Thayer Consultancy

Monthly Report June 2024

Carlyle A. Thayer
Director
 1

Thayer Consultancy
Australian Business Number
ABN 65 648 097 123

P.O. Box 435

Jamison Centre
Macquarie, A.C.T. 2614
Australia
+61 (02) 6251 1849

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other
research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small
business in Australia in 2002.
 2

Table of Contents

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs .......................................................................................................... 2

Publications ................................................................................................................................................... 4

Publications In Press ...................................................................................................................................... 4

Thayer Consultancy Publications ................................................................................................................... 4

Presentations ................................................................................................................................................ 4

Consultations ................................................................................................................................................ 4

Peer Reviews ................................................................................................................................................. 5

TV Interviews ................................................................................................................................................ 5

Media Interviews........................................................................................................................................... 5

Media Extracts............................................................................................................................................... 7

Future Commitments................................................................................................................................... 28

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs

[archived at Scribd.com]
1. “China Coast Guard Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 1, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/740864343/Thayer-
China-Coast-Guard-Administrative-Law-Enforcement-Procedures.
2. “U.S. Defense Secretary to Visit Cambodia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 3,
2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/744808073/Thayer-US-Defense-Secretary-to-
Visit-Cambodia.
3. “China, International Law and Responsibilities as a Major Power,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 6, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/740864684/Thayer-
China-International-Law-and-Responsibilities-as-a-Major-Power.
4. “Vietnam Elects New Minister of Public Security,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 7, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/744545399/Thayer-Vietnam-Elects-
New-Minister-of-Public-Security.
5. “Gauging the Power of To Lam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 12, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/744545596/Thayer-Gauging-the-Power-of-To-Lam.
6. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 1,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 12, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter
7. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 14, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter.
 3

8. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 3,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 14, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter.
9. “Déjà vu: The Philippines Claims Extended Continental Shelf,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 15, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/744808451/Thayer-De-ja-vu-The-Philippines-
Claims-Extended-Continental-Shelf.
10. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 4,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 16, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter
11. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 5,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 18, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter
12. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 6,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 18, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter
13. “Russia’s Putin to Visit Vietnam: Scene Setter – 7,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 18, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/743300704/Thayer-Russia-s-Putin-to-
Visit-Vietnam-Scene-Setter.
14. “Can Vietnam Balance between Russia and the Rest?” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, June 20, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/744005194/Thayer-Can-
Vietnam-Balance-Between-Russia-and-the-Rest.
15. “Who Will Escalate First at Second Thomas Shoal?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 20, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/744808731/Thayer-Who-Will-
Escalate-First-at-Second-Thomas-Shoal.
16. “Putin’s Visit to Vietnam – Quick Take,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 20,
2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/744029632/Thayer-Putin-s-Visit-to-Vietnam-
Quick-Take.
17. “Russia and Vietnam on Defence and Security Cooperation,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 20, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/744030077/Thayer-Russia-and-Vietnam-on-
Defence-and-Security-Cooperation.
18. “Vietnam’s Leadership: Better Red than Expert?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
June 26, 2024. https://www.scribd.com/document/746644199/Thayer-Vietnam-s-
Leadership-Better-Red-Than-Expert.
19. “Does Political Loyalty Trump Expertise in Vietnam’s Politburo?” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 27, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/746644665/Thayer-Does-Political-Loyalty-Trump-
Expertise-in-Vietnam-s-Politburo.
 4

Publications
Carl Thayer , “Bức tranh đối ngoại lớn của Việt Nam (Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Mosaic),”
Nhat Dang, Tuổi trẻ, June 21, 2024, 1 and 3; and https://tuoitre.vn/buc-tranh-doi-ngoai-lon-
cua-viet-nam-20240621093929212.htm.

Publications In Press
“All Hands on Deck: Vietnam Embraces the Blue Economy,” in Rosalie Arcala Hall and Alex
Tan, eds., Maritime Security and Blue Economy in Southeast Asia. Singapore: World Scientific
Publishing, 2024.
“India’s Neighbourhood Policy,” FPRC Journal (Foreign Policy Research Centre, New Delhi) No.
57, 2024.
“South China Sea: International Law Perspectives,” in Rahul Mishra, ed., Navigating
Complexities: Building Regional Trust and Stability in the South China Sea. Kuala Lumpur:
Centre for ASEAN Regionalism, Universiti Malaya and EU Policy and Outreach Partnership,
EU Delegation to ASEAN, 2024.

Thayer Consultancy Publications

Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – May 2024 (Canberra: June 2, 2024).
https://www.scribd.com/document/738388405/Thayer-Consultancy-Monthly-Report-5-
May-2024.

Presentations
“What Constitutes an Armed Attack that Would Invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty?” The
West Philippine Sea CATCH, Season 4 Episode 6, Webinar hosted by The National Youth
Movement for the West Philippine Sea, Manila, June 29, 2024.
https://www.scribd.com/document/746627075/Thayer-What-Constitutes-an-Armed-
Attack-that-Would-Invoke-the-Philippines-US-Mutual-Defense-Treaty.

Consultations
• Angela Nguyen, Australia-Vietnam Policy Institute, Visiting Fellow invitation, June 3, 2024.
• Lorina P., invitation to address "China's International Law Violation Postures in the South
China Sea: Nine-Dash Line and the Stance of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan,"
discussion session on Human Rights Violations and International Law Infringement, The
Court of the Citizens of the World, Cinema for Peace Foundation, The Hague on 11 July
2024, June 6, 2024.
• “Fifty Years of ASEAN-Australia Relations: Perspectives from ASEAN Heads of Mission
(Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore),” Australian Institute of International Affairs, ACT
Branch, Deakin, June 13, 2024.
• Angela Nguyen, Australia-Vietnam Policy Institute, Visiting Fellow invitation follow up,
June 13, 2024.
 5

• National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea, General Assembly Part 2, Zoom,
Manila, June 15, 2024.
• Book Launch, Professor A. J. S. Reid opening remarks on Li Tana’s A Maritime Vietnam:
From Earliest Times to the Nineteenth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
2024), Asia Bookroom, Macquarie, ACT, June 22, 2024.
• Preliminary organizational meeting, Yale Club of Canberra, Tilley Devine Café, Lyneham,
ACT, June 29, 2024.

Peer Reviews
“Prologue,” Vivian Louis Forbes, Malaysia’s Maritime Jurisdictional Limits: An Appraisal
(Springer Nature: 2024), p. 20.
“Relational Inequality: Hierarchy and Kinship in Vietnam’s China Policy,” International
Relations of the Asia-Pacific. Submitted June 5, 2024.

TV Interviews
Channel News Asia (Singapore), Interview with Carlyle Thayer, What does Russian President
Putin want out of his visit to Vietnam? CNA TV, Asia First Program, June 20, 2024,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE3PDk4DBT0.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ABC News, ABC TV, June 20, 2024.
https://capture.dropbox.com/q753q7BLmbzLc9ic and
http://isentia.co/0/zhR3v1RWx9z6?id=R00110606854&channel=ABC%20News&location=Au
stralia&date=2024-06-
20T10%3A20%3A46&keywords=Canberra&keywords=Of%20New%20South%20Wales&key
words=University&startFrom=2024-06-20T00:23:10.000Z.
Al Jazeera English, Interview with Carl Thayer University of New South Wales Canberra,
Laura Kyle, Inside Story, Can Putin's diplomacy help him counter Western isolation, June 21,
2024. https://youtu.be/VZpB3L750n0?si=dalQX3FUlik_bCjT and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZpB3L750n0.

