Chapter 11

11.1 H 0 : The drug is not safe and effective

H1 : The drug is safe and effective

11.2 H 0 : I will complete the Ph.D.

H1 : I will not be able to complete the Ph.D.

11.3 H 0 : The batter will hit one deep

H1 : The batter will not hit one deep

11.4 H 0 : Risky investment is more successful

H1 : Risky investment is not more successful

11.5 H1 : The plane is on fire

H1 : The plane is not on fire

11.6 The defendant in both cases was O. J. Simpson. The verdicts were logical because in the
criminal trial the amount of evidence to convict is greater than the amount of evidence required in
a civil trial. The two juries concluded that there was enough (preponderance of) evidence in the
civil trial, but not enough evidence (beyond a reasonable doubt) in the criminal trial.

All p-values and probabilities of Type II errors were calculated manually using Table 3 in
Appendix B.

11.7 Rejection region: z < −z .005 = −2.575 or z > z.005 = 2.575

x −µ 980 − 1000
z= = = −1.00
σ/ n 200 / 100
p-value = 2P(Z < –1.00) = 2(.1587) = .3174
There is not enough evidence to infer that µ ≠ 1000.

247
11.8 Rejection region: z > z.03 = 1.88

x −µ 51 − 50
z= = = .60
σ/ n 5/ 9
p-value = P(Z > .60) = 1 – .7257 = .2743
There is not enough evidence to infer that µ > 50.

11.9 Rejection region: z < −z .10 = −1.28

x −µ 14.3 − 15
z= = = −1.75
σ/ n 2 / 25
p-value = P(Z < –1.75) = .0401
There is enough evidence to infer that µ < 15.

11.10 Rejection region: z < −z .025 = −1.96 or z > z.025 = 1.96

x −µ 100 − 100
z= = =0
σ/ n 10 / 100
p-value = 2P(Z > 0) = 2(.5) = 1.00

248
There is not enough evidence to infer that µ ≠ 100.

11.11 Rejection region: z > z.01 = 2.33

x −µ 80 − 70
z= = = 5.00
σ/ n 20 / 100
p-value = p(z > 5.00) = 0
There is enough evidence to infer that µ > 70.

11.12 Rejection region: z < −z .05 = −1.645

x −µ 48 − 50
z= = = −1.33
σ/ n 15 / 100
p-value = P(Z < –1.33) = .0918
There is not enough evidence to infer that µ < 50.

x−µ 240 − 250

11.13 z = = = −2.09
σ/ n 40 / 70
p-value = P(Z < -2.09) = .0182

249
 x−µ 1525 − 1500
11.14 z = = = 1.27
σ/ n 220 / 125
p-value = 2P(Z > 1.27) = 2(1-P(Z < 1.27) = 2(1 - .8980) = 2(.1020) = .2040

x−µ 8.5 − 7.5

11.15 z = = = 3.65
σ/ n 1.5 / 30
p-value = P(Z > 3.65) = 0.

x−µ 1.5 − 0
11.16 z = = = 1.50
σ/ n 10 / 100
p-value = P(Z > 1.50) = 1 – P(Z < 1.5) = 1 - .9332 = .0668

x−µ −2.3 − 0
11.17 z = = = −1.84
σ/ n 25 / 400
p-value = P(Z < -1.84) = .0329

x−µ −5.5 − 0
11.18 z = = = −1.04
σ/ n 50 / 90
p-value = 2P(Z < -1.04) = 2(.1492) = .2984

x−µ −4 − (−5)
11.19 z = = = 1.00
σ/ n 5 / 25
p-value =2P(Z > 1.00) = 2(1 – P(Z < 1.00) = 2(1 - .8413) = .3174

11.20 a. No because the test statistic will be negative.

b The p-value will be larger than .5.

x −µ 52 − 50
11.21a. z = = = 1.20
σ/ n 5/ 9
p-value = P(Z > 1.20) = 1 – .8849 = .1151
x−µ 52 − 50
b. z = = = 2.00
σ/ n 5 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 2.00) = .5 – .4772 = .0228.
x −µ 52 − 50
c. z = = = 4.00
σ/ n 5 / 100
p-value = P(Z > 4.00) = 0.

