8

NOT

Mathematics
Quarter 4 - Module 6
Probability of an Event: Experimental Probability
and Theoretical Probability

Department of Education ● Republic of the Philippines

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Mathematics- Grade 8
Alternative Delivery Mode

Quarter 4 –Module 6: (Probability of an Event: Experimental Probability

and Theoretical Probability)
First Edition, 2020

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 Mathematics 8
Quarter 4 - Module 6

Probability of an Event: Experimental Probability

and Theoretical Probability

Department of Education ● Republic of the Philippines

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 This page is intentionally blank

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 Table of Contents

What This Module is About ................................................................................................................... i

What I Need to Know .............................................................................................................................. i
How to Learn from this Module ...........................................................................................................ii
Icons of this Learning Package ...........................................................................................................ii

What I Know ........................................................................................................................................... iii -iv

Lesson 1:
(Probability of an Event: Experimental Probability)
What’s In: Let’s Recall!........................................................................................ 1
What I Need to Know .......................................................................................... 2
What’s New: Word’s come Easy..................................................................... 2-3
What Is It: Discussion ........................................................................................ .4
What’s More: Try This Out!............................................................................... .5
What I Have Learned: Solve Me! …………………………………………….6
Lesson 2:
(Probability of an Event: Theoretical Probability)

What I Need to Know .......................................................................................... 7

What’s New: What is the probability? ...........................................................7
What Is It: Discussion ........................................................................................ 8
What’s more: Try This Out!............................................................................... 9-10
What I Have Learned: Solve Me! …………………………………………….10

Lesson 3:
(Comparison between Experimental and Theoretical Probability)
What’s In: Let’s Recall! .................................................................................11
What I Need to Know .......................................................................................... 11
What’s New: Experimental or Probability? ..................................................... 12
What Is It: Discussion ........................................................................................ 13

What I Have Learned: Answer Me! ………………………………………….14

Summary..............................................................................................................................15
Assessment: (Post-Test)................................................................................................16-17
Key to Answers.........................................................................................................................18-19
Reference.............................................................................................................................2

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What This Module is about:

This module is a tool to guide a student to understand probability leading to its richer
application in the real world. It encourages students to discover the concepts of probability
by themselves through the different activities which can be answered individually. The
module has three lessons, pacing of the lessons depends on the students’ needs and
learning competencies.

What I Need to Know

At the end of this module, you should be able to:

1. Illustrate and differentiate Experimental Probability and Theoretical Probability.

(M8GE-IVi-1)

2. Find the probability of a simple event. (M8GE-IVh-1)

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How to Learn from this Module
To achieve the objectives cited above, you are to do the following:
• Take your time reading the lessons carefully.
• Follow the directions and/or instructions in the activities and exercises diligently.
• Answer all the given tests and exercises.

Icons of this Module

What I Need to This part contains learning objectives that

Know are set for you to learn as you go along the
module.

What I know This is an assessment as to your level of

knowledge to the subject matter at hand,
meant specifically to gauge prior related
knowledge
What’s In This part connects previous lesson with that
of the current one.

What’s New An introduction of the new lesson through

various activities, before it will be presented
to you

What is It These are discussions of the activities as a

way to deepen your discovery and under-
standing of the concept.

What’s More These are follow-up activities that are in-

tended for you to practice further in order to
master the competencies.

What I Have Activities designed to process what you

Learned have learned from the lesson

What I can do These are tasks that are designed to show-

case your skills and knowledge gained, and
applied into real-life concerns and situations.

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 What I Know

Multiple Choice:

Directions: Read and answer the questions below. Select the letter of the best answer from
the given choices.

1. All the possible outcomes that can occur when a coin is tossed twice are listed in the box.
What is the probability of having a head? HH TH
TT HT

a. ¼ c. 3/4
b. ½ d. 1

2. The local weather forecaster said there is a 20% chance of rain tomorrow. What is the
probability that it will not rain tomorrow?

a. 0.2 b. 0.8 c. 20 d. 80

3. A quiz contains three multiple choice-type questions and two true/false-type questions.
Suppose you guess the answer randomly on every question. The table below gives the
probability of each score.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.105 0.316 0.352 0.180 0.043 0.004

What is the probability of failing the quiz (getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 correct) by guessing?

a. 0.047 b. 0.575 c. 0.773 d. 0.953

4. A spinner with three equal divisions was spun 1000 times. The following information was
recorded. What is the probability of the spinner landing on RED?

