27 October 2022

Shocking symbolism
Zurich
China will continue to be run primarily around politics not economics. This is the chef conclusion following
the end of the seven-day National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The extraordinary, and in our
view shocking, political theatre concerning former leader Hu Jintao was presumably designed to send the
strongest of signals that a new era has begun. Under the former era, growth was prioritised over all else but,
based on President Xi Jinping’s view, corruption was out of control during that period and the legitimacy of
the PRC had begun to be questioned.

Such a view has some merit to GREED & fear in the sense that Xi undoubtedly remains popular among ordinary
people and the party’s legitimacy was under threat. Still for investors the formal ending of the reform era,
signalled by the removal of all representatives of the Communist Youth League from the leadership, including
outgoing Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, can only be considered a long-term negative. It is
also not reassuring that Xi used the Maoist-like term “struggle” (斗争) 22 times in his speech.

If this is the big picture, it is also a concern that the major technocrats who presided over the sensible
deleveraging policies of recent years are seemingly now due to retire and there is no clarity, as yet, on who will
replace them. GREED & fear refers to Vice Premier Liu He (age 70), the head of the China Banking and
Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) Guo Shuqing (66) and PBOC Governor Yi Gang (64). They have all
been dropped from the list of members of the party’s new Central Committee. But being dropped from the
party lists does not necessarily mean the officials will leave their government posts. This may only become
clearer in March 2023, when the national legislature meets, whether they will remain or, if they leave, who will
replace them.

Meanwhile the chief characteristic of the new Politburo Standing Committee is personal loyalty to Xi. Still the
presumed, though not formally confirmed, new Premier Li Qiang has a track record as Party Secretary of
Shanghai of being supportive of private business, though he appears to have got the number two job by
demonstrating his loyalty by enforcing the ultra-aggressive Covid-related lockdown in Shanghai earlier this
year.

Exhibit 1: China infrastructure fixed asset investment and residential real estate investment %YoY

Note: Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) growth based on the biggest 3 infra sectors: Water conservation, power distribution
and transport. Data derived from reported year-to-date figures. Source: CEIC Data, National Bureau of Statistics, Jefferies

Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status
of non-US analysts at the end of this report. 1
*Jefferies Hong Kong Limited
As for the economy, the latest Chinese data could have been worse with infrastructure investment providing
some support, rising by 16.3% YoY in September (see Exhibit 1). But this is more than offset by the continuing
downturn in residential property where Covid suppression remains the major driver as discussed here last
week (see GREED & fear - Oil, the helmsman and hysteria, 20 October 2022). The only positive is that the rate
of year-on-year declines in the property related data has started to moderate. Residential property investment
fell by 11.6% YoY in September. Residential floor space sold declined by 17.9% YoY in September, compared
with a 24.5% YoY decline in August, while residential floor space started fell by 43.9% YoY, compared with a
47.2% YoY decline in August (see Exhibits 2 and 3). Meanwhile, exports have also clearly turned down. Export
growth in US dollar terms has slowed from 17.9% YoY in July to 5.7% YoY in September (see Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 2: China residential floor space sold %YoY

120 (%YoY) China residential floor space sold
100
80
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Source: CEIC Data, National Bureau of Statistics

Exhibit 3: China residential floor space started

Source: CEIC Data, National Bureau of Statistics

27 October 2022 2
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 4: China export growth in US dollar terms

70 (%YoY)
China export growth (Jan-Feb combined)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: CEIC Data

GREED & fear’s base case is still that the central government will come up with some policy to address the
issue of unfinished residential projects. But if nothing is done by the end of this year, fears of a hard landing
will grow. For Xi this has to be a risk. Wealthy Chinese setting up family offices in Singapore, a long-established
trend which is now accelerating, is one thing, but alienating the property owning middle-class is quite another.

Meanwhile the latest developments prompt further asset allocation switches. The growing cyclical risk facing
China’s economy, given the deteriorating property outlook and continuing Covid suppression, can be seen in
the renewed correlation of that old favorite of GREED & fear’s, the longstanding relationship between PPI
inflation and industrial profits (see Exhibit 5). The correlation between China PPI inflation and industrial profit
growth had been 0.72 between 2011 and 2019 but has broken down in the recent past. A renewed pickup
would not be hopeful for China’s ambitions to avoid the middle-class trap.

The weighting in China in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio will be reduced by a further two
percentage points, while the weightings in Australia and Korea will be increased by one percentage point each
(see Exhibit 28).

