Probability And Statistics

Eng./ Mohammed Abdulmonem Borg

Probability
Important definitions
Definitions:
1) Random Experiment:
An experiment that can result in different outcomes, even though it is
repeated in the same manner every time.
2) Sample Space:
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. The sample space is
denoted as 𝑆.
3) Event:
An event is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment.
Basic Concepts
Basic Concepts:
▪ S = Sample space
▪ 𝜙 = empty set or null set
▪ 𝐴∪𝐵=𝐴+𝐵−𝐴∩𝐵
▪ 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶=𝐴+𝐵+𝐶−𝐴∩𝐵−𝐴∩𝐶−𝐵∩𝐶+𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶
▪ 𝐴’ = S − 𝐴
▪ 𝐴 − 𝐵 = 𝐴 − (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
▪ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙 Case of mutually exclusive
Distributive Law:
▪ 𝐴 ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶)
▪ 𝐴 ∩ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)
De Morgan’s Laws:
▪ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)’ = 𝐴’ ∩ 𝐵’
▪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)’ = 𝐴’ ∪ 𝐵’
Example (1):
A fair coin is tossed two times. Let,
A= event that the tail will appear on the second throw.
B= event that the tail will appear on both throws.
Express the Sample Space by listing the elements and by a tree diagram.
Find Event A and B. Draw a Venn Diagram to show events A and B.
Solution:
S
S= {HH,TH,HT,TT} A H T

A= {HT,TT} B={TT}.
B H T H T

Venn Diagram Tree Diagram

Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(a) A ∪ C
Solution:
S
A ∪ C = {0,2,3,4,5,6,8} D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(b) A ∩ B
Solution:
S
A∩B=Ф D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(c) C’
Solution:
S
C’= {0,1,6,7,8,9} D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(d) (C’ ∩ D) ∪ B
Solution:
S
(C’ ∩ D) ∪ B = {1,3,5,6,7,9} D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(e) (S ∩ C)’
Solution:
S
(S ∩ C)’ = {0,1,6,7,8,9} D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (2):
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A ={0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9},
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(f) A ∩ C ∩ D’
Solution:
S
A ∩ C ∩ D’ = {2,4} D
A 1
6 B
7
0 8 9
2 5
4 3

C
Example (3):
A pair of dice I, II is thrown. Let,
A= event that the outcome on die I is less than 5.
B = event that the outcome on die II is more than 5.
C = event that the sum of the outcome is more than 11.
Express the Sample Space by the rule method. List elements in events A, B
and C.
Solution:
𝑆 = (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℕ ห1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 6 , 1 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 6 , where 𝑥 represent the outcome on die I
and 𝑦 represents the outcome on die II.
Example (3): 6
Solution:
5
“A”= event that the outcome
on die I is less than 5.
4
Die II
3

1 2 3 4 5 6

Die I
Example (3): 6
Solution:
5
“B” = event that the outcome
on die II is more than 5.
4
Die II
3

1 2 3 4 5 6

Die I
Example (3): 6
Solution:
5
C = event that the sum of the
outcome is more than 11.
4
Die II
3

1 2 3 4 5 6

Die I
Example (4):
A coin is tossed then a die is rolled. Find the number of outcomes for the
sample space.
Solution:

𝑛1 = 2 , 𝑛2 = 6
Number of outcomes = 𝑛1 ∗ 𝑛2 = 2 ∗ 6 = 12
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(a) A : an event such that the card drawn is Heart.

Solution:
A= {2H,…,10H,JH,QH,KH,AH}
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(b) B: an event such that the card drawn is a Jack.

Solution:
B= {JH,JS,JC,JD}
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(c) C: an event such that the card drawn is a number
divisible by 5.
Solution:
C= {5H,10H,5S,10S,5C,10C,5D,10D}
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(d) D: an event such that the card drawn is Jack and Heart.

Solution:
D= {JH}

Which is A ∩ B
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(e) E: an event such that the card drawn is either a
number divisible by 5 or a Jack.
Solution:
E= {5H,10H,5S,10S,5C,10C,5D,10D,JH,JS,JC,JD}

Which is B ∪ C
Example (5):
A card is drawn from a deck of cards at random. list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events.
(f) F: an event such that the card drawn is either a
Heart or a number divisible by 5.
Solution:
F= {2H,...,10H,JH,QH,KH,AH,5S,10S,5C,10C,5D,10D}

Which is A ∪ C
How to find the number of outcomes?
How to find the number of outcomes?
Case (I): Repetition is allowed Use the Multiplicative Rule

Case (II): Repetition is not allowed

order matters Order doesn’t matter

Multiplicative Rule Permutations (nPr) Combinations (nCr)

Example (6):
How many different 4-color code stripes can be made on a sports car if each code
consists of the colors green, red, blue, and white? All colors are used only once ?

Solution:

Using the permutation:

𝑛! 4! 4∗3∗2∗1
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = = = = 24
𝑛−𝑟 ! 4−4 ! 1
Example (7):
The manager of a department store chain wishes to make four-digit identification cards
for her employees. Find How many different cards can be made if she uses the digits 1,
2, 3, 4, and 5 if:

(a) Repetition of the number is allowed. How many of these are even?
Solution:
𝑛1 = 𝑛2 = 𝑛3 = 𝑛4 = 5
Number of different cards = 𝑛1 ∗ 𝑛2 ∗ 𝑛3 ∗ 𝑛4 = 5 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 = 625
To find the Number of even cards∶
𝑛1 = 2 and 𝑛2 = 𝑛3 = 𝑛4 = 5
Number of even cards = 2 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 = 250
Example (7):
The manager of a department store chain wishes to make four-digit identification cards
for her employees. Find How many different cards can be made if she uses the digits 1,
2, 3, 4, and 5 if:

(b) Repetition is not allowed. How many of these is odd?

Solution:
Using the permutations:
𝑛! 5! 5∗4∗3∗2∗1
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = = = = 120
𝑛−𝑟 ! 5−4 ! 1
To find the Number of odd cards∶
𝑛1 = 3 , 𝑛2 = 4 , 𝑛3 = 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛4 = 2
Number of odd cards = 3 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 = 72
Example (8):
A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories on an evening show. One
story will be the lead story, one will be the second story, and the last will be a
closing story. If the director has a total of 8 stories to choose from, how many
possible ways can the program be set up?
Solution:
Using the permutations:
𝑛! 8! 8∗7∗6∗5∗4∗3∗2∗1
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = = = = 336
𝑛−𝑟 ! 8−3 ! 5∗4∗3∗2∗1
Example (9):
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides that he can use 3
reviews in his newspaper. How many different ways can these 3 reviews be
selected?
Solution:
Using the combinations:
𝑛! 8! 8∗7∗6∗5∗4∗3∗2∗1
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = = = 56
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 3! 8 − 3 ! (3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)(5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)
Example (10):
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3 women and 2 men is
to be chosen. How many different possibilities are there?
Solution:
Using the combinations:
𝑛! 5! 5∗4∗3∗2∗1
𝑭𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = = = 10
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 2! 5 − 2 ! (2 ∗ 1)(3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)

𝑛! 7! 7∗6∗5∗4∗3∗2∗1
𝑭𝒐𝒓 𝒘𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = = = 35
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 3! 7 − 3 ! (3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)(4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)
∴ Total number of ways to choose the committee= 10 ∗ 35 = 350