250
d. The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 190 − 200
11.22a. z = = = −.60
σ/ n 50 / 9
p-value = P(Z < –.60) = .5 – .2257 = .2743
x −µ 190 − 200
b. z = = = −1.00
σ/ n 30 / 9
p-value = P(Z < –1.00) = .1587
x −µ 190 − 200
c z= = = −3.00
σ/ n 10 / 9
p-value = P(Z < –3.00) = .0013
d. The value of the test statistic decreases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 21 − 20
11.23 a. z = = = 1.00
σ/ n 5 / 25
p-value = 2P(Z > 1.00) = 2(1 – .8413) = .3174
x −µ 22 − 20
b. z = = = 2.00
σ/ n 5 / 25
p-value = 2P(Z > 2.00) = 2(1 – .9772) = .0456
x −µ 23 − 20
c. z = = = 3.00
σ/ n 5 / 25
p-value = 2P(Z > 3.00) = 2(1 – .9987) = .0026
d. The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 99 − 100
11.24 a. z = = = −1.25
σ/ n 8 / 100
p-value = 2P(Z < –1.25) = 2(.1056) = .2112
x −µ 99 − 100
b. z = = = −.88
σ/ n 8 / 50
p-value = 2P(Z < –.88) = 2(.1894) = .3788
x −µ 99 − 100
c. z = = = −.56
σ/ n 8 / 20
p-value = 2P(Z < –.56) = 2(.2877) = .5754
d. The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value increases.

x −µ 990 − 1000
11.25 a. z = = = −4.00
σ/ n 25 / 100

251
p-value = P(Z < –4.00) = 0
x −µ 990 − 1000
b. z = = = −2.00
σ/ n 50 / 100
p-value = P(Z < –2.00) = .0228
x −µ 990 − 1000
c. z = = = −1.00
σ/ n 100 / 100
p-value = P(Z < –1.00) = .1587
d. d. The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value increases.

x −µ 72 − 60
11.26 a. z = = = 3.00
σ/ n 20 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 3.00) = 1 – .9987 = .0013
x −µ 68 − 60
b. z = = = 2.00
σ/ n 20 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 2.00) = 1 – .9772 = .0228
x −µ 64 − 60
c. z = = = 1.00
σ/ n 20 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 1.00) = 1 – .8413 = .1587
d. The value of the test statistic decreases and the p-value increases.

x −µ 178 − 170
11.27 a z = = = 1.74
σ/ n 65 / 200
p-valu.e = P(Z > 1.74) = 1 – .9591 = .0409
x −µ 178 − 170
b. z = = = 1.23
σ/ n 65 / 100
p-value = P(Z > 1.23) = 1 – .8907 = .1093
c. The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 178 − 170
11.28 a z = = = 4.57
σ/ n 35 / 400
p-value = P(Z > 4.57) = 0.
x −µ 178 − 170
b z= = = 1.60
σ/ n 100 / 400
p-value = P(Z > 1.60) = 1 – .9452 = .0548
The value of the test statistic decreases and the p-value increases.

11.29 a Yes, because the test statistic will be positive.

252
b The p-value will be larger than .5.

x −µ 21.63 − 22
11.30 a z = = = −.62
σ/ n 6 / 100
p-value = P(Z < –.62) = .2676
x −µ 21.63 − 22
bz = = = −1.38
σ/ n 6 / 500
p-value = P(Z < –1.38) = .0838
The value of the test statistic decreases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 21.63 − 22
11.31 a z = = = −1.83
σ/ n 3 / 220
p-value = P(Z < –1.83) = .0336
x −µ 21.63 − 22
bz = = = −.46
σ/ n 12 / 220
p-value = P(Z < –.46) = .3228
The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value increases.

