Transportation System Analysis

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Introduction
 The functional effectiveness of a highway is measured in terms of
its ability to;
 Assist and accommodate the flow of vehicles with both safety
and efficiency.
 In order to measure its level of effectiveness, certain parameters
associated with the highway must be measured and analyzed.
 Basic traffic flow characteristics are analyzed on;

 Uninterrupted or

 Interrupted facilities

 NB:

 Uninterrupted or interrupted flow refers to a type of facility,

it is not quality of flow on a given segment

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Introduction
 These parameters/properties may include:
The quantity of traffic
 The type of vehicles within the traffic stream

 The distribution of flow over a period of time (usually 24

hours)
 The average speed of the traffic stream

 The density of the traffic flow.

 The above need to be analyzed as they will directly influence;

 Scale and layout of the proposed highway

 Type and quantity of materials used in its construction.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Introduction
 Behavior of traffic can be described as
 Macroscopic
 Mesoscopic and
 Microscopic

 Macroscopic Models
 Describe the traffic stream as a whole.
 Mostly used for large networks
 Traffic stream may be described macroscopically by the
following parameters:
 Volume or rate of flow

 Speed

 Density

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Introduction
 Mesoscopic Models
Considers individual or packets of vehicles
 Uses an input mix of fundamental diagram and behavioral
rules
 Mostly used for medium sized networks
 Microscopic Models
 Describe the behavior of individual vehicles or pairs of
vehicles within the traffic stream.
 Traffic stream may be described microscopically by these
parameters:
 Speed of individual vehicles

 Headway

 Spacing

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Space Mean Speed (SMS)

L nL
us = n = n
ti
∑i=1 n
∑
i=1
ti

 us = average travel speed or space mean speed (km/hr)

 L = length of the highway segment (km)
 ti = travel time of the ith vehicle to cross the section (hours)
 n = number of travel times observed

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Space Mean Speed (SMS) cont’d
 Segment Length = 1km
 Travel Time:
Vehicle A = 45 seconds = 0,0125 hr/km =80 km/hr
 Vehicle B = 60 seconds = 0,0166 hr/km =60 km/hr

 Vehicle C = 72 seconds = 0,0200 hr/km =50 km/hr

 What is the average travel speed of these three vehicles?

 Average Travel Time
 [0,0125 + 0,0166 + 0,0200] / 3 = 0,016389hr/km

 Average Travel Speed

 1 / 0,016389 = 61,01695 ≈ 61 km/hr

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
 Transportation System Analysis
 Time Mean Speed (TMS)

∑u i
ut = i =1
n
 ut = time mean speed (km/hr)
 ui = spot speed (km/hr)
 n = number of travel times observed
 Example:

 Three vehicles pass a kilometer post at 80, 60 and 50

km/hr, what is the time mean speed of the three vehicles?
 [80 + 60 + 50] / 3 = 63,33 km/hr

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 Transportation System Analysis
 SMS & TMS cont’d
 Time Mean Speed
 Arithmetic mean of the spot speeds
 Space Mean Speed
 Harmonic mean.
 Time Mean Speed is always greater than space mean speed except
in the situation where all vehicles travel at the same speed.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Volume and Rate of Flow
 Volume
is the actual number of vehicles observed or predicted to

be passing a point during a given time interval.
 Rate of Flow
 represent the number of vehicles passing a point during a
time interval less than 1 hour, but expressed as an
equivalent hourly rate.

 Example
 Volume of 200 vehicles observed in a 10-minute period
implies a rate of flow
 =200 x (60/10) = 1200 veh/hr.
 Note that 1200 vehicles do not pass the point of observation
during the study hour, but they do pass the point at that
rate for 10 minutes.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Volume and Rate of Flow cont’d
 Consider the following data below;

Time (period) Volume (vehicles)

4:00-4:15 700
4:16-4:30 812
4:31-5:00 1635
Total 3147

 Total volume = 3147 veh/hr

 Rate of flow:
 at 4:00 = 700 x 4 = 2800 veh/hr

 at 4:16 = 812 x 4 = 3248 veh/hr

 at 4:31 = 1635 x 2= 3270 veh/hr

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Macroscopic Models
 Speed, flow and density of a stream of traffic
 The flow, density and speed relationship is one most
important element in traffic flow theory.
 Many models exist that express the relationship between
these three traffic stream primary elements.
 The most commonly used models in traffic engineering
practice are;
 Greenshields: Greenshield equation for speed versus density
form a linear function, u = uf(1-k/kj )
 Greenberg: Greenberg equation for speed versus density form a
logarithmic function, u = c ln(kj/k)
 Underwood: Underwood model, the speed versus density
equation form an exponential function, u = uf exp(-k/ko)
 The Greenshield model will be discussed in this course.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed, flow and density of a stream of traffic
 Traffic flow, q,
 A measure of the volume of traffic on a highway, is defined
as the number of vehicles, n, passing some given point on
the highway in a given time interval, t, i.e.:
 q=n/t

 (q is expressed in vehicles per unit time – say veh/hr).

