Probability & Statistics (MT-331)

Practice Problems
Correlation & Simple Regression
Q1. An article in the Tappi Journal (March, 1986) presented data on green liquor Na2S concentration (in grams
per liter) and paper machine production (in tons per day). The data (read from a graph) are shown as follows:

𝑦 40 42 49 46 44 48 46 43 53 52 53 57 58
𝑥 825 830 890 895 890 910 915 960 990 1010 1012 1030 1050
(a) Calculate coefficient of correlation between 𝑦 = green liquor Na2S concentration and 𝑥 = production.
(b) Fit a simple linear regression model with 𝑦 = green liquor Na2S concentration and 𝑥 = production.
(c) Find the fitted value of 𝑦 corresponding to 𝑥 = 910 and the associated residual.
Q2. An article in the Journal of Sound and Vibration (Vol. 151, 1991, pp. 383-394) described a study
investigating the relationship between noise exposure and hypertension. The following data are representative
of those reported in the article.

𝑦 1 0 1 2 5 1 4 6 2 3
𝑥 60 63 65 70 70 70 80 90 80 80

𝑦 5 4 6 8 4 5 7 9 7 9
𝑥 85 89 90 90 90 90 94 100 100 100
(a) Calculate coefficient of correlation between 𝑦 (blood pressure rise in millimetres of mercury) and 𝑥 (sound
pressure level in decibels).
(b) Fit the simple linear regression model with 𝑦 (blood pressure rise in millimetres of mercury) and 𝑥 (sound
pressure level in decibels).
(c) Find the fitted value of rise in blood pressure level associated with a sound pressure level of 85 decibels.
Basic Probability
Q3. How many ways can 4 baseball players and 3 basketball players be selected from 12 baseball players and 9
basketball players.
Q4. Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips from two brands, a hard drive
from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can
Sam order the parts?

Q5. If an experiment consists of throwing a die and then drawing a letter at random from the English alphabet,
how many points are there in the sample space?

Q6. Students are classified according to eye-color (blue, brown, green), gender (male, female) and major
(chemistry, mathematics, physics, business). How many possible different classifications are there? Use a tree
diagram.
Q7. A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor, rustic, colonial, and
traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story, and split-level floor plans. In how many different ways can a
buyer order one of these homes? Use a tree diagram.

Q8. How many different letter arrangements are possible from the words
(a) FLUKE (b) ARRANGE (c) STATISTICS
Q9. In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players standing in a row.
Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors. How many different ways
can they be arranged in a row if only their class level will be distinguished?
Laws Of Probability
Q10. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a university by the end of the
semester. After being interviewed at two companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer
from company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting offer from company B is 0.6. if he believes that the
probability that he will get offers from both companies is 0.5. What is the probability that he will get at least one
offer from these two companies?
Q11. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new automobile
will choose the color green, white, red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of these colors?
Q12. From past experience, a stockbroker believes that under present economic conditions a customer will invest
in tax-free bonds with a probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual funds with probability of 0.3, and will invest in
both tax-free bonds and mutual funds with a probability of 0.15. At this time, find the probability that a customer
will invest
(a) in either tax-free bonds or mutual funds;
(b) in neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds.
Q13. An auto mobile manufacturer is concerned about a possible recall of its best-selling four-door sedan. If
there were a recall, there is a probability of 0.25 of a defect in the brake system, 0.18 of a defect in the
transmission, 0.17 of a defect in the fuel system, and 0.40 of a defect in some other area. What is the probability
that the defect is the brakes or the fueling system if the probability of defects in both systems simultaneously is
0.15?
Q14. The probability that an American industry will locate in Shanghai, China, is 0.7, the probability that it will
locate in Beijing, China, is 0.4, and the probability that it will locate in either Shanghai or Beijing or both is 0.8.
What is the probability that the industry will locate in both cities?
Q15. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are randomly
selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability
that both fuses are defective?
Q16. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The probability that the
fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is
0.3. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance and
the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.
Q17. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find
the probability that the event 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 occurs, where 𝐴1 is the event that the first card is a red ace, 𝐴2 is
the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and 𝐴3 is the event that the third card is greater than 3 but less
than 7.

