Introduction To Project Management
Introduction To Project Management
Project Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) is intended to measure the progress and success of a
project according to agreed indicators. They may be quantitative or qualitative values which
describe reality and indicate degree of change. Ideally, these indicators will be measured at the
beginning of the project, during the project, at the end of the project, and perhaps several years later.
Documenting conditions at the beginning of the project is important because it provides a picture
of the status quo or a baseline from which to measure progress. While the need for M&E is general
to all projects, the specific tools - indicators, data collection procedures, analytical methods, etc. -
applied must be adapted to the specific local conditions and to the needs of stakeholders.
Although the term “monitoring and evaluation” tends to get run together as if it is only one thing,
monitoring and evaluation are, in fact, two distinct sets of organisational activities, related but not
identical.
The main differences between monitoring and evaluation are the timing and frequency of
observations and the types of questions asked. However, when monitoring and evaluation are
integrated as a project management tool, the line between the two becomes rather blurred.
Purpose of Monitoring and Evaluation
• To assess project results: To find out if and how objectives are being met and are resulting
in desired changes.
• To improve project management and process planning: To better adapt to contextual and
risk factors such as social and power dynamics that affect the research process.
• To promote learning: to identify lessons of general applicability, To learn how different
approaches to participation affect outcomes, impact, and reach, to learn what works and
what does not, and to identify what contextual factors enable or constrain the participatory
research.
• To understand different stakeholders' perspectives: To allow, through direct participation
in the monitoring and evaluation process, the various people involved in a project to better
understand each other’s views and values and to design ways to resolve competing or
conflicting views and interests.
• To ensure accountability: To assess whether the project is effectively, appropriately, and
efficiently executed to be accountable to they key agencies supporting the work.
What to Monitor and Evaluate?
• Outputs describe the concrete and tangible products of the project as well as the occurrence
of the project activities themselves.
• Processes describe the methods and approaches used for the project.
• Outcomes describe the changes that occur within the community or with the project
managers that can be attributed, at least in part, to the project process and outputs.
• Impact describes overall changes that occur in the community to which the project is one
of many contributing factors. One such impact often expected from project is positive
transformation of the community.
Reach describes who is influenced by the project and who acts because of this influence.
Efficiency, Effectiveness and Relevance
❖ Efficiency refers to the amount of time and resources put into the project relative to the
outputs and outcomes. A project evaluation may be designed to find out if there was a less
expensive, more appropriate, less time-consuming approach for reaching the same
objectives. (getting more output from minimum input – do less & accomplish more)
❖ Effectiveness describes whether or not the process was useful in reaching project goals and
objectives, or resulted in positive outcomes.
❖ Relevance or appropriateness describes the usefulness, ethics, and flexibility of a project
within the particular context
❖ Combined, these criteria enable judgment about whether the outputs and outcomes of the
project are worth the costs of the inputs. Effectiveness, efficiency and appropriateness can
be considered for the different methods, tools and approaches rather than questioning the
value of the research approach as a whole.
Steps in Monitoring:
• Identifying the different units involved in planning & implementation
• Identifying items on which feedback is required.
• Developing proforma for reporting.
• Determining the periodicity of reporting.
• Fixing the responsibility of reporting at different levels.
• Processing and analyzing the reports.
• Identifying the critical / unreliable areas in implementation.
• Providing feedback to corrective measures.
Monitoring tools and techniques
• First-hand information.
• Formal reports
• Project status report
• Project schedule chart
• Project financial status Report
• Informal Reports
• Graphic presentations
• Field visit
• Spot-check visit
• Observations
• Participants meetings
• Stakeholder meetings
Project Evaluation
Evaluation is the comparison of actual project impacts against the agreed strategic plans. It looks at
what you set out to do, at what you have accomplished, and how you accomplished it. Evaluation
seeks to measure project effects, i.e., whether and to what extent the project’s inputs and services
are improving the quality of people’s lives. As with project monitoring, however, evaluations may
also reveal unexpected findings, both positive and negative, which can be used to alter and improve
project design and implementation.
