British Journal of Environment & Climate Change

3(3): 378-401, 2013

SCIENCEDOMAIN international
www.sciencedomain.org

Dynamic Resilience to Climate Change Caused

Natural Disasters in Coastal Megacities
Quantification Framework
Slobodan P. Simonovic1* and Angela Peck1
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario,
London, Ontario, Canada.

Authors’ contributions

This work was carried out in collaboration between all authors. Author SPS provides the
overall guidance for the work presented in this article, developed the conceptual formulation
of the resilience measure and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. Author AP is working on
the development of CMRS model and provided illustrations and comments on the first draft
of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Received 4 November 2012
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Research Article Accepted 28 June 2013
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Published 15 September 2013

ABSTRACT

Objectives: The framework is designed to provide (i) for better understanding of factors
contributing to urban resilience; and (ii) for comparison of climate change adaptation
options.
Methodology: Disasters occur at the intersection of hazards and vulnerabilities. As the
climate changes, so do the patterns of climate hazards. Coastal megacities are faced
with many challenges including (i) increased exposure to natural hazards such as
hurricanes, typhoons, storm surges, sea-level rise and riverine flooding; (ii) pressures of
increasing urbanization and population growth; and (iii) increased complexity of
interacting subsystems. An original method for quantification of resilience is provided
through spatial system dynamics simulation. The quantitative resilience framework
combines economic, social, organizational, health and physical impacts of climate
change caused natural disasters on coastal megacities. The developed measure defines
resilience as a function of time and location in space. The framework is being
implemented through the system dynamics model in an integrated computational
environment.
Conclusion: Data collection for the Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator (CMRS)
____________________________________________________________________________________________

*Corresponding author: Email: [email protected];

 British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, 3(3): 378-401, 2013

model input and discussions with local decision makers are actively being pursued
concurrent with the model development for the primary case study coastal city of
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Future work includes developing policy driven
adaptation scenarios, resilience model simulations, transfer of the resilience model to
local community and capacity building.

Keywords: Resilience; coastal megacities; climate change; systems modeling.

ACRONYMS

CMRS: Coastal megacity resilience simulator; DALY: Disability adjusted life year; GIS:
Geographic information system; IDRC: International Development Research Centre; ST-
DRM: Space-time dynamic resilience measure

1. INTRODUCTION

Coastal regions are highly dynamic and complex systems, which respond in various ways to
extreme weather events [1]. Coastal floods are among the most dangerous and harmful
natural disasters. On the other side, the urban areas adjacent to the shorelines are
characterized with large and growing concentrations of human population, settlements and
socio-economic activities. Currently, 21% of the world’s population lives within coastal zones
and an average of 46 million people per year experience storm surge flooding. Some 189
million people presently live below the one-in-a-hundred-year storm surge level [2]. Climate
change is making natural disasters in coastal areas much more significant. Therefore, there
is a need for quantitative assessment of climate change caused natural disaster impacts on
coastal regions and analyses of various adaptation options. This paper presents an original
resilience assessment framework based on system dynamics simulation. This framework
can be used to identify the most significant factors affecting urban resilience (Fig. 1) and to
develop climate change adaptation measures for coastal megacities. In this paper, the focus
is on large cities in low-lying deltaic environments (Vancouver, Canada; Manila, Philippines;
Lagos, Nigeria; and Bangkok, Thailand) selected for consideration under the project
"Coastal Cities at Risk: Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal
Megacities" supported by the International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate
Change of the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC) [3]. These
cities experience impacts of flooding both from rivers and the sea, and are therefore very
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

There are practical links between disaster risk management, climate change adaptation and
sustainable development leading to reduction of disaster risk and re-enforcing resilience as a
new development paradigm [4]. There has been a noticeable change in disaster
management approaches, moving from disaster vulnerability to disaster resilience; the latter
viewed as a more proactive and positive expression of community engagement with natural
disaster management. As hazard is increasing, at the same time it erodes resilience,
therefore climate change has a magnifying effect on disaster risk. In the past, standard
disaster management planning emphasized the documentation of roles, responsibilities and
procedures. Increasingly, these plans consider arrangements for prevention, mitigation,
preparedness and recovery, as well as response. However, over the last ten years
substantial progress has been made in establishing the role of resilience in sustainable
development [5]. Multiple case studies around the world reveal links between attributes of

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resilience and the capacity of complex systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to
maintain a certain level of functioning. Building on emergency planning experience, there is
a need to focus more on action-based resilience planning to strengthen local capacity and
capability, with greater emphasis on community engagement and a better understanding of
the diversity, needs, strengths and vulnerabilities within communities. Disasters do not
impact everyone in the same way. It is clear that the problems associated with sustainable
human wellbeing in urban regions call for a new research approach. Cities may be seen as
living systems (systems of systems), constantly self-organizing in many and varied ways in
response to both internal interactions and the influence of external factors. Use of resilience
as an appropriate matrix for investigation arises from the integral consideration of overlap
between: (a) physical environment (built and natural); (b) social dynamics; (c) metabolic
flows; and (d) governance networks, as shown in Fig. 1.

