Lesson 4

PROBABILITY

Probability (The study of Randomness)

The measure of how likely an event is.

With probability: - Measurements of uncertainty

- Allows intelligence guess about future
- Helps to quantify risk
- Predicts outcomes

Basic Terms:

1. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random phenomenon

2. Event: Any set of outcomes of interest (results of an experiment)
3. Probability of an event: The relative frequency of this set of outcomes
over an infinite number of trials
4. Outcome- Result of a Particular trial
5. Pr(A): Is the probability of event A
6. Experiment: A process of data collection.
7. Trials : Act of an experiment

Experiment Outcomes
Head

Toss a coin
or

Tail
Sample space
E,g Probability of Event A

The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by
the total number of possible outcomes.
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 𝑐𝑎n o𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Thus: P (A) =
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Properties
- The probability ranges between 0 and 1
- If an outcome cannot occur, its probability is 0
- If an outcome is sure, it has a probability of 1
- The sum of probability of mutually exclusive outcomes is equal to 1
P (M) +P (F) =1

Experiment 1.

A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of each outcome? What is
the probability of rolling an even number? Of rolling an odd number?

Solution…………

Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Probability:

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 1 1
𝑃(1) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6
 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 2 1
𝑃(2) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 3 1
𝑃(3) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 4 1
𝑃(4) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 5 1
𝑃(5) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎 6 1
𝑃(6) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 3 1

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 6 2

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 3 1

𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑) = = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑑𝑒𝑠 6 2

The experiment illustrates the difference between an outcome and an event. A

single outcome of this experiment is rolling a 1, or rolling a 2, or rolling a 3, etc.
Rolling an even number (2, 4 or 6) is an event, and also rolling an odd number (1,
3 or 5) is also an event.

Experiment 2.

A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow marbles. If a single marble
is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability of choosing a red marble?
A green marble, a blue marble? A yellow marble?

Solution……………

Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are red, green, blue and
yellow.
Probability:

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 6 3

𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑) = = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 22 11
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 5
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 22

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒

𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤 3
𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 22

The outcome in this even are not equally likely to occur. You are more likely to
choose a blue marble than any other color. You are least likely to choose a yellow
marble.

Questions and Solutions

𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐸
P (E) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠

Question 1

The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood,
65 have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a
person from this group is selected at random, what is the probability that this
person has O blood type?

Solution…

group frequency
A 50
B 65
O 70
AB 15

𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑂 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑
𝑃(𝑂) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦

70
𝑃(𝑂) = = 0.35
200

Question 2

Which of these numbers cannot be a probability?

 a. -0.00001
b. 0.5
c. 1.001
d. 0
e. 1
f. 20%
Solution…..

A probability is always greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1,

hence only a. and c. above cannot represent probabilities.

Types of Events

1. Simple events- One outcome in the sample space; a possible outcome of a

random circumstance.
2. Compound events: Is the combination of two or more than two simple
events. E.g. Two coins are tossed simultaneously
3. Mutually exclusive events: Two events are mutually exclusive event
when they cannot occur at the same time. e.g if we flip a coin it can only
show a head OR a tail, not both.
4. Independent events: Means is that the probability that one event occurs
in no way affects the probability of the other event occurring.
5. Complementary events: Complementary events are two outcomes of an
event that are the only two possible outcomes. This is like flipping a coin
and getting heads or tails. Of course, there are no other options, so these
events are complementary.
6. Dependent Events: When two events are said to be dependent, the
probability of one event occurring influences the likelihood of the other
event.
 For example, if you were to draw a two cards from a deck of 52 cards. If
on your first draw you had an ace and you put that aside, the probability of
drawing an ace on the second draw is greatly changed because you drew
an ace the first time. Let's calculate these different probabilities to see
what's going on.
There are 4 Aces in a deck of 52 cards

On your first draw, the probability of getting an ace is given by:

If we don't return this card into the deck, the probability of drawing an ace on
the second pick is given by
Probability Rules/Law

1. Multiplication Rule (Independent events)

When multiple events occur, if the outcome of one event DOES NOT affect the
outcome of the other events, they are called independent events.