Evaluation involves:
• Looking at what the project or organisation intended to achieve – what difference did it want
to make? What impact did it want to make?
• Assessing its progress towards what it wanted to achieve, its impact targets.
• Looking at the strategy of the project or organisation. Did it have a strategy? Was it effective
in following its strategy? Did the strategy work? If not, why not?
• Looking at how it worked. Was there an efficient use of resources? What were the
opportunity costs of the way it chose to work? How sustainable is the way in which the
project or organisation works? What are the implications for the various stakeholders in the
way the organisation works.
Purpose of Evaluation
From an accountability perspective:
The purpose of evaluation is to make the best possible use of resources by the project
managers who are accountable for the worth of their projects.
Measuring accomplishment in order to avoid weaknesses and future mistakes.
-Observing the efficiency of the techniques and skills employed
-Scope for modification and improvement.
-Verifying whether the benefits reached the people for whom the project was meant.
From a knowledge perspective:
• The purpose of evaluation is to establish new knowledge about social problems and the
effectiveness of policies and programs designed to alleviate them.
• Understanding people’s participation & reasons for the same.
• Evaluation helps to make plans for future
Types of Evaluation
Evaluation can be characterized as being either formative or summative. Broadly (and this is not a
rule), formative evaluation looks at what leads to the (the process), whereas summative evaluation
looks at the short-term to long-term outcomes of a project.
Formative evaluation takes place in the lead up to the project, as well as during the project in order
to improve the project design as it is being implemented (continual improvement). Formative
evaluation often lends itself to qualitative methods of inquiry with the intention of improving the
strategy or way of functioning of the project.
Summative evaluation takes place during and following the project completion, and is associated
with more objective, quantitative methods. It draws learning from a completed project. Someone
once described this as the difference between a check-up and an autopsy!
It assesses whether the project has met its goals, whether there were any unintended consequences,
what were the learnings, and how to improve.
Goal-based Assessing achievement of Were the goals achieved? Comparing baseline and
goals and objectives. Efficiently? Were they the progress data; finding ways to
right goals? measure indicators
Goal-free Assessing the full range of What are all the outcomes? Independent determination of
project effects, intended What value do they have? needs and standards to judge
and unintended. project worth.
Qualitative and quantitative
techniques to uncover any
possible results.
Expert judgement Use of expertise. How does an outside Critical review based on
professional rate this project? experience, informal
surveying, and subjective
insights.
Evaluation
Techniques
Non-
Discounting
discounting
Criteria
criteria
Net Present Benefit Cost Internal Rate Profitability Accounting
Payback Period
Value Ratio of Return Index Rate of Return
NPV = ∑ Xi
(1+r)n
Xi …. Xn = represents cash flows
r = represents the firm’s cost of capital or interest rate
c = represents cost of investment proposal
n = represents expected life of the project or investment
Example 21.1: assume that project X cost ₦2,500 now and is expected to generate year-end cash
inflow of ₦900, ₦800, ₦600, ₦500, in year 1 through 5. The opportunity cost may be assumed to
be 10%
The net present value for project X can be calculated by referring to the value
Project X’s present value of cash inflows (₦2,725) is greater than that of cash outflow (₦2,500).
Thus, it generates a positive net present value (NPV = ₦225). Projects X adds to the wealth of
owners; therefore, it should be accepted.
Example 21.2: Calculate the NPV for project X which initially cost ₦5000 and generates years
and cash inflows of ₦1,800, ₦1,600, ₦1,400, ₦1,200 and ₦1,000 for a period of five years. The
required rate of return is assumed to be 10%.
Solution
Table 21.1
Year CF(N) DCF@10% Present value
(1 – r)-n (PV) (₦)
0 (5,000) 1.000 (5,000)
1 1,800 0.9091 1638
2 1600 0.8264 1322
3 1400 0.7570 1052
4 1200 0.6830 820
5 1000 0.6309 643
The NPV of ₦453 can be interpreted to mean the amount the firm can rate at the required of interest
(10%), to distribute immediately to its shareholders and by the end of the projects life to have paid
off all the capital raised plus interest on it (Bierman, 1980).
