Anexos An approach and preliminary model

6.4. An approach and preliminary model of integrating ecological

and economic constraints of environmental quality
in the Guayas River estuary, Ecuador

Environmental Science & Policy 1 (1998) 271±288

Robert R. Twilleya *, Robert R. Gottfriedb, Victor H. Rivera-Monroya, Wanqiao Zhanga,

Mariano Montaño Armijosc, Alejandro Boderod
aUniversity of Southwestern Louisiana, Department of Biology, Lafayette LA 70504, USA
bThe University of the South, Department of Economics, Sewanee TN 37383-1000, USA
cEscuela Superior Politéécnica del Littoral, Instituto de QuíÂmica, Guayaquil, Ecuador
dProyecto de Manejo de Recursos Costeros, Edificio MAB, Piso 20, Guayaquil, Ecuador

Abstract

We describe conceptual and simulation models of land use within the intertidal zone of
the Guayas River estuary to quantify the contribution of mangrove wetlands to
maintaining environmental quality of a tropical estuary. The goal of this exercise is to
demonstrate the important consideration of ecological constraints in determining
economic and management decisions; and how modeling can be used to quantify
impacts of land use such as loss of mangrove wetlands on environmental quality. Our
conceptual model treats solar energy, river flow, and tides as forcing functions that
control the properties of estuarine ecosystems, but also describes market forces and
cultural policies as constraints on properties of socioeconomic systems. The controversy
of coastal resource management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of
shrimp pond construction and management as negative feedbacks to the environmental
quality of the Guayas River estuary. Unique oceanographic processes and land use
changes contribute to complex issues of water and habitat quality in this tropical
estuary, the largest estuarine complex on the Pacific coast of South America. A dynamic
box model was developed for the estuary and calibrated with data collected from a 14
month survey of water quality parameters throughout the estuary. Scenarios included
conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds in three regions of the estuary, and the
construction of a dam by varying three different rates of river discharge at 100, 50 and
10 % of 1989 base flow. Good water quality is maintained by the low residence time of
water in the estuary (11 d) because of seasonally high river flow and tidal exchange.
With a 90 % reduction of mangrove forests in the estuary caused by shrimp pond
construction, total nitrogen concentrations increased 5 fold. However, as river discharge

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concentrations to 250 µM. Increases in nitrogen concentrations were higher in the upper
decreased to 10 %, the same construction caused a 60 fold increase in nitrogen

estuary region, with much less change in the lower estuary. Thus the sensitivity of
environmental quality to changes in land use in the intertidal and upland zone are linked
to the hydrography of the estuary and is site specific. In the future, the combinations of
these ecological models together with economic analyses of the goods and services of
mangroves may provide better techniques to evaluate the economic impacts of specific
coastal zone management decisions.

1. Introduction

Estuaries have diverse ecological functions that provide goods and services to regional
and global economies including commercial (both mariculture and trawl operations) and
sport fisheries (Costanza et al., 1997). Conflicts of sustaining these economic fisheries
demonstrate how land use decisions need to include the direct and indirect values of
natural resources such as wetlands (Farber and Costanza, 1987; Costanza et al., 1989;
Dixon, 1989). In many coastal regions throughout the tropics, land use decisions in
estuaries are favoring the expansion of shrimp mariculture, usually at the expense of
natural resources, such as mangroves. Yet, these decisions fail to include the
opportunity costs of their potential impacts on the habitat and water quality functions of
estuarine eco- systems by improper land use of the intertidal and adjacent landscape. In
addition, opportunity costs associated with the environmental quality of estuaries have
to include the river basin to include many complex interactions of land use activities in
the watershed (Gottfried et al., 1996). The goods and services of tropical estuaries
depend on diverse habitats such as seagrasses, mangroves, benthos, and planktonic
com- munities, which are located within the immediate boundary of the coastal zone.
The environmental quality of these communities is also influenced by upland
watersheds and offshore coastal processes that are coupled by rivers and tides,
respectively, to the estuary. Specific types of land use practices over large spatial scales
can have significant impacts on the environmental quality of an estuary. And the
response of estuaries to these landscape scale changes in the tropics can vary depending
on climate, geomorphology and oceanographic conditions of a region. Valuation
methods must be able to account for the relative constraints of ecological and economic
processes on sustainable management at different configurations of land use across
diverse coastal landforms (Repetto, 1992). These methods must be able to identify the
negative and positive feedbacks of land use decisions across appropriately defined
regional scales that encompass the unique value of estuarine ecosystems. The properties
of estuarine ecosystems are deter-mined by geomorphology and geophysical
characteristics of the coastal zone, including river discharge from upland watersheds
(with nutrients and suspended sediments) and processes of the coastal ocean (Fig. 1; see
Day et al., 1989). Groups of specific types of estuarine ecosystems can be classified into
environmental settings depending on the balance of river discharge, tides, winds, and
regional geomorphology (Odum and Copeland, 1972; Mann, 1975; Welsh et al., 1982;
Thom, 1982, 1984; Kjerfve, 1989). Ecosystem properties include the structure,
function, and relative spatial distribution of pelagic, benthic, and intertidal communities
(including mangroves) of an estuary. The diversity and coupling of processes among
these habitats determines the patterns of productivity, trophic food webs, and nutrient
cycles that are characteristic of estuaries in a specific type of environmental setting. For

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instance, the structure and function of mangroves have been associated with specific
types of environmental settings ranging from deltas to carbonate platforms (see reviews
by Twilley et al., 1996; Twilley, 1997a). Significance of ecological processes such as

Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the forcing functions of ecological and economic processes that
determine management decisions in coastal environments

primary productivity, refugia, nutrient cycling, sedimentation, and detritus export can be
associated with a particular type of environmental setting, which allows generic
evaluations of specific site conditions. Tides couple the ecological processes of the
intertidal zone such as mangroves with structure and function of pelagic and benthic
communities within tropical estuaries. As a result of these environmental constraints
and ecological processes, mangroves provide goods and services (functions) of interest
to humans including habitat quality, water quality, shoreline protection, aesthetics and
biodiversity (Twilley, 1997a, b; Ewel et al., 1998). These functions can contribute either
directly or indirectly to the economic value of the estuary and surrounding landscape.
Shrimp ponds are artificial ecosystems located in the estuarine drainage area, either
within the intertidal zone, thereby replacing mangroves, or just inland of intertidal
vegetation. The ecosystem properties of shrimp ponds are controlled in part by the
environmental quality of the estuary, since water is pumped from the estuary to the
ponds, and also by subsidies in nutrients and feed provided by management operations.
Good water quality improves the yield of shrimp and influences the intensity of pond
operations. Also, since waters of shrimp ponds are returned back to the estuary,
ecological processes of ponds (as influenced by pond management) will influence the
environmental quality of the estuary. Ponds are managed by decisions such as rates and
types of fertilization, feed inputs and water exchange that cause these ecosystems to
acquire attributes different from those of the estuary. These attributes of ponds provide
goods and services of more specific value to humans such as elevated yields of
monoculture shrimp communities. These goods and services are referred to as
engineered resources in comparison to those services of natural resources (Fig. 1).

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Although the services of shrimp ponds are heavily controlled by the socioeconomic
system rather than the ecological processes of an estuary; the productivity of shrimp
ponds is inextricably linked to the environmental quality of the estuary (including the
intertidal and upland watersheds, and offshore processes), which is constrained by the
environmental setting (Fig. 1). Our conceptual model (Fig. 1) treats solar energy, river
flow, and tides as forcing functions that control the properties of estuarine ecosystems;
but also includes socioeconomic constraints, such as international markets, political
processes, exchange rates, and monetary and trade policies. The conceptual model
argues that ecological and socioeconomic forcing functions determine the value of
mangroves and shrimp ponds thereby controlling coastal zone management decisions
(Fig. 1). The goods and services of mangroves, such as habitat and water quality,
receive no explicit value in the conceptual model (the same as occurs in society).
Mangroves are valued indirectly in terms of their contribution to shrimp pond profits by
providing goods and services at no costs to the industry. Profits associated with shrimp
farming are generated by the difference between income from shrimp yields, and costs
associated with pond operation. The level of shrimp production and operation costs,
such as dredging, construction, pumping, fertilization, and land (authorizations), depend
somewhat on the environmental quality of the estuary (Twilley, 1989). Mangroves and
tides provide the shrimp industry with clean water and productive habitats that enhance
wild post larvae supply and shrimp yields in ponds. With the loss of free services
provided by natural resources, the costs of shrimp production increases, such as
providing post larvae from hatcheries, dredging to remove sediment, and pumping to
control eutrophication. This conceptual model emphasizes the potential impacts of
negative feedbacks from management decisions on the natural resources that can
decrease potential profits of the shrimp industry. Impacts of shrimp pond operations are
linked to the dependence of this industry on sustaining the environmental quality of
estuarine ecosystems (Fig. 1).
This review describes the ecological linkages between shrimp ponds and
mangroves associated with the mariculture industry in Ecuador to illustrate the
importance of environmental quality to sustainable coastal zone management. The value
of shrimp production from ponds increased from $56.9 million US dollars in 1980 to
$482 million US dollars in 1991, ranked second only to petroleum as an export
commodity for Ecuador (Olsen and Arriaga, 1989; Aiken, 1990). During early 1990's,
cash generated by mariculture activity was more important to the economy of Ecuador
than bananas and cacao combined, and twice as important as coffee (Aiken, 1990;
Arguero and Gonzalez, 1991, cited in Gonzalez, 1993, p. 2). Ecuador produced less than
5,000 MT of shrimp from ponds in 1979, rising quickly to a production of more than
100,000 MT by 1991, during which time the area of ponds increased to over 100,000 ha
(McPadden, 1985; Twilley et al., 1993). The controversy of coastal resource
management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of pond construction and
management as negative feedbacks to the ecological processes of mangroves and
estuaries. The success of developing management plans for the coastal zone depends on
the ability to identify properties that determine the environmental quality of coastal
ecosystems in Ecuador, and how shrimp pond management influences the contribution
of services from natural resources such as mangroves with incremental changes in land
use of the intertidal zone (Fig. 1).

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2. Environmental quality of Guayas River estuary

The coastal resources of Ecuador are impacted by diverse economic activities and land
use patterns that may influence the environmental quality of coastal waters (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. The complex interactions of coastal processes (upper panels) and upland land use (lower panels)
that determine the environmental quality of coastal resources in Ecuador

Environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary is influenced by inputs from upland
watersheds, exchanges with the intertidal zone, and oceanographic processes in the Gulf
of Guayaquil. Activities in the watershed include a dam project that will influence fresh
water discharge, expanding agriculture with associated input of chemicals including
nutrients and pesticides, sewage from increased urbanization, and toxic substances from

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industrial activities (Arriaga, 1989; Solórzano, 1989). In addition, red tides develop in
coastal waters that may be pumped into hatcheries and shrimp ponds. These diverse
anthropogenic influences on water quality in the estuary complicate environmental
management of this coastal ecosystem. In the upper panel of Fig. 2, the environmental
setting that influences the environmental quality of coastal systems is shown to include
river discharge, tides, and coastal ocean currents. In the lower section of Fig. 2, more
anthropogenic effects of industry, navigation, urban, agriculture, and tourist activities
are linked to environmental quality.