Outcome Blue Red Yellow

Spins 448 267 285

a. 27% b. 29% c. 45% d. 73%

5. A number cube is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number that is not 3?

a. 0/6 or 0 b. 1/6 c. 5/6 d. 6/6 or 1

6. In a 500-ticket draw for an educational prize, Ana’s name was written on 41 tickets. What
is the probability that she would win?

a. 0.082 b. 0.122 c. 0.41 d. 0.82

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7. The weather forecaster has announced that Region 1 has rainy (R), partly cloudy (PR)
2
and cloudy (C) weather. If the chance of having R is twice as the probability of PR which is .
7
What is the correct table for probability?

a.
outcome R PR C
probability 1/7 4/7 2/7

b. outcome R PR C
probability 1/7 2/7 4/7

c.
outcome R PR C
probability 4/7 2/7 1/7

d. outcome R PR C
probability 4/7 1/7 2/7

8. In a family of 3 children, what is the probability that the middle child is a boy?

a. 1/8 b. 1/4 c. 1/3 d. 1/2

9. Jun rolls two dice. The first die shows a 5. The second die rolls under his desk and he
cannot see it. NOW, what is the probability that both dice show 5?

a. 1/36 b. 1/6 c. 9/36 d. 1/3

10. Mrs. Castro asked her students to do an activity. Afterwards, her students noticed that
the experimental probability of tossing tails is 48%, while the mathematical/theoretical
probability is 50%. Being an attentive student, how would you explain this to your
classmates?

a. The experimental probability is wrong.

b. We should always rely on mathematical/theoretical probability.
c. It is normal for experimental probabilities to vary from the theoretical probabilities
but for a large number of trials, the two will be very close.
d. It is abnormal for the experimental probabilities to differ from the
mathematical/theoretical probabilities because the results must be the same.

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 Lesson Probability of an Event:
1 Experimental Probability

What‘s In
Let’s Recall!

In an experiment, an event is the result that we are interested in. The probability of
an event A, written P (A), is defined as
Number of favorable outcomes n(A)
P(A) = Number of all Possible outcome n(S)

Example:

When a fair die is thrown, what is the probability of getting?

a) a number 2
b) a number that is a multiple of 3
c) a number that is greater than 6
d) a number that is less than 7

Solution:
A fair die is an unbiased die where each of the six numbers is equally likely to turn up.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

a) Let A = event of getting the number 2 = {2}

Let n (A) = number of outcomes in event A = 1
n (S) = number of outcomes in S = 6

b) Let B = event of getting a multiple of 3

Multiple of 3 = {3, 6}

c) Let C = event of getting a number greater than 6

There is no number greater than 6 in the sample space S.
C={}
A probability of 0 means the event will never occur.

d) Let D = event of getting a number less than 7

Numbers less than 7 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A probability of 1 means the event will always occur.

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 What I Need to Know
In this lesson, we will look into experimental probability and finding the experimental
probability of an event.

What’s New
“WORDS COME EASY!”
:

Sarah and her friend perform the same experiment. Record each outcome of your
experiment (Continue the Experiment up to 18 trials) on the table provided below. Then fill in
the blanks using the basic concepts of probability to complete the paragraph and answer the
questions that follows.

Sarah and her friend decided to find the number of times three (3) heads “HHH”
would come up when flipping three (3) five-peso coins simultaneously. Every time Sarah and
her friend flip the fair coin is an _______________________. The
______________________that they are looking for is to come up with three heads: {HHH}.
The ___________________________ is the set of all possible outcomes: {HHH}, {HTH}…
{TTT}.

These are the results of their experiment. Complete the table.

