Business Analytics

Methods, Models, and Decisions

Corso di Laurea in Data Analysis
Professoressa Emma Zavarrone
Libera Università di Lingue e Comunicazione IULM

Second edition
James R. Evans

PEARSONTEXTBUILDER
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina I

Business Analytics
Corso di Laurea in Data Analysis
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina II
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina III

Business Analytics
Corso di Laurea in Data Analysis
Professoressa Emma Zavarrone
Libera Università di Lingue e Comunicazione IULM

James R. Evans
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina IV

© 2018 Pearson Italia, Milano – Torino

Chapters selected from:

James R. Evans, Business Analytics. Methods, Models, and Decisions 2/e, Pearson Education Limited, 2017
© Pearson Education Limited 2017
This custom edition of is published by arrangement with Pearson Education Limited, United Kingdom.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or me-
chanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without permission from Pearson
Education, Inc.

Custom edition published by Pearson Italia S.p.A., Copyright © 2018.

This publication is protected by copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited re-
production, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise.

Unless otherwise indicated herein, any third-party trademarks, logos, or icons that may appear in this work are the property
of their respective owners, and any references to third-party trademarks, logos, icons, or other trade dress are for demonstrative
or descriptive purposes only. Such references are not intended to imply any sponsorship, endorsement, authorization, or pro-
motion of Pearson’s products by the owners of such marks, or any relationship between the owner and Pearson Education
Inc., or its affiliates, authors, licensees, or distributors.

Composition: Andrea Astolfi

Cover design: Maurizio Garofalo
Printing: ROTOMAIL - Vignate (MI)

978-88-9190-711-0

Printed in Italy

First Edition: October 2018

PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina V

Brief Contents

About the Author VII

Credits IX

Part 1 Foundations of Business Analytics

Chapter 1 Introduction to Business Analytics 27
Chapter 2 Analytics on Spreadsheets 63

Part 2 Descriptive Analytics

Chapter 3 Visualizing and Exploring Data 79
Chapter 4 Descriptive Statistical Measures 121
Chapter 5 Probability Distributions and Data Modeling 157
Chapter 6 Sampling and Estimation 207
Chapter 7 Statistical Inference 231

Part 3 Predictive Analytics

Chapter 8 Trendlines and Regression Analysis 259
Chapter 9 Forecasting Techniques 299
Chapter 10 Introduction to Data Mining 327

Appendix A 611
Glossary 635

V
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina VI
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina VII

About the Author

James R. Evans
Professor, University of Cincinnati College of Business
James R. Evans is professor in the Department of Operations, Business Analytics, and
Information Systems in the College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. He holds
BSIE and MSIE degrees from Purdue and a PhD in Industrial and Systems Engineering
from Georgia Tech.
Dr. Evans has published numerous textbooks in a variety of business disciplines, in-
cluding statistics, decision models, and analytics, simulation and risk analysis, network
optimization, operations management, quality management, and creative thinking. He
has published over 90 papers in journals such as Management Science, IIE Transactions,
Decision Sciences, Interfaces, the Journal of Operations Management, the Quality Man-
agement Journal, and many others, and wrote a series of columns in Interfaces on creativ-
ity in management science and operations research during the 1990s. He has also served
on numerous journal editorial boards and is a past-president and Fellow of the Decision
Sciences Institute. In 1996, he was an INFORMS Edelman Award Finalist as part of a
project in supply chain optimization with Procter & Gamble that was credited with help-
ing P&G save over $250,000,000 annually in their North American supply chain, and
consulted on risk analysis modeling for Cincinnati 2012’s Olympic Games bid proposal.
A recognized international expert on quality management, he served on the Board of
Examiners and the Panel of Judges for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award.
Much of his current research focuses on organizational performance excellence and mea-
surement practices.