A positive NPV represents the amount by which the shareholders’ wealth shall be increased if the
project is undertaken. The NPV represents an unutilized capital gain that becomes realized when
project is undertaken. Unlike other techniques, the NPV considers various factors such as risk,
inflation, etc., when computing it.
Acceptance/Decision rule NPV
It should be clear that the acceptance rule using the NPV method is to accept the investment or
project if its net present value is positive (NPV > 0) and to reject it, if the net present value is
negative (NPV<0). The positive net present value will result only if the project generates cash
inflows at a rate higher than the opportunity cost of capital. A project may be accepted if NPV =
0. A zero NPV implies that investment or project generate cash flow at a rate just equal to the
opportunity cost of capital. Thus, the NPV acceptance rules are:
i. Accept if NPV > 0
ii. Reject if NPV< 0
iii. May accept if NPV = 0.
Merit of NPV method
i. It recognizes the time value of money
ii. It considers all the cash flows over the entire life of the investment to arrive at NPV.
iii. It is consistent with the objectives of maximizing the wealth of the shareholder or owners.
iv. It is claimed for the investment that the ranking of investment is independent of the discount
rate chosen for the analysis.
Limitation of the NPV method
i. It is difficult to use and there may be a need to use costly and sophisticated computers for
appraisal of complex investment using NPV method.
ii. The calculation of NPV assumes that the discount rate is known. But the discount rate, i.e. cost
of capital is quite a difficult concept to understand and measure in practice.
iii. It may not give an optimal result when the investment being compared involved different
amount of investment.
iv. It may mislead when dealing with alternative investments or limited funds under the condition
of equal lives
2. Profitability Index (PI):
This is another time adjusted method of evaluating the investment proposal is the benefit cost
(B/C) ratio or profitability Index (PI). It is the ratio of the present value of cash flows, at the
required rate of return, to the initial cash outflow of the investment. It may be gross or net; net
being simply gross minus one. The formula to calculate benefit-cost ratio or profitability index is
as follows:
Example 21.3: The initial cash outlay of investment is ₦100,000 and it can generate cash inflow
of ₦40,000, ₦30,000, ₦50,000and ₦20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10% rate of discount.
The PV of cash inflows at 10 percent discount rate is:
Solution
PV=40,000(PVF1.10)-1+30.000(PVF1.10)-2+50,000(PVF1.10)-3+ 20,000(PVF1.10)-4
PV = (40,000x0.909) + (30,000 x 0.86) + (50,000 x 0.75) + (20,000 x 0.68)
PV = ₦112,350 – 100,000 = ₦12,350
PI = ₦112,350 = 1.1235
N100,B000
Using table method
Table 21.2
Year Cash inflows (₦) DCF @ 10% PV (₦)
(1–r)-n
1 40,000 0.9091 36.360
2 30,000 0.8260 24780
3 50,000 .07513 37,550
4 20,000 0.6830 13,660
Total 112,350
PI = NPV
outlay
PI = ₦112,350 = 1.1235
₦100,000
Gross = ₦ 1, 1235
PI (Net) = 1.1235 – 1.0 = 0.1235
DECISION
Accept PI > 1
Reject PI < 1
May accept PI = 1
When the PI > 1, then the investment will have positive NPV.
Evaluation of Profitability Index
i. PI is a conceptually sound method of project/investment appraisal.
ii. PI gives due consideration to time value of money.
iii. It can be used to choose between mutually exclusives projects by calculating the increments
B/C ratio.
3. Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
This is also known as the Hurdle Rate/Cut-off rate/Target rate/DCF yield/Break Even Rate/Cost
of capital and the Marginal Efficiency of capital.
IRR method is another discounted cash flow technique which takes account of the magnitude and
timing of cash flows.
This is the rate that equates the NPV of inflows to zero. The concept of internal rate of return is
quite simple to understand in the case of a one-period project.