Media Interviews
1. Duong Khang, Báo Pháp Luật TP Hồ Chí Minh, June 1, 2024.
2. Suy Se, correspondent, Agence France-Presse, Phnom Penh, June 3, 2024.
3. Duong Khang, Báo Pháp Luật TP Hồ Chí Minh, June 6, 2024.
4. Mike Firn, Radio Free Asia, June 7, 2024.
5. Rebecca Tan, The Washington Post, June 11, 2024.
6. Le Nguyen, Voice of America Vietnamese Service, June 12, 2024.
7. Cao Nguyên, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese Service, June 12, 2024.
8. Alice Philipson, Vietnam Bureau Chief, Agence France-Presse, June 14, 2024.
 6

9. Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, Hanoi, June 14, 2024.

10. Michaela del Callar, GMA News, Manila, June 15 2024.
11. Keigo Matsushita, Kyodo News Agency, June 16, 2024.
12. Nicole Bastian, foreign editor, Handelsblatt, June 18, 2024.
13. Natalia Portyakova, journalist, Kommersant, June 18, 2024.
14. Zhou Yifei, journalist, Lianhe Zaobao, June 18, 2024.
15. Philip Heijmans, Bloomberg, June 19, 2024.
16. John Boudreau, Bloomberg, June 19, 2024.
17. Bac Pham and Bernnet Murray, South China Morning Post, June 19, 2020.
18. Channel News Asia (CNA) TV, Singapore, June 20. 2024.
19. ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) TV, June 20, 2024.
20. Dư Nhật Đăng, Reporter, Tuổi Trẻ newspaper, June 20, 2024.
21. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, June 20, 2024.
22. Kay Johnson, Reuters, June 20, 2024.
23. David Hutt, June 20, 2024.
24. Laura Kyle, Al Jazeera TV English, Inside Story, June 21, 2024.
25. Bui Thu, BBC Vietnamese Service, London, June 26, 2024.
26. Bui Thu, BBC Vietnamese Service, London, June 27, 2024.

Thayer In the Media June 2024

Interviews: 26
Trending: Putin’s visit to Vietnam, China-Philippines clash in South China Sea, China’s Coast
Guard Administrative Procedures regulations, Philippines claims extended continental shelf,
US Defense Secretary visits Cambodia, Vietnam: To Lam’s power base, Vietnam’s national
security setting, Vietnam new Minister of Public Security
Radio interviews: Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Asia Vietnamese Service, Voice of America
Vietnamese Service
TV interviews: ABC TV (Sydney), Aljazeera TV, CNA TV (Singapore)
Media interviews: Agence France-Presse, Bloomberg, GMA News, Handelsblatt, Hanoi Times,
Kommersant, Kyodo News Agency, Lianhe Zaobao, Reuters, South China Morning Post, Stars
and Stripes, The Washington Post
Vietnamese Media interviews: Báo Pháp Luật TP Hồ Chí Minh, Tuổi Trẻ
Quoted by: Agence France-Presse, Al Jazeera English, ASB Zeitung, Asia One, Bangladesh
Sangbad Sangstha (National News Agency of Bangladesh), Barron’s, BDNews24, Bloomberg,
BSS News, Business Standard, CE Noticias Financieras, Channel News Asia, Cyprus Mail, The
Cyprus Weekly, Daiji World (Mangalore), Daily Sun (Dhaka), Daily Tribune, Deutsche Presse-
Agentur, Deutsche Welle, Devdiscourse, Dimsum Daily (Hong Kong), The Economic Times, The
 7

Edge Malaysia, EurActiv.com, Fiji Broadcasting Corp., The Financial Express,

GlobalSecurity.org, GMA Network, Gulf Times, The Hans India, India TV News, Indo-Asian
News Service (IANS), International Business Times, Irish Independent, The Japan Times, Japan
Today, Jiji Press, KAYU-TV, Korean Central News Agency, Kyiv Post, Manila Standard, Morung
Express (Dimapur), The Moscow Times, MSN (MicroSoft Network), Naija247News (Lagos),
New Vision, The Punch, Punjab News Express (Chandigarh), RBC-Ukraine, Reuters, RTÉ News,
The Sentinel, Sky News, Seychelles News Agency, South China Morning Post, Strat News
Global (New Delhi, Süddeutsche Zeitung, SwissInfo.ch, Telangana Today (Hyderabad), Think
China, Time Magazine, Times of India, TRT (Turkish Radio Television) World, Vanguard News
(Lagos), Wirtschaft Woche, Ya Libnan, Yahoo.com, Yahoo/News, Yonhap News Agency

Media Extracts*
Dien Bien Phu Victory – More than triumph: Carl Thayer
Vietnam has defined the “bamboo diplomacy” strategy as flexibility, in which the country
pursues its strategic goals while remaining firm and uncompromising on fundamental
principles.
The surrender of the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu in 1954 led to three Vietnamese
victories, according to Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales
(UNSW), Canberra.
The first was military. It’s the comprehensive defeat of French forces in battle and the
emergence of the Vietnam People’s Army as a conventional armed force.
The second victory was diplomatic, as it led to the establishment of the Democratic Republic
of Vietnam as an independent state. And the third one was strategic as it as it brought an end
to the nine-year Anti-French Resistance War and French colonialism in Indochina.
The Dien Bien Phu campaign has also taught some lessons that are very important for
“Vietnam’s foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, peace, cooperation, and
development,” the scholar said.
In this regard, the Dien Bien Phu campaign proved the efficacy of people’s war through the
political and military mobilization of the population to oppose foreign aggression. At the same
time, the Dien Bien Phu campaign underscored the importance of creating a regular armed
force supported by military assistance from fraternal countries.
The lesson from the Dien Bien Phu campaign is the need for Vietnam to identify and
strategically pursue them clearly. Support from allies and fraternal countries is a necessary
but not sufficient condition for Vietnam to achieve its objectives because there will always be
differences in national interests between Vietnam and its allies and traditional friends.
Vietnam has codified this approach in the expression “bamboo diplomacy” – being firm and
unyielding on basic principles, but flexible in the ways and means of achieving its strategic
objectives.
In talking about the significance of the victory and the price paid for it, Prof. Carl Thayer
stressed the need to educate young people about the Dien Bien Phu milestone. “Schools,

*
May include media extracts not included in previous Thayer Consultancy Monthly Reports.
 8

universities, and mass organizations should conduct educational programs and field trips to
the Dien Bien Phu battlefield to remind the youths of today that Vietnam’s self-reliance and
independence are due to the sacrifice of those who fell to defeat the French,” he stated.
Commenting on the momentum that has helped Vietnam gain its present position and what
should be done further to win more achievements, the expert said “Vietnam must be true to
itself in terms of national identity and national unity while integrating with the global
economy and international system.”
In addition, Vietnam should pursue a proactive leadership role among developing countries –
the so-called Global South – in addressing the challenges of climate change, digital and energy
transformation, economic integration combating pandemics, upholding international law,
promoting multilateralism, and avoiding taking sides in disputes between major powers.
Vietnam’s current momentum and international prestige are based on many factors, namely
long-range strategic planning, economic reform, and global economic integration, a well-
trained professional diplomatic corps, and domestic political stability.
Linh Pham, Hanoi Times, May 7, 2024
https://hanoitimes.vn/dien-bien-phu-victory-more-than-triumph-carl-thayer-326795.html