This paper provides an original systems framework for quantification of resilience. The
framework is based on the definition of urban resilience as the ability of physical and social
urban systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to continue functioning. The
disturbance in cities depends on spatial and temporal perspectives and direct interaction
between impacts of disturbance (social, health, economic, and other) and adaptive capacity
of the urban system to absorb disturbance.

The main objectives of this paper include: (i) the introduction of an original systems
framework for quantification of resilience; (ii) the procedure for framework implementation
through system dynamics simulation; and (iii) a brief discussion of the tool being developed
for the implementation of the framework in coastal megacities. The remainder of the paper is
organized in the following way: The next section presents the new systems framework for
quantification of resilience; the following section focuses on the implementation of the
proposed framework through system dynamics simulation; and the paper ends with a brief
discussion of current progress on the development of Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator
(CMRS) model and a brief description of its future use.

Fig. 1. Four interconnected areas that define urban resilience (modified after [4])

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2. A SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK FOR QUANTIFICATION OF URBAN RESILIENCE

The most common approach to urban disaster management is focused on the assessment
of vulnerability, which when combined with hazards, provides for disaster risk evaluation.
Based on Cutter et al. [11], ”vulnerability describes the pre-event, inherent characteristics or
qualities of urban systems that create the potential for harm. Vulnerability is a function of
who or what is at risk and sensitivity of system (the degree to which people and places can
be harmed). On the other side, resilience is the ability of a complex system to respond and
recover from disasters and includes those conditions that allow the system to absorb
impacts and cope with an event, as well as post-event, adaptive processes that facilitate the
ability of the system to re-organize, change, and learn in response to a threat” (paraphrased
by the authors).

There are many definitions of resilience, from general [6]:

(i) The ability to recover quickly from illness, change or misfortune.

(ii) Buoyancy.
(iii) The property of material to assume its original shape after deformation.
(iv) Elasticity.

to ecology–based [7]:

(i) The ability of a system to withstand stresses of ‘environmental loading’.

to hazard–based [8]

(i) Capacity for collective action in response to extreme events.

(ii) The capacity of a system, community, or society potentially exposed to
hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing, in order to reach and maintain an
acceptable level of functioning and structure.
(iii) The capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function.
(iv) The capacity to adapt existing resources and skills to new situations and
operating conditions.

The common elements of these definitions include: (i) minimization of losses, damages and
community disruption; (ii) maximization of the ability and capacity to adapt and adjust when
there are shocks to systems; (iii) returning systems to a functioning state as quickly as
possible; (iv) recognition that resilient systems are dynamic in time and space; and (v)
acknowledgements that post-shock functioning levels may not be the same as pre-shock
levels. Resilience is a dynamic process, but for measurement purposes is often viewed as
static phenomena [11].

A resilient city is a sustainable network of physical (constructed and natural) systems and
human communities (social and institutional) that possess the capacity to survive, cope,
recover, learn and transform from disturbances by: (i) reducing failure probabilities; (ii)
reducing failure consequences (for example material damage); (iii) reducing time to
recovery; and (iv) creating opportunity for development and innovation from adverse
impacts. Numerous institutions, organizations, and elements in the urban environment
contribute to community resilience. Let us for the sake of simplicity, focus here only on
critical organizations whose functions are essential for community well-being in the aftermath
of disasters [9,10]. These critical facilities include water and power lifelines, acute-care
hospitals, and organizations that have the responsibility for emergency management at the

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local community level. Improving the resilience of critical lifelines such as water and power
and critical facilities and functions such as emergency response management is critical for
overall community resilience. These organizations are essential for community functioning;
they enable communities to respond, provide for the well-being of their residents, and initiate
recovery activities when disasters strike [9]. For example, since no community can cope
adequately with a flood disaster without being able to provide emergency care for injured
victims, hospital functionality is crucial for community resilience. Water is another essential
lifeline service that must be provided to sustain disaster victims. Any consideration of
resilience must begin with a focus on services and functional activities that are essential for
a resilient community. The continued operation and rapid restoration of these services are a
necessary condition for overall community resilience.

2.1 A Space-Time Dynamic Resilience Measure

There is a significant literature that covers qualitative conceptualizations of disaster

resilience, but very little research that focuses on resilience quantification and its
implementation in the management of disasters. Even though [9], [10] and [11] propose
conceptual frameworks for resilience assessment, challenges remain in developing standard
metrics that can be used in quantifying and assessing disaster resilience. Therefore, there is
the necessity to move beyond conceptualizations and into actual resilience quantification.
This paper takes the first step in this process by providing a conceptual framework for
natural disaster resilience drawn from global change, hazards and systems literature.

The starting point in the development of new system framework for quantification of
resilience is an engineering hazard-based definition of resilience as a static measure that
reduces the probability of failure [12,13,14,15,16,17]. The main shortcoming of the
engineering approach as quoted in [11] “is that it often fails to capture important social and
governance factors (presented in Fig. 1) that occur at the most local levels or to account for
the vulnerability or resilience of the natural environment”. In our approach we follow [11],
“resilience has two qualities: inherent (functions well during non-crisis periods); and adaptive
(flexibility in response during disasters)” and can be applied to physical environment (built
and natural), social systems, governance network (institutions and organizations), and
economic systems (metabolic flows), as shown in Fig. 1. To deal with the shortcomings in
existing resilience models and to provide a conceptual basis for establishing baselines for
measuring resilience, we have developed a space-time dynamic resilience measure (ST-
DRM). The ST-DRM is designed to capture the relationships between the main components
of resilience; one that is theoretically grounded in systems approach, open to empirical
testing, and one that can be applied to address real-world problems in urban communities.

