Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

Introduction
The Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act (EMCPA),
ushered in a new risk-based approach to Ontario’s emergency
management programs.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) assists by providing

a tool that can be used to assess risk based on potential consequences
and frequencies.

The purpose is to identify which hazards should be the focus of

emergency management programs at a particular point in time.

Systematic risk assessments can shift the focus of programs from

being solely reactive to being pro-active. A pro-active approach to
emergency management can result in a more disaster-resilient Ontario.
Purpose of a HIRA
Reasons why a HIRA is useful to the emergency management
profession:
• Helps emergency management professionals prepare for the worst
and/or most likely risks;
• Allows for the creation of exercises, training programs, and plans
based on the most likely scenarios;
• Saves time by isolating hazards that can not occur in the designated
area;
• It can help to reduce financial costs which can then be redirected
towards other emergency management projects.
• Helps your program to become proactive rather than solely reactive.
2012 HIRA Report

The 2012 HIRA Report and Workbook can be used as a guide for
ministries, communities and First Nations to develop and maintain their
own HIRAs if they so choose.

The 2012 Provincial Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA)

Report:
• Founded on a comprehensive scientific study of the hazards that have or could
impact Ontario

• Serves as a reference document for the provincial level; however, it is scalable

• Assessed risk for natural, technological and man-made hazards in accordance with
the definition of an emergency in the Emergency Management and Civil Protection
Act
HIRA Requirements

The revised HIRA methodology was required to:

• be risk-based;
• assess different types of hazards (natural, technological and human caused)
• allow for the addition of currently unknown and evolving hazards in subsequent
revisions;
• incorporate both qualitative and quantitative information;
• incorporate as much scientific information as possible;
• be applicable to a range of event consequences and frequencies;
• be scalable so that it can be used at both a provincial and a municipal level;
• to be easily understood by a diverse group of people with different professional
backgrounds.
Revised HIRA
Some of the changes from the previous HIRA are:

• Updated hazard narratives and risk information

• Addition of 3 new hazards:
• cyber attack
• geomagnetic storm
• natural space object crash

• Expansion of other hazards

• New Methodology

• Risk rating of the hazards

Natural Hazards
• Agricultural and Food Emergency • Geomagnetic Storm
- Farm Animal Disease • Hail
- Food Emergency • Human Health Emergency
- Plant Disease and Pest Infestation - Epidemic
• Drinking Water Emergency - Pandemic
• Drought/Low Water • Hurricane
• Earthquake • Land Subsidence
• Erosion • Landslide
• Extreme Temperatures • Lightning
- Heat Wave • Natural Space Object
- Cold Wave Crash
• Flood • Snowstorm/Blizzard
- Riverine Flood • Tornado
- Seiche • Windstorm
- Storm Surge
- Urban Flood
• Fog
• Forest/Wildland Fire
• Freezing Rain
Technological Hazards
• Building/Structural Collapse
• Critical Infrastructure Failure
• Dam Failure
• Energy Emergency (Supply)
• Explosion/Fire
• Hazardous Materials Incident/Spills
- Fixed Site Incident
- Transportation Incident
• Human-Made Space Object Crash
• Mine Emergency
• Nuclear Facility Emergency
• Oil/Natural Gas Emergency
• Radiological Emergency
• Transportation Emergency
- Air Emergency
- Marine Emergency
- Rail Emergency
- Road Emergency
Human-Caused Hazards

• Civil Disorder
• Cyber Attack
• Sabotage
• Special Event
• Terrorism/CBRNE
• War and International Emergency
HIRA Steps
HIRA Methodology

• The core of most risk assessment methodologies is:

Risk = Frequency * Consequence

• After consultation with the scientific and risk assessment

communities, a third variable was added:

Risk = Frequency * Consequence * Changing Risk

HIRA Method - Frequency

Frequency Category Percent Chance Description

1 Rare Less than a 1% chance of Hazards with return periods
occurrence in any year. >100 years.
2 Very Unlikely Between a 1- 2% chance of Occurs every 50 – 100 years
occurrence in any year. and includes hazards that have
not occurred but are reported
to be more likely to occur in
the near future.
3 Unlikely Between a 2 – 10% chance Occurs every 20 – 50 years
of occurrence in any year.
4 Probable Between a 10 – 50% chance Occurs every 5 – 20 years
of occurrence in any year.
5 Likely Between a 50 – 100% Occurs >5 years.
chance of occurrence in any
year.
6 Almost 100% chance of occurrence The hazard occurs annually.
Certain in any year.
HIRA Method - Consequence
Consequence is divided into six categories based on recommended practices:

• Social Impacts

• Property Damage

• Critical Infrastructure Failures

• Environmental Damage

• Business/Financial Impact

• Psychosocial Impact

The consequence categories in this HIRA methodology are a scale of impact, rather than
a prioritization. Therefore, the same value in two categories does not mean that the
consequences of the two are equal and interchangeable.
Changing Risk
• Hazards are NOT static

• The frequency and consequence can be influenced by factors such

as mitigation actions and climate change. Changing Risk helps to
account for these changes

Changing Risk = Change in Frequency + Change in Vulnerability

Level of Risk

Level of Risk Description Hazards

>50 Extreme Flood, Forest/Wildland Fire, Freezing Rain, Hazardous Materials
Incident, Human Health Emergency, Snowstorm/Blizzard, Tornado
41 – 50 Very High Drinking Water Emergency, Geomagnetic Storm, Oil/Natural Gas
Emergency, Terrorism/CBRNE
31 – 40 High Agricultural and Food Emergency, Critical Infrastructure Failure,
Drought/Low Water, Nuclear Facility Emergency
21 – 30 Moderate Civil Disorder, Cyber Attack, Earthquake, Human-Made Space
Object Crash, Landslide, Transportation Emergency, Windstorm
11 – 20 Low Building/Structural Collapse, Dam Failure, Explosion/Fire, Extreme
Temperatures, Hurricane, Natural Space Object Crash, Radiological
Emergency
<10 Very Low Energy Emergency (Supply), Erosion, Fog, Hail, Land Subsidence,
Lightning, Mine Emergency, Sabotage, Special Event, War and
International Emergency
Next Steps
Vulnerable Groups

• Some people may be more vulnerable to certain

hazards than others and are more likely to suffer
from the negative impacts of a hazard

• Not all people who identify themselves as belonging

to one of these groups may be at an increased risk
during an emergency, it depends on factors such as
the individual’s specific situation, the type of hazard,
etc.

• Assessing vulnerability is a key consideration in

planning and it can assist in mitigation action
decision-making
Next Steps Continued

Mitigation Actions

• Mitigation is defined as “actions taken to reduce the adverse

impacts of an emergency or disaster” (EMO, 2011).

• A HIRA is only one part of a comprehensive emergency

management program.

• Once a HIRA has been done, attempts must be made to reduce

risks, beginning with the hazards identified as having extreme and
very high levels of risk.
Thank you!

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