Ông Tô Lâm sẽ làm Chủ tịch nước kiêm Bộ trưởng công an: tiền lệ và hệ quả?
Mr. To Lam will be the President and Minister of Public Security: precedent and
consequences?
Hầu hết các nhà quan sát đều nói với RFA rằng việc ông Tô Lâm kiêm nhiệm hai vị trí như
vậy không phải là không có tiền lệ. Giáo sư Carl Thayer (Đại học Canberra, Úc) [Professor
Carl Thayer, Canberra University, Australia], cho rằng trường hợp ông Tô Lâm kiêm nhiệm
hai chức vụ đã từng có tiền lệ là ông Tổng bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng kiêm chủ tịch nước sau
khi Trần Đại Quang qua đời. Ông Trọng giữ chức vụ kiêm nhiệm trong hai năm rưỡi (tháng
10 năm 2018-tháng 4 năm 2021). Theo GS. Carl Thayer, ông Lâm cũng sẽ giữ cả hai chức vụ
trong hai năm. Nói cách khác, trường hợp của ông Tô Lâm nên được xem là “sui generic”
tức là “có một không hai.” GS. TS. Nguyễn Văn Chữ (Đại học Houston at Downtown) cũng
chia sẻ một góc nhìn tương tự ông Carl Thayer…
GS Carl Thayer nhận xét rằng quá trình chuyển đổi lãnh đạo hiện nay diễn ra trong bối cảnh
là hệ thống lựa chọn ủy viên Bộ Chính trị của Việt Nam còn rất cứng nhắc: có rất ít sự lựa
chọn vì cứ 5 năm mới chọn một lần khi tổ chức đại hội đảng toàn quốc. Trong trường hợp
hiện tại, tình trạng xơ cứng trở nên trầm trọng hơn khi sáu ủy viên trong số 18 ủy viên ban
đầu được bầu tại Đại hội toàn quốc lần thứ 13 vào năm 2021 đã bị loại bỏ.
Hệ quả gì với kinh tế chính trị Việt Nam?
Trả lời câu hỏi của RFA về những thay đổi trên thượng tầng chính trị Việt Nam có thể gây
ra ảnh hưởng gì với kinh tế và chính trị của Việt Nam trong tương lai, GS Carl Thayer cho
rằng có hai cách nhìn nhận hệ quả của việc ông Tô Lâm kiêm nhiệm chức vụ Chủ tịch nước
và Bộ trưởng Bộ Công an.
Thứ nhất, diễn biến này là một quyết định đúng đắn của Bộ Chính trị, theo GS. Carl Thayer,
vì không có phương án khả thi nào khác. Đầu năm nay, sau khi Chủ tịch nước Võ Văn
Thưởng từ chức, Tô Lâm được cho là đã từ chối bổ sung vị trí trống đó và muốn giữ chức
 9

bộ trưởng công an. Lần này Bộ Chính trị sẽ rất khó buộc Tô Lâm từ chức bộ trưởng để được
bầu làm chủ tịch nước.
Thứ hai, theo GS Carl Thayer, quyết định để Tô Lâm giữ cùng lúc hai chức vụ là một sự thỏa
hiệp nhằm duy trì sự ổn định trong Bộ Chính trị. Ông Tô Lâm hoặc là sẽ nghỉ hưu sau Đại
hội toàn quốc lần thứ XIV hoặc là ông sẽ dùng chức vụ chủ tịch nước làm bước đệm cho
chức vụ tổng bí thư.
Hơn hai mươi năm trước, tháng 8/2002, kỳ họp thứ nhất Quốc hội khóa XI đã có bước đi
chưa từng có là bác bỏ việc thủ tướng chính phủ đề cử Lê Minh Hương làm bộ trưởng công
an. Chúng ta sẽ có nhiều định hướng để quan sát chính trị Việt Nam nếu xem cuộc bỏ phiếu
tại Quốc hội diễn ra như thế nào đối với việc đề cử ông Tô Lâm làm chủ tịch nước. Trong
cuộc bỏ phiếu tín nhiệm năm ngoái, ông đã nhận được 43 phiếu tín nhiệm thấp, xếp ông
vào vị trí thứ 36 trong số 44 quan chức cấp cao được bầu, nhà nghiên cứu chính trị Việt
Nam ở Đại học Canberra nhận định…
GS Carl Thayer cho biết là Đại hội toàn quốc lần thứ 13 đã xác định chỉ tiêu được phân bổ
cho các khối đặc biệt trong Ban Chấp hành Trung ương. Bộ Công an được phân bổ 3% số
ủy viên trong Ban Chấp hành Trung ương và một ghế trong Bộ Chính trị. Quân đội được
phân bổ 13% số ghế trong Ban Chấp hành Trung ương và hai ghế trong Bộ Chính trị.
Về đại diện khối, theo GS. Carl Thayer, một số nhà phân tích nước ngoài đã phân nhóm
một cách sai lầm rằng tất cả các quan chức trong Ban Chấp hành Trung ương từng làm việc
trong Bộ Công an, như thể họ là một nhóm thống nhất, đang tìm cách phát huy quyền lực
của công an trong bộ máy đảng. Theo ông, cần phân biệt rõ giữa người tại ngũ trong Bộ
Công an (ba người trong Ban Chấp hành Trung ương) và những người có sự nghiệp phục
vụ trong Bộ Công an trước khi chuyển sang chức vụ khác.
Theo GS Carl Thayer thì những người xuất thân công an này hành động độc lập với người
lãnh đạo cũ của họ. Ông đưa ra hai ví dụ, thứ nhất là cựu thủ tướng “phóng khoáng”
Nguyễn Tấn Dũng từng làm việc trong Bộ Công an trước khi chuyển sang bộ máy quan liêu
nhà nước. Thứ hai là Thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính làm việc cho Bộ Công an từ năm 1985
đến năm 2011. Sự nghiệp của ông Chính chuyển sang Đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam khi giữ chức
Bí thư Tỉnh ủy Quảng Ninh và Ủy viên Trung ương năm 2011.
Tóm lại, theo GS Carl Thayer, “quyền lực của Bộ Công an chưa chuyển sang Bộ Chính trị.”
Ngoài ra, bất kỳ quyết định quan trọng nào của Bộ Chính trị đều phải được Ban Chấp hành
Trung ương chấp thuận. Trong khi đó, tại BCH Trung ương, 37% số ghế do đại diện
tỉnh/thành phố nắm giữ, GS Carl Thayer lưu ý.
Liệu sự kiện ông Tô Lâm làm chủ tịch nước kiêm nhiệm bộ trưởng công an có thể tạo tiền
lệ cho các bộ trưởng công an tiếp theo không? Liệu các thế hệ bộ trưởng công an tiếp theo
có thể tiếp tục làm được những gì ông Tô Lâm đã làm? Trả lời câu hỏi này của RFA, GS. Carl
Thayer cho rằng trường hợp của Tô Lâm sẽ tạo tiền lệ cho tương lai, chỉ khi ông nghỉ hưu
khi hết nhiệm kỳ, tức là vào tháng 5 năm 2026. Nói cách khác, tiền lệ là chỉ được giữ hai
chức vụ cùng lúc khi có chỗ trống đột xuất. Các Bộ trưởng Bộ Công an tương lai không thể
kỳ vọng sẽ đảm nhiệm hai chức vụ cùng một lúc trong hoàn cảnh bình thường.
Radio Free Asia, May 20, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/to-lam-will-be-president-and-minister-of-
public-security-precedent-and-consequences-05202024140518.html
 10

