Project Evaluation and

Management
Resource Person
Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal.
Topic 6
Project Time
Management
Resource Person
Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal.
Project Time Management
“Project Time Management includes the processes required
to manage the timely completion of the project.” PMI
 The Project Time Management processes and their associated
tools and techniques are documented in the schedule
management plan.
 Some of the better known scheduling methods include;
precedence diagram (network model), critical path method
(CPM), Programming evaluation and review technique
(PERT), Graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT)
and critical chain method (CCM).
Integration of
Knowledge Areas &
Processes Groups
Knowledge Areas &
Process Groups
Mapping
PMBOK 5th Edition, page 61
Process in
Project Time Management
1. Plan Schedule Management
2. Define Activities
3. Sequence Activities
4. Estimate Activity Resources
5. Estimate Activity Duration
6. Develop Schedule
7. Control Schedule
Processes in Project Time Management
Monitoring &
Controlling Processes
Planning
Processes

Enter phase/ Initiating Closing Exit phase/

Start project Processes Processes End project

Executing
Processes

Process
Knowledge
Area Monitoring &
Initiating Planning Executing Closing
Control
Plan Time Management
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Time Activity Resource Estimating
Schedule Control
Activity Duration Estimating
Schedule Development
Processes in Project Time Management
Following are performed in project scope management plan.

 Plan Scope Management— Process of establishing the

policies, procedures, and documentation for planning,
developing, managing, executing, and controlling the project
schedule.

 Define Activities—Process of identifying and documenting

the specific actions to be performed to produce the project
deliverables.

 Sequence Activities—The process of identifying and

documenting relationships among the project activities.
Processes in Project Time Management
 Estimate Activity Resources—Process of estimating the type
and quantities of material, human resources, equipment, or
supplies required to perform each activity

 Estimate Activity Duration —Process of estimating the number

of work periods needed to complete individual activities with
estimated resources.

 Develop Schedule —Process of analyzing activity sequences,

durations, resource requirements, and schedule constraints to
create the project schedule model.

 Control Activities—The process of monitoring the status of

project activities to update project progress and manage changes to
the schedule baseline to achieve the plan.
Schedule Model, Method and Tools
 A schedule model is a representation of the plan for executing
the project’s activities including
 durations,
 dependencies, and
 other planning information,

used to produce project schedules along with other scheduling

artifacts.
 The schedule management plan identifies a scheduling
method and scheduling tool, and sets the format and
establishes criteria for developing and controlling the project
schedule.
Plan, Estimate and Schedule
Plan: Identify activities. No specific start and end
dates.

Estimating: Determining the size & duration of

activities.

Schedule: Adds specific start and end dates,

relationships, and resources.
1. Plan Schedule
Management
Plan Schedule Management

The process of establishing the policies, procedures, and

documentation for planning, developing, managing, executing,
and controlling the project schedule.
Tools &
Inputs Outputs
Techniques
1. Project management 1. Expert judgment Schedule management
plan 2. Analytical techniques Plan
2. Project charter 3. Meetings
3. Enterprise
environmental factors
4. Organizational process
sssets
Plan Schedule Management
The schedule management plan can establish the following:

 Project schedule model development. (Methodology & Tool)

 Level of accuracy

 Units of measure

 Organizational procedures links

 Project schedule model maintenance

 Rules of performance measurement

 Reporting formats

 Process descriptions
2. Define Activities
Define Activities
 The process of identifying the specific actions to be performed
produce the project deliverables.
 Work package decomposed into activities (schedule activities)
Tools &
Inputs Outputs
Techniques
1. Schedule management 1. Decomposition 1. Activity list
plan 2. Rolling wave planning 2. Activity attributes
2. Scope baseline 3. Expert judgment 3. Milestone list
3. Enterprise
environmental factors
4. Organizational process
sssets
 Define Activities
 Rolling Wave Planning: progressive
elaboration planning where you do not to
plan activities until you start the project
management process for that phase is in the
project life cycle

 Activity Attributes : The activity identifier (ID), WBS ID, and activity
label or name, and when completed, may include activity codes, activity
description, predecessor activities, successor activities, logical relationships,
leads and lags, resource requirements, imposed dates, constraints, and
assumptions.