Say, a die is rolled twice. The outcome of the first roll doesn’t affect the second
outcome. These two are independent events.

When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring
is:

𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)

Examples of independent events:

 - A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of
landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.

Sol….
1
P(head)=
2
1
P(3) =
6

Therefore P (head and 3) = P (head) × P (3)

1 1
=2×6
1
= 12

- Say, a coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting two

consecutive tails?
1
Probability of getting a tail in one toss=
2
1 1 1
The coin is tossed twice. So = × = is the answer.
2 2 4

Here’s the verification of the above answer with the help of sample space.

When a coin is tossed twice, the sample space is:

{(𝐻, 𝐻), (𝐻, 𝑇), (𝑇, 𝐻), (𝑇, 𝑇)}.

Our desired event is (𝑇, 𝑇) whose occurrence is only once out of four possible outcomes and
1
hence, our answer
4

- Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black
pens. If a pen is drawn at random from the pack, replaced and the process
repeated 2 more times, what is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and
1 black pen?
Solution

Here, total number of pens = 9

4
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen =
9

4
Probability of drawing another blue pen=
9

3
Probability of drawing 1 black pen =
9

4 4 3 16
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = × × =
9 9 9 243

2. Addition rule (Mutually Exclusive events)

Mutually exclusive events are those where the occurrence of one indicates the
non-occurrence of the other

OR

When two events cannot occur at the same time, they are considered mutually
exclusive.

Note: For a mutually exclusive event, (𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) = 𝟎.

When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B
will occur is the sum of the probability of each event. For example: when tossing
a coin, the result can either be heads or tails but cannot be both.

Formula for Addition rule (Mutually Exclusive events):(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩) = 𝐏𝐫(𝑨) +

𝐏𝐫(𝑩)

Examples:

1. Single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a

5? Solution:
 1
P (2)=
6

1
P (5)
6

Therefore: P(2 or 5)= 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(5)

1 1
+
6 6

1
=
3

Example 2: A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are drawn
at random from the pack, NOT replaced and then another pen is drawn. What is
the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?

Solution:

𝟒
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen=
𝟗
𝟑
Probability of drawing another blue pen=
𝟖
𝟑
Probability of drawing 1 black pen=
𝟕
𝟒 𝟑 𝟑 𝟏
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen= × × =
𝟗 𝟖 𝟕 𝟏𝟒

Let’s consider another example:

Example 4: What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen

consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.
4 1
Probability of drawing a king= =
52 13

After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.

4
Probability of drawing a queen=
51
 1 4
Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is × =
13 51
4
663

If not mutually exclusive: (Compound probability)

Compound probability is when the problem statement asks for the likelihood of
the occurrence of more than one outcome.

Pr(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = Pr(𝐴) + Pr(𝐵) − Pr(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

where A and B are any two events.

P (A or B) is the probability of the occurrence of at least one of the events.

P (A and B) is the probability of the occurrence of both A and B at the same

time.

Example:

1. From the records at an STC, 4 girls had HIV, 4 other girls had gonorrhea
while 2 girls have both gonorrhea and HIV. What is the probability that
any girl selected will have.

ii. HIV only

iii. HIV or Gonorrhea

 Sol...
4 2
i. Pr(HIV) =
10 5
ii. Pr(HIV or Gono)= Pr(𝐻𝐼𝑉) + Pr(𝐺𝑜𝑛𝑜) − Pr (𝐻𝐼𝑉 𝑜𝑟 𝐺𝑜𝑛𝑜)
4 4 2
= + −
10 10 10
6 3
= =
10 5
3. Consider the example of finding the probability of selecting a black card or a
6 from a deck of 52 cards.