x − 22
11.32 x z= p-value
6 / 220
22.0 0 .5
21.8 –.49 .3121
21.6 –.99 .1611
21.4 –1.48 .0694
21.2 –1.98 .0239
21.0 –2.47 .0068
20.8 –2.97 .0015
20.6 –3.46 0
20.4 –3.96 0

x −µ 17.55 − 17.09
11.33 a z = = = .84
σ/ n 3.87 / 50
p-value = 2P(Z > .84) = 2(1 – .7995) = 2(.2005) = .4010
x −µ 17.55 − 17.09
bz = = = 2.38
σ/ n 3.87 / 400
p-value = 2P(Z > 2.38) = 2(1 – .9913) = 2(.0087) = .0174
The value of the test statistic increases and the p-value decreases.

x −µ 17.55 − 17.09
11.34 a z = = = 2.30
σ/ n 2 / 100
p-value = 2P(Z > 2.30) = 2(1 – .9893) = 2(.0107) = .0214

253
 x −µ 17.55 − 17.09
bz = = = .46
σ/ n 10 / 100
p-value = 2P(Z > .46) = 2(1 – .6772) = 2(.3228) = .6456
The value of the test statistic decreases and the p-value increases.

x − 17.09
11.35a x z= p-value
3.87 / 100
15.0 –5.40 0
15.5 –4.11 0
16.0 –2.82 .0048
16.5 –1.52 .1286
17.0 –.23 .8180
17.5 1.06 .2892
18.0 2.35 .0188
18.5 3.64 0
19.0 4.94 0

11.36 H0 : µ = 5

H1 : µ > 5

x −µ 6−5
z= = = 2.11
σ/ n 1.5 / 10
p-value = P(Z > 2.11) = 1 – .9826 = .0174
There is enough evidence to infer that the mean is greater than 5 cases.

11.37 H 0 : µ = 50

H 1 : µ > 50

x−µ 59.17 − 50
z= = = 3.89
σ/ n 10 / 18
p-value = P(Z > 3.89) = 0
There is enough evidence to infer that the mean is greater than 50 minutes.

11.38 H 0 : µ = 12

H 1 : µ < 12

x −µ 11.00 − 12
z= = = −1.29
σ/ n 3 / 15
p-value = P(Z < –1.29) = .0985
There is enough evidence to infer that the average number of golf balls lost is less than 12.

11.39 H 0 : µ = 36

254
 H 1 : µ < 36

x−µ 34.25 − 36
z= = = −.76
σ/ n 8 / 12
p-value = P(Z < –.76) = .2236
There is not enough evidence to infer that the average student spent less time than recommended.

11.40 H0 : µ = 6

H1 : µ > 6

x −µ 6.60 − 6
z= = = .95
σ/ n 2 / 10
p-value = P(Z > .95) = 1 – .8289 = .1711
There is not enough evidence to infer that the mean time spent putting on the 18th green is greater
than 6 minutes.

11.41 H 0 : µ = .50

H 1 : µ ≠ .50

x −µ .493 − .50
z= = = −.44
σ/ n .05 / 10
p-value = 2P(Z < –.44) = 2(.3300) = .6600
There is not enough evidence to infer that the mean diameter is not .50 inch.

11.42 H 0 : µ = 25

H 1 : µ > 25

x −µ 30.22 − 25
z= = = 1.85
σ/ n 12 / 18
p-value = P(Z > 1.85) = 1 – .9678 =.0322
There is not enough evidence to conclude that the manager is correct.

11.43 H 0 : µ = 5,000

H 1 : µ > 5,000

x −µ 5,065 − 5,000
z= = = 1.62
σ/ n 400 / 100
p-value = P(Z > 1.62) = 1 – .9474 =.0526
There is not enough evidence to conclude that the claim is true.

