Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Fundamental analysis is a method of determining a stock's intrinsic
value.
Fundamental analysts search for stocks trading at prices higher or
lower than their real value.
If the fair market value exceeds the market price, the stock is deemed
undervalued, and a buy recommendation is given.
If the fair market value is lower than the market price, the stock is
overvalued, and the recommendation might be not to buy or to sell if
the stock is held.
In contrast, technical analysts favor studying the historical price trends
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of the stock to predict short-term future trends.
Fundamental Analysis
Investopedia / Paige McLaughlin
This approach to the market often allows you to see behind investor sentiment
and company marketing to determine whether the company has the potential
for long-term success. With fundamental analysis, you can then gauge if the
security's market price is over- or undervalued.
Ultimately, fundamental analysis aims to give you a number, a value, for the
company you can use when buying, holding, or selling stocks. It requires a
comprehensive understanding of financial statements and a strategic view of
how external factors could impact the company's future earnings and market
position.
Finally, fundamental analysis can help you spot red flags and overvalued
investments. By researching a company's financial health and market position,
investors can more easily avoid stocks that may be more likely to underperform
or experience significant downturns. This is especially important during
economic uncertainty or market volatility when a company's underlying
strength can be the difference between weathering the storm and being pushed
out of the market altogether.
Company filings: Public companies are required to file regular reports with
the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), such as Form 10-K (annual
report), Form 10-Q (quarterly report), and Form 8-K (current events report).
These filings contain detailed financial statements, management
discussions and analyses, and other important information about the
company. You can access these filings for free on the SEC's EDGAR database.
Company website: Most publicly traded companies have an investor
relations section that provides financial statements, earnings releases,
investor presentations, and other relevant information for shareholders and
potential investors. Transcripts of earnings reports can be particularly
helpful since company leads typically find it necessary to address company
soft spots for journalists.
Financial platforms: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance, and MarketWatch,
among others, provide financial news, analysis, and fundamental data on
publicly traded companies, including financial statements, key ratios, and
analyst ratings.
Broker research reports: Many brokerage firms supply research reports on
companies they and their affiliates cover, often with detailed fundamental
analysis and investment recommendations.
Financial data providers: Subscription-based financial data providers such
as Bloomberg, FactSet, and Morningstar offer extensive fundamental data
and analysis on companies, industries, and markets. Subscriptions are often
pricey, so they are more typically used by professional investors and
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analysts.
Industry trade journals: Trade publications covering specific industries can
provide valuable insights on industry trends, competitive dynamics, and
company-specific developments that inform your fundamental analysis.
FAST FACT
Fundamental analysis is used most often for stocks, but it can be
useful for evaluating any security, from a bond to a derivative. If you
consider the fundamentals, from the broader economy to the
company details, you are doing a fundamental analysis.
1. Start with the CEO's letter to shareholders: This section gives an overview
of the company's performance, key developments, and outlook from the
perspective of top management. Pay attention to the tone and content of
the letter, as it can give insights into the company's strategy, challenges,
and prospects.
2. Review the business description: This section describes the company's
main products or services, target markets, competitive advantages, and key
risks. It can help you understand the company's business model and the
factors that drive its success.
3. Analyze the management's discussion and analysis (MD&A): The MD&A
provides a detailed discussion of the company's financial performance,
including revenue and expense trends, cash flows, and key financial ratios.
It also has management's perspective on the factors that affect the
company's performance and outlook for the future.
4. Examine the financial statements: The annual report has the company's
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audited financial statements, including the income statement, balance
sheet, and statement of cash flows. Review these carefully while looking for
trends in revenue, expenses, profits, assets, liabilities, and cash flows. From
there, you can compute the critical financial ratios.
5. Read the notes to the financial statements: The notes (or footnotes)
provide additional details and explanations about the company's
accounting policies, significant transactions, and other important
information that may not be clear from the financial statements alone.
6. Review the auditor's report: This provides an independent opinion on
whether the financial statements fairly present the company's financial
position and performance following generally accepted accounting
principles. Look for any qualified opinions or disclaimers that may indicate
potential issues.
7. Analyze the company's corporate governance: The annual report often has
information on the company's board of directors, executive compensation,
and other corporate governance matters. Consider whether the company's
governance practices align with the interests of shareholders and whether
there are any red flags, such as conflicts of interest or excessive
compensation.
8. Look for additional disclosures: The annual report may include additional
disclosures about legal proceedings, regulatory issues, or environmental,
social, and governance (ESG) factors that could impact the company's
performance and reputation.
The cash flow statement is crucial because it's harder for a business to
manipulate its cash situation. An aggressive accountant can do plenty of things
to manipulate earnings, for example, but it's tough to fake cash in the bank. For
this reason, some investors use the cash flow statement as a more conservative
measure of a company's performance.
FAST FACT
A "balance sheet" gets its name because the three sections it
contains—assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity—must
balance out using this formula:
FAST FACT
Fundamental analysis relies on using financial ratios drawn from
data on corporate financial statements to make inferences about a
company's value and prospects.
The Business Model: What exactly does the company do? This isn't always
straightforward. If a company's business model is based on selling fast-food
chicken, is it making its money that way? Or is it coasting on royalty and
franchise fees?