Solution:

We need to find out (𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑟 6)

26
Probability of selecting a black card=
52

4
Probability of selecting a 6 =
52

1
Probability of selecting both a black card and a 6 =
26

Thus Probability of selecting a black card or six :

(𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑟 6) = 𝑃 (𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘) + P(6) − Pr(𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑛𝑑 6)

26 4 1
= + −
52 52 26
30 1
= −
52 26
28
=
52
7
=
13

3. Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur, when another
event is known to occur or to have occurred. E.g. Probability of event A given
event B. Conditional probability deals with further defining dependence of events
by looking at probability of an event given that some other event first occurs.

Formula: (𝐴/𝐵) = Pr(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

Pr(𝐵)

Example: On the “Information for the Patient” label of a certain antidepressant,

it is claimed that based on some clinical trials, there is a 14% chance of
experiencing sleeping problems known as insomnia. 26% chance of experiencing
headache, and there is a 5% chance of experiencing both side effects. Suppose
that the patient experiences insomnia; what is the probability that the patient will
also experience headache?

Make:

A= Headache

B= Insomnia

𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐵)

0.05
=
0.14

= 0.357

Example 2: In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60% of the
students study math. What is the probability of a student studying science given
he/she is already studying math?

Solution

P (M and S) = 0.40

P (M) = 0.60

Contingency Table

A table showing the distribution of one variable in rows and another in columns,
used to study the correlation between the two variables.
Example of Using a Contingency Table to Determine Probability

The following Contingency Table shows the number of Females and Males who
each have a given eye color. Note that, for example, the table show that 20
Females have Black eyes and that 10 Males have Gray eyes. Also notice that the
Table shows the totals. We have 85 Females in the dataset. We have 82 Males in
the dataset. We have a total of 167 People in the dataset. Finally, this table also
shows the totals for eye color. For example, 45 People have Black eyes.

Questions:

1. Given this Contingency Table, what is the Probability that a randomly

selected person will have Black eyes?

The Table shows us that 45 People have Black eyes out of the total 167
people who were part of this data.

Therefore, (𝑷𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑩𝒍𝒂𝒄𝒌 𝒆𝒚𝒆𝒔) = 𝟒𝟓

= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕 (𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟕%)
𝟏𝟔𝟕
2. Given this Contingency Table, what is the Probability that a randomly
selected Female will have Black eyes? In other words, what is the probability
of a person having black eyes GIVEN that they are female?

The Table shows us that 20 Females have black eyes out of the 85 total females
in the dataset.
𝟐𝟎
𝑷(𝒃𝒍𝒂𝒄𝒌 𝒆𝒚𝒆𝒔 |𝐟𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐞 ) = =. 𝟐𝟑𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟑. 𝟓%
𝟖𝟓
The above states that the probability of a person having black eye GIVEN that
they are female is 20/85.

3. Given this Contingency Table, what is the Probability that a randomly

selected person will have Blue eyes OR will be Male?

This question deals with a probability concept called the “OR”. There is
a formula for OR that is:

𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 𝑨𝑵𝑫 𝑩)

In this example, we are looking at two things: we are looking at BLUE EYES
and MALE

So, the question asked is:

𝑷(𝑩𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒆𝒚𝒆𝒔 𝑶𝑹 𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒆)

= 𝑷(𝑩𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒆𝒚𝒆𝒔) + 𝑷(𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒆) − 𝑷(𝑩𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒆𝒚𝒆𝒔 𝑨𝑵𝑫 𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒆)

Using the Table, we see that:

22
(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠) =
167
 82
(𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒) =
167

12
(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒) =
167

Therefore:

𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠 𝑂𝑅 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒)

= 𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠) + 𝑃(𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒) − 𝑃(𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒)
22 82 12
= + −
167 167 167
92
=
167
 . 55 𝑜𝑟 55%

Common Question: Why do we subtract the probability of Male and blue eyes?
The answer is that when we count up all the males and then we count up all the
people with blue eyes, there is some overlap because some males have blue eyes.
This means we counted them twice and so we have to subtract the extra count.