2.1. Environmental setting

The Gulf of Guayaquil receives runoff from some 20 rivers in a watershed of 51,230
km2 forming the largest estuarine ecosystem on the western Pacific coast of South
America (Cucalón, 1984). The major source of fresh water is the Guayas River, which
forms 60 km upstream at the confluence of the Daule and Babahoyo Rivers. The mean
discharge of 1143.7 m3/s for the Guayas River is the highest among the 30 rivers in the
coastal zone of Ecuador representing 39 % of the total discharge from this lowland
region. Mean precipitation in the Guayas River drainage system north of Guayaquil is
885 mm/yr, which may range from less than 400 to more than 1800 mm during any one
year (Stevenson, 1981). Discharge is strongly seasonal ranging from 200 m3/s during
the dry season to 1600 m3/s in the wet season with an average amount of precipitation
(about 900 mm/yr). Tides are semi- diurnal with an equal amplitude of 1.8 m in the Gulf
of Guayaquil, amplified to 3±5 m in the Guayas River estuary near the city of
Guayaquil. Coastal Ecuador is a transition zone, or equatorial front, between southerly
flowing tropical water from the Panama Bight and northwardly flowing Humboldt
Current from Peru (Fig. 3). Tropical water flows southward from the Panama Bight
along the coast of Panama and Colombia to about 28 S supplying warm (>258C) and
low salinity (<34 g/kg) waters to the coast of Ecuador (Pesantes and Perez, 1982).
Colder (<228C) and more saline (>35 g/kg) waters flow northward from Peru with the
Humboldt current that is strongly influenced by coastal upwelling. The mixing of these
two water masses occurs between Manta and Punta Santa Elena along the coast of
Ecuador and gradually moves southward into the Gulf of Guayaquil. The dominance of
the Panamanian Current occurs during the summer causing an increase in sea water
temperature and initiates the onset of the rainy season (Cucalón, 1984, 1989). Years of
abnormally warm water temperatures and high rainfall are associated with El Niño
climate patterns due to the influx of unusually warm surface water in southeast Pacific
Ocean. The warmer offshore waters have resulted in the explosive populations of white
shrimp off the coast of Ecuador from enhanced spawning, maturation, and recruitment
(Zimmerman and Minello, 1986). In the last century, 10 major El Niño events were
recorded (Cucalon, 1989) and one of the strongest is presently occurring along the coast
of Ecuador. The high availability of post larvae that supported the expansion of the
shrimp industry in 1983 and 1984 was associated with an unusually strong El Niño o
event. The unpredictable nature of oceanographic events and their influence on river
discharge and near shore recruitment result in complex issues of what factors contribute
to reduced availability of post larvae along the coast of Ecuador (Fig. 2).

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Fig. 3. Map of the coastal zone of Ecuador with details of the Guayas River estuary showing sampling
stations of the 1989 water quality surveys and the boundaries of the three boxes used to simulate
environmental quality of the estuary

2.2. Land use impacts

Changes in the environmental quality of the Guayas River basin and estuary are
associated with land use changes both in upland and intertidal watersheds (Solórzano,
1989; Twilley, 1989). For example, it has been shown that the quality of water in the
estuary may be influenced by introduction of chemicals such as nutrients and pesticides

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from agriculture, sewage from large urban areas, and heavy metals from industry (Fig.
2). Rivers provide the conduit that links ecological processes of an estuary with land use
practices of upland watersheds (Fig. 1). Deforestation of natural vegetation followed by
replacement with agroecosystems, in addition to urban and industrial activities, can
change the chemical composition of riverain inputs to the Guayas River estuary. In
addition, the distribution and turnover rate of these pollutants in the estuary are
influenced by alterations in the quantity and seasonal nature of fresh water discharge
from the watershed. Thus the quantity and quality of riverain inputs together are
important linkages of the environmental quality of Guayas River estuary to the
productivity of shrimp pond mariculture (Fig. 2). A dam has been constructed at the
confluence of the Daule and Peripa rivers for diversion of water supply, control of river
flow, and hydroelectric power. Water is diverted with an aqueduct from the Daule River
to the Santa Elena peninsula for potable water, irrigation for agriculture, and industrial
use. The dam will influence the amount of water from the Daule and Peripa Rivers that
normally discharges into the Guayas River. Presently the proposed operation of the dam
calls for an average annual flow of from 100 to 175 m3/s (Jenkins, 1979; Arriaga,
1989). This flow will vary from a high of 321 m3/s during the wet seasons in April, to a
low of 124 m3/s in August. Compared to the normal flow of the Daule and Peripa
Rivers, this modified flow is much lower than the fresh water discharge of up to 1,000
m3/s that usually occurs during the wet season. During the dry season, to control salt
water intrusion, the dam will provide water above the average discharge of about 50
m3/s from supplies stored in the impoundment. Based on average monthly flows, the
normal discharge of 343 m3/s for these two rivers will be restricted to 174 m3/s, a
reduction of about 49 %. This reduction represents a 15% loss of the fresh water to the
Guayas River and 13 % from the Guayas River estuary. The loss of fresh water from an
estuary in a semiarid zone such as the Guayas province may influence the patterns of
salinity in this coastal ecosystem.

2.2.1. Water quality

The chemical and physical characteristics of the Guayas River estuary, in the upper
reaches of the Gulf of Guayaquil, were surveyed for 14 months during 1989 and 1990
(Cárdenas, 1995). The Guayas River estuary consists of three sub-estuaries: the Guayas,
Churute, and Salado (Fig. 3). Salinity regimes in the Guayas and Churute sub-estuaries
reflect the strong seasonal influence of fresh water with mean salinities of 18 and 16
g/kg, respectively; while fresh water input is restricted in the Salado with mean
salinities of 28 g/kg (Table 1). Nitrate was the major form of fixed nitrogen present in
the estuary accounting for 70% of the DIN. NO3- plus DON (dissolved organic
nitrogen) and PN (particulate nitrogen) formed about 30% each of the total nitrogen
(TN) pool. Total phosphorus concentrations in all sub-estuaries were similar with mean
values ranging from 3 to 5 mM (Table 1). TN:TP ratios <9 is a distinct feature of this
tropical estuary compared to a normal balance of about 16 for phytoplankton. A ratio
below 16 indicates that nitrogen may be limiting productivity. However, the high
turbidity of this estuary with suspended sediment concentrations averaging from 115 to
494 mg/L in the main channel may be the key limiting factor to chlorophyll production
(Table 1).