Chính trường Việt Nam sau khi ông Tô Lâm rời Bộ công an lên vị trí Chủ tịch nước
Politics in Vietnam after Mr. To Lam left the Ministry of Public Security to become President
Đối với các ủy viên xuất thân công an, GS. Carl Thayer ở Đại học Canberra, Úc [Professor
Carl Thayer at the University of Canberra, Australia], cho rằng nhiều người trong số họ đã
rời Bộ Công an và chuyển sang lĩnh vực khác từ lâu, do đó, họ quyết định độc lập chứ không
còn liên quan tới lãnh đạo công an đương nhiệm.
Radio Free Asia, May 22, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/vietnamese-politics-after-mr-to-lam-left-the-
ministry-of-public-security-to-become-president-05222024143021.html

Vietnam appoints top policeman as new president

Political infighting is expected to temporarily abate after Lam’s election, said Carl Thayer,
emeritus professor and Vietnam expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.
But the crucial battle remains to be fought, as the ageing party chief Nguyen Phu Trong’s
Third five-year ends in 2026 – or earlier if he steps down before his mandate expires.
“To Lam could use his position as one of the ‘four pillars’ as a stepping stone to become
general secretary,” said Thayer, referring to the party’s chief job.
Reuters, MSN, June 4, 2024
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vietnam-appoints-top-policeman-as-country-s-
new-president/ar-
BB1mOKH1?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcs
eo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1

US Pentagon Chief Visits Cambodia To Boost Ties With China Ally

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at Australia's University of New South Wales, said
"U.S.-Cambodia relations are at an inflection point after Hun Manet became prime minister."
He said that Austin's visit to Cambodia "signifies that the two sides are willing to jettison some
of their rigid policies restricting defense cooperation and engage in renewed dialogue to seek
common ground."
Agence France Presse, Sue Se, June 4, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Agence France Presse, Actual News Magazine, June 4, 2024
https://actualnewsmagazine.com/english/us-defense-secretary-visits-cambodia/
Agence France Presse, The Economic Times, June 4, 2024
 11

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/us-pentagon-chief-visits-cambodia-
to-boost-ties-with-china-ally/articleshow/110706493.cms?from=mdr
Agence France Presse, International Business Times, June 4, 2024.
Dow Jones Factiva
Agence France Presse and Jiji Press, The Japan Times, June 4, 2024
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/06/04/world/politics/us-pentagon-cambodia-
china/
Agence France Presse and KAYU-TV, June 4, 2024.
Dow Jones Factiva

Philippines must exercise its agency in a ‘rules-broken’ international order

In an East Asia Forum article published in March 2024, Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer of
the University of New South Wales noted that the year 2023 saw the deployment of China’s
Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia in the South China Sea (SCS) “in greater numbers, for
longer periods of time and with more aggression than ever before”.
Thayer also noted a report’s findings that the latter part of 2023 saw a sharp increase in
encounters between Philippine and Chinese vessels during rotation and resupply missions to
Second Thomas or Ayungin Shoal. These incidents include the CCG’s use of water cannons
and blockades to prevent resupply missions.
Elaine C. Tolentino, Think China, June 5, 2024
https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/philippines-must-exercise-its-agency-rules-broken-
international-order

Could China gain from Vietnam’s political infighting and ‘hardline’ tilt?
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia and a
Southeast Asia specialist, said the leadership turmoil was unlikely to affect Vietnam’s foreign
policy and its balancing act between Beijing and Washington.
“Vietnam has been on a steady course of diversifying and multilateralising its foreign relations
for more than three decades. Vietnam has and will continue to go out of its way to develop
all-round cooperative relations with its partners, especially its seven top-tier comprehensive
strategic partners: Russia, China, India, South Korea, the US, Japan and Australia,” he said.
“One indication of Vietnam’s balancing act is that as Chinese exports to the US decline,
Vietnamese exports to the US increase based on a rise in Chinese exports to Vietnam.”
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, June 5, 2024
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3265337/could-china-gain-
vietnams-political-infighting-and-hardline-tilt

Vietnam’s National Assembly appoints new public security minister

 12

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy, advised against
reading too much into To Lam’s choice of successor.
“It is normal procedure to include someone from the public security bloc on the Central
Committee to fill the vacancy of Minister of Public Security,” he said.
“As the head of the Ministry’s Investigative Security Agency Quang is expected to maintain
continuity in the anti-corruption campaign pursued by his former boss.
“Minister Quang has wide recent experience in dealing with counterparts in ASEAN.”
Translated by Anna Vu. Edited by Mike Firn. Updated with comments by Carl Thayer.
Radio Free Asia, June 6, 2024, updated June 7, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/vietnam-luong-tam-quang-
06062024223007.html
Reprinted:
GlobalSecurity.org, June 4, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Việt Nam - Nga cần gì ở nhau trong chuyến thăm sắp tới của Putin?
Vietnam - Russia What do they need from each other during Putin's upcoming visit?
Giáo sư Carl Thayer, nhà nghiên cứu chính trị Việt Nam [Professor Carl Thayer, Vietnamese
political researcher] nhận định, về phía Nga, chuyến thăm Việt Nam của Tổng thống
Vladimir Putin gồm có các mục tiêu chính:
“Đầu tiên, Nga muốn chứng minh cho liên minh phương Tây phản đối sự can thiệp của nước
này vào Ukraine rằng Nga không bị cô lập.
Thứ hai, Nga và Việt Nam sẽ tìm cách củng cố quan hệ kinh tế, đặc biệt là trong lĩnh vực
năng lượng.
Thứ ba, Nga sẽ thúc đẩy Việt Nam cam kết mua sắm vũ khí.
Thứ tư, Việt Nam và Nga sẽ tìm cách tăng cường quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện. Việt
Nam đang tìm kiếm sự đảm bảo rằng quan hệ Nga - Trung sẽ không gây tổn hại đến lợi ích
quốc gia của Việt Nam.”…
Hồi tháng 3/2023, Tổng thống Nga Putin đã bị Tòa án Hình sự Quốc tế (ICC) phát lệnh truy
bắt vì liên quan đến tội ác chiến tranh ở Ukraine. Theo giáo sư Carl Thayer, do Việt Nam
không phải là quốc gia thành viên Công ước Rome về thành lập Tòa án Hình sự Quốc tế; do
đó, Việt Nam không có nghĩa vụ bắt giữ ông Putin.
Radio Free Asia, June 13, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/in_depth/putin-visits-vn-2024-06132024084542.html

Lên chủ tịch nước, thế lực của ông Tô Lâm lớn đến đâu?
How much power does Mr. Tô Lâm have as president?
 13

