MODELING SIMULATION

MODELING
- Process of producing a model
- Model is the representation of construction and working of a system of interest
- Model will be similar but simpler than the system
- A good model is a judicious trade-off between realism and simplicity

MODELING PROCESS

Phase I:
1. Data collection
2. Model input preparation
3. Parameter evaluation

Phase II:
4. Calibration
5. Validation
6. Post audit

Phase III:
7. Analysis of alternatives

TYPES OF MODELS
- 4 types of models in modeling:
1. Mathematical models
2. Conceptual models
3. Physical models
4. Computational models
5. Graphical model

MATHEMATICAL MODELS
- These are simplified representations of some real-world entity
- Can be in equations or computer code
- Intended to mimic essential features while leaving out inessentials
- Assumptions in mathematical modeling include:
1. Variables (the things which change)
2. Parameters (the things which do not change)
3. Functional forms (the relationship between two)

MATHEMATICAL MODEL COMPONENTS

- Governing Equation (Darcy’s law + water balance equation) with head (h) as the dependent variable
- Boundary Conditions
- Initial conditions (for transient problems)

DARCY’S LAW
- If the soil did not have uniform properties, then we would have to use the continuous form of the
derivative: Q(x)= -K(x) A dH / dx
- Head is defined as the elevation to which ground water will rise in a cased well. Mathematically,
head (h) is expressed by the following equation where z = elevation head and P/pg = pressure head
(water table = 0).

TYPES OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

- Specified Head Boundaries
- Specified Flux Boundaries
- Head Dependant Flux Boundaries

SPECIFIED HEAD BOUNDARIES

- Boundaries along which the heads have been measured and can be specified in the model, e.g.,
surface water bodies
- They must be in good hydraulic connection with the aquifer
- Must influence heads throughout layer being modeled
- Large streams and lakes in unconfined aquifers with highly permeable beds
- Uniform Head Boundaries: Head is uniform in space, e.g., Lakes
- Spatially Varying Head Boundaries: e.g., River heads can be picked off of a topo map if there is
hydraulic connection with an unconfined aquifer and the streambed materials are more permeable
than the aquifer materials

SPECIFIED FLUX BOUNDARIES

- Boundaries along which, or cells within which, inflows or outflows are set
- Recharge due to infiltration (R)
- Pumping wells (Qp)
- Induced infiltration
- Underflow
- No flow boundaries: Valley wall of low permeable sediment or rock, Fault

NEED OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING

- Scientific understanding
- Clarification
- Manage the world using scientific understanding
- Simulated experimentation
- The curse of dimensionality

SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING
- A model embodies a hypothesis about the study system and lets you compare that hypothesis with
data.
- A model is often most useful when it fails to fit the data because that indicates some of your ideas
about the study system are wrong.
- Mathematical models and computer simulations are useful experimental tools for building and
testing theories, assessing quantitative conjectures, answering specific questions, determining
sensitivities to changes

CLARIFICATION
- The model formulation process clarifies assumptions, variables, and parameters
- The process of formulating an ecological model is extremely helpful for organizing one’s thinking,
bringing hidden assumptions to light, and identifying data needs

MANAGE THE REAL WORLD USING SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING

- Forecasting disease or pest outbreaks
- Designing man-made systems, for example, biological pest control, bioengineering
- Managing existing systems such as agriculture or fisheries
- Optimizing medical treatments

SIMULATED EXPERIMENTATION
- Realistic experimenting may be impossible
- Experiments with infectious disease spread in human populations are often impossible, unethical, or
expensive.
- We cannot manage endangered species by trial and error.
- We dare not set dosage for clinical trials of new drugs on humans or set safe limits for exposure to
toxic substances without proper knowledge of the consequences.
THE CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY
- Sometimes a purely experimental approach is not feasible because the data requirements for
estimating a model grow rapidly with the number of variables.
- Modeling using computer programs is cheap.

TYPES OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL

- Deterministic vs. Stochastic models
-

Static vs. Dynamic Models

- Continuous vs. Discrete Models
- Individual vs. Structured Models
- Mechanistic vs. Statistical Models
- Qualitative vs. Quantitative Models

QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM

- A descriptive representation of a groundwater system that incorporates an interpretation of the
geological & hydrological conditions.

FLOW NETS
- Limited to steady state, homogeneous systems, with simple boundary conditions

PHYSICAL MODEL
- System representation by “physical means” such as Electrical, mechanical, hydraulic, or other
physical representation of the system.
- For example, in a physical model of a system, if the system attributes can be represented by such
measurements as voltage, then the rate at which the shaft of a direct current motor turns depends upon
the voltage applied to the motor.

