Asistensi Statistika Ekonomi Dan Bisnis SP V

Asistensi Statistika
Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Pertemuan 05
Aji Putera Tanumihardja
Random Variables and Discrete Probability
Distributions
◼ Random variable
❑ A function that assigns numerical values to the
outcomes of a random experiment.
❑ Denoted by uppercase letters (e.g., X ).
◼ Values of the random variable are denoted by

corresponding lowercase letters.
❑ Corresponding values of the random variable:
x1, x2, x3, . . .
Distributions
◼ Random variables may be classified as:
❑ Discrete
◼ The random variable assumes a countable

number of distinct values.
❑ Continuous
◼ The random variable is characterized by
(infinitely) uncountable values within any
interval.
Distributions
◼ Consider an experiment in which two shirts are
selected from the production line and each can be
defective (D) or non-defective (N).
❑ Here is the sample space:
(D,D)
❑ The random variable X is (D,N)
the number of defective shirts. (N,D)
(N,N)
❑ The possible number of
defective shirts is the set {0, 1, 2}.
◼ Since these are the only possible outcomes, this is
a discrete random variable.
Distributions
◼ Every random variable is associated with a
probability distribution that describes the variable
completely.
❑ A probability mass function is used to describe
discrete random variables.
❑ A probability density function is used to describe
continuous random variables.
❑ A cumulative distribution function may be used to
describe both discrete and continuous random
variables.
Distributions
◼ The probability mass function of a discrete random
variable X is a list of the values of X with the
associated probabilities, that is, the list of all
possible pairs
( x, P ( X = x ) )
◼ The cumulative distribution function of X is defined
as
P ( X  x)
Distributions
◼ Two key properties of discrete probability
distributions:
❑ The probability of each value x is a value between
0 and 1, or equivalently
0  P ( X = x)  1
❑ The sum of the probabilities equals 1. In other words,
P ( X  x ) = 1
i
where the sum extends over all values x of X.

Distributions
◼ A discrete probability distribution may be viewed
as a table, algebraically, or graphically.
◼ For example, consider the experiment of rolling a
six-sided die. A tabular presentation is:
◼ Each outcome has an associated probability of

1/6. Thus, the pairs of values and their
probabilities form the probability mass function for
X.
Distributions
◼ Another tabular view of a probability distribution is
based on the cumulative probability distribution.
❑ For example, consider the experiment of rolling a
six-sided die. The cumulative probability distribution
is
◼ The cumulative probability distribution gives the

probability of X being less than or equal to x.
For example, P ( X  4) = 4 6
Distributions
◼ A probability distribution may be expressed
algebraically.
◼ For example, for the six-sided die experiment, the
probability distribution of the random variable X
is:
1 6 if x = 1,2,3,4,5,6
P ( X = x) = 
0 otherwise
◼ Using this formula we can find

P ( X = 5) = 1 6 P ( X = 7) = 0
Distributions
◼ A probability distribution may be expressed
graphically.
❑ The values x of X are placed on the horizontal axis and
the associated probabilities on the vertical axis.
❑ A line is drawn such that its height is associated with the
probability of x.
❑ For example, here is the
graph representing the
six-sided die experiment:
❑ This is a uniform distribution
since the bar heights are all
the same.
Distributions
◼ Example: Consider the probability distribution
which reflects the number of credit cards that
Bankrate.com’s readers carry:
❑ Is this a valid probability
distribution?
❑ What is the probability that a
reader carries no credit cards?
❑ What is the probability that a
reader carries less than two?
❑ What is the probability that a reader carries at least two
credit cards?
Distributions
◼ Consider the probability distribution which reflects
the number of credit cards that Bankrate.com’s
readers carry:
❑ Yes, because 0 < P(X = x) < 1
and SP(X = x) = 1.
❑ P(X = 0) = 0.025
❑ P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 0.025 + 0.098 = 0.123.
❑ P(X > 2) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
+ P(P = 4*) = 0.166 + 0.165 + 0.546 = 0.877.
Alternatively, P(X > 2) = 1 − P(X < 2) = 1 − 0.123 =
0.877.
Expected Value, Variance, and Standard
Deviation
◼ Summary measures for a random variable

