In
seismic
risk
assessment,
vulnerability
functions
express
the
likelihood
that
assets
at
risk
(e.g.
buildings,
people)
will
sustain
varying
degrees
of
loss
over
a
range
of
earthquake
ground
motion
intensities.
In
the
GEM
Vulnerability
Estimation
Methods
(GEM
VEM)
working
group,
the
seismic
loss
is
expressed
in
terms
of
the
cost
of
the
direct
damage,
casualties,
and
downtime.
In
addition,
ground
shaking
is
considered
the
only
source
of
seismic
damage
to
the
building
inventory.
Vulnerability
functions
are
based
on
the
statistical
analysis
of
loss
values
recorded,
simulated,
or
assumed
over
a
range
of
ground
motion
severities.
The
loss
statistics
can
be
obtained
from
past
earthquake
observations,
analytical
or
numerical
studies,
expert
judgement,
or
a
combination
of
these.
This
document
focuses
on
the
review
and
rating
of
existing
empirical
vulnerability
functions
developed
from
post-‐earthquake
observations.
Other
GEM
VEM
reports
review
and
rate
existing
vulnerability
functions
developed
by
analytical
methods
and
engineering
judgement
(D’Ayala
et
al,
2015;
Jaiswal
et
al,
2012).
A
recent
study
instead
(Rossetto
et
al,
2014)
attempts
to
harmonise
the
ranking
system
for
the
selection
of
the
best
fragility
functions
from
available
analytical
and
empirical
functions.
Post-‐earthquake
surveys
of
the
performance
of
asset
classes
are
commonly
regarded
to
be
the
most
realistic
source
of
loss
statistics,
since
all
aspects
of
an
earthquake
source
as
well
as
the
wide
variety
of
path,
site,
foundation,
exposure,
structural
and
non-‐structural
components
are,
at
least
in
theory,
represented
in
the
sample.
These
observations
collected
after
one
or
more
seismic
events
are
effectively
considered
capable
to
predict
the
vulnerability
of
specified
assets
for
ground
motion
intensities
occurring
in
future
events.
However,
empirical
vulnerability
curves
may
not
yield
reliable
predictions
given
the
typically
poor
quality
and
(often)
quantity
of
available
observations
and
the
often
questionable
procedures
adopted
to
capture
the
uncertainty
in
the
observations.
Furthermore,
empirical
vulnerability
curves
constructed
from
data
obtained
from
a
single
event
may
not
appropriately
account
for
the
variability
in
structural
response
due
to
aleatory
uncertainty
in
the
characteristics
of
the
ground
shaking
(e.g.
number
of
cycles,
duration
or
frequency
content
of
the
ground
motion)
at
any
given
intensity.
This
perhaps
makes
them
unable
to
reliably
predict
the
vulnerability
of
this
building
class
affected
by
a
future
event.
By
contrast,
databases
corresponding
to
multiple
seismic
events
from
diverse
tectonic
environments
might
be
associated
with
observations
from
buildings
having
considerably
diverse
structural
characteristics,
resulting
in
functions
with
very
large
uncertainties
and
questionable
applicability
(Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003).
Empirical
vulnerability
functions
can
be
constructed
directly
from
past
earthquake
observations
of
losses
collected
over
sites
affected
by
different
intensities
of
strong
ground
motion.
If
an
intensity
measure
level
(IML)
has
not
been
recorded
at
each
site,
one
can
be
assigned
using
an
appropriate
ground-‐motion
prediction
equation.
A
model
is
typically
fit
to
the
data
so
as
to
minimise
hindcasting
errors.
Commonly
this
is
done
through
regression
analysis,
which
aims
to
estimate
the
parameters
of
a
chosen
functional
form.
Such
“direct”
vulnerability
curves
are
often
developed
for
the
estimation
of
casualties
or
economic
losses
at
a
national
or
regional
level
and
may
or
may
not
distinguish
between
casualties
associated
with
different
building
classes
(Jaiswal
and
Wald
2010;
2013).
An
alternative
“indirect”
procedure
involves
constructing
empirical
vulnerability
functions
through
the
coupling
of
the
empirical
fragility
of
given
building
class
located
in
the
affected
area,
with
appropriate
damage-‐to-‐loss
functions,
which
convert
the
damage
estimates
to
loss
estimates.
In
this
case,
the
empirical
2
fragility
functions
express
the
likelihood
of
differing
levels
of
damage
sustained
by
a
structure
class
estimated
from
post-‐earthquake
building
damage
survey
data.
Similar
to
the
direct
functions,
an
IML
is
typically
assigned
in
each
site
using
an
appropriate
ground-‐motion
prediction
equation
due
to
the
scarcity
of
ground
motion
recordings.
The
damage-‐to-‐loss
functions
may
be
empirical
in
nature
if
based
on
field
observations
and
specific
surveys,
or
they
can
be
based
on
expert
judgement.
A
detailed
review
of
these
functions
can
be
found
in
the
GEM
report
by
Rossetto
et
al
(2015).
Both
direct
and
indirect
empirical
vulnerability
assessment
procedures
require
the
quantification
and
modelling
of
substantial
uncertainty
from
a
number
of
sources.
Depending
on
the
model,
aleatory
(inherent
in
the
model)
and
epistemic
(due
to
lack
of
knowledge
or
modelling
capabilities)
components
of
this
uncertainty
can
be
identified.
This
classification
of
uncertainty
may
assist
the
user
to
make
informed
decisions
on
how
to
improve
the
model.
In
empirical
vulnerability
functions,
aleatory
uncertainty
is
introduced
by
the
natural
variation
in
earthquakes
and
their
resulting
ground
shaking,
or
the
variation
of
the
seismic
response
of
the
buildings
of
a
given
class.
Epistemic
uncertainty
is
introduced
mainly
by
the
low
quantity
and/or
quality
of
the
damage/loss
databases
and
the
inability
to
account
for
the
complete
characteristics
of
the
ground
shaking
in
the
selection
of
measures
of
the
ground
motion
intensity.
Not
every
source
of
uncertainty
is
modelled
in
existing
studies,
which
typically
do
not
appropriately
communicate
the
overall
uncertainty
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
and
are
often
incapable
to
distinguish
the
effect
of
the
two
components,
i.e.
aleatory
and
epistemic.
This
document
presents
a
review
of
existing
empirical
vulnerability
functions
for
buildings
constructed
using
“direct”
and
“indirect”
approaches
and
published
until
April
2014.
As
part
of
the
latter,
it
also
reviews
existing
empirical
fragility
functions
which
have
(or
not)
been
used
for
vulnerability
assessment.
This
is
because
more
research
has
been
done
to
date
on
fragility
than
vulnerability,
and
lessons
learned
from
the
former
can
be
applied
to
the
latter.
The
review
highlights
issues
related
to:
the
functional
form
of
the
relationships,
quality
issues
regarding
the
loss/damage
databases
and
the
ground
motion
intensity
as
well
as
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment
and
validation
procedures.
A
qualitative
rating
system
is
also
proposed
and
applied
to
the
reviewed
functions
to
aid
users
to
assess
the
quality
of
existing
empirical
functions
for
use
in
future
seismic
risk
studies.
Finally,
the
content
of
the
MS
Access
2010
database
(here
called
“Compendium”)
of
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions
is
described.
This
compendium
has
been
compiled
specifically
for
GEM
and
is
freely
available
to
download
from
the
GEM
Nexus
site
and
the
EPICentre
website
(http://www.epicentreonline.com/).
3
This
chapter
presents
a
review
of
existing
methodologies
for
constructing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions.
The
review
is
organised
in
terms
of
the
aspects
of
the
fragility
or
vulnerability
functions
deemed
important,
which
are
listed
in
the
first
column
of
Table
2.1.
As
many
of
these
aspects
relate
both
to
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
these
are
treated
together
in
the
following
sections.
The
main
characteristics
of
the
individual
functions
mentioned
can
be
found
in
Table
A.3
to
Table
A.6
in
Appendix
A.
Table
2.1.
Important
aspects
of
reviewed
vulnerability
and
fragility
assessment
methodologies.
Form
of
Relationship:
Discrete.
Continuous
function.
Damage
or
Loss
Damage
Damage
scale.
Database
Quality:
Characterisation:
Consideration
of
non-‐structural
damage.
Loss
Measures
of
economic
loss,
casualty
and
downtime.
Characterisation:
Building
Single
or
multiple
building
classes.
Classification:
Data
Quality:
Post-‐earthquake
survey
method.
Coverage
error
in
surveys.
Response
error
in
the
surveys.
Measurement
error
in
surveys.
Degree
of
refinement
in
building
class
definition.
Number
of
damage
states
(DS).
Data
Quantity:
Country/Countries
of
data
origin.
Number
of
seismic
events.
Structural
unit.
Quantity
of
data
in
each
isoseismic
unit
(e.g.
number
of
buildings
or
loss
observations).
Range
of
IM
and
DS
covered
by
data.
Total
number
of
data.
Quality
of
Ground
Intensity
Measure
(IM).
Motion
Intensity:
Isoseismic
unit
(e.g.
zip-‐code
area,
town
etc.).
IM
estimation
method
(e.g.
GMPE
or
recorded).
Statistical
Modelling
Data
manipulation
or
combination.
Techniques:
Relationship
model.
Optimisation
method.
Method
of
conversion
of
damage
to
loss
in
“indirect”
vulnerability
curves.
Treatment
and
communication
of
uncertainty
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
curves.
Validation
With
independent
data.
Procedures:
With
other
existing
functions/methods.
4
Vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
correlate
loss
and
damage,
respectively,
to
ground
motion
intensity
and
their
form
is
found
to
be
either
discrete
or
continuous.
This
section
discusses
the
general
forms
of
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
found
in
the
literature,
with
a
detailed
discussion
of
the
functional
shapes
and
parameters
of
the
functions
provided
in
Section
2.4.3.
In
the
case
of
empirical
fragility
assessment,
the
vast
majority
of
existing
functions
are
expressed
either
in
terms
of
damage
probability
matrices
(e.g.
Whitman
et
al,
1973;
Yang
et
al,
1989;
Gulkan
et
al,
1992;
Decanini
et
al,
2004;
Eleftheriadou
and
Karampinis,
2008)
or
fragility
curves
(Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003;
Colombi
et
al,
2008;
Rota
et
al,
2008;
Liel
and
Lynch,
2009).
Damage
probability
matrices
(DPM)
are
composed
of
sets
of
values
defining
the
probability
of
a
level
of
damage
being
reached
in
a
given
building
class
at
specified
intensity
measure
levels.
By
contrast,
fragility
curves
express
the
probability
of
a
level
of
damage
being
reached
or
exceeded
given
a
range
of
intensity
measure
levels.
The
two
outcomes
are
linked
as
follows:
⎧ 1 − P (DS ≥ dsi IM ) i =0
0 < i ≤ n − 1
⎪
P (DS = dsi IM ) = ⎨P (DS ≥ dsi IM )− P (DS ≥ dsi +1 IM ) (2.1)
⎪
⎩ P (DS ≥ dsi IM ) i =n
where
P (DS ≥ dsi IM )
is
the
probability
of
a
level
of
damage,
dsi
,
being
reached
or
exceeded
given
seismic
intensity
measure
IM
(fragility
curves);
P (DS = dsi IM )
is
the
probability
of
the
buildings
being
within
dsi
for
IM
(DPM);
and
dsn
is
the
highest
state
of
damage.
The
relationship
between
these
two
expressions
of
fragility
is
also
illustrated
in
Figure
2.1b,
where
the
fragility
curves
corresponding
to
three
damage
states
(ds1-‐3)
are
depicted.
For
a
given
intensity
measure
level
im,
the
probability
of
being
in
one
damage
state
is
represented
by
the
distance
between
one
fragility
curve
and
the
one
below
it.
0.4 1.0
P(DS≥ds1 |IM)
0.3
P(DS ≥ dsi | IM)
P(DS = dsi | IM)
0.1
P(DS≥ds3 |IM)
0.0 0.0
ds0 ds1 ds2 ds3 DS| im im IM
a) b)
(a)
(b)
Figure
2.1.
Illustration
of
a)
a
column
of
a
DPM
for
intensity
im,
b)
fragility
curves
corresponding
to
n=3
damage
states
for
the
same
building
class.
A
variant
of
the
traditional
definition
of
fragility
relationship
above
can
also
be
found
in
the
literature
(e.g
Scawthorn
et
al,
1981;
Petrovski
and
Milutovic,
1990)
where
instead
of
the
exceedence
probability,
the
probability
of
a
building
class
sustaining
a
given
level
of
damage
as
a
continuous
function
of
ground
motion
5
intensity
is
used.
In
the
case
of
empirical
fragility
functions,
this
variation
has
a
subtle
disadvantage
over
the
traditional
definition,
i.e.
as
each
damage
state
curve
is
regressed
for
separately,
the
sum
of
the
probabilities
obtained
from
each
damage
state
curve
for
a
given
level
of
ground
intensity
does
not
always
equate
to
one.
DPMs
and
fragility
curves
have
been
used
in
some
studies
for
the
construction
of
vulnerability
functions
through
an
indirect
approach.
In
its
generic
form,
the
indirect
approach
constructs
the
intensity-‐to-‐loss
relationship
by
coupling
damage
probabilities
for
building
classes
at
specified
intensities
to
damage-‐to-‐loss
functions
(for
more
details
on
the
latter
functions
see
Rossetto
et
al,
2014)
using
the
total
probability
theorem:
n
P ( L > l IM ) = ∑ P ( L > l dsi ) P (DS = dsi IM )
(2.2)
i =0
where
P(L>l|IM)
is
the
complementary
cumulative
distribution
of
the
loss
given
intensity
IM;
P(L>l|dsi)
is
the
complementary
cumulative
distribution
of
loss
given
a
damage
state
dsi;
P(DS=dsi|IM)
is
the
damage
probability
matrix.
In
practice,
most
indirect
empirical
vulnerability
assessment
methods
(Benedetti
et
al,
1988;
Yang
et
al,
1989;
Spence
et
al,
2003;
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis,
2011)
ignore
the
uncertainty
in
the
damage-‐to-‐loss
functions
and
focus
on
the
estimation
of
the
average
loss
at
discrete
IMLs,
i.e.:
n
E ( L IM ) = ∑ E ( L dsi ) P (DS = dsi IM )
(2.3)
i =0
( ) ( )
where
E L dsi
is
the
mean
loss
L
suffered
by
a
class
of
structures
for
a
given
damage
state;
E L IM
is
the
mean
loss
for
intensity
IM.
To
date,
few
direct
vulnerability
functions
have
been
constructed
due
to
the
scarce
availability
of
good
quality
empirical
loss
data.
The
majority
of
these
existing
functions
correlate
a
measure
of
the
cost
of
the
direct
damage
to
an
intensity
measure
type.
A
small
minority
correlate
a
measure
of
casualty
with
intensity
and
only
Comerio
(2006)
are
found
to
correlate
downtime
with
ground
motion
intensity.
With
regard
to
the
form
of
these
functions,
discrete
functions
of
loss
are
proposed
by
Scholl
(1974)
and
Cochrane
and
Schaad
(1992)
in
terms
of
average
economic
loss
and
by
Comerio
(2006)
in
terms
of
downtime.
These
are
represented
in
similar
matrix
formats
to
DPMs
with
mean
losses
presented
for
each
intensity
level.
Continuous
functions
have
also
been
proposed
to
correlate
the
economic
loss
of
the
direct
damage
(Scawthorn
et
al.
1981;
Petrovski
et
al.
1984)
or
fatality
ratio
(i.e.
the
deaths
divided
by
the
total
exposed
population
of
an
area)
(Jaiswal
and
Wald
2010)
with
a
range
of
IM
parameters.
These
take
a
range
of
forms,
further
discussed
in
Section
2.4.3.
An
alternative
representation
of
vulnerability
or
fragility
is
applied
by
Yang
et
al
(1989),
Sabetta
et
al
(1998)
and
Wesson
et
al
(2004).
These
studies
fit
probability
distributions
to
the
loss
or
damage
data
for
each
isoseismic
unit,
i.e.
an
area
associated
with
a
specific
level
of
ground
motion
intensity
whose
spatial
distribution
across
the
municipality
is
considered
negligible.
Then,
they
use
a
continuous
relationship
to
correlate
the
parameters
of
the
latter
distribution
to
a
range
of
intensities.
This
approach,
however,
may
lead
to
wider
confidence
intervals
around
the
parameters
since
it
does
not
accounts
for
the
overall
number
of
data,
but
rather
concentrates
on
the
number
of
isoseismic
units
available.
6
The
level
of
quality
of
the
loss
or
damage
databases
strongly
affects
the
accuracy
of
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions.
Ideally,
empirical
functions
should
be
based
on
a
high
quality
database,
i.e.
one
that
includes
detailed
damage
and
loss
data
from
all
the
structural
units
(e.g.
buildings),
or
at
least
a
statistically
significant
representative
sample,
located
in
the
area
affected
by
a
strong
event.
However,
this
is
rarely
the
case.
Instead,
epistemic
uncertainty
is
introduced
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment
by
the
lower
quality
of
databases,
typically
adopted
in
the
reviewed
studies,
which
are
associated
with
errors
or
low
degree
of
refinement
in
the
definitions
of
damage
scales,
loss
measures,
building
classes
or
the
location
of
the
structural
units
as
outlined
in
Table
2.2.
The
errors
affecting
existing
databases
used
for
the
construction
of
vulnerability
or
fragility
curves
can
be
classified
as
sampling
or
non-‐sampling
errors
(UN,
1964):
• Sampling
errors
occur
because
a
subset
of
the
population
of
buildings,
located
in
the
affected
area,
has
been
selected
(surveyed)
instead
of
the
total
affected
population.
The
subset
is
selected
to
be
representative
of
the
target
population
of
buildings,
with
the
required
number
of
buildings
for
a
given
level
of
error
typically
being
calculated
from
standardised
procedures
based
on
the
adopted
sampling
technique
(see
Levy
and
Lemeshow,
2008).
• Non-‐sampling
errors
represent
the
remaining
sources
of
error
occurring
in
the
survey
design,
as
well
as
errors
in
the
collection
and
processing
of
the
data.
Three
main
sources
of
non-‐sampling
error
have
been
identified
in
the
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
literature
(United
Nations,
1982):
o Coverage
errors
are
unobservable
errors
that
occur
in
cases
where
the
database
of
damage
or
loss
observations
does
not
accurately
reflect
the
target
population
of
the
considered
asset,
e.g.
total
number
of
structural
units
in
the
affected
area.
o Response
errors
occur
when
incomplete
or
no
data
for
some
structural
units
are
collected
during
the
survey
due
to
rapid
assessment,
an
inexperienced
team,
poor
supervision
or
problems
with
questionnaire
(e.g.
lengthy
and/or
unclear).
o Measurement
errors
describe
the
deviance
of
the
observed
value
of
a
variable
from
its
‘true’,
but
unobserved
value.
In
what
follows,
a
critical
review
of
the
definitions
of
damage
scales,
loss
measures
and
building
classes
is
presented,
together
with
a
discussion
of
the
common
sources
of
error
found
in
seismic
loss/damage
databases
due
to
the
survey
design
and
data
collection
(non-‐sampling
errors).
Section
2.2.6
specifically
reviews
how
common
non-‐sampling
errors
are
dealt
with
in
the
literature.
As
sampling
errors
are
typically
reduced
by
aggregating
data
from
different
classes
or
combining
loss
or
damage
databases,
they
are
instead
further
discussed
in
Section
2.4.2
where
data
combination
is
reviewed.
Table
2.2.
Database
typologies
and
their
main
characteristics.
Type
Survey
Method
Typical
Typical
Building
Typical
No.
Reliability
Typical
issues
7
Sample
Classes
of
of
Sizes
Damage
observations
States
Rapid
Surveys
Large
All
buildings
2-‐3
Low
Safety
not
damage
evaluations.
