PROBABILITY AND THE COUNTING PRINCIPLE

Probability is all about calculating, estimating or predicting what might happen in the future.
A measure of the likelihood of something to occur.

Some basic terms which are often used when dealing with Probability:
1. Event: is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment. Favourable outcome
or an outcome of interest.
2. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
3. Inclusive events: two or more events which have a common outcome or an
intersection.
4. Mutually exclusive: two or more events that do not have a common outcome or an
intersection.
5. Complementary events: two or more events which are mutually exclusive and
contain all the elements in the sample space.
6. Independent events: Two successive events in which the outcomes of the first event
do not affect/influence the outcomes of the second.
7. Dependent Events: outcomes of the first event have an influence on the outcomes of
the second event.
8. The union of events: The union of two events, event A and event B, is the event
consisting of all outcomes that are in at least one of these events. The union consists
of outcomes that are either in A, or in B, or in both.
9. The formula for the probability of an event:

{REVISION OF GRADE 10 WORK: EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES}

Some activities and examples to help for better understanding.

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 Activity 1
In a soccer match between two teams the possible outcome is Win(W), Lose(L) or
Draw(D). Fill in the probability fractions on

{REVISION OF GRADE 11 WORK: EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES}

Example 2

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Activity 2

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{REVISION OF GRADE 10 WORK: EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES}
PROBABILITY QUESTIONS USING VENN DIAGRAMS

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 Activities around the application of the Laws.
Example 1.

Activity 1

Activity 2
1. A and B are mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = 0,6 and P(B) = 0,3
.Determine P(A and B) and P(A or B) .
2. The events C and D are mutually exclusive with P(not C) = 0,3 and P(C or D) =
0,8. Determine P(D) .

{REVISION OF GRADE 11 WORK: EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES}

INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS.

Example 1.

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 Solution:

Example 2.

Activity 1

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 Activity 2

DEPENDENT EVENTS
Two successive events are said to be dependent if the outcomes of the first event
do have an influence on the outcomes of the second event.
Example 1

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 Example 2

Activity 1
A bag contains 6 blue, 5 red and 9 white marbles. A marble is drawn and not
replaced, and another marble is then drawn. Draw a tree diagram to represent
this information, and use it to answer the questions.
a. Explain why drawing a second blue marble is not independent on drawing a blue
marble first.
b. What are the probabilities that:
i. both marbles are white
ii. both marbles are blue
iii. one blue and one red marble is chosen
iv. neither of the marbles chosen is red?

Activity 2.

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Venn diagrams
Example 1

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Example 2 (venn diagram with 2 events)

Activity 1

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Example 3 (venn diagram with 3 events)

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 Activity 2

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 Using tree diagrams to solve problems for events not necessarily
independent
Consider the following tree diagram which represents the event of throwing a die and tossing
a coin:

• Notice that we write the probability of each ‘branch’ alongside that branch.
• This representation helps us decide which values we multiply and which values we
add. We always multiply probabilities along the branches.
• If there is more than one set of branches that we can follow to achieve the result, add
the final answers for each pathway.
• So, in the example, if we want the probability of getting a prime number and tossing a
head, we follow the pathways: 2 then H; or 3 then H; or 5 then H.
• It is also useful to remember that the events at the ends of the branches are mutually
exclusive and exhaustive. Therefore the sum of the probabilities of each branch will
equal 1.
NB: some of the tree diagram problems are covered in previous activities.

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 CONTINGENCY TABLES
A contingency table shows a count or number of observations grouped by
specific characteristics.
Example 1:

Calculate the probability that a member selected at random from the

sample of 370 members:
1. Uses the gym regularly.
2. Uses the gym regularly given that the member is a woman.
3. Doesn’t use the gym regularly given that the member is a man.

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 Activity 1

NOTE:
✓ some questions will require that we start by adding totals first
✓ some will require us to start by filling in the missing numbers from
information given.

Impendence, dependence and contingency tables.