Q18. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is 𝑃(𝐷) = 0.83; the probability that it
arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.78. Find
the probability that a plane
(a) Arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) Departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

Bayes’ Theorem

Q19. In a bolt factory, machines 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 and 𝐴3 manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% of the total output, respectively.
Of their outputs 5%, 4% and 2%, respectively are defective bolts. A bolt is selected at random and found to be
defective. What is the probability that the bolt came from machine 𝐴1 ?
Q20. A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design and development of a particular
product. For cost reasons, all three are use at varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and
50% of the products, respectively. The defect rate is different for the three procedures as follows:
𝑃(𝐷|𝑃1 ) = 0.01 , 𝑃(𝐷|𝑃2 ) = 0.03 , 𝑃(𝐷|𝑃3 ) = 0.02

Where 𝑃(𝐷|𝑃𝑗 ) is the probability of a defective product, given plan j. If a random product was observed and
found to be defective, which plan was most likely used and thus responsible?
Q21. A large industrial firm uses three local motels to provide overnight accommodations for its clients. From
past experience it is known that 20% of the clients are assigned rooms at the Ramada Inn, 50% at the Sheraton,
and 30% at the Lakeview Motor Lodge. If the plumbing is faulty in 5% of the rooms at the Ramada Inn, in 4%
of the rooms at the Sheraton, and in 8% of the rooms at the Lakeview Motor Lodge, what is the probability that
a person with a room having faulty plumbing was assigned accommodations at the Lakeview Motor Lodge?
Q22. A construction company employs two sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work of estimating cost for
70% of jobs, bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for 30% of jobs bid by the company. It is known
that the error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the probability of an error when he does the work, whereas
the probability of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in
estimating cost. Which engineer would guess do the work? Explain and show all work.
Q23. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four different locations within the city limits.
The radar traps at each of the locations 𝐿1, 𝐿2, 𝐿3, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐿4 will be operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of the time.
If a person who is speeding on her way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing
through these locations, what is the probability that she passed through the radar trap located at 𝐿2 .
Random Variables
Q24. Marketing estimates that a new instrument for the analysis of soil samples will be very successful,
moderately successful, or unsuccessful, with probabilities 0.3, 0.6, and 0.1, respectively. The yearly revenue
associated with a very successful, moderately successful, or unsuccessful product is $8 million, $6 million, and
$4 million, respectively. Let the random variable X denote the yearly revenue of the product. Determine the
probability mass function of X.

Q25. A shipment of 7 television sets contains 2 defective sets. A hotel makes a random purchase of 3 of the sets.
If 𝑥 is the number of defective sets purchased by the hotel, find the probability distribution of 𝑋. Express the
results graphically as a probability histogram.

Q26. An important factor in solid missile fuel is the particle size distribution. Significant problems occur if the
particle sizes are too large. From production data in the past, it has been determined that the particle size (in
micrometres) distribution is characterized by
3𝑥 −4 , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑥 > 1
𝑓(𝑦) = {
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

a) Verify that this is a valid density function.

b) Evaluate 𝐹(𝑥).
c) What is the probability that a random particle from the manufactured fuel exceeds 4 micrometres?

Q27. Impurities in a batch of final product of a chemical process often reflect a serious problem. From
considerable plant data gathered, it is known that the proportion Y of impurities in a batch has a density function
given by
10(1 − 𝑦)9 , 0 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 1,
𝑓(𝑦) = {
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒,

a) Verify that the above is a valid density function.

b) A batch is considered not sellable and then not acceptable if the percentage of impurities exceeds 60%. With
the current quality of the process, what is the percentage of batches that are not acceptable P(Y>0.6)?

Mathematical Expectation
Q28. The probability distribution of 𝑋, the number of imperfections per 10 meters of a synthetic fabric is
continuous rolls of uniform width, is given by

𝑥 0 1 2 3 4
𝑓(𝑥) 0.41 0.37 0.16 0.05 0.01
a) Plot the probability function.
b) Construct the cumulative distribution function of 𝑋.
c) Find the expected number of imperfections, 𝐸(𝑋) and 𝐸(𝑋2).

