Probability

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Lesson 8
probability

(First Semester 2021)

Impossible Even Chance Certain

Unlikely Likely

1 in 5 chance 5 in 6 chance

Let’s Hit These:

At the end of this lesson, the students must have:

 Comprehended the concepts of Statistics;
 Identified the probability of an event.
 Appreciated the different applications of Statistics.

Sources:
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 Probability

Let’s Get Started:

PROBABILITY

The probability of an event refers to the likelihood that the event will occur.

How to Interpret Probability

Mathematically, the probability that an event will occur is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. Notationally, the
Probability of Event E is represented by P(E).

If P(E) equals 0.5,

there is a 50-50
chance that event E
will occur.

Impossible Even Chance Certain

Unlikely Likely

If P(E) equals one,

If P(E) equals zero, 1 in 5 chance 5 in 6 chance
event E will almost
event E will almost definitely occur.
definitely not occur.

If P(E) is close to
one, there is a
If P(E) is close to strong chance that
zero, there is only a event E will occur.
small chance that
event E will occur.

Source of Concepts:
Stat Trek (2020). “What is Probability”. Retrieved from: https://stattrek.com/probability/what-is-probability.aspx?tutorial=prob
Stat Trek was founded by Harvey Berman. All of Stat Trek’s analytical tools and training services are free, accessible to anyone who
visits the website.

Note: Concepts were used with written permission from the author.
 Probability

The probability of an event occuring is somewhere between Impossible and Certain or between 0 and 1.

We can use fractions or decimals or percents in presenting probability.

Fractions

Decimals

Percents

Source:
Pierce, Rod. (18 Apr 2020). "Math is Fun". Math Is Fun. Retrieved 6 Jul 2020 from http://www.mathsisfun.com/index.htm
Note: Concepts were used with written permission from the author.
 Probability

Important Terms:
Sample Space (S) – is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Sample Point or Point – is the possible outcome or element of the set.

Note:
n(S) = number of all possible outcomes

a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin

Head
There are 2 possible outcomes when
1 coin is tossed. Hence, n(S) = 2.
Tail

S = {h , t}

b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins

1st coin 2nd t coin

Head, Head

Tail, Tail There are 4 possible outcomes when

2 coins are tossed. Hence, n(S) = 4.
Head, Tail

Tail, Head

S = { (h, h), (t , t), (h, t), (t, t)}

c. Experiment: Rolling a Die

There are 6 possible outcomes when
a die is rolled. Hence, n(S) = 6.

S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) A die has 6 faces numbered

from 1 to 6.
 Probability

Event (E) – is any subset of a sample space.

Note:
n(E) = number of ways the event will
a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin happen
1. The event that a “head” appears
E = {h }

2. The event that a “tail” appears

E = {t}
Illustration: The number of event that a head appears is 1.
Hence, n(E) = 1

The number of event that a tail appears is 1.

Hence, n(E) = 1

b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins

1. The event that a “head” appears in the first coin
E = { (h, h), (h,t }
Illustration:
There are 2 ways the event
will happen. Thus n(E) = 2.

2. The event that a “no head” appears

E = {t, t}

There is only 1 way the event

will happen. Thus n(E) = 1.


 Probability

c. Experiment: Rolling a Die

1. The event of getting a “3”
E = {3}

2. The event that the number shown is odd

E = {1, 3, 5}

There are 3 ways the event will

happen. Thus n(E) = 3.

  

When we say "Event" we mean one (or more) outcomes.

 Getting a Tail when tossing a coin is an event.
 Rolling a "5" is an event.
 Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings) is also an event.
 Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6) is an event.

Source:
Pierce, Rod. (27 Mar 2020). "About Math is Fun". Math Is Fun. Retrieved 6 Jul 2020 from http://www.mathsisfun.com/aboutmathsisfun.html

RECALL!!!

The probability of an event is a number describing the chance that the event will happen.
 An event that is certain to happen has a probability of 1.
 An event that cannot possibly happen has a probability of zero.
 If there is a chance that an event will happen, then its probability is between zero and 1.

Events that are certain:

1. If it is Thursday, the probability that tomorrow is Friday is certain, therefore the probability is 1.

2. If you are sixteen, the probability of you turning seventeen on your next birthday is 1. This is a certain
event.

Events that are uncertain:

 The probability that tomorrow is Friday if today is Monday is 0.

 The probability that you will be seventeen on your next birthday, if you were just born is 0.

Source:
Dickerson, L. retrieved from http://jwilson.coe.uga.edu/emt668/EMAT6680.Folders/Dickerson/probability/titled.html
 Probability

P (E) – Probability of an Event

For examples a, b and

c, you refer to the
Examples: previous illustrations
on how to identify
a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin n(E) and n(S).
The probability of a tail to show is ½.

b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins

The probability of getting a “head” in the first coin is 2/4 or ½.

c. Experiment: Rolling a Die

The probability of a “3” to appear is 1/6.

Additional Examples
1. Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is less than 13.
Solution:
The sample space S of two dice is shown below. There are 36 possible outcomes when 2
dice are rolled. Hence, n(S) = 36.
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
The highest sum is 12. Thus, all other
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6) paired numbers have a sum less than 13.
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) } Hence, n(E) = 36.

2. A die is rolled and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an odd number and the coin
shows a head.
Solution:
Let H be the head and T be the tail of the coin. The sample space S of the experiment described is as
follows:
S = { (1,H), (2,H), (3,H), (4,H), (5,H), (6,H), 1,T), (2,T), (3,T), (4,T), (5,T), (6,T)}
There are 12 possible
outcomes when a die is
rolled and a coin is tossed.
Hence, n(S) = 12.

Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number and the coin shows a head".
E= {(1,H), (3,H), (5,H)} Event E may be described as shown. Hence, n(E) = 3.
 Probability

3. A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is drawn from the jar at
random, what is the probability that this marble is white?
Solution
We first construct a table of frequencies that gives the marbles color distributions as follows

Color Frequency
red 3
green 7
white 10
Total 20

4. The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood, 65 have B blood type, 70
have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a person from this group is selected at random, what is the
probability that this person has O blood type?
Solution
We construct a table of frequencies for the blood groups as follows
Group Frequency

A 50

B 65
O 70

AB 15

Total 200

Exercises
a) A die is rolled, find the probability that the number obtained is greater than 4.
b) Two coins are tossed, find the probability that one head only is obtained.
c) Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is equal to 5.
d) A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of getting the King of heart.

Answers to above exercises

a) 2 / 6 = 1 / 3
b) 2 / 4 = 1 / 2
c) 4 / 36 = 1 / 9
d) 1 / 52

Source:
Dendane, A. (2020) Retrieved from: https://www.analyzemath.com/statistics/probability_questions.html
Note: Concepts were used with written permission from the author.
 Probability

Let’s Do This:
Activity No. 11

Activity No. 11
Probability of an Event
Name: ______________________________ Score: ___________

1. On a six-sided die, each side has a number between 1 and 6. What is the probability of throwing a 3 or a 4?
A. 1 in 6
B. 1 in 3
C. 1 in 2
D. 1 in 4

2. Three coins are tossed up in the air, one at a time. What is the probability that two of them will land heads
up and one will land tails up?
A. 0
B. 1/8
C. 1/4
D. 3/8

3. There are 6 blue marbles, 3 red marbles, and 5 yellow marbles in a bag. What is the probability of selecting
a blue or red marble on the first draw?
A. 1/3
B. 4/7
C. 8/14
D. 9/14

4. 10. If a bag of balloons consists of 47 white balloons, 5 yellow balloons, and 10 black balloons, what is the
approximate likelihood that a balloon chosen randomly from the bag will be black?
A. 19%
B. 16%
C. 21%
D. 33%

5. A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is drawn from the jar at
random, what is the probability that this marble is red?
A. 3/7
B. 3/10
C. 3/3
D. 3/20

6. A die is rolled, find the probability that the number obtained is greater than 4.
A. 4/6
B. 2/6
C. 3/6
D. 1/6

7. A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained.

A. 1/2
B. 1/4
C. 3/4
D. 1/3

8. Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is equal to 1.
A. 1/2
B. 1/4
C. 3/4
D. 0

9. Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is equal to 4.
A. 3/36
B. 4/36
C. 5/36
D. 1/36
 Probability

Events can be:

1. Independent (each event is not affected by other events),

Examples in the previous pages are considered independent.

2. Dependent (also called "Conditional", where an event is affected by other events)

Example: Drawing 2 cards from a Deck

After taking one card from the deck there are less cards available, so the probabilities

change!

Experiment: Getting a King in a Deck of Cards.

For the 1st card the chance of drawing a King is 4 out of 52.

But for the 2nd card:

 If the 1st card was a King, then the 2nd card is less likely to be a King, as only 3 of the 51 cards
left are Kings.

 If the 1st card was not a King, then the 2nd card is slightly more likely to be a King, as 4 of the
51 cards left are King.

This is because we are removing cards from the deck.

3. Mutually Exclusive (events can't happen at the same time)

It is either one or the other, but not both

Examples:

 Turning left or right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time)

 Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive

 Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive

What isn't Mutually Exclusive?

 Kings and Hearts are not Mutually Exclusive, because we can have a King of Hearts!

Like here:

Source:
Pierce, Rod. (18 Apr 2020). "Math is Fun". Math Is Fun. Retrieved 6 Jul 2020 from http://www.mathsisfun.com/index.htm
Note: Concepts were used with written permission from the author.
 Probability

Permutation
A permutation of r objects from a set of n objects is an arrangement without repitition of r objects from the set of
n objects.

In symbols, we denote permutation of n objects taken r at a time an nPr or Prn

nPr = n ( n - 1 )( n – 2 )…( n – r + 1) must be the last number/factor

nPn = n!

Examples

A. Given: X = {1, 2, 3}
In how many ways can we arrange these digits?
a. One at a time
By illustration: {1}, {2}, {3}
By use of formula: 3P1 = (3-1+1) = 3
b. Two at a time
By illustration: {1,2}, {1,3}, {2,1}, {2,3}, {3,1}, {3,2}
By use of formula: 3P2 = 3(2) = 6
c. Three at a time
By use of formula: 3P3 = 3! = 3(2)(1) = 6

nPr = n!
(n – r)! Another formula

The number of permutations of n elements taken n at a time with n 1 elements alike, n2 of another kind alike and
so on, is expressed as:

n!
----------------------
n1 ! n2 !...

B. The number of permutations of the word “abscissa”

“a” appears two times
“s” appears three times
“b”, “c”, and “I” appear once

Permutation of “abscissa” = 8! = 3360

2! 3! 1! 1! 1!
 Probability

Combination
n
The combination of n objects taken r at a time maybe expressed symbolically as nCr or C r.

nCr = n! .
(n – r)! r!

In combination, the order of the elements or element does not matter.

A. In how many ways may the digits 1, 2, 3, and 4 be listed two at a time?

4C2 = 4! .
(4 – 2)! 2!

4C2 = 4(3)(2)(1) = 6
2! 2!

Illustration:
{1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {2,3}, {2,4}, {3,4}

B. Twelve members of a club will form different committees of 3 members each. How many committes can
be found.

12C3 = 12! .
(12 – 3)! 3!

12C3 = 12! = 12(11)(10)(9!) = 220 committes

9! 3! 9! 3!