include the
❑ Mean (Expected Value)
❑ Variance
❑ Standard Deviation
Deviation
◼ Expected Value Population Mean
E(X) m
❑ E(X) is the long-run average value of the random
variable over infinitely many independent
repetitions of an experiment.
❑ For a discrete random variable X with values
x1, x2, x3, . . . that occur with probabilities
P(X = xi), the expected value of X is
E ( X ) = m =  xi P ( X = xi )
Deviation
◼ Variance and Standard Deviation
❑ For a discrete random variable X with values
x1, x2, x3, . . . that occur with probabilities
P(X = x ),
i
Var ( X ) =  =  ( xi − m ) P ( X = xi )
2 2
=  xi2P ( X = xi ) − m 2
❑ The standard deviation is the square root of the
variance.
SD ( X ) =  =  2
Deviation
◼ Example: Brad Williams, owner of a car dealership
in Chicago, decides to construct an incentive
compensation program based on performance.
❑ Calculate the expected value of the annual bonus

amount.
❑ Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the
annual bonus amount.
Deviation
◼ Solution: Let the random variable X denote the
bonus amount (in $1,000s) for an employee.
❑ E(X) = m = Sxi P(X = xi) = 4.2 or $4,200

❑ Var(X) = 2 = S(xi − m)2P(X = xi) = 9.97 (in $1,000s)2.
❑ .SD( X ) =  2 = 9.97 = 3.158 or $3,158.
The Binomial Probability Distribution
◼ A binomial random variable is defined as the
number of successes achieved in the n trials of a
Bernoulli process.
❑ A Bernoulli process consists of a series of n
independent and identical trials of an

experiment such that on each trial:
◼ There are only two possible outcomes:
p = probability of a success
1−p = q = probability of a failure
◼ Each time the trial is repeated, the probabilities of
success and failure remain the same.
◼ A binomial random variable X is defined as the
number of successes achieved in the n trials of a
Bernoulli process.
◼ A binomial probability distribution shows the
probabilities associated with the possible values of
the binomial random variable (that is, 0, 1, . . . ,
n).
❑ For a binomial random variable X , the probability of x
successes in n Bernoulli trials is
( )
P ( X = x ) = nx p x q n − x =
n!
x ! ( n − x )!
pxq n−x
for x = 0,1,2, , n. By definition, 0! = 1.

◼ For a binomial distribution:
The expected value
E ( X ) = m = np
❑
(E(X)) is:
❑ The variance (Var(X)) is: Var ( X ) =  2 = npq
The standard deviation

SD ( X ) =  = npq
❑
(SD(X)) is:
◼ Example: Approximately 20% of U.S. workers are
afraid that they will never be able to retire.
Suppose 10 workers are randomly selected.
❑ What is the probability that none of the workers
is afraid that they will never be able to retire?

◼ Solution: Let X = 10, then
Thank you!
Asistensi Statistika Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Pertemuan 05
Aji Putera Tanumihardja

Asistensi Statistika Ekonomi Dan Bisnis SP V

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Asistensi Statistika Ekonomi Dan Bisnis SP V

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Asistensi Statistika Ekonomi Dan Bisnis SP V

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Asistensi Statistika

Ekonomi dan Bisnis

◼ Values of the random variable are denoted by

◼ The random variable assumes a countable

where the sum extends over all values x of X.

◼ Each outcome has an associated probability of

◼ The cumulative probability distribution gives the

◼ Using this formula we can find

◼ Summary measures for a random variable

❑ Calculate the expected value of the annual bonus

❑ E(X) = m = Sxi P(X = xi) = 4.2 or $4,200

independent and identical trials of an

for x = 0,1,2, , n. By definition, 0! = 1.

❑ The variance (Var(X)) is: Var ( X ) =  2 = npq

The standard deviation

is afraid that they will never be able to retire?

You might also like