255
11.44 H 0 : µ = 30,000

H 1 : µ < 30,000

x −µ 29,120 − 30,000
z= = = −2.06
σ/ n 8,000 / 350
p-value = P(Z < –2.06) = .0197
There is enough evidence to infer that the president is correct

11.45 H 0 : µ = 560

H 1 : µ > 560

x −µ 569.0 − 560
z= = = .80
σ/ n 50 / 20
p-value = P(Z > .80) = 1 – .7881 = .2119
There is not enough evidence to conclude that the dean’s claim is true.

11.46a H 0 : µ = 17.85

H 1 : µ > 17.85

x −µ 19.13 − 17.85
z= = = 1.65
σ/ n 3.87 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 1.65) = 1 – .9505 = .0495
There is enough evidence to infer that the campaign was successful.
b We must assume that the population standard deviation is unchanged.

11.47 H0 : µ = 0

H1 : µ < 0

x −µ −1.20 − 0
z= = = −1.41
σ/ n 6 / 50
p-value = P(Z < –1.41) = .0793
There is not enough evidence to conclude that the safety equipment is effective.

11.48 H 0 : µ = 55

H 1 : µ > 55

x −µ 55.80 − 55
z= = = 2.26
σ/ n 5 / 200
p-value = P(Z > 2.26) = 1 – .9881 = .0119
There is not enough evidence to support the officer’s belief.

256
11.49 H0 : µ = 4

H1 : µ > 4

x −µ 5.04 − 4
z= = = 4.90
σ/ n 1.5 / 50
p-value = P(Z > 4.90) = 0
There is enough evidence to infer that the expert is correct.

11.50 H 0 : µ = 20

H 1 : µ < 20

x −µ 19.39 − 20
z= = = −1.22
σ/ n 3 / 36
p-value = P(Z < –1.22) = .1112
There is not enough evidence to infer that the manager is correct.

11.51 H 0 : µ = 100

H 1 : µ > 100

x −µ 105.7 − 100
z= = = 2.25
σ/ n 16 / 40
p-value = P(Z > 2.25) = 1 – .9878 = .0122
There is not enough evidence to infer that the site is acceptable.

11.52 H0 : µ = 4

H1 : µ ≠ 4

x −µ 4.84 − 4
z= = = 3.33
σ/ n 2 / 63
p-value = 2P(Z > 3.33) = 0
There is enough evidence to infer that the average Alpine skier does not ski 4 times per year.

11.53 H0 : µ = 5

H1 : µ > 5

x −µ 5.64 − 5
z= = = 1.60
σ/ n 2 / 25
p-value = P(Z > 1.60) = 1 – .9452 = .0548
There is enough evidence to infer that the golf professional’s claim is true.

257
11.54 H 0 : µ = 32

H 1 : µ < 32

x −µ 29.92 − 32
z= = = −2.73
σ/ n 8 / 110
p-value = P(Z < –2.73) = 1– .9968 = .0032
There is enough evidence to infer that there has been a decrease in the mean time away from
desks. A type I error occurs when we conclude that the plan decreases the mean time away from
desks when it actually does not. This error is quite expensive. Consequently we demand a low p-
value. The p-value is small enough to infer that there has been a decrease.

11.55 H 0 : µ = 230

H 1 : µ > 230

x −µ 231.56 − 230
z= = = 1.56
σ/ n 10 / 100
p-value = P(Z > 1.56) = 1 – .9406 = .0594
There is not enough evidence to infer that Nike is correct.

11.56 H 0 : µ = 10

H 1 : µ > 10

x−µ 10.44 − 10
z= = = 1.93
σ/ n 3 / 174
p-value = P(Z > 1.93) = 1 – .9732 = .0268
There is enough evidence to infer that heating costs increased faster than inflation.

11.57 H 0 : µ = 30

H1 : µ ≠ 30

x−µ 29.51 − 30
z= = = −1.63
σ/ n 5 / 277
p-value = 2P(Z < -1.63) = 2(.0516) = .1032
There is not enough evidence to infer that the average mean monthly expenditures on bakery
products is not equal to $30.