 Density, k,
 The number of vehicles on a given section of highway can be
computed in terms of the density or concentration of
traffic, i.e.,
 k=n/l

 (measure of the number of vehicles, n, occupying a length

of roadway, l say veh/km).

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed, flow and density of a stream of traffic cont’d
 For a given section of road containing k vehicles per unit length
l, the average speed of the k vehicles is termed the space mean
speed (u) (the average speed for all vehicles in a given space at a
given discrete point in time), i.e.,

L nL
us = n = n
ti
∑i=1 n
∑
i=1
ti

 L = length of the highway segment (km)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed, flow and density of a stream of traffic cont’d
 It can be seen that if q is divided by k, the expression for u
is obtained:

 q/k = (n/t)/(n/l) = (n/t)x(l/n) = l/t = u

 Thus, the three parameters u, k and q are directly related

under stable traffic conditions:

 q=uk

 This constitutes the basic relationship between traffic

flow, space mean speed and density.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship
 Where one car is moving along a stretch of highway,
densities (in vehicles per kilometer) will by definition be
near to zero and the speed at which the car can be driven is
determined solely by the geometric design and layout of the
road.
 Such a speed is termed free-flow speed (FFS) as it is in no
way hindered by the presence of other vehicles on the
highway.
 As more vehicles use the section of highway, the density of
the flow will increase and their speed will decrease from
their maximum free-flow value (uf ) as they are
increasingly more inhibited by the driving maneuvers of
others.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship cont’d
 If traffic volumes continue to increase, a point is reached
where traffic will be brought to a stop, thus speeds will
equal zero (u = 0), with the density at its maximum point as
cars are jammed bumper to bumper (termed jam density,
kj).
 Thus, the limiting values of the relationship between speed
and density are as follows:

 When k = 0, u = uf
 When u = 0, k = kj

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship cont’d
 Various attempts have been made to describe the
relationship between speed and density between these two
limiting points.
 Greenshields (1934) proposed the simplest representation
between the two variables, assuming a linear relationship
between the two, giving a rise to the following equation:

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed -Density Relationship cont’d
 Speed-Density relationship.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship cont’d
 This assumption of linearity allows a direct linkage to be
formed between the speed, flow and density of a stream of
traffic.
 This linear relationship between speed and density has been
put forward by Greenshields.
 The general form of Greenshields’ speed-density relationship
can be expressed as:
 u = c1 + c2k , where c1 and c2 are constants.

 [Compare: yi=b0+b1xi (regression model)]

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship
 Speed-density relationship (observed)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed - Density Relationship cont’d

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Flow- Density Relationship
 Flow and density relationship is derived by;
 q = uk = uf(1-k/kj)k, q = uf(k-k2/kj)

 This is a parabolic relationship below;

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Flow- Density Relationship cont’d
 Flow-density relationship (observed)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Flow- Density Relationship cont’d
 To establish the density at which maximum flow occurs,
above equation is differentiated (wrt k) and set equal to zero
as follows:
 dq/dk = uf(1-2k/kj)

 Since uf is not equal to 0, the term within the brackets must

equal zero, i.e.,
 1-2km/kj = 0 ,

 thus km = kj/2

 km, the density at maximum flow (also called critical

density), is thus equal to half the jam density, kj as shown on
the previous slides

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Flow- Density Relationship cont’d

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed- Flow Relationship

 Rearranging equation;

 Becomes;

 Since q=uk

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed-Flow Relationship cont’d
 Parabolic in nature;

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed- Flow Relationship cont’d
 Speed- Flow Relationship (observed)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed-Flow Relationship cont’d
 To find the speed at maximum flow, differentiated (wrt u)
above equation and put equal to zero:

 dq/du = kj(1-2u/uf) = 0

 since kj is not equal to zero the term within the brackets

must equal zero, therefore:

 1-2um/uf = 0 thus um = uf/2

 um the speed at maximum flow (also called critical speed),

is thus equal to half the free-flow speed, uf as shown on the
previous slide.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed-Flow Relationship cont’d

 Therefore;
 q=uk,

 i.e.,

 Capacity(qm)

 = umkm

 = uf/2 x kj/2

 = uf kj/4

 i.e., qm =uf kj/4

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed- Flow Relationship cont’d

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Speed- Flow- Density Relationship

 Figure: Generalized relationships (also called Fundamental diagram) among

speed, density, and flow rate on uninterrupted-flow facilities (Baerwald, 1976)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Microscopic Models
 Spacing &Headway
 Spacing (s)
 Defined as the distance between successive vehicles in a traffic
stream as measured from front bumper to front bumper.
 Spacings of vehicles in a traffic lane can be generally observed
from aerial photographs.
 The average spacing and density are related as;

 s=1/k (m/veh)
 Headway (h)
 Corresponding time between successive vehicles as they pass a
point on a roadway.
 Headways of vehicles can be measured using stopwatch
observations as vehicles pass a point on a lane
 The average headway and flow rate are related as;
 h=1/q (sec/veh)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Spacing &Headway

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Occupancy
 A measure used in freeway surveillance (fraction of time that
vehicles are present at a point in space).

