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PRB150S Tutorial Chapter 4 2024

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34 views2 pages

PRB150S Tutorial Chapter 4 2024

Uploaded by

ntsodoambesiwe05
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecturer: Mr.

JC Kabala 11 March 2024


Operations Management 1: PRB150S
Chapter 4: Forecasting
Tutorial

Question 1
Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are in the table below. Based on this
data, forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average.

Week Sales
1 415
2 389
3 420
4 382
5 410
6 432
7 405
8 421

Question 2
Given the following data, calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.
Year Demand
1 74
2 90
3 59
4 91
5 140
6 98
7 110
8 123
9 99

Question 3
Given the forecast demand and actual demand for 10-foot fishing boats, compute the MAD, MSE and
MAPE.
Year Forecast Demand Actual Demand
1 78 71
2 75 80
3 83 101
4 84 84
5 88 60
6 85 73

Question 4
The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts (for the
same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.

Page 1 of 2
Lecturer: Mr. JC Kabala 11 March 2024
Question 5
Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. Compute a three-period moving
average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute MAD for each forecast.
Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.

Week Sales (cases)


1 17
2 21
3 27
4 31
5 19
6 17
7 21

Question 7
The last seven weeks of demand at a new car dealer are shown below. Use a three-period weighted-
moving average to determine a forecast for the 8th week using weights of 1, 2, and 3.
Week Sales
1 25
2 30
3 27
4 31
5 27
6 29
7 30

Calculate the MAD for this forecast. What does the MAD indicate?
Question 9
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in
the following table:
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Registrations (000) 4 6 4 5 10 8 7 8 12 14 15

a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12.
b) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which
registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years
are each given a weight of 1.
c) Graph the original data and the two forecasts. Which of the two forecasting methods seems better?
d) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the registrations at the
seminar. Assume that the forecast for year 1 was 5,000 people signing up.
i. What is the MAD?
ii. What is the MSE?

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