A space-time dynamic resilience measure, ST-DRM, is illustrated in system performance

space in Fig. 2. The solid line illustrates the adaptation capacity that leads to system
performance level equal to one before the system disturbance. Dashed line is illustrating
adaptation capacity that is insufficient to bring the performance level to a pre-disaster stage.
The dotted line illustrates the adaptation capacity that brings the level of system
performance above the pre-disturbance level.

The ST-DRM is defining the level of system performance in time ( ) at a particular location in
space ( ). The measure integrates various units ( ) that characterize impacts of disasters on
urban community. At the current level of development the following units of resilience ( )
are considered: physical, health, economic, social and organizational. Measures of
performance for physical impacts ( ( , ), = 1) may include length [km] of road being

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3
inundated by a flood, or the reduction in water supply [m /s] due to pipe break, or the area of
2
the city [km ] that is under the water during a flood event, or the height of the sea wall [m]
that provides the coastal protection, and so on. The health impacts ( ( , ), = 2) may be
measured using an integral index like disability adjusted life year (DALY), or the number of
hospital beds in emergency hospitals, or the number of doctors per capita, and so on. The
economic ( ( , ), = 3) impacts can be measured using aggregates like GDP, or much
more sophisticated expressions of production, supply and consumption chains obtained
through input-output modeling. The measure of performance for social impacts ( ( , ), =
4) can be expressed using indicators like age, gender, ethnicity, social status, education and
household arrangement. The organizational impacts ( ( , ), = 5) can be measured using
number of disaster management services available to the population, or the time [hr]
required under the current regulations to provide assistance or process a damage claim, or
similar. This approach is based on the notion that an impact, ( , ), which varies with time
and location in space, has been defined for the quality of the resilience component of a
community.

Every performance measure indicator used in the quantification of impacts is compared to a

threshold performance value in order to determine the starting point of system disturbance
( ) and the ending point ( ). The threshold values may be predefined system adaptive
capacity standards. We follow [9] and [10] and define adaptive capacity of physical and
social systems using: (i) robustness - strength, or the ability of elements, systems, and other
indicators of analysis to withstand a given level of disturbance or demand without suffering
degradation or loss of function; (ii) redundancy - the extent to which elements, systems, or
other indicators of analysis exist that are replaceable, i.e., capable of satisfying functional
requirements in the event of disturbance, degradation, or loss of functionality; (iii)
resourcefulness - the capacity to identify problems, establish priorities, and mobilize
resources when conditions exist that threaten to disrupt a system; and (iv) rapidity - the
capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely manner in order to contain losses
and avoid future system disruption.

Fig. 3 illustrates conceptual calculation of SR-DRM. When the loss of system resilience –
shaded area between t0 and t1 – is equal to the recovery of system resilience – shaded area
between t1 and tr, then the system resilience is equal to 1 at the end of the recovery period tr.
As illustrated in Fig. 3, performance of a system which is subject to a disruption (disaster
event) drops below the initial value and time is required to recover the loss of system
performance.

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Fig. 2. Conceptual definition of the space time dynamic resilience measure (ST-DRM)

In mathematical form the performance measure for impact ( ) represents the shaded area in
Fig. 3 between the beginning of the system disruption event ( ) and the end of the
disruption recovery process ( ). It can be represented mathematically as:

( , )=∫ − ( , ) ℎ ∈[ , ] (1)

Fig. 3. Illustration of system space time dynamic resilience measure (ST-DRM) in

performance space
Equation (1) will have the units of selected impact indicator. In order to allow for the
calculation of integral resilience measure across different impacts, the value of ( , ) is
then used in calculation of resilience for each impact ( ):

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( , )
( , )=1−( ) (2)
×( − )

Fig. 4 shows the value of resilience calculated from the change in system performance.
There are three possible outcomes in resilience simulation: (i) resilience returns to pre-
disturbance level (value of 1) – dash-dotted line in Fig. 4; (ii) resilience exceeds pre-
disturbance level (value > 1) – dashed line in Fig. 4; or (iii) resilience does not return to pre-
disturbance level (value < 1) – dotted line in Fig. 4.

Fig. 4. System resilience

Specifically, the value of ( , ) will range from 0 to 1, where 1 means no degradation in

system performance and 0 means no performance is available. If a disturbance (for example
flood) occurs at time , it could cause sufficient damage to infrastructure such that the
performance quality is immediately reduced. Restoration of the infrastructure is expected to
occur over time, as indicated in Fig. 4, until time when the system resilience is recovered.
The integral ST-DRM (over all impacts (i)) is calculated using:

( , ) = {∏ ( , )} (3)

where M is total number of impacts

Computation of the ST-DRM is performed for each location in space ( ). Fig. 5 is the
schematic presentation of the ST-DRM computational process. The shades of red colour
illustrate different resilience values. Spatial units of the analysis are shown as grid cells for
the simplicity of the concept illustration. Since the calculated value of ( , ) will change with
time and location, the final outcome of the ST-DRM computation is a dynamic map that
shows change of ( , ) with time and location. Selected spatial resolution of analysis may
require aggregation and/or disaggregation of indicators selected for description of various
impacts, ( ). One possible scheme for implementation in Canadian cities is the use of

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dissemination area as the spatial unit of analysis [18]. This area is defined by Statistics
Canada as “a small, relatively stable geographic unit composed of one or more adjacent
dissemination blocks. It is the smallest standard geographic area for which all census data
are disseminated”.