 Milestone List : Significant point or event in a project.(zero duration)

Define Activities
Activities for Frame Set Design & Development of new bicycle
 Frame Prototype
 Inspection
 Pipe bending
 Frame welding
 Grinding
 De-oiling
 Paint
 Baking
 Stickers and labeling
3. Sequence
Activities
Sequence Activities
Process of identifying and documenting relationship among the
project activities. (Network Diagram)

Tools &
Inputs Outputs
Techniques
1. Schedule management 1. Precedence 1. Project schedule
plan diagramming method network diagrams
2. Activity list (PDM) / Network
3. Activity attributes Diagram
2. Project documents
4. Milestone list 2. Dependency
update
determination
5. Project scope statement
3. Leads and lags
6. Enterprise
environmental factors
7. Organizational process
assets
Network Diagram
 Network (precedence) diagram – diagram of project
activities that shows sequential relationships by the use
of arrows and nodes.
 Activity-on-arrow (AOA) – a network diagram
convention in which arrows designate activities.
 Activity-on-node (AON) – a network diagram
convention in which nodes designate activities.
 Activities – steps in the project that consume
resources and/or time.
Network Diagram
 Events – the starting and finishing of activities, designated
by nodes in the AOA convention.

 Path - Sequence of activities that leads from the starting

node to the finishing node

 Critical path - The longest path; determines expected

project duration

 Critical activities - Activities on the critical path

 Slack - Allowable slippage for path; the difference the

length of path and the length of critical path
AON Vs. AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A comes before
(a) A B C B, which comes
before C A B C
A A
A and B must both
(b) C be completed
before C can start C
B B

B
B and C cannot
(c) A begin until A is B
completed A
C C
Network Conventions

a
b
c a

c
b

a c
a c

b Dummy
b d activity
Project Network Diagram

A Bank plans to establish a new Marketing Department

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessors
A Locate Facilities —
B Interview —
C Order Furniture A
D Remodel A
E Hire and Train B
F Furniture Setup C
G Move in D, E, F
Project Network – Activity on Node
Also called
Order
Precedence Diagraming Method
furniture
Furniture
Locate
facilities
C setup

A F
Move in
Remodel

S D G

Hire and
Interview train

B E
Project Network – Activity on Arrow
Also called
Arrow Diagraming Method
C: Order
furniture 4
F: Furniture
A: Locate 2 setup
facilities
D:
Remodel
1 5 6
G:
Move
B: in
Interview E: Hire
and train
3
Critical Path

4
Critical Path
2

Move in
1 5 6
1 week

3
Draw Network Diagram
Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing's - Activities and Predecessors
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessors
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G
Types of Dependencies
 Mandatory : (Hard Logic) Inherent in the nature of the work being
done or required by the contract.
E.g. You must build the foundation before you construct the frame.

 Discretionary : (Preferred, Preferential, Soft Logic) The way the team

prefers to set dependencies based on experience.
E.g. You may prefer to complete painting before laying carpet.

 External : Based on the needs or desires of a party outside the project.

E.g. Per local building code, wiring must be inspected before the walls
are enclosed

 Internal Dependency : This dependency is based on the needs of the

project and may be something the project team can control.
E.g. Workpieces or blanks are provided upon the submission of
machining chips.
Leads & Lags
 Leads : May be added to start an activity before the predecessor
activity is complete.
E.g. Coding can start 2 weeks before design finishes.

 Lag : Inserted waiting time between activities.

E.g. You must wait 3 days after pouring concrete before you
construct the frame for the house.
Predecessor Follower

Activity 1 Activity 1 Activity 2

Lag
Activity 2
Lead
Time Line Time Line
Precedence Diagramming Method
(PDM) / AON
 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) or Activity-on-Node
(AON)
 Method used in Critical Path Methodology(CPM)
 No dummy activities
 Logical relationship:
 Finish-to-Start (FS)
 Finish-to-Finish (FF)
 Start-to-Start (SS)
 Start-to-Finish (SF)
Precedence Diagramming Method
(PDM) / AON
 Example of PDM which showing logical relationship and leads or lags

 Other method to draw network diagram:

 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
 GERT: allows loops between activities
3. Estimate Activity
Resource
Estimate Activity Resource
Process of estimating the type and quantities of material, people,
equipment or supplies required to perform each activity.

