Counting and Probability

Term Explanation
probability The likelihood or chance of something happening. A probability
answer is ALWAYS in the range: 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1
trial/experiment The process of trying something out to find the chance (probability)
of an event occurring. For example: Tossing a coin 100 times.
outcome A possible result from an experiment. For example: ‘tails’ is one of
two possible outcomes when tossing a coin.
sample space The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes of that experiment.
experimental The result of doing an experiment to find the chances of an event
probability occurring. For example: An experiment was conducted to see how
many tails appeared when a coin was tossed 100 times. The result
was .

relative frequency The outcome of an experiment. In the above example is the

relative frequency.
theoretical The probability of an event happening using knowledge of
probability
numbers. The theoretical calculation.

𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆)
tree diagram One method used for counting the number of possible outcomes of
an event. The last column of the tree diagram shows all the
possible outcomes.

contingency table A table showing the distribution of one variable in rows and
another in columns, used to study the correlation between the two
variables.

Venn diagram A useful way to represent mathematical or logical sets of

information. In a Venn diagram, the position and overlapping of
circles are used to indicate the relationships between different sets
of information.

union The set of all outcomes that occur in at least one of the events.
Key word: or

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intersection The set of outcomes that occur in all the events

Key word: and

mutually exclusive Events with no outcomes in common (no intersection)

events
complementary Mutually exclusive events that contain all the outcomes between
events
them.

independent Two events where the outcome of one event does not affect the
events
outcome of the other.

dependent events The outcome of one event affects the outcome of the next event.

fundamental A way to work out the number of outcomes when different options
counting principle are offered. The principle can be used in probability problems.

If there are m ways of doing one event, n ways of doing a 2nd event
and p ways of doing a 3rd event, then there will be 𝑚 × 𝑛 × 𝑝 total
possible arrangements.

factorial notation The result of multiplying a sequence of descending natural

numbers down to 1 (such as 4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
The symbol is ‘!’.

4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24

permutation A permutation is an arrangement or ordering of several distinct

objects where order matters.

2
Grade 10 and 11

Tree Diagrams
In a tree diagram (once it is complete), to find the probability of an outcome we multiply
across the branches. If more than one outcome matches the results required, then addition
of the answers gained from the multiplication is used.
Remember that each ‘clump’ of branches should add up to a probability of 1.

Independent events and dependent events

Independent events: the probability of one event is not affected by another event. For
example, tossing a coin more than once – the second toss is not affected by what was
tossed previously.
Dependent events: the probability of one event is affected by another event. For example, if
there is a bag of two different coloured balls and one is drawn out but not replaced, this
affects the probability of drawing a certain colour in a following draw.

‘Not replaced’
If an item IS replaced, then the following event is independent of what was drawn.
If an item is NOT replaced, then the following event is dependent on what was drawn.

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Example
The probability that the first answer in a maths quiz competition will be correct is 0,4. If the
first answer is correct, the probability of getting the next answer correct rises to 0,5. However,
if the answer is wrong, the probability of getting the next answer correct is only 0,3.
a) Represent the information on a tree diagram. Show the probabilities associated with each
branch as well as the possible outcomes.
b) Calculate the probability of getting the second answer correct.
NSC NOV 2016
Notes
This may seem like a difficult question when it is first read. The instruction to draw a tree
diagram is key because this will make it much clearer.
(a) Consider:
How many options are given? (2)
How many questions will be asked/extensions needed? (2)
What are the options? (correct or wrong)
(b) Look carefully at the outcomes – choose those that represent the second answer being
correct.
Multiply along the branches leading to these outcomes and add.
Solution:
a) b)
𝑃(2nd answer correct)
= 𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝑊 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶)
= (0,4)(0,5) + (0,6)(0,3)
= 0,38

4
Venn diagrams
Ensure you have a clear understanding of the following phrases and how they relate to Venn
diagrams.
A and B not A A or B
not (A or B) A B only
B not (A and B) A only
not B

A and B not A

A or B not (A or B)

A B only

B not (A and B)