VII
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina VIII
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina IX

Credits

Text Credits

Chapter 1 Pages 28–29 “The Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden” from Cincinnati
Zoo Transforms Customer Experience and Boosts Profits, Copyright © 2012. Used by
permission of IBM Corporation. Pages 30–31 “Common Types of Decisions that can be
Enhanced by Using Analytics” by Thomas H. Davenport from How Organizations Make
Better Decisions. Published by SAS Institute, Inc. Pages 36–37 Analytics in the Home
Lending and Mortgage Industry by Craig Zielazny. Used by permission of Craig Zielazny.
Page 52 Excerpt by Thomas Olavson, Chris Fry from Spreadsheet Decision-Support
Tools: Lessons Learned at Hewlett-Packard. Published by Interfaces. Pages 55–56 Analyt-
ics in Practice: Developing Effective Analytical Tools at Hewlett-Packard: Thomas Olva-
son; Chris Fry; Interfaces Page 59 Drout Advertising Research Project by Jamie Drout.
Used by permission of Jamie Drout.
Chapter 5 Page 177 Excerpt by Chris K. Anderson from Setting Prices on Priceline.
Published by Interfaces.
Chapter 7 Page 253 Help Desk Service Improvement Project by Francisco Endara M
from Help Desk Improves Service and Saves Money With Six Sigma. Used by permission
of The American Society for Quality.
Chapter 12 Pages 436–437 Implementing Large-Scale Monte Carlo Spreadsheet Models

Photo Credits

Chapter 1 Page 27 Analytics Business Analysis: Mindscanner/Fotolia Page 56 Computer,

calculator, and spreadsheet: Hans12/Fotolia
Chapter 2 Page 63 Computer with Spreadsheet: Gunnar Pippel/Shutterstock

Chapter 3 Page 79 Spreadsheet with magnifying glass: Poles/Fotolia Page 98 Data

Analysis: 2jenn/Shutterstock
Chapter 4 Page 121 Pattern of colorful numbers: JonnyDrake/Shutterstock Page 151
Computer screen with financial data: NAN728/Shutterstock
Chapter 5 Page 157 Faded spreadsheet: Fantasista/Fotolia Page 177 Probability and
cost graph with pencil: Fantasista/Fotolia Page 198 Business concepts: Victor Correia/
Shutterstock
Chapter 6 Page 207 Series of bar graphs: Kalabukhava Iryna/Shutterstock Page 211
Brewery truck: Stephen Finn/Shutterstock

IX
PTB Evans.qxp_Romane 21/09/18 21:24 Pagina X
Chapter 5 Page 157 Faded spreadsheet: Fantasista/Fotolia Page 177 Probability and
cost graph with pencil: Fantasista/Fotolia Page 198 Business concepts: Victor Correia/
Shutterstock
Chapter 6 Page 207 Series of bar graphs: Kalabukhava Iryna/Shutterstock Page 211
Credits
Brewery truck: Stephen Finn/Shutterstock
Chapter 7 Page 231 Business man solving problems with illustrated graph display:
Serg Nvns/Fotolia Page 253 People working at a helpdesk: StockLite/Shutterstock
Chapter 8 Page 259 Trendline 3D graph: Sheelamohanachandran/Fotolia Page 279
Computer and Risk: Gunnar Pippel/Shutterstock Page 280C 4 blank square shape naviga-
tion web 2.0 button slider: Claudio Divizia/Shutterstock Page 280L Graph chart illustra-
tions of growth and recession: Vector Illustration/Shutterstock Page 280R Audio gauge:
Shutterstock
Chapter 9 Page 299 Past and future road sign: Karen Roach/Fotolia Page 324 NBC
Studios: Sean Pavone/Dreamstine
Chapter 10 Page 327 Data Mining Technology Strategy Concept: Kentoh/Shutterstock
Page 363 Business man drawing a marketing diagram: Helder Almeida/Shutterstock
Chapter 11 Page 367 3D spreadsheet: Dmitry/Fotolia Page 375 Buildings: ZUMA
Press/Newscom Page 381 Health Clinic: Poprostskiy Alexey/Shutterstock