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Table 1. Mean concentration of water quality parameters in the lower and upper zones of three regions in
the Guayas River estuary during the wet and dry seasons (Cárdenas, 1995)

Parameter Units Season Churute Guayas Salado

lower upper lower upper lower upper
o
Temperature C dry 25.4 25 25.8 25.2 25.1 25.6
wet 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.8
Salinity g/kg dry 23 18 29.7 10.5 30.3 27.2
wet 13.2 8 25.4 1.6 27.6 26
Dissolved oxygen mg/L dry 3.7 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 3.5
wet 3.3 2.3 5 3.4 4 2.6
Suspended sedimen mg/L dry 332 95.6 315.2 455.7 207.3 93.6
wet 242.9 58.3 114.6 494 121 48.2
Total nitrogen mM dry 31.7 31.8 23.2 45.6 22.8 25.3
wet 34.7 36.8 19.2 42.7 21.2 29.7
Total phosphorus mM dry 4.2 4.2 5.2 5.2 4 5.7
wet 3.9 4.7 3.1 5 3.1 3.9
PO4≡ mM dry 2.6 2.8 2 3.3 1.8 2.4
wet 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.3 1.9 3
NH4+ mM dry 1.8 2.8 2.1 3.8 2.6 4.8
wet 1.8 2.3 1.5 3.8 2 3.2
NO3- mM dry 10.4 9.2 6.3 19.4 5.9 7.2
wet 12.6 11.7 4.2 15.8 4.4 10.6
DIN mM dry 12.9 14.4 9.3 23.6 9.2 13.6
wet 15.6 17.4 6.3 19.9 7.7 17.5
TN:TP dry 7.6 7.6 4.5 8.9 5.7 4.4
wet 8.9 7.8 6.2 8.5 6.8 7.6
DIN = dissolved inorganic nitrogen

2.2.2. Mangrove resources

The most controversial issue related to the environmental quality of the coastal
resources of Ecuador has been the exploitation of mangroves associated with the
construction of shrimp ponds. In 1969, the total mangrove area in Ecuador was 203,695
ha, of which nearly 78 % were located in the two southern provinces of Guayas and El
Oro (Alvarez et al., 1989; Fig. 4C). By 1991, the total mangrove area declined to
161,410 ha, and 81% of this resource remained in Guayas and El Oro provinces (Fig.
4C). The reduction of mangrove area from 1969 to 1991 was estimated at 42,285 ha or
20.8 % of the original 203,695 ha. By 1991 CLIRSEN, estimated that 145,940 ha of
ponds had been constructed in the coastal zone, suggesting that 29 % of shrimp ponds
had eliminated mangrove areas. During this same interval, nearly 44,005 ha of salines
had been loss, nearly all to shrimp pond construction. The greatest loss of mangroves
has occurred in the Guayas Province at nearly 1,500 ha/yr for both the 1984 and 1987
and 1987±1991 periods of analysis. Because of the large area of mangroves found in the
Guayas River estuary, this high rate of loss is less than 15% of the existing mangrove
resources. By late 1988 the destruction of mangrove habitat in some estuaries in the
province of Manabi was virtually complete, such as in Rio Chone estuary. From 1974 to
1988 mangrove area along this estuary declined from 3,973 to 600 ha, and nearly all of
the mangrove loss was associated with construction of shrimp ponds. In the Atacames
River estuary, there are only 50 ha of mangroves remaining of the 578 reported in

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1970s, representing a loss of 90.1 % of the mangrove resources. In the southern

province of El Oro, the Machala-Puerto Bolivar area lost over 50 % of a very productive
mangrove system. The impacts of mangrove loss on the environmental quality of
estuarine resources depends on specific regional land use characteristics. However, the
cumulative loss of mangroves along the entire coast is also an issue relative to
sustaining habitat necessary for continued recruitment of shrimp to the coastal zone
(Turner, 1989).

Fig. 4. Land use changes in the intertidal zone of the four coastal provinces of Ecuador from 1969 to 1991
including (A) shrimp ponds and (B) mangroves

2.2.3. Shrimp mariculture

Shrimp ponds represent managed ecosystems that are linked to the ecological processes
of several coastal ecosystems (Fig. 2). The impacts of shrimp pond management on the
environmental quality of estuaries is related to the loss of mangroves associated with
pond construction, pond operations such as pumping, fertilization, feed supply and
dredging, along with the harvesting of post larvae to stock ponds. Evaluating the
interactions of shrimp pond management depends on our understanding the habitat and
water quality functions of coastal ecosystems (Fig. 2). These estuarine functions are
linked to a variety of ecological processes in mangroves, as well as other ecosystems in
the coastal zone (Twilley et al., 1997). Specific stages of shrimp pond management
depend on these free services of the estuarine ecosystem by providing a habitat to

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facilitate the growth of post larvae to adult shrimp. These include functions that supply
wild post larvae to grow out ponds, and water quality conditions that enhance the
growth and survival of juvenile shrimp.
Habitat quality of mangroves in the estuary is lost when these wetlands are
destroyed during the construction of ponds. Mangrove functions such as nutrient sinks
that contribute to the environmental quality of the estuary are also removed. Critical
water quality parameters that affect shrimp pond management, and profits, include
dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and toxic substances, including red tides (Fig. 2). Many
water quality conditions in ponds, such as hypoxia, can be managed by increasing the
exchange of water from the estuary that supplies more dissolved oxygen to the water
column. But increased pumping also effects the environmental quality of the estuary by
recirculating estuarine water that can contain elevated concentrations of nutrients. This
represents a feedback effect of shrimp pond management on estuarine ecosystems
referred to as `selfpollution' (Csavas, 1994).