Exhibit 5: China PPI inflation and industrial profit growth

140 (%YoY, 3mma) China industrial profit growth China PPI inflation (RHS) (%YoY) 14
120 12

100 10
8
80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
0 (2)
(20) (4)
(40) (6)
Sep 11

Sep 12

Sep 13

Sep 14

Sep 15

Sep 16

Sep 17

Sep 18

Sep 19

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 11

May 12

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 19

May 20

May 21

May 22
Jan 11

Jan 12

Jan 13

Jan 14

Jan 15

Jan 16

Jan 17

Jan 18

Jan 19

Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22

Source: CEIC Data, National Bureau of Statistics

27 October 2022 3
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Meanwhile the still unanswered question of who will replace the outgoing technocrats prompts GREED & fear
to reduce the asset allocation to the China 10-year bond by a further ten percentage points in the global
sovereign bond portfolio. This will be replaced by the Qatari US dollar bond maturing 2049 (see Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 6: Global sovereign bond portfolio

Government bonds Yield (%) Weight (%) Previous (%)
China renminbi 10-year 2.70 20 30
Indonesia rupiah 10-year 7.58 20 20
India rupee 15-year 7.50 20 20
Malaysia ringgit 10-year 4.41 10 10
Singapore dollar 10-year 3.45 10 10
UAE intl. bond maturing 2041 (USD) 5.41 10 10
Qatari intl. bond maturing 2049 (USD) 5.68 10 0
Average yield/Total weight 5.45 100 100

Source: Jefferies

That said GREED & fear’s base case is that China’s monetary and fiscal policy will remain fundamentally
orthodox given that the PRC has traditionally been a hard money regime. Remember that the key reason why
the PRC was able to take power in 1949 was that the Kuomintang national government had presided over a
disastrous period of hyperinflation.

The other outcome of last week’s meeting, and the signals sent, is that fund managers specialising in the
emerging market asset class should expect a growing interest in emerging market ex-China mandates. This
trend was already underway and will now accelerate.

While attention has been on China for understandable reasons, Wall Street-correlated world stock markets
have taken some comfort from an article first published last Friday by the WSJ. This focused on the potential
for Fed tightening to slow after the assumed 75bp hike in the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.0% at the November
FOMC meeting on 1-2 November (see Wall Street Journal article: “Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 point and
Debate Size of Future Hikes” by Nick Timiraos, 21 October 2022). The article noted that some Fed officials
have begun signaling their desire both to “slow down the pace of increases soon” and to “stop raising rates
early next year” in order to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy and to reduce the risk of
causing an unnecessarily sharp slowdown.

This creates the potential for “another peaking out of inflation” narrative to support markets into year-end,
most particularly if the October CPI data point, due to be reported on 10 November, comes in lower because
of the improved based effect. GREED & fear must admit that this, and a perceived positive outcome of the mid-
term elections, has the potential to drive a rally into year-end even despite the obvious earnings downgrade
risks going into next year because of the rising recession risk. In this respect, the single biggest warning sign
of the potential sharp slowdown in the US economy next year remains the collapse in broad money supply
growth. US M2 has now declined by an annualised 2.2% over the past six months, the biggest six-month
annualised decline since the monthly data series began in 1959. While on a year-on-year basis, US M2 growth
has slowed to 2.6% YoY in September, the lowest YoY growth since July 2010, down from a peak of 26.9%
YoY in February 2021 (see Exhibit 7).

27 October 2022 4
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 7: US M2 growth

40 (%) US M2 %YoY %6m annualised

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
Source: Federal Reserve

It is also worth noting that an alternative to M2, namely “other deposits” of all commercial banks, which
measures all US bank deposits excluding the less liquid “large time deposits”, rose by only 0.6% YoY in the
week ended 12 October and is down 4.5% on a six-month annualised basis (see Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8: Growth in other deposits of all US commercial banks (total deposits less large time deposits)
50 %YoY 6m %chg annualised

40

30

20

10

(10)
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Note: Weekly data up to the week ended 12 October 2022. Source: Federal Reserve

Clearly, the Fed does not formally monitor M2, and has continued to fail to admit that its monetary expansion
in 2020 was the prime cause of the surge in inflation over the past 18 months. In this respect, the American
central bank is flying blind. Meanwhile its problem remains that it is in a mission to restore its credibility while
the labour market it is tracking, as a result of its employment mandate, is a lagging indicator. For such reasons
GREED & fear is surprised that the latest WSJ article was encouraged by the Fed. Indeed it only serves to dilute
the message Powell sought to convey in his Jackson Hole speech in late August which, as revealed in another
article by the same writer, was rewritten a few days before the event to send a clearer message (see Wall
Street Journal article: “Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker” by Nick Timiraos, 19 September
2022). Remember the Fed chairman stated in his speech that the Fed would “keep at it” (i.e., monetary
tightening) until “the job is done”.