 It is a useful measure of traffic flow which can only be measured if

a detector is installed at a specific point on a carriageway.
 Can also be defined as the total time a detector is occupied divided
by the total time of observation, and is given by;

 where =the detection time of the ℎ vehicle

 T= total time of observation
 For practical purposes the relationship between density and
occupancy is linear, and can be used interchangeably in the
presentation and interpretation of data.
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 Transportation System Analysis
 Clearance and Gap
 Correspond to parameters of spacing (m) and headway (sec)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Clearance and Gap cont’d
 Correspond to parameters of spacing (m) and headway (sec)
 g=h-(L/v) and

 c=g x v

 where;

 g = mean gap (sec)

 L = mean length of vehicles (m)
 c = mean clearance (m)
 h = mean headway (sec)
 v = mean speed (m/sec)

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Example 1
Two platoons of cars are timed over a distance of 0.5km.
 Their flows are recorded. The first group is timed at 40
seconds, with the flow at 1350 vehicles per hour. The second
group take 45 seconds, with a flow of 1800 vehicles per hour.
 Determine the maximum flow of the traffic stream.

 Solution
 Calculations;

 Group 1 has an average speed of 45km/h [u=l/t]

 Group 2 has an average speed of 40km/h

 Group 1 k value = 1350/45 = 30v/km [k=q/u]

 Group 2 k value = 1800/40 = 45v/km

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Solution (cont’d)
 To get the relationship between speed and density based on
the above two results, use can use co-ordinate geometry:
 y-y1=m(x-x1)

 where

 m=(y1-y2)/(x1-x2), with y=speed & x=density

 The slope, m, of the line joining the above two results

 = -5/15 = -1/3, y - 45 = -1/3(x - 30)

 y + x/3 = 45 + 10 = 55

 Examining the boundary conditions:

 Free flow speed = 55km/h (at x=0)

 Jam density = 165v/km (i.e. at y = 0)

 Max flow = qm =uf kj/4

 = 55 * 165/4 = 2269 veh/h

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Example 2
 Demonstrate the use of the method of regression analysis in
fitting speed and density data to the macroscopic models for
the data shown in the Table below.

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Solution
 Use excel
y(u)
60
y = -0.528x + 62.55
R² = 0.946
50

40

30 y(u)
Linear (y(u))
20

10

0
0 50 100 150

 From y= a + bx
 a=62.68 (intercept)
 b=-0.53
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 Transportation System Analysis
 Solution cont’d
 Since u = uf-uf k/kj (Greenshield model)
 Then uf = 62.68km/hr and uf/kj = -0.53
 Equation becomes: u=62.68-0.53k
 And kj is 118veh/km (at u =0)
 Therefore; qmax(critical flow) = uf kj /4
 = 118x62.68/4
 =1849veh/hr

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Example 3
 The Table on the next slide gives flows in vehicles/lane/hour
(veh/ln/h) and occupancies (in percent) for uncongested urban
freeway.
 Calculate the correlation for this data and use least squares
regression to estimate the equations for the uncongested
portion of the flow-occupancy relationship.
 Fit two different models:
 1. A linear function q = a +bH where q is the flow and H is the
occupancy in percent &
 2. A power function q = aHb

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Example 3 cont’d

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Example 3 –Solution
Flow q
3000
y = 97.90x + 201
2500 R² = 0.949

2000

1500 Flow q

1000 Linear (Flow q)

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Flow q
3000
y = 147.6x0.896
2500 R² = 0.978

2000

1500 Flow q

1000 Power (Flow q)

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

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 Transportation System Analysis
 Exercise 1
 Consider and analyze the following traffic data & develop various
possible models (use excel)
Time Period q (veh/hr) v (km/hr) Occupancy (%) Density (veh/km)
1 1,620 91 10 17.80
2 1,980 90 11 22.00
3 2,160 90 12 24.00
4 1,620 95 9 17.05
5 1,080 94 7 11.49
6 1,980 87 11 22.76
7 1,440 86 8 16.74
8 1,620 87 10 18.62
9 720 85 3 8.47
10 1,980 93 11 21.29
11 1,260 93 7 13.55
12 1,080 97 6 11.13
13 1,800 93 10 19.35
14 1,440 89 8 16.18
15 1,800 99 9 18.18
16 1,800 95 9 18.95
17 1,620 43 19 37.67
18 900 14 47 64.29
19 900 13 43 69.23

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