Detailed
Large
to
Detailed
Classes
5-‐6
High
Possibility
of
“Engineering”
Small
unrepresentative
Surveys
samples.
Surveys
by
Very
Detailed
classes
5-‐6
High
Possibility
of
Damage
only.
Loss
Claims
data
Very
large
All
buildings
-‐
High
Often
focus
on
damaged
and/or
insured
buildings
only.
Government
Surveys
Very
large
All
buildings
1-‐2
Low
Unlikely
association
with
building
damage
Surveys
by
NGOs/
Varies
All
buildings
1-‐5
Low
and
causes
of
injuries.
Casualties
hospitals
Possibility
of
Detailed
Casualty
Very
Detailed
classes
3-‐5
High
unrepresentative
Surveys
Small
samples.
2.2.1 Damage
The
quality
of
a
damage
database
compiled
from
post-‐earthquake
observation
depends
on
the
adopted
measure
of
damage
and
the
errors
in
the
design
and
execution
of
the
survey.
In
existing
fragility
functions,
damage
is
characterised
via
descriptive
damage
states
associated
with
a
discrete
damage
scale.
The
choice
of
a
damage
scale
for
the
assessment
of
buildings
is
therefore
fundamental
to
the
definition
of
fragility
functions
and
resulting
indirect
vulnerability
functions.
As
discussed
in
Hill
and
Rossetto
(2008),
for
post-‐
earthquake
damage
observations
to
be
useful
in
the
development
of
empirical
fragility
functions
they
must
clearly
and
unambiguously
define
the
damage
states
in
terms
of
visually
observable
structural
and
non-‐
structural
damage
characteristics
for
different
structural
classes,
ideally
using
both
text
and
figures.
The
inclusion
of
non-‐structural
damage
in
the
damage
scale
is
particularly
important
for
loss
evaluation.
The
survey
should
also
be
carried
out
by
engineers
trained
in
the
identification
of
building
damage
using
the
damage
scale.
All
these
measures
reduce
potential
misclassification
errors.
8
In
reviewing
the
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
literature,
a
wide
variety
of
damage
scales
is
seen
to
have
been
used.
These
scales
vary
in
the
number
of
damage
states
and
the
level
of
detail
in
the
description
of
damage
for
each
state
according
to
the
purpose
of
the
survey.
With
very
few
exceptions
(e.g.
Liel
and
Lynch,
2009)
building
damage
statistics
are
not
collected
from
the
field
for
the
purpose
of
constructing
fragility
or
vulnerability
functions.
Rather,
they
have
become
available
from
surveys
carried
out
to
assess
structural
safety
or
evaluate
cost
of
repair
for
insurance,
tax
reductions,
or
government
aid
distribution
purposes
or
for
reconnaissance
purposes.
Hence,
care
must
be
taken
when
adopting
these
for
fragility
analysis.
Post-‐earthquake
surveys
commissioned
by
state
authorities
as
part
of
their
disaster
response
are
the
most
commonly
used
source
of
data
for
vulnerability
or
fragility
relationship
construction,
e.g.
Greek
authorities
(Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis,
2008;
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010),
Italian
authorities
(e.g.
Braga
et
al,
1982;
Benedetti
et
al,
1988;
Yang
et
al,
1989;
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2004;
Decanini
et
al,
2004),
Japanese
authorities
(e.g.
Yamazaki
and
Murao,
2000).
These
databases
tend
to
be
the
most
extensive
in
terms
of
the
size
of
the
affected
area
surveyed
and
number
of
buildings.
The
survey
area
is
seen
in
the
literature
to
vary
in
geographical
scale
according
to
the
earthquake
size
and
attenuation/amplification
characteristics
of
the
affected
area.
According
to
the
availability
of
the
survey
data,
the
reviewed
studies
select
a
target
area
for
the
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
curve
generation,
which
can
range
in
geographical
extent
from
the
entire
earthquake
affected
area
(e.g.
Braga
et
al,
1982;
Petrovski
et
al,
1984;
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2004;
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010),
a
city
within
the
affected
area
(e.g.
Scholl,
1974;
Benedetti,
1988;
Sengezer
and
Ansal,
2007;
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis,
2008),
or
smaller
political
units
such
as
a
ward
(e.g.
Yamazaki
and
Muraio,
2000).
The
smaller
the
chosen
target
area
the
smaller
the
sample
sizes
(number
of
buildings)
for
the
building
classes
that
can
be
used
for
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment.
This
target
area
is
typically
subdivided
into
smaller,
units,
which
are
considered
isoseismic.
As
stated
in
Section
2.3.1,
the
chosen
isoseismic
units
are
seen
to
vary
substantially
in
geographical
size
and
population
of
buildings,
even
within
the
same
study.
In
some
surveys,
all
units
within
the
target
area
have
been
surveyed
(e.g.
Benedetti
et
al,
1988;
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2004;
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis,
2008;
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010).
In
others,
only
a
fraction
of
these
units
has
been
surveyed
(Braga
et
al,
1982;
Petrovski
et
al,
1984;
Sengezer
and
Ansal,
2007).
Nonetheless,
with
the
exception
of
Scholl
(1974),
who
selected
two
sites
with
similar
number
of
buildings
but
different
soil
conditions,
the
reviewed
studies
did
not
provide
the
unit
selection
criteria.
This
raises
questions
on
whether
the
effects
of
the
examined
earthquake
are
appropriately
represented
in
the
survey.
For
example,
what
is
the
proportion
of
less
affected
versus
severely
affected
units?
Are
all
the
sites
close
to
the
epicentre
and
few
located
far
away?
Are
buildings
randomly
selected?
This
level
of
detail
regarding
the
survey
design
is
missing
from
most
empirical
studies.
It
is
not
uncommon
that
successive
surveys
with
increasingly
detailed
structural
evaluations,
and
potentially
different
damage
scales,
are
carried
out
in
earthquake-‐affected
areas,
as
shown
in
Figure
2.2.
Initially,
a
rapid
survey
is
conducted
in
order
to
assess
the
safety
of
the
building
inventory
affected
by
the
earthquake.
These
surveys
commonly
adopt
damage
scales
consisting
of
three
limit
states
(such
as
in
the
Greek
level
1
approach,
OASP
1997
(Dandoulaki
et
al,
1998)
or
ATC-‐20
1989
in
the
USA)
but
some
may
only
consist
of
two
broad
damage
states
(i.e.
damaged
and
undamaged,
or
safe
and
unsafe),
grouping
together
a
wide
range
of
seismic
damage
levels,
e.g.
buildings
that
suffered
collapse
or
severe
damage
are
grouped
together.
For
those
buildings
identified
as
being
damaged,
this
first
stage
of
evaluation
is
commonly
followed
a
second
more
detailed
assessment:
the
“detailed
damage
evaluation”
or
“engineering
evaluation”
(see
Figure
2.2).
The
damage
scales
used
for
the
latter
evaluations
commonly
comprise
between
three
and
eight
discrete
and
mutually
exclusive
states.
Damage
evaluation
forms
are
used
to
record
damage
to
the
structural
and
non-‐
9
structural
components
(see
for
example
the
Italian
AeDES
forms,
Baggio
et
al,
2000).
The
procedures
and
forms
adopted
for
damage
data
collection
vary
for
different
countries
and
have
changed
over
time,
(see
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2002
for
a
summary
of
the
evolution
of
damage
data
collection
procedures
and
tools
in
Italy).
The
aforementioned
surveys
commonly
suffer
from
a
number
of
significant
non-‐sampling
errors.
For
example,
rapid
damage
evaluations
commonly
adopt
damage
scales
with
two
or
three
damage
states.
No
distinction
is
often
made
between
different
structural
classes.
In
addition,
these
surveys
are
carried
out
through
an
external
inspection
of
the
structure
only,
potentially
introducing
a
significant
misclassification
error
in
the
assignment
of
the
damage.
For
all
these
reasons,
the
resulting
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
are
of
limited
usefulness
and
reliability.
Whilst
rapid
surveys
can
cover
the
entire
affected
region,
detailed
damage
evaluations
are
typically
carried
out
over
a
subset
of
the
affected
regions
(usually
the
worst
affected
regions)
and
cover
a
sample
of
total
number
of
buildings
(e.g.
buildings
that
are
heavily
damaged,
or
buildings
for
which
a
specific
request
for
detailed
damage
evaluation
has
been
made
by
the
owner).
For
example
in
the
2002
Molise
earthquake
in
Italy,
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale
(2004)
report
that
for
areas
away
from
the
epicentre,
where
damage
was
less,
engineering
surveys
were
only
carried
out
on
the
building
owner’s
request.
This
may
result
in
significant
coverage
error
in
the
database
due
to
the
practical
exclusion
of
the
majority
of
the
undamaged
buildings
from
the
sample.
This
error,
if
untreated,
could
lead
to
a
bias
in
the
damage
statistics
(see
Section
2.2.6).
Figure
2.2.
ATC-‐20
(1989)
flowchart
for
normal
building
safety
evaluation
and
posting.
10
Partial
non-‐response
errors
can
also
be
introduced
when
information
regarding
the
building
typology,
level
of
damage,
building’s
location
or
repair
cost
is
omitted
from
the
survey
forms.
This
is
seen
to
be
a
significant
problem
in
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis
(2008),
who,
due
to
incomplete
reporting,
only
used
data
from
73,468,
out
of
180,945
surveyed
reinforced
concrete
buildings
in
the
117
municipalities
of
Athens
affected
by
the
1999
earthquake
to
build
their
DPMs.
It
is
unclear
what
influence
this
has
on
the
final
result
bias,
especially
as
it
is
unclear
whether
the
spatial
distribution
of
these
buildings
is
taken
into
account.
The
proportion
of
unreliable
data
due
to
incomplete
survey
forms
or
claims
were
also
found
to
be
substantial
(ranging
from
27%
to
66%)
in
other
damage
databases
(i.e.
Colombi
et
al,
2008)
but
insignificant
in
others
(i.e.
Rota
et
al,
2008
and
Wesson
et
al,
2004).
Measurement
errors
are
also
commonly
found
in
survey
forms/claims.
These
errors
occur
when
inexperienced
engineers
carry
out
the
surveys,
when
the
survey
form
is
not
sufficiently
detailed
or
appropriate
training
has
not
been
provided
to
reduce
the
surveyors’
bias.
Measurement
errors
in
a
database
also
occur
from
inclusion
of
the
combined
losses
or
damage
caused
by
successive
large
aftershocks
or
other
main
events
(e.g.
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2004;
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010)
and/or
secondary
hazards
(e.g
liquefaction
in
Scawthorn
et
al,
1981)
with
those
caused
by
ground
shaking
in
the
main
event.
Such
errors
limit
the
application
of
functions
based
on
these
databases
to
other
locations.
The
importance
of
these
errors
is
not
clear
given
that
existing
studies
did
not
(and
in
some
cases
could
not)
independently
check
their
damage
data.
An
alternative
source
of
building
damage
statistics
are
databases
compiled
by
institutions
or
specialist
reconnaissance
teams,
such
as
those
of
the
UK
Earthquake
Engineering
Field
Investigation
Team
(EEFIT)
and
the
US
Earthquake
Engineering
Research
Institute
(EERI).
Such
databases
are
smaller
in
geographical
scale
than
those
carried
out
by
government
authorities.
They
mostly
consist
of
damage
surveys
carried
out
through
external
building
inspection
and
over
small
areas
(at
road
or
block
level).
Such
surveys
commonly
use
damage
scales
linked
to
macroseismic
intensity
scales
(such
as
those
in
EMS-‐98,
(Grunthal,1998)),
as
part
of
the
remit
of
the
teams
may
be
to
evaluate
the
macroseismic
intensity
distribution
caused
by
the
event.
Most
such
databases
are
associated
with
low
measurement
errors
as
they
are
carried
out
by
experts
but
high
sampling
errors
due
to
the
small
sample
sizes
(of
the
order
of
10-‐50)
of
surveyed
buildings.
Data
collected
by
reconnaissance
teams
have
been
used
in
combination
with
other
larger
databases
for
the
construction
of
fragility
functions
(e.g.
Coburn
and
Spence,
2002;
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003;
Liel
and
Lynch,
2009).
For
example,
Liel
and
Lynch
(2009)
examined
the
vulnerability
of
Italian
RC
buildings
by
inspecting
a
sample
of
483
out
of
the
total
population
of
14,088
RC
buildings
located
in
the
municipality
of
L’Aquila
in
the
aftermath
of
the
2009
event.
Despite
the
high
reliability
of
the
observations
(i.e.
low
damage
misclassification
error),
the
samples
can
often
biased
with
under-‐coverage
error
due
to
the
traditional
focus
of
the
reconnaissance
teams
on
the
severely
damaged
buildings/areas.
However,
recently
reconnaissance
teams
have
been
targeting
locations
close
to
ground
motion
recording
stations
(e.g.
Sarabandi
et
al,
2004
and
Rossetto
et
al,
2010).
These
data
could,
in
theory
at
least,
improve
the
reliability
of
the
fragility
functions
by
minimising
the
uncertainty
in
the
value
of
ground
motion
intensity.
Such
a
sampling
technique
was
used
by
King
et
al
(2005)
who
adopted
a
database
of
500
inspected
buildings
affected
by
the
1994
Northridge
earthquake,
which
were
located
within
1000
feet
from
30
ground
motion
stations.
Following
recent
events,
large
databases
of
building
damage
data
have
been
obtained
using
remote
sensing.
These
damage
assessments
have
been
made
by
visual
interpretation
or
change
analysis
of
satellite
images
taken
after,
or
before
and
after,
an
earthquake
event,
respectively.
Such
sources
are
becoming
more
viable
as
the
number
of
satellites
and
availability
and
resolution
of
satellite
images
increases,
and
the
cost
of
these
images
decreases.
The
satellite
images
can
be
used
alone
or
adopted
together
with
aerial
reconnaissance
11
images.
Of
note
is
the
recent
establishment
of
the
Virtual
Disaster
Viewer
(Bevington
et
al.
2010),
supported
by
several
international
institutions
which
provides
images
and
a
forum
for
experts
to
interpret
damage
from
satellite
images.
The
subsequent
GEO-‐CAN
initiative
(Ghosh
et
al.
2006)
also
brought
together
experts
from
all
over
the
world
to
interpret
damage
in
the
2010
Haiti
and
2011
Christchurch,
New
Zealand
earthquakes.
Three
major
issues
have
been
identified
with
the
use
of
remotely
sensed
damage
data
(Booth
et
al.
2011,
Saito
and
Spence
2004
and
Clasen
et
al
(2010)
:
• Difficulty
in
recognising
soft-‐storey
type
collapses
from
vertical
satellite
images
of
rooftops,
• Inability
to
reliably
identify
damage
states
lighter
than
collapse,
• Difficulties
with
automating
the
change
analysis
procedure
for
damage
detection.
Some
of
these
difficulties
may
be
overcome
with
time
as
more
“angled”
satellite
or
aerial
images
become
available
and
as
technologies
develop.
To
date,
remotely
sensed
damage
data
has
only
recently
been
used
for
the
construction
of
empirical
fragility
functions
for
earthquakes
(Hancilar
et
al.
2011)
and
tsunami
(e.g.
Koshimura
et
al
2009).
In
order
to
reduce
epistemic
uncertainty,
empirical
fragility
assessment
studies
should
adopt
the
same
damage
scale
as
used
by
the
damage
surveys.
However,
in
the
literature
it
is
seen
that
damage
statistics
are
sometimes
interpreted
in
terms
of
a
different
damage
scale
(e.g.
the
8
damage
states
of
the
Irpinia
1980
damage
statistics
converted
to
the
6
damage
states
of
the
MSK
scale
in
Braga
et
al,
1982).
This
may
be
in
order
to
use
a
damage
scale
more
closely
related
to
the
IM
used,
if
the
latter
is
expressed
in
terms
of
a
macroseismic
intensity.
The
mapping
of
damage
states
between
different
damage
scales
is
instead
necessary
when
damage
data
from
surveys
for
the
same
earthquake
(e.g.
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010,
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki,
2001),
or
different
earthquake
events
from
the
same
country
(e.g.
Colombi
et
al,
2008;
Rota
et
al,
2008,
Sabetta
et
al,
1998)
or
different
countries
(e.g.
Spence
et
al
1992,
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003)
are
to
be
combined.
This
is
discussed
further
in
Section
2.4.2.
12
contrast,
Dowrick
and
Rhoades
(1990)
use
the
property
value
instead
of
the
replacement
cost,
and
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
consider
the
replacement
cost
to
be
equal
to
the
fire-‐insured
value
of
the
examined
buildings.
Detailed
post-‐earthquake
economic
loss
databases
have
been
compiled
from
claims
submitted
by
building
owners
to
the
authorities
(Dowrick
and
Rhoades,
1990)
and/or
the
private
insurance
industry
(Dowrick
and
Rhoades,
1990;
Cochrane
and
Shah,
1992;
Wesson
et
al,
2004).
An
acknowledged
bias
in
the
latter
databases
is
the
under-‐coverage
error
occurring
due
to
the
lack
of
data
regarding
losses
below
the
deductible,
i.e.
a
threshold
of
economic
loss
below
which
the
policyholder,
rather
than
the
insurance
company,
is
expected
to
pay
for
the
repair
cost.
Another
source
of
under-‐coverage
error
can
be
introduced
by
the
potentially
large
proportion
of
uninsured
buildings
present
in
the
building
inventory,
which
may
lead
to
the
sample
(insured
buildings)
misrepresenting
the
distribution
of
damage
in
the
exposed
inventory.
Some
studies
have
ignored
this
issue
(Cochrane
and
Shah;
1992;
Wesson
et
al,
2004).
Others
(Dowrick,
1991;
Dowrick
and
Rhoades,
1990)
have
instead
shown
that
for
their
data,
the
number
of
uninsured
data
although
notable
(15%)
did
not
lead
to
substantial
errors.
Questionnaires
have
also
been
used
in
the
past
to
collect
loss
data
after
earthquake
events.
Whitman
et
al
(1973)
identified
an
area
affected
by
the
1973
San
Fernando
earthquake
where
approximately
1,600
mid-‐
and
high-‐rise
buildings
were
located.
They
collected
loss
data
from
a
sample
of
370
buildings
by
sending
questionnaires
to
the
building
owners.
In
general,
the
latter
databases
can
be
considered
unbiased
and
of
high
quality,
with
their
level
of
epistemic
uncertainty
depending
on
the
sample
size.
Post-‐earthquake
cost
data,
(like
building
damage
state
data),
can
also
be
obtained
from
detailed
or
engineering
surveys
(see
Section
2.2.1),
where
engineers
are
asked
to
provide
estimates
of
repair
or
replacement
costs
from
the
observed
degree
of
building
damage.
However,
such
data
is
rare,
may
be
inconsistent,
and
is
dependent
on
the
experience
and
training
given
to
the
engineers
carrying
out
the
assessment.
Such
cost
data
can
be
used
directly
for
generating
vulnerability
functions
but,
in
recognition
of
its
high
variability,
should
only
really
be
used
to
define
average
Damage
Factors
(or
DF
distributions)
for
specified
building
classes,
which
can
then
be
adopted
in
indirect
vulnerability
curve
generation.
More
information
on
DFs
can
be
found
in
Rossetto
et
al
(2015).
2.2.3 Downtime
Downtime
is
defined
as
the
time
(i.e.
in
years
or
months)
necessary
to
plan,
finance
and
complete
the
repairs
of
damaged
buildings
(Comerio,
2006).
Interestingly,
the
time
for
the
replacement
of
severely
damaged
or
collapsed
buildings
is
not
included
in
this
definition.
Although
downtime
is
a
measure
of
loss
necessary
for
the
estimation
of
business
disruption
and
the
overall
impact
of
an
earthquake
on
society,
it
is
largely
ignored
in
the
empirical
vulnerability
literature.