3. Simulation model

3.1. Model description

We constructed a simple dynamic box model of the Guayas River estuary to

quantitatively test how to manage mangrove conservation with shrimp pond operations.
Our model is a `strategic simulation' model (Ross and Gurney, 1993) that focusses on
realism and simplicity by selecting the ecologically relevant components and processes
within the context of specific management issues described above (Ross and Gurney,
1993; Jùrgensen, 1994; Hopkinson and Vallino, 1995). There exist few attempts to
model aquaculture pond systems and to link them to larger ecosystems in such a way as
to permit analysis of landscape management (Hagiwara and Mitsch, 1994). In shrimp
mariculture most environmental studies are directed to maintaining optimal conditions
in ponds for growth and development of shrimp post-larvae, and for maximizing profits
(Robertson and Phillips, 1995; Dierberg and Kiattisimkul, 1996). There are few
ecologically based regional models to assess shrimp pond land use within an estuary
relative to both spatial and temporal issues of sustainability (Wang, 1990).
Similarly, existing models can rarely examine feedbacks of pond operations that
may influence long term economic gains of this industry by reducing water quality (e.g.
self pollution). Most concerns have centered around the loss of free ecological functions
provided by mangroves (Twilley et al., 1993; Twilley, 1995) and a decline in
environmental quality of the estuary. We describe a model to address issues of
mangrove deforestation resulting from the rapid growth of the shrimp pond industry and
its potential impacts on water quality in the Guayas River estuary. The computer model
was developed using the dynamic simulation software STELLA II, version 3.0.5
(Hannon and Ruth, 1994), a user friendly object-oriented application for solution of
complex differential equations. The main objective of our ecological model is to
evaluate the effects of shrimp mariculture on the transport of salt, suspended sediments,
and total nitrogen in the Guayas River estuary. These three parameters are
representative of the conservative and nonconservative behavior of substances that are
exchanged with water between shrimp ponds and the estuary and can modify water
quality. Salt is conservative and represents changes that are associated with dilution of
river discharge with sea water from the Gulf of Guayaquil. We assumed in these

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simulations that shrimp ponds do not alter salinity of water exchanged with the estuary,
although this may not be accurate (Snedaker et al., 1986; Twilley, 1989) and needs
further analyses. The behavior of salt is necessary to test our assumptions concerning
the hydrography and mixing characteristics of our box model. Total suspended
sediments are also strongly influenced by estuarine hydrography rather than
biochemistry in the estuary, but fluxes are sensitive to land use changes in the intertidal
zone between mangroves and shrimp ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations
determine the quantity and quality of light in the estuary, that will influence levels of
primary productivity (Cloern, 1987).
Total nitrogen is influenced by estuarine hydrography, land use, along with the
biochemistry of ecological processes in the Guayas River estuary, representing a more
complex indicator of water quality. The model explores how the loss of mangrove
wetlands along specific regions of the estuary may affect nitrogen content in the estuary,
using nitrogen concentrations as an index of change in environmental quality. We
consider our simulations of different management scenarios as a preliminary approach
to focus future efforts to calibrate and verify other attributes of water quality, such as
dissolved oxygen. Also, this `unit' model approach can be used to build more
sophisticated dynamic and landscape models in the future, whose simulations can be
used to develop management plans for river basins coupled to the Guayas River estuary.
This last objective is fundamental because the success of developing management plans
for this region depends on the ability to integrate ecological functions of mangroves
with the management of shrimp ponds (Fig. 1).

3.1.1. Hydrography
The Guayas river estuary is a partially mixed estuary with tidal current speeds up to 100
cm/s (Murray et al., 1975). The dominant upstream flux of mass and salt are apparently
associated with the tidal prism (Murray et al., 1975). We divided the Guayas River
estuary in three regions (upper, middle and lower, Fig. 5) to facilitate modeling the
hydrology using a box model approach (Officer, 1980; Miller and McPherson, 1991).
Boundaries of the system are the river in the upper region and the passage formed by the
Jambeli channel (Fig. 3) in the lower region. We included water exchange between the
estuary with shrimp ponds and surrounding mangroves in each of the three regions.
Salinity values in the upper and lower regions of the estuary of 8 and 20 g/kg,
respectively, reflect the influence of river and water exchange with coastal waters. Due
to the strong influence of semidiurnal tides, with a tidal amplitude of 3 m and a strong
seasonality in river discharge, the Guayas River estuary is not stratified (Murray et al.,
1975; Cardenas, 1995; Cifuentes et al., 1996). Average depth in the upper and lower
regions are 8 and 10 m, respectively.
The partition of the estuary in three regions sacrificed some realism and
precision but allowed us to maintain a certain level of simplicity. This approach is
necessary given the complexity of physical and biological interactions in this tropical
estuary. Water flux and salinity in the Guayas River estuary were simulated using the
method proposed by Miller and McPherson (1991). This method incorporates effects of
fresh water inflows (advection) and tidal flushing (dispersion) on the transport of water
and waterborne constituents through a series of sequential, one-dimensional volume
elements (boxes) (Fig. 5). The method uses the approach that over many tidal cycles the
tidally averaged `flow' (Qg, m3/s) of water from the coast with a salinity of 35 g/kg (in
our case the Gulf of Guayaquil) can be treated as a constant at any point in the estuary.

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Qg then can be used in a simple mixing equation to predict salinity in the estuary at
different river flows and to calculate tidally averaged exchange flows (QE) between
boxes. This method is better applied in long, narrow estuaries in which most of the fresh
water inflow is near the head of the estuary as is the case of the Guayas River estuary.

Fig. 5. Diagram describing the model used to simulate the fate of salt, sediments and total nitrogen in the
Guayas River estuary based on exchanges among three boxes in the estuary, and lateral exchange of each
box with corresponding region of intertidal zone

Salinity data used in the model were collected in a series of cruises along the
Guayas river estuary at near monthly intervals from 1989 to 1990 under different
regimes of river discharge (Cárdenas, 1995). River discharge data used to calculate Qg
was an average among values obtained in the same period (Navarrete, CEDEGE,
personal communication). QE, the average exchange flow, was calculated by assuming
that fresh water inflow with a salinity of 0.1 g/kg, mixes with the necessary transport of
net water (Qg) from the Gulf of Guayaquil, with an average salinity of 29.2 g/kg (at
Jambelí passage, Station P3, Fig. 3). The observed salinity is then calculated using:

212
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

S i = (S g *Q g ) + (S r *Q ri ) (1)
Q g + Q ri

where S i is the observed salinity at a given site during sampling period i, S g the salinity
of the Jambelli passage end member (29.2 g/kg), Q g the tidally average flow of new
Gulf water needed at a given site to produce the observed salinity when mixed with a
fresh water of flow Q ri , Sr the salinity of river-end member (0.1 g/kg), and Q ri the
average antecedent inflow of fresh water for sampling period i. Qg is relatively
independent of river inflow and was treated as a constant at each sampling site (Miller
and McPherson, 1991).
We used the same least-square normal equation derived from Eq. (1) as
presented in Miller and McPherson (1991) (the numerator in the last term of their Eq.
(2) should be Qri2 instead of Q ri ) to calculate values of Q g . Exchange flow (QE, m3/s)
between boxes was calculated as follows:

Q Ei = (S i - S i - 1 )(Q r + Q Ei - 1 ) (2)
(S i+1 + S i )

where Q Ei is the tidally averaged flow of water due to tidal action needed to maintain a
salt balance between box i and i + 1. The upstream region of the Guayas river estuary (i
=1) S i - 1 was set to the salinity calculated for the upstream boundary of box 1, and Q Ei
- 1 was set to 0 in the most downstream box (i = 3), S i +1 was set to the salinity of the
downstream boundary of box 3 (Station P3, Fig. 3).