Meanwhile GREED & fear’s practical advice to investors remains to pay most attention to what Fed Vice Chair
Lael Brainard has to say. While GREED & fear’s base case is a fudging, in due course, of the 2% target, the

27 October 2022 5
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
exact timing of that fudge is obviously crucial. Meanwhile for the Fed to justify such a fudge, inflation
expectations need to continue to behave which means the five-year five-year forward inflation expectation
rate needs to continue to behave. GREED & fear mentions this because they have moved up again of late, while
the latest University of Michigan survey of real world inflation expectations also rose, though is still below the
peak level recorded in June. The US five-year five-year inflation expectation rate rose from 2.15% in early
October to 2.46% on Monday and is now 2.32%. It remains below the recent high of 2.67% reached in April
(see Exhibit 9). While the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey shows that the five-year expected
inflation rose from 2.7% in September to 2.9% in early October, compared with 3.1% in June (see Exhibit 10).

Exhibit 9: US 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectation rate

2.8 (%) US 5Y 5Y forward inflation expectation rate

2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
May-20

Oct-20

May-21

Oct-21

May-22

Oct-22
Sep-20

Nov-20

Sep-21

Nov-21

Sep-22
Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Dec-20

Dec-21
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis

Exhibit 10: University of Michigan consumer survey: 5-year expected inflation

3.5 (%) University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey: 5-year expected inflation

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.1
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Source: University of Michigan

If inflation expectations remain reasonably well behaved in America, they are clearly rising in Japan as
reflected in the latest Tankan survey data. The Bank of Japan’s 3Q22 Tankan survey, released in early October,
shows that Japanese companies expect inflation to reach 2.6% in one year’s time, up from 1.1% in the 4Q21
poll, while five-year inflation expectations rose from 1.3% in 4Q21 to 2.0% in the 3Q22 survey (see Exhibit 11).

This is not surprising given Kuroda’s continuing stubborn commitment to yield curve control. The Bank of
Japan began its policy meeting today. This in turn raises the issue of the futility of recent costly Ministry of
Finance intervention in the foreign exchange market if monetary policy is not adjusted. Indeed the irony is that

27 October 2022 6
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
monetary intervention to support a currency is in itself a form of monetary tightening. On this point, Japan’s
foreign exchange reserves have declined by 12% so far this year to US$1.12tn at the end of September, while
the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has contracted by 7.2% since peaking in June (see Exhibit 12).

Exhibit 11: Bank of Japan Tankan survey: Enterprises' inflation outlook (General prices)
3.0 (%)
5 years ahead 1 year ahead
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21
Source: Bank of Japan

Exhibit 12: Japan foreign exchange reserves and Bank of Japan balance sheet

1,340 (US$bn) (Yen tn) 750

1,310 700

1,280 650

1,250 600

1,220 550

1,190 500

1,160 450
Japan foreign exchange reserves Bank of Japan assets (RHS)
1,130 400

1,100 350
Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Note: Foreign exchange reserves data up to September 2022. Bank of Japan assets up to 20 October 2022. Source: Bank of Japan,
Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg

In this respect the one development, aside from sheer market pressures, that might force even Kuroda to
change policy is evidence of rising wage pressures in Japan. In this respect, the latest wage data offers a
glimmer of hope for long suffering employees. Thus, the average monthly scheduled cash earnings growth
for full-time employees rose from 1.1% YoY in July to 1.6% YoY in August, the highest level since October 1997
(see Exhibit 13). Meanwhile it is also worth noting again that the 30-year JGB yield is now up 86bp year to date
to 1.55% even as the 10-year yield remains fixed at around 0.25% (see Exhibit 14). As for the latest inflation
data, core CPI (excluding fresh food) was 3% YoY in September, one whole percentage point above Kuroda’s
longstanding target (see Exhibit 15).

The other issue raised by the continuing commitment to yield curve control is when Japan is going to follow
the Eurozone example of ending the always insane policy of negative interest rates. This would certainly be
welcomed by Japan’s banking sector.

27 October 2022 7
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 13: Japan average monthly scheduled cash earnings growth for full-time employees

3.0 (%YoY)
Japan average monthly scheduled cash earnings (full-time employees)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
(0.5)
(1.0)
(1.5)
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Exhibit 14: Japan 10-year and 20-year JGB yields

1.8 (%)
1.6 30-year JGB 10-year JGB

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
(0.2)
(0.4)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 15: Japan core CPI inflation

3.5 (%YoY)
Japan core CPI (excl. fresh food)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
(0.5)
(1.0)
(1.5)
(2.0)
(2.5)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

Source: Japan Statistics Bureau

27 October 2022 8
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
It has been a long time coming. But the Bank of Thailand finally tightened last quarter for the first time since
December 2018. It raised rates by 25bp in August and then by a further 25bp in September, taking the 1-day
repo rate to 1% (see Exhibit 16). Still with headline CPI rising by 6.41% YoY in September, though down from
7.86% in August, the real Thai 1-day repo rate, deflated by headline CPI, remains a negative 5.1%. Meanwhile
core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.12% YoY in September.