This
may
be
due
to
the
lack
of
systematically
collected
observations
on
downtime
caused
by
the
significant
span
of
time
required
to
complete
repairs
(which
can
extend
to
several
years).
It
may
also
be
due
to
the
extremely
large
expected
variation
in
downtime
estimates
for
buildings
with
different
usage
in
different
locations.
Such
variations
are
often
influenced
by
socio-‐economic
and
governance
factors
(e.g.
availability
of
funds
for
repair/rebuilding)
as
well
as
the
size
of
the
earthquake
affected
area.
Furthermore,
building-‐owners
and/or
state-‐authorities
often
play
an
important
role
in
prioritising
and
determining
works,
which
influence
the
time
of
repair.
2.2.4 Casualties
In
direct
vulnerability
functions,
casualties
are
usually
characterised
by
fatality
counts
(the
number
of
people
who
have
died
in
an
event)
or
by
fatality
rates
(the
number
of
deaths
as
a
proportion
of
the
exposed
population
considered).
Fatality
rate
is
a
more
useful
parameter
than
fatality
counts
for
use
in
comparing
13
vulnerabilities
in
different
locations.
Indirect
methods
for
casualty
estimation
usually
involve
combining
building
damage
or
collapse
estimates
from
fragility
analyses
with
lethality
rates
defined
for
the
considered
building
class.
Lethality
ratio
is
defined
by
Coburn
and
Spence
(2002)
as
the
ratio
of
number
of
people
killed
to
the
number
of
occupants
present
in
the
collapsed
buildings
of
a
particular
class.
The
lethality
ratio
can
be
affected
by
a
number
of
factors
including:
building
type
and
function,
failure
mechanism,
occupant
behaviour,
time
of
the
event,
ground
motion
characteristics,
and
search
and
rescue
effectiveness
(Coburn
and
Spence,
2002).
The
empirical
evaluation
of
fatality
counts,
fatality
and
lethality
rates
depend
on
the
availability
of
reliable
casualty
data
from
past
earthquake
events.
However,
earthquake
casualty
data
are
reported
to
be
scarce
and
associated
with
significant
quality
issues
(Lagorio,
1990;
Petal,
2011).
A
number
of
sources
of
casualty
data
have
been
used
for
the
development
of
vulnerability
functions.
These
include
official
statistics
published
by
government
agencies,
hospital
admissions
data,
coroner
and
medical
records,
and
specific
surveys
carried
out
by
casualty
researchers
(e.g.
De
Bruycker
et
al
1985;
Petal
2009).
Methods
used
for
the
data
collection
vary
and
are
commonly
only
specified
in
the
case
of
researcher-‐led
surveys.
Hence,
fatality
counts,
fatality
ratios,
and
lethality
are
plagued
by
inconsistencies
in
definitions
and
data
collection
methods.
Also,
Li
et
al
(2011)
show
that
the
reported
fatality
count
changes
as
a
function
of
time
following
the
earthquake
event,
however,
there
is
no
apparent
guidance
or
consensus
in
the
literature
as
to
how
long
after
the
event
deaths
should
stop
being
attributed
to
the
earthquake.
Furthermore,
in
highly
fatal
earthquakes,
the
number
of
deaths
is
seen
to
be
highly
unreliable
and
to
vary
widely,
with
official
figures
sometimes
being
incorrect,
e.g.
aggregating
different
causes
of
death,
(e.g.
cardiac
arrest,
deaths
from
secondary
hazards
or
from
epidemics
following
earthquakes),
to
deaths
directly
from
structural
and
non-‐structural
earthquake
damage.
Petal
(2011)
also
states
that
in
some
cases
official
death
counts
can
be
deliberately
exaggerated
or
understated
for
political
reasons.
In
some
casualty
studies,
official
statistics
are
replaced
or
supplemented
with
data
from
hospital
admissions
(e.g.
Pomonis
et
al,
1992)
or
specific
field
studies
conducted
after
earthquakes
in
order
to
determine
the
number
of
deaths
and
their
causes,
(associating
them,
for
example,
demographic
characteristics
or
with
mechanisms
of
structural
damage).
Such
studies
provide
data
of
higher
quality,
but
the
geographical
scale
of
areas
covered
is
a
small
subset
of
the
entire
affected
area,
resulting
in
an
insufficient
range
of
ground
motion
intensities
for
the
determination
of
direct
vulnerability
functions.
Hence,
the
casualty
data
are
used
mainly
to
calibrate
damage-‐to-‐casualty
functions
used
in
indirect
vulnerability
estimation.
Different
approaches
are
followed
to
collect
casualty
data
in
field
surveys.
For
example,
De
Bruyker
et
al.
(1985),
collect
casualty
data
from
a
random
sample
of
one-‐third
of
villagers
in
a
selected
area
affected
by
the
1980
Southern
Italy
earthquake,
and
Petal
(2009)
carry
out
geo-‐stratified
random
sampling
of
families
affected
by
the
1999
Kocaeli
(Turkey)
earthquake.
Although
small
in
sample
size,
such
data
can
be
considered
unbiased
and
complete
for
the
target
area
if
significant
migration
of
people
out
of
the
affected
area
has
not
taken
place.
However,
in
many
other
instances,
(e.g.
So,
2011),
convenience
sampling
is
carried
out,
whereby
only
easily
accessible
groups
or
locations
are
sampled.
This
may
result
in
biases
if
the
sample
is
not
representative
of
the
demographics
of
the
affected
population,
or
if
the
full
range
building
types
and
failure
mechanisms
within
a
selected
building
class
are
not
represented.
Such
biases
result
in
estimates
of
fatality
rates
and
lethality
rates,
respectively,
that
cannot
be
projected
to
the
affected
population.
14
studies
building
classes
with
similar
earthquake
response
characteristics
need
to
be
defined
in
order
to
obtain
the
basic
damage
statistics
required
to
construct
the
vulnerability
functions.
In
theory,
the
more
detailed
the
building
class
the
more
homogenous
the
group
of
buildings
and
the
smaller
the
variation
in
seismic
response.
However,
in
practice
a
narrowly
defined
building
class
often
results
in
small
sample
sizes.
A
careful
balance
is
therefore
struck
between
level
of
detail
in
the
building
class
definition
and
sample
size.
The
structural
(and
non-‐structural)
characteristics
mostly
affecting
seismic
response
depend
on
which
loss
parameter
is
being
assessed.
For
example,
the
structure’s
deformation
affects
the
state
of
damage
and
consequently
cost,
downtime,
and
human
casualties.
The
structural
characteristics
influencing
this
deformation
are
well
documented
(e.g.
FEMA
547,
2007
and
include
(but
are
not
limited
to):
• Lateral
load
resisting
system
(e.g.
MRF,
Shear
wall
etc)
• Construction
materials
• Layout
in
plan
and
elevation
• Presence
of
irregularities
• Seismic
design
code
used
(i.e.
capacity
design,
level
of
structural
detailing)
• Height
of
structure
• Weight
of
structure
• Redundancy
of
structure
• Type
and
amount
of
strengthening
intervention
A
building
classification
system
that
accounts
for
all
these
influencing
factors
allows
a
high-‐degree
of
differentiation
in
fragility
studies.
However,
in
the
case
of
cost,
downtime
and
casualty
evaluation,
the
presence
of
non-‐structural
elements
and
occupancy/use
of
the
structure
also
have
a
strong
influence
on
the
accuracy
of
the
vulnerability
evaluation,
and
hence
should
also
be
considered
as
part
of
the
building
classification
system.
Furthermore,
in
the
case
of
human
casualty
the
lethality
of
the
building
materials,
floor
and
roof
system
should
be
considered
in
addition
to
their
contribution
to
the
structure
dynamic
response.
However,
the
latter
is
not
commonly
done,
a
primary
relationship
often
being
assumed
between
material
or
roof
type
and
the
vertical
elements
of
the
structure
(Shiono
et
al,
1991).
In
the
case
of
empirical
vulnerability
functions,
the
building
class
definition
used
can
be
dictated
by
the
level
of
detail
present
in
the
loss
or
damage
data.
In
particular,
rapid
post-‐earthquake
survey
data
often
do
not
distinguish
between
damage/losses
observed
in
structures
of
different
types,
and
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
developed
from
these
data
are
highly
specific
to
a
particular
built
environment
(e.g.
Tavakoli
and
Tavakoli,
1993).
Different
degrees
of
refinement
are
seen
in
the
building
classification
systems
adopted
by
existing
studies
according
to
their
data.
For
example,
Gulkan
et
al
(1992)
classify
buildings
by
construction
material
only,
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
by
construction
material
and
height,
Karababa
and
Pomonis
(2010)
by
construction
material,
lateral
load
resisting
system
and
age
(representative
of
seismic
code
level),
and
Spence
et
al
(2003)
classify
reinforced
concrete
buildings
in
terms
of
their
design
code,
height
and
quality
of
construction.
Dolce
et
al
(2006)
is
the
only
study
seen
to
account
explicitly
for
the
presence
of
seismic
strengthening
measures,
and
none
of
the
reviewed
empirical
functions
takes
explicit
account
of
structures
with
irregularities
that
may
precipitate
their
damage/failure
under
earthquake
loading.
Despite
the
existence
of
various
building
classification
systems
(e.g.
adopted
by
HAZUS99
(FEMA,
1999)
or
PAGER
(Porter
et
al,
2008),
these
are
not
commonly
adhered
to
by
existing
studies;
rather,
bespoke
building
classes
are
defined.
For
example,
there
is
no
agreement
as
to
how
many
storeys
are
included
in
different
height
categories.
Low-‐rise
structures
are
fairly
uniformly
defined
as
being
between
1-‐3
storeys,
but
15
definitions
of
mid-‐rise
and
high-‐rise
categories
differ
significantly.
For
example,
Scawthorn
et
al
(1981)
define
mid-‐rise
as
containing
buildings
with
between
3
and
12
storeys,
whereas
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
adopt
5-‐8
storeys.
Seismic
code
classes
depend
on
the
location
being
assessed,
and
on
the
year
of
the
study.
Care
must
be
taken
when
adopting
studies
carried
out
long
ago,
as
the
rapid
evolution
of
seismic
codes
in
recent
years
may
mean
that
the
classes
of
structure
they
regard
as
“modern”
may
be
considered
“low-‐code”
by
current
standards.
Instead
of
using
strictly
typological
building
classes,
some
existing
studies
have
adopted
the
approach
of
assigning
structures
to
vulnerability
classes.
These
vulnerability
classes
are
either
described
through
bespoke
vulnerability
indices
that
are
evaluated
from
the
characteristics
of
the
structure
(e.g.
in
Benedetti
et
al.
1988)
or
are
taken
from
earthquake
macroseismic
intensity
scales.
An
example
of
the
latter
is
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale
(2004),
who
assign
the
MSK
vulnerability
classes
to
the
masonry
buildings
in
their
datasets
through
consideration
of
their
layout,
the
flexibility
of
their
floors
as
well
as
the
presence
of
tie
beams.
16
Response
errors
may
also
occur
in
a
single
earthquake
damage/loss
database
due
to
a
large
number
of
incomplete
survey
forms.
To
date,
existing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
studies
consider
that
this
error
is
random,
and
as
such
can
be
addressed
by
simply
ignoring
the
incomplete
forms
and
constructing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
using
only
the
complete
forms.
This
assumption,
however,
is
not
appropriately
validated,
and
considering
the
survey
process,
it
is
likely
not
to
be
random.
It
is
possible
that
the
same
set
of
surveyors
consistently
does
not
complete
forms
and
that
there
may
be
a
geographical
bias,
if
these
surveyors
are
assigned
to
particular
sites.
If
the
error
is
not
random,
ignoring
incomplete
forms
would
introduce
bias
in
the
results
especially
in
cases
where
the
proportion
of
the
eliminated
data
is
significant;
e.g.
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
eliminated
50%
of
the
available
data.
Measurement
errors
are
also
found
to
contaminate
existing
databases
mainly
due
to
the
inclusion
of
loss
or
damage
data
associated
with
secondary
hazards.
In
existing
studies,
such
errors
are
seen
to
be
removed
from
the
databases
where
the
survey
data
are
available
in
sufficient
detail
(e.g.
Yamazaki
and
Murao,
2000,
removed
buildings
damaged
due
to
liquefaction
from
their
database),
or
where
the
areas
affected
by
the
secondary
hazard
were
geographically
constrained
(with
damage
data
from
these
areas
excluded).
However,
this
is
not
always
possible
(e.g.
Scawthorn
et
al,
1981).
By
contrast,
measurement
errors
occurring
due
to
the
inclusion
of
loss
or
damage
data
from
successive
strong
aftershocks
or
other
large
earthquakes
(e.g.
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale,
2004;
Karababa
and
Pominis,
2011)
cannot
be
removed
from
the
database.
In
the
latter
cases,
this
bias
is
acknowledged
by
the
studies,
and
should
be
considered
in
interpreting
the
results
from
these
vulnerability
or
fragility
studies,
which
may
over-‐predict
the
damage/loss,
(especially
if
applied
to
estimate
risk
from
small
magnitude
events).
The
construction
of
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
requires
reliable
loss
and/or
damage
statistics
from
the
typically
large
area/s
affected
by
strong
ground
shaking.
In
practice,
the
affected
area
is
subdivided
into
smaller
units
over
which
the
seismic
demand
is
considered
uniform
(isoseismic
units).
Ideally,
these
isoseismic
units
should
be
areas
of
uniform
soil
conditions,
in
close
proximity
to
ground
motion
recording
stations.
These
are
necessary
conditions
for
an
accurate
and
uniform
seismic
demand
to
be
assumed
across
the
building
population,
which
minimises
the
uncertainty
in
the
ground
motion
and
results
in
damage/loss
statistics
that
reflect
only
the
uncertainty
in
buildings
resistance
(Rossetto
and
Elnashai
2005).
In
practice,
the
size
of
the
isoseismic
unit
can
be
dictated
by
the
minimum
building
sample
size,
survey
method
used
or
way
in
which
the
damage
data
is
reported.
Scarcity
of
ground
motion
recording
instruments
means
that
ground-‐motion
prediction
equations
are
used
to
assign
IMLs
to
the
isoseismic
units.
Moreover,
a
range
of
different
intensity
measures
has
been
used
in
the
derivation
of
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions.
In
this
section,
existing
fragility
and
vulnerability
studies
are
critically
reviewed
with
respect
to
these
three
aspects
of
ground
motion
intensity
estimation
and
implications
on
epistemic
uncertainty
are
discussed.
17
is
seen
to
evaluate
the
uncertainty
associated
with
the
representation
of
the
ground
motion
intensity
across
an
area
by
a
single
(average)
parameter
value.
18
Regardless
of
the
scale
continuity,
the
use
of
macroseismic
intensity,
including
PSI,
to
characterise
ground
motion
in
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
can
introduce
inter-‐dependence
between
the
predicted
vulnerability
or
fragility
and
the
IM.
This
is
because
macroseismic
intensity
is
evaluated
directly
from
observed
earthquake
effects
and,
hence,
its
value
is
partly
dictated
by
the
building
stock
fragility.
In
the
case
of
single
earthquake
events
use
of
macroseismic
intensity
as
the
IM
results
in
a
reduced
data
scatter,
as
damageability
of
an
earthquake
is
better
correlated
with
its
observed
damage
than
with
direct
measures
of
ground
shaking.
Intuitively,
one
could
assume
that
this
would
be
offset
by
higher
uncertainty
on
the
prediction
of
the
IM,
since
it
shifts
the
main
predictive
responsibility
to
GMPEs
that
estimate
macroseismic
intensity
(i.e.
Intensity
Prediction
Equations,
which
include
both
damage
observations
and
felt
effects)
from
seismological
features
such
as
magnitude,
hypocentral
location,
and
style
of
faulting.
On
the
other
hand,
limited
evidence
on
this
topic
(e.g.
Allen
et
al,
2011)
suggests
that
there
is
actually
a
lower
uncertainty
on
predictions
of
macroseismic
intensity
than
peak
motions.
This
results
from
the
fact
that
macroseismic
intensity
estimates
involve
a
spatial
average
over
a
study
area,
while
peak
motions
are
point
measurements.
The
authors
are
not
aware
of
any
studies
that
have
compared
uncertainty
on
loss
estimates,
propagated
through
from
the
estimation
of
the
IM
and
vulnerability,
but
such
a
study
would
be
valuable
for
the
assessment
of
the
relative
merits
of
each
approach.
A
few
studies
propose
continuous
functions
correlating
the
economic
loss
(Thráinsson
and
Sigbjörnsson
1994)
or
death
rate
(Samardjieva
and
Badal,
2002;
Nichols
and
Beavers,
2003)
to
earthquake
magnitude
and
epicentral
distance,
due
to
a
limited
amount
of
available
data.
However,
earthquake
magnitude
is
seen
to
be
a
very
poor
predictor
of
fatalities
by
Ferreira
et
al
(2011).
This
is
because
earthquake
magnitude
is
not
representative
of
the
strong
ground
shaking
caused
by
the
earthquake,
and
hence
the
applicability
of
functions
using
this
parameter
as
their
IM
is
severely
limited.
A
different
approach
for
the
selection
of
ground
motion
intensity
measures
has
been
promoted
by
the
current
seismic
risk
assessment
framework,
where
it
is
important
to
decouple
the
uncertainties
associated
with
the
seismic
demand
from
their
counterparts
introduced
by
the
structural
fragility.
This
can
be
achieved
by
selecting
a
measure
of
seismic
demand
capable
of
representing
the
influence
of
source,
path,
and
site
on
the
strong
ground
motion.
This
measure
should
characterize
the
ground
shaking
at
each
isoseismic
unit
and
ideally
its
level
should
be
determined
from
earthquake
ground
motion
records.
However,
due
to
the
scarcity
of
strong
ground
motion
recording
stations,
in
practice
ground
motion
parameter
values
are
obtained
from
ground
motion
prediction
equations,
whose
availability
determines
the
applicability
of
the
measure
of
intensity.
For
the
latter
reason,
and
due
to
its
traditional
use
in
the
definition
of
design
loads
for
structures
and
seismic
hazard
maps,
peak
ground
acceleration
(PGA)
is
the
main
parameter
used
to
represent
ground
motion
intensity
in
empirical
fragility
studies
(e.g.
Sabetta
et
al,
1998;
Rota
et
al,
2008).
However,
it
is
well
known
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003)
that
PGA
does
not
correlate
well
with
observed
damage
(especially
for
ductile
structures
or
large
damage
states).
In
engineering
terms,
PGA
is
related
to
the
dynamic
loads
imposed
on
very
stiff
structures
and,
therefore,
may
not
be
adequate
for
the
characterisation
of
seismic
demand
in
medium
or
high
rise
building
populations.
Peak
ground
velocity
(PGV)
is
more
representative
of
the
seismic
demand
on
structures
of
intermediate
natural
period
of
vibration
than
PGA.
PGV
is
generally
calculated
through
direct
integration
of
accelerograms
and
may
be
sensitive
to
both
the
record
noise
content
and
filtering
process.
Fewer
ground
motion
prediction
equations
for
PGV
exist
than
for
PGA,
but
PGV
seems
to
be
the
preferred
IM
in
empirical
fragility
studies
from
Japan
(e.g.
Yamazaki
and
Murao
2000).
Few
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
studies
(e.g.
King
et
al,
2005)
currently
exist
that
adopt
peak
ground
displacement
(PGD)
as
their
IM.
Few
attenuation
functions
exist
for
the
prediction
of
PGD,
due
to
its
high
sensitivity
to
noise
in
accelerograms
and
to
filtering
techniques
adopted
in
the
elimination
of
unwanted
19
frequencies
from
raw
records.
The
PGD
attenuation
functions
that
do
exist,
(e.g.
Sadigh
and
Egan
1998),
are
based
on
few
digital
records
and
cover
limited
areas
and
fault
mechanisms.