The exchange flows were used to calculate salinity in each box at each DT:

C Ei = C Si + dt [Qr(C Si-1 - C Si ) + Q Ei-1 (C Si-1 - C Si + Q E (C Si+1 C Si )] (3)

Vi

where CEi is the concentration of a conservative constituent (i.e. salt) in the longitudinal
center of box i at the end of the current time step, and C Si the concentration of the
constituent in the longitudinal center of box i at the start of the current time step (Miller
and McPherson, 1991). The terms included in the brackets calculate the effects due to
river inflow of advection on concentration, as well as the effects of tidal circulation and
dispersion from the adjacent upstream and down-stream boxes (Fig. 3).
Water turnover time is only 11 d as a consequence of high tide amplitude
leading to large fluxes of water and nutrients across the boundaries that determine
system behavior. Although we did not use hourly time steps to specifically model
diurnal inequalities of water levels during tides (Murray et al., 1975), a time step of 1
day allowed us to correctly simulate water fluxes and salinity oscillations. Given the
high turnover rate of water in this estuary, hydrological features such as a vertical layers
and structure in the water column do not completely develop and therefore are not
included in the model.

3.1.2. Exchange of sediment and nitrogen

Equations representing transport of total suspended sediments and total nitrogen

through the estuary are similar to those that describe the transport of salt. Seasonal

213
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

concentrations of suspended sediment and total nitrogen in Guayas River and in

offshore waters were based on water quality surveys in the area (Table 1). The model
determines the exchange, or net flux, of total nitrogen, and suspended sediments among
the upper, middle and lower zones of the estuary. Sediments and nitrogen in the model
flows not only among the three estuarine zones, but also between bay waters, shrimp
ponds, and the surrounding mangroves within each zone (Fig. 5). Each ha of ponds or
mangroves contributes a fixed amount of nitrogen or captures a fixed amount of
sediments. Thus, the model simplifies their interaction with the estuary by using
exchange coefficients for sediment and nitrogen between either mangroves or shrimp
ponds and the estuary. Mangroves remove nitrogen but ponds are a source of this
nutrient because of fertilization. However, both mangroves and shrimp ponds remove
sediment, thus they have no distinct function in the model (but different magnitude).
Sediment accumulates in mangroves contributing to the expansion of this wetland in the
estuary; whereas sediment accumulated in shrimp ponds is dredged periodically and
accumulates on land (Twilley, 1989). In addition, both nitrogen and sediment are lost in
each segment of the estuary. Sedimentation of suspended sediment is estimated at 1%/d
of the total amount of sediment in each respective estuarine zone. Loss of nitrogen is
linked to both sedimentation and denitrification and we estimated this was 10%/d of
nitrogen content in each respective zone of the Guayas River estuary.
Mangroves may be a sink of sediments and nutrients in coastal waters (Lynch et
al., 1989; Twilley, 1997a) and they have been recommended for the treatment of
nutrient enriched effluent (Macnae, 1968; Corredor and Morell, 1994), although this
function is still poorly understood (Clough et al., 1983). The Guayas River estuary is
turbid and extensive mangroves along the shore line trap sediments suspended in the
water column during flooding, enriching mangrove soils (Twilley, 1995). Sediment
accumulation in the mangroves of the Guayas River estuary averages about 3660 g m-2
yr-1, or about 10 g m-2 yr-1, and this rate was used in the model. Nitrogen accumulation
in the model is based on a rate of 11.3 g m-2 yr-1, or about 0.03 g m-2 d-1 (Twilley, 1995).
Much of this nitrogen accumulation in mangrove sediments is supported by inorganic
nutrients carried by tides from the estuary into the wetland (Rivera-Monroy et al.,
1995a) and little of this inorganic nitrogen is apparently loss by denitrification at
unenriched concentrations (Rivera-Monroy et al., 1995b; Rivera-Monroy and Twilley,
1996). However, mangroves have a very high potential to process excess nitrogen either
by sediment accumulation or denitrification (Corredor and Morell, 1994; Rivera-
Monroy et al., in press).
During shrimp pond management, the natural exchange of estuarine water via
tides with the intertidal zone has been replaced with diesel pumps that link shrimp
ponds to the estuary. Diesel engines are used to pump water daily from the estuary
during high tides to a central aqueduct system where water then flows to individual
ponds. Exchange rates vary from 3 to 8 % of the pond volume per day under semi-
extensive mariculture, and may increase to 10±15 % under more intense farming
practices (Boyd and Fast, 1992). The total volume of water pumped from the Guayas
River estuary to shrimp ponds depends on exchange rates (% of pond volume/d) and
area of ponds in operation (Twilley, 1989). At a present operation of 92,000 ha of ponds
under semi-extensive management (5%/d pumping rate), the volume of water
exchanged daily with the estuary is approximately 65*106 m3 (using a mean pond depth
of 1.5 m; Twilley, 1989; Twilley et al., 1993). This volume exceeds the discharge of the
Guayas River during low flow period. At intensive pond management (10 % pumping

214
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

rate), the same area of ponds would exchange more volume than river discharge during
high flow. These types of scenarios underscore the potential significance of water use
by shrimp ponds on the pattern of water quality in this estuary.
Supplemental feeding and fertilization methods are required to meet the demand
for food at higher stocking densities of post larvae in ponds. A main source of nutrition
for shrimp in growout ponds are phytoplankton blooms that result from urea and
superphosphates added prior to stocking. Supplemental feeding is carried out towards
the end of the growth cycle, usually the last four weeks. Much of the nitrogen and
phosphate applied to ponds are absorbed by phytoplankton and are thus returned to the
estuary in organic form (Rivera-Monroy et al., in press). We used a loading rate of 0.1 g
m-2 d-1 (365 kg ha-1 yr-1) of total nitrogen from shrimp ponds operations to the estuary.
This value varies among types of operation and includes assumptions that most of the
organic nitrogen is exported (Boyd and Fast, 1992). This value needs better calibration.

3.1.3. Scenarios
The incremental impact of replacing mangroves with shrimp ponds was investigated by
running di€erent scenarios of land use in the intertidal zone. The model allows ponds to
replace mangrove wetlands in the intertidal zone. In run S1, the entire intertidal area is
considered mangroves with no ponds (100:0); in run S2 the intertidal area is equally
distributed between mangroves and shrimp ponds (50:50); and in run S3, all of the
intertidal area is converted to shrimp ponds (0:100). The intertidal area (km2) for each
zone of the estuary used in each simulation run was computed directly from maps of the
area (Fig. 5). When 100 % of the intertidal zone is in mangroves, the area (km2) of
mangroves in each specific zone is equal to total intertidal area as noted in Fig. 5. If
mangroves and ponds are 50% each of the intertidal area, each occupies half the specific
intertidal area of each respective zone (run S2). The simulations are compared to the
base run where all land is in mangroves and river flow is at 100% of 1989 levels. Each
of the intertidal land use ratios (100:0, 50:50, 0:100, % of mangrove:pond) were run at
100, 50 and 10% of base line river flow.

3.2. Simulation results and discussions

Seasonal patterns of salinity were under conditions of 1989 river flow were similar in
simulations compared to field measurements. Comparisons of salinity in Estero Salado
based on simulation output compared to field measures were used to validate the
hydrographic design of the model (data not shown). In simulations for this experiment
of intertidal land use, we varied river flow to test the effect of hydrography on
environmental quality. Changes in salinity were most sensitive to river flow in the upper
estuary, but as expected salinities in all three zones increased with decreased river flow
(Fig. 6). Even at only 10 % river flow, the highest salinities were 25 g/kg at the mouth
of the estuary. The sharpest gradient in salinity was between mid and lower zones
during full river discharge, with salinities of 7 and 20 g/kg, respectively. At low river
flow (10 %), there was less difference in average salinities among the zones.
Mangroves remove suspended sediments in the model, as do shrimp ponds; thus
even though one of these ecosystems replaces the other, the function of the intertidal
zone remains as a sediment sink. Thus, as mangroves are converted to shrimp ponds, the
sediment sink function of the intertidal zone actually increases, because ponds are more
efficient at accumulating sediment than are mangroves. Accordingly, the suspended

215
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

sediment concentrations in the base runoff normal river flow and tides with all
mangroves in the intertidal zone (100:0) yield suspended concentrations of 375 mg/L

Fig. 6. Simulation results of salinity in three

zones of the Guayas River estuary showing
the three reductions of river flow

in the upper estuary compared to about 300 mg/L when the intertidal zone is all ponds
(0:100) (Fig. 7). The other factor that decreases sediment concentrations is the amount
of river flow. At 90 % reduction in river flow, suspended concentrations are only 5±20
% of base run concentrations because sediments have more time to settle out. Again,
changes in suspended sediment are most apparent in the upper and middle regions of the
estuary with little change in the lower estuary (Fig. 7). Concentrations are most
sensitive to magnitude of river flow rather than land use.
Total nitrogen concentrations change with land use depending on the amount of
river flow in the estuary (Fig. 8). With all mangroves and no shrimp ponds in each
sector of the estuary (100:0), as river flow decreases there is an increase in total nitrogen
in the estuary in the upper and middle zones, but concentrations remain low in the lower
estuary with all land use patterns. At 90 % reduction in river flow, total nitrogen
concentrations increase by 5 fold in the upper and middle estuary. In addition, with a
reduction in mangroves and increased construction of shrimp ponds to a 50:50
distribution in each region of the estuary, concentrations of total nitrogen increase 30
fold in the upper estuary compared to 10 fold in the middle estuary (50:50 compared to
100, 50 and 10% river flow). Again, there is very little change in the total nitrogen in
the lower estuary associated with land use change at reduced river flow. Extreme
nitrogen concentrations are observed in the upper and middle estuary when all the
mangroves are removed and replaced with shrimp ponds (0:100), three reductions
of river flow with 60 and 30 fold increases, respectively. Peak concentrations, at nearly
275 mM of total nitrogen are extreme eutrophic concentrations. Note that the middle
bay shows about one-third of the increase in the upper bay (Fig. 5). In summary,
decreased river flow combined with the conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds tends
to increase nitrogen concentration markedly in the upper and middle bays, with less
change in the lower estuary.
There exists an important potential interaction between mangroves and shrimp
ponds with respect to total nitrogen and suspended sediment concentrations in response
to land use in the intertidal zone. A decrease in suspended sediment concentration due
to pond construction allows more light to penetrate the water column. This light is an
important resource for the growth of phytoplankton in normally turbid river-dominated

216
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

estuaries. Therefore, the reduction of suspended sediment alone will probably promote
phytoplankton growth and the productivity of this pond/estuary ecosystem. But those

Fig. 7. Simulation results of suspended sediments Fig. 8. Simulation results of total nitrogen in three
in three zones of the Guayas River estuary zones of the Guayas River estuary showing the
showing the three land use scenarios at three land use scenarios at three reductions of river
flow

scenarios that caused a reduction in suspended sediment concentrations also resulted in

increased total nitrogen concentrations as ponds enrich estuarine waters and mangroves
no longer remove nutrients. Thus, these two land use changes will increase two
resources: light and nutrients. The combination of these two factors should markedly
change the productivity and water quality leading to increased potential for the
eutrophication of the Guayas River estuary.
Model simulations indicate that shrimp pond industries in the Guayas River
estuary have managed to sustain high productivities and profits largely as a
consequence of substantial river discharge to this tropical estuary. Seasonally high
water input reduces the residence time of nutrients in the estuary, preventing significant
eutrophication problems. The government's construction of the Daule-Peripa Dam
upstream, however, threatens local economic industries by substantially reducing river