SAND TANK
- Which poses scaling problems, for example, the grains of a scaled-down sand tank model are on the
order of the size of a house in the system being simulated

SAND MODEL
- Calibration of model: Test of the model with known input and output information that is used to
adjust or estimate factors for which data are not available.
- Verification of the model: Examination of the numerical technique in the computer code to ascertain
that it truly represents the conceptual model and that there are no inherent numerical problems with
obtaining a solution.
- Validation: Comparison of model results with numerical data independently derived from
experiments or observations of the environment.

COMPUTATIONAL MODELLING
- Computational modeling is the use of mathematics, physics, and computer science to study the
behavior of complex systems by computer simulation. A computational model contains numerous
variables that characterize the system being studied. Simulation is done by adjusting these variables
and observing how the changes affect the outcomes predicted by the model. The results of model
simulations help researchers make predictions about what will happen in the real system that is being
studied in response to changing conditions.

SIMULATION
- Operation of a model of the system
- It is a tool to evaluate the performance of a system, existing or proposed, under different
configurations of interest and over long periods of real-time.
SIMULATION IS USED FOR…
1. For built a new system or to alter an existing system
2. To reduce the chances of failure to meet specifications
3. To eliminate unforeseen bottlenecks
4. To prevent under or over-utilization of resources
5. Optimize system performance

SIMULATION STUDY
- Steps involved in developing a simulation model:
1. Identify the problem
2. Formulate the problem
3. Collect and process real system data
4. Formulate and develop model
5. Validate the model
6. Document model for future use
7. Select appropriate experimental design
8. Establish experimental conditions for runs
9. Perform simulation runs
10. Interpret and present results
11. Recommend further course of action

- Identify the problem: Find out the problems with an existing system. Produce requirements for a
proposed system.
- Formulate the problem: Objective of the study or issues involved in the system.
- Collect and process real system data: Collect the data on system like input variables, performance of
the system, etc. identify the stochastic input variables.
- Formulate and develop a model: Develop schematics and network diagrams of the system. Translate
these conceptual models to simulation software acceptable form.
- Validate the model: Compare the performance of the model under known conditions with the
performance of the real system.
- Document objectives, assumptions, and input variables of model in detail for future use.

ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION
- It is useful for sensitivity analysis of complex systems.
- It is suitable to analyze large and complex real-life problems that cannot be solved by the usual
quantitative methods.
- It is the remaining tool when all other techniques become intractable or fail.
- It can be used as a pre-service test to try out new policies and decision rules for operating a system.

DISADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION
- Sometimes simulation models are expensive and take a long time to develop.
- Each application of simulation is ad hoc to a great extent.
- The simulation model does not produce answers by itself.
- It is the trial-and-error approach that produces different solutions in repeated runs. It does not
generate optimal solutions to the problems.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION
- In mathematical model all quantities are measured as parameters, so this model is a parametric
function.
- Inferring parameters from measurements is known as estimation.
- 2 types of estimation:
1. Parametric estimation where the quantities to be estimated are the unknown variables in equations
that express the observables.
 2. Condition estimation where conditions can be formulated among the observations. Rarely used,
most common application is leveling where the sum of the height differences around closed circuits
must be zero.

STEPS IN PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION

- Observation equations: Equations

that relate the parameters to be estimated to the observed quantities.

- Stochastic model: Statistical description that describes the random fluctuations in the measurements.
- Inversion that determines the parameters values from the mathematical model consistent with the
statistical model.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
- Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or
system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.
- A sensitivity analysis can be used to:
- Validate a model,
- Warn of unrealistic model behaviour,
- Point out important assumptions,
- Help formulate model structure,
- Simplify a model,
- Suggest new experiments,
- Guide future data collection efforts,
- Suggest accuracy for calculating parameters,
- Adjust numerical values of parameters,
- Choose an operating point,
- Allocate resources,
- Detect critical criteria,
- Suggest manufacturing tolerances,
- Identify cost drivers.

CONCEPTUAL MODELS
- Type of diagram which shows a set of relationships between factors that are believed to impact or
lead to a target condition; a diagram that defines theoretical entities, objects, or conditions of a system
and the relationships between them.
- A complete conceptual model provides a:
- Definition of the phenomenon in terms of features recognizable by observations, analysis, or
validated simulations.
- Description of its life cycle in terms of appearance, size, intensity, and accompanying weather.
- Statement of the controlling physical processes which enables the understanding of the factors that
determine the mode and rate of evolution of the phenomenon.
- Specification of the key meteorological fields demonstrating the main processes.
- Guidance for predicted meteorological conditions or situations using the diagnostic and prognostic
fields that best discriminate between development or non-development; guidance for predicting
displacement and evolution.

ADVANTAGES OF CONCEPTUAL MODEL

- When introducing a new topic in class regardless of whether the ultimate goal is to develop the topic
qualitatively or quantitatively.
- When equations for some process being studied seem to obscure student understanding it is a good
idea to step back a bit and discuss a conceptual model of the processes. Actually, it is typically best to
develop a conceptual framework for understanding before introducing equations.
- To help explain and discuss interesting features in data sets.