The Thai central bank’s forecast is for inflation to return to its 3% upper target range next year on the hoped
for easing of supply chain concerns. Money markets are expecting only a further 25bp of tightening to 1.25%
by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year government bond yield is 3.25%, up from 1.48% in August 2021
(see Exhibit 17).

Exhibit 16: Bank of Thailand policy rate and Thailand CPI inflation

8 (%) BOT policy 1-day repo rate

7
Headline CPI inflation %YoY
6
5 Core CPI inflation %YoY
4
3
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12
Jul-10

Apr-13
Jul-11

Apr-14
Jul-12

Apr-15
Jul-13

Apr-16
Jul-14

Apr-17
Jul-15

Apr-18
Jul-16

Apr-19
Jul-17

Apr-20
Jul-18

Apr-21
Jul-19

Apr-22
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Source: Bank of Thailand, CEIC Data

Exhibit 17: Thailand 10-year government bond yield

4.5 (%)
4.0 Thai 10-year government bond yield
3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5
Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Apr-13
Jul-13

Apr-14
Jul-14

Apr-15
Jul-15

Apr-16
Jul-16

Apr-17
Jul-17

Apr-18
Jul-18

Apr-19
Jul-19

Apr-20
Jul-20

Apr-21
Jul-21

Apr-22
Jul-22
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Source: Bloomberg

Tourist arrivals have continued to pick up since Thailand re-opened its borders in February. There were 1.3m
arrivals in September, which compares with 3.3m a month pre-pandemic (see Exhibit 18). The hope is that
this will rise to 1.5m a month this quarter. The major negative remains the continuing absence of the mainland
Chinese who accounted for 28% of tourist arrivals in 2019. Meanwhile, the importance of tourism to the overall
economy remains hard to exaggerate with an estimated 20% of private consumption accounted for by foreign
tourism prior to the pandemic.

27 October 2022 9
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Tisco, Jefferies’ Thai research partner, forecasts 26m tourist arrivals in 2023, though this assumes a return of
Chinese tourists when the economy is expected to grow by 4.1% compared with the forecast 3.1% real GDP
growth in 2022.

Exhibit 18: Thailand tourist arrivals

4.0 (m) From other countries

3.5 From China
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Source: CEIC Data, Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Meanwhile the stock market has continued to benefit this year from record foreign investor inflows.
Foreigners have bought a net Bt149bn worth of Thai stocks year-to-date (see Exhibit 19), after selling a net
Bt49bn last year and a net Bt671bn in the past five years, though they have sold a net Bt25bn since September.
The positives remain the reopening story and the fact that the Thai market is weighted into cyclical sectors,
such as banks and energy. MSCI Thailand has a 14% weighting in the energy sector and 8.8% in financials. By
contrast, domestic institutions have sold a net Bt137bn year to date.

Exhibit 19: Foreign and domestic institutions net buying of Thai stocks

200 (Bt bn) Foreigners Local institutions

150
100
50
0
(50)
(100)
(150)
(200)
(250)
(300)
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Note: Data up to 26 October 2022. Source: Bloomberg

One risk to GREED & fear is the negative interest rates which make the baht still vulnerable. After depreciating
by 10.3% against the US dollar last year, the baht has declined by a further 11.6% year to date (see Exhibit 20).
The baht has traditionally tracked the current account. So a potential positive is an improvement in the current
account as tourism has started to pick up, though for now the current account has continued to deteriorate.
The current account balance has declined from a surplus of US$38bn or 7% of GDP in 2019 to an annualised

27 October 2022 10
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
deficit of US$20.5bn or 4.3% of GDP in the 12 months to August (see Exhibit 21). The monthly current account
deficit in July was a record US$4.15bn.

Exhibit 20: Thai baht/US$ (inverted scale)

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 21: Thailand current account balance

8 (US$bn) Thailand monthly current account balance (%) 12

as % of GDP, annualised (RHS) 10
6
8
4
6
2 4

0 2
0
(2)
(2)
(4)
(4)
(6) (6)
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Source: Bank of Thailand, CEIC Data

The risk, with the central bank’s still fundamentally dovish approach, remains that Thailand has an open capital
account and is, therefore, vulnerable to capital outflow. The capital account data is only released quarterly but
the reserves to imports ratio has been falling. Foreign reserves have declined from a peak of US$258bn or 15
months of imports at the end of 2020 to US$198bn or 8 months of imports in mid-October (see Exhibit 22).
Still, the capital and financial accounts recorded a net inflow of US$892m in 2Q22 and an annualised US$8bn
(see Exhibit 23).