Rossetto
(2004)
observes
a
better
correlation
of
PGD
than
PGA
with
her
database
of
reinforced
concrete
building
damage
statistics,
however
notes
that
in
both
cases
the
overall
correlation
is
poor.
Sarabandi
et
al
(2004)
also
notes
poor
general
correlation
of
all
the
ground
motion
indices
they
studied
with
a
limited
set
of
damage
data
for
reinforced
concrete
structures
(60
buildings
maximum
sized
database),
but
also
notes
slightly
better
correlation
of
PGD
than
PGV
and
PGA
with
their
data.
Parameters
such
as
PGA,
PGV,
and
PGD
are
unable
to
capture
features
of
the
earthquake
record,
such
as
frequency
content,
duration,
or
number
of
cycles,
which
affect
the
response
of
a
structure
and
its
consequent
damage
and
loss.
Hence,
in
an
attempt
to
better
capture
the
influence
of
accelerogram
frequency
content,
more
recent
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
studies
have
favoured
the
use
of
response
spectrum
based
parameters
as
measures
of
ground
motion
intensity.
Acceleration
spectra
are
representative
of
the
imposed
seismic
forces
on
the
structure
over
a
wide
range
of
frequencies,
and
are
used
by
most
modern
design
codes
in
the
determination
of
structure
loads.
In
view
of
this,
ground
motion
prediction
equations
for
elastic
spectral
acceleration
at
5%
damping
(Sa5%(T))
have
been
proposed
by
various
authors
(e.g.
Ambraseys
et
al
1996)
and
Sa5%(T)
is
commonly
used
in
seismic
hazard
maps.
Sa5%(T)
has
been
adopted
in
several
recent
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
studies
(e.g.
Wesson
et
al
2004;
Colombi
et
al,
2008).
Spence
et
al
(1992),
Singhal
and
Kiremidjian
(1997)
and
Rossetto
(2004)
noted
that
Sa5%(T)
provided
a
better
correlation
with
their
empirical
damage
data
than
PGA.
However,
damage
is
more
closely
related
to
the
seismic
energy
imparted
to
the
structure
and
imposed
relative
displacements
than
to
imposed
forces.
Spectral
velocity,
Sv(T),
is
indicative
of
the
peak
(not
total)
earthquake
energy,
and
although
ground
motion
prediction
equations
exist
for
the
parameter
evaluation,
Sv(T)
is
rarely
used
in
the
development
of
empirical
vulnerability
curves
(e.g.
King
et
al,
2005;
Scholl
1974).
A
few
empirical
fragility
studies
have
adopted
spectral
displacement
(Sd(T))
as
their
IM
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003;
Sarabandi
et
al,
2004;
Colombi
et
al,
2008).
Sd(T)
has
gained
importance
in
seismic
risk
assessment
due
to
the
development
of
displacement-‐based
methods
of
seismic
design
and
assessment
(e.g.
Priestley
et
al,
2007).
Furthermore,
the
installation
of
digital
strong-‐motion
measuring
instruments
in
countries
worldwide
has
eliminated
the
uncertainty
in
the
spectral
displacement
determination
from
accelerograms,
associated
with
noise
contamination
and
record
frequency
filtering
procedures.
Consequently,
ground
motion
prediction
functions
for
Sd(T)
have
been
derived
(e.g.
Akkar
and
Bommer
2007).
Rossetto
(2004)
judges
Sd(T)
to
correlate
better
with
the
observational
damage
statistics
in
her
database,
compared
to
Sa(T)
and
PGA,
and
this
is
also
observed
for
limited
data
by
Sarabandi
et
al
(2004).
One
of
the
main
difficulties
associated
with
the
use
of
elastic
spectral
values
are
the
determination
of
equivalent
vibration
periods
and
damping
coefficients
for
the
characterisation
of
buildings
as
single
degree
of
freedom
systems
(SDOF).
Consideration
must
be
given
to
the
likely
structural
failure
mode
and
its
strength
and
stiffness
degradation
during
ground
excitation.
It
may
be
possible
to
identify
the
likely
failure
mode
from
the
structural
configuration
and
seismic
code
used
in
construction.
However,
estimation
of
the
probable
degradation
is
extremely
difficult
as
this
depends
not
only
on
the
structure,
but
also
on
the
ground
motion
characteristics.
However,
Rossetto
(2004)
sustains
that
in
the
case
of
empirical
damage/loss
data,
the
effects
of
inelasticity
in
both
the
seismic
demand
and
structural
response
are
implicitly
included
in
the
observations.
Consequently,
inelasticity
and
period
elongation
during
ground
shaking
is
taken
into
account
in
the
determination
of
the
exceedence
probabilities.
The
inclusion
of
inelasticity
in
the
IM
is,
probably
unnecessary
20
and
the
structure
elastic
period
of
vibration
can
be
used
to
characterise
the
ground
motion
demand
for
all
damage
state
curves.
This
however
does
not
solve
the
question
as
to
which
elastic
period
of
vibration
should
be
used
to
characterise
a
given
building
class,
which
will
naturally
be
composed
of
structures
with
a
range
of
geometrical
and
material
characteristics.
Empirical
functions
relating
building
height
to
fundamental
period
of
vibration
have
been
used
by
several
empirical
studies,
(e.g.
Scawthorn
et
al,
1981
for
mid-‐rise
building
fragility
curves).
Seismic
building
codes
typically
include
such
empirical
relationships
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003
used
those
in
Eurocode
8),
however,
they
tend
to
provide
conservatively
low
values
of
the
structural
elastic
period
as
this
results
in
higher
spectral
acceleration
values,
and
consequently
higher
design
forces.
This
conservatism
is
not
appropriate
for
use
vulnerability
studies.
Crowley
et
al.
(2004)
instead
present
empirical
relationships
for
the
cracked
elastic
period
of
different
structures,
which
provide
a
more
appropriate
estimate
of
fundamental
period
for
use
in
empirical
fragility
studies
but
have
not
yet
been
applied
in
this
context.
All,
these
relationships
for
estimating
the
structure
fundamental
period
assume
that
the
building
height
is
known
or
that
an
average
height
for
a
building
class
can
be
adopted.
Another
solution
is
to
derive
the
structural
period
that
results
in
the
best
fit
of
the
damage
data
to
a
regression
curve.
This
is
done
by
Scawthorn
et
al
(1981)
who
adopt
spectral
acceleration
evaluated
at
a
fundamental
period
of
0.75s
in
deriving
fragility
curves
for
their
low-‐rise
wooden
building
class.
However,
when
considering
the
height
of
structures
in
the
building
class
(1-‐2
storeys),
it
is
questionable
whether
this
value
of
fundamental
period
value
is
representative
of
the
elastic
response
of
the
buildings.
In
order
to
overcome
the
issue
of
fundamental
period
evaluation
for
a
population
of
buildings,
and
in
recognition
of
the
variation
of
fundamental
period
in
a
building
class,
some
reviewed
studies
adopt
spectral
response
parameters
averaged
over
a
range
of
structural
periods
(relevant
to
their
building
class)
for
their
IMs
(e.g.
Scholl
1974).
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
are
the
only
authors
to
derive
empirical
fragility
curves
using
inelastic
spectral
displacement
for
their
IM.
They
assume
each
building
class
to
have
achieved
a
given
ductility
level
at
each
damage
state
in
their
fragility
relationship
and
use
this
to
calculate
the
effective
period
and
inelastic
(overdamped)
spectral
displacement
at
this
structural
period.
Use
of
inelastic
spectral
values
presents
a
problem
when
interpreting
and/or
applying
the
resulting
fragility
functions.
In
the
first
case,
the
IM
values
associated
with
one
structure
at
different
damage
states
is
different
which
means
that
the
proportion
of
buildings
in
each
damage
state
(which
should
sum
to
1)
cannot
be
determined
directly
from
a
single
IM
value.
In
addition,
determination
of
the
ductility
values
corresponding
to
the
damage
states
implies
carrying
out
a
pushover
analysis
of
the
building
being
assessed
if
the
fragility
curves
are
to
be
applied
to
a
structure
type
that
differs
from
those
in
the
study
(for
which
ductility
values
have
been
proposed).
The
plastic
deformation
associated
with
a
damage
state
for
buildings
within
a
structural
class
will
differ
significantly
and
this
source
of
uncertainty
should
be
quantified
and
included
in
the
fragility
calculation,
but
is
not.
Finally,
it
is
worth
noting
that
there
exist
different
definitions
for
peak
ground
motion
and
spectral
parameters,
depending
on
the
treatment
of
the
two
measured
horizontal
components
of
ground
acceleration.
For
engineering
applications,
Baker
and
Cornell
(2006)
noted
that
it
is
important
that
seismologists
and
engineers
use
a
consistent
measure
when
estimating
seismic
hazard
and
structural
response,
and
this
applies
similarly
for
loss
assessment.
GMPEs
are
available
for
the
geometric
mean
of
two
measured
components,
the
maximum
of
two
measured
components,
and
other
mean
or
maximum
definitions.
Existing
studies
on
fragility
and
vulnerability
relationships
are
not
explicit
on
which
definition
has
been
used;
when
instrumental
intensity
measures
have
been
estimated
from
GMPEs,
the
original
GMPE
reference
would
need
to
be
consulted
to
determine
which
definition
was
used.
Demand
estimates
based
on
a
maximum
measure
are
likely
to
be
better
correlated
with
damage
than
geometric
mean
measures
(Grant,
21
2011),
but
intensity
estimates
of
the
latter
are
more
stable,
as
extreme
values
are
averaged
out
(Baker
and
Cornell,
2006).
22
of
these
fragility
curves
are
effectively
inter-‐dependent
and
the
horizontal
axis
can
no
longer
be
regarded
as
representative
of
the
observed
strong
ground
motion.
Care
must
be
taken
in
adopting
fragility
or
vulnerability
curves
from
older
studies
that
use
spectral
ordinates
as
IMs.
In
past
studies
based
on
relatively
limited
computing
power,
standard
spectral
shapes
(such
as
Trifunac
1977
by
Scawthorn
et
al
1981)
or
pseudo
spectral
values
may
have
been
used
(e,g,
pseudo
spectral
displacement
in
Scawthorn
et
al
1981).
The
use
of
pseudo
spectral
values
was
investigated
by
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
who
considered
two
methods
for
deriving
spectral
displacement
with
5%
damping
in
their
fragility
study
of
Italian
buildings:
(1)
the
pseudo-‐spectral
velocity
GMPE
of
Sabetta
and
Pugliese
(1996),
transformed
to
spectral
displacement
via
the
pseudo-‐spectral
functions;
and
(2)
the
use
of
a
GMPE
for
spectral
displacement
Sd(T)
by
Faccioli
et
al
(2007).
They
report
that
the
epistemic
uncertainty
in
the
GMPE
has
a
large
influence
on
the
fragility
curves
generated,
as
they
predict
widely
different
Sd(T)
values
for
the
same
building
classes.
This
section
aims
to
critically
review
existing
procedures
used
for
the
construction
of
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions.
In
particular,
the
focus
is
on
issues
regarding
the
treatment
of
uncertainty,
especially
the
manipulation
or
combination
of
damage
and
loss
data
in
databases,
the
selection
of
a
model
to
express
the
functions,
the
adopted
optimisation
processes,
and
procedures
and
tests
used
to
establish
confidence
of
the
chosen
relationship
to
the
data
and
to
communicate
the
overall
uncertainty
in
the
relationship.
23
combination
with
other
databases.
In
what
follows,
the
main
procedures
for
data
manipulation
and
combination
found
in
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment
literature
are
discussed.
Some
studies
address
high
sampling
errors
by
aggregating
data
from
various
detailed
building
classes
into
more
general
ones.
For
example,
Braga
et
al
(1982)
combine
the
detailed
building
typologies
used
by
the
1980
Irpinia
database
into
three
vulnerability
classes
in
line
with
the
requirements
of
the
MSK-‐76
macroseismic
scale.
However,
as
buildings
with
different
geometries
and
structural
systems
are
grouped
together,
uncertainty
in
the
resulting
vulnerability
or
fragility
increases.
Moreover,
the
ability
of
the
obtained
general
functions
based
on
heterogeneous
data
to
represent
subclasses
of
buildings
with
very
small
contribution
to
the
overall
sample
size
of
the
class
is
questionable
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003).
Some
of
the
reviewed
studies
combine
loss
or
damage
databases
from
multiple
events.
Several
empirical
vulnerability
or
fragility
studies
combine
loss
or
damage
data
from
several
earthquakes
in
the
same
country
in
an
attempt
to
overcome
data
scarcity,
e.g.
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
and
Rota
et
al
(2008)
for
Italy,
Gulkan
et
al
(1992)
for
Turkey
and
Amiri
et
al
(2007)
for
Iran,
Jaiswal
and
Wald
(2010)
for
casualty
data
in
Italy,
India
and
Iraq.
These
studies
largely
retain
the
advantage
of
consistently
assembled
damage
survey
data
for
similar
asset
classes
(if
post-‐earthquake
survey
procedures
have
not
substantially
changed
over
the
considered
time
frame),
but
significant
differences
may
be
found
in
adopted
methods
for
casualty
and
economic
loss
data
collection.
Although
functions
derived
from
multiple
earthquake
databases
tend
to
include
data
over
a
wider
range
of
IMs
than
single
event
functions,
due
to
the
infrequency
of
large
earthquake
events
near
urban
areas,
the
datasets
are
still
seen
to
be
highly
clustered
in
the
low-‐damage/loss,
low-‐IM
range.
In
areas
of
medium
and
low
seismicity,
this
may
be
acceptable
if
the
IM
values
covered
by
the
data
sufficiently
represent
the
ground
shaking
that
can
be
generated
by
locally
feasible
events.
A
few
studies
are
seen
to
combine
empirical
loss
or
damage
data
for
similar
asset
types
from
multiple
events
and
countries
worldwide
in
order
to
obtain
data
over
a
wider
range
of
IM
values,
or
simply
a
larger
quantity
of
data
from
which
to
construct
the
functions.
However,
even
in
these
cases
the
number
of
datasets
available
for
high-‐damage
states
and
high-‐IM
values
are
few
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003).
Implicit
in
the
studies
is
the
assumption
that
the
uncertainty
in
the
seismic
performance
of
individual
buildings
is
larger
than
the
uncertainty
in
the
performance
of
buildings
in
different
earthquake.
This
assumption
has
not
been
addressed
anywhere
in
the
literature.
In
addition,
none
of
the
aforementioned
studies
provided
a
thorough
discussion
on
the
criteria
for
selecting
the
seismic
events.
Existing
loss
estimation
methods
(e.g.
Coburn
and
Spence,
2002)
and
some
fragility
functions
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003)
are
seen
to
combine
databases
from
different
tectonic
environments
and/or
significantly
different
fault
systems.
These
methods
assume
that
the
variability
in
IM
and
resulting
damage
are
sufficiently
accounted
for
by
the
ground
motion
prediction
equations
(GMPEs)
used
to
estimate
the
IMs.
However,
few
use
GMPEs
that
appropriately
distinguish
between
different
faulting
mechanisms.
In
addition,
the
combined
databases
are
associated
with
different
degrees
of
reliability.
This
is
typically
not
taken
into
account
in
the
curve
fitting
procedures
used
(but
should
be).
Finally,
it
is
well
known
that
fatality
rates
are
affected
by
a
number
of
factors
that
are
specific
to
the
event
and
location
(such
as
time
of
day
of
the
event,
working
practices
and
local
customs,
effectiveness
of
response
teams,
etc.).
Hence,
the
combination
of
multiple
event
data
from
diverse
environments
into
simple
fatality
ratio
estimation
models
that
do
not
explicitly
take
such
factors
into
account
can
add
significant
uncertainty
to
the
loss
estimate.
For
example,
this
is
true
of
the
empirical
fatality
vulnerability
functions
proposed
by
Jaiswal
and
Wald
(2010),
who
combine
casualty
data
for
multiple
earthquake
events
at
a
national
level,
without
accounting
for
the
influence
of
population
demographic
characteristics,
season
or
time
of
day.
Most
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
studies
aggregate
the
damage
or
loss
data
into
isoseismic
units,
which
assumes
that
the
buildings
in
the
isoseismic
unit
are
subjected
to
the
same
ground
motion
intensity.
24
The
number
of
isoseismic
units
(and
hence
data
points)
that
have
been
used
to
construct
individual
vulnerability
or
fragility
curves
of
this
type
range
from
3
(e.g.
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010)
to
approximately
79
(Yang
et
al
1989).
In
larger
databases,
individual
datapoints
are
also
seen
to
be
aggregated
into
“bins”
of
similar
ground
motion
intensity
values,
resulting
in
a
smaller
number
of
datapoints
for
regression
(e.g.
Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2004;
Rota
et
al.
2008).
This
tendency
for
aggregation
might
be
traced
to
two
main
reasons.
The
first
reason
is
the
general
lack
of
very
detailed
building-‐by-‐building
databases.
The
data
are
often
only
available
in
an
aggregated
form.
The
second
reason
stems
from
the
common
use
of
least
squares
methods
of
regression
for
model
fitting.
In
the
unweighted
form
of
the
least
squares
method
the
reliability
of
the
fitted
model
is
based
on
the
number
of
data
points,
which
in
the
case
of
fragility,
is
the
number
of
points
expressing
the
probability
of
a
building
reaching
or
exceeding
a
damage
state
given
various
levels
of
ground
motion
intensity,
and
not
the
total
number
of
buildings
in
the
database.
This
means
that
a
data
point
based
on
5
buildings
is
as
important
as
a
data
point
based
on
1000
buildings.
To
avoid
datapoints
deriving
from
small
numbers
of
observations
strongly
influencing
the
model
fit,
some
studies
specify
a
minimum
threshold
number
of
buildings
for
data
points,
below
which
the
data
points
are
considered
unreliable
and
ignored
(e.g.
20
buildings
for
Spence
et
al,
1992
and
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010).
In
the
reviewed
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
literature,
the
effect
of
different
aggregation
assumptions
(e.g.
chosen
minimum
thresholds
of
buildings
in
a
datapoint,
size
of
bins,
bin
ranges)
is
not
fully
understood
and
has
not
been
systematically
studied.
Finally,
manipulation
of
damage
and
loss
data
in
a
database
to
prepare
it
for
combination
with
other
databases
usually
involves
the
interpretation
or
mapping
of
the
damage
states
of
the
data
onto
a
different
damage
scale.
Direct
mapping
of
data
discretised
according
to
a
large
number
of
damage
states
to
scales
with
fewer
(or
equal
number
of)
damage
states
(e.g.
in
Braga
et
al,
1982,
and
assumed
in
Spence
et
al
1992)
introduces
uncertainties.
However,
it
is
assumed
in
the
literature
that
these
are
small
and
are
never
seen
to
be
explicitly
quantified.
Mapping
from
a
small
number
to
large
number
of
damage
states
must
assume
some
distribution
of
the
damage
data
within
the
larger
damage
state
classes.
This
should
not
be
done
unless
the
original
damage
survey
forms
are
available
and
are
detailed
enough
to
allow
for
a
larger
number
of
damage
states
to
be
defined
(as
is
the
case
in
Rota
et
al,
2008).
Despite
this,
Sarabandi
et
al
(2004)
and
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
have
carried
out
such
damage
state
mapping,
both
following
a
similar
procedure.
In
the
former,
a
mean
damage
factor
value
is
assigned
to
the
damage
scales
within
each
damage
scale
used,
according
to
the
damage
scale
definition.
In
the
latter
a
maximum
interstorey
drift
(ISD)
value
is
assigned
to
the
damage
states
of
all
damage
scales
used
in
their
database,
through
comparison
of
the
damage
state
descriptions
with
those
of
their
proposed
and
experimentally
calibrated
damage
scale.