Fig. 5. Illustrative presentation of the space time dynamic resilience measure (ST-
DRM) computation process

2.2 Implementation of ST-DRM through System Dynamics Simulation

The implementation of the ST-DRM is proposed to use the system dynamics simulation
approach. System dynamics is an academic discipline introduced in the 1960s that has
gradually developed into a tool useful in the analysis of social, economic, physical, chemical,
biological and ecological systems [15,16,17,18]. In the context of this paper, a system is
defined as a collection of elements that continually interact over time to form a unified whole.
The underlying pattern of interactions between the elements of a system is called the
structure of the system. The term dynamics refers to change over time. If something is
dynamic, it is constantly changing in response to the stimuli influencing it. A dynamic system
is thus a system in which the variables interact to stimulate changeover time. The way in
which the elements, or variables, composing a system vary over time is referred to as the
behavior of the system. One feature that is common to all systems is that a system's
structure determines its behavior. System dynamics links the behavior of a system to its
underlying structure. It can be used to analyze how the structure of a physical, biological,
social or any other system can lead to the behavior the system exhibits.

The system dynamics simulation approach relies on understanding complex

interrelationships existing between different elements within a system, by developing a
model that can simulate and quantify the behavior of the system. The major steps that are
carried out in the development of a system dynamics simulation model include: (i)
understanding the system and its boundaries; (ii) identifying the key variables; (iii) describing
the interactions between variables through mathematical relationships; (iv) mapping the
structure of the model; and (v) simulating the model for understanding its behavior.

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The ST-DRM is converted into the system dynamics model using the high-level model
diagram shown in Fig. 6. The calculation of ST-DRM for each impact ( ) is done at each
location ( ) by solving the following differential equation:
( )
= ( )− ( ) (4)

ℎ ℎ ,

Adaptive capacity is defined using various performance measures. These measures are
defined, as presented above, in terms of four R's (robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness
and rapidity). Examples of health performance measures for some critical systems (power
and water lifelines, hospitals, and emergency response system) are shown in Table 1. It
must be noted that these are for illustrative purposes only. Bruneau et al. [9] suggest a
distinction between ‘‘ends’’ and ‘‘means’’ dimensions of resilience; robustness and rapidity
are essentially the desired ‘‘ends’’ that are accomplished through adaptation resiliency-
enhancing measures and are the outcomes that more deeply affect decision makers and
stakeholders; and redundancy and resourcefulness are measures that define the ‘‘means’’
by which resilience can be improved.

The integral ST-DRM is calculated at each location (s) by solving:

()
= ( )−∏ () (5)

Assessment of impacts is driven by the selected performance measures and a set of system
disturbance sources (hazards). In other words, traditional concepts of vulnerability and
exposure will be used and adapted to each performance measure. Change in climate and
non-climate drivers will be affecting vulnerability and exposure of system components. At the
same time, adaptation measures under consideration will be modifying them too. Interaction
of numerous feedback mechanisms underlining the high level model structure in Fig. 6 will
generate system behaviour. In this way, the ST-DRM describes the integral system
behavior.

Fig. 6. A schematic system dynamics model for the implementation of ST-DRM

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The system dynamics simulation model of ST-DRM can be used to design and evaluate
adaptation policies for improvement of system performance that will lead to levels of
resilience higher than the pre-disruption levels. Adaptation policy design involves various
approaches such as: (a) change of model parameters; and/or (b) creation of new strategies,
structures, and decision rules. Regardless of the approach used, the aim of any system
dynamics simulation model experimentation is the exploration of model behavior between
different simulation runs. The purpose is to observe how the modeled system behaves
normally, and then how changes in policies or physical parameters alter that behavior.

It has been shown [17,18] that the feedback structure of a system determines its dynamic
system behavior over time. Most of the time high leverage policies involve changing the
dominant feedback loops by redesigning the system structure, eliminating time delays,
changing the flow and quality of information available at key decision points, or
fundamentally recreating the decision processes in the system. The robustness of policies
and their sensitivity to uncertainties in model parameters and structure must be assessed,
including their performance under a wide range of alternative scenarios. The interactions of
different policies must also be considered; because real systems are highly nonlinear, the
impact of combination policies is usually not the sum of their impacts alone. Often policies
interfere with one another and sometimes they reinforce one another and generate
substantial synergies.

