Data Analytics For Pandemics: A COVID-19 Case Study (Intelligent Signal Processing and Data Analysis) 1st Edition Gitanjali Rahul Shinde
Data Analytics For Pandemics: A COVID-19 Case Study (Intelligent Signal Processing and Data Analysis) 1st Edition Gitanjali Rahul Shinde
Data Analytics For Pandemics: A COVID-19 Case Study (Intelligent Signal Processing and Data Analysis) 1st Edition Gitanjali Rahul Shinde
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Data Analytics for
Pandemics
A COVID-19 Case Study
Intelligent Signal Processing and
Data Analysis
Series Editor: Nilanjan Dey
Intelligent signal processing (ISP) methods are progressively swap-
ping the conventional analog signal processing techniques in several
domains, such as speech analysis and processing, biomedical signal
analysis radar and sonar signal processing, and processing, telecom-
munications, and geophysical signal processing. The main focus of this
book series is to find out the new trends and techniques in the intel-
ligent signal processing and data analysis leading to scientific break-
throughs in applied applications. Artificial fuzzy logic, deep learning,
optimization algorithms, and neural networks are the main themes.
Bio-Inspired Algorithms in PID Controller Optimization
Jagatheesan Kallannan, Anand Baskaran, Nilanjan Dey,
Amira S. Ashour
A Beginner’s Guide to Image Preprocessing Techniques
Jyotismita Chaki, Nilanjan Dey
Digital Image Watermarking: Theoretical and Computational
Advances
Surekha Borra, Rohit Thanki, Nilanjan Dey
A Beginner’s Guide to Image Shape Feature Extraction Techniques
Jyotismita Chaki, Nilanjan Dey
Coefficient of Variation and Machine Learning Applications
K. Hima Bindu, Raghava Morusupalli, Nilanjan Dey,
C. Raghavendra Rao
Data Analytics for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak
Gitanjali Rahul Shinde, Asmita Balasaheb Kalamkar,
Parikshit Narendra Mahalle, Nilanjan Dey
A Beginner’s Guide to Multi-Level Image Thresholding
Venkatesan Rajinikanth, Nadaradjane Sri Madhava Raja,
Nilanjan Dey
Hybrid Image Processing Methods for Medical Image Examination
Venkatesan Rajinikanth, E. Priya, Hong Lin, Fuhua (Oscar) Lin
For more information about this series, please visit: https://www.
routledge.com/Intelligent-Signal-Processing-and-Data-Analysis/
book-series/INSPDA
Data Analytics for
Pandemics
A COVID-19 Case Study
Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author
and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the conse
quences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright
holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to them if permis
sion to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been
acknowledged please write to us and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.
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Typeset in Times
by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
CONTENTS
Preface ix
Acknowledgment xi
Authors xiii
1 COVID-19 Outbreak 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Epidemic and Pandemic Overview 3
1.2.1 Stages of Disease 3
1.2.2 Pandemic Phases 5
1.2.2.1 Pandemic Risk Factors 5
1.2.2.2 Pandemic Mitigation 5
1.2.2.3 Situational Awareness 6
1.2.2.4 History of Pandemics 6
1.3 Novel Coronavirus 7
1.4 Medical Overview – Nature and Spread 10
1.5 Vulnerability Index 11
References 12
v
vi Contents
ix
x PrefaCe
The next part of the book presents various data analytics mod
els and their performance. Different big data techniques like asso
ciation rule learning, Classification tree analysis, genetic algorithm,
and machine learning are discussed with use cases. There are various
parameters i.e. environmental factors, mobility, patient health his
tory, etc., that can impact on spread rate. The categorization of these
parameters is also discussed in this part of the book. The popula
tion with already existing diseases are more prone to COVID-19 and
in the sequel the discussion of the vulnerable population is also dis
cussed in the scope of this book.
The last section of the book presents a brief of global scenario
affecting China, Italy, and the United States, as examples. Issues and
challenges of data analytics regarding pandemics like COVID-19 are
also presented with mitigation strategies that can be implemented.
Recommendations for citizens, patients, and healthcare profession
als are also suggested to overcome COVID-19. Finally, this book
concludes with the open research and practical issues of COVID-19
control and future outlook to minimize the spread rate of COVID-19.
The main characteristics of this book are:
xi
AUTHORS
xiii
xiv authors
COVID-19 OUTBREAK
1.1 I NTRO D U C TI O N
The key to understanding a pandemic starts with an understanding of
the disease itself and the progression of the natural course of the dis
ease. The word “disease” is defined as the state that negatively affects
the body of a living person, plant, or animal. A disease affects the
body because of a pathogenic infection. The natural course of the dis
ease starts before the onset of the infection, after which it progresses
through the pre-symptomatic stage. The last stage is the clinical phase.
In the clinical phase, a patient receives the prognosis of the disease.
After successful treatment of the disease, the patient enters into the
remission stage. Remission refers to a decrease in the symptoms or a
complete disappearance of the disease. The patient needs to strictly
follow instructions given by the doctor during the remission stage. This
will ensure that the disease does not recur. If treatment is not success
ful, the patient can die or be chronically disabled. The following are
some important terms that are used to represent the disease state:
1
2 D ata A naly tics for Pandem ics: COVID-19
After the diagnosis of the disease comes the most important part: the
treatment. Treatment generally consists of targeting the biochemical
reactions occurring due to pathogens. There are two ways to stop that
reaction so that the infection will not spread:
(i) Prevention
(ii) Cure
(i) Sporadic
When the occurrence of the disease is not regular and is
infrequent, it is termed as sporadic.
(ii) Endemic
When the presence of the disease is constant in a particular
geographical area, it is known as endemic. Endemic turns into
a hyperendemic situation when a high level of disease occur
rence is observed.
(iii) Epidemic
When there is a sudden rise in the number of patients with
the same disease and within a particular area, it is termed as an
epidemic.
4 D ata A naly tics for Pandem ics: COVID-19
Sporadic
Irregular occurrence
of disease
Endemic
When a presence of disease is constant
and increasing
Epidemic
A disease covering a particular area
Pandemic
A disease covering larger geographical area
(iv) Pandemic
When epidemics affect larger geographical areas (including
multiple countries and continents), it is known as a pandemic.
A disease takes the form of an epidemic when the following two con
ditions are met. First is when several people are affected by an illness/
disease that has a similar nature of the disease and the same root
cause, and the second is when the number of infected people rapidly
increase over a period. When the epidemic crosses local boundar
ies and covers a wide geological area at the same time, it becomes a
pandemic. A disease is listed under the category of pandemic because
of its infectious nature. A pandemic does not give any information
about the severity and impact of the disease. It merely states the fact
that people across a wide geographical area are being infected with
the disease.
One more term that is majorly used while studying infectious
diseases is “outbreak.” Outbreak happens when a sudden rise in the
number of patients is observed. Outbreaks can last a few days, weeks,
or months. A pandemic is also sometimes referred to as an outbreak.
C o v i D -19 o u t b r e a k 5
Statistics
10000000
Death count
10000000
150000
0 1500000
Black
Death Smallpox
Fifth
Cholera
(a) Statistics from the early 1300s to the late 1800s
Statistics
100000000
100000000 Death count
1500000
0 1000000 36700000
HIV/AIDS
(b) Statistics from the 1900s
Statistics
Death count
1000000 744 575,500
0 659
11,323
SARS
Swine
flu MERS West
influenza Africa
Ebola
(c) Statistics from the 2000s