These
DF/ISD
values
are
used
to
fit
lognormal/beta
distributions
to
each
reported
damage
frequency
plot
for
a
given
IM
and
site.
These
fitted
distributions
are
then
used
to
derive
the
proportion
of
buildings
in
damage
states
defined
by
their
damage
scale
DF/ISD
thresholds.
Neither
study
explicitly
quantifies
the
uncertainty
introduced
by
damage
scale
mapping.
25
Braga
et
al
(1982),
Sabetta
et
al
(1998),
Di
Pasquale
et
al
(2005)
and
Roca
et
al
(2006)
all
fit
discrete
binomial
distributions
to
their
histograms
of
damage.
This
distribution
is
fully
described
by
a
single
parameter,
which
Sabetta
et
al
(1998)
correlated
through
a
third
degree
polynomial
with
the
ground
motion
intensity
in
order
to
develop
their
representation
of
fragility.
Instead,
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
adopt
continuous
beta
distributions,
which
are
fully
described
by
two
parameters.
In
theory,
using
a
model
with
more
parameters
may
improve
the
fit.
However,
the
use
of
a
continuous
distribution
in
this
case
requires
the
correlation
of
each
discrete
qualitative
damage
state
with
a
threshold
of
a
loss
or
response
parameter.
Such
functions
are
mainly
judgement
based,
and
rarely
validated
with
experimental
or
observational
data,
thus
this
can
introduce
additional,
and
perhaps
substantial,
uncertainty
in
the
model.
Where
continuous
functions
expressing
the
probability
of
buildings
being
in
a
damage
state
versus
ground
motion
intensity
are
proposed,
these
functions
are
seen
to
be
either
linear
(e.g.
Scholl
1974,
and
Scawthorn
et
al,
1981)
or
exponential
(e.g.
Petrovski
and
Milutovic,
1990).
Another
continuous
representation
of
the
fragility
is
the
fragility
curve.
In
this
representation,
the
majority
of
empirical
studies
adopt
lognormal
cumulative
distribution
functions
(LN_CDF).
The
popularity
of
LN_CDF
can
be
attributed
to
three
properties.
Firstly,
this
function
is
constrained
in
the
y-‐axis
between
[0,
1],
which
is
ideal
for
fitting
data
points
expressing
aggregated
probabilities.
Secondly,
with
regard
to
the
x-‐axis,
the
values
are
constrained
in
(0,
+∞).
This
agrees
with
the
range
of
almost
all
the
ground
motion
intensity
measures.
Thirdly,
this
distribution
appears
to
be
skewed
to
the
left,
and
can
thus,
theoretically
at
least,
better
reflect
the
frequency
of
the
observations
which
are
mostly
clustered
at
low
ground
motion
intensities.
The
normal
cumulative
distribution
function
(N_CDF)
is
the
second
most
popular
regression
curve
in
the
empirical
fragility
assessment
literature.
It
is
mostly
preferred
by
studies
(e.g.
Spence
et
al,
1992;
Orsini,
1999;
Karababa
and
Pomonis,
2010)
that
use
intensity
measures
that
range
from
(-‐∞,
+∞),
e.g.
PSI.
Nonetheless,
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki
(2000)
express
their
fragility
curves
in
terms
of
this
distribution
despite
their
intensity
measure
being
discrete
and
positive.
Instead
of
using
a
cumulative
probability
distribution,
an
exponential
function,
which
is
unconstrained
in
both
x-‐
and
y-‐axis
has
been
adopted
by
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
and
Amiri
et
al
(2007).
The
use
of
a
non-‐
probability
distribution
function
to
express
the
fragility
curves
may
have
implications
in
the
risk
assessment,
which
requires
its
coupling
with
a
hazard
curve
to
produce
the
annual
probability
of
reaching
or
exceeding
a
damage
state.
In
the
reviewed
vulnerability
functions,
Jaiswal
and
Wald
(2010)
adopt
the
lognormal
distribution
to
express
death
rate
in
terms
of
the
ground
motion
intensity,
in
line
with
most
fragility
assessment
methodologies.
By
contrast,
many
other
casualty
vulnerability
functions
correlate
the
total
death
rate
with
earthquake
magnitude
due
to
the
lack
of
more
refined
data.
The
use
of
magnitude
ignores
a
number
of
significant
contributors
to
loss
such
as
the
source-‐to-‐site
distance,
the
soil
conditions,
and
the
tectonic
environment,
thus
increasing
the
uncertainty
in
the
model.
In
such
studies,
linear
functions
are
often
used
to
correlate
death
rates
and
magnitudes.
Similar
functions
are
proposed
for
economic
loss
by
Thráinsson
and
Sigbjörnsson
(1994),
who
correlate
loss
to
earthquake
magnitude
and
source-‐to-‐site
distance.
In
the
reviewed
literature,
economic
loss
is
directly
correlated
to
other
IMs
through
a
number
of
different
function
forms,
such
as
linear
(e.g.
Petrovski
et
al,
1984)
and
power
functions
(e.g.
Scawthorn,
1981).
A
different
approach
is
proposed
by
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
who
fit
a
gamma
distribution
to
insurance
economic
loss
data
in
each
isoseismic
unit,
and
then
correlated
the
two
parameter
of
this
distribution
with
the
intensity
through
the
use
of
continuous
exponential
and
polynomial
functions.
Yang
et
al
(1989)
follow
a
similar
approach
to
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
in
their
indirect
vulnerability
assessment
method.
They
fit
normal
distributions
truncated
in
[0,1]
to
the
data
in
each
IM
value
(in
this
case
MMI
Intensity),
and
then
correlate
the
two
parameters
of
26
this
distribution
(i.e.
the
mean
and
standard
deviation)
to
the
IM
through
the
use
of
linear
functions.
With
regard
to
the
remaining
indirect
vulnerability
functions,
the
mean
economic
loss
given
discrete
levels
of
intensity
is
obtained
in
most
studies
with
the
exception
of
Elefteriadou
and
Karabinis
(2011),
who
obtain
multi-‐linear
piecewise
vulnerability
functions
from
the
aforementioned
discrete
values.
The
general
forms
of
relationship
here
described
are
all
presented
in
Appendix
A.
⎢ j =1 ⎥∑ ⎡
⎢ j =1 ⎣ ∑ ⎤
⎦ ⎥
(
θopt = argmin ⎢ ε 2j ⎥ = argmin ⎢ ⎢w j y j − f θ, im j ⎥ ⎥
( )) (2.4)
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦
where
yj
is
data
point
j
based
on
loss
or
damage
observations
(a
data
point
can
express
the
damage
ratio
sustained
by
an
isoseismic
unit
with
intensity
IM=imj
or
the
probability
of
buildings
sustaining
or
exceeding
a
specified
damage
state
in
this
isoseismic
unit);
m
is
the
number
of
data
points;
wj
is
the
weight
for
data
point
j;
m
is
the
number
of
data
points;
f(θ,imj)
is
the
predicted
value
based
on
a
predetermined
function
f(.)
with
parameters
θ=[θ1,
θ2,
…,θN];
εj
is
the
error
at
point
j
which
is
considered
independent
and
normally
distributed
for
each
j
with
mean
zero
and
constant
standard
deviation.
In
most
direct
vulnerability
assessment
studies,
the
parameters,
θ,
are
linearly
combined
in
the
proposed
functions,
therefore
their
values
are
estimated
by
a
closed
form
solution
through
the
linear
least
squares
method.
This
method
is
also
overwhelmingly
adopted
in
the
fragility
assessment
studies
to
fit
cumulative
lognormal
or
normal
distributions
to
the
damage
data.
The
application
of
this
method
for
the
estimation
of
parameters
nonlinearly
combined
in
the
fragility
functions
requires
the
linearisation
of
the
fragility
functions
(e.g.
Yamazaki
and
Murao,
2000;
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki,
2000;
Beneddetti
et
al.
1998)
in
the
form:
f −1 y j = θ1im j + θ2 + ε j
( ) (2.5)
Also
required
is
the
transformation
of
the
data
points
into
the
form:
(ln(imj),
Φ-‐1(yj))
or
(imj,
Φ-‐1(yj))
for
the
cumulative
lognormal
and
normal
distributions,
respectively.
However,
this
transformation
may
introduce
bias
to
the
estimation
of
the
mean
fragility
curves.
This
bias
is
more
evident
when
yj
is
very
close
to
the
extreme
values
of
0
and
1,
as
the
transformation
is
not
feasible
for
these
values,
limiting
the
applicability
of
27
this
approach.
Procedures
(e.g.
Porter
et
al,
2007)
that
have
attempted
to
deal
with
the
transformation
of
yj=0
seem
questionable
(Baker,
2011).
However,
the
transformation
of
the
selected
model
does
not
lead
to
bias
in
cases
where
an
exponential
function
(e.g.
Eq.(A.6))
is
fitted.
A
handful
of
fragility
assessment
studies
avoid
this
bias
(Rossetto
and
Elnashai,
2003;
Amiri
et
al.
2007;
Rota
et
al.
2008)
through
the
numerical
estimation
of
the
parameters
by
the
use
of
the
nonlinear
least
square
method.
However,
the
nature
of
damage
data
typically
is
seen
to
violate
the
assumptions
of
this
approach
with
regard
to
error
normality
and
error
homoscedasticity
(i.e.
constant
error
for
each
level
of
IM).
For
example,
the
normality
of
the
error
is
clearly
violated
by
the
fact
that
exceedence
probability
is
a
variable
bounded
between
0
and
1.
In
addition,
the
homoscedasticity
assumption
is
violated
given
that
the
uncertainty
in
seismic
performance
for
extreme
levels
of
intensity
is
considered
lower
than
for
the
intermediate
intensity
measure
levels.
Some
studies
attempt
to
address
the
heteroskedasticity
requirement
by
using
weighing
techniques.
Sabetta
et
al.
(1998)
weight
the
least
squares
by
the
number
of
buildings
in
each
isoseismic
unit.
The
use
of
buildings
by
the
latter
study,
however,
implies
sample
sizes
that
vary
from
few
tens
to
few
thousands,
and
this
difference
is
unlikely
to
reduce
the
heteroskedasticity.
A
different
weighting
technique
is
adopted
by
Rota
et
al
(2008),
where
datasets
falling
within
an
IM
bin
are
grouped
into
one
data
point
for
the
regression.
The
bootstrap
technique
is
adopted
to
find
the
variance
values
to
represent
the
scatter
in
the
mean
data
point
in
each
bin.
The
inverse
of
this
variance
is
used
to
weight
the
least
squares
in
Eq.
(2.4)
in
order
to
reduce
the
impact
of
bins
with
small
numbers
of
data
points.
Nonetheless,
the
effect
of
these
schemes
on
heteroskedasticity
is
questionable.
Instead
of
weighting
techniques
Jaiswal
and
Wald
(2010)
address
the
heteroskedastic
error
by
use
of
a
different
objective
function.
The
level
of
bias
introduced
in
the
generated
mean
fragility
curves
by
fitting
models
using
a
nonlinear
least
squares
method
with
violated
assumptions
is
an
issue
of
ongoing
research
(e.g.
Ioannou
et
al.
2012).
There
are
indications,
however,
that
the
differences
compared
to
more
realistic
models
(e.g.
the
generalized
least
squares
model)
are
evident
in
the
tails
of
the
distributions
(e.g.
Lallemant
and
Kiremidjian
2012).
Few
existing
studies
adopt
the
maximum
likelihood
method
in
order
to
estimate
the
parameters
of
statistical
models
used
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment.
Such
studies
maximise
the
likelihood
function,
which
has
the
form:
⎡ m ⎤
θopt = argmax ⎢ ∏( )
f y j ; θ, x j ⎥
(2.6)
⎢ j =1
⎥
⎣ ⎦
where
f(.)
is
the
probability
density
function
of
a
variable
with
parameters
θ;.
This
approach
was
used
by
Yang
et
al
(1989)
and
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
to
fit
truncated
normal
and
gamma
distributions,
respectively,
to
their
isoseismic
unit
loss
data.
Ioannou
et
al.
(2012)
also
adopt
this
method
in
order
to
fit
a
generalised
linear
model
to
damage
data.
According
to
the
latter
study,
individual
fragility
curves
were
constructed
from
data
points
having
the
form
(xj,(yj,
mj-‐yj)),
which
express
the
intensity
level
imj
that
affect
an
isoseismic
unit
j
causing
yj
buildings
to
suffer
damage
DS≥dsi
and
causing
mj-‐yj
buildings
to
suffer
damage
DS<dsi.
A
generalized
linear
model
is
then
constructed,
which
considers
that
the
counts
of
data
with
DS<dsi
and
DS≥dsi
for
each
unit
j
follow
a
binomial
distribution,
having
a
likelihood
function
in
the
form:
28
M
⎛ m j ⎞ yj m j −y j
L ( θ ) = ∏ ⎜ ⎟ µ ( im j ; θ ) ⎡⎣1 − µ ( im j ; θ )⎤⎦ =
y
j =1 ⎝ j ⎠
(2.7)
M
⎛ m j ⎞ yj m j −y j
( )
= ∏ ⎜ ⎟ Φ θ1 ln ( im j ) + θ 2 ⎡1 − Φ θ1 ln ( im j ) + θ 2 ⎤
j =1 ⎝ y j ⎠
⎣ ⎦ ( )
The
mean
μ(imj;θ),
which
fully
defines
the
binomial
distribution,
is
assumed
to
follow
the
probit
function
with
log(IM),
which
is
essentially
equivalent
to
the
lognormal
cumulative
distribution
function
as
presented
in
the
right
side
of
Eq.(2.7).
The
parameters
of
this
statistical
model
are
estimated
by
maximizing
the
likelihood
function.
Contrary
to
the
model
expressed
in
Eq.(2.4),
this
model
provides
a
better,
in
theory
at
least,
representation
of
the
damage
data
given
that
(i)
it
recognizes
that
the
fragility
curves
are
bounded
in
[0,1],
(ii).
it
successfully
relaxes
the
assumption
of
constant
variance
of
residuals
by
accommodating
for
smaller
uncertainty
in
the
tails
of
the
mean
µ,
and
higher
in
the
middle,
and
(iii).
It
takes
into
account
that
some
points
have
a
larger
overall
number
of
buildings
than
others.
Determination
of
the
goodness
of
fit
of
the
selected
models
to
the
adopted
data
involves
procedures
for
assessing
the
validity
of
the
assumptions
on
which
the
fitted
statistical
model
fitted
is
based,
and
on
ways
to
identify
the
best
model
amongst
acceptable
models.
Despite
the
importance
of
these
procedures
in
determining
the
reliability
of
proposed
models,
only
Ioannou
et
al.
(2012)
provide
any
detail
on
goodness
of
fit
checks
carried
out,
and
recognize,
in
their
case,
the
need
for
more
detailed
damage
data
and
perhaps
more
sophisticated
statistical
models.
A
small
number
of
existing
fragility
and
vulnerability
studies
provide
an
incomplete
goodness-‐of-‐fit
assessment
by
accompanying
their
curves
with
the
coefficient
of
determination
(R2)
in
the
case
that
linear
least
squares
regression
is
used
or
the
sum
of
the
least
squares
if
nonlinear
regression
analysis
is
adopted.
However,
these
measures
cannot
highlight
potential
violation
of
the
assumptions
on
which
the
statistical
models
are
based.
In
two
studies
(King
et
al.
2005;
Frolova
et
al.
2011),
the
Smirnov-‐Kolmogorov
goodness-‐of-‐fit
test
was
used
to
assess
the
suitability
of
the
selected
probability
distribution.
Existing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
studies
overwhelmingly
fail
to
provide
a
deeper
insight
on
the
goodness
of
fit
of
the
selected
model
by
quantifying
the
uncertainty
in
the
estimated
parameters
and
constructing
confidence
intervals
around
the
mean
fragility
curves,
which
can
illustrate
the
uncertainty
introduced
by
the
often
limited
number
of
data.
Notable
exceptions
in
the
fragility
literature
are
Braga
et
al
(1982),
Orsini
(1999)
and
Amiri
et
al
(2007).
Braga
et
al
(1982)
propose
upper
and
lower
bounds
for
the
parameter
of
their
discrete
damage
probability
matrices
but
do
not
associate
these
bounds
with
a
confidence
level.
Similarly,
Orsini
(1999)
estimates
upper
and
lower
bounds
for
their
damage
probability
matrices
for
given
levels
of
MSK,
corresponding
to
the
upper
and
lower
bound
of
PSI
for
this
intensity
measure.
Amiri
et
al
(2007)
also
estimate
the
90%
confidence
intervals
of
the
parameters
of
their
fragility
curves.
However,
the
envelope
of
the
fragility
curves
obtained
from
the
four
combinations
of
the
upper
and
lower
bound
of
the
parameters
often
takes
negative
values,
perhaps
due
to
the
small
number
of
data
points
in
combination
with
the
inappropriate
statistical
model
selected.
With
regard
to
vulnerability
assessment
studies,
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
estimate
confidence
intervals
for
the
parameters
of
the
gamma
distribution
for
each
isoseismic
unit
for
which
loss
data
is
available
by
using
the
bootstrap
technique.
Only
two
studies
are
instead
seen
to
construct
prediction
intervals
for
their
fragility
curves,
which
account
for
the
above
uncertainty
as
well
as
the
typically
large
scatter
in
the
data
points
from
different
isoseismic
units.
In
particular,
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
attempt
to
estimate
the
90%
prediction
intervals
by
taking
into
account
the
non-‐constant
error
noted
in
their
analysis.
It
is
noted
that
these
prediction
intervals
could
be
biased
given
that
the
non-‐constant
error
violates
one
of
the
assumptions
on
which
their
regression
is
based.
Ioannou
et
al
(2012)
use
a
bootstrap
in
29
order
to
construct
point
wise
prediction
intervals
corresponding
to
their
data
points
and
highlight
the
difficulties
in
projecting
these
intervals
for
future
groups
of
buildings
and
the
need
for
further
research.
2.4.5 Method
of
Conversion
of
Damage
to
Loss
in
“Indirect”
Vulnerability
Curves
The
estimation
of
indirect
vulnerability
from
fragility
functions
requires
the
use
of
damage-‐to-‐loss
conversion
functions.
The
treatment
of
uncertainty
in
these
functions
by
the
reviewed
studies
is
discussed
here.
In
the
case
of
economic
losses,
damage
factors
are
commonly
correlated
to
the
discrete
qualitative
damage
states
by
the
use
of
field
data,
insurance
claims,
engineering
judgement,
or
combination
of
the
aforementioned
sources.
With
the
exception
of
Yang
et
al
(1989)
and
Spence
et
al
(2003)
who
adopt
different
damage
factors
for
each
building
class,
overwhelmingly
the
damage
factors
adopted
are
assumed
independent
of
the
building
typology
in
existing
vulnerability
studies.
This
is
counterintuitive,
as
different
building
types
damaged
to
the
same
level
are
unlikely
to
have
the
same
cost
of
repair.
Damage-‐to-‐loss
functions
are
commonly
expressed
deterministically
in
terms
of
a
best
estimate
level
of
the
damage
factor
given
a
damage
state.
The
only
exception
is
noted
in
the
study
of
Dolce
et
al
(2006)
who
introduce
the
aleatory
uncertainty
in
these
functions
by
adopting
beta
distributions
of
the
damage
factor
for
each
damage
state.
It
should
be
mentioned
that
the
epistemic
uncertainty
of
these
functions,
expressed
in
terms
of
a
family
of
probability
distributions
of
the
loss
given
a
damage
state,
is
not
explicitly
treated
anywhere
in
the
reviewed
studies.
Indirect
vulnerability
approaches
to
casualty
estimation
typically
only
include
fragility
functions
for
the
damage
state
of
collapse
in
their
calculation
of
fatalities
(e.g.
Murakami,
1992).