It can be calculated using a two-step approach;
1. Trial and error
2. Interpolation using the formula
Where,
LR = Lower Rate
HR = Higher Rate
NPVLR = NPV of lower rate
NPVHR = NPV of high rate
Example 21.4: Gate of knowledge consult is considering whether to undertake a project whose
initial outlay is ₦20,000, and is expected to generate cash inflows of ₦10,000, ₦4,000 and
₦16,000 for three consecutive years. If the hurdle rate is 10%. Find the IRR of the project.
Solution
Table 21.3
Year CF DCF@ 10% PV DCF@ 25% PV
(1+r)-n (1+r)-n
0 (20,000) 1.000 (20,000) 1.000 (20,000)
1 10,000 0.9091 9,092 0.8000 8,000
2 4,000 0.8264 3,306 0.64 2,560
3 16,000 0.7513 12,020 0.512 8,192
NPV 4,418 (1,248)
Interpolation:
IRR = LR + NPV(LR) (HR – LR)
NPVLR + NPVHR
IRR = 10% + 4,418 (25 - 10) %
1,248 + 4,418
Interpretation of IRR
The interpretation of IRR may be interpreted as the highest rate of interest a firm would be ready
to pay on the funds borrowed to finance the project, without being financially worse off, by
repaying the loan, i.e., principal + interest, out of each inflows generated by the project, thus, in
the above example, if the firm is able to borrow from a bank at 15% rate of interest to finance the
project, it would be able to pay off the principal and interest on the above loan using the cash flows
generated by the project and break-even on the transaction. This is substantiated by the following
computation.
Merits of IRR
i. It considers time value of money
ii. It considers cash flows over the entire life of the project
iii. The IRR suggests the maximum rate of return and gives a fairly good idea regarding the
profitability of the project, even in the absence of the firm’s cost of capita
iv. It satisfies the users in terms of the rate of return on capital
v. It is compatible with the firm’s owners’ welfare.
Demerits of IRR
i. It is difficult to understand because of its complexity
ii. It implies that the intermediate cash flows generated by the project are reinvested at the IRR of
the project
iii. It may not give unique answer in all situations. It may yield negative or multiple rates under
certain circumstances.
iv. Its results differ in the expected duration or magnitude of cash outlays or timings of cash flows.
Solution
Simple inspection shows that both projects have identical cash flow pattern up to year 3 of the
project. But project B still has cash inflows in year 4 and 5, which project A lacks, have terminated
in year 3. So, project B is superior to project A using the ranking by inspection criterion.
Merit of Ranking by Inspection
i. It is easy to use ranking the order of preferences of two/more projects
ii. It is simple to use and understand.
Demerit of Ranking by Inspection
i. Choosing a project by cursory inspection of flows could be to execution of unviable projects
since time value of money is not taken into consideration.
ii. It can only be used in situations where cursory inspection would reveal differences in cash flow
patterns.
2. Payback Period (PBP)
The payback period is defined as the number of years required to recover the original cash outlays
invested in a project or investment. It can also be defined as the length of time required for the
stream of cash flow generated by an investment to equal original cash outlay required by the
investment. If project generates constant annual cash flows, the payback period can be computed
by dividing the cash outlay by the annual cash flows.
This is calculated using the formula:
Payback period = cash outlay (investment) = Co
Annual cash flow Cf
Example 21.6: Assume that a project required an outlay of ₦50,000 and yields an annual cash of
₦12,500 for 7 years. The payback period for the project is
Solution
PB = ₦50,000 = 4 years
₦12,500
The project will take 4 years to recover the original cash outlay invested in it. There are cases
where the cash flows are unequal/irregular. This is solved by adding up cash inflows until is equal
to the initial outlay.
Example 21.7: Calculate the payback period for a project which requires a cash outlay of ₦20,000
and cash inflows of ₦8,000, ₦4,000, ₦3,000, ₦2,500, ₦2,000 and ₦3,000
Solution
Table 21.5
Year Cash flow (₦) Balance (₦)
0 (20,000) (20,000)
1 8,000 (12,000)
2 4,000 (8,000)
3 3,000 (5,000)
4 2,500 (2,5000)
5 2000 (500)
6 3,000
Example 21.8: A firm is to undertake a project having a 5 years life-span. The sum of ₦1million
is to the project and the estimated NPV after the project life is ₦200,000 profits before depreciation
over the 5 years life span are stated below:
Table 21.6
Year ₦
1 360,000
2 420,000
3 510,000
4 530,000
5 600,000
= ₦324,000
₦600,000
= 54%
Example 21.9: Oladewah Nig Ltd, is considering between two projects A and B that have the
following information available.