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Table 1. An illustrative example of health performance measures for a flood disaster

Critical system Robustness Redundancy Resourcefulness Rapidity

Water % of residential buildings Alternative and Water conservation Reestablish safe drinking water
with safe drinking water secondary drinking programs, boil water supplies in 1 day
service immediately water sources advisories, bottled water
following a flood event initiatives implemented
Power % of all residential Alternative power Power conservation Reestablish power to residential
buildings with power supplies programs implemented buildings in 1 day
service immediately
following a flood event
Hospital % treatment of injured Alternative Arrangements for temporary Treat all injured persons in 2
people and ability to hospitals and care hospitals and treatments days
provide patient care clinics
without transfers
Emergency % of response vehicles Multiple response Allocate additional voluntary Maintain emergency response
Response that maintain service units with multiple emergency responders for at all times, provide emergency
Services emergency routes disaster assistance shelters for displaced residents
within 12 hours

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3. COASTAL MEGACITY RESILIENCE SIMULATOR

The ST-DRM framework is being applied to the project "Coastal Cities at Risk: Building
Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities" supported by the
International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change of the Canadian IDRC [2].
The system dynamics model (Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator - CMRS) is being
developed that implements the ST-DRM framework in an integrated computational
environment (as shown in Fig. 3). VENSIM system dynamics simulation software [20] is
integrated with ArcGIS software [21]. The CMRS model will have a generic form based on
the space-time dynamic resilience framework. The model generic form will be modified to
specifics of each coastal city considered in the project (Vancouver, Canada; Lagos, Nigeria;
Manila, Philippines; and Bangkok, Thailand) resulting in four specific city models to be used
in improving adaptive capacity for managing climate change in coastal megacities.

3.1 The Systems Approach Context of Coastal Megacity Resilience to Climate

Change

The evolution of systems approach to cities is progressing very fast. The current view of the
city as a “System of Systems” is dominating the European Union [23] and North America
[24]. In this view a city is looked as a very large scale integrated system of components that
are themselves systems. These components link many constituent systems on a wide
variety of temporal and spatial scales. The resulting combined system is able to address
problems which the constituent systems alone would be unable to do and yields functionality
that is only present as a result of the creation of new, “emergent”, behavior.

A coastal megacity can be considered a network of three interdependent subsystems: (i) the
natural subsystem; (ii) the socio-economic subsystem; and (iii) the administrative and
institutional subsystem. Each of the three subsystems is characterized by its own elements
and is surrounded by its own environment. For the purpose of the project, coastal megacity
resilience is caused by the interaction between society and climate change caused hazards
(e.g. precipitations, floods and cyclones). Some rapid onset hazards are noticeable
immediately, such as flooding or hurricane, and may last for relatively short time period
ranging from hours to weeks. Continuous hazards, such as sea-level rise, are very slow
events that are hardly perceptible by society [25].

The natural system is defined by climate and physical conditions (catchment and coast), the
socio-economic system is formed by the demographic, social and economic conditions of the
surrounding economies, and the administrative and institutional systems are formed and
bounded by the constitutional, legal and political systems. Climate change affects three sub-
systems of the coastal megacity system: hydro-geological, socio-economical and
administrative-institutional. Their interactions affect the possible short- and long-term
damages from climate change caused disasters. The components can be assessed by
different indicators to understand the resilience of the system to climate change caused
natural disasters. These sub-systems are described in more detail below.

(a) Hydro-geological sub-system. The hydro-geological sub-system is a part of the natural

system. It includes hydro-geo-morphological (i.e. sea-level rise, river discharge, soil
subsidence) and climatic (i.e. number of cyclones, storm surges) characteristics of the
coastal megacities. This sub-system affects disaster exposure (illustrated in Fig. 2).
Developments such as land subsidence, storm surge and high river discharge increase

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environmental degradation, aggravating effects of climate change and associated sea-level

rise, increasing the potential occurrence of floods.

(b) Socio-economic sub-system. This component is part of the socio-economic system; for
example, climate change caused flooding affects the day-to-day lives of the population that
belongs to the system. The social component relates to the presence of people and includes
issues related to it. For example, decreased mobility of people may be associated with
gender, age or disabilities. Coastal floods can cause destruction of houses, disruption in
communications, disruption in agricultural activities, or even fatalities. The economic
component is related to income or issues which are inherent to the economy of the affected
area. There are many economic activities that can be negatively affected by coastal flooding.
Among them are: tourism, fisheries, navigation, industries, agriculture, availability of potable
water, etc.

(c) Administrative-institutional sub-system. To characterize the administrative and

institutional system, the relevant institutions at the national, regional and local level must be
identified. The approach assumes that one or more institutions have the ability and authority
to develop and implement plans that will oversee and manage the coordinated development
and actions of the local authorities that affect the coastal megacity.

Understanding the natural processes as well as the economic and social services or
functions that coastal megacities fulfill is critical to the successful and sustainable
management of these systems. For example, more severe storms will result in a slight
decrease of the storm surge levels as a result of increased water depths; storm surge may
also increase because of the more severe storm activity; and tidal prisms will increase; etc.
As a result, salt intrusion will increase, structures will be more stressed and wetlands will be
inundated and adversely affected. All of these will affect the population of the coastal
megacity, which is under permanent increase. Damage will also occur to agricultural areas
as a result of increased saltwater intrusion. In addition, cultural heritage may be susceptible
to flooding. The coastal parts of megacities are affected by human activities such as bank
protection, shipping, and construction and operation of hydraulic infrastructure. Coastal cities
provide tangible and direct economic benefits; tourism, transport and fisheries depend on the
wealth of natural resources that a coastal environment supplies. The protected coastal
waters also support important public infrastructure, serving as harbours and ports vital for
shipping, transportation and industry.

