ISSN: 0973-4929, Vol. 17, No. (2) 2022, Pg.

435-446

Current World Environment

www.cwejournal.org

Analysis of Rainfall Trends Over Assam, North East India

KAKOLI GOGOI1* and K. NAGESWARA RAO2

1
Discipline of Geology, School of Sciences, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi.
2
Discipline of Geography, School of Sciences, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi.

Abstract
The spatio-temporal variations of long-term rainfall over Assam in the North
Eastern part of India were analyzed using data from twenty-six locations during
the period 1981-2017. The annual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall trends are Article History
assessed by using Mann-Kendall and Sen slopetests over different subregions. Received: 19 April 2022
Accepted: 27 August 2022
September, December, January and February months recorded decreasing
trends, while May, June, and August exhibited statistically substantial increasing Keywords
trends. Similarly, annual, pre monsoon season and monsoon seasons exhibited Assam; Mann Kendall;
increasing trends, but post monsoon and winter seasons recorded statistically North East India;
Rainfall Trend;
non-significant decreasing rainfall trends. The locations of Demaji, Dibrugarh,
Sen’s Slope.
Karimganj, and North Lakhimpur were recorded with above 2000 mm annual
rainfall. On seasonal time scales, premonsoon and monsoon rainfall over
Assam witnessed increasing trends with statistically notable trends. The
postmonsoon and winter rainfall recorded decreasing trends, but the trends
were statistically non-significant. In the monsoon season, a declining trend was
recorded during the first decade (2001-2010).The southern and northeastern
portion of the state received the maximum average annual rainfall when
compared to the central portion of the Brahmaputra valley of Assam state. The
maximum variationsin rainfall have been recorded in the Karimganj (36.8%),
Hailakandi (31.9%), Silchar (31.9%), and Dhuburi (26.5%) regions. Any slight
variations in the rainfall trend could certainly be vulnerable as the state of
Assam which comprises valley flood plains and sub-Himalayan boundaries,
also supports a large chunk of human as well as ecosystem populations.
In the present scenario, extreme and unprecedented rainfall events can
affect agricultural activities, stream flow, the availability of food, etc.,
which may lead to disparities in the socio-economic conditions of the area.
The results would be beneficial to policy makers in understanding the impact
of changing climates and assessing the climatic vulnerability of natural and
human resources.

CONTACT Kakoli Gogoi [email protected] School of Sciences, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delh.

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Enviro Research Publishers.

This is an Open Access article licensed under a Creative Commons license: Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY).
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CWE.17.2.15
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 436