A only not B

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Mutually exclusive events and complementary events
Mutually exclusive events Complementary events
Explanation/ Events with no intersection. Events that contain all the possible
Example outcomes between them.
Grade 10 learners and Grade 11 A learner either draws a pencil
learners. from the bag or they do not. Only
one can happen at once but one
must happen.
Venn diagram

Notation 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 )

Example
A survey was conducted amongst 100 learners at a school to establish their involvement
in three codes of sport, soccer, netball, and volleyball. The results are shown below:
 55 learners play soccer (S)
 21 learners play netball (N)
 7 learners play volleyball (V)
 3 learners play netball only
 2 learners play soccer and
volleyball
 1 learner plays all three
sports

The Venn diagram below shows the information above.

a) Determine the values of 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑 and 𝑒.

b) What is the probability that one of the learners chosen at random from this
group plays netball or volleyball?
NSC NOV 2016

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Notes
This question is like needing to draw the Venn diagram from the information given. You
will still need to work out what numbers go in each section.
Consider: where should we always start when completing a Venn diagram?
(the intersection)
So, we need to work our way outwards from there until the last areas filled in are those
that represent ONLY a certain set.
Note that the 1 has been filled in.
How will we find the value of ‘a’?
(It is the only missing value, so knowing that 21 learners play netball will be used and the
other numbers subtracted).
How will we find the value of ‘b’?
(It forms part of the intersection of soccer and volleyball and we know that is 2 but 1 has
already been counted).
c and d can now both be found using the totals for each sport and e will be found in a
similar way – we know the total surveyed.
(b)
Remember that ‘or’ means ‘more’ - there is more chance when the option of ‘or’ is given.
(only c and e are excluded)
Solution:
a) 𝑎 = 15 ; 𝑏 = 1 ; 𝑐 = 38 ; 𝑑 = 3 ; 𝑒 = 37

b) 𝑃(𝑁 𝑜𝑟 𝑉) = =

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Example
William writes a Mathematics examination and an Accounting examination. He estimates
that he has a 40% chance of passing the Mathematics examination. He estimates that
he has a 60% chance of passing the Accounting examination. He estimates that he has
a 30% chance of passing both. Determine the probability that William will fail
Mathematics and Accounting. EC 2015

Note that this question does not give a suggestion as to what method could be used to
assist in calculating the answer.
The key word is that there is a ‘both’ - in other words an intersection which in turn implies
that a Venn diagram may be useful.
Consider: how many sets are represented? (2 – mathematics and accounting)
Are they inclusive? (yes – the chance of passing both)
Draw the frame and the two overlapping circles.
Which part of the Venn diagram must always be completed first? (the intersection)
Find the information that describes this (30% chance of passing both) and fill it in.
How much chance is still left after the intersection has been completed of passing each
exam? (10% for mathematics and 30% for accounting).
Fill this in then finally check if it totals to 100% - if not there is something outside the sets
(in other words it is not exhaustive).
Failing both will be the probability on the outside of the sets.
Solution:

𝑃(fail both)= 0,3

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Contingency tables

A contingency table is a table showing the distribution of one variable in rows and another in
columns. It is used to study the correlation between the two variables.
The following example will be used to explain further:

You should be able to answer each of the following questions.

The first two are read from the rows (1-3 days and 4-7 days).
 How many people had a cold for 1 – 3 days? (105)
 How many people had a cold for 4 – 7 days? (95)
The next two are read from the columns (yes and no)
 How many people took medicine for their cold? (102)
 How many people did not take medicine for their cold? (98)
These two need you to look at two headings. First the number of days then the yes or no
column.
 How many people had a cold for 1 – 3 days AND took medicine? (86)
 How many people had a cold for 4 – 7 days and did NOT take medicine? (79)

Contingency tables can be read from to calculate probabilities. The same table will be used
now to answer probability questions:

9
 Notes
Find the probability that a person chosen at random:
had a cold for 1 – 3 days Note that each of these questions has 105
a focus on one of the totals of the 200
had a cold for 4 - 7 days 95
various headings (other than the
200
grand total which will be the
took medicine for their cold 102
denominator). 200
did not take medicine for their cold 98
200
had a cold for 1 – 3 days and took Note that each of these questions has 86
medicine a focus on an item from a column and 200

took medicine and had a cold for 4 an item from a row – in other words, 16
– 7 days two of the headings (other than the 200

had a cold for 4 – 7 days and did grand total which will be the 79
not take medicine denominator). 200

did not take medicine and had a 19

cold for 1 – 3 days 200

took medicine, given that they had Note that each of these questions has 86
a cold for 1 – 3 days a focus on a different area for the total 105

had a cold for 4 – 7 days given that since the question states, given that. 16
they took medicine This means that a particular group is 102

did not take medicine, given that already chosen. 79

they had a cold for 4 - 7 days. For example, given that they took 95

had a cold for 1 - 3 days given that medicine means that the total number 86
they took medicine of people who took medicine is the 102
new sample space.

Remember that independent events were discussed earlier when tree diagrams were
covered.
For events to be independent, the probability of one event multiplied by the probability of the
other event is equal to the probability of the intersection of the 2 events.
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Contingency tables can be used in a question relating to whether two events are
independent or not.
For example, are the events, taking medicine and having a cold for 4 – 7 days independent
of each other?

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 Solution: Notes
P(taking medicine) × P(4-7 day cold) Find the probability of each of the events on
102 95 their own and multiply them.
= ×
200 200
969
= = 0,24225
4000
Find the probability of the event of the
P(taking medicine AND 4 – 7 day cold)
86 intersection of the two events.
= = 0,43
200
0,24225 ≠ 0,43 If the answers are equal, the events are
∴ the events are not independent independent.

Further reading, listening or viewing activities related to this topic are available on the
following web links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtCFMsxp6ag
(Teaching Grade 11 probability)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdYilUV7GwQ

11
The fundamental counting principle and factorial notation

Consider the following scenario:

You and your friend decide to make key holders to make some extra money. The choices
you offer people are as follows:
Wood: Pine or oak
Size: Small, medium or large

Work out how many possible options there are that could be made.
You should have found 6 choices:
 Small pine
 Medium pine
 Large pine
 Small oak
 Medium oak
 Large oak

Note that there were TWO wood choices and THREE size choices.
To find ALL possible options (permutations), multiply the number of options to equal the total
possible.
This is the fundamental counting principle.
Definition:
If one event can occur in m ways and another event can occur in n ways, then there are
𝑚 × 𝑛 ways of doing BOTH.
This rule is not limited to two events. For example, if a person is buying a new car and is
given the following option:
 Automatic or manual
 White, red, blue or black
 Hatchback or sedan
There will be 2 × 4 × 2 = 16 possible different cars for the buyer to choose.

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The following example clearly requires a knowledge of the rule, rather than thinking through
all the possibilities.
When a crime has been committed and a witness saw one of the criminals getting away,
the police may ask the witness to look through photographs of various features to try and
put together an identikit of the criminal.
The police have the following available to be chosen from:
 40 hairlines
 48 eyes and eyebrows
 56 noses
 35 mouths
 65 chins and cheeks

How many different faces can be put together using this database?
(40 × 48 × 56 × 35 × 65 = 244 608 000)
If the witness was positive about the hairline, eyes and eyebrows and nose, there will only
be one choice for those features. How many different faces could still be made?
(1 × 1 × 1 × 35 × 65 = 2 275)
Note why ‘1’ was used for those choices. It is an important idea throughout this section.
There was only ONE of those aspects of the face that he was certain about.
This idea will now be extended further.
Consider number plates.
Number plates in South Africa are made up in various ways according to the province. Below
are three types.
Description Example
Type 1 The province (or city) abbreviation and 5 CA 56819
digits
Type 2 3 letters of the alphabet, 3 digits and the DST 551 MP
province abbreviation
Type 3 2 letters of the alphabet, 2 digits, 2 letters of DG 71 SZ GP
the alphabet and the province abbreviation
Type 2 and 3: No vowels may be used and the digit zero may not be used.
All 3 types: Repeats are allowed.