11.58 H 0 : µ = 125,000

H 1 : µ > 125,000

258
 x−µ 126,837 − 125,000
z= = = 1.49
σ/ n 25,000 / 410
p-value = P(Z > 1.49) = 1 – .9319 = .0681
There is not enough evidence to infer that mean value of 401k accounts is greater than $125,000.

11.59 H 0 : µ = 7500

H 1 : µ > 7500

x−µ 7625 − 7500

z= = = 1.33
σ/ n 1200 / 163
p-value = P(Z > 1.33) = 1 – .9082 = .0918
There is not enough evidence to infer that the mean income exceeds $7500.

x −µ x −µ
11.60 Rejection region: > zα / 2 or < −z α / 2
σ/ n σ/ n
x − 200 x − 200
> z .025 = 1.96 or < –1.96
10 / 100 10 / 100
x > 201.96 or x < 198.04

β = P(198.04 < x < 201.96 given µ = 203)

 198.04 − 203 x −µ 201.96 − 203 
= P < <  = P( –4.96 < z < –1.04) = .1492 – 0 = .1492

 10 / 100 σ/ n 10 / 100 

x −µ
11.61 Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 1000
> z .01 = 2.33
50 / 25
x > 1023.3
 x − µ 1023.3 − 1050 
β = P( x < 1023.3 given µ = 1050) = P <  = P(z < –2.67) = .0038
 σ/ n 50 / 25 

x −µ
11.62 Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 50
< −z.05 = −1.645
10 / 40
x < 47.40
 x −µ 47.40 − 48 
β = P( x > 47.40 given µ = 48) = P >  = P(z > –.38) = 1 − .3520 = .6480

σ/ n 10 / 40 

11.63
Exercise 11.48

259
Exercise 11.49

Exercise 11.50

260
 x −µ
11.64 a. Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 100
> z .10 = 1.28
20 / 100
x > 102.56
 x − µ 102.56 − 102 
β = P( x < 102.56 given µ = 102) = P <  = P(z < .28) = .6103

σ/ n 20 / 100 
x −µ
b. Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 100
> z .02 = 2.55
20 / 100
x > 104.11
 x − µ 104.11 − 102 
β = P( x < 104.11 given µ = 102) = P <  = P(z < 1.06) = .8554

σ/ n 20 / 100 
c. β increases.

x −µ
11.65 a. Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 40
< −z .05 = −1.645
5 / 25
x < 38.36
 x −µ 38.36 − 37 
β = P( x > 38.36 given µ = 37) = P >  = P(z > 1.36) = 1 – .9131 = .0869

σ/ n 5 / 25 
x −µ
b. Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 40
< −z .15 = −1.04
5 / 25
x < 38.96
 x −µ 38.96 − 37 
β = P( x > 38.96 given µ = 37) = P >  = P(z > 1.96) = 1 – .9750 = .0250

σ/ n 5 / 25 
c. β decreases.

11.66
Exercise 11.52 a

261
Exercise 11.52 b

Exercise 11.53 a

262
Exercise 11.53 b

x −µ
11.67 a. Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 200
< −z .10 = −1.28
30 / 25
x < 192.31
 x − µ 192.31 − 196 
β = P( x > 192.31 given µ = 196) = P >  = P(z > –.62) = 1 − .2676 = .7324

σ/ n 30 / 25 
x −µ
b. Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 200
< −z .10 = −1.28
30 / 100
x < 196.16
 x − µ 196.16 − 196 
β = P( x > 196.16 given µ = 196) = P >  = P(z > .05) = 1 – .5199 = .4801

σ/ n 30 / 100 

263
c. β decreases.

x −µ
11.68 a. Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 300
> z .05 = 1.645
50 / 81
x > 309.14
 x − µ 309.14 − 310 
β = P( x < 309.14 given µ = 310) = P <  = P(z < –.15) = .4404

σ/ n 50 / 81 
x −µ
b. Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 300
> z .05 = 1.645
50 / 36
x > 313.71
 x −µ 313.71 − 310 
β = P( x < 313.71 given µ = 310) = P <  = P(z < .45) = .6736

σ/ n 50 / 36 
c. β increases.

