WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?

A hypothesis is usually a mere assumption or some supposition to be proved or disproved. But for a researcher hypothesis is
a formal question that he/she intends to resolve. Thus a hypothesis may be defined as a proposition or a set of proposition set forth
as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena either asserted merely as a provisional assumption to
guide some investigation or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.

Quite often a research hypothesis is a predictive statement, capable of being tested by scientific methods, that relates an
independent variable to some dependent variable. For example, statements like the following ones:

“Students who receive counselling will show a greater increase in creativity than students not receiving counselling” Or “the
automobile A is performing as well as automobile B.”

CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPOTHESIS:

A Hypothesis must possess the following characteristics:

(i) Hypothesis should be clear and precise.

(ii) Hypothesis should be capable of being tested. A hypothesis “is testable if other deductions can be made from it which, in
turn, can be confirmed or disproved by observation.”
(iii) Hypothesis should state relationship between variables, if it happens to be a relational hypothesis.
(iv) Hypothesis should be limited in scope and must be specific. A researcher must remember that narrower hypotheses are
generally more testable and he should develop such hypotheses.
(v) Hypothesis should be stated as far as possible in most simple terms so that the same is easily understandable by all
concerned. But one must remember that simplicity of hypothesis has nothing to do with its significance.
(vi) Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts i.e., it must be consistent with a substantial body of established
facts. In other words, it should be one which judges accept as being the most likely.
(vii) Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time.
(viii) Hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for explanation. This means that by using the hypothesis plus
other known and accepted generalizations, one should be able to deduce the original problem condition. Thus hypothesis
must actually explain what it claims to explain; it should have empirical reference.

BASIC CONCEPTS CONCERNING TESTING OF HYPOTHESES

Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis:

In the context of statistical analysis, we often talk about null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis. If we are to compare
method A with method B about its superiority and if we proceed on the assumption that both methods are equally good, then this
assumption is termed as the null hypothesis. As against this, we may think that the method A is superior or the method B is inferior,
we are then stating what is termed as alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is generally symbolized as H0 and the alternative
hypothesis as Ha.

Example: Suppose we want to test the hypothesis that the population mean (µ) is equal to the hypothesised mean (µH0) = 100.

Then we would say that the null hypothesis is that the population mean is equal to the hypothesized mean 100 and symbolically we
can express as:

H0 = µ = µH0 = 100

If our sample results do not support this null hypothesis, we should conclude that something else is true. What we conclude
rejecting the null hypothesis is known as alternative hypothesis. In other words, the set of alternatives to the null hypothesis is
referred to as the alternative hypothesis. If we accept H0, then we are rejecting Ha and if we reject H0, then we are accepting Ha.
 The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are chosen before the sample is drawn (the researcher must avoid the
error of deriving hypotheses from the data that he collects and then testing the hypotheses from the same data). In the choice of
null hypothesis, the following considerations are usually kept in view:

(a) Alternative hypothesis is usually the one which one wishes to prove and the null hypothesis is the one which one wishes to
disprove. Thus, a null hypothesis represents the hypothesis we are trying to reject, and alternative hypothesis represents all
other possibilities.
(b) If the rejection of a certain hypothesis when it is actually true involves great risk, it is taken as null hypothesis because then
the probability of rejecting it when it is true is a (the level of significance) which is chosen very small.
(c) Null hypothesis should always be specific hypothesis i.e., it should not state about or approximately a certain value.

The Level Of Significance:

This is a very important concept in the context of hypothesis testing. It is always some percentage (usually 5%) which should be
chosen with great care, thought and reason. When we take the significance level at 5 per cent, then this implies that H0 will be
rejected when the sampling result (i.e., observed evidence) has a less than 0.05 probability of occurring if H0 is true. In other words,
the 5 per cent level of significance means that researcher is willing to take as much as a 5 per cent risk of rejecting the null
hypothesis when it (H0) happens to be true. Thus the significance level is the maximum value of the probability of rejecting H0 when
it is true and is usually determined in advance before testing the hypothesis.

Decision rule or test of hypothesis:

Given a hypothesis H0 and an alternative hypothesis Ha, we make a rule which is known as decision rule according to which we
accept H0 (i.e., reject Ha) or reject H0 (i.e., accept Ha).

Example: If H0 is that a certain lot is good (i.e., there are very few defective items in it) against Ha, that the lot is not good (there are
too many defective items in it), then we must decide the number of items to be tested and the criterion for accepting or rejecting
the hypothesis. We might test 10 items in the lot and plan our decision saying that if there are none or only 1 defective item among
the 10, we will accept H0 otherwise we will reject H0 (or accept Ha).

Collection of data:

We collect primary data during the course of doing experiments in an experimental research but in case we do research of the
descriptive type and perform surveys, whether sample surveys or census surveys, then we can obtain primary data either through
observation or through direct communication with respondents in one form or another or through personal interviews. there are
several methods of collecting primary data, particularly in surveys and descriptive researches. Important ones are: (i) observation
method, (ii) interview method, (iii) through questionnaires, (iv) through schedules, and (v) other methods which include (a) warranty
cards; (b) distributor audits; (c) pantry audits; (d) consumer panels; (e) using mechanical devices; (f) through projective techniques;
(g) depth interviews, and (h) content analysis.

Analysis of Data:

By analysis we mean the computation of certain indices or measures along with searching for patterns of relationship that exist
among the data groups. Analysis, particularly in case of survey or experimental data, involves estimating the values of unknown
parameters of the population and testing of hypotheses for drawing inferences. Analysis may, therefore, be categorised as
descriptive analysis (study of distributions of one variable) and inferential analysis (Inferential analysis is often known as statistical
analysis).

PROCEDURE FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING

To test a hypothesis means to tell (on the basis of the data the researcher has collected) whether or not the hypothesis
seems to be valid. In hypothesis testing the main question is: whether to accept the null hypothesis or not to accept the null
hypothesis? The various steps involved in hypothesis testing are experimentation, collection of data and analysis: These are
performed in the following ways,
(i) Making a formal statement: The step consists in making a formal statement of the null hypothesis (H0) and also of the alternative
hypothesis (Ha).

(ii) Selecting a significance level: The hypotheses are tested on a pre-determined level of significance and as such the same should
be specified. Generally, in practice, either 5% level or 1% level is adopted for the purpose. The factors that affect the level of
significance are: (a) the magnitude of the difference between sample means; (b) the size of the samples; (c) the variability of
measurements within samples; and (d) whether the hypothesis is directional or non-directional (A directional hypothesis is one
which predicts the direction of the difference between means).

(iii) Deciding the distribution to use: After deciding the level of significance, the next step in hypothesis testing is to determine the
appropriate sampling distribution. The choice generally remains between normal distribution and the t-distribution.

(iv) Selecting a random sample and computing an appropriate value: Another step is to select a random sample(s) and compute an
appropriate value from the sample data concerning the test statistic utilizing the relevant distribution.

(v) Calculation of the probability: Next step is to calculate the probability that the sample result would diverge as widely as it has
from expectations, if the null hypothesis were in fact true.

(vi) Comparing the probability: Yet another step consists in comparing the probability thus calculated with the specified value for α
, the significance level. If the calculated probability is equal to or smaller than the α value in case of one-tailed test (and α/2 in case
of two-tailed test), then reject the null hypothesis (i.e., accept the alternative hypothesis), but if the calculated probability is greater,
then accept the null hypothesis.