The
estimated
number
of
collapsed
(and
sometimes
heavily
damaged)
buildings
is
converted
to
number
of
fatalities
by
considering
that
a
defined
proportion
of
the
people
likely
to
be
in
the
building
type
are
killed
(lethality
ratio).
Quite
complex
models
are
seen
to
exist
for
determining
both
the
stated
proportion
and
level
of
building
occupancy.
Such
models
(e.g.
Coburn
and
Spence,
2002;
Nichols
and
Beavers,
2003)
combine
a
number
of
parameters
that
are
supposed
to
represent
the
proportion
of
occupants
directly
killed,
those
trapped,
and
the
proportion
of
those
trapped
that
are
then
rescued.
The
numerical
values
of
the
parameters
and
the
parameter
distributions
change
according
to
building
type,
and
are
based
on
data
but
undoubtedly
contain
some
level
of
judgement.
In
existing
casualty
studies,
the
level
of
occupancy
of
buildings
is
often
estimated
from
census
data.
These
values
of
occupancy
can
be
used
directly,
or
modified
through
empirical
or
judgement-‐based
factors
to
take
into
account
the
influence
on
occupancy
of
tourism,
occupant
behaviour,
season
and
time
of
day
of
earthquake,
(amongst
others).
Very
complex
models
for
converting
building
damage
into
fatalities
are
not
currently
justified
by
the
data
used
for
their
calibration,
as
this
is
rarely
very
detailed,
plentiful
or
reliable
(see
also
Section
2.2.4).
Ideally,
the
validity
of
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
should
be
determined
through
comparison
with
independent
post-‐earthquake
observations.
However,
in
the
reviewed
literature
only
two
studies
are
seen
to
do
this.
Orsini
(1999)
compare
the
overall
loss
obtained
indirectly
from
their
fragility
curves
(which
are
constructed
from
the
1980
Irpinia
damage
database)
with
the
overall
loss
caused
by
the
1997
Umbria-‐
Marche
earthquake.
Spence
et
al
(2003)
compare
their
DPMs
(developed
from
observations
from
several
Turkish
earthquakes)
with
the
damage
frequencies
in
two
sites
affected
by
the
Kocaeli
1999
(Turkey)
30
earthquake.
However,
it
is
unclear
from
the
study
whether
or
not
the
damage
data
from
Kocaeli
used
for
the
validation
was
also
included
in
the
construction
of
their
DPMs.
The
lack
of
interest
in
this
type
of
validation
can
perhaps
be
attributed
to
the
common
practice
of
using
all
available
datasets
for
the
construction
of
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
in
order
to
get
adequate
sample
sizes.
The
main
procedure
adopted
for
validation
of
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
in
existing
empirical
studies
is
the
comparison
with
other
functions
constructed
for
similar
asset
types
by
the
same
or
other
authors.
Orsini
(1999)
compares
the
upper
and
lower
bound
of
his
DPMs
for
each
level
of
intensity
with
their
counterparts
obtained
for
the
Umbria-‐Marche
1997
earthquake.
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki
(2001)
compare
their
fragility
curves
with
their
counterparts
obtained
for
similar
building
types
by
Miyakoshi
et
al
(1998)
using
the
same
database.
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
and
Rossetto
(2004)
validate
their
empirical
fragility
functions
with
the
analytical
vulnerability
curves
they
developed.
Rota
et
al
(2008)
use
the
judgement-‐based
approach
proposed
by
Giovinazzi
and
Lagomarsimo
(2006)
to
validate
their
fragility
curves.
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis
(2011)
compare
the
multi-‐linear
piecewise
loss
curves
obtained
indirectly
from
their
DPMs
with
their
counterparts
estimated
by
hybrid
and
empirical
methods
for
similar
Greek
building
types.
In
all
these
cases,
the
comparisons
made
are
visual
only,
and
no
systematic
comparison
of
quantitative
values
is
carried
out.
31
• Constrained
categories:
The
observations
are
clearly
made
from
specimens
of
the
asset
category
in
question,
and
the
category
is
clearly
defined
(passing
the
so-‐called
clarity
test).
Components Attributes Criteria
Damage Observations
Excitation Observations
Database Quality
Constrained Building Class
Data Quantity
Treatment of uncertainty
Hindcasting
Overall Quality Rationality
Cross-Validation
Rating First Principles
Scheme
Documentation Quality Documentation Quality
Relevance Representativeness
Figure
3.1.
Components,
attributes
and
criteria
of
the
proposed
rating
system.
Representativeness:
The
specimens
observed
are
broadly
representative
of
the
diversity
of
assets
in
the
category,
considering
material
properties,
building
configuration,
detailing,
geographic
extent,
and
variety
of
failure
modes.
Note:
This
criterion
refers
here
to
the
representativeness
of
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
curves
for
the
needs
of
a
particular
future
project.
For
example,
the
indirect
empirical
vulnerability
assessment
of
casualties
is
based
on
the
presence
of
reliable
fragility
functions
corresponding
to
the
collapse
and
heavy
damage.
However,
the
rating
of
this
criterion
for
the
functions
presented
in
the
compendium
(Appendix
B)
is
not
presented.
Instead,
future
users
are
encouraged
to
rate
the
representativeness
of
existing
studies
according
to
the
specific
needs
of
their
project.
Rationality:
An
overall
rating
of
hindcasting,
cross
validation,
first
principles,
and
treat
uncertainty:
• Treat
uncertainty:
The
author
identifies
and
treats
the
major
sources
of
uncertainty
in
asset
category
and
value,
excitation,
and
loss
or
damage.
By
“uncertainty
in
asset
category,”
the
question
is
how
well
constrained
the
observations
are
as
to
the
membership
of
the
observed
assets
in
the
asset
category.
If
replacement
value
or
construction
cost
is
a
parameter
of
the
model,
how
well
established
are
those
values?
Unless
specimens
were
instrumented
or
very
near
instrumentation,
the
excitation
to
which
specimens
were
subjected
can
be
highly
uncertain,
especially
if
estimated
using
ground-‐motion
prediction
equations
or
in
terms
of
macroseismic
intensity.
Is
the
excitation
so
crisply
defined
that
there
can
be
no
ambiguity?
For
example,
spectral
acceleration
response
at
some
specified
damping
ratio
and
period
can
be
ambiguous
unless
direction
is
specified.
Damage
is
more
certain
if
it
is
defined
in
terms
of
measurable
quantities,
less
if
qualitative
and
highly
subject
to
32
interpretation.
Loss
is
more
certain
if
the
repair
costs
(or
other
loss
measures)
were
actually
recorded
and
distinct
from
modifications
or
other
costs
unrelated
to
damage,
less
if
loss
were
estimated,
or
otherwise
subject
to
different
interpretation
by
different
observers.
• First
principles:
The
vulnerability
function
or
fragility
function
seems
reasonable
in
light
of
engineering
principles
of
hazard
analysis,
structural
analysis,
damage
analysis,
and
loss
analysis.
The
rationality
of
analytically
derived
structural
vulnerability
and
fragility
should
reflect
the
degree
to
which
the
structural
analysis
follows
current,
peer-‐reviewed
procedures.
• Hindcasting:
The
vulnerability
function
or
fragility
function
reasonably
hindcasts
loss
or
damages
in
some
significant
past
event,
especially
if
the
data
source
and
events
being
hindcast
are
independent.
• Cross
validation:
The
vulnerability
function
at
least
roughly
agrees
with
some
prior
accepted
model.
If
it
disagrees,
the
disagreement
seems
reasonable
in
light
of
shortcomings
in
the
past
model,
or
differences
between
the
asset
classes
of
the
past
model
and
the
one
in
question.
Documentation
quality:
All
the
necessary
inputs,
outputs,
and
analytical
steps
are
clearly
documented
to
a
level
that
will
allow
the
study
to
be
reproduced
by
others.
The
documentation
is
readily
available
to
future
users.
The
documentation
has
been
independently
peer
reviewed.
The
proposed
system
allows
for
four
possible
values
to
be
assigned
to
each
criterion:
• ‘H’:
Superior,
meaning
little,
if
anything,
could
have
been
done
better.
• ‘M’:
Average,
meaning
the
work
is
of
acceptable
quality,
though
there
are
areas
for
improvement
or
further
research.
• ‘L’:
Marginal,
means
that
the
work
is
acceptable
for
use
but
only
if
there
are
no
practical
alternatives;
and
much
improvement
or
further
research
is
needed.
• ‘N/A’:
Not
applicable
means
that
the
rating
measure
cannot
be
applied.
The
above
rates
are
assigned
to
each
criterion
when
the
details
conditions
presented
in
Table
3.1-‐Table
3.2
are
met
for
a
given
empirical
function.
It
is
acknowledged
that
the
rating
exercise
is
prone
to
subjectivity,
and
that
interpretations
of
the
general
criteria
may
change
according
to
intended
use
and
understanding
of
the
reviewer.
33
Table
3.1.
Rating
the
overall
quality
of
existing
empirical
fragility
functions.
34
Table
3.1.
Rating
the
overall
quality
of
existing
empirical
fragility
functions
(continued…).
3.1 Application
The
rating
exercise
has
been
carried
out
by
the
authors
for
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions
found
in
the
literature
and
the
results
are
presented
in
Tables
3.3-‐3.6.
The
resulting
qualitative
scores
are
included
as
fields
in
the
compendium
of
empirical
functions
described
in
Section
4.
The
ratings
are
based
on
the
documentation
easily
available
to
the
authors
and
might
change
if
further
information
is
made
available.
Where
the
same
reference
proposes
multiple
functions,
each
is
rated
separately
in
the
compendium
with
Table
B.1
and
Table
B.2
only
presenting
a
general
overall
rating.
Examples
of
how
the
rating
system
35
is
applied
are
presented
in
detail
in
Tables
Table
3.3
to
Table
3.6
for
four
functions:
the
single
event
DPMs
of
Braga
et
al.
(1982),
the
multiple
event
fragility
curves
of
Rota
et
al
(2008b),
the
indirect
economic
vulnerability
relationship
of
Yang
et
al.
(1989),
which
are
all
for
Italian
earthquake
events,
and
the
indirect
fatality
vulnerability
functions
of
Murakami
et
al.
(1992)
for
Armenia.
Table
3.3.
Rating
for
the
damage
probability
matrices
proposed
by
Braga
et
al.
(1982).
Attribute
Criterion
Rate
Comments
Data
Quality
Data
Quantity
H
41
datasets
are
used
for
each
of
the
three
vulnerability
classes
of
structures
considered.
These
span
the
three
MSK
Intensity
levels
considered.
Constrained
M
The
13
building
classes
of
the
survey
data
are
combined
into
three
vulnerability
classes,
judged
to
show
similar
earthquake
Building
Class
response
characteristics
and
defined
to
be
consistent
with
MSK-‐76
vulnerability
classes.
Excitation
L
Macroseismic
intensity
(MSK-‐76)
is
used
as
the
IM,
which
has
an
interdependence
with
the
damage
data,
especially
as,
in
this
study,
its
values
are
determined
from
the
damage
data
directly
rather
than
from
field
observation.
Damage
H
The
surveys
are
very
detailed
and
evaluate
damage
to
both
the
vertical
and
horizontal
elements
of
the
structure.
The
surveys
Observations
are
carried
out
by
military
engineers
and
architects.
No
large
aftershocks
are
reported.
Rationality
Hindcasting
L
The
proposed
DPMs
represent
the
data
used
but
are
not
verified
with
independent
data.
Cross
validation
L
No
cross-‐validation
is
carried
out
with
other
studies.
First
principles
H
The
proposed
method
and
data
is
reproducible
and
the
results
do
not
invalidate
engineering
principles.
Treatment
of
M
Uncertainty
is
taken
into
account
to
an
extent
in
the
proposal
of
binomial
distributions
for
the
DPM
entries
and
the
provision
of
upper
uncertainty
and
lower
limits.
However,
these
limits
are
not
associated
confidence
levels.
Also
bias
in
sampling
the
municipalities
is
not
addressed.
Documentation
Documentation
H
Well-‐documented
procedure
and
data
collection
survey
method.
quality
36
Table
3.4.
Rating
for
the
fragility
curves
proposed
by
Rota
et
al.
(2008b).
Attribute
Criterion
Rate
Comments
Data
Quality
Data
Quantity
H
For
most
of
the
fragility
curves
for
the
23
building
classes
specified,
more
than
10
datasets
are
available
for
each
damage
state
curve.
However,
in
the
compendium,
an
‘M’
rating
is
given
to
the
fragility
curves
associated
with
some
of
the
building
classes
where
data
was
insufficient
for
the
definition
of
collapse
state
curves.
Constrained
H
Masonry
building
categories
account
for
structural
system,
floor
system,
presence
of
tie
rods
and
irregularities.
RC
building
Building
Class
classes
include
structural
systems,
seismic
code,
and
height
categories.
Excitation
M
PGA
is
used
as
the
main
IM
and
is
evaluated
using
a
GMPE.
Housner
Intensity
is
also
used
for
the
IM.
However,
rock
conditions
are
assumed
for
all
affected
locations.
Damage
M
The
surveys
from
the
five
Italian
earthquakes
considered
use
a
detailed
and
approximately
consistent
survey
methodology
and
Observations
damage
scale.
Where
the
damage
scale
differs,
the
original
survey
data
has
been
consulted
in
order
to
correctly
map
damage
states.
Rationality
Hindcasting
NA
The
study
results
are
not
verified
with
independent
data
but
represent
well
their
used
data.
Cross
validation
H
The
PGA-‐based
fragility
curves
are
cross-‐validated
with
the
judgement-‐based
curves
proposed
by
Giovinazzi
and
Lagomarsino
(2007).
They
do
not
show
a
good
agreement
due
to
differences
in
relationship
form,
the
use
of
macroseismic
intensity
to
PGA
conversion
by
the
latter,
etc.
First
principles
H
The
proposed
method
and
data
is
reproducible
and
the
results
do
not
invalidate
engineering
principles.
Treatment
of
L
An
inappropriate
statistical
model
is
fitted.
uncertainty
Documentation
Documentation
H
Well-‐documented
and
reproducible
procedures.
quality
37
Table
3.5.
Rating
for
the
indirect
economic
vulnerability
relationship
proposed
by
Yang
et
al.
(1989).
Attribute
Criterion
Rate
Comments
Data
Quality
Data
Quantity
H
76
datasets
are
used
which
report
damage
to
rooms
in
76
municipalities
affected
by
the
1976
Friuli,
Italy,
earthquake.
Constrained
Building
L
Rooms
are
used
rather
than
buildings
as
the
structural
unit.
The
rooms
are
grouped
by
age
of
construction;
however
all
are
built
Class
prior
to
1975
when
the
first
seismic
code
was
introduced
in
Italy.
However,
the
age
classes
are
used
to
better
estimate
the
DFs.
Excitation
L
Macroseismic
intensity
(MSK)
is
used
as
the
IM,
which
has
been
evaluated
from
field
observation.
There
are
insufficient
observations
for
intensities
VI
and
X,
for
which
data
is
extrapolated.
Loss
Observations
L
Details
of
the
survey
are
not
given
in
detail
but
a
government-‐led
reconnaissance
based
report
is
referenced.
Average
replacement
costs
for
the
rooms
are
taken
from
the
survey
report.
The
authors
estimate
the
number
of
undamaged
rooms
from
census
data
collected
in
1971.
Rationality
Hindcasting
L
The
proposed
matrix
of
average
damage
factors
when
used
by
the
authors
to
recalculate
losses
in
municipalities
does
not
give
a
good
estimate
of
the
observed
losses.
Cross
validation
L
No
cross-‐validation
is
carried
out
with
other
studies.
First
principles
H
The
proposed
procedure
does
not
violate
any
first
principles.
Treatment
of
L
Sources
of
uncertainty
in
the
damage
and
loss
data
are
not
taken
into
account
explicitly
or
quantified.
These
are
insufficient
to
uncertainty
determine
the
vulnerability
(mean
damage
factor)
values
at
MSK
intensities
VI
and
X
(the
limits
of
their
vulnerability
matrix).
Documentation
Documentation
M
Moderately
well
documented
procedure.
quality
38
Table
3.6.
Rating
for
the
indirect
economic
vulnerability
relationship
proposed
by
Murakami
et
al.
(1992).
Attribute
Criterion
Rate
Comments
Data
Quality
Data
Quantity
L
Adopts
damage
data
from
10
towns
surveyed
by
EERI
after
the
1988
Spitak,
Armenia,
earthquake.
The
town
surveys
are
associated
with
three
MSK
intensity
levels.
However,
in
the
case
of
pre-‐cast
concrete
panel
structures
and
precast
concrete
frame
structures,
only
two
observations
are
available
for
deriving
the
DPMs.
Also,
in
the
case
of
stone
masonry
and
composite
stone
masonry
buildings,
respectively
3
and
6
of
the
10
observations
have
sample
sizes
less
than
20
buildings.
The
damage
survey
concerns
only
damaged
buildings.
Constrained
Building
L
Multistorey
residential
buildings
are
used
that
belong
to
four
categories
of
construction
material.
Class
Excitation
L
Macroseismic
intensity
(MSK)
is
used
as
the
IM,
estimated
from
observed
data.
Loss
Observations
L
The
damage
surveys
are
carried
out
by
experts
following
a
sound
and
unbiased
damage
survey
method.
Occupancy
level
is
assumed
from
another
empirical
study.
Lethality
ratios
are
determined
for
the
different
building
types
from
casualty
data
collected
for
five
areas
by
another
author,
who
does
not
state
the
building
class
where
the
deaths
occurred.
Predominant
building
classes
are
assigned
to
each
area
from
background
knowledge,
in
order
to
estimate
the
lethality
ratios.
There
is
bias
in
the
collected
data
towards
damaged
buildings.
Rationality
Hindcasting
L
No
hindcasting
using
independent
data
is
available.
Cross
validation
L
No
cross-‐validation
is
carried
out
with
other
studies
First
principles
H
The
proposed
method
is
reproducible.
Treatment
of
L
Sources
of
uncertainty
in
the
damage
and
loss
data
are
not
taken
into
account
explicitly
or
quantified.
uncertainty
Documentation
Documentation
quality
H
Well
documented
procedure.
39
A
compendium
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
has
been
compiled
in
MS
Access
(2010),
wherein
each
row
of
information
is
termed
“record”
and
each
column
“field”.
For
the
constructed
compendium,
the
fields
are
classified
into
10
general
categories
as
presented
in
Table
4.1.
Each
record
provides
information
regarding
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
obtained
for
a
specified
building
class
by
an
existing
study.
Each
vulnerability
or
fragility
relationship
is
also
rated
according
to
the
rating
system
described
in
Section
3,
and
each
entry
is
accompanied
by
a
brief
commentary.
The
continuous
functions
are
all
included
in
the
compendium,
illustrated
in
the
appropriate
field
in
terms
of
their
parameters
(see
Table
4.2)
and/or
shape
(see
Figure
4.1).
With
respect
to
the
discrete
functions,
only
those
providing
values
of
the
levels
of
loss
or
damage
corresponding
to
two
levels
of
intensity
or
more
are
included
in
the
compendium.
In
the
case
of
indirect
vulnerability
functions,
only
those
that
adopt
empirically
constructed
fragility
functions
are
included
in
the
compendium,
irrespective
of
the
nature
of
the
damage-‐to-‐loss
functions
used.
The
latter
damage-‐to-‐
loss
functions
are
also
reported
in
the
compendium.
40
Table
4.1.
Basic
information
provided
in
the
compendium
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions.
General
category
Field
Description
Properties
Example
Existing
Study
PText
Karababa
and
Reference
Reference
based
on
the
author-‐date
reference
system
used
by
GEM.
Pomonis
(2010)
Type
of
assessment
Type
of
assessment
followed
by
study,
e.g.
fragility,
direct
or
indirect
vulnerability.
PText
Fragility
Damage
and
Loss
measures
Damage
scale
The
main
damage
scale
adopted
by
the
study.