Competitive Advantage: A company's long-term success is primarily driven
by its ability to maintain its competitive advantage. Competitive advantages,
such as Coca-Cola Co.'s (KO) brand name and Microsoft Corporation's
(MSFT) long domination of the personal computer operating system, create
a moat around a business, allowing it to keep competitors at bay and enjoy
growth and profits.
Management Team: Some think management is the most important
criterion for investing in a company. This makes sense: Even the best
business model is doomed if the company's leaders fail to execute the plan
properly. While it's hard for retail investors to meet and truly evaluate
managers, you can look at the corporate website and check the resumes of
the top brass and the board members. How well did they do in previous
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jobs? Have they been unloading a lot of their stock shares lately?
Corporate Governance and Board Structure: These are provided by the
policies within an organization indicating the relationships and
responsibilities among management, directors, and stakeholders. These
policies are defined and determined in the company charter, its bylaws, and
corporate laws and regulations. You want to do business with a company
that is run ethically, fairly, transparently, and efficiently. Note whether
management respects shareholder rights and shareholder interests. Ensure
their communications to shareholders are transparent and understandable.
If you don't get it, if there are major issues you know surround the company
and they aren't addressed, it's not a sign that they have good answers for
you.
Industry Trends: It's also important to consider a company's industry: its
customer base, market share among firms, industrywide growth,
competition, regulation, and business cycles. Learning how the industry
works will give an investor a deeper understanding of a company's financial
health.
Stakeholder Satisfaction: Employees, managers, customers, suppliers,
investors, and other stakeholders should all have positive views on the
company and its prospects. Without that, a company's brand equity and
image can suffer, which can lead to fewer sales, lower profits, and flagging
share prices.
Lower ratios may indicate that the stock Price-to-book Market Price per Share
is undervalued, while higher ratios may (P/B) ratio / Book Value per Share
suggest that it is overvalued.
A major distinction is where "value" comes from. For technical analysts, the
market sets prices, and hence, the changes there give a company its value. For
fundamental analysts, there is an intrinsic value that the market can often miss.
Technical Analysis
• Looks at price and market trends to uncover market psychology
• Considers historical prices and chart patterns
• Shorter-term focus (days/weeks)
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• Best for short-term or swing trading
First, let's look at some data from ABC Inc.'s financial statements for the
previous fiscal year:
. ------------------
. Liabilities
. Non-Current 250
Liabilities
.
ABC Income Statement & Balance Sheet TRADE
Financing $150 .
Profitability Ratios:
ABC Inc.'s profitability ratios suggest that the company is generating healthy
profits from its operations. Its gross margin is 40%, operating margin is 20%,
and net margin is 15%. Its ROA and ROE of 10% and 15%, respectively, indicate
that the company is generating solid returns on its assets and equity.
Liquidity Ratios:
Assuming ABC Inc.'s current assets are $750 million, with $200 million in cash,
$150 million in marketable securities, and $200 million in accounts receivable,
and its current liabilities are $250 million, the company's liquidity ratios are
strong. A current ratio of 3.0 and a quick ratio of 2.2 suggest that ABC Inc. has
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ample liquidity to cover its short-term obligations.
Solvency Ratios:
ABC Inc.'s solvency ratios indicate that the company has a manageable level of
debt relative to its equity and assets. A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5 and a debt-to-
assets ratio of 0.33 suggest that the company is not overly leveraged and has
the financial flexibility to meet its long-term obligations.
Valuation Ratios (Assuming ABC Inc. has 100 million shares outstanding and its
stock price is $25 per share):
ABC Inc.'s valuation ratios suggest that the company's stock is trading at a
reasonable valuation relative to its earnings, book value, and sales. A P/E ratio
of 16.67 aligns with the broader market, while P/B and P/S ratios of 2.5 indicate
that the stock is not overly expensive relative to the company's assets and
revenue.
Competitive Advantages:
Has strong brand recognition in its industry and high customer loyalty
Proprietary technology that differentiates its products from
competitors
Efficient supply chain and distribution network, enabling faster
delivery and lower costs
Management Quality:
It has an experienced management team with a proven track record of
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success.
The CEO has been with the company for 15 years and has led the
company through several periods of growth.
Management has demonstrated a commitment to creating new goods
and services and has strategic investments in research and
development.
Industry Trends:
Growth Prospects:
ABC Inc. has a robust pipeline of new products set to launch in the
next 12-18 months.
The company has been expanding into new geographic markets and
plans to enter two new countries next year.
Recent acquisitions have provided opportunities for synergies and
increased market share.
Corporate Governance:
ESG Factors:
ABC Inc. has set ambitious targets for reducing its carbon footprint
and increasing its use of renewable energy.
The company is committed to diversity, equity, and inclusion, with
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programs in place to promote a diverse workforce.
ABC Inc. engages with local communities and supports various
philanthropic initiatives.
Financial ratios generated from financial reports and government industry and
economic reports are used to assess a company. Not every analyst uses the
same tools or views stocks similarly—you might determine a stock is valued
differently than another analyst. What's important is that the stock you analyze
meets your criteria for value and that your analysis creates actionable
information.
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Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
2 Absolute Value
NEXT UP
3 Relative Valuation
11 Qualitative Analysis
Related Terms
What Are Fundamentals? Types, Common Analysis Ratios,
and Example
Fundamentals consist of the basic qualitative and quantitative information that underlies
a company or other organization's financial and economic position. more
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