Table 21.7
Project A Project B
Cost of project ₦200,000 ₦300,000
Life of project 4 years 4 years
Residual value ₦10,000 ₦30,000
Estimated future profits before depreciation and tax
Table 21.8
Year 1 ₦70,000 ₦86,000
Year 2 ₦10,000 ₦104,000
Year 3 ₦120,000 ₦120,000
Year 4 ₦120,000 ₦160,000
Assuming a straight-line depreciation, a tax rate of 35% and company’s target rate of return of
20% which of the projects should be company select?
Solution
Table 21.9
Project A project B
1. Annual depreciation ₦200,000 - ₦10,000 ₦300.000 - ₦30,000
4 years = ₦190,000 = ₦270,000
= ₦190,000 ÷ 4 = ₦270,000 ÷ 4
= ₦47,500 = ₦67,500
Total profits before depreciation and tax.
Table 21.10
Total profit ₦410,000 ₦464,000
Depreciation (₦47,500) (₦67,500)
₦362,500 ₦396,500
Tax @ 35% ₦126,875 ₦138,775
Profits after depr. & ₦235,625 ₦257,725
tax/Ap
Average profit (÷4) 58,906.25 64,431.25
Average investment (₦200 + ₦10) ÷2 (₦300 + ₦30) ÷ 2
(‘0000)
= ₦105,000 = ₦165,000
Project finance
Project finance is an approach to funding major projects through a group of investment partners,
who are repaid based on the cash flow generated by the project. The investors in a project finance
arrangement are known as sponsors, and often include financial institutions with a high tolerance
for risk. Sponsors may also include organizations in the same industry, a contractor interested in
the project, and government or other public entities.
Project finance is most often used to fund large-scale industrial or infrastructure projects that
involve a construction phase, such as building a transportation system addition or a power
generation facility. Projects like these require significant upfront capital, and they do not generate
a return until the construction phase is complete. They are also relatively high risk, as unforeseen
problems during the construction phase can lead to project failure. Project finance is a good fit for
initiatives like these because it provides access to a significant amount of cash to cover initial
expenses.
Pre-Financing Stage:
▪ Identification of the Project Plan - This process includes identifying the strategic plan of
the project and analyzing whether its plausible or not. In order to ensure that the project
plan is in line with the goals of the financial services company, it is crucial for the lender
to perform this step.
▪ Recognizing and Minimizing the Risk - Risk management is one of the key steps that
should be focused on before the project financing venture begins. Before investing, the
lender has every right to check if the project has enough available resources to avoid any
future risks.
▪ Checking Project Feasibility - Before a lender decides to invest on a project, it is
important to check if the concerned project is financially and technically feasible by
analyzing all the associated factors.
Financing Stage
Being the most crucial part of Project Financing, this step is further sub-categorized into the
following:
▪ Arrangement of Finances - In order to take care of the finances related to the project, the
sponsor needs to acquire equity or loan from a financial services organisation whose goals
are aligned to that of the project
▪ Loan or Equity Negotiation - During this step, the borrower and lender negotiate the loan
amount and come to a unanimous decision regarding the same.
▪ Documentation and Verification - In this step, the terms of the loan are mutually decided
and documented keeping the policies of the project in mind.
▪ Payment - Once the loan documentation is done, the borrower receives the funds as agreed
previously to carry out the operations of the project.
Post-Financing Stage
▪ Timely Project Monitoring - As the project commences, it is the job of the project
manager to monitor the project at regular intervals.
▪ Project Closure - This step signifies the end of the project.
▪ Loan Repayment - After the project has ended, it is imperative to keep track of the cash
flow from its operations as these funds will be, then, utilized to repay the loan taken to
finance the project.