3.2 The Impacts

The five major impacts that are being considered in the ST-DRM include: physical impacts,
economic impacts, social impacts, health impacts and organizational impacts. They will be
individually modeled in the modifications of generic Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator
(CMRS) model into four city models (Vancouver, Manila, Bangkok and Lagos) to properly
describe the local conditions in each city.

3.2.1 Physical impacts

Coastal cities are exposed to multiple types of hydro-meteorological climate hazards

including: storm surges, tsunamis, sea-level rise, hurricanes, and coastal and riverine
flooding. Climate change and urbanization will exacerbate the problems associated with
these hazards in urban coastal megacities as the frequency and magnitude of events
increases. These hazards drive the physical sector of the CMRS model that represents the

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natural sub-system. The changes in the physical system have direct and indirect impacts on
economic, social, health and organizational activities.

The main hydro-meteorological hazards that threaten the coastal megacities include: riverine
flooding, storm surges and sea-level rise. These hazards are described by climatological
elements in the physical sector of the system dynamics model. The physical impacts sector
is connected to other sectors in the model which describe a community's resilience to
various impacts of a disaster. For example, flooding directly affects the health of people,
inundates infrastructure and impacts social wellbeing. However, some communities will
experience higher levels of impacts than others based on the magnitude of hazard (depth of
flooding for example), pre-disaster characteristics of population health, local pre-disaster
economy and social inequities.

The physical impacts sector is where the effects of climate change are captured in the
projection of hazard events. The CMRS model will be able to simulate a single hazard event
(e.g. flooding) but may also simulate multiple hazards which occur simultaneously (e.g.
storm surge and riverine flooding) or in series (e.g. back-to-back flooding events). Climate
change modifies the physical events which are being used as input into the CMRS model;
this is how the effects of climate change are being captured.

3.2.2 Economic impacts

The economic prosperity of coastal megacities often heavily depends on the physical coastal
environment. The same environment is a significant contributor to the risk to coastal
communities. The economic activities of coastal cities that are being considered in the
CMRS model include manufacturing and services, tourism, fishing, export-import trade,
transportation, construction and other industries that rely on or are linked to the oceans for
operations.

The CMRS model uses an input-output economic model to illustrate pre- and post-disaster
economies. A physical hazard (such as a flood) is used as input into the physical impact
sector of the model. The model captures the dynamic impacts of the hazard on local
economic activities such as the supply and capacity constraints, GDP, energy and
employment. This will impact the other sectors of the CMRS model. These other sectors
experience changes that then feedback into the economic sector and modify it again. This is
the essential system dynamics concept of feedback loops. The economic impacts of climate
change caused natural disasters are important for the development of appropriate
adaptation policies.

3.2.3 Social impacts

People like to live near the coast. In affluent communities, being in close proximity to water is
a desirable place to live for the view it provides. In poorer communities however, it is people
who have been displaced or rely on their proximity to water for survival (for example, fishing)
who live closest to water bodies, which makes them susceptible to multiple impacts of
hazardous events. The relationship between poverty, environmental degradation and hazard
vulnerability is a vicious, mutually reinforcing system feedback [26].

Social vulnerability is based on the concept that a population exposed to hazards is

susceptible to suffering physical, emotional or psychological distress. The degree to which
people may experience these damages is influenced by their tolerance and coping

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capabilities in stressful situations. Vulnerable populations exhibit certain characteristics that

suggest they are more likely to incur damages in the event of a disaster. The CMRS model
being developed includes 21 social indicators of social vulnerability, such as: population
under 19 years of age, population whose primary language is not English or French,
incidence of low income, population with only high school education, and single parent
families. The social impacts sector is linked to the physical, economic and health impacts
sectors, creating additional feedbacks in the CMRS model. These sectors influence each
other and all contribute to overall city resilience.

3.2.4 Health impacts

Coastal hazards can have significant impacts on the health of individuals and a community.
Floodwaters carry debris that can impact people causing injury which may immediately
impede mobility. Floodwaters also carry waste, sewage and bacteria which, through direct
contact with drinking water supplies, could spread disease and cause illness for many weeks
after a disaster. Illness may also be passed from person to person in close quarters.

Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) are used in CMRS to capture the health vulnerability
of a population. These values are available for most countries worldwide from the World
Health Organization. The DALYs provide the number of cases for injuries, communicable
and non-communicable diseases for a particular year. As coastal hazards affect a
community, the DALY values will change to reflect the health impacts. However, the time
scales for different health impacts are not equal. Injuries usually occur during the disaster,
whereas some illnesses may not show for weeks, and some diseases may not show at all or
may not be related to a disaster event. The CMRS model is able to handle differences in
temporal scales of different health impacts, but is limited by the simulation time horizon of
the model and the availability of specific local health data. Health impacts of a disaster are
also linked to the economic, physical, organizational and social impacts of a disaster.
Together, these sectors contribute to the overall coastal megacity resilience.