13
When answering this type of question, always make a dash for each possible item that
needs to be considered.
For example, ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ if 5 items need considering.

We are going to calculate how many of each of the types mentioned are possible to make.

For each type, make the dashes to represent where different symbols (letters or numbers)
could go. In other words, ignore the province or town represented as there are no options
for that. However, you could use ‘1’ option because that is already set.

NB: There are some basics that you need to know for this probability section.
Ensure you know:
There are 26 letters in the alphabet. 5 of those are vowels and 21 are consonants.
There are 10 digits (zero and 1 – 9)
There are 52 cards in a standard pack of cards. Those 52 are made up of 4 suits each –
13 hearts and 13 diamonds make up 26 red cards and 13 spades and 13 clubs make up
the 26 black cards. Each suit has the Ace and 2 to 10 as well as 3 picture cards – Jack,
Queen and King.

Notes
Type 1 There are 5 place holders for the different options:
____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Consider: how many digits are there that could go in position 1?
(9 – there are 10 digits in total but zero may not be used)
Place 9 on the dash.
How many digits are there that could go in position 2?
(9 as repeats are allowed).
Place 9 on the 2nd dash.
Repeat the question for each place holder.
Once all the place holders have a number, multiply.
Total different number plates possible 9 × 9 × 9 × 9 × 9
= 59 049

14
Type 2 There are 6 place holders for the different options:
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Note the bigger space where letters end, and digits begin. This can make the
process easier.
How many letters are there that could go in position 1?
(21 – as vowels may not be used) Place 21 on the 1st dash.
How many letters are there that could go in position 2?
(21 as repeats are allowed) Place 21 on the 2nd dash.
How many letters are there that could go in position 3?
(21 as repeats are allowed) Place 21 on the 3rd dash.
How many digits are there that could go in position 4?
(9 as repeats are allowed) Place 9 on the 4th dash.
How many digits are there that could go in position 5?
(9 as repeats are allowed) Place 9 on the 5th dash.
How many digits are there that could go in position 6?
(9 as repeats are allowed) Place 9 on the 6th dash.
Once all the place holders have a number, multiply.
Total different number plates possible 21 × 21 × 21 × 9 × 9 × 9
= 6 751 269
Type 3 There are 6 place holders for the different options:
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Note the bigger spaces again.
How many letters are there that could go in position 1?
(21 – as vowels may not be used) Place 21 on the dash.
How many letters are there that could go in position 2?
(21 as repeats are allowed)
How many digits are there that could go in position 3?
(9 as repeats are allowed)
How many digits are there that could go in position 4?
(9 as repeats are allowed)
How many letters are there that could go in position 5?
(21 as repeats are allowed)
How many letters are there that could go in position 6?
(21 as repeats are allowed)
Total different number plates possible 21 × 21 × 9 × 9 × 21 × 21
= 15 752 961

15
When letters or numbers CAN be repeated, it is in fact the same number that is being
repeated; therefore, we can simplify the calculation using exponents.
For example, we have the digits 1; 3 and 5 and 7 to make a 4-digit code. How many different
codes can be made if digits can be repeated.
___ ___ ___ ___
Consider: How many digits are there that could go in position 1? (4) and position 2? (4)
position 3? (4) position 4? (4)
Therefore, the number of codes that can be made is: 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 256
But there is a shorter way of writing this: 4

Examples where repeating is not allowed:

Think of three people and in how many ways they can stand in a line.
There should be 6.

Consider the word CAT.

How many different words (they don’t have to be real) can be formed with these letters?
Using the fundamental counting principle:
First make dashes to represent the positions ____ ____ ____
How many letters are there that could go in position 1? (3 – the C or A or T)
How many letters are there that could go in position 2? (2, because one has already been
used in position 1)
How many letters are there that could go in position 3? (1, because two of them have
already been used in position 1 and 2)
Multiply. 3 × 2 × 1 = 6. There are 6 different ‘words’ that can be made with the letters C, A
and T.
Use this idea on the three people and see how it is also 3 × 2 × 1 = 6

16
An example with a longer word: SAVOURY
As there are SEVEN different letters, there are 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5 040.
There are 5 040 different ‘words’ that can be made from the 7 letters in the word, savoury.