11.69
Exercise 11.55 a

Exercise 11.55 b

264
Exercise 11.56 a

Exercise 11.56 b

265
11.70

11.71

266
11.72 H 0 : µ = 170

H 1 : µ < 170
A Type I error occurs when we conclude that the new system is not cost effective when it actually
is. A Type II error occurs when we conclude that the new system is cost effective when it actually
is not.

The test statistic is the same. However, the p-value equals 1 minus the p-value calculated Example
11.1. That is,
p-value = 1 – .0069 = .9931
We conclude that there is no evidence to infer that the mean is less than 170. That is, there is no
evidence to infer that the new system will not be cost effective.

x −µ
11.73 Rejection region: < − zα
σ/ n
x −0
< −z .10 = −1.28
6 / 50
x < –1.09

 x −µ − 1.09 − (−2) 
β = P( x > –1.09 given µ = –2) = P >  = P(z > 1.07) = 1 – .8577 = .1423

σ/ n 6 / 50 
β can be decreased by increasing α and/or increasing the sample size.

267
 x −µ
11.74 Rejection region: < −z α
σ/ n
x − 22
< −z .10 = −1.28
6 / 220
x < 21.48

 x −µ 21.48 − 21 
β = P( x > 21.48 given µ = 21) = P >  = P(z > 1.19) =1 – .8830 = .1170

σ/ n 6 / 220 
The company can decide whether the sample size and significance level are appropriate.

x −µ
11.75 Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 100
> z .01 = 2.33
16 / 40
x > 105.89
 x − µ 105.89 − 104 
β = P( x < 105.89 given µ = 104) = P <  = P(z < .75) = .7734

σ/ n 16 / 40 

x −µ
11.76 Rejection region: < − zα
σ/ n
x − 32
< −z .05 = −1.645
8 / 110
x < 30.75

 x −µ 30.75 − 30) 
β = P( x > 30.75 given µ = 30) = P >  = P(z > .98) = 1 – .8365 = .1635

σ/ n 8 / 110 
β can be decreased by increasing α and/or increasing the sample size.

x −µ
11.77 i Rejection region: < − zα
σ/ n
x − 10
< −z .01 = −2.33
3 / 100
x < 9.30

 x −µ 9.30 − 9 
β = P( x > 9.30 given µ = 9) = P >  = P(z > 1) = 1 – .8413 = .1587

 σ / n 3 / 100 
x −µ
ii Rejection region: < − zα
σ/ n
x − 10
< −z .05 = −1.645
3 / 75

268
x < 9.43

 x −µ 9.43 − 9 
β = P( x > 9.43 given µ = 9) = P >  = P(z > 1.24) = 1 – .8925 = .1075

 σ / n 3 / 75 
x −µ
iii Rejection region: < − zα
σ/ n
x − 10
< −z .10 = −1.28
3 / 50
x < 9.46
 x −µ 9.46 − 9 
β = P( x > 9.46 given µ = 9) = P >  = P(z > 1.08) = 1 – .8599 = .1401

 σ / n 3 / 50 
Plan ii has the lowest probability of a type II error.

11.78 A Type I error occurs when we conclude that the site is feasible when it is not. The
consequence of this decision is to conduct further testing. A Type II error occurs when we do not
conclude that a site is feasible when it actually is. We will do no further testing on this site, and as
a result we will not build on a good site. If there are few other possible sits, this could be an
expensive mistake.

11.79 H 0 : µ = 20

H 1 : µ > 25

x −µ
Rejection region: > zα
σ/ n
x − 20
> z .01 = 2.33
8 / 25
x > 23.72
 x −µ 23.72 − 25 
β = P( x < 23.72 given µ = 25) = P <  = P(z < –.80) = .2119

σ/ n 8 / 25 
The process can be improved by increasing the sample size.

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