Introduction help of modeling techniques.9 The study of patterns

Agricultural activities mainly depend on the and trends in climatic variables like precipitation
availability of water resources and soil productivity and temperature isnecessary for climate change
that support the livelihood and economy of the predictions. The researchers used historical and
rural population of India. Changes in rainfall and longtime series to studythe spatiotemporal variation
temperature affect the socio-economic development of rainfall and temperature in arid and semi-arid
of the natural environment by creating drought and drought prone regions,10-11 hilly and mountainous
flood-like conditions resulting in biodiversity loss lands,12-13 coastal and urban areas,14-15 and river
as well as human lives. Climate studies require basins16-18 around the globe. Mean annual rainfall
urgent and systematic attention, thus,this related variations and extreme rainfall events are recorded
research has gained importance around the world in the west and NE parts of India, mainly due to local
in order to understand the changing patterns of orography. Deepak et al. (2012) recorded a notable
regional climates as they affect crop patterns and change in long-time rainfall and in monsoon and
productivity, as well as the economy.1-2 Climatic postmonsoon seasons in Assam.19
variables, particularly rainfall and temperature,
can influence the water resources, which include Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends on ayearly,
the pattern of stream flow, groundwater reserves, monthly, and seasonal basis is important in planning
and lakes/ponds/tanks of the concerned region.3 and developing water resources, agricultural
Extreme rainfall events can create devastating production, and climate change mitigation measures.
floods, which are common in several parts of But it needs well-distributed hydro-meteorological
India. In recent years, many parts of the country stations for collecting data. In the case of non-
received heavy to extreme rainfall (70 mm/day to availability and missing rainfall data, the long-term
about 120 mm/day) during the summer monsoon satellite-based datasets can be used to estimate
but maintained nearly the same average monsoon rainfall and get better results.20 Namita and Soham,
rainfall in total.4-5 (2022)21 observed a declining trend in monsoonal and
annual rainfall since the 1950s over Sikkim, NE India.
Climatic studies at a regional scale are recognized In Assam, it was expected to rise the temperature by
as vital because changing climates influence the +1.7 to 2.2°C and increase of extreme rainfall events
distribution of natural resources, including flora and nearly to 40% as per the observation of the climate
fauna.The northeastern part of Indiais comprised action plan of Assam state.22 Begum et al.(2022)23
of rich biodiversity, forest wealth, and good analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of rainfall over
agricultural production. A large number of indigenous Assam and noted a non-significant decreasing trend
tribal people depend on various natural resources during the monsoon season in various locations
for their livelihood. Changing climates can impact the across the state.
distribution and availability of resources, resulting
in nutrition and food insecurity in these biologically It is learned that the study of rainfall characteristics
diverse areas. IPCC6 observed that climate change in a particular region is essential for assessing the
will disturb agriculture production, flood and drought, consequences of changing climates. As suggested
groundwater depletion and water scarcity, etc. Global by IPCC, 6 the trends and variations of rainfall
warming and extreme weather events may influence must be studied to prepare suitable strategies and
the hydrological cycles and patterns of stream flows. adaptation plans to combat climate change. Although
several studies on Indian summer monsoon rainfall
The studies were conducted to analyze rainfall were carried out, however, the present research
trends and their variability, as well as extreme rainfall work attempted to study rainfall variations during
events, with longtime series data in India and the different seasons, monthly and annual over Assam
Assam region.7-8 Several attempts have also been of NE India by using the past dataset (1981-2017).
made to analyze the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) Precipitation Radar Tropical Methodology
Rainfall Measuring Mission (PRTRMM) satellite data Study Area
and India Meteorological Department (IMD) data for Assam is locatedin the south of the Eastern
identifying anomalies at multiple time scales with the Himalayas in northeast India. It shares about 533 km
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 437

of international boundaries with Bangladesh in the and 2017 that devastated nearly 50% of the total
south and Bhutan in the north. Assam covers an area geographical region of Assam in 2014.24 The climate
of 78,438 sq. km and is located between 24° 08′ N is characterized by a tropical monsoon humid climate
-28° 02′ N latitude and 89° 42′ E - 96° 00′ E longitude. with temperatures varying from 6°C in December to
It is bounded in the north byArunachal Pradesh and 38°C in May, and the average annual rainfall is about
Bhutan, Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh 1140 cm, most of which receives from the southwest
in the east, Meghalaya and Mizoram in the south, monsoon. The study area is home to rich biodiversity
and West Bengal, Tripura, and Bangladesh in the and true tropical rainforests. Intense rainfall and
west (Fig. 1). The rivers Brahmaputra and Barak,and other factors that include deforestation may cause
their tributaries,receive high rainfall almost round havoc in floods, resultingin loss of life, livelihood,
the year, which creates large- scale flood plains and property. This region is also categorized as
in this region. The river Brahmaputra originates an earthquake-pronezone.
in Tibet and flows down through China, India,
and Bangladesh. In India, it enters Arunachal For a period of 37 years during 1981-2017, rainfall
Pradesh draining nearly 226 km to reach the Assam data was collected from 26 locations covering the
plains. The river flows its waters for 700 km in entire Assam state of India (Fig. 1).Some of the
length and finally enters Bangladesh to confluence stations are locatedin high elevation zones and
intothe Bay of Bengal. The channel length varies in others represent valley portions. The monthly
the Assam valley and ranges between 1 and 18.5 data weredownloaded fromthe NASA website
km with an annual discharge of 19,820 cumecs.20 (https://power.larc.nasa.gov/) and the IMD stations.
The river Brahmaputra is known as the flooded river The geographical coordinates and altitude
of Assam because of catastrophic events in 1954, of locations are given in Table 1. The monthly,
1962, 1966, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, seasonal, and yearly analyses were carried out to
1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2016, ascertain trends in the rainfall data in the study area.

Fig.1: Station locations of Assam, India.