Tools &
Inputs Outputs
Techniques
1. Schedule management 1. Expert judgment 1. Activity
plan 2. Alternative analysis Resource
2. Activity list 3. Published estimating Requirements
3. Activity attributes data 2. Resource
breakdown
4. Resource calendars 4. Bottom-up estimating structure
5. Risk register 5. Project management 3. Project documents
6. Activity cost estimates Software Updates
7. Enterprise
environmental factors
8. Organizational process
assets
Estimate Activity Resource
 Estimate Activity Resource
Activities for Frame Set
 Frame Prototype
A. Inspection
B. Pipe bending 1.1.1.1 De-oiling
1.1.1.1 Sprit 2litres Fine
C. Frame welding
1.1.1.1 Compressor with gun 1 pc. 0.5 bar
D. Grinding 1.1.1.1 Cloth for drying 1 pc. 2’x2’
E. De-oiling 1.1.1.2 Pipe Bending
F. Paint 1.1.1.2 Pipe bending jig 1 pc. General bush type
1.1.1.2 Pipe bending tool 1 pc. Tool steel bushing
G. Baking
1.1.1.3 Frame Welding
H. Stickers and labeling 1.1.1.3 Electric arc welding plant 1 pc. Medium size
1.1.1.3 Welding rods 5 pc. 10 mm
1.1.1.3 Hammer 1 pc. 3 kg.
4. Estimate Activity
Duration
Estimate Activity Resource
 Process of approximating the number of work periods to complete individual
activities with estimated resources.
 Schedule shall be as believable and realistic as possible (do not allow
padding)

Inputs
Tools &
Outputs
Techniques
1. Schedule management plan 1. Expert judgment 1. Activity duration
2. Activity list
2. Analogous estimating estimâtes
3. Activity attributes
4. Activity resource requirements 3. Parametric estimating
5. Resource calendars 2. Project documents
4. Three-point estimating
Updates
6. Project scope statement
7. Risk register 5. Group decision-making
8. Resource breakdown structure techniques
9. Enterprise environmental factors 6. Reserve analysis
10. Organizational process assets
Estimate Activity Resource
 Deterministic : Time estimates that are fairly certain.
 One point estimating: duration of similar activity in past
 Analogues estimating: use duration of past similar activity based
on institution. (Activity will take 20days±2days)
 Parametric estimating: use statistical relationship (Rs./sq. ft),
regression analysis and learning curve can be used.
 Probabilistic : Estimates of times that allow for variation
 Heuristics : experience based technique/rule of thumb
 Three-Point Estimating : estimation based on uncertainty and
risk (based optimistic, most likely and pessimistic time).
 Reserve analysis (buffer): includes contingency reserves
 Estimate Activity Resource: 3 Point Est.
 Also called Program Evaluation and Review technique (PERT)
 The use of beta distribution gives stronger consideration to the
most likely estimate.
 This technique uses a formula to create a weighted average for the
work to be done.
 The formula for beta distribution is

t p + 4 ⋅ t m + to t p − to  t p − to 
2

=T = ; S = ;V  
6 6  6 
tp = Pessimistic time, tm = Most Likely time, to = Optimistic time
T = Estimated time, S = Standard Deviation, V = Variance
Estimate Activity Resource: 3 Point Est.

Activity tP tm to Exp. Activity Standard Range

Duration Deviation

T= (P+M+O)/6 S = (O-P)/6 T - S, T + S
or T ± S

22.667 to 33.667
A 47 27 14 28.167 5.5
or 28.167 ± 5.5

61.667 8.0 53.667 to 69.667

B 89 60 41
or 61.667 ± 8.0
42.333 to 45.333
C 48 44 39 43.833 1.5 to 43.833 ± 1.5

D 42 37 29 34.333 to 38.667
36.500 2.167
or 36.5 ± 2.167
Estimate Activity Resource: 3 Point Est.