How many ways could we order the letters of the alphabet?

26 × 25 × 24 × 23 × 22 × 21 × 20 … … … × 2 × 1
Important to notice in these examples - they all have something in common even though we
didn’t start with the same number.
Each one of them starts with the number of objects available and each successive number
being multiplied goes down one until we get to 1.
There is a function on the calculator that can assist us in doing these calculations quickly
and there is a special name for multiplying a list of numbers in this manner. It is called
factorial notation.
Definition: The product of a sequence of descending natural numbers.
For example, 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 and this is written as 4!
On the calculator, look for 𝑥!

Notice that it is a second function key.

All these different ways of ordering objects also has a special name – they are permutations.
Definition: An ordering of 𝑛 objects is a permutation. In general, the number of permutations
of 𝑛 distinct objects is 𝑛! = 𝑛 × (𝑛 − 1) × (𝑛 − 2) × (𝑛 − 3) … … × 3 × 2 × 1.

Further reading, listening or viewing activities related to this topic are available on the
following web links:
http://www.classzone.com/eservices/home/pdf/student/LA212AAD.pdf

http://learn.mindset.co.za/sites/default/files/resourcelib/emshare-topic-overview-
asset/Maths%2012-3%20A%20Guide%20to%20Counting%20and%20Probability.pdf

http://www.amesa.org.za/AMESA2014/Proceedings/papers/1%20hour%20workshops/8.%20
Desiree%20Timmet%20-%20The%20Counting%20principle.pdf

http://virtualnerd.com/algebra-2/probability-statistics/permutations-combinations/counting-
outcomes/fundamental-counting-principle-definition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZj5nrtgol0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsGmzMpIpD0
(using the calculator for factorial calculations)

17
Solving problems using the fundamental counting principle

How many permutations are possible using the word PASTOR

(6! = 720)

But what if the instruction changed to - how many different words can we make if the word
must start with ‘R’?
Draw the dashes and fill in the R on the first one as that must happen – there is no choice.

R ____ ____ ____ ____ ____

Now ask yourself how many letters are there that could go in the 1st position requiring a
letter?
5 – because the R has already been used
and position 2? (4) position 3? (3) position 4? (2) position 5? (1)

R __5__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__

∴ number of permutations: 5! = 120

Further examples using the same word:

How many different words can we make if the word must start with ‘R’ and end with ‘P’?
Draw your dashes and fill in the R on the first one and the P in the last position as that must
happen – there is no choice.

R ____ ____ ____ ____ P

How many letters are there that could go in the 1st position requiring a letter?
(4 – the R and P have already been used) and position 2? (3) position 3? (2) position 4? (1)

R __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__ P

∴ number of permutations: 4! = 24
Let’s look at a more unusual question – how many different words can we make if the word
must start with a consonant and end with a vowel?
Draw your dashes
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
The first and last letter have specific requirements and must therefore be considered first.
How many letters are there that could go in the 1st position requiring a consonant?
(4 – P, S, T or R)
How many letters are there that could go in the last position requiring a vowel? (2 – A or O)
__4__ ____ ____ ____ ____ __2__

18
Note that no matter which letters end up in those positions, TWO letters will now have been
used – one in position 1 and one in position 6.
How many letters are there that could go in the 1st position still requiring a letter (position 2)?
(4 as two are already accounted for)
How many letters are there that could go in the 2nd position requiring a letter (position 3)?(3)
How many letters are there that could go in the 3rd position requiring a letter (position 4)? (2)
How many letters are there that could go in the 4th position requiring a letter (position 5)? (1)
__4__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__ __2__
∴ number of permutations: 4 × 2 × 4! = 192 (4 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 × 2)
Note where the 4! Comes from – the middle four spaces. 4 × 2 was written first to cover the
specific requirements that were stated.