 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 438

Method for Trend Analysis If lZl>Z1-α/2, the hypothesis of no trend is rejected

In the present research work, the Mann–Kendall where Z is taken from the standard normal
(MK) test was applied to evaluatethe statistical distribution table and α is the level of significance.35
significance of the rainfall trend in time series.25-26 The significance level i.e., 0.05 in hypothesis testing
The test is more favored than any other test and has is used for rejecting the H0 in the present study.
been applied in several hydro-meteorological studies
across the world, including Ahmed et al. (2022),27 The Magnitude of Trend
Priyanka and Naresh, (2022) 28 in Assam and Sen’s Slope (SS) test, which works efficiently on
NE India, Praveen et al.(2020)29 in other parts of monotonic data, was determined for analyzing the
India, Mallick et al. (2021)30 in South West Asia, magnitude of trend in a time series.36 Each individual
Muthoni et al. (2019)31 in Africa, and Gocić (2021)32 slope (Q) was estimated using the Eq. 4.
in Europe, Bartels et al. (2020) 33 in Americas,
and Yildirim and Rahman (2022)34 in Australia. ...(4)
It is based on the sample of data (Xi, i=1, 2, 3,.…n)
is independent and equally spread when
satisfying H0 (null hypothesis). On the other hand, where, Q = slope between data pointsx'j and xj; x'j =
if a monotonic trend exists in X, then the alternative data measurement at time i'; xj = data measurement
hypothesis (H1) is considered. The significance level at time ‘i' and i' = time after time i.
is α=0.05 for Kendall’s p-value.
The Sen's slope is the median of these N values
The S of Kendall’s tau is shown as Eq.1: of Q. The Sen's slope (Q') was computed based
on the Eq. 5.
...(1)
...(5)

here, x i and x j(y=x j-x i) =sequential time series ...(6)

observations, n=span of the time series.
where, N= number of calculated slopes.

Frequency Analysis of Rainfall

Recurrence interval or return period and exceedance
probability (reciprocal of return period) were
For the sample size more than 10, a normal calculated in the study area by using 37 years
distribution with a meanzero is usedand the of annual precipitation data with the help of Weibul’s
discrepancy of statistics S has been calculated equation37 as follows:
using Eq. 2:
Return period (Tᵣ) = n+1 /m ...(7)

Exceedance Probability=P(xm)=1/Tr ...(8)

...(2)
where, n = total number of observations, m = rank
where,m is the number of tied groups and ti is the of the observation.
extent of the ith tied group. The Z is considered by
using Eq.3: Excel spreadsheet 2007 and Xl stat software were
utilized for analytical calculations. The spatial
distribution of rainfall maps was prepared with
...(3) help of the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW), which
is an interpolation algorithm that works between
measurements, method in the Arc GIS environment.
 Table 1: Geographic details and rainfall (in mm) statistics (1981-2017)of different locations of Assam in NE India.

Location Lat Long Elev (m) Min Max Mean Median SD Variance CV (%) Kur Ske

point data.38
Barpeta 26.32101 91.01471 117.55 1280.8 2354.1 1873.8 1904.0 271.4 73638.6 14.5 -0.7 -0.1
Bongaigaon 26.47331 90.54161 116.51 1318.5 2466.9 1858.6 1889.2 294.9 86953.1 15.9 -0.6 -0.1
Demaji 27.47701 94.56061 300.40 1380.4 2911.7 2102.8 2084.9 376.9 142067.3 17.9 -0.4 0.3
Dhuburi 26.02171 89.97681 119.16 896.9 2611.1 1641.9 1649.4 434.3 188628.2 26.5 -0.6 0.2
Dibrugarh 27.48251 94.91081 300.40 1380.4 2911.7 2102.8 2084.9 376.9 142067.3 17.9 -0.4 0.3
Diphu 25.84691 93.43201 447.60 947.6 1980.6 1325.1 1301.7 235.6 55530.3 17.8 0.6 0.7
Goalpara 26.16951 90.61741 116.51 1318.5 2466.9 1858.6 1889.2 294.9 86953.1 15.9 -0.6 -0.1
Golaghat 26.50531 93.97241 369.77 1278.2 2483.0 1835.9 1803.8 300.0 90026.2 16.3 -0.4 0.2
Gossaigaon 26.44241 89.98231 119.16 896.9 2611.1 1641.9 1649.4 434.3 188628.2 26.5 -0.6 0.2
Guwahati 26.18231 91.74681 239.30 1225.5 2289.6 1804.0 1819.1 265.0 70220.9 14.7 -0.7 -0.1
Haflong 25.17981 93.01631 592.42 954.9 2430.5 1388.5 1343.0 315.4 99497.2 22.7 2.4 1.3
Hailakandi 24.68171 92.56291 295.13 1100.2 4146.3 1852.6 1756.6 590.8 349091.0 31.9 5.7 2.0
of the neighboring sample points. As it provides good