3.2.5 Organizational impacts

The effectiveness of climate change adaptation measures must consider the political
administrative and institutional framework which affects the functioning of the coastal
megacity. This framework defines the overall effectiveness of decision making. It must be
framed because the overall implementation and effectiveness of climate change adaptation
options depends on political motivation, budgets and climate change policy. The manner in
which a city formulates policy decisions is not explicitly represented in the CMRS model
structure but it is incorporated as an essential part of adaptation scenarios to be simulated
by the model.

3.3 Data Needs

The Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator (CMRS) is data intensive. A very detailed
description of each of the five impacts considered within the tool and detailed temporal and
spatial scales require serious data support. Table 2 provides an extensive example list of
time series data and Table 3 lists the necessary spatial data.

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Table 2. An illustrative example of CMRS time series data needs

Data Data type

category
Physical Local historical climate data (precipitation, wind, tides, temperature extremes, etc.)
Local historical seasonality of hazards
Global Climate Modeling (GCM) data and emission scenarios
Historical disasters:
Data relating to the size and magnitude of greatest observed disaster;
Data relating to the most recent disaster and details surrounding it;
Damages to infrastructure;
Impacts of natural disasters in case study locations

Economic Economic Accounts (National/Provincial/Regional/ City Levels) - standard tables prepared in all countries according to
UN guidelines, including GDP, national income and its composition, expenditure and its composition
International trade data - exports and imports by industry and commodity.
Input-output “Use”, “Make”, and final demand matrixes
Output by industry
Employment by industry
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Household survey micro-data including income and/or consumer expenditure plus other variables (e.g. age, sex,
employment status and education of household members, and home ownership); asset and debt variables.
Size distributions of income and wealth by age, sex and household type - means, medians, decile shares, Gini
coefficients
Employment and unemployment numbers and rates
Jobs especially related to emergency management and recovery processes
Energy production in physical units
Valuation of public capital and infrastructure
Hospitals, schools, colleges and universities, other public service buildings
Roads, railways, ports, airports
Local public transit
Valuation of private capital and infrastructure:
Residential
Commercial/Industrial
Energy production and distribution system (output or carrying capacity in physical units and value)

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electricity generating stations

oil refineries and storage facilities
energy distribution systems (electric power lines, pipelines etc.)
Estimate property damage for disasters of different magnitudes; damage given by type (residential, commercial,
industrial, public buildings, infrastructure etc.); stage-damage curves
Social Population statistics (e.g. Statistics Canada)
Culture, religion and behaviour which may influence disaster preparedness, response, recovery and adaptation
Social networks and service providers
Identification of isolated individuals
Transportation access
Health Local disease data and statistics
DALY values
Impact of local diseases on an individual’s mobility
Onset time after infection
Rate of infection
Duration of infection
Vaccination availability for communicable diseases
Links between diseases and climate change
Emergency plans for medical service providers and personnel to help during a disaster
Hospital and aid-center characteristics (i.e. capacity; number of doctors/nurses employed; budget; etc.)
Other Details related to water infrastructure (structural properties; design specifications; maintenance details; operational
requirements; etc.)
Details related to coastal infrastructure (structural properties; design specifications; maintenance details; operational
requirements; etc.)
Disaster response plans and emergency management provisions; first responders
Details pertaining to expected disaster aid (historical and otherwise)
Historical experience in disaster respons
Emergency and standard communications networks
Communication requirements for specific groups of people (i.e. no access to internet; First Nations People; etc.)

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Table 3. An illustrative example of CMRS spatial data needs

Data category Data type

Physical Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)
Digital boundary files
Water features (rivers, lakes, oceans, ponds etc.)
Land cover; (trees, grass, sand, etc.)
Land use; (agricultural, industrial, commercial, residential, etc
Hydrological surveys of coast and rivers
Coastal infrastructure
Geological maps
Economic Fine resolution economic data; location of particular industries and major facilities
Income and wealth data as available
Energy distribution systems
Roads, railways, airports, bridges, tunnels
Number, type, value of structures (residential, commercial, industrial, public) and infrastructure (public, private)
Social Population characteristics
Age
% population under 19;
% population aged 65 and over;
% population who are widows;
Gender
% population who are female;
Ethnicity
% breakdown of ethnicities;
% population without citizenship;
Social status
Mean and median dwelling value;
Mean and median household income;
Incidence of low income;
% population who rent their dwelling;
% income received from government transfers;
% labour force (age > 15) unemployed;
% labour force employed in manufacturing;
% labour force employed in agriculture;

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Education
% adult population whose highest qualification is i): high school diploma, ii) trade certificate, iii) post-
secondary qualification other than university degree, iv) university degree
Household arrangement
% single-parent families;
% female-headed single-parent families;
% private households with one person
% private households with > 6 people
Divisions of power (and therefore independence and vulnerability) within households
First language
% breakdown of first languages spoken
Clusters
Health Locations and details of hazardous materials storage facilities
Locations of temporary disaster shelters
Critical infrastructure (hospitals, bridges, schools, emergency response, daycare centers, seniors homes, prisons,
etc.)
Specific regions with known, predisposed health hazards
Other Spatial distributions of hazards
Areas exposed to multiple hazards (historical and in the future)Energy providers and energy distribution networks
Location of municipal infrastructure
Areas of high biological/environmental sensitivity
Areas of high cultural significance

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The identified data is available from different data sources. The physical data is provided by
the national/regional and local hydrometeorological services in each country. The climate
change data is accessed from the climate modeling centers. For example, the Vancouver
climate data is obtained from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis which
is a branch of Environment Canada. Other physical data is available from the city
government sources and regional institutions responsible for various services. Most of the
economic, social and health data is available from national statistical services (in Canada
Statistics Canada). In the case of local missing data, some international sources (United
Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Health Organization, World
Meteorological Organization, and similar) can be considered. A detailed social data require
surveys conducted on ground.