Another area of potential risk remains excess deposits in the banking system with CASA (current and saving
accounts) accounting for 75% of total deposits, up from 62% before the pandemic (see Exhibit 24). The risk
is, therefore, a renewed surge in capital outflows which is why, in terms of baht stability, the number of tourist
arrivals remains is a key variable. Meanwhile, bank loan growth was 4.0% YoY in August (see Exhibit 25).

27 October 2022 11
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 22: Thailand foreign reserves

300 (US$bn) Thailand total foreign reserves as months of imports (RHS)

(month) 16

250 14

200 12

150 10

100 8

50 6

0 4
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
Note: Data as of 14 October 2022. Source: Bank of Thailand

Exhibit 23: Thailand capital and financial account balance

30
(US$bn) Thailand capital and financial account balance Annualised
20

10

(10)

(20)

(30)
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
Source: Bank of Thailand, CEIC Data

Exhibit 24: Thailand CASA deposits as % of total bank deposits

80%
Thai CASA deposits as % of total bank deposits
75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Note: CASA = Current and saving accounts. Source: Bank of Thailand, CEIC Data

27 October 2022 12
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 25: Thailand bank loan growth

16 (%YoY)
Thailand bank loan growth
14

12

10

0
Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22
Source: Bank of Thailand

As for politics, a general election is due to be held in May next year. The base case remains that, if a general
election was held now, the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party would win comfortably. Still the Pheu Thai will be
hoping to win a decisive mandate of more than 250 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives which
would make it hard for the establishment, including the current ruling military dominated Palang Pracharath
Party led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, to question the result. The last time the Thaksin party won so
decisively was in 2011 when it won 265 seats and was led by the exiled Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra.
An opinion poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) on 15-21
September showed that Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin, remains the top choice of voters for
the post of prime minister. She received 21.6% of support, followed by 10.56% for opposition Move Forward
leader Pita Limjaroenrat and 10.12% for Prayuth, though it should be noted that 24.16% of respondents are
still “undecided” (see Exhibit 26).

Exhibit 26: Thailand 2023 general election opinion polls: Preferred prime minister

(%) 10-15 Mar 22 20-23 Jun 22 15-21 Sep 22

30 27.62
25.28
24.16
25
21.60

20 18.68

15 12.67 13.42 13.24

12.53
11.68
10.12 10.56
9.12
10 8.22
6.80

0
Prayuth Chan-Ocha Pita Limcharoenrat Paetongtarn Shinawatra Sudarat Keyuraphan Undecided
Source: National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) polls

The government, in terms of economic policy, has continued to focus on transfer payments in the rural areas
which means infrastructure investment has remained more or less on hold. The government agreed in early
September a 6.6% increase in the minimum wage this year in Bangkok from Bt331 a day to Bt353 a day after
only 1-2% annual increases in the past ten years (see Exhibit 27). But this was considerably less than what
trade unions were pushing for. The last big rise was in 2011 when Yingluck was Prime Minister, when the daily
27 October 2022 13
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
minimum wage rate was raised by 40% from Bt215 to Bt300. About 20-25% of the workforce is covered by the
minimum wage.

GREED & fear will maintain a neutral weighting in Thailand in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio.

Exhibit 27: Bangkok daily minimum wage

400 (Bt/day)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Ministry of Labour, CEIC Data

Finally, some changes will be made in the Japan long-only portfolio. The investment in Shiseido will be
removed, while the investments in Seven & I, SBI Holdings and Resona will be increased by one percentage
point each (see Exhibit 29).

Exhibit 28: Asia Pacific ex-Japan asset allocation

(%) MSCI AC Asia Recommended Mismatch
Pacific ex-Japan weightings from
weightings 27-Oct-22 benchmark
26-Oct-22 (ppt)
Australia 17.8 10.0 (7.8)
China 27.2 28.0 0.8
Hong Kong 5.8 6.5 0.7
India 15.2 16.0 0.8
Indonesia 2.2 6.0 3.8
Korea 11.2 11.0 (0.2)
Malaysia 1.5 4.0 2.5
New Zealand 0.4 0.0 (0.4)
Philippines 0.7 1.0 0.3
Singapore 3.3 3.0 (0.3)
Taiwan 12.7 10.5 (2.2)
Thailand 2.1 2.0 (0.1)
Vietnam -- 2.0 2.0
Total 100.0 100.0 --

Source: Jefferies, MSCI

27 October 2022 14
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Exhibit 29: Japan long-only thematic portfolio
Theme Weight (%) Stocks Description Weight (%)

Autos 12 Toyota Motor automaker 4

Toyota Industries auto parts maker & logistics 4
Suzuki Motor automaker 4
Machinery 17 Keyence optical-sensor maker 5
Fanuc industrial robot maker 5
Nabtesco precision gear manufacturer 3
Nidec Corp precision motor maker 4
Consumer 22 Hitachi electronic equipment maker 4
Sony consumer electronics maker 5
Recruit Holdings recruitment company 4
Fast Retailing clothing chain operator 4
Seven & I convenience store operator 5
Financials 12 SBI Holdings financial services company 5
Resona Holdings regional bank 7
Oil & gas 14 INPEX Corp oil and gas producer 6
Eneos Holdings oil refiner 4
Idemitsu Kosan oil refiner 4
Gold mining 5 Sumitomo Metal Mining gold & non-ferrous metal miner 5
Healthcare 8 Hoya optical glass maker 4
Takeda Pharmaceutical pharma company 4
Trading 5 Mitsubishi Corp general trading company 5
Telecom 5 KDDI Corp telecom carrier 5

Source: Jefferies

27 October 2022 15
Please see important disclosure information at the end of this report.
Analyst Certification:
I, Christopher Wood, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Registration of non-US analysts: Christopher Wood is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC
and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC,
a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject
company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in
this report receives compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We
seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry
reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's
judgement.

Investment Recommendation Record

(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Recommendation Completion October 27, 2022 , 12:12 ET.
Recommendation Distributed October 27, 2022 , 12:12 ET.

Company Specific Disclosures

Jefferies Group LLC makes a market in the securities or ADRs of Sony Group Corporation.

Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services
from Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. within the next three months.

For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://
javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.

Explanation of Jefferies Ratings

Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month
period.
Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within
a 12-month period.
Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less
within a 12-month period.
The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below
$10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold
rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is
plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with an average security price consistently below
$10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month period.
NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable
regulations and/or Jefferies policies.
CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company.
NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company.
Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable
securities regulations prohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations.
Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial
projections or opinions on the investment merits of the company are provided.
Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and
expected total return over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are
not restricted to, analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF),
free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/
average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.

16
Jefferies Franchise Picks
Jefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month
period. Stock selection is based on fundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction,
differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward ratio and investment themes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies
Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number can vary depending on analyst recommendations for inclusion.
Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for inclusion changes, the stock has met its desired
return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P
stocks will continue to have a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended to represent
a recommended portfolio of stocks and is not sector based, but we may note where we believe a Pick falls within an investment
style such as growth or value.
Risks which may impede the achievement of our Price Target
This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors.
As such, the financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own
investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors
as they deem necessary. Past performance of the financial instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an
indication or guarantee of future results. The price, value of, and income from, any of the financial instruments mentioned in this
report can rise as well as fall and may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors. If a financial instrument
is denominated in a currency other than the investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price of,
value of, or income derived from the financial instrument described in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs,
whose values are affected by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Other Companies Mentioned in This Report
• Hoya Corp. (7741 JP: ¥14,700, BUY)
• KDDI Corporation (9433 JP: ¥4,406, HOLD)
• Keyence (6861 JP: ¥51,220, BUY)
• Mitsubishi Corporation (8058 JP: ¥4,095, BUY)
• Nabtesco Corp. (6268 JP: ¥3,110, HOLD)
• Nidec Corporation (6594 JP: ¥8,231, BUY)
• Recruit Holdings Co. (6098 JP: ¥4,621, BUY)
• SBI Holdings (8473 JP: ¥2,668, BUY)
• Shiseido (4911 JP: ¥5,142, HOLD)
• Sony Group Corporation (6758 JP: ¥9,884, BUY)
• Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP: ¥4,209, HOLD)
• Suzuki Motor (7269 JP: ¥4,817, BUY)
• Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (4502 JP: ¥3,825, BUY)
• Toyota Motor (7203 JP: ¥2,020, HOLD)
Distribution of Ratings
Distribution of Ratings

IB Serv./Past12 Mos. JIL Mkt Serv./Past12 Mos.

Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent

BUY 2009 61.59% 81 4.03% 17 0.85%

HOLD 1107 33.94% 16 1.45% 3 0.27%

UNDERPERFORM 146 4.48% 1 0.68% 0 0.00%

17
Other Important Disclosures
Jefferies does business and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports, and expects to receive or intends
to seek compensation for investment banking services among other activities from such companies. As a result, investors should
be aware that Jefferies may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Jefferies Equity Research refers to research reports produced by analysts employed by one of the following Jefferies Group LLC
("Jefferies") group companies:
United States: Jefferies LLC which is an SEC registered broker-dealer and a member of FINRA (and distributed by Jefferies Research
Services, LLC, an SEC registered Investment Adviser, to clients paying separately for such research).
United Kingdom: Jefferies International Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; registered in
England and Wales No. 1978621; registered office: 100 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 4JL; telephone +44 (0)20 7029 8000; facsimile
+44 (0)20 7029 8010.
Germany: Jefferies GmbH, which is authorized and regulated by the Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin-ID:
10150151; registered office: Bockenheimer Landstr. 24, 60232 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; telephone: +49 (0) 69 719 1870
Hong Kong: Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong with CE number
ATS546; located at Suite 2201, 22nd Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong.
Singapore: Jefferies Singapore Limited, which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; located at 80 Raffles Place
#15-20, UOB Plaza 2, Singapore 048624, telephone: +65 6551 3950.
Japan: Jefferies (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, which is a securities company registered by the Financial Services Agency of Japan
and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association; located at Tokyo Midtown Hibiya 30F Hibiya Mitsui Tower, 1-1-2
Yurakucho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0006; telephone +813 5251 6100; facsimile +813 5251 6101.
India: Jefferies India Private Limited (CIN - U74140MH2007PTC200509), licensed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India
for: Stock Broker (NSE & BSE) INZ000243033, Research Analyst INH000000701 and Merchant Banker INM000011443, located at
42/43, 2 North Avenue, Maker Maxity, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051, India; Tel +91 22 4356 6000.
Australia: Jefferies (Australia) Pty Limited (ACN 623 059 898), which holds an Australian financial services license (AFSL 504712)
and is located at Level 22, 60 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000; telephone +61 2 9364 2800.
This report was prepared by personnel who are associated with Jefferies (Jefferies International Limited, Jefferies GmbH, Jefferies
Hong Kong Limited, Jefferies Singapore Limited, Jefferies (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, Jefferies India Private Limited), and
Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd; or by personnel who are associated with both Jefferies LLC and Jefferies Research Services LLC ("JRS").
Jefferies LLC is a US registered broker-dealer and is affiliated with JRS, which is a US registered investment adviser. JRS does
not create tailored or personalized research and all research provided by JRS is impersonal. If you are paying separately for this
research, it is being provided to you by JRS. Otherwise, it is being provided by Jefferies LLC. Jefferies LLC, JRS, and their affiliates
are collectively referred to below as "Jefferies". Jefferies may seek to do business with companies covered in this research report.
As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only one of many factors in making their investment decisions. Specific conflict of interest
and other disclosures that are required by FINRA and other rules are set forth in this disclosure section.
***
If you are receiving this report from a non-US Jefferies entity, please note the following: Unless prohibited by the provisions of
Regulation S of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, this material is distributed in the United States by Jefferies LLC, which
accepts responsibility for its contents in accordance with the provisions of Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of
1934, as amended. Transactions by or on behalf of any US person may only be effected through Jefferies LLC. In the United Kingdom
and European Economic Area this report is issued and/or approved for distribution by Jefferies International Limited ("JIL”) and/or
Jefferies GmbH and is intended for use only by persons who have, or have been assessed as having, suitable professional experience
and expertise, or by persons to whom it can be otherwise lawfully distributed.
JIL and Jefferies GmbH allows its analysts to undertake private consultancy work. JIL and Jefferies GmbH’s conflicts management
policy sets out the arrangements JIL and Jefferies GmbH employs to manage any potential conflicts of interest that may arise as
a result of such consultancy work. Jefferies LLC, JIL, Jefferies GmbH and their affiliates, may make a market or provide liquidity
in the financial instruments referred to in this report; and where they do make a market, such activity is disclosed specifically in
this report under “company specific disclosures”.
For Canadian investors, this material is intended for use only by professional or institutional investors. None of the investments or
investment services mentioned or described herein is available to other persons or to anyone in Canada who is not a "Designated
Institution" as defined by the Securities Act (Ontario). In Singapore, Jefferies Singapore Limited (“JSL”) is regulated by the Monetary