Các ông Trọng, Lâm, Chính hiện là ba người quyền lực nhất Việt Nam hiện nay xét theo vị trí
và thâm niên, Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer, học giả về chính trị Việt Nam tại Học viện Quốc phòng
Úc [Professor Carlyle Thayer, a scholar of Vietnamese politics at the Australian Defence Force
Academy], nói với VOA. Tuy nhiên, ông Trọng đã tuổi cao sức yếu nên khó có khả năng làm
thêm một nhiệm kỳ thứ tư.
Tuy nhiên, ông Lâm và ông Chính sẽ lần lượt 69 và 68 tuổi, tức là quá tuổi quy định của Đảng
để được ở lại thêm một nhiệm kỳ trừ phi được Đảng đặc cách như trường hợp của ông Nguyễn
Phú Trọng và Nguyễn Xuân Phúc trước đây.
Để được xếp vào ‘trường hợp đặc biệt’ được miễn trừ về tuổi tác, ông Tô Lâm phải tranh thủ
được sự ủng hộ của Bộ Chính trị và Ban chấp hành Trung ương, Giáo sư Thayer cho biết.
“Ông Tô Lâm được tín nhiệm khi làm bộ trưởng Công an giúp sức cho chiến dịch chống tham
nhũng và tiêu cực của ông Trọng. Vào lúc này, ông ấy là ứng cử viên sáng giá nhất để trở thành
lãnh đạo Đảng.”
Theo lời nhà nghiên cứu này thì mặc dù dư luận đồn đoán rằng ông Lâm muốn làm tổng bí
thư, nhưng ông ấy chưa tỏ vẻ gì là đang vận động cho cái ghế này và phải đợi một thời gian
nữa để xem tên ông Lâm có được Tiểu ban Nhân sự của Đại hội Đảng đưa vào danh sách cân
nhắc cho Ban chấp hành Trung ương khóa tới hay không.
Trả lời câu hỏi việc bị miễn nhiệm Bộ trưởng Công an, chức vụ cho phép ông Tô Lâm có quyền
hành rất lớn trong việc điều tra sai phạm của các lãnh đạo, có làm cho quyền lực của ông bị
suy suyển hay không, vị giáo sư này phân tích: “Quyền điều hành công việc hàng ngày của ông
ấy bị suy yếu đi một chút bởi vì ông ấy không còn nắm quyền trực tiếp ở Bộ Công an nữa. Tuy
nhiên, ông ấy có thể dựa vào những người được ông ấy bảo trợ ở Bộ Công an, trong đó có
tân Bộ trưởng Lương Tam Quang.”
Thượng tướng Lương Tam Quang và Thượng tướng Nguyễn Duy Ngọc, vốn là thứ trưởng cho
ông Tô Lâm khi ông còn là bộ trưởng Công an, đều là đồng hương Hưng Yên của ông Lâm và
được các nhà quan sát cho là ‘người thân tín’ của ông Lâm.
Nếu nhìn tổng thể thì thế lực của ông Tô Lâm trong Đảng được củng cố sau khi có đến 6 trong
18 ủy viên Bộ Chính trị phải ra đi, tạo ra khoảng trống quyền lực, trong khi thân tín của ông
được đề bạt lên các vị trí cao hơn, cũng theo lời của Giáo sư Thayer.
Ngoài Thượng tướng Lương Tam Quang được thăng làm Bộ trưởng Công an, Thượng tướng
Nguyễn Duy Ngọc cũng đã được chỉ định làm Chánh văn phòng Trung ương Đảng. Theo lệ của
Đảng thì hai ông Quang và Ngọc nhiều khả năng sẽ được vào Bộ Chính trị.
Về phần Thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính, vốn cũng xuất thân từ Bộ Công an, Giáo sư Thayer cho
biết ông Chính cũng đối mặt với cáo buộc tham nhũng của gia đình nhưng ‘đa số thành viên
Bộ Chính trị phản đối xử lý ông Chính’. VOA không thể kiểm chứng độc lập thông tin này…
Điểm yếu của Tô Lâm
Giáo sư Thayer cho rằng nền chính trị theo kiểu tập trung dân chủ và lãnh đạo tập thể của
Việt Nam không cho một cá nhân lãnh đạo nào quá nhiều quyền lực, cho nên nếu ông Tô Lâm
trở thành người quyền lực nhất mà không bị kiềm chế thì điều đó ‘sẽ không tốt cho Đảng’.
VOA Tiếng Việt, Voice of America Vietnamese Service, June 15, 2024
https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/len-chu-tich-nuoc-the-luc-cua-ong-to-lam-lon-den-dau-
/7656449.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0NugtEe-
 14

3JHn4SRBRlSLXGsmTCHAEMvMweDIK4wT3CvC9pKYgPOWNBvUc_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MT
ZieXRlcw.

Russia's Putin to visit Vietnam, sparking US rebuke of Hanoi

"The main issues relate to shoring up economic and commercial ties, including arms sales,"
said Carl Thayer, a senior expert on Vietnam security at the Australian Defence Force
Academy in Canberra.
Putin and Vietnam's leaders will likely agree to work out rouble-dong currency transactions
via the banking system to enable payment for goods and services, he said.
Reuters, Francesco Guarascio, Phuong Nguyen and Khanh Vu, June 17, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-rebukes-vietnam-ahead-expected-visit-by-
russias-putin-2024-06-17/
Reprinted:
Jim Pollard with Reuters, Asia Financial, June 18, 2024
https://www.asiafinancial.com/vietnams-internet-cables-down-days-before-putin-visit
Business Standard, June 17, 2024
https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/russian-prez-putin-to-visit-north-korea-
vietnam-us-embassy-reacts-sternly-124061700563_1.html
Georgi Gotev, EurActiv.com, June 17, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reuters, Francesco Guarascio and Khanh Vu, GMA Network, June 17, 2024
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/910299/russia-s-putin-to-visit-
vietnam-sparking-us-rebuke-of-hanoi/story/
Resham, Strategic News Global, June 17 2024
https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/putins-scheduled-visit-to-vietnam-sparks-us-
reproach/
Reuters, Swissinfo, June 17, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Vietnam Welcomes Putin for State Visit Criticized by U.S

The nation has long relied on Russia for weapons, including aircraft and submarines. Since
Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though, Vietnam has refrained from Russian arms
procurements because of concerns over Western sanctions, said Carl Thayer, emeritus
professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Hanoi will seek reassurances that Russia’s increasingly close ties with China are “not going to
be at the expense of Vietnam,” Thayer said.
Bloomberg, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and John Boudreau, Time Magazine, June 19, 2024
 15

https://time.com/6990106/vietnam-russia-putin-state-visit-us-criticism/
Reprinted:
Vietnam welcomes Putin in boost to ties, ignoring U.S. criticism
Bloomberg, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and John Boudreau, The Japan Times, June 20, 2024
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/06/20/world/politics/vietnam-putin-ties-us/

Vietnam prepares for Putin's visit after his meeting with Kim Jong Un
“Putin’s trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore
up economic relations through trade and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-
đồng currency exchange mechanism for goods and services payments,” said Carl Thayer,
emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia and a Vietnam
expert.
Deutsche Presse-Agentur International Service, June 19, 2024
https://www.yahoo.com/news/vietnam-prepares-putins-visit-meeting-102456447.html
Reprinted:
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, MSN, June 19, 2024
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/putin-lauds-trusted-friend-vietnam-after-signing-
co-operation-deals/ar-
BB1ozAfq?ocid=iehpDD&apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcompon
ents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
Korean Central News Agency, Yonhap News Agency and Deutsche Presse-Agentur,
The Bharat Express News, June 19, 2024
https://thebharatexpressnews.com/putin-arrives-in-vietnam-after-a-visit-to-north-
korea/#google_vignette
Putin arrives in Vietnam after visit to North Korea
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Chris Humphrey and Bac Pham, June 20, 2024.
Dow Jones Factiva

US underscores ‘ironclad commitments’ to Philippines after latest clash with China