The next idea we are going to look at is when certain objects need to be grouped together.
For instance, to continue using this word, let’s use the idea of the vowels needing to be
together.
The question would therefore read as: how many different arrangements are possible if the
vowels must be next to each other?
A good way to imagine (and ensure) that the vowels stay together is to think about them
being tied together with an elastic band. The list of letters would then look as follows:

P S T R A O
It is like the vowels are one object, they must move together into a position.
How many objects do I have to move around? (5 because the vowels need to combine into
1)
However, there is an added complication – do the vowels have to be in the same position we
see them in now? No – they could change positions and still be next to each other!
So, inside the group of vowels there is 2! ways that they could be arranged.
It is a good idea to write this inside the group.
Make the dashes (only 5 as there are 5 objects).
____ ____ ____ ____ ____

How many letters are there that could go in the 1st position requiring a letter?
(5 – any one of the objects is acceptable) and position 2? (4) position 3? (3) position 4? (2)
position 5? (1)
Remember that one of those objects has some arrangements of its own so that needs to be
included in the calculation.
∴ total arrangements possible: 5! × 2! = 240

19
Let’s try the idea again but wanting all the consonants to be together.

How many objects do I have to move around? (3 because the consonants need to combine
into 1)
But remember the added complication – the consonants could change positions and still be
next to each other!
In how many ways could they be arranged inside their own little group? (4!)
Remember to write it inside the group.
Make the dashes (only 3 as there are 3 objects).
____ ____ ____

How many letters are there that could go in the 1st position requiring a letter?
(3 – any one of the objects is acceptable) and position 2? (2) position 3? (1)
Remember that one of those objects has some arrangements of its own so that needs to be
included in the calculation.
∴ total arrangements possible: 3! × 4! = 144

Example
Consider the word DAUGHTER.
a) How many arrangements can be made with this word?
b) How many arrangements can be made that start with a vowel?
c) What is the probability that the new word will start with a vowel?
Notes:
a) This should be straightforward. Make use of the dashes if you don’t find it easy.
Keep asking yourself, how many letters can possibly go into position 1? Then how
many will be left for position 2 and so on.
b) Make use of the dashes. First deal with the specific requirement of needing a vowel
in the front so the number of letters available for position 1 is now limited.
c) Note that in (a) you found the TOTAL possible ways with no restrictions and in (b)
you find the total ways with the vowel restriction. To find the probability you will need
to use these two totals.

a) 8! = 40 320 b) 3 × 7! = 15 120 c) = 0,375

Look at the final answer and check it looks reasonable. 3 of the 8 words are vowels so yes, 37,5%
looks about right.

20
Fully worked examples from past papers
Example 1
Seven cars, of different manufacturers, of which 3 are silver, are to be parked in a straight
line.
a) In how many different ways can ALL the cars be parked?
b) If the 3 silver cars must be parked next to each other, determine in how many
different ways the cars can be parked?
NOV 2014
Notes
(a) Use the dashes and consider how many options there are for each place
(b) The 3 silver cars must be together. Imagine them tied up and made into one. Think of
the new total number of objects but don’t forget that the 3 silver cars could also be arranged
in different ways.
Solution:
a) 7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5 040
b) Car 1 Car 2 Car 3 Car 4 [Silver Car 1 Silver Car 2 Silver Car 3]
[3!]
3! × 5! = 3 × 2 × 1 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 720

21
Example 2
A group of 3 South Africans, 2 Australians and 2 Englishmen are staying at the same hotel
while on holiday. Each person has his/her own room and the rooms are next to each other
in a straight corridor.
If the rooms are allocated at random, determine the probability that the 2 Australians will
have adjacent rooms and the Englishmen will also have adjacent rooms.
MAR 2017
Notice immediately that it is a probability question (underline it in an exam situation).
Therefore, you will need:
 Total possible arrangements with no restrictions
 Total possible arrangements with the restriction given
This will give the values used to find probability.
Continue using the dashes and remember to group together and think of the arrangements
inside the groups.
Solution:
Working:
n(S): 7! = 5 040
__7__ __6__ __5__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__
n(E): 5! × 2! × 2!
= 480 SA SA SA AUS AUS ENG ENG
2! 2!
__5__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__