Activity tP tm to Exp. Activity Standard Range

Duration Deviation

T= (P+M+O)/6 S = (O-P)/6 T - S, T + S
or T ± S

22.667 to 33.667
A 47 27 14 28.167 5.5
or 28.167 ± 5.5

61.667 8.0 53.667 to 69.667

B 89 60 41
or 61.667 ± 8.0
42.333 to 45.333
C 48 44 39 43.833 1.5 to 43.833 ± 1.5

D 42 37 29 34.333 to 38.667
36.500 2.167
or 36.5 ± 2.167
5. Develop Schedule
Develop Schedule
 Process of analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource
requirements, and schedule constraints to create the project
schedule.

Inputs
Tools &
Outputs
Techniques
1. Schedule management plan
1. Schedule network 1. Schedule baseline
2. Activity list
analysis 2. Project schedule
3. Activity attributes
4. Project schedule network 2. Critical path method 3. Schedule data
diagrams 3. Critical chain method 4. Project calendars
5. Activity resource requirements
6. Resource calendars 4. Resource optimization 5. Project management
7. Activity duration estimates techniques plan updates
8. Project scope statement 5. Modeling techniques 6. Project documents
9. Risk register
6. Leads and lags updates
10. Project staff assignments
11. Resource breakdown structure 7. Schedule compression
12. Enterprise environmental factors 8. Scheduling tool
13. Organizational process assets
Resource Calendar (Input)
 Confirm availability of resources assigned
Resource Breakdown Structure - RBS (Input)
 Hierarchy of resources, available for the project
Develop Schedule
 Developing an acceptable project schedule is often an
iterative process.

 Schedule model is used to determine the planned start and

finish dates for project activities and milestones.

 It is common to have project staff assigned to the activities

review their assigned activities and confirm that the start
and finish dates present no conflict with resource .

 To calculate start and end dates, critical path method is

used.
Critical Path Method (CPM)
 It involves determining the longest path through the network
diagram, the earliest and latest an activity can start, and the
earliest and latest it can be completed.
 Helps prove how long the project will take

 Helps you determine where to focus your project management.

 Helps determine if an issue needs immediate attention

 Shows which activities have float and can therefore be delayed

without delaying the project

 Near-critical path is the path that has close in duration to

critical path
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at
which an activity can start, assuming all
predecessors have been completed
Earliest finish (EF) =earliest time at
which an activity can be finished
Latest start (LS) =latest time at which an
activity can start so as to not delay the
completion time of the entire project
Latest finish (LF) = latest time by which an activity has to be
finished so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project
Total Float (TF) = Available float to which an activity can be late,
which is only available for non-critical activities.
Critical Activity = Any activity on critical path
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Forward path is used to calculate ES and EF

4 Critical Activities 1, 2, 5 and 6

Critical Path
2

Move in
1 5 6
1 week

3
Backward path is used to calculate LS and LF
Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)

Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)

A Build internal components (-) 2
B Modify roof and floor (-) 3
C Construct collection stack (A) 2
D Pour concrete and install frame (A,B) 4
E Build high-temperature burner (C) 4
F Install pollution control system (C) 3
G Install air pollution device (D, E) 5
H Inspect and test (F, G) 2
Total Time (weeks) 25
 Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)
A Build internal components (-) 2
B Modify roof and floor (-) 3

Forward path Rules;

 Activity with no predecessor ES = 0
 Activity with one predecessor ESfollower= EFpredecessor
 Activity with more than one predecessor ESfollower= Max (EFpred1, EFpred2)
 For EF EF = ES + Duration
No predecessor, hence ES=0 0 2 2 EF = ES+D = 0 + 2 = 2

Start

3
B
Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)
A Build internal components (-) 2
B Modify roof and floor (-) 3

0 2 2
A

Start ES=0 EF = 0 + 3 = 3

0 3 3
B
Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)
A Build internal components (-) 2
B Modify roof and floor (-) 3
C Construct collection stack (A) 2

ESC= EFA=2 EF = 2 + 2= 4

0 2 2 2 2 4
A C

Start

0 3 3
B
Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)
A Build internal components (-) 2
B Modify roof and floor (-) 3
C Construct collection stack (A) 2
D Pour concrete and install frame (A,B) 4