Coin Trial Trial Trial 3 Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial 9
1 2 4 5 6 7 8
Coin 1 H H T T H H T T T
Coin 2 T T T H T H T H T
Coin 3 T H T H T H H T T
Outcome HTT HTH
Is it
{HHH} No No
Yes or No

In order to find all the __________________, they have to continue flipping the coins for at
least 30 times.

Coin Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial Trial
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Coin 1
Coin 2
Coin 3
Outcome
Is it
{HHH}
Yes or No

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Questions:

1. Were you able to complete the paragraph with the correct words?

2. Do the words come easy to you? Why?

3. After 9 trials, Sarah and her friends had 1 “HHH” event. Is the result of the
experiment close to what you have expected?

What would have they done to make it closer to what is expected?

4. In your group experiment, how many “HHH” events did you have?

5. Is the result of your experiment close to what is expected?

Why?

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 What is it
Discussion:
What Sarah, his friends and you had performed uses an Experimental Probability.

Experimental Probability is computed after performing an

experiment on the actual situation. The actual result of the
experiment is used to determine the probability of an event. It is the
ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of
trials. It refers to the probability of an event occurring when an
experiment is conducted.

Number of times the event occurred

P (E) = Number of trials

Example 1: If a die is rolled 100 times and the number “3” occurs 12 times,
what is the probability that “3” shows up on a die?

Solution:

Number of times the event occurred

P (E) = Number of trials

12
P (E) = 100

P (E) = 3
25

Example 2: If a marksman hits the target 95 times and misses it 5 times, what
is the probability of scoring a hit?

Solution:

Number of times the event occurred

P (E) = Number of trials

95
P (E) = 100

P (E) = 19
20

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 What’s more
Try this Out!
Find the Experimental Probability of the given event. Number 1 is done for you.

1. A coin is tossed 60 times. The head appeared 45 times. Find the experimental
probability of getting heads?

Solution:
Number of times the event occurred
P (E) = Number of trials

45
Reduce to lowest
P (E) = 60 term if applicable

P (E) = 3
4 Answer can also be expressed in decimal or
percentage. In this example, the answer may be
0.75 or 75%.

Try This Out!

2. An experiment consists of randomly choosing colored card from a box. Use the result to
find the experimental probability of each event.

Outcome Frequency
blue 7
green 12
red 8
yellow 13

a. Choosing an orange card

b. Choosing a green card

c. Choosing a yellow card

d. Not choosing a yellow card

e. Not choosing a blue

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 What I have learned
Solve Me!

Answer:

Color No. of times it occur

Violet 13
Red 9
Yellow 7
Blue 1

1. What is the experimental probability that yellow will occur?

Answer
rrr

2. How many trials are done in this experiment?

Answer

3. What is the experimental probability that no blue will occur on the next
spin?

Answer

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 Lesson Probability of an Event:
2 Theoretical Probability
What I Need to Know
Sometimes, conducting an experiment isn’t possible for practical or financial
reasons. For example, you might be studying a rare genetic trait in salamanders and
you want to know what the probability of any one salamander having the rare trait is.
If you don’t have access to all of the salamanders on the planet, you won’t be able to
conduct an experiment so you’ll have to rely on theory to give you the answer.
Theoretical probability is also used in many areas of science where direct
experimentation isn’t possible. For example, probabilities involving subatomic
particles or abstract structures like vector spaces.
In this lesson, we will look into Theoretical probability and finding the
Theoretical probability of an event.

What is a
What’s New Probability?

Probabilities can be solved theoretically in which each event is assumed to be

equally likely. Look carefully at the given set then, match column A with column B.
Your answers will help you understand the concept on the probability of an event.

Given: Set S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

The probability of having:

Column A Column B

1. a 10 1
a.
12

2. a 13 2 1
b. or
12 6

3. odd numbers 3
c. or ¼
12

4. even numbers 4 1
d. or
12 3

5. an odd number divisible by 3 6 1

e. or
12 2

6. an even number divisible by 3 0

f. or 0
12

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 What’s is it
Discussion:

Activity 2 uses theoretical probability. What is Theoretical Probability?

