Midterm Exam #1KEY

Probability and Statistics, GENG200

FALL 2022

Date Start time Duration No. of pages

th
Mon. 26 Oct. 2022 12:00 am 120 minutes 8
INSTRUCTIONS Question Mark

1. Formulae Annex on last pages 6 and 6 (1)

2. Read and observe the following rules: / 50
a) No candidate shall be permitted to enter the examination room after
the expiration of one–half hour, or to leave during the first half–hour (2)
of the examination.
b) Candidates are not permitted to ask questions to the invigilators, / 20
except in cases of supposed errors or ambiguities in examination
questions. (3)
3. Show all your work. Justify your answers. Partial credit is possible for an
/ 15
answer, but only if you show the intermediate steps in obtaining the
answer.
(4)
Caution – Candidates guilty of any of the following, or similar, dishonest / 15
practices shall be immediately dismissed from the examination and shall be
liable to disciplinary action: BONUS
▪ Making use of any books, papers or memoranda, cell phones, audio or
visual cassette players or other memory aid devices, other than as / 20
authorized by the examiners.
▪ Speaking or communicating with other candidates. Total
▪ Purposely exposing written papers to the view of other candidates. /100
▪ The plea of accident or forgetfulness shall not be received.

STUDENT NAME :__________________________________________________________

STUDENT ID :_________________________________

Answer the following questions. Good luck!

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Question 1: (a-j) 5 pts [50pts]

The Canon company collected the statistics of 18,000 old cameras each with a certain problem. Some
cameras may show certain anomalies (A) (e.g., blurry, or noisy pictures, contrast or saturation problems).
There are basically three camera problems: Machinery (M), Electrical (E) and Optics (O), that occur with
probabilities of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. When a camera is randomly selected, the probability of
having an anomaly and machinery problem is 0.06, having an anomaly and optics problem is 0.1, having
an anomaly and electrical problem is 0.2.
Answer the following:
𝑷(𝑴) = 0.3, 𝑷(𝑶) = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑷(𝑬) = 0.5
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) = 𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) × 𝑷(𝑴) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑶) = 𝑷(𝑨|𝑶) × 𝑷(𝑶) = 𝟎. 𝟏
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) = 𝑷(𝑨|𝑬) × 𝑷(𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟐

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 → 𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎
𝑷(𝑴)
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑶)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑶) = = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎 → 𝑷(𝑨|𝑶) = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎
𝑷(𝑶)
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑬) = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎 → 𝑷(𝑨|𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟎
𝑷(𝑬)

𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑺) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 → 𝑷(𝑨 ̅ ) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔 𝟏 𝟓
𝑷(𝑴|𝑨) = = = → 𝑷(𝑴 ̅ |𝑫) =
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 𝟔 𝟔
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑺) 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟏𝟎 𝟐𝟔
𝑷(𝑺|𝑨) = = = → 𝑷(𝑺̅|𝑫) =
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟎
𝑷(𝑬|𝑨) = = = → 𝑷(𝑬 ̅ |𝑨) =
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔

a) What is the main feature of the three events, M, O and E? Are they independent?

They are mutually exclusive. No.

b) For a camera with a machinery problem, what is the probabiliy that it has no anomaly?

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 → 𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎
𝑷(𝑴)

c) How many cameras will likely to have optics problem? How many of them will likely to have an
anomaly?

𝑷(𝑶) = 0.2 → 𝒔(𝑶) = 18000 × 𝟎. 𝟐 = 𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑷(𝑨|𝑶) = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎.

𝑺𝒐 𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒇 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒎 (𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔) 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒂𝒏 𝒂𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒚

d) How many cameras will likely to have an anomaly and machinery problem?

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) = 𝑷(𝑨|𝑴) × 𝑷(𝑴) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔 → 𝒔(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) = 0.06 × 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔

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e) How many cameras are likely to have no anomaly?

̅ ) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑶) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 → 𝑷(𝑨
̅
𝒔(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒 × 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟏𝟏𝟓𝟐𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔
𝒔(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 × 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟔𝟒𝟖𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔

f) If a camera is randomly chosen, compute the probability that it has an anomaly and without a
machinery problem?

̅ ) = 𝑷(𝑨) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴) = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑴

g) Among all cameras with an anomaly, how many of them will likely to have the optics problem?

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑶) 𝟎. 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
𝑷(𝑶|𝑨) = = = → 𝒔(𝑶|𝑨) = × 𝟔𝟒𝟖𝟎 = 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔

h) Among all cameras with an anomaly, how many of them will likely to have no electrical
problem?

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟔 𝟏𝟔
𝑷(𝑬|𝑨) = = = ̅ |𝑨) =
→ 𝑷(𝑬 ̅ |𝑨) =
→ 𝒔(𝑬 × 𝟔𝟒𝟖𝟎 = 𝟐𝟖𝟖𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔

i) Among all good cameras (without an anomaly), how many of them will likely to have an
electrical problem?

𝒔(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒 × 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟏𝟏𝟓𝟐𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) 𝑷(𝑬) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑬) 𝟎. 𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟑𝟎 𝟑𝟎
𝑷(𝑬|𝑨) = = = = → 𝒔(𝑬|𝑨) = × 𝟏𝟏𝟓𝟐𝟎
𝑷(𝑨) 𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟔𝟒 𝟔𝟒 𝟔𝟒
= 𝟓𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒔

j) According to the statistics over the 18000 cameras, which problem is the main cause of an
anomaly. Justify.

Since 𝑷(𝑬|𝑨) > 𝑷(𝑶|𝑨) > 𝑷(𝑴|𝑨), electrical problems are the main cause of the anomalies.

