PROBABILITY

Unit 3
 Probability
The word probability or chance is a very commonly used word.
• Probably it may rain tomorrow
• The Chances that RCB winning the IPL title
In all the example there is an uncertainty about the event happening.
Probability is associated with uncertain events or situations.
Probability is one the important tools in statistics
It helps in providing directions when there is random variations.
Probability theory can be applied to various socio-economic problems .
The importance lies in coping up the uncertainties and helps in predictions.
Probability is the foundation of statistical inference
Probability or chance is how likely something is to happen:
▪ If something has a low probability, it is unlikely to happen.
▪ If something has a high probability, it is likely to happen.
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
Probability can be expressed as fractions, decimals or percentages, or on a probability scale.
Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1.
▪ A probability near zero indicates an event is quite unlikely to occur.
▪ A probability near one indicates an event is almost certain to occur.
 Some important concepts
❑ Random experiment
• An experiment that has two or more outcomes which vary in an unpredictable manner
from trail to trail when conducted under uniform conditions.
• The tossing of a coin is random experiment, since it has two specific outcomes –Head
and Tail.
Experiment Experiment Outcomes
• Features of a random experiment
Toss a coin Head, tail
a) It has more than one outcome Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
b) The outcome are unpredictable Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
c) The experiment is repeatable
Play a football game Win, lose, tie
• Tossing a coin, rolling a die
❑ Event
• The outcome of an experiment is termed as events or cases.
• Getting a head or a tail in tossing a coin is an event.
• Usually events are denoted by capital letters like A, B, C, etc.

❑ Sample Space
• The set containing of all the events of that random experiment.
• When a coin tossed the sample space is [H, T]
• When two coins are tossed the sample space is [HH, HT, TH, TT]
❑ Equally likely events
o Two events are said be equally likely if any one of them cannot be expected to occur in
preference to other.
o Getting Head and Getting Tail when a coin is tossed.

❑ Mutually Exclusive Events

o A set of events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them excludes (or
prevents) the possibility of the occurrence of the others.
o Two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously in the same trail.
o Getting a Head and Getting a Tail when a coin is tossed.
o Getting a Ace and Getting a King when a card is drawn from a pack of cards.
❑ Exhaustive Events
• A group of events is said to be exhaustive events when it includes all possible
outcomes of the random experiment.
• When a die is thrown , outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 together will form exhaustive events
because one of them will occur when a die is thrown.
❑ Independent Events
o Two or more events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one of them in no
way affects the occurrence of the other or the others.
o In tossing of a coin twice, the result of the second tossing is not affected by the result
of the first toss.
❑ Dependent Events
• Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one of them affects the
happening of the other.
• The chance of one event depends on the happening of the other event.
• From a pack of 52 cards if one card is drawn then 51 cards are left. If another card is
drawn without replacing the first, the chance of the second draw is affected by the first
draw.
• Drawing a King first and without replacing it, drawing again a king are dependent
events.
❑ Definitions of Probability
1) Classical or a priori Probability
2) Relative Frequency Theory of Probability
3) Subjective Approach to Probability
4) Axiomatic Approach to Probability
0<P(A)<1, A is called a random event
❖ This approach is also called theoretical probability.
❖ Drawback:
o When the total number of possible outcomes ‘n’ become infinite or countably infinite,
this definition fails to give a measure for Probability.
 3) Subjective Approach
❖ The subjective approach of calculating probability is always based on the degree of
beliefs, convictions, and experience concerning the likelihood of occurrence of a random
event.
❖ It is thus a way to quantify an individual’s beliefs, assessment, and judgment about a
random phenomenon.
❖ Probability assigned for the occurrence of an event may be based on just guess or on
having some idea about the relative frequency of past occurrences of the event.
❖ Example in sports: Probability that CSK will win the IPL title.
❖ Example 2: Probability of a nuclear meltdown in a certain reactor.
Conditional Probability
❑ Probability of an event A given that B has happened is called the conditional probability of
A given B and is denoted by P(A/B).
❑ Consider a family with two children. The different outcomes are (B,B), (B, G), (G, B), (G,
G).
❑ If it is known that the first is a boy, the outcomes are only (B,B), (B,G) so that probability
for both boys =1/2.
❑ This is under condition, first is a boy.
❑ P(both boys/first is a boy) = P(A/B) = 1/2.
❑ This is called the conditional probability as the condition is that first is a boy.
❑ If the condition is not given, P (both boys) = 1/4.
❖ Dependent Events
• Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one event in
any trail affects the probability of other events in other trails.
• The probability of any event is conditional, or depends upon the occurrence or
nonoccurrence of other events.
 Probability Distribution
❖ A random experiment results into a number of outcomes and we can find the probability for
each of these outcomes.
❖ We can assign numerical values for these outcomes.
❖ A variable which assumes values exactly same as those assigned to the outcomes.
❖ Such a variable is called as random variable associated to that random experiment.
❖ For example; Tossing a coin is a random experiment.
❖ Head and Tail are the possible outcomes.
❖ Let us assign numbers 1 and 2 to these outcomes.
❖ Consider variable X, which also takes values 1 and 2.
❖ Then X is a random variable associated to this experiment.
❖ X takes the values 1 and 2.
 ….. ……

1/8
3/8
2 3/8
1/8
4 0
X P(x) x p(x)
0 1/8 0
1 3/8 3/8
2 3/8 6/8
3 1/8 3/8
Discrete and continuous probability distribution
A probability distribution may be discrete and continuous.
A r.v is said to be discrete if it assumes only certain specified values in a given interval.
For example, in tossing two coins, the number of heads obtainable can be 0,1,2.
The variable takes values 0,1,2. This is a discrete variable.
The probability distribution of a discrete variable is a discrete probability distribution.
Binomial distribution, Poisson distribution are discrete probability distrbutions.
If a r.v is assuming any real value in a given interval say (a, b), then the variable is said to
be continuous.
The probability distribution of a continuous variable is continuous probability distribution.
Normal distribution.
 Discrete Probability Distribution
1) Binomial Distribution (BD)
Consider an event associated to a random experiment.
When the random experiment is repeated a number of times, the event may or may not
occur in each of those experiments.
The occurrence of an event termed as “success” and the non-occurrence of an event is
termed as “failure”. Therefore random experiment has only two possible outcomes
“success” and “failure”.
 Normal Distribution
A symmetrical probability distribution.
Most results are located in the middle and few are spread on both sides.
Has the shape of a bell.
Can entirely be described by its mean and standard deviation.
Normality is an important assumption when conducting statistical analysis so that they can
be applied in the right manner.
A symmetrical probability distribution where most results are located in the middle and few
are spread on both sides
Examples:
• The body temperature for healthy humans.
• The heights and weights of adults.
• The thickness and dimensions of a product.
• IQ and standardized test scores.
• Quality control test results.
• Errors in measurements.
Why ND
Used to illustrate the shape and variability of the data.
Used to estimate future process performance.
Normality is an important assumption when conducting statistical analysis.
Certain charts and many statistical inference tests require the data to be normally
distributed.
10) Area under the normal curve is distributed as follows;
▪ 68% of the data fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
▪ 95% of the data fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
▪ 99.7% of the data fall within 3 standard deviations of the mean.