PText
EMS-‐98
No
of
DS
Number
of
damage
states
used
by
the
main
damage
scale.
Number
6
Other
DS?
Did
the
study
adopt
more
damage
scales?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
No
Other
DS
The
alternative
damage
scales
used
by
the
examined
study.
PText
No
of
other
DS
Number
of
damage
states
used
by
the
alternative
damage
scale.
Number
Definition
of
the
loss
adopted
by
a
vulnerability
assessment
study,
e.g.
fatality
PText
Loss
Parameter
rate.
Building
Classification
GEM
Building
Class
The
building
class
according
to
GEM
taxonomy
system.
PText
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
construction
material
of
the
buildings?
Y-‐N
Construction
material?
Y
(Yes-‐No)
Structural
System?
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
structural
system?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
Y
Age?
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
age?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
N
Height?
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
design
code?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
Y
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
construction
material
of
the
buildings?
Y-‐N
Design
Code?
Y
(Yes-‐No)
Irregularity?
Does
the
building
class
account
for
the
irregularity?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
N
Vertical
Material
The
material
of
the
vertical
structure
of
a
building
class,
e.g.
RC,
M.
Ptext
RC
Infill?
Do
the
buildings
of
each
class
have
infill
walls?
(Yes-‐No-‐Unknown)
Y-‐N-‐NA
Yes
PText
Hollow
clay
Infill
Material
Material
of
the
infill
walls,
RC.
masonry
Structural
System
Description
of
the
structural
system.
PText
Non-‐ductile
frames
Horizontal
Material
The
material
of
the
horizontal
structure
of
a
building
class.
PText
RC
Flooring
system
The
structural
system
of
the
floors,
e.g.
rigid,
flexible.
PText
Irregularity
Horizontal
or
vertical
irregularity
of
the
building
class,
e.g.
PYLOTIS.
PText*
GEM
Height
General
description
of
the
height
of
a
building
class,
e.g.
low-‐rise.
PText
Low-‐Rise
Max
No
of
storeys
Maximum
number
of
storeys
of
the
examined
building
class,
e.g.
4
storeys.
Number
4
41
Table
4.1.
Basic
information
provided
in
the
compendium
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
(continued).
General
category
Field
Description
Properties
Example
Building
Classification
Occupancy
Use
of
the
buildings
PText
Ground
Motion
PText
Type
of
IM
Type
of
IMs,
e.g.
macroseismic
intensity
(MI),
ground
motion
parameters
(GMP).
MI
Intensity
IM
The
main
ground
motion
intensity
measure
used
by
each
study,
e.g.
PGA.
PText
PSI
Range
of
IM
Range
of
IM
values
of
the
data,
e.g.
0g-‐1g.
FText
Main
IM
Estimation
Method
The
main
way
of
determining
the
levels
of
IM,
e.g.
observed
data.
Other
Methods
IM?
Did
the
study
adopt
alternative
ways
to
determine
levels
of
IM?
Y-‐N
Other
Methods
IM
Alternative
methods
used
to
estimate
levels
of
IM,
e.g.
recorded
ground
motions.
PText
GMPE_TE
The
ground
motion
prediction
equation
and
or
transformation
equation
used.
PText*
Other
IM?
Did
the
study
adopt
alternative
intensity
measures?
(Yes-‐No)
Y-‐N
No
Other
IM_1(-‐N)
Alternative
IM
adopted
by
a
study,
e.g.
Arias
Intensity.
PText
Other
Methods_IM_1(-‐N)
Methods
used
to
estimate
the
level
of
the
alternative
IM.
PText
Other
GMPE_TE_1(-‐N)
The
equation
that
has
been
used
to
estimate
the
IM
(if
available).
PText
Damage-‐to-‐Loss
Source
of
D-‐L
Relationship
The
methodology
used
to
obtain
these
functions,
e.g.
empirical,
expert
PText
functions
judgement.
D-‐L
Relationship
The
D-‐L
Relationship,
e.g.
parameters,
shape
of
the
probability
distribution
of
loss
File.xcl
for
each
damage
state.
D-‐L
Uncertainty
Whether
deterministic
D_L
function,
or
whether
the
aleatory
and/or
epistemic
PText
uncertainty
are
taken
into
account
Data
quality/quantity
Country/ies
Name
of
the
country
of
each
database
used,
e.g.
Greece.
PText
Greece
(used
for
the
Source
Source/s
of
data,
e.g.
1973
San
Fernando
database.
PText*
2003
Leukada
construction
of
Mechanism
The
focal
mechanism
of
each
event.
PText
Strike-‐slip
vulnerability
or
fragility
Depth
The
focal
depth
of
each
event,
e.g.
15km.
Number
12km
functions)
No
Event
Number
of
events,
e.g.
single
event.
FText
Single
No
Assets
Number
of
suitable
assets
(e.g.
buildings,
casualties)
used
for
the
construction
of
Number
3079
the
examined
relationship,
e.g.
1000
buildings.
Non-‐sampling
Errors?
Is
the
damage/loss
databases
contaminated
with
non-‐sampling
errors?
(Yes-‐No-‐ Y-‐N-‐NA
Yes
NA(Unknown))
Non-‐sampling
errors
The
non-‐sampling
errors
PTest
Addressed
non-‐sampling
The
errors
which
were
addressed
by
the
use
of
a
rigorous
procedure.
PTest
errors
Isoseismic
Unit
The
isoseismic
units
adopted
for
the
regression,
e.g.
municipality.
PTest
District
No
of
Data
Points
Number
of
data
points
used
for
the
construction
of
the
regression
analysis,
e.g.
10
Number
33
data
points.
42
Table
4.1.
Basic
information
provided
in
the
compendium
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
(continued).
43
Val.
Existing
study
The
existing
study
adopted
for
the
validation.
PText
M
Table
4.1.
Basic
information
provided
in
the
compendium
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
(continued).
General
category
Field
Description
Properties
Example
Ranking
system
Data
Quantity
PText
H
Constrained
Categories
PText
L
Excitation
PText
H
Loss
Observations
PText
H
Representativeness
PText
M
Check
section
3.1
for
definition.
Hind
Casting
PText
H
Cross
Validation
PText
L
First
Principles
PText
L
Documentation
Quality
PText
H
Overall
Rating
Score
PText
General
Comments
General
Comments
General
comments
regarding
the
ranking
of
the
examined
FText
Well
reported
survey.
Survey
focussed
study.
on
damaged
structures,
undamaged
determined
from
2000
census.
Damage
data
contains
buildings
damaged
from
a
major
aftershock
as
well
as
the
mainshock.
Constant
standard
deviation
assumed
for
all
fragility
curves
and
mean
regressed
for.
Curves
for
high
damage
states
(D4
and
D5),
“borrowed”
from
Coburn
and
Spence
(2002),
where
no/insufficient
statistics
to
construct
curve.
Curves
adopt
PSI
as
IM
and
are
compared
to
curves
by
Coburn
and
Spence
(2002).
No
measurement
error
accounted
for
in
IM
or
loss
values.
No
confidence
or
prediction
intervals
defined.
Notation
PText:
Text
with
predefined
options.
PText*
Text
with
predefined
options,
which
allows
for
multiple
entries.
N-‐Y(-‐NA):
Yes-‐No(-‐Unknown)
options.
FText:
Free
text.
_1(-‐N):
This
implies
that
N
fields
are
included
which
account
for
the
alternative
IM
measures.
44
Table
4.2.
Parameters
of
the
fragility
curves
(mean
μ
and
standard
deviation
σ)
Fragility Curve constructed
by
Karababa
and
Pomonis
(2010).
1.0
DS
Μ
σ
ds1
7.2
2.5
ds2
9.9
2.5
P(DS≥dsi|PSI)
0.0
0 5 10 15 20
PSI
Figure
4.1.
Fragility
curves
constructed
by
Karababa
and
Pomonis
(2010).
45
4.2 Global Coverage of Existing Empirical Vulnerability and Fragility Functions
The
compendium
includes
existing
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions,
which
provide
loss
or
damage
for
at
least
two
intensity
measure
levels.
The
compendium
contains
245
empirical
functions
(see
Appendix
A).
Fragility
functions
constitute
approximately
80%
of
these
functions.
Of
the
included
55
empirical
vulnerability
functions,
65%
are
obtained
directly
from
loss
data.
80%
of
the
reviewed
existing
vulnerability
functions
express
loss
as
the
economic
loss
due
to
direct
damage
sustained
by
affected
buildings,
whilst
the
remaining
20%
as
casualties
in
both
cases
using
varying
definitions
of
loss.
There
is
a
single
function
that
correlated
the
downtime
with
a
single
level
of
ground
motion
intensity
and
for
this
reason,
it
is
not
included
in
the
compendium.
Vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
have
been
constructed
for
only
a
few
seismic-‐prone
countries
as
depicted
in
Figure
4.2.
In
particular,
Figure
4.2a
shows
that
vulnerability
functions
have
been
constructed
mainly
from
data
from
earthquakes
in
the
USA
or
by
combining
data
worldwide.
A
very
different
picture
is
presented
in
Figure
4.2b
for
fragility
functions,
which
have
mainly
been
developed
from
data
obtained
from
events
in
Southern
Europe
and
Japan.
The
fragility
curves
have
overwhelmingly
been
constructed
for
building
classes
defined
predominantly
via
construction
material,
followed
by
structural
system
(which
in
some
cases
includes
structural
irregularities),
and
height,
in
line
with
the
first
layer
taxonomy
used
in
the
GEM
project.
With
regard
to
construction
material,
more
than
half
of
the
fragility
functions
included
in
the
compendium
correspond
to
reinforced
concrete
(RC)
or
masonry
buildings.
By
contrast,
the
distribution
of
the
construction
material
is
approximately
uniform
for
the
vulnerability
functions.
Iceland
Greece Greece
Mexico USA Worldwide
Italy
Worldwide
Montenegro Armenia Taiwan
Japan Iran Italy
Armenia
Japan
USA
New Zealand
Turkey
Mexico
Spain
Montenegro
a) Vulnerability functions Europe b) Fragility functions
Figure
4.2.
Distribution
of
reviewed
a)
vulnerability
and
b)
fragility
functions
according
to
the
country/countries
of
data
origin.
46
Undefined Abode
MIxed
Masonry Multiple
Undefined
Multiple Masonry
Wood
Mixed
RC
Steel
Wood
Steel RC
Figure
4.3.
Frequency
of
construction
material
used
in
the
reviewed
a)
vulnerability
and
b)
fragility
functions.
Most
(over
60%)
of
the
reviewed
vulnerability
functions
have
been
based
on
multiple
databases
as
depicted
in
Figure
4.4a.
By
contrast,
most
empirical
fragility
functions
are
based
on
data
from
a
single
earthquake,
as
depicted
in
Figure
4.3b.
As
mentioned
in
Section
2.6,
single
event
damage/loss
data
often
covers
a
small
range
of
IM
levels
and
typically
contains
few
observations
for
high
levels
of
loss
or
damage.
2 2 3
47
MSK MMSK
M,R MMI
OTHER OTHER
Sa M
PSI
Housner
PGA AI
Sd JMA
4.3 Harmonisation of Damage and Intensity Measures for Comparison of Existing Functions
Comparison
of
existing
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
may
be
desirable
for
validation
purposes,
sensitivity
checking
or
to
help
choose
a
relationship
for
use
in
seismic
risk
assessment.
This
is
straightforward
if
two
functions
for
identical
building
classes
exist
with
the
same
IM
and
loss
parameter/damage
scale.
However,
this
is
not
usual,
as
multiple
taxonomies
are
seen
to
exist
in
the
empirical
functions
even
for
the
same
geographic
area.
Structures
of
different
heights,
seismic
codes,
materials,
and
lateral
load
resisting
systems
can
be
grouped
in
different
ways,
and
their
damage
expressed
through
different
damage
scales.
Casualties,
downtime,
and
cost
can
also
be
defined
in
different
ways.
This
makes
it
difficult
to
compare
existing
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions.
The
same
differences
can
also
be
seen
in
the
data
itself,
when
collected
by
different
authorities
or
for
different
earthquakes.
This
hinders
data
comparison
and
combination
(e.g.
for
the
development
of
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions
from
multiple
events).
Vulnerability
or
fragility
functions
are
also
seen
to
vary
in
terms
of
intensity
measure
(IM)
used,
which
again
hinders
comparison
of
existing
functions.
Converting
or
mapping
of
damage
states
and
intensity
measures
will
introduce
large
uncertainties
(e.g.
see
Hill,
2011)
and
is
not
recommended
for
quantitative
comparisons.
However,
for
qualitative
comparisons,
the
damage
state
conversion
tables
proposed
in
Rossetto
et
al
(2013)
and
IM
conversions
suggested
by
Cua
et
al
(2010)
could
be
used.
In
Section
3,
a
new
rating
system
is
proposed
for
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
relationships.
The
summary
results
of
the
application
of
this
rating
system
to
the
relationships
present
in
the
compendium
are
presented
in
Appendix
B.
From
Table
B.1
and
Table
B.2,
it
is
evident
that
no
fragility
or
vulnerability
relationship
obtains
a
“High”
rating
in
all
criteria.
The
rating
exercise
highlights
the
profusion
of
data
quality
and
quantity
issues
(discussed
in
Sections
2.2
and
2.4)
in
existing
empirical
studies.
It
is
also
clear
that
data
quantity
alone
cannot
be
taken
as
a
measure
of
relationship
reliability,
as
some
vulnerability
or
fragility
48
functions
that
rate
highly
for
data
quantity
may
not
have
good
ratings
in
constrained
categories
and
excitation
parameters/observations
(e.g.
Yang
et
al.
1992),
which
counterbalance
the
advantages
posed
by
large
quantities
of
data.
It
is
a
real
concern
that
there
is
a
failure
in
most
existing
functions
to
appropriately
treat
uncertainty.
Very
few
studies
are
also
seen
to
cross-‐validate
their
proposed
functions
with
the
results
of
other
studies,
and
fewer
still
compare
their
functions
with
independent
data.
Difficulties
were
experienced
by
the
authors
in
carrying
out
the
rating
exercise
caused
by
poor
documentation
regarding
the
survey
data,
almost
universal
lack
of
explanation
of
the
rationale
for
selection
of
survey
sites,
unclear
definition
of
parameters
used,
and
lack
of
detail
on
the
exact
methodology
followed
for
manipulation,
combining
data
and
generating
the
relationship.
It
is
recommended
that
all
these
observations
be
taken
into
account
in
the
development
of
the
GEM
VEM
guidelines
for
empirical
vulnerability
functions.
5 Final
Comments
This
report
provides
an
overview
of
the
state
of
art
in
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
relationships,
and
presents
a
database
of
all
existing
such
functions
found
by
the
authors
in
the
literature.
A
rating
system
is
also
proposed
that
can
be
used
to
qualitatively
assess
which
empirical
fragility
or
vulnerability
functions
are
most
reliable
for
use
in
future
seismic
risk
assessments.
Overall,
it
is
noted
that
a
number
of
authors
have
developed
empirical
seismic
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions
but
that
the
quality
and
geographic
scope
of
these
functions
vary.
Existing
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions
are
seen
to
typically
be
based
on
databases
associated
with
important
quality
issues,
which
include
low
levels
of
refinements
on
the
building
class,
damage
states,
and
often
substantial
non-‐
sampling
errors.
Paucity
of
observations
at
high
shaking
intensities
and
damage
states
is
common
and
very
few
detailed
loss
databases
are
available
for
direct
vulnerability
evaluation.
There
is
no
consensus
in
the
literature
concerning
the
functional
form
of
empirical
vulnerability
and
fragility
functions
or
on
best-‐practice
methodologies
for
the
treatment
of
the
non-‐sampling
and
sampling
errors.
Instead,
a
variety
of
methods
for
manipulating,
combining
data,
and
curve-‐fitting
procedures
has
been
noted.
Finally,
existing
studies
are
severely
limited
in
their
modelling
and
communication
of
uncertainty
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
assessment.
These
observations
highlight
the
need
for
improved
protocols
for
the
collection
of
loss
and
damage
data
in
post-‐earthquake
scenarios,
in
order
to
provide
a
sound
base
for
the
derivation
of
future
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability
functions.
There
is
also
an
urgent
need
for
a
rational,
statistically
correct,
widely
accepted
approach
to
be
developed
for
the
construction
of
empirical
fragility
and
vulnerability,
which
explicitly
quantifies
and
models
the
uncertainty
in
the
data
and
clearly
communicates
the
uncertainty
in
the
vulnerability
or
fragility
functions.
To
provide
such
guidance
is
the
aim
of
the
GEM
vulnerability
estimation
methods
working
group.
49
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I
Quality
of
Surveys
Source
The
name
of
the
event
on
which
the
dataset
is
based.
C:
Census.
FS:
Field
Study
data.
Completeness:
A
database
is
Y:
The
survey
is
complete.
complete
if
all
the
buildings
in
an
N:
Only
some
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from
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isoseismic
unit
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been
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isoseismic
unit
has
been
surveyed.
N*:
A
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is
used
to
estimate
the
number
of
undamaged
buildings.
N**:
High
levels
of
completeness
have
been
considered.
-‐:
The
level
of
completeness
is
not
available.
Other
biases
B1:
Damaged
buildings
from
aftershocks
or
other
main
events
are
included.
B2:
Burnt
buildings
have
been
included
in
the
database.
B3:
Buildings
damaged
by
liquefaction
have
been
included
in
the
database.
B4:
Size
of
building
stock
estimated
from
projecting
the
size
of
population.
B5:
The
Census
and
field
surveys
used
different
structural
units.
B6:
Errors
in
compilation
of
the
survey
forms.
B7:
Data
from
tsunami
included.
B8:
Damage
was
not
concentrated
in
the
vertical
elements.
Undamaged
buildings
>10
storeys.
The
weakest
storey
according
to
the
method
was
not
the
most
damaged.
B9:
The
exposed
population
has
been
estimated.
B10:
Misclassification
error
due
to
remote
sensing
data.
-‐:
Biases
are
not
mentioned.
Building
classification
Structural
Unit
B:
Building.
A:
Apartment.
R:
Room.
S:
Structural
elements.
II
III
LN_CDF:
Lognormal
Cumulative
Distribution
Function, Φ⎛⎜ ln(im ) − λ ⎞⎟ ,
λ
and
ζ
the
log
mean
and
log
standard
⎜ ζ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
deviation.
MLP:
Multi-‐Linear
Piecewise
Curve.
ModBe:
Modified
Beta
distribution.
ModBi:
Modified
Binomial
distribution.