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Question 2: (a-d) 5 pts [20 Marks]

In AWIS daycare in Doha, children of ages from 0 to 6 years old are accommodated. The past statistics
show that their weights are uniformly distributed between 7 and 32 kg. This daycare calls a child
“toddler” if s/he is less than 12 kg. Let the r.v. W represents the weight of each child.

a) Express or plot the pdf and cdf of the random variable, W.

𝑤−7
1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 7 < 𝑤 < 32
𝑓𝑊 (𝑤) = {25 𝑓𝑜𝑟 7 < 𝑤 < 32} 𝐹𝑊 (𝑤) ={ 25 }
0 𝑤<7
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒
1 𝑤 > 32

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected child is not a toddler?

32
1 20
𝑃(𝑊 ≥ 12) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑢)𝑑𝑢 = [32 − 12] = = 80%
25 25
12

c) While all kids are having their nap in a dark room, the nurse wants to check the toddlers. Determine
the probability that at most 2 children would be checked until a toddler is found.
The number children, X, checked until finding toddler follows Geometric distribution with 𝑝 =
𝑝(𝑤 < 12) = 1/5
1 4 1 9
The required probability is 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 𝑓(1) + 𝑓(2) = + =
5 5 5 25

d) Determine the probability that exactly 2 out of 20 randomly selected children would be toddlers.

The number of toddlers, Y, in 20 children is following a binomial distribution with

𝑝 = 𝑃(𝑊 < 12) = 1/5 and 𝑛 = 20
4 3 1 2
The probability of 2 toddlers among 20 children is: 𝑃(𝑌 = 2) = 𝐶[20, 2] ( ) ( )
5 5

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Question 3: (a-c) 5 pts [15pts]

In QU, past statistics show that you receive BB announcements with Poisson arrivals where the average
time between two announcement is 5 hours.
a) Let X be the r.v. that represents the time between two BB announcements and Y represents
number of announcements in 1 hour. What are the distributions and parameters of X and Y?
What is the probability that you don’t receive any announcement during the next 5 hours?
b) What is the probability that you receive more than 1 announcement within 30 minutes?
c) Say you did not receive any announcement during the last 5 hours, so what is the probability that
you don’t receive any announcement during the next 5 hours?

Sol:
1 1
X is an Exponential dist. random variable where 𝑋~𝐸𝑥𝑝 ( ) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑜 𝜆 = 𝑎/ℎ (avg. number of
5 5
1
announcements per hour). 𝑌~𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 ( )
5
1
a) 𝑌~𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 ( ) → 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟎) = 𝑷(𝑿 > 𝟓) = 𝒆−𝜆𝑥 = 𝒆−1 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔𝟕𝟗
5
1 1
b) 𝜆 = 𝑎/30𝑚𝑖𝑛 Let 𝑌~𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 ( ) , 𝑃(𝑌 > 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 = 0) − 𝑃(𝑌 = 1) = 1 −
10 10
1
−10 𝟏
𝒆 (𝟏 + ) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟔𝟖
𝟏𝟎
c) Same as a (no memory!)

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Question 4: (a-c) 5 pts [15pts]

The probability that your call to Qatar Airways customer service will be answered in less than a minute is
0.7. Assume that each of your call is independent.

a) If you call 10 times, what is the probability that at least 3 calls are answered in less than a minute?

X is binomial with n=10 and p=0.7

𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) − 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) − 𝑃(𝑋 = 2)
= 1 − (0.310 + 𝐶(10,1)0.39 0.7 + 𝐶(10,2)0.38 0.72 ) = 0.9984

b) If you call 20 times, what is the most likely number of calls that will be answered in less than a
minute? What is the probability that that many calls will be answered in less than a minute?

X is binomial with n=20 and p=0.7

𝜇 = 𝐸[𝑋] = 𝑛𝑝 = 20 ∗ 0.7 = 14𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠
20
𝑃(𝑋 = 14) = ( ) (1 − 0.7)6 (0.7)14 = 0.1916
14

c) What is the probability that you must call 5 times to obtain the first answer in less than a minute?
What is the probability that you must call minimum 5 times to obtain the first answer in less than a
minute?

𝑍 ~ Geometric Distribution(0.7)

𝑃(𝑍 = 5) = 0.35−1 × 0.7 = 0.00567

𝑃(𝑍 ≥ 5) = 𝑃(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 4 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 0.34 = 0.0081

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BONUS: (a-b) 10 pts [20 pts]
In Qatar the population is 2.8 million among which 0.2% are new-born babies (age < 1 month). Suppose
you make a survey (one person at a time in a randomly fashion) over a group of 10000 Qatari residents
randomly selected.

a) Let X be a r.v. that represents the number of new-born babies in the group. What is the distribution
and parameters of X? What is the number of new-born babies you expect to find with the highest
probability in the group? Compute this probability with a reasonable accuracy.

𝑿~𝑩𝑰𝑵(𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎, 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐).
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑 = 𝟐𝟎 → 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐𝟎) = ( ) (𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐)𝟐𝟎 (𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟖)𝟗𝟗𝟖𝟎
𝟐𝟎
𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎
With Poisson approximation, 𝝀 = 𝒏𝒑 = 𝟐𝟎, 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐𝟎) = 𝒆−𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟗
𝟐𝟎!

b) While conducting the survey, what is the expected number of people to be surveyed until you
encounter a new-born baby for the first time? What is the probability to encounter a new-born baby
for the first time with precisely that many number of people surveyed?
𝟏
𝒀~𝑮𝑬𝑶(𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐) → 𝑬(𝒀) = = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆. 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎) = (𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟖)𝟒𝟗𝟗 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐 =
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐
𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟕𝟑𝟔𝟓

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