1. Using the Contingency Table, what is the probability of selecting a Female

AND a Gray eye person?

The question here is asking for (𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑦 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠)

The AND also has a formula:

(𝐴 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝐵) = (𝐴 | B) × (𝐵)

NOTE: This is read as probability of A GIVEN B times the probability of B.

When A and B are INDEPENDENT then

(𝐴 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝐵) = (𝐴 |B) × (𝐵) = (𝐴) × (𝐵)

Here:
10
(𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 |Gray eyes) =
20
Why? If you know that the person has Gray eye (given gray tells you this) then
10 of the 20 gray eyed people are female.
20
(𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑦 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠) =
167
Therefore:

(𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑦 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠) = (𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 |Gray eyes) × (𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑦 𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑠)

10 20
= × = .5 × .12 = .06 or about 6%
20 167
OR

You can also do this directly from the table without the formula:

P( Female AND Gray eyes) = 10/167 = .06 or about 6%

Example 2

Suppose a study of speeding violations and drivers who use cell phones
produced the following fictional data:

Speeding No speeding Total

violation in the violation in
last year the last year
Cell phone user 25 280 305
Not a cell 45 405 450
phone user
Total 70 685 755

NB: The total number of people in the sample is 755. The row totals are 305
and 450. The column totals are 70 and 685. Notice that 305 + 450 = 755 and 70
+ 685 = 755.

Calculate the following probabilities using the table.

1. Find P(Person is a car phone user).

 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒉𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟑𝟎𝟓
=
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒊𝒏 𝒔𝒕𝒖𝒅𝒚 𝟕𝟓𝟓

2. Find P(person had no violation in the last year).

𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒉𝒂𝒅 𝒏𝒐 𝒗𝒊𝒐𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝟔𝟖𝟓
=
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒊𝒏 𝒔𝒕𝒖𝒅𝒚 𝟕𝟓𝟓

3. Find P(Person had no violation in the last year AND was a car phone
user).
𝟐𝟖𝟎
𝟕𝟓𝟓
4. Find P(Person is a car phone user OR person had no violation in the last
year).
305 685 280 710
( + )− =
755 755 755 755

5. Find P(Person is a car phone user GIVEN person had a violation in the
last year).
𝟐𝟓 (The sample space is reduced to the number of persons who had a
𝟕𝟎
violation.)

6. Find P(Person had no violation last year GIVEN person was not a car
phone user)

𝟒𝟎𝟓
𝟒𝟓𝟎
The sample space is reduce to the number of persons who were not car phone
users
Probability Tree Diagrams

Calculating probabilities can be hard, sometimes we add them,

sometimes we multiply them, and often it is hard to figure out what
to do ... tree diagrams to the rescue!

Here is a tree diagram for the toss of a coin:

There are two "branches" (Heads and Tails)

• The probability of each

branch is written on the
branch
• The outcome is written at
the end of the branch

We can extend the tree diagram to two tosses of a coin:

How do we calculate the overall probabilities?

• We multiply probabilities along the branches

• We add probabilities down columns
Now we can see such things as:

• The probability of "Head, Head" is 0.5×0.5 = 0.25

• All probabilities add to 1.0 (which is always a good check)
• The probability of getting at least one Head from
two tosses is 0.25+0.25+0.25 = 0.75
• ... and more

That was a simple example using independent events (each toss of

a coin is independent of the previous toss), but tree diagrams are
really wonderful for figuring out dependent events (where an event
depends on what happens in the previous event) like this example:

Example: Soccer Game

You are off to soccer, and love being the Goalkeeper, but that
depends who is the Coach today:

• with Coach Sam the probability of being Goalkeeper is 0.5

• with Coach Alex the probability of being Goalkeeper is 0.3

Sam is Coach more often ... about 6 out of every 10 games (a probability of
0.6).

So, what is the probability you will be a Goalkeeper today?

