PROBABILITY INTRODUCTION

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they
are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more
likely an event is to occur. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will
occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes
('heads' and 'tails') are both equally probable; the probability of 'heads' equals the probability of 'tails'; and
since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either 'heads' or 'tails' is 1/2 (which could also be
written as 0.5 or 50%).

WHY IS PROBABILITY IMPORTANT?

You use or see probability all around you on a daily basis. Even if you don't realize it, you use probability
every day to make decisions about things with an unknown outcome. You may unknowingly perform
mathematical calculations with theoretical or experimental probability, or you may make judgment calls
with subjective probability. Here are some real-life examples of how you might use or see probability
every day.

WEAHER

Meteorologists aren’t able to exactly predicts the weather, so they use instruments and tools to find the
likelihood of snow, rain or other weather conditions. If there is a 30% chance of rain, the meteorologist
has determined the probability of rain such that it has rained on 30 out of 100 days with similar weather
conditions. Because of the forecast, you use probability to decide weather to wear sandals or rain boots to
work that morning.
SPORTS

Competitions and games. For example, if a football kicker makes 10 out of 15 field goals throughout the
season, the probability of him scoring his next field goal is 10/15 or 2/3. Another example is a baseball
coach calculating a player's batting average to determine the lineup for a game. If a player has a
300batting average, that means he's gotten three hits out of every 10 bats, and the probability of him
getting a base hit is 3/10.

INSURANCE

When analyzing insurance policies and considering deductible amounts, probability plays an important
role. For example, if 20 out of every 100 drivers in your area have gotten hail damage in the last year,
then when choosing your car insurance policy, you can use probability to understand that there's a 1/5
chance your car will get hail damage. This significant probability may encourage you to get
comprehensive cover for hail damage and maybe even a lower deductible.

GAMES
When you play games with an element of luck or chance, like board games, card games or videogames,
you often weigh the odds of a desirable event happening like getting the card you need or rolling a
specific number on the die. The likelihood of that favorable event happening helps you determine when to
take a risk or how much you're willing to risk. One example is poker players who know the probability of
getting certain hands, like that there's a 42% chance of getting two of a kind versus a 2% chance of
getting three of kind.

PROBABILITY TERMS

SAMPLE SPACE
A sample space is the set of possible outcomes that can occur in a trial. For example, wen tossing a coin,
the set of possible outcomes is {heads, tails}. Or when rolling a single die, the set of possible outcomes is
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
SAMPLE POINT

A sample point is one of the possible outcomes in a sample space. For example, when using a deck of
cards, a sample point would be the ace of spades or the queen of hearts.

EXPERIMENT OR TRAIL

An experiment or trail is when the outcomes are always uncertain in a series of actions. For example,
selecting a card from a deck, tossing a coin or rolling a die.

EVENT

An event is one single outcomes as the result of a trial or experiment. For example, getting a three when
rolling a die, or getting an eight of clubs when choosing a card out of a deck.

OUTCOME

An outcome is a possible result you can get from doing a trial or experiment, for example, you could get
heads when tossing a coin.

COMPLIMENTARY EVENT

A complimentary event is a non-happening event. You write this as, “The compliment of an event X is
the event not A “. You write not X as X’. For example, with a regular deck of cards, if the event X is
drawing a diamond, then the event X’ is not drawing a diamond.

IMPOSSIBLE EVENT
An impossible event is an event that will not and cannot happen. For example, you can’t get a number
larger than six.
DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted
with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e., how likely they are
going to happen, using it. Probability can range from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an
impossible one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for Class 10 is an important topic for
the students which explains all the basic concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events
in a sample space adds up to 1.

For example,
when we toss a coin, either we get Head or Tail, only two possible outcomes are possible
(H, T). But when two coins are tossed then there will be four possible outcomes, i.e {(H, H), (H,
T), (T, H), (T, T)}.

BASIC FORMULA OF PROBABILITY

The formula for probability states that the possibility of an event happening, or P(E) equals the ratio
of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of total outcomes. Mathematically, it looks like
this:
Probability of event P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes / Total Number of outcomes

Sometimes students get mistaken for “favourable outcome” with “desirable outcome”. This is the
basic formula. But there are some more formulas for different situations or events.

TYPES OF PROBABILITY
There are three major types of probabilities
 Theoretical Probability
 Experimental Probability
 Axiomatic Probability

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is mainly
based on the reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical
probability of getting a head will be ½.

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can be
calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the total number of trials. For example,
if a coin is tossed 10 times and head is recorded 6 times then, the experimental probability for
heads is 6/10 or 3/5.
AXIOMATIC PROBABILITY
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all types. These axioms
are set by Kolmogorov and are known as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic
approach to probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be
quantified. The axiomatic probability. lesson covers this concept in detail with Kolmogorov’s
three rules (axioms) along with various examples. Conditional Probability is the likelihood of an
event or outcome occurring based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.

APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the common applications
which we see in our everyday life while checking the results of the following events:
 Choosing a card from the deck of cards
 Flipping a coin
 Throwing a dice in the air
 Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
 Winning a lucky draw
 It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries
 Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
 Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength of team
 In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share prices

BASIC CONCEPTS
PROBABILITY TREE
The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different possible outcomes. Branches and
ends of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each branch is written on the branch,
whereas the ends are containing the final outcome. Tree diagrams are used to figure out when to
multiply and when to add. You can see below a tree diagram for the coin:

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible equally likely
ways. Then the probability of happening of the event or its success is expressed as;
 P(E) = r/n
The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say;
P(E) + P(E’) = 1

This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to 1.

WHAT ARE EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS?

When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening, then they are called equally
likely events. The results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same
probability of occurring. For example, if you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
Similarly, the probability of getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and 6one at a time is 1/6.
Hence, the following are some examples of equally likely events when throwing a die:
 Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die
 Getting an even number and an odd number on a die
 Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die
are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal

PROBABILITY TERMS AND THEIR DEFINITIONS

Some of the important probability terms are discussed here:
Term Definition Example

Sample Space The set of all 1. Tossing a coin, Sample Space (S)
the possible = {H, T}
outcomes to 2. Rolling a die, Sample Space (S)
occur in any = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
trial
Sample Point It is one of the In a deck of Cards:
possible results  4 of hearts is a sample point.
 The queen of clubs is a sample
point.

Experiment or A series of The tossing of a coin, selecting a card

Trial actions where from a deck of cards, throwing a dice
the outcomes
 are always
uncertain
Event It is a single Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is
outcome of an an event.
experiment
Outcome Possible result T (tail) is a possible outcome when a
of a coin is tossed.
trial/experiment
Complimentary The non- In a standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a
event happening heart, then A’ = Don’t draw a heart
events. The
complement of
an event A is
the event, not A
(or A’)
Impossible The event In tossing a coin, impossible to get
Event cannot happen both head and tail at the same time