5! × 2! × 2! 2
∴ 𝑃(𝐸) = = = 0,095
7! 21

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Example 3
A Banana Airways aeroplane has 6 seats in each row.
a) How many possible arrangements are there for 6 people to sit in a row of 6 seats?
b) Xoliswa, Anees and 4 other passengers sit in a certain row on a Banana Airways
flight. In how many different ways can these 6 passengers be seated if Xoliswa and
Anees must be seated next to each other?
c) Mary and 5 other passengers are to be seated in a certain row. If seats are allocated
at random, what is the probability that Mary will sit at the end of the row? MAR 2016

Notes
(a) A straightforward question
(b) Use the dashes and group Xoliswa and Anees together as well as remember that the
two of them can also be arranged in more than one way.
(c) Notice that it is a probability question (underline it in an exam situation).
Therefore, you will need:
 Total possible arrangements with no restrictions (already found in (a))
 Total possible arrangements with the restriction given
This will give the values used to find probability.
This question, however, has a different element to it – Mary could be on the left of the row
or the right of the row and still be at the end.
Consider: what do we do when there is more than one possibility? Think about tree
diagrams. (add the possibilities). Continue using the dashes
Solution:
a) 6! = 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 720

c) Number of ways Mary could be on the end:

__1__ __5__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__
(Mary)
But she could also be at the other end
__5__ __4__ __3__ __2__ __1__ __1__
(Mary)
∴ 1 × 5! + 5! × 1 = 240
∴ P(Mary will be on the end) = =

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Example
Nametso may choose DVD’s from 3 categories as listed below:

a) Nametso must choose one DVD from the Drama category. What is the probability
that she will choose Midnight?
b) How many different selections are possible if her selection must include ONE
drama, ONE romance and ONE comedy?
c) Calculate the probability that she will have ‘Last Hero’ and ‘Laughing Dragon’ as part
of her selection in (b)?
MAR 2015
Notes
(a) Basic probability
(b) Basic use of the fundamental counting principle BUT you will not use factorial notation
as there are only 3 options.
Use the dashes.
(c) This could be calculated using basic probability principles but to practice the
fundamental counting principle, that method should be used.
Notice that it is a probability question.
Therefore, you will need:
 Total possible arrangements with no restrictions (already found in (b))
 Total possible arrangements with the restriction given
Use the dashes.
Solution:
a)

b) __5__ __4__ __3__

5 × 4 × 3 = 60
c) __1__ __4__ __1__
(LH) (LD)
× ×
∴ P(LH and LD) = =

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Example
The digits 1 – 7 are used to create a 4-digit code to enter a locked room. How many
different codes are possible if the digits may not be repeated and the code must be an even
number bigger than 5 000? NOV 2016

Notes
This scenario creates more than one possibility, so addition will be required.
(There is more than one method of doing this, so you may want to explore another route
yourself).
How many digits can be in the 1st position? (3 – 5, 6 and 7 will make a number greater than
5 000)
How many digits can be in the last position? (3 – 2, 4 and 6 will make it an even number).
But, note that 6 is on both lists.
This can be addressed by considering 3 possibilities: ending in 2, ending in 4 and ending in
6.
The case of the number ending in 6 will affect how many digits are available to start the
number. Use of dashes.
Solution:
Ending in 2: Start with the 1 possibility in position 4, then
__3__ __5__ __4__ __1__ consider the 3 possibilities in position 1 before
filling in the number of digits that would be left over
Ending in 4: for the middle two positions (after 2 have been
__3__ __5__ __4__ __1__ used there are 5 then 4 leftover).
When 6 is in the last place, there are only 2 digits
Ending in 6: that can be in position 1 but there are still 5 and 4
__2__ __5__ __4__ __1__ digits left for the middle positions.

Number of different codes: (3 × 5 × 4 × 1) + (3 × 5 × 4 × 1) + (2 × 5 × 4 × 1)

= 60 + 60 + 40 = 160

Further reading, listening or viewing activities related to this topic are available on the
following web links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guvaQtcVlM4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPdYKStm7Nw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw-Oaumh2Ww

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aegBgqk5jeg

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