Q29. The number of miles an automobile tire lasts before it reaches a critical point in tread wear can be
represented by a p.d.f.
1 −𝑥
𝑓(𝑦) = {30 𝑒 , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑥 > 0
30

0, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑥 ≤ 0
Find the expected mean number of miles (in thousands) a tire would last until it reaches the critical tread wear
point.

Probability Distributions
Q30. In the November 1990 issue of Chemical Engineering progress, a study discussed the percent purity of
oxygen from a certain supplier. Assume that the mean was 99.61 with a standard deviation of 0.08. Assume that
the distribution of percent purity was approximately normal. What percentage of the purity values would you
expect to be between 99.5 and 99.7?

Q31. Each sample of water has a 10% chance of containing a particular organic pollutant. Assume that the
samples are independent with regard to the presence of the pollutant. Find the probability that in the next 18
samples; at least four samples contain the pollutant.
Q32. In testing a certain kind of truck tire over rugged terrain, it is found that 25% of the trucks fail to complete
the test run without a blowout. Of the next 15 trucks tested, find the probability that
a) from 3 to 6 blowouts;
b) fewer than 4 have blowouts;
c) more than five have blowouts.

Q33. Potholes on a highway can be a serious problem, and are in constant need of repair. With a particular type
of terrain and make of concrete, past experience suggests that there are, on the average, 2 potholes per mile after
a certain amount of usage. It is assumed that the Poisson process applies to the random variable “number of
potholes.”
a) What is the probability that no more than one pothole will appear in a section of 1 mile?
b) What is the probability that no more than 4 potholes will appear in a given section of 5 miles?

Q34. On average, 3 traffic accidents per month occur at a certain intersection. What is the probability that in any
given month at this intersection
a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
b) fewer than 3 accidents will occur?
c) atleast 2 accidents will occur?
Q35. A large company has an inspection system for the batches of small compressors purchased from vendors.
A batch typically contains 15 compressors. In the inspection system, a random sample of 5 is selected and all
are tested. Suppose there are 2 faulty compressors in the batch of 15. What is the probability that for a given
sample there will be 1 faulty compressor?

Estimation
Q36. The yield of a chemical process is being studied. From previous experience yield is known to be normally
distributed and population standard deviation is 3. The past five days of plant operation have resulted in the
following percent yields: 91.6, 88.75, 90.8, 89.95, and 91.3. Find a 90% two-sided confidence interval on the
true mean yield.

Q37. A civil engineer is analyzing the compressive strength of concrete. Compressive strength is normally
distributed with 𝜎 2 = 1000(𝑝𝑠𝑖)2. A random sample of 12 specimens has a mean compressive strength of 𝑥̅ =
3250 𝑝𝑠𝑖. Construct a 95% two-sided confidence interval on mean compressive strength.

Q38. The compressive strength of concrete is being tested by a civil engineer. He tests 12 specimens and obtains
the following data.
2216 2237 2249 2204 2225 2301 2281 2263 2318 2255 2275 2295
Construct a 95% two-sided confidence interval on the mean strength.
Testing of Hypotheses
Q39. A building inspector claims that the true mean compressive strength of a particular type of brick is at most
3200 psi. A random sample of 49 bricks was selected for testing, which resulted in the following summary:
sample mean =3115 psi and sample standard deviation =180 psi. Do the sample data support the inspector’s
claim at the significance level of 𝛼=0.01?

Q40. The time a patient must wait before being attended by a physician in a hospital has been observed for 100
randomly selected patients. The sample mean is 70.3 minutes and the sample standard deviation is 28.2 minutes.
Test the hypothesis that the mean waiting time in the hospital is not more than 65 minutes. Use 5% level of
significance.

Q41. An engineer who is studying the tensile strength of a steel alloy intended for use in golf club shafts knows
that tensile strength is approximately normally distributed with 𝜎 = 60 𝑝𝑠𝑖. A random sample of 12 specimens
has a mean tensile strength of 𝑥̅ = 3250 𝑝𝑠𝑖. Test the hypotheses that mean strength is 3500 psi. Use 𝛼=0.01.