Further escalation at the shoal is possible, according to Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor
at the University of New South Wales and a lecturer at the Australian Defence Force Academy.
“In recent days China has pushed the envelope beyond dangerous maneuvers, water cannons
and ramming to seizing and vandalizing Philippine supplies for its detachment on the BRP
Sierra Madre and now boarding and seizing weapons carried by uniformed Philippine
officials,” he told Stars and Stripes by email Thursday.
‘Up the ante’
 16

Escalation could result in a Filipino fatality or sinking a Philippine vessel as the Philippines
increases the scope and tempo of naval patrols in its territorial waters in the South China Sea,
he said.
However, if China holds short of an armed attack on Philippine military ships and public
vessels, the risk of U.S. involvement is low, Thayer said.
America’s options include enlisting other allies such as Japan and Australia, along with like-
minded maritime powers in Europe, to join patrols and provide overwatch for Philippine
supply missions or even escorts for Philippine supply vessels, he said.
Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, June 20, 2024
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2024-06-20/blinken-philippines-china-coast-
guard-shoal-14239867.html

Putin In Hanoi After Inking N. Korea Defence Pact

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at Australia's University of New South Wales, said
Vietnam has stopped "big ticket" military purchases since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
"Russia and Vietnam have a mutual interest in resuming arms sales but Vietnam is hamstrung
by the threat of US sanctions," he told AFP.
Agence France-Presse, Cat Barton and Damon Wake, June 21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Deutsche Welle, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Dimsum Daily (Hong Kong), June 20. 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
The Cyprus Weekly, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
India TV News, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Damon Wake, International Business Times, June 19. 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Manila Standard, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
The Punch, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Seychelles News Agency, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
 17

Bức tranh đối ngoại lớn của Việt Nam

Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Mosaic
Carl Thayer, Đại Học New South Wales, Uc (Carl Thayer, University of New South Wales,
Australia)
‘Chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước đến Việt Nam của Tổng thống Nga Vladimir Putin diễn ra trong
bối cảnh đặc biệt, khi cả Nga và Việt Nam cũng như các nước khác đều tìm cách đa dạng hóa
lựa chọn hợp tác về chính trị, an ninh và kinh tế.
Đối với Nga, chuyến đi của ông Putin tập trung vào bốn vấn đề quan trọng.
Thứ nhất, Nga muốn chứng minh rằng họ luôn trân trọng bạn bè, đối tác và các mối quan hệ
truyền thống. Điều này đặc biệt có ý nghĩa trong bối cảnh Matxcơva gặp sức ép từ phương
Tây.
Thứ hai, đây là dịp để Nga và Việt Nam củng cố quan hệ kinh tế, đặc biệt trong ngành năng
lượng.
Thứ ba, Nga hy vọng sẽ tiếp tục các cam kết về mua sắm vũ khí mới với Việt Nam.
Và thứ tư, Việt Nam và Nga sẽ tìm cách tăng cường quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện.
Với Việt Nam, việc tiếp đón ông Putin lần này nêu bật đường lối đối ngoại độc lập, tự chủ của
Hà Nội nhằm phục vụ tốt nhất cho lợi ích quốc gia.
Trước ông Putin, Việt Nam cũng đã chào đón các lãnh đạo thế giới như Tổng thống Hàn Quốc
Yoon Suk Yeol, Tổng thống Mỹ Joe Biden, Tổng bí thư, Chủ tịch Trung Quốc Tập Cận Bình và
Tổng thống Đức Frank-Walter Steinmeier trong 12 tháng qua.
Việt Nam thể hiện chính sách đối ngoại độc lập và tự chủ của mình bằng cách đảm bảo với
các đối tác chiến lược khác rằng Hà Nội coi trọng mối quan hệ với họ.
Ví dụ hôm 14-6, Chủ tịch nước Tô Lâm đã gặp gỡ Đại sứ Mỹ Marc Knapper.
Theo ông Tô Lâm, để duy trì đà hợp tác và triển khai hiệu quả khuôn khổ quan hệ Đối tác
chiến lược toàn diện thời gian tới, hai bên nên đẩy mạnh hợp tác, trong đó có việc từng bước
mở rộng hợp tác về an ninh - quốc phòng phù hợp mong muốn của cả hai bên.
Cùng ngày, Ủy viên Bộ Chính trị, Bí thư Trung ương Đảng Nguyễn Trọng Nghĩa hội kiến ông
Vương Hỗ Ninh, ủy viên thường vụ Bộ Chính trị, chủ tịch Chính hiệp toàn quốc Trung Quốc.
Ông Vương cho rằng Trung Quốc và Việt Nam cần tiếp tục thực hiện hiệu quả tinh thần chỉ
đạo và nhận thức chung quan trọng giữa hai tổng bí thư nhằm thúc đẩy quan hệ song phương.
Kế đó, ngày 17-6, Bộ trưởng Bộ Công an Lương Tam Quang có cuộc gặp với một đoàn đại biểu
Mỹ thuộc Hội đồng Công nghệ thông tin để thúc đẩy hợp tác. Ông Quang lưu ý rằng kinh tế,
thương mại và đầu tư là "động lực chính thúc đẩy quan hệ song phương phát triển".
Tương tự, Việt Nam cũng thể hiện chính sách đối ngoại nhất quán của mình thông qua việc
nỗ lực đạt cam kết trong các thỏa thuận với những đối tác chiến lược toàn diện, đối tác chiến
lược và đối tác toàn diện của mình, cũng như các cam kết trong nhiều hiệp định thương mại
tự do như Hiệp định đối tác toàn diện và tiến bộ xuyên Thái Bình Dương (CPTPP), Hiệp định
 18

đối tác kinh tế toàn diện khu vực (RCEP), Hiệp định thương mại tự do Việt Nam - EU (EVFTA)
và đàm phán thiện chí về Khuôn khổ kinh tế Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương (IPEF) của chính
quyền Tổng thống Mỹ Biden.
Trên bình diện quốc tế, Việt Nam tán thành các nguyên tắc cơ bản của luật pháp quốc tế và
Hiến chương Liên Hiệp Quốc, đồng thời kêu gọi các bên liên quan "kiềm chế, ngừng chiến, nối
lại đối thoại và tôn trọng luật pháp quốc tế".
Việt Nam công khai ủng hộ đối thoại ở Ukraine và lập trường của Việt Nam cũng được Tổng
thống Nga tôn trọng.
Trong khi đó ở khu vực, Việt Nam sẵn sàng nâng tầm quan hệ song phương với Singapore. Và
nói tóm lại, mối quan hệ Việt - Nga nên được xem như một phần trong bức tranh lớn hơn.
Carl Thayer, Đại Học New South Wales, Uc (Carl Thayer, University of New South Wales,
Australia) and Nhat Dang, Tuổi trẻ, June 21, 2024, 1 and 3 and https://tuoitre.vn/buc-tranh-
doi-ngoai-lon-cua-viet-nam-20240621093929212.htm

Putin arrives in Vietnam after visit to North Korea

Putin's trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore
up economic relations through trade and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-
dong currency exchange mechanism for goods and services payments," said Carl Thayer,
emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia and a Vietnam
expert…
Indo-Asian News Service (IANS) and Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA), June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Putin lauds ties with Hanoi on state visit to Vietnam
IANS and DPA, Daiji World (Mangalore), June 20, 2024
https://daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=1201112
Putin lauds ties with Hanoi on state visit to Vietnam
IANS and DPA, Morung Express, June 21, 2024
https://morungexpress.com/putin-lauds-ties-with-hanoi-on-state-visit-to-vietnam
Putin lauds ties with Hanoi on state visit to Vietnam
IANS, Punjab News Express, June 20, 2024
https://www.punjabnewsexpress.com/news/news/putin-lauds-ties-with-hanoi-on-state-
visit-to-vietnam-253393
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Vietnam after North Korea tip
Telangana Today (Hyderabad), June 20, 2024,
Dow Jones Factiva
 19