3.4 Use of the CMRS for Building Adaptive Capacity of Coastal Megacities to
Climate Change

The purpose of the system dynamics model simulation is to focus on behavioural patterns of
a system rather than to predict a single value or outcome for a specific event [18]. This
means that the CMRS model is in no way predictive, but is instead intended to develop and
observe the interactions between elements of model structure, provide for learning and
increase the understanding of community resilience. Simulation models may also be thought
of as cause-and-effect models that describe the response of the system to a particular input
[17]. Various elements of the CMRS model structure will exhibit different behaviour; each
contributing to the overall behaviour of the space-time dynamic resilience measure.
Simulation makes it possible to test the sensitivity of the system behaviour to changes in
system structure.

A simulation scenario represents specific course of action and is created as a particular

combination of system input variables. The purpose of simulation scenarios is to provide
changes in model output in response to a particular input. Real policy systems are highly
nonlinear in behaviour and policies often conflict or reinforce each other. Therefore, the
CMRS simulation is providing for comparison of climate change adaptation options using
ST-DRM as the measurement matrix. In the current work, adaptation scenarios are used as
a way to introduce potential climate change adaptation strategies into the resilience model to
observe effects on model behaviour and prioritize the implementation of different adaptation
policy options within a coastal megacity.

Adaptation to climate change of coastal megacities will be investigated using CMRS model
with a number of adaptation scenarios. These scenarios are a combination of values
assigned to a set of CMRS model variables. A scenario may require modification of initial
values of input variables, or modification may be implemented during the simulation process.
For example, a scenario may include the allotment of additional financial resources to a
particular model sector in the period of recovery after a disaster has occurred. This scenario
is then simulated using the CMRS model to observe its effect on model sub-systems and on
overall city resilience behaviour.

An example adaptation scenario may be to designate additional medical personnel in

anticipation of coastal population growth and increased frequency of extreme climate events.
The expected system behaviour from this action would be an increase in overall city
resilience measure. The addition of medical personnel would decrease disaster health
impacts; likely reducing the spread of communicable disease and improving the overall
wellbeing of the population. However, this is an example of linear, more obvious thinking that

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will not see that there may be other relationships in the system that could be negatively
affected by this action. For example, increasing medical personnel requires more funding
that will reduce the available budget for other adaptation options, like improvement in the
flood protection infrastructure. Lower level of protection increases potential damage and
exposes larger number of people to hazards, therefore increasing further the need for more
medical personnel. The CMRS model will be able to provide the insights into complex
relationships that drive the response to various adaptation scenarios and therefore assist in
identification of those adaptation options that will increase adaptive capacity measured by
the increase in community resilience. The main purpose of adaptation scenario simulations
using CMRS model is to help develop adaptation policy, aid in resource allocation decisions
and prioritize disaster management investments. Therefore these scenarios are being
developed in close collaboration with local decision makers.

4. CONCLUSION

The paper presents an original framework for quantification of resilience through spatial
system dynamics simulation, ST-DRM. The quantitative resilience measure combines
economic, social, organizational, health and physical impacts of climate change caused
natural disasters on coastal megacities. The framework is designed to provide for: (i) better
understanding of factors contributing to urban resilience; and (ii) comparison of climate
change adaptation options using resilience as a decision making criterion.

The developed measure defines resilience as a function of time and location in space. The
framework is being implemented through the system dynamics model (Coastal Megacity
Resilience Simulator - CMRS) in an integrated computational environment (system dynamics
simulation software is integrated with GIS software). The CMRS model will have a generic
form based on the space-time dynamic resilience framework [27]. The generic model form
will be modified to specifics of each coastal city considered in the project (Vancouver, Lagos,
Manila and Bangkok); this will result in four specific city models to be used in improving
adaptive capacity for managing climate change in coastal megacities.

Data collection for the CMRS model input and discussions with local decision makers is
actively being pursued concurrently with the model development for the primary case study
coastal city of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Future work includes developing policy
driven adaptation scenarios, resilience model simulations, transfer of the resilience model to
the local community and capacity building.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are thankful for the research financial support provided by IDRC to the first
author and the NSERC CGS doctoral scholarship provided to the second author. Prof. J.
Davies and anonymous reviewers contributed to the improvement of the manuscript.

COMPETING INTERESTS

Authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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© 2013 Simonovic and Peck; This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the origin al work is properly cited.

Peer-review history:
The peer review history for this paper can be accessed here:
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