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    JJA 2024 Outlook

    Uploaded by

    Kundal Khan Bareach

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    JJA 2024 Outlook

    Uploaded by

    Kundal Khan Bareach
    13 views2 pages

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    13 views2 pages

    JJA 2024 Outlook

    Uploaded by

    Kundal Khan Bareach

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    Government of Pakistan

    Ministry of Aviation (Aviation Division)


    Pakistan Meteorological Department
    Sector: H-8/2, Islamabad.
    Tel:051-9250364
    Fax:051-9250368
    Date: 24th May 2024

    Outlook for June-July-August (JJA), 2024


    1. Synoptic Situation:

    During the season JJA 2024, it is anticipated that the neutral phase of climate indicators such as the El Niño
    Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will persist during the season with a tendency to shift towards the negative
    phase (La Niña) at the end of the season. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecasted to persist
    in a positive phase throughout the season. Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, the climatic forecast
    for Pakistan is as follows:

    2. Seasonal Outlook (Rainfall):

    As per seasonal outlook normal* to above normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, with
    maximum departure over central to northern Punjab and southern Sindh. Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
    Gilgit Baltistan may get nearly normal rainfall whereas most parts of Balochistan may get slightly above
    normal rainfall during the season JJA 2024. Moreover, the second half of the season is expected to be wetter
    than the first half.

    Figure 1: Normal (1991-2020) rainfall and monthly anomaly outlook for JJA 2024

    3. Seasonal Temperature Outlook:

    Nationwide, the daytime maximum temperature is expected to be nearly normal however northern Khyber
    Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience warmer than normal maximum temperature during the
    season. Nighttime temperatures are likely to exceed normal levels across most regions of the country, with
    marked deviation anticipated over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and southwestern
    Balochistan.

    *Normal = 30-years (period) average climatology


    Figure 2: Normal (1991-2020) maximum temperature and monthly anomaly outlook for JJA 2024

    Figure 3: Normal (1991-2020) minimum temperature and monthly anomaly outlook for JJA 2024

    4. Impacts:
     High temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate
    snowmelt, increasing river flow.
     Based on recent weather conditions, a considerable amount of soil moisture is currently available in
    the fields. However, rising temperatures may reduce moisture content before the onset of monsoon.
    Therefore, farmers are advised to irrigate according to the needs of their crops.
     Day time temperature is likely to remain above normal all over the country during start of the forecast
    period but the expected rains towards the end of the season will normalize the high temperature.
     Strong winds, dust storms, and gusts are highly likely in the season.
     The extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas of the major rivers of the country are
    likely to generate riverine floods.
     Flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent areas of koh-e-Suleman and plains of major cities
    in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall events during the season.
     The atmospheric conditions are supportive for the likelihood of heat wave development; particularly
    over the plain areas of the country, especially over the southern half in the month of June.

    Note: Considering the dynamic nature of the climate system the outlook is updated monthly during the last
    week of each month

    *Normal = 30-years (period) average climatology

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