Consider the following example:

A group of people were asked whether they had watched Gcina Mhlope’s plays
or whether they had listened to her story-telling. Based on the results of the
survey, the contingency table was drawn up showing the probabilities of these
events.
Watched plays Not watched plays Total
Heard stories 0,6
Not heard stories 0,26
Total 0,35

1. Copy and complete the table.

2. Show that watching her plays and hearing her story-telling are
independent events.

NB: remind learners of the Product identity for probability. Given events A and
B are independent then P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

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Solution:
1.
Watched plays Not watched plays Total
Heard stories 0,21 0,39 0,6
Not heard stories 0,14 0,26 0,4
Total 0,35 0,65 1
2. P(Plays and Stories) = 0,21
P(Plays) × P(Stories) = 0,35 × 0,6 = 0,21
P(Plays and Stories) = P(Plays) × P(Stories)
Therefore watching the plays and hearing the stories are independent
events.
Activity 2:

Activity 3

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 {GRADE 12 WORK: EXAMPLES AND EXERCISES}

The use of fundamental counting principle to solve probability problems.

NB: Learners MUST have an extensive knowledge and understanding of tree
diagrams in order for the Counting Principle to make more sense.

Now looking at the tree diagram we had on page 16. Where we flip a coin and then
roll a die. There are 12 possible outcomes in this situation:

Now if we consider the total number of outcomes, we have:

For the coin there are only two possible outcomes, whereas for the die, there are six possible
outcomes. Therefore we can state that there are a total of 2×6=12 total possible outcomes.

Example 1:
A meal can be made up as follows:
Choice 1: meat, fish or chicken (3 choices).
Choice 2: mash, chips, baked potato, rice or vegetables (5 choices).
How many different meals can be made using these choices?

Solution
There are 3 possible choices in Choice 1 followed by 5 possible choices in Choice
2. There are therefore 15 possible meals that can be made:

NOTE: we did not need to draw tree diagrams this time.

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Note that in this example our focus was just the number of choices we had in each event.
This is actually the Fundamental counting principle.

Fundamental counting principle

It states that if one operation can be done in m ways and a second operation
can be done in n ways then the total possible number of different ways in
which both operations can be done is m×n.

Activity 1 (application of counting principle)

Example 3:(applying counting principle in other situations)

Consider the word MAN. How many different three letter word
arrangements can be created using letters of word MAN?

Solution: 321= 6

NOTE:
3: refers to number of choices we have when we choose the first
letter
2: refers to the number of choices we have when we choose second
letter.
1: number of choices we have when we choose last/third letter

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 Example 4:
Consider the word PARKTOWN. You are required to form different
eight-letter word arrangements using the letters of the word
PARKTOWN. An example of a word arrangement would be the
word APKROTWN. This arrangement of the letters need not make
any sense. How many possible different word arrangements can be
created using that word PARKTOWN:

Solution: 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 = 40 320.

In others words this refers to concept of Factorial:

NB: choosing without repeating anything: (8! = 40 320)

Consider word PARKTOWN again. Now how many letters can be

created if letters are repeated?

Solution: 88888888= 16 777 216.

NOTE: We always have 3 choices when we choose ever letter.

Activity 2

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 Example:
Consider the case where we are given the word FLORIDA, but
requested to create 4 letter words without repeating letters but
choosing from the 6 letters.

First letter : 7 choices

Second letter : 6 choices
Third letter : 5 choices
Fourth letter : 4 choices

Then we can have 7654= 840 words shall be created

7!
On the other hand we can say (7−4)!= 840 wods

Alternatively one can use the permutation formula:

Where n refers to Total number of Choices we have and r refers to number of ways those
choice are taken. So from previous example with FLORIDA word having 7(n=7) letters we
needed to create 4 letter words (r = 4). One could write: 7P4 = 840.

Consider word FLORIDA again. How many 4 letter words can we create if the letters are
repeated?
First letter: 7 choices
Second letter: 7 choices (NOTE: we can repeat letters)
Third letter: 7 choices
Fourth letter: 7 choices
Therefore: 7777 = 74
= 2401 words

In conclusion we can say: When repetitions are allowed in a permutation, the number of
ways of arranging r (r=4) items from a choice of n (n=7) items will be nr.

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 Example 2

Given the following numbers: 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

1. How many four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits with no repetitions?
2. How many of these numbers would:
a. be even
b. have a value greater than 6 000
c. be even and have a value greater than 6 000?