Theoretical Probability is the probability that a certain

outcome will occur as determined through reasoning or
calculation. It is the ratio of a number of favourable outcomes to
the total number of outcomes

Number of ways the event can occur

P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space

Example 1: When a fair die is rolled once, what is the probability of:
a. a 7
Solution: Since the faces of a die do not have a 7, the probability of 7 turning
up is

Number of ways the event can occur 0

P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space = 6 or 0

b. An odd number
Solution: the event of obtaining an odd number is 3 outcomes: 1, 3, or 5 turns
up.
Hence,
Number of ways the event can occur 3 1
P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space = 6 or 2

c. a 5
Solution: there is only one outcome of getting a 5. Hence,

Number of ways the event can occur 1

P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space = 6

d. Not a 5
Solution: the event of not getting a 5 includes five outcomes: 1,2,3,4 or 6.
Hence,

Number of ways the event can occur 5

P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space = 6

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 What’s more?
Find the Theoretical Probability of the given event. Numbers 1 and 2 are done for you.

1. What is the theoretical probability of getting a total of 4 or 7 in rolling a set

of two dice?
Step 1: Set up a sample
For two dice, the probabilities are: space. In other words,
[1][1], [1][2], [1][3], [1][4], [1][5], [1][6], write out all of the
[2][1], [2][2], [2][3], [2][4],[2][5], [2][6], possible “events” that can
happen. In this case, the
[3][1], [3][2], [3][3], [3][4], [3][5], [3][6], events are the numbers
[4][1], [4][2], [4][3], [4][4], [4][5], [4][6], that come up after the
[5][1], [5][2], [5][3], [5][4], [5][5], [5][6], dice are rolled.
[6][1], [6][2], [6][3], [6][4], [6][5], [6][6].
. Step 2: Figure out the
I’ve bolded the rolls that result in a total of 4 and 7. probability. The entire
Number of ways the event can occur sample space is made
P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space up of 36 possible rolls.
9 There are 9 rolls that
result in a 7, so the
= 36 or 0.25 or 25% answer is:

2. Determine the Probability of rolling a die twice and getting a 4 on each.

Step 1: Set up a
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} sample space.
.
Number of ways the event can occur
P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space
1
P (4) = 6 (first time) . Step 2: Figure out the
1 probability.
P (4) = 6 (Second time)
1 1 1
P (4) * P (4) =? P (4) * P (4) = 6 * 6 = 36

Try This Out

3. Roland is asked to choose a day from a week. What is the probability of

choosing a day which starts with S?

4. Choosing a month from a year, what is the probability of selecting a month

with 31 days?

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 5. Two fair coins are tossed simultaneously, what is the probability of showing
tail (T) first and head (H) next?

6. A spinner is divided equally and numbered as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1,

2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2. What is the probability that the pointer will stop at an
even prime? ____________

What I have learned

Solve Me!

Find the Probability of each outcome:

1. Rolling an odd number from 1 to 20.

2. Rolling an even number from 1 to 20.

3. Choosing a vowel from the letters in the name ELIZABETH.

4. Choosing a peanut or a cashew from a bowl that contains 10 peanuts, 5

cashews and 10 chips.

5. Choosing a red marble from a bag that contains 6 red, 6 blue and 8 green
marbles.

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 Lesson Comparison Between
Experimental and Theoretical
3 Probability

What‘s In
Let’s Recall!
If we toss a coin 1000 times and heads come up 603 times, we can
603
say that the probability of getting head is . This is an experimental
1000
probability.

There are only two ways a coin can fall, either on a head or on a tail. If
the coin is fair, each outcome is equally likely, so we can say that the
1
probability of getting head is . This is a Theoretical Probability.
2

What I Need to Know

In this lesson, you are expected to differentiate Experimental

probability from Theoretical probability and find the probability of an event using
experimental and theoretical probability.

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 What’s New
Experimental or Theoretical?
Find the probability of an event and identify whether it is experimental or
theoretical.

1. When a fair die is rolled once, what is the probability of a number less than 7?

2. A standard deck of 52 cards consists of 13 black spades, 13 black clubs, 13 red

hearts, and 13 red diamonds. Each suit has an ace, a king, a queen, a jack and
the numbers from 2 to 10. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52
cards. What is the probability of drawing a queen?