Vietnam and Russia, a historic alliance that continues despite the war
Analyst Carl Thayer indicated in an article on Wednesday that "Russia wants to show the
Western coalition opposing its intervention in Ukraine that it is not isolated."
EFE, CE Noticias Financieras, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit

Carl Thayer, a Vietnam security expert quoted by Reuters said, "President Putin's visit to North
Korea and Vietnam is to demonstrate that Western efforts to isolate Russia are failing and
that Russia has allies in Asia.
The Times of India, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
‘
Europas Freihandelspartner Vietnam rollt Putin den roten Teppich aus
Europe's free trade partner Vietnam rolls out the red carpet for Putin
Vietnam has border disputes with China in the South China Sea – and hopes for backing from
Moscow. That is why Hanoi has followed the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing
with suspicion, Thayer said. Among other things, oil and gas production projects are
underway together with Russia in the disputed area with China. “Vietnam has greater
strategic trust in Russia than in China,” says Thayer [translated from the German]
Nicole Bastian and Mareike Müller, Handelsblatt, June 20 2024,
https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/geopolitik-europas-freihandelspartner-
vietnam-rollt-putin-den-roten-teppich-aus/100045918.html

Putin applauds Vietnam's stance on war in bid to 'show Western isolation isn't working'
"Putin's visit to North Korea and Vietnam is to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate
Russia are not working and that Russia has partners in Asia," said Carl Thayer, an expert on
Vietnam security at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.
Sky News, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

After North Korea, Putin lauds ties with Vietnam on state visit
“Putin’s trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore
up economic relations through trade and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-
đồng currency exchange mechanism for goods and services payments.’’
Vietnam expert Carl Thayer the emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South
Wales in Australia has said.
 20

Vanguard News, June 20, 2024

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/06/after-north-korea-putin-lauds-ties-with-vietnam-
on-state-visit/

Russian leader Vladimir Putin visits Vietnam after signing North Korea pact
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at Australia's University of New South Wales, said
Vietnam has stopped "big ticket" military purchases since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
"Russia and Vietnam have a mutual interest in resuming arms sales but Vietnam is hamstrung
by the threat of US sanctions," he said.
Agence France-Presse, June 20, 2024.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-20/putin-visits-vietnam-after-signing-north-korea-
pact/104002650
Reprinted:
Vladimir Putin in Hanoi after inking North Korea defence pact
Agence-France-Presse, Dam Wake and Cat Barton, The Australian, June 20, 2024
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/vladimir-putin-in-hanoi-after-inking-north-korea-
defence-pact/news-story/c041c3f474106081189874a2b268ae9b
Putin in Hanoi after inking North Korea defense pact
Agence France-Presse, Daily Tribune, June 20, 2024
https://tribune.net.ph/2024/06/20/putin-in-hanoi-after-inking-north-korea-defense-pact
Lam meets Putin, eyes defense coop
Daily Tribune, June 21, 2024
https://tribune.net.ph/2024/06/20/lam-meets-putin-eyes-defense-coop
Putin Arrives in Vietnam After Signing Defense Pact With North Korea
Agence France-Presse, The Moscow Times, June 20 2024
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/20/putin-arrives-in-vietnam-after-signing-
defense-pact-with-north-korea-a85467
Putin arrives in Viet]nam, which considers Russia as counterbalance to US and China
Kateryna Serohina, RBC-Ukraine
Dow Jones Factiva
Putin arrives in Hanoi after signing N Korea defence pact
RTÉ News, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Vietnam greets Putin in boost to ties, ignoring US criticism

 21

The nation has long relied on Russia for weapons, including aircraft and submarines. Since
Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though, Vietnam has refrained from Russian arms
procurements because of concerns over Western sanctions, said Carl Thayer, emeritus
professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Hanoi will seek reassurances that Russia’s increasingly close ties with China are “not going to
be at the expense of Vietnam,” Thayer said.
Bloomberg, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and John Boudreau, The Edge Malaysia, June 20, 2024
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/716059

Putin’s Vietnam Visit Highlights Strategic Ties Amid Western Sanction

Carl Thayer, a Vietnam security expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra,
noted that Putin’s visits to North Korea and Vietnam are meant to show that “Western
attempts to isolate Russia are not working and that Russia has partners in Asia.”
Reuters, Naija247News, June 20, 2024
https://naija247news.com/2024/06/20/putins-vietnam-visit-highlights-strategic-ties-amid-
western-sanctions/
Reprinted:
Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit
The Bangkok Post ,June 20, 2024
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2814496/russian-president-putin-arrives-in-vietnam-
for-state-visit
Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit
Reuters, Cyprus Mail, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Vladimir Putin arrives in Vietnam for final stop in two-nation Asia tour
India Today Online, June 20, 20245
Dow Jones Factiva
Reuters, Minh Nguyen and Khanh Vu, Japan Today, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
President Putin Arrives In Vietnam For State Visit
Ashwin Ahmad, Strat News Global (New Delhi), June 20 2024
https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/president-putin-arrives-in-vietnam-for-state-visit/
Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam
Times of India, June 20, 2024
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/russian-president-putin-arrives-in-
vietnam-for-state-visit/articleshow/111125282.cms
 22

TRT (Turkish Radio and Television), World, June 21, 2024

Dow Jones Factiva

History, 'bamboo diplomacy' in focus on Putin's Vietnam trip

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at Australia's University of New South Wales, said
that behind closed doors, the two sides will likely work on ways to do business without falling
foul of Western sanctions.
Agence France-Presse, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Agence France-Presse, Barron’s, June 20 2024
https://www.barrons.com/news/history-bamboo-diplomacy-in-focus-on-putin-s-vietnam-
trip-5b4afeb6?refsec=topics_afp-news
Agence France-Presse and Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (National News Agency of
Bangladesh), BSS News, June 20, 2024.
https://www.bssnews.net/business/195815.
Agence France-Presse, Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha, Daily Sun, June 20 2014
https://www.daily-sun.com/post/753761
Agence France-Presse, Kyiv Post, June 20 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Agence France-Presse and New Vision, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva

Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit

"President Putin's visit to North Korea and Vietnam is to demonstrate that Western attempts
to isolate Russia are not working and that Russia has partners in Asia," said Carl Thayer, an
expert on Vietnam security at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.
Reuters, Minh Nguyen and Khanh Vu, Yahoo/News, June 20, 2024
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-president-putin-arrives-vietnam-194145880.html
Reprinted:
Putin, in Vietnam, calls for strengthening ‘strategic partnership’
Reuters, Cyprus Mail, June 20, 2024
https://cyprus-mail.com/2024/06/20/russian-president-putin-arrives-in-vietnam-for-state-
visit/
Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit
Reuters, Minh Nguyen and Khanh Vu, MSN.com, June 20, 2024
 23

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/russian-president-putin-arrives-in-vietnam-for-
state-visit/ar-
BB1oxl2y?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo
=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1