Jorhat 26.75361 94.22241 343.72 1234.4 2493.9 1813.8 1721.0 318.0 101130.0 17.5 -0.4 0.4
results in estimating interpolation maps, the method
estimated in IDW interpolation is a weighted average

can be used to prepare spatial distribution maps for

Each value of the amount of rainfall at a location

Kajalgaon 26.53231 90.52541 697.69 1308.4 2197.3 1753.8 1789.2 234.0 54751.1 13.3 -0.7 -0.3
Karimganj 24.86521 92.36381 137.22 1233.5 5673.1 2251.4 2081.7 829.5 688037.4 36.8 7.4 2.2
Mangaldoi 26.43681 92.03211 269.07 1152.7 2068.9 1641.3 1623.2 236.2 55798.5 14.4 -0.8 0.0
Marigaon 26.25251 92.34091 269.07 1152.7 2068.9 1641.3 1623.2 236.2 55798.5 14.4 -0.8 0.0
Mushalpur 26.65121 91.39631 618.90 1263.9 2249.0 1803.4 1815.5 238.4 56838.1 13.2 -0.5 -0.2
Nagaon 26.34961 92.68621 258.95 1113.0 1950.6 1512.4 1499.7 221.4 49007.4 14.6 -0.8 0.0
Rainfall Pattern

Nalbari 26.44381 91.43781 117.55 1280.8 2354.1 1873.8 1904.0 271.4 73638.6 14.5 -0.7 -0.1
North 27.23421 94.09881 451.81 1418.6 2869.4 2149.0 2079.1 351.1 123263.6 16.3 -0.3 0.2
Lakhimpur
Results and Discussion

Sibsagar 26.98851 94.63201 557.95 1021.4 2560.9 1744.3 1674.7 379.9 144326.6 21.8 -0.6 0.4
Silchar 24.81671 92.79641 295.13 1100.2 4146.3 1852.6 1756.6 590.8 349091.0 31.9 5.7 2.0
GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022)

Tezpur 26.63101 92.79201 496.61 1207.0 2125.0 1668.7 1667.6 245.4 60241.8 14.7 -0.7 -0.1
Tinsukia 27.48281 95.35371 373.96 1158.0 2890.5 1994.0 1967.0 426.6 182024.5 21.4 -0.5 0.3
Udalguri 26.74721 92.10461 631.32 1168.9 2063.8 1645.9 1638.1 231.2 53435.8 14.0 -0.6 -0.1

(Lat- Latitude; Long- Longitude; Ele- Elevation; Min- Minimum; Max- Maximum; SD- Standard Deviation;
CV- Coefficient of Variation; Kur- Kurtosis; Ske- Skewness)
The rainfall received in 26 locations of different