3. A thumbtack was tossed 50 times. It landed “point up” 35 times and “point
down” 15 times. What is the probability that on the next toss, it will land
“point up”?

4. What is the probability of a pulling a red marble out of a bag containing 16 red
marbles, 10 green marbles, 14 blue marbles and 10 yellow marbles?

5. Suppose the results when 20 slips of papers are drawn at random from a hat
containing 100 slips were as follows: 4 pink, 10 green, and 6 white. What is
the probability that the next slip that will be drawn will be a green?

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 What is it
Discussion:

Comparison
Experimental Probability Theoretical Probability
The process to determine the probability of It is determined by noting all the possible
an event by carrying out an experimental outcomes theoretically, and determining
where trials are conducted and data is how likely the given outcome is.
recorded to determine the probability of an
event.

Number of times the event occurred Number of ways the event can occur
P (E) = Number of trials P (E) = Number of possible outcomes in the sample space

It is based on actual experience. It is based on Logical arguments.

As stated above, Activity numbers 1, 2, and 4 are examples of Theoretical

Probability. Determining the probability of an event is based only on logical
arguments. While the items 3 and 5 are examples of Experimental probability. It is
based on actual results to determine the probability of an event.

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 What I have learned
Answer me!

Directions: Identify whether the following situations involve theoretical or

experimental probability then solve its probability.

1. During a basketball practice, Zach shoots 7 balls out of 13 tries. What is

the probability that Zach will shoot the next ball?

2. What is the probability of choosing a heart suit card in a standard deck of

cards?

3. Refer on the spinner below: Out of 840 spins, about how many times
should the arrow is expected to land on the white sector?

Answe

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Summary

This module was about the Experimental and Theoretical Probability of an event.
In this module, the students were encouraged to discover by themselves the difference
between experimental probability and theoretical probability. Their knowledge and
computational skills gained in this module help them solve real life problems involving
probabilities of an event which would lead them to make better decisions in life and to
perform practical tasks to the best of what they can.

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 Post – Assessment Test

1. Coco has been observing the types of vehicle passing through an intersection. Of the
last 50 vehicles, 28 were tricycles, 8 were trucks and 14 were buses. Estimate the
probability that the next vehicle through the intersection will be a BUS.

a. 0.16 b. 0.28 c.0.56 d. 0.72

2. Which of the following illustrates a theoretical probability?

a. Bell rolled a die several times and recorded her observations.

b. Bell tossed a coin and listed down the number of occurrences for heads and tail.
c. Bell has three 10-peso coins, four 5-peso coins and five 1-peso
coins. She repeatedly picked a coin from her pocket and listed down the outcomes.
d. Bell asked her 40 classmates if they are left–handed. Based on the survey, 8
students said they are left-handed, so he/she estimated that there are only 8 left -
handed students from the class.

3. After 500 spins of the spinner, the following information was recorded. What is the
probability of the spinner landing on VIOLET?
Outcome Spins
Green 225
Orange 132
Violet 143

a. 27% b. 29% c. 45% d. 71%

4. A die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number that is greater than 6?

0 1 5 6
a. or 0 b. c. d. or 1
6 6 6 6

5. In a 2000-ticket draw for an educational prize, your name was written on 58 tickets. What
is the probability that you will get the prize?

a. 2.9% b. 5.8% c. 29% d. 58%

6. In a family of three children, what is the probability that the middle child is a girl?

1 1 1 1
a. b. c. d.
8 4 3 2

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7. Jun rolls two dice. The first die shows a 2. The second die rolls under his desk and he
cannot see it. What is the probability that both dice show 2?

1 1 9 1
a. b. c. d.
36 6 36 3

8. You tossed a coin twenty times and you got tails each time. You tossed again and still a
tail turned up. Do you think the coin is FAIR? Why?

a. I think the coin is not fair because it favored the heads.

b. I think the coin is fair because both faces of the coin have equal chances of turning up. c. I
think the coin is not fair because for twenty experiments, it is expected to turn up tails, too
but it didn’t.
d. I think the coin is fair because the probability of turning tails up is 3/4 while that of heads is
only 1/4.