0 2 2 2 2 4
A C

Start ESD= Max(EFA, EFB)=Max(2,3)=3

0 3 3 3 4 7 EFD= 3+4=7

B D
Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Activity Description (Predecessor) Time (weeks)
E Build high-temperature burner (C) 4
F Install pollution control system (C) 3
G Install air pollution device (D, E) 5
H Inspect and test (F, G) 2
4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
A C H
4 4 8
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 8 5 13

B D G
 Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Backward path Rules;
 Activity with no Follower LF = EF
 Activity with one follower LFpredecessor= LSfollower
 Activity with more than one follower LFpredecessor= Min (LSfoll1, LSfoll2)
 For LS LS = LF - Duration

4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
A C H
4 4 8 LS=LF-D 13 0 15

TF=LF-EF LF=EF
Start E
TF=LS-ES
0 3 3 3 4 7 8 5 13

B D G
 Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Backward path Rules;
 Activity with no Follower LF = EF
 Activity with one follower LFpredecessor= LSfollower
 Activity with more than one follower LFpredecessor= Min (LSfoll1, LSfoll2)
 For LS LS = LF - Duration

4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 2 2 0 4 13 0 15
4 4 8
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 4 0 8 8 5 13

B D G
1 1 4 4 1 8 8 0 13
 Example : Critical Path Method (CPM)
Backward path Rules;
 Activity with no Follower LF = EF
 Activity with one follower LFpredecessor= LSfollower
 Activity with more than one follower LFpredecessor= Min (LSfoll1, LSfoll2)
 For LS LS = LF - Duration

4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 2 2 0 4 13 0 15
4 4 8
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 4 0 8 8 5 13

B D G
1 1 4 4 1 8 8 0 13
 Types of Float
Float is a Project Resource and should be used wisely.
Slack or Total Float = Latest finish – Earliest start – Duration
= LF – EF = LS – ES
ES LF
Activity Duration Total
Float

LS EF

Free Float = Min[ES for following activity] - EF for the current

ESA LFA
‘A’ Activity Duration Total
Float

Free
Float ‘B’ Activity Duration
LSA EFA
ESB
Computing Float
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path

A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
Computing Float
4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 2 2 0 4 13 0 15
4 4 8
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 4 0 8 8 5 13

B D G
1 3 4 4 3 8 8 0 13

For Activity B: TFB= 1 – 0 = 4 – 3 = 1; FFB = 3 – 3 = 0

For Activity D: TFD= 4 – 3 = 8 – 7 = 1; FFD = 8 – 7 = 1
 Exercise : CPM
Activity Duration Predecessor
Q1: What is the duration of the critical path? 1 3 -

Q2: What is the float of activity 2 & 3 ? 2 3 1

3 6 1
Q3: What is the float of the path with the
4 8 2
longest float?
5 4 3,4

Q4: The resource working on activity 3 is replaced with another resource who is less
experienced. The activity will now take 10 weeks. How will this affect the
project?
Q5: After some arguing between stakeholders, a new activity 6 is added to the
project. It will take 11 weeks to complete and must be completed before activity
5 and after activity 3. Management is concerned that adding the activity will
add 11 to the project. Another stakeholder argues the time will be less than 11
weeks, who is correct?
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Advantages
 Show precedence well
 Reveal interdependencies not shown in other techniques
 Ability to calculate critical path
 Ability to perform “what if” exercises

Disadvantages
 Default model assumes resources are unlimited
 You need to incorporate this yourself (Resource Dependencies)
when determining the “real” Critical Path
 Difficult to draw and to read on large projects
Critical Chain Method (CCM)
 It allows to place buffers on any project schedule path to
account for limited resources and project uncertainties
 It considers the effects of resource allocation, resource
optimization, resource leveling, and activity duration uncertainty
on the critical path.
 The resource-constrained critical path is known as the critical chain
 The critical chain method adds duration buffers that are non-
work schedule activities to manage uncertainty
 Feeding buffers thus protect the critical chain from slippage along
the feeding chains
 Critical Chain Method (CCM)