data represents the typical spatial distribution

districts of Assam during the period of 1981-2017
439

is presented in Table 1. The 37-year time series

 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 440

of rainfall over Karimganj, Hailakandi, Silchar, high in the western and southern parts and low in
Dhuburi, and Gossaigaon and others received the central region (Fig. 2b). The monsoon season
a good rainfall throughout the monsoon months. (MS) contributes 71.8% of the total annual rainfall,
The mean maximum and minimum were recorded the premonsoon season (PRMS) 24.8%, and the
as 2251.4 mm (Karimganj) and 1325.1 mm (Diphu). winter season (WS) 2% of total rainfall, whereas
The dataset is skewed between -0.3 (Kajalgaon) rainfall inthe postmonsoon season (POMS) is the
and 2.2 (Karimganj). Most of the stations are least (1.4%). The highest monthly rainfall is noted
positively skewed. The Kurtosis of the rainfall in July (348 mm) followed byJune (309.3 mm),
datasets ranged from -0.8 (Mangaldoi and and Aug. (290.1 mm), while Jan. (10.3 mm), Dec.
Nagaon) to 5.7 (Hailakandi and Silchar) indicating (10.5 mm), and Nov. (15.3 mm) months recorded
platykurtic and leptokurtic distribution. The coefficient low rainfall. The uneven distribution of rainfall
of variance (CV) was found to be 19.2%. events isa possible cause of floods in different
portions ofthe state.
The long-term series of yearly rainfall explained that
the average annual rainfall received was 1793.5 mm Rainfall Trends
with a SDof ±346.2 mm. The average annual rainfall The MK and SS testare generally applied for
varies from 1325.1 to 2251.4 mm with CV from quantifying the trends in hydro-meteorological time
13.2 to 36.8%. The highest variation was observed series.39-40 The analysis of rainfall data (1981-2017)
at Karimganj station (southern part) with 2251.4 was carried out in winter season (WS):January-
mm (±829.5 mm) with CV 36.8% and the lowest February, premonsoon season (PRMS): March-
was 1325.1 mm (±221.4 mm) at Diphu. The central May, monsoon season (MS): June-October,
and western portions of the study area received and postmonsoon season (POMS): November-
low rainfall when compared to north-eastern and December. Monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall
southern parts (Fig. 2a). The coefficient of variation trends of the study were analyzed by using MK
was noted to be contrary to the mean, which was and SS tests.

Table 2: MK test and Sen’s slope (Q) results for the period 1981-2017 in Assam, India.

K tau S p-value Q Min Max Mean SD

Jan -0.069 -46 0.556 -0.052 0.5 45.6 10.3 9.3

Feb -0.084 -56 0.472 -0.230 0.7 71.9 25.8 17.6
Mar 0.129 86 0.266 0.537 6.8 126.3 54.0 33.8
Apr 0.165 110 0.154 1.909 37.5 349.8 163.7 82.3
May 0.408 272 0.000 4.246 59.9 416.7 226.5 79.4
Jun 0.360 240 0.002 4.418 148.9 504.8 309.3 83.6
Jul 0.072 48 0.539 0.816 204.8 508.7 348.0 79.3
Aug 0.291 194 0.012 3.550 160.8 528.9 290.1 91.2
Sep -0.012 -8 0.927 -0.141 123.1 388.8 233.2 63.6
Oct 0.189 126 0.102 1.698 12.8 239.5 106.9 56.8
Nov 0.078 52 0.505 0.116 0.4 50.9 15.3 14.1
Dec -0.057 -38 0.628 -0.058 0.0 57.0 10.5 11.3
Annual 0.429 286 0.000 16.504 1357.7 2593.8 1793.5 279.0
WS -0.048 -32 0.685 -0.180 2.1 108.5 36.1 21.6
PRMS 0.366 244 0.001 6.700 182.5 774.4 444.1 137.6
MS 0.393 262 0.001 9.270 922.6 1767.3 1274.2 180.7
POMS -0.087 -58 0.456 -0.193 2.8 67.7 25.8 18.2

(K tau-Kendall's tau;Min- Minimum; Max- Maximum. SD- Standard Deviation; WS-Winter;

PRMS- Pre Monsoon; MS- Monsoon; POMS- Post Monsoon)
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 441

Annual Rainfall Trend 5% over the long-term normal in the past 10

The statistical results are presented in Table 2. years period.The substantial decrease in rainfall
‘S’ value shows an increasing trend (+veS value) (1901-2010) during MS and POMS over Assam
and a decreasing trend (-veS value). The annual was recorded.42 A non-significant negative trend
rainfall shows an increasing trend with Sen’s for the MS and a positive trend in rainfall for PRMS
slope magnitude of 16.504, while the winter and and POMS over Northeast India was noted by
postmonsoon seasons are recorded with decreasing Lairenjam et al. (2017).43 Kumar et al. (2010)44 found
trends. The magnitudes of the slope for winter and no significant trend for monthly, seasonal and yearly
POMS are -0.180 and -0.193, respectively.During rainfall during 1871-2005 in India. Haryana, Punjab,
the study period 1901-2002, Goyal (2014)41 recorded and Coastal Karnataka divisions of India data
insignificant changes in annual rainfall, but the were found to be statistically significant. However,
monsoon season hadastrong correlation with yearly the rainfall was recorded in a decreasing trend over
rainfall, trailed by precipitation rainfall in summer the north eastern parts, east Madhya Pradesh, and
and winter over Assam. The present study results parts of Gujarat and Kerala.45-46 Therefore, the spatial
also show the changes in rainfall patterns for the and temporal rainfall trends may vary from station
last two decades. to station or region to region data.