9. A coin is tossed thrice. What is the probability of having two heads and a tail?

1 1 3
a. b. c. d. 1
8 2 8

10. An experiment consists of rolling a number cube. What is the probability of rolling a 3.

1 3 1
a. b. c. d. 1
6 6 2

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 Key to Answers
Pre – Assessment Test – Answer key

1. Answer: C Three out of the 4 outcomes has three heads.

2. Answer: B 100% - 20% = 80% or 0.8
3. Answer: D 0.105 + 0.316 + 0.352 + 0.18 = 0.953 or 95.3%
4. Answer: A 267/1000 = 0.267 or 27%
5. Answer: C 1 – 1/6 = 5/6
6. Answer: A 41/500 = 0.082 or 8.2%
7. Answer: C PR = 2/7 where; 2PR = R
R = 2(2/7)
2(PR) = 2(2/7)
R = 4/7; 4/7 + 2/7 + 1/7 = 7/7 or 1
8. Answer: D Sample Space = BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG P = 4/8
or ½
9. Answer: B since we already know that one of the dice shows a 5, the probability of
getting a 5 in the other die is 1/6.
10. Answer: C

Lesson 1

What’s new What’s more What I Have learned

Experiment 2
Event 0 7
a. or 0 1. P (yellow) = or
40 30
Sample space 12 3
b. or or 0.3 or 30% 0.233 or 23.3%
TTT – NO 40 10
13 2. Total = 13+9+7+1 =
THH – NO c. or 0.325 or 32.5%
40 30
HTT – NO d. Not yellow = 3. P (no Blue) =
HHH – YES (7+12+8) = 27 29
(13+9+7), hence or
TTH – NO 27 30
or 0.675 or 67.5% 0.967 or 96.7%
THT - NO 40

TTT - NO e. Not blue = (12+8+13)

33
Outcomes = 33 hence, or
40
0.825 or 82.5%

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Lesson 2
What’s new What’s more What I Have learned

1. a 2 10 1
3. 1. or
7 20 2
2. f 7 10 1
4. 2. or
3. e 12 20 2
1 4
4. e 5. 3.
4 9
5. b 4 1 10 2
6. or 4. or
6.b 16 4 25 5
6 3
5. or
20 10

Lesson 3
What’s new What I Have learned

6 7
1. or 1 Theoretical 1. Experimental
6 13
4 1 13 1
2. or Theoretical 2. or Theoretical
52 3 52 4
35 7 3. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙
3. or Experimental
50 10
16 8
4. or Theoretical
50 25
10 1
5. or Experimental
20 2

Post – Assessment Test – Answer key

1. Answer: b. 14/50 or 0.28

2. Answer: D illustrates theoretical probability, the others illustrate experimental
probability.
3. Answer: B 143 500 = 0.286 or 29%
4. Answer: A, A die has 6 faces only; therefore, it has no side which is greater than 6.
58
5. Answer: A = 0.029 or 2.9%
2000
4
6. Answer: D Sample Space = BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG, P = or
8
1
2
7. Answer: B since we already know that one of the dice shows a 2, the probability of
1
getting a 2 in the other die is .
6
8. Answer: C The coin is not fair because for twenty experiments, it should have turned
up tails, too. For a fair coin, the P (H) = P (T).
9. Answer: C. Three out of the 8 outcomes has two heads and a tail.
1
10. Answer. A. Since a number cube has only 1 of 3, hence the answer is .
6

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 References:

Sergio C. Custodio, Interactive Mathematics Grade 8.pp. 290 – 303, Innovative Educational
Materials Inc.

Mathematics Grade 8 Teachers Guide, quarter 4 Module 11 Introduction to Probability, pp.

595-639

https://quizizz.com/admin/quiz/57321eb3dad4318adcdd7b13/experimental-and-theoretical-
probability
This site provides exercises/ worksheets for the students to answer

https://www.algebra-class.com/theoretical-probability.html
This site provides definition of experimental and theoretical Probability

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