Solution:
7!
1. We could use
(7−4)!
= 840. Or we could key in: 7; nPr; 4 = and get the same
answer.
2.
a. For the number to be even, it would have to end with a 2, 4, or 6. So, the last digit
will be a choice of 3, with the other digits then being a choice of 6, 5, 4. Thus the
total number of possibilities would be: 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 = 360.
b. To have a value greater than 6 000, the first digit would have to be either 7 or 6.
Thus the total possibilities would be: 2 × 6 × 5 × 4 = 240.
c. The first digit must be either 7 or 6, and the last digit must be even. Because 6 is
an even number we consider the two options for the first digit separately, as this
choice will make a difference to how many even numbers we could choose for the
last digit.

If the first digit is a 7, the possibilities will be: 1 × 5 × 4 × 3 = 60

If the first digit is a 6, the possibilities will be: 1 × 5 × 4 × 2 = 40
So the total number of possibilities will be 60 + 40 = 100

Activity 3

How many different five-digit codes can we form using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7, 8 and 9, if:
a. the digits can be used in any order and can be repeated
b. there must be no repeated digits
c. the code must not start with 0, but can have repeated digits
d. the code must not start with 0, and must not have any repeated digits
e. the code must start with 1, and can have repeated digits
f. the code must start with 9 and end with 0, and must not have any repeated
digits
g. the code must start with two 5s, and although repeated digits are allowed,
there must not be another 5
h. the code must start with 9, then 8, and there must not be any repeated digits in
the code
i. the code must end with the same number that it started with, and there must be
no other repeated digits
j. the code must end with the same number that it started with, and digits can be
repeated.

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 Example 3

Solution:

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 Activity 4
How many ways can Greta, Mavis, Ava, Gertrude, Desmond, Yaseen and Basil sit in a row,
so that:
a. There are no restrictions on who must sit where.
b. Greta and Mavis have to sit together.
c. The girls must sit together and the boys must sit together.
d. Only the girls have to sit together.

LETTER ARRANGEMENTS WHERE LETTERS ARE REPEATED

EXAMPLE 4
Consider the letters of the word DAD.

a. How many word arrangements can be made with this word if the repeated letters are
treated as different letters?
b. How many word arrangements can be made with this word if the repeated letters are
treated as identical?

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 In conclusion we can say:

Example 5 applies the conclusion more precisely

Solution:

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Example 6:

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 Solution.

Activity 5

Activity 2

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 COUNTING PRINCIPLE INVOLVING PROBABILITY
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Probability of an event to occur is given by 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

Example 1

Solution:

Example 2

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A code is chosen by using 3 letters of the alphabet followed by 5 digits. The letters and digits
can be repeated. Determine the probability that the code chosen:
a. has only one 7 in it
b. has at least one A in it
c. starts with an A and ends with a 9.

Solution .
a. The total number of ways of creating a code which has 3 letters and 5 digits with
repetitions will be 263 × 105 . If we want a code with only one 7: The 3 letters in the
code can be any of 26 letters. These can be repeated, so there will be 2 6 3
possibilities for the 3 letters. The 5 digits must have one 7, so the remaining 4 digits
can be arranged in 9 4 ways. But the 7 can be in any of the 5 positions.
Therefore, the probability that the code chosen has only one 7 in it is
263 ×94 ×5
= 0,32805
263 ×105

b. For the code to have at least one A (it could have one, two or three As), it is easiest to
remember that P(A) = 1 – P( A ). So, the probability that there is at least one A = 1 –
253 ×105 1951
the probability that there is no A= 1 − 263×105 = 17576
c. If the code must start and end with a specific letter or digit, there is no choice for
those positions.
The number of possibilities for the remaining positions is 262 × 104 , so the
262 ×104 1
probability of this happening is = 260
263 ×105

Example 3

Hong-lee considers the dinner menu at a restaurant. The menu consists of a choice
from two starters, three different main courses, and three desserts, one of which is
malva pudding. Assuming that he is equally likely to choose any option, what is the
probability that he will have malva pudding with his meal?

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 Activity 1

Activity 2

Activity 3

Activity 4

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Some additional questions from previous question papers

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Gr 12 Mpumalanga Trial Exam Sep 2020 P1 Eng

FREE-STATE-Gr-12-SEPT-2020-P1

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MATHs-SEPT-2020-GRADE-12-P1 KZN

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Gr 12 NW Trail Exam Sep 2020 P1

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