Finance of The Central Government 2019-20 To 2024-25
Finance of The Central Government 2019-20 To 2024-25
Finance of The Central Government 2019-20 To 2024-25
2020-21
2021-22
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
2022-23
One of the reasons for reducing the practice of raising funds through IEBR could be the increasing indebtedness
of certain public entities. For instance, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways did not mandate the
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) to raise funds from IEBR given its increasing debt servicing
obligations.2 As of February 28, 2023, NHAI’s total outstanding debt was Rs 3.43 lakh crore.3 Its debt
servicing as a share of total allocation was 25% in 2021-22 which is expected to decrease to 21% in 2027-28.2
The Standing Committee on Transport (2022) had noted that high budgetary support alone may not be sufficient
to meet the investment requirements of NHAI.4
Share of fertiliser subsidies increased while petroleum subsidies phased out
In 2024-25, the central government’s expenditure on providing subsidies is estimated to be 1.3% of GDP and
11% of its total revenue expenditure. The central government provides various subsidies such as food subsidy,
subsidised fertilisers, petroleum subsidy (for LPG), and interest subsidies.
Tushar Chakrabarty
February 1, 2024
[email protected]
PRS Legislative Research ◼ Institute for Policy Research Studies
3rd Floor, Gandharva Mahavidyalaya ◼ 212, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Marg ◼ New Delhi – 110002
Tel: (011) 23234801, 43434035 ◼ www.prsindia.org
Finances of the Central Government PRS Legislative Research
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
increasing expenditure on food subsidy. These
include: (i) revising the central issue price and (ii)
providing direct transfer of cash subsidy to
beneficiaries.5,6,7 Between April 2020 and December
Food Fertiliser Petroleum
2022, the central government provided additional
foodgrains to NFSA beneficiaries for free. In Note: Food subsidy has been adjusted to reflect NSSF loans as part
November 2023, the central government decided to of subsidy in 2019-20 and 2020-21. RE is revised estimate and BE
provide free foodgrains to NFSA beneficiaries for five is budget estimate.
Sources: Union Budget Documents; MoSPI; PRS.
years from January 1, 2024 onwards at a cost of Rs
11.8 lakh crore.8
Fertiliser subsidy is paid to manufacturers and importers who sell fertilisers to farmers at less than market
prices.5 In the production of fertilisers, India is heavily dependent on imports for procuring raw materials. 5 The
15th Finance Commission had noted that such dependence makes India vulnerable to volatility in international
prices and makes fertiliser subsidies unsustainable.5 In the past, the central government has resorted to off-
budget financing to defer payment of fertiliser subsidy.9 The Standing Committee on Chemicals and Fertilizers
(2020) had observed that several fertiliser plants operate with very old technology. 10 Thus, the government
bears the cost of this inefficiency in terms of higher subsidy. It recommended that farmers should receive
fertiliser subsidy directly in their bank accounts while manufacturers should be free to produce and sell
fertilisers as per their own system.10
Most revenue receipts spent on committed expenditure, subsidies, grants, key schemes
Figure 3: Share of revenue receipts spent on certain key Revenue expenditure implies spending on items
items which do not lead to creation of assets. Some
160% of the major items of revenue expenditure for
the central government include committed
140% expenditure (interest, pension, salaries),
120% subsidies, finance commission grants to states,
100% and certain key schemes. Between 2019-20
and 2024-25, the central government’s
80% expenditure on these items is estimated to
60% account for over 90% of its revenue receipts.
40% In this period, the central government
consistently spent more than 65% of its revenue
20% receipts on interest, salaries, and pension. This
0% was followed by spending on food, fertiliser,
and petroleum subsidies. Since 2020-21, the
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
Other revenue expenditure not included in Figure 3 have accounted for at least 30% of the central government’s
revenue receipts between 2019-20 and 2024-25. Incurring revenue expenditure in excess of revenue receipts
implies that the central government has continued to be in revenue deficit since 2019-20 (see page 4). To
maintain a revenue balance, the central government either would have to increase revenue receipts or reduce
revenue expenditure. Note that committed expenditure on interest, salaries, and pension is difficult to
rationalise in the short to medium term. Finance commission grants given to states are also broadly unchanged
once the recommendations are accepted by the central government.
Central government’s gross tax revenue has remained largely unchanged
In 2019-20 and 2020-21, the central government’s Figure 4: Gross tax revenue and revenue from
gross tax revenue decreased to around 10% of GDP on major taxes as % of GDP
account of economic slowdown and the COVID-19 14%
pandemic respectively. It has since then recovered to 11.0%
11.5% 11.2% 11.6% 11.7%
reach around 11% of GDP which was the rate prior to 12% 10.0% 10.2%
2019-20. Income tax, corporation tax, and goods and 10%
services tax (GST) have accounted for over 70% of 8%
the central government’s gross tax revenue since
6%
2018-19. In 2024-25, revenue from each of these
three tax sources is estimated to be around 3% of 4%
GDP. In recent years, there has been a decrease in the 2%
contribution of corporate tax to the gross tax revenue. 0%
This has been driven by the reduction in corporate tax
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
rates to attract investment and support economic
growth.11 Revenue from income tax has seen an
increase in this period. The 15th Finance Commission
had noted that India’s tax base was very narrow.12 Income Tax Corporation Tax
With effect from 2020-21, the central government
introduced a new personal income tax regime where GST Gross Tax Revenue
tax rates will be reduced if tax payers forgo certain Note: RE is revised estimate and BE is budget estimate.
exemptions and deductions.12 Sources: Union Budget Documents; MoSPI; PRS.
GST was introduced in July 2017 and subsumed various taxes at the level of the Centre and states. Some of the
central taxes which were subsumed under GST include central excise duty, service tax, and central sales tax.12
Revenue from GST has remained stable at around 3% of GDP since 2018-19 except in 2020-21 when it had
reduced to 2.8% of GDP. The 15th Finance Commission had made various recommendations to improve the
efficiency of GST. These include: (i) correcting the inverted duty structure (GST rate on intermediates being
higher than final goods), (ii) improving compliance, (iii) minimising exemptions, and (iv) operating with a
three-rate structure by merging tax rates.12
Significant revenue raised through cesses and surcharges impacting funds devolved to states
The Constitution allows the central government to Figure 5: Share of revenue from cesses and
levy cesses and surcharges. However, they do not surcharges in Centre's GTR
form a part of the divisible pool of taxes from which 40% 37%
35% 35% 35%
revenue is devolved to states as per finance 35%
32% 33%
31% 32% 32%
29%
commission recommendations.13 A cess is levied for 27%
30%
a specific purpose to provide financial support to a
sector or area.12 Surcharges are also levied for short 25%
periods.12 In recent years, the central government has 20%
15% 20%
mobilised a significant amount of its revenue by 18%
15% 16%
levying cesses and surcharges. In 2020-21 and 2021- 10% 15% 14%
12% 13% 11% 13%
22, the share of revenue raised by levying various 5% 9%
cesses and surcharges was 20% and 18% respectively 0%
in the central government’s gross tax revenue (GTR)
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
2022-23
The increase in cesses and surcharges has led to a decrease in devolution to states as share of the gross tax
revenue. Thus, the finance commission formula for devolving 41% of the divisible pool has translated into 32%
of the gross tax revenue in 2024-25 as per budget estimates. In 2019, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted
that levying cesses and surcharges neutralises the increase in tax devolution recommended by successive finance
commissions.14 The RBI observed that new cesses on imports had been levied to make up for the cesses which
were subsumed under the GST. Revenue raised from cess and surcharges is estimated to decrease to 14% of
gross tax revenue in 2024-25.
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
fallen short of achieving its budget target for
disinvestment. In 2023-24, the central government’s
BE Actuals revised disinvestment receipts are estimated to be
51% lower than the budget estimates. In 2024-25,
Note: RE is revised estimate and BE is budget estimate. the Centre has budgeted to raise Rs 50,000 crore
Sources: Union Budget Documents; PRS. from disinvestment.
The central government has discontinued the sale of its shareholding in one PSU to another PSU which was one
of the ways in which it had met its disinvestment targets in the past. In 2017-18 and 2018-19, when the Centre
exceeded its budgeted disinvestment targets, 37% and 17% of such receipts accrued from PSUs buying the
government’s shareholding in other PSUs.17 Similar transactions were also done in 2019-20. In 2020, the
Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India had noted that such transactions only resulted in transfer of
resources with the public sector to the government.18 It did not lead to any change in the stake of the public
sector/government in the disinvested PSUs.18 Since 2020-21, the central government has not executed
transactions involving sale of one PSU to another PSU.
Deficits and debts are at an elevated level
Revenue and fiscal deficit of the central government Figure 7: Revenue deficit and fiscal deficit as % of
increased substantially in 2020-21. However, some GDP
of the increase (1.7% of GDP) was due to clearing 10% 9.2%
off loans given to FCI for food subsidy dues from 9%
previous years. Since then, deficits have reduced. 8% 6.7% 6.4%
However, the Centre has continued to incur a 7% 5.8%
substantial revenue deficit. Revenue deficit implies 6% 7.3% 5.1%
4.6%
that the government is borrowing to finance 5%
expenditure which does not lead to creation of assets 4%
3% 4.4%
or reduces liabilities. The FRBM Review Committee 3.9%
2% 3.3%
(2017) said that financing recurring expenditure 2.8%
1% 2.0%
through borrowings is not desirable and they should 0%
be financed through tax revenues.19 The Fiscal
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
Along with elevated revenue and fiscal deficits, the central government’s liabilities have also reached beyond
limits prescribed under the FRBM Act. In 2018, the FRBM Act was amended to limit general government debt
(Centre and states) at 60% of GDP.20 Out of this, central government debt was capped at 40% of GDP which
was to be achieved by 2024-25. This was in line with the recommendations of the FRBM review committee. 19
In 2018-19, the Centre’s debt to GDP ratio was at 48% of GDP which increased to 61% of GDP in 2020-21,
following economic slowdown and the impact of COVID-19 on government spending and revenue. Since then,
it is estimated to reduce to 57% of GDP in 2024-25. High level of debt has contributed to the central
government spending a significant portion of its revenue receipts on interest payments. In 2019-20, the central
government spent 36% of its revenue receipts on interest payments which is estimated to increase to 40% of
revenue receipts as per budget estimates of 2024-25.
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
2023-24 RE
Note: RE is revised estimate and BE is budget estimate. Note: RE is revised estimate and BE is budget estimate.
Sources: Economic Survey 2022-23; Union Budget Documents; Sources: Union Budget Documents; PRS.
PRS.
Centre has been reporting off-budget loans; however, issues persist with disclosures
Off-budget borrowings refer to borrowings that are not directly made by the government, but where principal
and interest are serviced from the government budget. Such borrowings are typically raised by government-
owned entities such as public sector enterprises. As these borrowings are not part of the government budget
documents, they lead to understatement of fiscal deficit. CAG(2018) had noted that the central government had
resorted to off-budget financing for items such as food subsidy bills and implementation of irrigation schemes. 9
It recommended that the central government may put in place a framework to disclose off-budget financing.9
Since 2019-20, the central government has Figure 10: Central government’s fiscal deficit
provided a statement disclosing off-budget including off-budget borrowings (% of GDP)
borrowings raised by public enterprises. These 9.4%
10%
were raised by: (i) issuing bonds by public
enterprises which were serviced by the central 9%
8% 6.8%
government and (ii) providing loans to public 9.2%
7% 6.4%
enterprises from the NSSF. For instance, 5.8%
5.5%
between 2016-17 and 2020-21, loans worth Rs 6% 5.1%
4.3 lakh crore were provided to the Food 5% 4.4%
4.0% 4.0%
Corporation of India from the NSSF. They were 4%
provided in lieu of food subsidy dues owed by the 4.6%
3%
Centre to the FCI. These loans to the FCI 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%
accounted for 67% of the total off-budget 2%
borrowings raised during this period. Had these 1%
loans been included in the Centre’s borrowings, 0%
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2024-25 BE
2023-24 RE
CAG has highlighted issues in the disclosure of off-budget borrowings by the central government. It noted that
the Centre did not include an amount of Rs 14,985 crore in its disclosure which was raised by Air India Assets
Holding Limited in 2019-20.22 Servicing of this debt was to be done through budgetary support provided by the
Ministry of Civil Aviation. Similarly, a one-time financing arrangement of Rs 50,551 crore for the railways
through the Indian Railways Finance Corporation (IRFC) Limited should have also been included in the
Centre’s disclosure for 2020-21.22 Note that if these items are included in off-budget borrowings, then the
adjusted fiscal deficit as shown in Figure 10 would be higher by 0.1 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point in
2019-20 and 2020-21 respectively.
1
State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2022-23, Reserve Bank of India, January 2023,
https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/0STATEFINANCE2022233E17F212337844888755EFDBCC661812.PDF.
2
Report no. 342: “Demand for Grants (2023-24) of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways”, Standing Committee on Transport,
Tourism, and Culture, Rajya Sabha, March 13, 2023,
https://sansad.in/getFile/rsnew/Committee_site/Committee_File/ReportFile/20/173/342_2023_3_15.pdf?source=rajyasabha.
3
Unstarred Question no. 2471, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Rajya Sabha, March 22, 2023,
https://sansad.in/getFile/annex/259/AU2471.pdf?source=pqars.
4
Report no. 317: ““Demand for Grants (2022-23) of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways”, Standing Committee on Transport,
Tourism, and Culture, Rajya Sabha, March 14, 2022,
https://sansad.in/getFile/rsnew/Committee_site/Committee_File/ReportFile/20/166/317_2022_9_11.pdf?source=rajyasabha.
5
Report of the 15th Finance Commission, Volume-III, The Union, October 2020, https://fincomindia.nic.in/asset/doc/commission-
reports/XVFC-Vol%20III-Union.pdf.
6
Volume-2, Economic Survey 2020-21, January 2021, https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2021-
22/economicsurvey/doc/echapter_vol2.pdf.
7
“Recommendations of High-Level Committee on restructuring of FCI”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food
and Public Distribution, January 22, 2015, https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=114860.
8
“Free Foodgrains for 81.35 crore beneficiaries for five years: Cabinet Decision”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Consumer Affairs,
Food and Public Distribution, November 29, 2023, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1980689.
9
Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Compliance of the Fiscal Responsibility of the Fiscal Resposnbility and Budget
Management Act, 2003 for the year 2016-17, Report No. 20 of 2018, Comptroller and Auditor General of India,
https://www.cag.gov.in/uploads/download_audit_report/2018/Report_No_20_of_2018_Compliance_of_the_Fiscal_Responsibility_and_Bud
get_Management_Act_2003_Department_of_Economic_Affairs_Minis.pdf.
10
Report no. 5: “Study of System of Fertiliser Subsidy”, Standing Committee on Chemicals and Fertilizers, Lok Sabha, March 17, 2020,
https://sansad.in/getFile/lsscommittee/Chemicals%20&%20Fertilizers/17_Chemicals_And_Fertilizers_5.pdf?source=loksabhadocs.
11
“Corporate tax rates slashed to 22% for domestic companies and 15% for new domestic manufacturing companies and other fiscal
reliefs”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Finance, September 20, 2019, https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1585641.
12
Report of the 15th Finance Commission, Volume-I, Main report, October 2020, https://fincomindia.nic.in/asset/doc/commission-
reports/XVFC%20VOL%20I%20Main%20Report.pdf.
13
Article 270, The Constitution of India,
https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s380537a945c7aaa788ccfcdf1b99b5d8f/uploads/2023/05/2023050195.pdf.
14
State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2019-20, Reserve Bank of India, September 2019,
https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/STATEFINANCE201920E15C4A9A916D4F4B8BF01608933FF0BB.PDF.
15
No. DPE/3(1)/2021-DD, Department of Public Enterprises, Ministry of Finance, December 13, 2021,
https://dpe.gov.in/sites/default/files/DPE_OM_DTD_13.12.21_Guidelines_on_New_PSE_Policy_0.pdf.
16
Unstarred Question No. 1670, Ministry of Finance, Rajya Sabha, August 3, 2021,
https://sansad.in/getFile/annex/254/AU1670.pdf?source=pqars.
17
Past Disinvestments, Department of Investment and Public Asset Managamanet, Ministry of Finance, as accessed on January 28, 2024,
https://dipam.gov.in/past-disinvestment.
18
Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India for the year 2018-19, Comptroller and Auditor General of India,
https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2020/Report%20No.%204%20of%202020_Eng-
05f808ecd3a8165.55898472.pdf.
19
Volume-I, FRBM Review Committee Report, January 2017,
https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/Volume%201%20FRBM%20Review%20Committee%20Report.pdf.
20
Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003,
https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/FRBM%20Act%202003%20and%20FRBM%20Rules%202004.pdf.
21
Speech of Nirmala Sitharaman, Budget 2021-22, February 1, 2021, https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2021-
22/doc/Budget_Speech.pdf.
22
Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Compliance of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003
for the year 2020-21, Comptroller and Auditor General of India, December 20, 2022,
https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2022/Report-No.-32-of-2022_FRBM_English-PDF-A_DSC-
063a28aeb5458b7.96342361.pdf.
DISCLAIMER: This document is being furnished to you for your information. You may choose to reproduce or redistribute this report for
non-commercial purposes in part or in full to any other person with due acknowledgement of PRS Legislative Research (“PRS”). The
opinions expressed herein are entirely those of the author(s). PRS makes every effort to use reliable and comprehensive information, but
PRS does not represent that the contents of the report are accurate or complete. PRS is an independent, not-for-profit group. This
document has been prepared without regard to the objectives or opinions of those who may receive it.