Monthly Rainfall Trend Long Term Average (LTA) Rainfall

Monthly rainfall trends inferred that the rainfall in The analysis shows that the study area exhibits
the monsoon months (June and August) recorded heterogeneous rainfall patterns over space and time
an increasing trend of 4.4 and 3.5 mm/year, during 1981-2017. Out of 37 years, it was recorded
respectively. July and October were recorded that a total of 19 years received rainfall less than
with a slightly increasing trend, while the month the long-term average (LTA), while 18 years were
of September decreased to -0.141 mm/y rainfall noted with more rainfall than LTA (Fig.4). The LTA
(Table 2). In particular, the month of May showed an is recorded with 1793.5 mm rainfall. The minimum
increasing trend with 4.2 mm/y, and rainfall in June average annual rainfall (AAR) was recorded as
leads to flooding of fields in the region. However, 1357.7 mm in 1986, whereas the maximum AAR
the increasing trends of PRMS rainfall may help to was noted as 2593.8 mm in 2017. The maximum
perform the agricultural activities of field preparation downpour of more than 1900 mm was recorded
and planting of crops at the beginning of the season. with AAR of 1928.5 (1990), 1929.4 (2013), 1978.1
It is observed that December, January, and February (1981), 1987.8 (2007), and above 2000 mm AAR
show a decreasing trend in rainfall,which may noted were of 2010.5 (1988), 2060.7 (2004), 2112.5
lead to difficulties for farmers in preparing crops. (2012), 2178.6 (2015), 2200 (2016), 2375.7 (2010),
The decreasing trend of rainfall in September may 2593.8 (2017). During 2007-2017, the area received
lead to water stress conditions for crops during the excess rainfall than LTA, except in 2014 (1758.6).
flowering stage and reduced production. Overall, the trend of rainfall in Assam during 1982-
2017 indicates an increasing rainfall with an average
Seasonal Rainfall Trend value of 16.092 mm/yr. There was a significant
The winter season (January to February) rainfall excess of rainfall with departures varying between
has a general decreasing trend over the study 0-200 mm for 12 years, and 6 years received 200-
period. With a decreasing value of 0.2346 mm/year, 800 mm more rainfall than LTA. On the other hand,
it was extremely variable compared to the normals 8 years received less rainfall with departures varying
(Fig. 3a). There is a significant increasing trend between 0-200 mm less rainfall from LTA, and 10
from the 2000s as the moving average shows years recorded more than 200 mm up to 435.8 mm.
positive trend in the PRMS (Fig. 3b). The MS rainfall During 1981-2000 the area received nearly 49%
(June-October) has an increasing trend over of total rainfall whereas 51% of it was contributed
the study period (9.6753 mm/year) (Fig. 3c). in the last 17 years. Particularly, in the last decade
The POMS rainfall has shown an overall declining during the study period, it was recorded that there
trend. The data is highly flexible compared to the was 15% excess rainfall of LTA. The highest
normals (Fig. 3d). It has decreased by almost percentage of excess rainfall than LTA observed
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 442

was in 2017 (44.5%) preceded by 2010 (32.5%), exceedance probability with a minimum value
2016 (22.7%), and 2015 (21.5%) while the least of recurrence interval or return period. The
rainfall was recorded in 1986 (24.3%), 1983 (23.2%, study area has a 51% of exceedance probability
1996 (19.7), and 1992 (18.7%). of receiving rainfall above LTA. It implies that in 19
years out of every 37 years over Assam state rainfall
Rainfall Frequency Analysis of 1793 mm or more can be expected. The amount
The average annual rainfall and respective of rainfall around 2000 mm corresponding to 0.75
exceedance probabilities are presented in the of exceedance probability and 1800 mm (p=0.5) can
form of graphs (Fig. 5). It shows that the maximum be expected respectively in 28 years and 19 years
exceedance probability with the high value for the over the study area.
return period and the low rainfall has the minimum

Fig. 2: Spatial distribution of rainfall pattern in Assam, NE India during 1981-2017 a) average
annual rainfall (AAR) and b) coefficient of variation (CV).