 Project Buffer: A project buffer protects the project deadline against violations in the
critical chain. Its size should depend on the expected changes and variability of the activities
on the critical chain.
 Feeding Buffer: A feeding buffer protects the critical chain against violations in the
feeding chain.
 Resource buffers: A resource buffer acts as a warning signal when a shift in resources will
occur on the critical chain.
Program Evaluation & Review
Technique (PERT)
 Based on idea that estimates are uncertain; uses duration ranges and
the probability of falling to a given range
 First is done on each task, then at project level
 Start with 3 point estimation for each task
 PERT makes two more assumptions:
 Project completion times follow a normal probability distribution
 Activity times are statistically independent
 Knowledge of Te and σp enables manager to compute:
 Probability that the project will be completed by a specified time
 Probability that the project will take longer than its scheduled
completion time
Program Evaluation & Review
Technique (PERT)
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
time in time time
months
2-4-6
b

3-4-5 3-5-7 5-7-9

d e f

4-6-8
h
Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
 Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)

Specified time – Path mean

Z = Path standard deviation

Z indicates how
many standard
deviations of the
path distribution
the specified time
is beyond the
expected path
duration.
 Path Probabilities

What is the
probability of completing the
project in 15 months?
What is the
probability of
completing the
project in 15
months?
Exercise : PERT
4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 2 2 0 4 13 0 15
4 4 8
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 4 0 8 8 5 13

B D G
1 1 4 4 1 8 8 0 13

Longest path = TACEGH = 2+2+4+5+2 = 15weeks

 Exercise : PERT
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time St. Deviation
Activity to tm tp
A 1 2 3 2 0.33
B 2 3 4 3 0.33
C 1 2 3 2 0.33
D 2 4 6 4 0.66
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.33
G 3 4 11 5 1.33
H 1 2 3 2 0.33
2
σp = ∑ 𝜎𝜎𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐,𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 = (𝜎𝜎𝐴𝐴 )2 + (𝜎𝜎𝐶𝐶 )2 + (𝜎𝜎𝐸𝐸 )2 + (𝜎𝜎𝐺𝐺 )2 + (𝜎𝜎𝐻𝐻 )2

σp = 3.10 = 1.76 weeks

 Exercise : PERT
Probability of Project Completion
(Milwaukee Paper Example)

What is the probability this project can be completed on or

before the 16 week deadline?

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 − 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐

𝑍𝑍 =
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷

16 − 15
𝑍𝑍 = = 0.57
1.76
Exercise : PERT
Probability of Project Completion
(Milwaukee Paper Example)

What is the expected duration of the

project, if the probability of
completion of project is 99%?
Probability
of 0.99
Probability of
0.01

2.33 Z
Standard
0 deviations 2.33

𝑇𝑇 − 15
2.33 =
1.76

𝑇𝑇 = 19.1𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤
PERT
Advantages

 Accounts for uncertainty

Disadvantages

 Time and labor intensive

 Assumption of unlimited resources is big issue

 Lack of functional ownership of estimates

 Mostly only used on large, complex project

Resource Leveling
 Resource leveling aims to minimize the period-by-period
variations in resource loading by shifting tasks within their
slack allowances.
 The purpose is to create a smoother distribution of resource
usage.
 Resource leveling, referred to as resource smoothing, has two
objectives:
 To determine the resource requirements so that they will be
available at the right time,
 To allow each activity to be scheduled with the smoothest
possible transition across usage levels.
Resource Optimization Technique
Step and Priorities in Resource Leveling
Prioritizing resource include applying resources to activities:
 with the smallest amount of slack
 with the smallest duration
 that start earliest
 with the most successor tasks
 requiring the most resources
Steps are;
1. Create a project activity network diagram
2. Create a table showing the resources required for each activity,
durations, and the total float available
3. Develop a time-phased resource loading table
4. Identify any resource conflicts and begin to smooth the
loading table using one or more heuristics
Example : Resource Leveling
1. Create a project activity network diagram
Resource limit is set at 8 hourly units per day.
Display the amount of resources required as a function of time.
Example : Resource Leveling
2. Create a table showing the resources required for each activity, durations, and the total
float available