18
Authority of Singapore. For investors in the Republic of Singapore, where this material is prepared and issued by a Jefferies affiliate
outside of Singapore, it is distributed by JSL pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. The material
contained in this document is intended solely for accredited, expert or institutional investors, as defined under the Securities and
Futures Act 2001 (Singapore). If there are any matters arising from, or in connection with this material, please contact JSL, located at
80 Raffles Place #15-20, UOB Plaza 2, Singapore 048624, telephone: +65 6551 3950. In Japan, this material is issued and distributed
by Jefferies (Japan) Limited to institutional investors only. In Hong Kong, this report is issued and approved by Jefferies Hong Kong
Limited and is intended for use only by professional investors as defined in the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance and
its subsidiary legislation. In the Republic of China (Taiwan), this report should not be distributed. The research in relation to this
report is conducted outside the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation
of an offer to buy any securities in the PRC. PRC investors shall have the relevant qualifications to invest in such securities and
shall be responsible for obtaining all relevant approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registrations from the relevant governmental
authorities themselves. In India, this report is made available by Jefferies India Private Limited. In Australia, this report is issued and/
or approved for distribution by, or on behalf of, Jefferies (Australia) Securities Pty Ltd (ACN 610 977 074), which holes an Australian
financial services license (AFSL 487263). It is directed solely at wholesale clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001
(Cth) of Australia (the “Corporations Act”), in connection with their consideration of any investment or investment service that is
the subject of this report. This report may contain general financial product advice. Where this report refers to a particular financial
product, you should obtain a copy of the relevant product disclosure statement or offer document before making any decision in
relation to the product. Recipients of this document in any other jurisdictions should inform themselves about and observe any
applicable legal requirements in relation to the receipt of this document.
This report is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or derivative instrument, or to make any investment. Any
opinion or estimate constitutes the preparer's best judgment as of the date of preparation, and is subject to change without notice.
Jefferies assumes no obligation to maintain or update this report based on subsequent information and events. Jefferies, and their
respective officers, directors, and employees, may have long or short positions in, or may buy or sell any of the securities, derivative
instruments or other investments mentioned or described herein, either as agent or as principal for their own account. This material
is provided solely for informational purposes and is not tailored to any recipient, and is not based on, and does not take into account,
the particular investment objectives, portfolio holdings, strategy, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. As such, any advice or
recommendation in this report may not be suitable for a particular recipient. Jefferies assumes recipients of this report are capable
of evaluating the information contained herein and of exercising independent judgment. A recipient of this report should not make
any investment decision without first considering whether any advice or recommendation in this report is suitable for the recipient
based on the recipient’s particular circumstances and, if appropriate or otherwise needed, seeking professional advice, including tax
advice. Jefferies does not perform any suitability or other analysis to check whether an investment decision made by the recipient
based on this report is consistent with a recipient’s investment objectives, portfolio holdings, strategy, financial situation, or needs.
By providing this report, neither JRS nor any other Jefferies entity accepts any authority, discretion, or control over the management
of the recipient’s assets. Any action taken by the recipient of this report, based on the information in the report, is at the recipient’s
sole judgment and risk. The recipient must perform his or her own independent review of any prospective investment. If the recipient
uses the services of Jefferies LLC (or other affiliated broker-dealers), in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is a
subject of these materials, such broker-dealer may act as principal for its own accounts or as agent for another person. Only JRS
is registered with the SEC as an investment adviser; and therefore neither Jefferies LLC nor any other Jefferies affiliate has any
fiduciary duty in connection with distribution of these reports.
The price and value of the investments referred to herein and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide
to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates
could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
This report may contain forward looking statements that may be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks,
uncertainties, and other important factors. As a result, the actual results, events, performance or achievements of the financial
product may be materially different from those expressed or implied in such statements.
This report has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not as agent of any issuer of securities.
No Equity Research personnel have authority whatsoever to make any representations or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). Any
comments or statements made herein are those of the Jefferies entity producing this report and may differ from the views of other
Jefferies entities.
This report may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from credit ratings agencies such as Standard &
Poor’s. Reproduction and distribution of third party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the
related third party. Jefferies does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including

19
ratings, and is not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained
from the use of such content. Third-party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any
warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Neither Jefferies nor any third-party content provider shall
be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses,
legal fees, or losses (including lost income or profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including
ratings. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell
securities. They do not address the suitability of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes, and should not
be relied on as investment advice.
Jefferies research reports are disseminated and available electronically, and, in some cases, also in printed form. Electronic research
is simultaneously made available to all clients. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without
the written consent of Jefferies. Neither Jefferies nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, is responsible for
guaranteeing the financial success of any investment, or accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential
damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. Nothing herein shall be construed to waive any liability Jefferies
has under applicable U.S. federal or state securities laws.
For Important Disclosure information relating to JRS, please see https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Common/
crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx?BRCHR_VRSN_ID=483878 and https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/Firm/292142 or visit our website at https://
javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action, or www.jefferies.com, or call 1.888.JEFFERIES.
© 2022 Jefferies Group LLC

20