Let's build the tree diagram. First we show the two possible
coaches: Sam or Alex:

The probability of getting Sam is 0.6, so the probability of Alex

must be 0.4 (together the probability is 1)

Now, if you get Sam, there is 0.5 probability of being Goalie (and
0.5 of not being Goalie):

If you get Alex, there is 0.3 probability of being Goalie (and 0.7 not):

The tree diagram is complete, now let's calculate the overall

probabilities. This is done by multiplying each probability along
the "branches" of the tree.
Here is how to do it for the "Sam, Yes" branch:

(When we take the 0.6 chance of Sam being coach and include the
0.5 chance that Sam will let you be Goalkeeper we end up with a
0.3 chance.)

But we are not done yet! We haven't included Alex as Coach:

An 0.4 chance of Alex as Coach, followed by an 0.3

chance gives 0.12. Now we add the column:

0.3 + 0.12 = 0.42 probability of being a

Goalkeeper today (That is a 42% chance)

Check

One final step: complete the calculations and make sure they add to 1:
 0.3 + 0.3 + 0.12 + 0.28 = 1

Examples

1. Research has shown that 60% of new business ventures are

started by graduates, while the remaining 40% are started by
non-graduates. Also, 80% of new business ventures started by
graduates are successful, while only 65% of those started by
non-graduates are successful

i. Represent the information using a probability

diagram (tree diagram)
ii. What is the probability that the business venture will
succeed whether the owner is a graduate or not?
iii. What is the probability that non-graduates will succeed?

2. Parveen travels to school either by bicycle or by bus.

The probability that, on any day, she will travel by bicycle is 0.7
When she travels by bicycle, the probability that she will be late for school
is 0.2
When she travels by bus, the probability that she will be late for school is
0.1

i. Draw a tree diagram

ii. Calculate the probability that , on a randomly choosen day,
Parveen will not be late for school

Venn Diagram
Set: Is a collection of things
e.g. The items you wear is a set: these include shoes , socks, hat , shirt, pants ,
and so on.
One can write sets inside curly brackets like this:
{𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑠, 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑒𝑠, 𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠, 𝑤𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠, 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑡𝑠, … … . . }

Explaining Venn Diagram using Ten Best Friend Example

A set of ten best friends:

{𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑥, 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑟, 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑦, 𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑤, 𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛, 𝑓𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑠, 𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑛, ℎ𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟, 𝑖𝑟𝑎, 𝑗𝑎𝑑𝑒}
Each friend is an element (or member) of the set

Lets say that alex, casey, drew and hunter play Soccer.
𝑆𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑟 = {𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑥, 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑦, 𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑤, ℎ𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟}
And casey, drew and jade play Tennis
𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 = {𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑦, 𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑤, 𝑗𝑎𝑑𝑒}

We can put their names in two separate circles:

Soccer Tennis

alex, casey, casey,

drew, drew, jade
hunter

1. Union (“OR”)
This is called a “Union” of sets and has the separate symbol ∪:
𝑆𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑟 𝑈 𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 = {𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑥, 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑦, 𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑤, ℎ𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟, 𝑗𝑎𝑑𝑒}
NB: not everyone is in that set……. only friends that play Soccer or Tennis (or
both)

Vinn Diagram

2. Intersection
“Intersection” is when you must be in BOTH sets.
For the example of two friends:
It means they play both Soccer AND Tennis…… which is casey and drew
The special symbol for Intersection is an upside down “∪” like this “∩”
And this is how its written:
𝑆𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑟 ∩ 𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 = {𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑦, 𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑤}
Vinn Diagram

Intersection of two sets

3. Complement
And there is a special way of saying “everything that is not”, and it is called
“complement”.
It is shown or the symbol of complement is “C” like this:
𝑺𝒄
Which means “everything that is NOT in S”, like this:

𝑆𝑐

𝑆 𝑐 = {𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑟, 𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛, 𝑓𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑠, 𝑔𝑙𝑒𝑛, 𝑖𝑟𝑎, 𝑗𝑎𝑑𝑒}

Notes:
− ∪ 𝑖𝑠 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
− ∩ 𝑖𝑠 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
−𝑆 𝑐 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐴: 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑆