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Simulation Sample Problem

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Cauzer Rifaie
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5 views

Simulation Sample Problem

Uploaded by

Cauzer Rifaie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BUSI 410 – Simulation Sample Problem and Answer

Instructions:
1. Use Crystal Ball to solve the practice problem. Please run 500 trials and use initial seed
value 410. (Click on the Run Preferences button, then on the Sampling tab check “Use
same sequence of random numbers” and fill in “410” as the Initial seed value.)
2. For every problem, include in your submission screen captures of the spreadsheet
model, with (i) formulas shown in the cells that contain formulas (go to the Formulas tab
and click on the Show Formulas button, or use hotkey Ctrl+~), and (ii) gridlines and
headings shown (go to the Page Layout tab and check View Gridlines and View
Headings).
3. You need to justify your answers. If your answer comes from the simulation statistics,
include the entire statistics table in your submission. If your answer comes from the
frequency chart, include a screen capture of the frequency chart showing your answer.
4. If you need help making screen captures, read Working with Word and PDF Documents in
Canvas=>Modules=>Resources.

The owner of a local car dealership has just received a call from a regional distributor stating
that a $3,000 bonus (lump-sum, not per car) will be awarded if the dealership sells anywhere
from 6 to 10 new cars next Saturday, and a $5000 bonus if it sells 11 or more new cars next
Saturday. There is no way to determine exactly how many customers will come and test drive
new cars next Saturday. However, the owner is fairly certain that the number would not be
less than 15, but also thinks it would be unrealistic to expect more than 75, with 30 being the
best guess. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the number of customers is triangularly
distributed, with minimum 15, maximum 75, and most likely value 30 (keeping of course in
mind that the number of customers must be a whole number). The owner determined that, on
average, about one out of ten customers who test drives a car at the dealership purchases the
car; i.e., a 0.1 probability exists that any given customer will buy a new car. Please use Crystal
Ball to help the owner:

a. Develop a simulation model and determine the expected number of cars the dealership
will sell next Saturday.
b. What is the probability that the dealership will earn the $5,000 bonus?
c. What is the expected bonus the dealership will receive (considering the possibility of
not receiving any bonus, receiving $3,000, and receiving $5,000)?
a.

b. 0.4%

c. The expected bonus is $734.

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