Fig. 3: Rainfall linear trend shows with moving average over Assam of India during 1981-2017
a) WS, b) PRMS, c) MS,and d) POMS.
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 443

Fig. 4: Long term average rainfall trend over Assam of India during 1981-2017.

Fig. 5: Average annual rainfall and respective exceedance probabilities over

Assam state in North-Eastern India.

Conclusions Silchar, Gossiagaon, and Dhuburi stations witnessed

The long-term rainfall during 1981–2017 over Assam more than 25% of the CV rainfall. On seasonal
state, NE India was analyzed to examine yearly, scales, premonsoon and monsoon rainfall over
monthly, and seasonal trends. Trends in total rainfall Assam witnessed increasing trends with statistically
are assessed using the MK and Sen’s slope test. high significance levels. Whereas postmonsoon and
Monthly rainfall trends witnessed a decreasing trend winter rainfall recorded decreasing trends, but the
in September, December, January, and February. trend was statistically non-significant. Therefore, the
The months of May, June, and August recorded an stations for collecting data may need to be increased
increasing trend found to be statistically significant. for analyzing trends in rainfall to arrive at reasonable
Similarly, annual, PRMS, and MS increasing trends in conclusions in the present study.
rainfall witnessed with significant level, while POMS
and WS trends were statistically non-significant. Climate change can impact people’s livelihoods,
In the case of the location-wise rainfall in Assam, particularly those who are dependent on natural
the four stations, i.e., Demaji, Dibrugarh, Karimganj, resources. Assam is considered a global biodiversity
and North Lakhimpur, recorded with above 2000 mm hotspot since it supports varied ethnic and folk
average yearly rainfall, while Diphu and Hulflong groups with a rich cultural heritage and traditional
noted less than 1500 mm. Karimganj, Hailakand, knowledge of the environment. The increased
 GOGOI & RAO, Curr. World Environ., Vol. 17(2) 435-446 (2022) 444

carbon foot print in Assam could be attributed to general and Assam in particular, the future studies
changing land use pattern, urbanization, growth need to be conducted by using daily rainfall and rainy
of population, the use of fossil fuels, shifting days data for long-term historical time series. Due to
cultivation along with deforestation, and other the non-availability of data and data discontinuities,
factors. The available evidence shows that the the present study only focused on monthly, seasonal,
decline of forest cover and significant growth and yearly rainfall analysis for the period 1981-
of population from about 8 million (1951) to 32 million 2017 to assess the rainfall trends. The distribution
(2011) also put pressure on the natural resources of established meteorological stations in the study
of the area. To make appropriate adaptation and area is relatively scarce and it is also impossible to
mitigation plans by considering future climates, establish them everywhere because of unsupported
the concerned authorities must take necessary topography. Hence, considering the limitations
steps for establishing eco-restoration, education of meteorological stations in the area, further
and awareness programs, and development research is possible by using long-term satellite-
of mechanisms at the regional and national levels based rainfall estimates, which have become
coordination in protecting and conserving the natural important sources across the globe for getting
resources of Assam. The decrease of rainfall in precipitation data for sparse regions.
the POMS and the WS, and sudden rainfall events
are a cause of great concern because they may Acknowledgement
have implications for the ecosystem as well as We are grateful to NASA and India Meteorological
human health. It has been reported that flash Department for providing access to download the
floods in several parts of the state are occurring precipitation data from their website for academic
due to unprecedented and sudden heavy rainfall. and research purposes.
The Nor’westers, locally called Bordoisila, comprise
violent thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds. Funding
They raise alarm about changing of climates, which No funds/ grants were received for the present
needs to be combated with suitable adaptation plans research work.
to avoid economic burden in the future. In view
of the accelerated growth of extreme weather events, Conflict of Interest
for example, floods and heatwaves in NE India in The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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