217
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

flow, perhaps by about one-half. The model indicates that nitrogen concentrations will
increase in the upper and middle regions of the estuary to levels that threaten the
environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary. However, there will be much less
effect on the estuarine resources in the lower zone, where concentrations remain low
because of the high exchange with mesotrophic waters in the Gulf of Guayaquil.
Suspended sediment concentrations will decrease similarly to various levels across the
three estuarine zones when the dam is under full operation. These simulations and
preliminary analyses suggest that changes threatening the eutrophication of this estuary
will vary according to location along the shore line. Water quality problems leading to
reduced profitability of the shrimp industry will also be spatially selective. Impacts of
land use changes in the upland watershed will not be evenly distributed along the
Guayas River estuary. In addition, these changes, particularly the reduction of fresh
water discharge can potentially reduce the environmental quality of the estuary.

4. Integrated mangrove management

The long term sustainability of shrimp mariculture in Ecuador will require integrative
approaches to the management of coastal zone resources. These management
considerations not only include the interactions of the shrimp farming industry with
estuarine and coastal ocean ecosystems, but also land use activities in the upland
watershed and urban centers. For example, the interactions of shrimp farming activities
with the Guayas River estuarine ecosystem demonstrate the complex nature of how
environmental impacts influence the sustainability of this industry (Figs. 2 and 9). The
upper panel of Fig. 9 describes the present strategy in utilizing the coastal resources of
Ecuador by the shrimp mariculture industry, including the feedback effect of this
enterprise on estuarine environmental quality. Decreases in the environmental quality of
estuarine resources affect the productivity of shrimp ponds by influencing the ability of
natural resources to supply post larvae, and by controlling the survival and growth of
shrimp in growout ponds. Thus, the secondary productivity of pond ecosystems is
constrained by the variety of factors that are linked to water and habitat quality in
coastal ecosystems (Figs. 2 and 9).
There are some indications that mangroves can be managed and engineered to remove
excessive nutrients pond nutrients in coastal environments (Nedwell, 1975; Corredor
and Morell, 1994; Robertson and Phillips, 1995; Rivera-Monroy et al., in press). This is
a particularly important research agenda given the increased eutrophication of coastal
waters in the tropics. Mangroves may represent sinks of several primary nutrients used
in the fertilization of ponds, particularly phosphates and nitrogen. Mangrove sediments
may also have the capacity to absorb some of the BOD associated with pond effluent
high in chlorophyll biomass that may shift the balance of dissolved oxygen in the
estuary. Effluent from shrimp ponds could be distributed in nearby mangrove forests for
nutrient removal prior to the return of water back to the estuary. The use of mangroves
as a nutrient filter of pond effluent would limit the negative feedback of shrimp
ponds on the water quality of coastal ecosystems (Fig. 9B). The contribution of excess
nutrients from shrimp ponds to mangrove ecosystems would most likely enhance
mangrove productivity and potentially enhance the contribution of these forested
wetlands to habitat quality of estuaries. This scheme to integrate the natural function of
mangroves with the management of shrimp ponds would serve as a means of altering
what is presently a negative impact of intensive aquaculture to estuarine ecosystems

218
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

into a positive feedback (Fig. 9B). The shift from extensive to intensive mariculture
may not necessarily impact the estuarine ecosystem if mangroves could be utilized in
the operation of these types of ponds.

Fig. 9. Comparison of present practices in coastal zone management (A) with recommended strategies for
integrated mangrove management (B) based on the ecological processes of mangroves and their function
in maintaining the habitat and water quality of the coastal zone; and how these functions support shrimp
farm industry

Integrating mangroves into shrimp pond operations will require more substantial
evidence of its cost effectiveness, rather than using recommendations based solely on
ecological function. Quantitative estimates of mangrove loss with corresponding

219
Anexos An approach and preliminary model

increase in pond operations need to be linked to changes in environmental quality of the

estuary. In addition, incremental impacts will most likely vary spatially along the
longitudinal axis of the estuary, due to variation of water residence time and rates of
ecological processes. Thus, site selection of ponds may be a key management option to
sustaining both environmental quality of the estuary and minimizing costs of pond
operations (Snedaker et al., 1986). Finally, the functional ecology of mangroves, both
natural and restored wetlands, need to be compared and integrated with the engineered
services of shrimp ponds (Fig. 1).
These simulations have demonstrated the sensitivity of key hydrologic and land
use parameters to water quality issues in the Guayas River estuary. Differences in river
flow influence the sensitivity of water quality in the estuary to land use of intertidal
zone between mangrove conservation and shrimp pond construction. These parameters,
in turn, will affect the role that mangroves play in determining industry profits at
different zones along the estuary. Accordingly, the model may enable planners and
conservationists to determine those estuaries, and particular locations within estuaries,
where industry profits may be particularly vulnerable to the loss of mangroves due to
the unique physical characteristics of estuaries. One of the initial results of these
simulations is that mangroves do not always play an important role in maintaining water
quality. Using self-interest as a motivation for maintaining mangroves will work best
when self-interest can be demonstrated reasonably to pond owners. The model suggests
that self-interest can only be so demonstrated under certain hydrographic conditions of
the estuary. Pond management strategies represent behavioral forcing functions that
affect the ecology of the entire estuary. And these pond operations are linked to the
comprehensive land use alternatives in the entire river basin that influence the
environmental quality of the estuary.

Acknowledgements

Funding for the mangrove research in Ecuador was from US Agency for International
Development Program in Science and Technology Cooperation (grant No. DPE-5542-
G-SS-8011-00) and the University of Rhode Island/AID Coastal Resource Management
Program. Support from University of Southwestern University includes LEQSF (1988-
94-GF-15) from Board of Regents, Faculty Research Awards, Graduate Student
Organization, and Department of Biology. Support from the University of the South
includes a Faculty Research Grant.

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