Structural
system
Age/Design
code
Structural
unit
Isoseismic
Unit
Country(ies)
of
Completeness
No
of
events
Other
biases
Sample
size
data
origin
Reference
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Whitman
et
al
USA
-‐
S
1973
San-‐Fernando
-‐
-‐
B
High-‐rise
RC
(-‐’33;
47’-‐)
A
MMI
(1973)
Medium-‐rise
RC
(-‐’47)
High-‐rise
S
(-‐’33;
47’-‐)
Medium-‐rise
S
(-‐’47)
Scholl
et
al
Worldwide
5,676
M
FS
-‐
-‐
B
High
rise
RC
A
EI
MMI
(1982)
High-‐rise
S
Yang
et
al
IT
-‐
S
1979
Friuli,1981C
N*
-‐
R
Rooms
built
-‐’45
79
M
MSK
(1989)
’46-‐‘60
’61-‐‘75
Gűlkan
et
al
TR
30,000
M
FS
-‐
-‐
B
Brick
M
A
MSK
(1992)
Wood
RC
Stone
M
Adobe
Dolce
et
al
IT
4,745
S
1998
Umbria-‐Marche
-‐
-‐
B
M
5
M
MCS
(1998)
Eleftheriadou
GR
73,468
S
1999
Athens,2001C
N*
B6
B
Non-‐ductile
MRFs,
dual
frames
or
mixed
117
M
MMI
and
masonry
and
RC
load
bearing
Karampinis
systEMS-‐98
(’59-‐’85;‘85-‐’95;’95)
(2008)
M
with
RC,
S
,
W
floors
Braga
et
al
IT
29,157
S
1980
Irpinia
Y
-‐
B
A,B,C
(MSK)
41
M
MSK
(1982)
Sabetta
et
al
IT
47,677
2
1980
Irpinia
-‐
-‐
B
A,
B,
C
(MSK)
68
M
PGA
EPA,
(1998)
1984
Abruzzo
AI
Di
Pasquale
et
IT
50,000
M*
FS,
1991C
-‐
-‐
A
A,
B,
C1,
C2
(MSK)
(>41)M
MCS
al
(2005)
Roca
et
al
ES
29,157
S
1980
Irpinia
Y
-‐
B
A,
B,
C1,
C2
(MSK)
41
M
EMS-‐
(2006)
98
Thiel
and
Mainly
10,971
M**
FS
-‐
-‐
B
URM
(mainly)
A
MMI
Zsutty
(1987)
USA
Wood
Adobe
RC
Şengezer
and
TR
9,366
3
1992
Erpizan
-‐
-‐
B
RC
-‐
MSK
Structural
system
Age/Design
code
Structural
unit
Isoseismic
Unit
Country(ies)
of
Completeness
No
of
events
Other
biases
Sample
size
data
origin
Reference
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Murakami
(1992)
AM
2,175
S
1988
Spitak
N
-‐
A
9
storey
precast
RC
10T
MSK
B
4-‐5
storey
composite
stone
1-‐5
storey
stone
URM
1-‐2
storey
stone
URM
Spence
and
So
Worldwide
53,446
M
Wordwide
-‐
B
A-‐E
according
to
EMS98
5
IC
MMI
(2008)
Pomonis
et
al
GR
2,950
S
1986
Kalamata
Incomplete
B
Masonry
7
Iso-‐seis-‐ MMI
(2011)
Mixed
Masonry
mal
Areas
Frolova
et
al
(2011)
Russian,
Uzbekistan,
-‐
M
-‐
B
A,B,C,D,E7-‐9
-‐
MMSK-‐
Turkmenistan
86
Romania,
Moldova,
Armenia,
Georgia
Table
A.4.
Main
characteristics
of
existing
indirect
methodologies
developed
for
the
construction
of
vulnerability
functions.
Vulnerability
Confidence
Reference
Analysis
Source
curves
Form
Yang
et
al
(1989)
CFS
BE
FD
for
a
room
DF
(dependent
on
class)
-‐
TR_N_PDF,
Eq.(A.9),
Eq.(
Spence
et
al
(2003)
CFS
BE
FD+
Insurance
Data
DF
(dependent
on
class)
-‐
D
(
expected
scenario
loss
E(L|
sites)
Spence
et
al
(2008)
CFS
Discrete
Martin
Centre
Death
rate,
injury
rate
-‐
Discrete
Frolova
et
al
(2011)
CFS
Discrete
Observed
data
Fatality
rate
-‐
Discrete
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis
CFS
BE
EJ
DF
(independent
of
class)
-‐
MLP
(E(L/IM)
vs
IM)
(2011)
Structural
system
Age/Design
code
Structural
unit
Isoseismic
Unit
Country(ies)
of
Completeness
No
of
events
Other biases
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Scholl
(1974)
USA
1,043
S
1972
San-‐Fernando
-‐
-‐
S
>80%
low
rise
wood
frames
>40
years
old
2
S
Sa
RGM
2
Petrovski
and
MX
2,100
S
1985
Mexico
City
-‐
-‐
B
5
ranges
according
to
fundamental
periods
44
S
Sa
RGM
and
3
MIlutovic
Soil
(1990)
conditions
Benedetti
et
al
IT
500
S
1979
Friuli
-‐
-‐
B
Masonry
details
accounted
M
MSK
Observed
5
(1988)
for
by
the
vulnerability
index
(VI)
data
Structural
system
Country/Countrie
Age/Design code
Isoseismic
Unit
Structural
unit
s
of
data
origin
Completeness
Other
biases
Reference
surveyed
buildings
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Jara
et
al
(1992)
MX
429/200
S
1985
Mexico
City
FS
-‐
B8
B
RC
up
to
13
storeys.
1
Area
k
Surveyed
subdivided
into
buildings
2
zones
drawings
Spence
et
al
(1992)
Worldwide
70,000
M
Martin
Centre
-‐
-‐
B
Brick
with
ringbeam
or
diaphragm
-‐
Ψ
MSK
Observed
(13)
FS
Unreinforced
brick
M
data
Non-‐ductile
RC
frame
Rubble
stone
M
Adobe
Concrete
block
M
Dressed
stone
M
Reinforced
unit
M
Orsini
(1999)
IT
53,774
S
1980
Irpinia
FS
Y
B6
A
A,
B,
C1,
C2
(MSK)
41
M
Ψ
-‐
Observed
data
Karababa
and
Pomonis
GR
43,353
S
2003
Leukada
N*
B1
B
Low-‐rise
with:
3-‐33
D
Ψ
-‐
Interpretation
(2010)
FS,2001C
RC
non-‐ductile
frame
infill
(no
code;
code
of
URM
1959;code
1984;
>’95)
damage
Stone
M
with
lime
mortar,
W
floors
(nocode,’19-‐ statistics
’45,
46-‐’60,
>’60)
Post
beam,
W
floors
European
style
wood
frames,
W
floors
Non-‐ductile
stone
of
brick
M
and
RC
bearing
system,
RC
or
W
floors
(no
code;
>’60
)
Miyakoshi
et
al
(1998)
JNP
-‐
S
1995
Kobe
-‐
B2
B
Wood
frame
(-‐’50;’51-‐‘60;’61-‐’70;’71-‐’80;’81-‐‘94)
GBB
PGV
-‐
RGM,
FS1
RC
(-‐’71;’72-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
overturned
S
(-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
tombstones,
Light
Gauge
S
observed
data
Yamaguchi
and
JPN
96,261
S
1995
Kobe
-‐
-‐
B
Low-‐rise
wood
frames
GBB
PGV
Sa,JMA
RGM,
Yamazaki
FS2
observed
data
(2000)
Yamazaki
and
Murao
JPN
30,544
S
1995
Kobe
-‐
B3
B
Wood
frame
(-‐’51;’52-‐‘61;’62-‐’71;’72-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
GBB
PGV
RGM,
(2000)
FS3
RC
(>’71;’72-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
observed
data
S
(’71;’72-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
Light
Gauge
S
(’71;’72-‐’81;’82-‐‘94)
Yamaguchi
and
JPN
346,078
S
1995
Kobe
-‐
-‐
B
Low-‐rise
residential
wood
frames
GBB
PGV
Sa,JMA
RGM,
Yamazaki
FS4
observed
data
(2000)
Sabetta
et
al
(1998)
IT
47,677
2
1980
Irpinia
N**
-‐
B
A,
B,
C
(MSK)
68
M
PGA
-‐
GMPE
1984
Abruzzo
Sarabandi
et
al
(2004)
USA,
83
2
1994
Northridge
-‐
B5
B
C1,C2
30
S
Sd
MMI,
Sa,
RGM
TWN
1999
Chi-‐Chi
(<1000
ft
from
a
PGA,
PGV
station)
etc
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
Europe*
340,000
M
European
events
-‐
-‐
B
RC
99
S
Sd
Sa,Sdinelastic,
RGM,
GMPE
(2003)
(19)
mainly
PGA,
Amiri
et
al
(2007)
IR
686,548
3
2003
Bam
-‐
-‐
B
Adobe
13S
Sa
PGA
RGM,
GMPE
1997
Ghaen
M
1990
Manjil
W
RC
Source
of
IM
No
of
events
Other biases
Structural sy
Isoseismic
U
Structural
u
Completene
Sample
size
Age/Design
Reference
surveyed
buildings
No
of
DS
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
IT
113,262/
M
1980
Irpinia
N*
B6
B
Low-‐rise
M
M
Sd
GMPE
4
96,282
1990
Sicily
B5
Mid-‐rise
M
1997
Umbria-‐Marche
Low-‐rise
RC
1998
Umbria
Mid-‐rise
RC
1998
Pollino
2002
Molise,
1991C
Rota
et
al
(2008bb)
IT
163,000/
M
1980
Irpinia
N**
B6
B
Mixed
1–2
M
grouped
in
10
PGA
HI
GMPE
5
91,394
1984
Abbruzzo
Mixed
X3
PGA
ranges
1997
Umbria-‐Marche
Reinforced
concrete—seismic
design
1–3
1998
Pollino
Reinforced
concrete—no
seismic
design
1–3
2002
Molise
Reinforced
concrete—seismic
design
≥4
Reinforced
concrete—no
seismic
design
≥4
Masonry—irregular
layout—flexible
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—irregular
layout—flexible
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—irregular
layout—rigid
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—irregular
layout—rigid
floors-‐w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—irregular
layout—flexible
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—irregular
layout—flexible
floors
–w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—irregular
layout—rigid
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—irregular
layout—rigid
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—regular
layout—flexible
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—regular
layout—flexible
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—regular
layout—rigid
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—regular
layout—rigid
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
1–2
Masonry—regular
layout—flexible
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—regular
layout—flexible
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—regular
layout—rigid
floors—with
tie
rods
or
tie
beams
≥3
Masonry—regular
layout—rigid
floors—w/o
tie
rods
and
tie
beams
≥3
Steel
All
Liel
and
Lynch
(2009)
IT
483
S
2009
L’
Aquila
N
-‐
B
RC
buildings
(mainly
frames
of
various
heights)
4
areas
of
1
M,
PGA
5
each
building
had
different
IM
Spence
et
al
(2011)
Wordwide
40,000
M
Martin
Centre
-‐
-‐
B
Brick
and
block
masonry
without
an
RC
slab
4
isoseismal
MMI
6
areas
Hancilar
et
al.
(2011)
HT
240,672
2
Remote
Sensing,
Field
B10
B
No
classification,
15
PGA
MMI
ShakeMap
6
data
1-‐2
storey
simple
RC
frames,
municipalities
PGV
3-‐5
storey
simple
RC
frames,
Structural
system
Age/Design
code
Country/Countri
Structural
unit
s
of
data
origin
Isoseismic
Unit
Completeness
No
of
events
Other
biases
Sample
size
Reference
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Scholl
(1974)
USA
205
S
FS
-‐
-‐
B
>80%
low
rise
wood
frames
>40
years
2
S
Average
Sa
old
between
T=0.05
and
0.2s
Swathorn
(1981)
JNP
S
FS
-‐
-‐
B
Low-‐rise
residential
wood
frames
Sa
Steinbrugge
(1982)
USA
-‐
M
Insurance
claims
-‐
-‐
B
Wood
frame-‐small,
family
dwellings
4C
MMI
Repair
cost
ove
mostly
Wood-‐frame
large
All
Metal
–small
All
Metal-‐large
Steel
frame-‐earthquake
resistive
Steel-‐frame
ordinary
Steel
frame-‐other
RC-‐earthquake
resistive
RC-‐ordinary
RC-‐precast
RC-‐other
Mixed
construction-‐earthquake
resistive
Mixed
construction-‐ordinary
resistive
Mixed
construction-‐ordinary
non-‐
resistive
Mixed
construction-‐hollow
masonry,
adobe
Petrovski
et
al
(1984)
ME
105
S
-‐
-‐
-‐
B
Strengthened
masonry
7
Co,700
Se
equivalent
repair
and
stren
RC
frames
PGA
cost
of
new
co
Dowrick
and
Rhoades
(1990)
NZ
3131
S
1987
Edgecumbe
Y
B
Houses
3
isoseismal
MMI
Indemnity
co
units
property/In
Thráinsson
(1992)
IS
-‐
2
1934
and
1976
-‐
-‐
B
Low-‐rise
wooden
frames
V
MMI
earthquakes
Unreinforced
concrete
shear
walls
Thráinsson
and
Sigbjörnsson
IS
-‐
2
1934
and
1976
-‐
-‐
B
Unreinforced
concrete
shear
walls
V
M,
R
(1994)
earthquakes
Cochrane
and
Schaad
(1992)
W
-‐
M
Swiss-‐Re
data
-‐
-‐
B
Wood
frame
with
lights
exterior
wall
-‐
MMI
finish
Wood
frame
with
brick
veneer
finish
Steel
frame
with
steel
bracing
or
RC
shear
walls
or
with
light
cladding
Steel
frame
w/o
steel
bracing
or
shear
walls
and
with
non-‐load
bearing
walls
of
RC,
brick,
glass
etc
RC
frame
with
RC
or
M
shear
walls
RC
frame
w/o
shear
walls
but
with
load
or
non-‐load
bearing
walls
of
precast
concrete,
brick,
glass
etc
Precast
RC
frame
with
lift
slab
buildings
with
or
w/o
shear
walls
Precast
RC
tilt
up,
reinforced
masonry
or
reinforced
hollow
clock
bearing
(or
non
bearing
with
plaster)
Unreinforced
hollow
block
bearing
walls
Unreinforced
masonry
of
block
bearing
Source
of
statistics
Quality
of
Surveys
Building
classification
Intensity
Measure
Structural
system
Country/Countrie
Age/Design
code
Structural
unit
s
of
data
origin
Isoseismic
Unit
Completeness
No
of
events
Other
biases
Sample
size
Reference
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Comerio
(2006)
USA
~
440,000
S
1994
Northridge
-‐
-‐
B
Single
family
buildings,
mobile
homes
Downtime
in
400
1989
Loma
Pieta
,
multi-‐family
buildings
from
the
time
o
completio
Table
A.9.
Main
characteristics
of
existing
direct
methodologies
developed
for
the
construction
of
vulnerability
functions
(fatalities).
Source
of
statistics
Quality
of
Surveys
Building
Intensity
Measure
Loss
Classification
Structural
system
Country/Countrie
Age/Design
code
Structural
unit
s
of
data
origin
Isoseismic
Unit
Completeness
No
of
events
Other
biases
Reference
Sample size
Definition
Material
Source
Height
Other
Main
Samardjieva
and
Badal
(2002)
Worldwide
-‐
M
1900-‐1950
B9
-‐
IC
M,
MSK
Casualty
counts
1950-‐1999
Nichols
and
Beavers
(2003)
Worldwide
M
-‐
M
Casualty
counts
So
and
Spence
(2008)
Worldwide
-‐
M
IC
MMI
%
of
injured,
died
in
buildin
Jaiswal
et
al
(2009)
Worldwide
-‐
M
Past
surveys
from
1973
-‐
IC
MMI
FR
XI
Documentation
Cross
validation
First
Principles
Constrained
Observations
Data
quantity
Damage/Loss
observations
Excitation
Hindcasting
uncertainty
categories
quality
Treat
Direct
Vulnerability
Functions
for
Economic
Loss
Scholl
(1974)
H
M
H
H
L
L
H
L
M
Scawthorn
et
al
(1981)
H
M
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Steinbrugge
(1982)
M
M
L
M
L
L
H
L
L
Petrovski
et
al
(1984)
H
L
L
M
L
L
H
L
L
Dowrick
and
Rhoades
(1990)
H
L
L
H
L
L
H
M
M
Thráinsson
(1992)
M
H
L
L
L
H
H
L
L
Thráinsson
and
Sigbjörnsson
(1994)
M
H
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Cochrane
and
Schaad
(1992)
M
M
M
L
L
L
H
L
L
Wesson
et
al
(2004)
H
M
M
H
L
L
H
H
H
Vulnerability
Functions
for
Casualty
Murakami
et
al.
(1992)
H
M
L
L
L
L
H
L
M
Samardjieva
and
Badal
(2002)
H
L
L
L
L
L
H
M
M
Nichols
and
Beavers
(2003)
H
H
L
H
L
L
H
M
M
So
and
Spence
(2008)
H
H
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Jaiswal
and
Wald
(2010)
H
H
L
M
L
L
H
M
M
Frolova
et
al.
(2011)
H
L
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Vulnerability
Functions
for
Downtime
Comerio
(2006)*
M
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Indirect
Vulnerability
Functions
for
Economic
Loss
Yang
et
al
(1989)
H
L
L
L
L
L
H
M
M
Jara
et
al.
(1992)
M
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
L
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis
(2011)
H
L-‐M
L
L
L
H
H
L
H
*It
is
extremely
difficult
to
rate
this
function
due
to
the
lack
of
information
provided
XII
Documentation
Cross
validation
First
Principles
Constrained
Data
quantity
Observations
observations
Excitation
Hindcasting
uncertainty
categories
quality
Treat
Loss
DPMs
Whitman
et
al
(1973)
M
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
H
Scholl
et
al
(1982)
L-‐H
L
M
M
L
L
H
L
H
Gűlkan
et
al
(1992)
M
L-‐M
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Spence
et
al
(2003)
M
H
L
M
M
L
H
L
H
Goretti
and
Di
Pasquale
(2004)
H-‐M
M
L
H
L
L
H
H
H
Eleftheriadou
and
Karabinis
(2011)
H
L-‐M
L
H
L
M
H
L
H
Braga
et
al
(1982)
H
M
L
H
L
L
H
H
H
Sabetta
et
al
(1998)
H
M
M
H
L
L
H
L
H
Di
Pasquale
et
al
(2005)
H
L-‐M
L
L
L
L
H
L
H
Roca
et
al
(2006)
H
M
L
H
L
L
H
L
M
Şengezer
and
Ansal
(2007)
H
M
L
M
L
L
M
M
M
Spence
and
So
(2008)
M
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
H
Murakami
(1992)
M
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
M
Fragility
curves
Jara
et
al
(1992)
M
H
L
H
L
L
H
L
M
Spence
et
al
(1991)
H
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
H
Tavakoli
and
Tavakoli
(1993)
H
L
L
L
L
L
H
L
L
Orsini
(1999)
H
M
L
M
M
L
H
L
H
Karababa
and
Pomonis
(2010)
L-‐H
H
M
H
L
L
H
L
H
Miyakoshi
et
al
(1998)
H
M-‐H
H
M
L
H
H
L
M
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki
(2000)
H
L-‐H
L
M
L
L-‐H
H
L
M
Yamazaki
and
Murao
(2000)
H
M
L
H
L
L
H
L
M
Yamaguchi
and
Yamazaki
(2001)
H
H
M
H
L
H
H
L
M
King
et
al
(2005)
L-‐M
M
M
H
L
H
H
L
H
Rossetto
and
Elnashai
(2003)
H
L
M
H
L
L
H
L
H
Amiri
et
al
(2007)
H
L
L
H
L
L
L
L
L
Colombi
et
al
(2008)
H
M
L
L
L
H
L
L
H
Rota
et
al
(2008b)
M-‐H
H
M-‐H
H
L
H
H
L
H
Liel
and
Lynch
(2009)
M
L
L
H
L
L
H
L
H
Frolova
et
al.
(2011)
M
M
L
M
L
L
H
L
M
Pomonis
et
al.
(2011)
M
M
L
L
L
L
H
L
H
Spence
et
al.
(2011)
M
M
L
L
L
L
H
L
M
Ioannou
et
al
(2012)
H
L
L
M
L
L
H
M
H
Alternative
fragility
functions
Scholl
(1974)
M
M
H
H
L
L
H
L
H
Tavakoli
and
Tavakoli
(1993)
H
L
L
L
L
L
H
L
M
Scawthorn
et
al
(1981)
L-‐M
L-‐M
L
L
L
L
L-‐H
L
H
Petrovksi
et
al
(1984)
H
L
L
M
L
L
H
L
L
Petrovski
and
MIlutovic
(1990)
H
L
L
M
L
L
H
L
L
Benedetti
et
al
(1988)
H
L
H
H
L
H
H
M
H
The Global
Earthquake Model
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april 2015