Activity Resource Duration ES Slack LF

A 6 4 0 0 4
B 2 1 4 0 5
C 2 3 4 4 11
D 7 4 5 0 9
E 3 2 9 0 11
F 6 1 11 0 12
Example : Resource Leveling
3. Develop a time-phased resource loading table

8
Resources

6
Resource
4 imbalance
A D F
B
2 E
C

2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Project Days
Example : Resource Leveling
4. Identify any resource conflicts and begin to smooth the loading table using one or more
heuristics

Resource
6

s
4 C
A D F
B
2 E
C
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Project Days
Schedule Compression
Several techniques may be adopted to shorten the schedule
 They act on the Trade-off Triangle (time, scope, cost)
Option Process General Impact on Project
Break dependencies and do  Add risk
Fast Track
parallel activities  May add management time
 Always adds cost
Crash Add resources to tasks
 May add management time
Reduce requirements and  Could possibly save cost and time
Reduce Scope consequently remove whole  Negative impact on customer
tasks satisfaction
 Could possibly save cost and
resources
Cut Quality Doing some tasks faster  May increase risks
 Negative impact on customer
satisfaction
Time-cost Trade-offs: Crashing

Crash – shortening activity duration

Procedure for crashing:
 Crash the project one period at a time
 Only an activity on the critical path
 Crash the least expensive activity
 Multiple critical paths: find the sum of crashing the
least expensive activity on each critical path
Steps in Project Crashing
1. Compute the crash cost per time period. For crash costs
assumed linear over time:

(Crash cost − Normal cost)

Crash cost per period =
(Normal time − Crash time)

2. Using current activity times, find the critical path

3. If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on
this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has
the smallest crash cost per period. A single activity may be
common to more than one critical path
4. Update all activity times.
Project Crashing - Example

Crash the project to 13 weeks and determine the total cost.

Project Crashing - Example
Project Crashing - Example

4 3 7
F
0 2 2 2 2 4 13 2 15
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 2 2 0 4 13 0 15
4 4 8
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 4 0 8 8 5 13

B D G
1 1 4 4 1 8 8 0 13

After crashing activity B – Time for B-D-G-H = 1+4+5+2= 12weeks

Critical Path : A-C-E-G-H – Tcr = 2+2+4+5+2 = 15weeks (no effect)
Project Crashing - Example
Project Crashing - Example
Project Crashing – Example
Revised Critical Path
3 3 6
F
0 1 1 1 2 3 12 2 14
10 6 13
A C H
0 0 1 1 0 3 12 0 14
3 4 7
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 3 0 7 7 5 12

B D G
0 0 3 3 0 7 New Critical 7 0 12
Path
Project Crashing - Example
Project Crashing - Example
Project Crashing – Example
Revised Critical Path
3 3 6
F
0 1 1 1 2 3 11 2 13
8 3 11
A C H
0 0 1 1 0 3 11 0 13
3 4 7
LFA=Min(LSC, LSD) LFC=Min(LSE, LSE)
Start E
0 3 3 3 4 7 3 0 7 7 4 11

B D G
0 0 3 3 0 7 New Critical 7 0 11
Path
Project Crashing - Example
Gantt or bar charts
 represent schedule information
 activities are listed on the vertical axis,
 dates are shown on the horizontal axis,
 activity durations are shown as horizontal bars placed according to
start and finish dates.

 Bar charts are weak

planning tools, but
they are effective for
progress reporting and
control. (not project
mgmnt plans).
Milestone Charts
 Only show major events (completion of activities).
 Milestones have no duration;
 Milestone charts are good tools for reporting to management
and to the customer.
Project schedule network diagrams
These diagrams are commonly presented in the activity-on-node diagram format showing
activities and relationships without a time scale, sometimes referred to as a pure logic
diagram
References

 Project Management Body of Knowledge, 5th ed, PMI, USA.

 Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling, Harold Kerzner, 11th ed, Wiley &
Sons.
 PMP Exam Prep, 8th ed, Rita et. Al, RMC.
 Project Management: Achieving Competitive Advantage, 3rd ed,
Jeffery, K. Pinto, Prentice Hall.