After North Korea defence agreement, Putin visits Vietnam

Defence issues are expected to dominate the agenda, analysts say. The two countries have a
mutual interest in reviving arms sales, which declined in 2022, according to Carl Thayer, an
emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia. However, Vietnam
remains free from the threat of American sanctions, he adds.
Enphile.news, In-Cyprus, June 20, 2024
https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/international/after-north-korea-defence-agreement-putin-
visits-vietnam/

Vietnam Welcomes Putin in Boost to Ties, Ignoring US Criticism

The Southeast Asian nation has long relied on Russia for weapons, including aircraft and
submarines. Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though, Vietnam has refrained
from Russian arms procurements because of concerns over Western sanctions, said Carl
Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Hanoi will seek reassurances that Russia’s increasingly close ties with China are “not going to
be at the expense of Vietnam,” Thayer said.
Bloomberg, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and John Boudreau, June 20, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/vietnam-welcomes-putin-in-boost-
to-ties-ignoring-us-criticism

Reviving Russia’s weapons exports to Vietnam in focus as Putin visits Hanoi

“While the demands of the war in Ukraine must be met first, Russia appears motivated to
retain its traditional customers in these difficult times by offering long-term contracts,” said
Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales and specialist on
Vietnamese defence issues.
“Russia appears willing to sell if the price is right or exchange military hardware for goods,
that is, counter trade,” he added…
“Russia is a long-term comprehensive strategic partner that has provided Vietnam the lion’s
share of its big-ticket military weapons and platforms,” said Thayer, adding that Vietnam was
“caught between a rock and a hard place” due to its newer but highly strategic ties with the
West…
Furthermore, Thayer said that Vietnam’s arms purchases from Russia put it at risk of the US
Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Under the terms of the
2017 law, countries that buy Russian arms may be sanctioned. While enforcement is relatively
rare, new and conspicuous purchases from Russia may incur Washington’s wrath.’’
 24

Thayer said it was unlikely that Vietnam would arm Russia, pointing to the risk of sanctions
and alienation from the West.
“It is not in Vietnam’s interest to take sides in this conflict and Vietnam is unlikely to provide
Russia with material assistance for its war in Ukraine,” he said.
Bac Pham and Bennett Murrey, South China Morning Post, June 20, 2024
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3267345/reviving-russias-weapons-
exports-vietnam-focus-putin-visits-
hanoi?module=Russia%20%26%20Central%20Asia&pgtype=section

Putin lauds 'trusted friend' Vietnam after signing co-operation deals

"Putin's trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore
up economic relations through trade and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-
đồng currency exchange mechanism for goods and services payments," said Vietnam expert
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, International Service English, June 20, 29024
Reprinted:
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Deutsche Welle, June 20, 2024
https://www.dw.com/de/putin-betont-bedeutung-vietnams-f%C3%BCr-moskau/a-
69420841#:~:text=Der%20Ausbau%20der%20strategischen%20Partnerschaft,Mitgliedern%
20Moskau%20im%20Dialog%20stehe
The Hans India, June 20 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Indo-Asian News Service and Deutsche Presse-Agentur, June 20. 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Süddeutsche Zeitung, June 20, 2024
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/praesident-auf-asien-reise-russland-und-vietnam-
vertiefen-zusammenarbeit-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-240620-99-464012
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Wirtschaft Woche, June 20, 2024
https://www.wiwo.de/politik/ausland/praesident-auf-asien-reise-russland-und-vietnam-
vertiefen-zusammenarbeit/29858890.html
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Yahoo.com, June 20, 29024
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-lauds-trusted-friend-vietnam-
115104528.html?guccounter=1#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20on,
passed%20the%20test%20of%20time.%22

Russian President Putin on tour around Asia to prove he ‘still has friends’, say analysts
 25

“The West is isolating Russia, diplomatically and economically, because of its invasion of
Ukraine,” said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South
Wales in Canberra.
“And Vladimir Putin has used the invitations from North Korea and Vietnam to combine a trip
for him to demonstrate to the outside world that you can't isolate Russia.”
Channel News Asia, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Putin on tour around Asia to prove he ‘still has friends’, say analysts
Ya Libnan, June 21, 2024,
Dow Jones Factiva

Russian President Vladimir Putin lauds ties with Hanoi

“Putin’s trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore
up economic relations through trade and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-
dong currency exchange mechanism for goods and services payments,” said Vietnam expert
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
The Sentinel, June 21, 2024
https://www.sentinelassam.com/more-news/international/russian-president-vladimir-
putin-lauds-ties-with-hanoi

Why have Putin and Biden all tried to woo Vietnam?

Video: Vietnam’s Appeal Putin Visits Hanoi, Interview with Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer,
UNSW Canberra
ABC News (Sydney), June 21, 2024
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-20/why-vietnam-is-appealing-to-all-of-putin-xi-and-
biden/104002030

After North Korea defence agreement, Putin visits Vietnam

Defence issues are expected to dominate the agenda, analysts say. The two countries have a
mutual interest in reviving arms sales, which declined in 2022, according to Carl Thayer, an
emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia. However, Vietnam
remains free from the threat of American sanctions, he adds.
Enphilenews, In-Cyprus, June 21, 2024
https://in-cyprus.phulenews.com/international/after-north-korea-defence-agreement-
putin-visits-vietnam/
 26

Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new 'security architecture' for Asia

"Putin's triumphal reception in Hanoi will mark a counter-point to Russia's recent setbacks,"
said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy, listing the
recent Ukraine conference in Switzerland and new European Union sanctions on Russia.
Reuters, Khanh Vu and Minh Nguyen, June 21, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-president-putin-arrives-vietnam-state-visit-2024-
06-19/ and
Reuters News, David Brunnstrom and Kay Johnson, June 21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Reprinted:
Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new 'security architecture' for Asia
Asia One, June 21, 2024
Down Jones Factiva
Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new 'security architecture' for Asia
BDNews24, June21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Putin’s Strategic Pivot: Vietnam Visit Strengthens Asia-Pacific Security
Reuters, Devdiscourse, June 21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new 'security architecture' for Asia
Fiji Broadcasting Corp. June 21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Putin seeks new 'security architecture' for Asia
The Financial Express, June 21, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Putin in Vietnam seeks new ‘security architecture’
Gulf Times, June 20, 2024
Dow Jones Factiva
Russia's Putin in Vietnam seeks new ‘security architecture’
Reuters, Khanh Vu and Nguyen Minh, MSN June 21, 2024
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-putin-in-vietnam-seeks-new-security-
architecture/ar-
BB1oA5gD?ocid=BingNewsVerp&apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderweb
components=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1#
Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new ‘security architecture’ for Asia
 27

Khanh Vu and Minh Nguyen, SwissInfo.ch, June 21, 2024

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/visiting-vietnam%2c-putin-seeks-new-%27security-
architecture%27-for-asia/81183671
Russian President Putin arrives in Vietnam for state visit
Reuters, Khanh Vu and Minh Nguyen, Yahoo/News, June 21, 2024
https://au.news.yahoo.com/russian-president-putin-arrives-vietnam-194145880.html

New global scenario unfolds: After Pyongyang, Putin lands in Hanoi, lauds ties with Vietnam
Carl Thayer, a Vietnam expert and emeritus professor of politics at the University of New
South Wales in Australia, commented on the visit, Putin's trip to Vietnam will reinvigorate
their comprehensive strategic partnership and shore up economic relations through trade
and investment commitments by adopting a rouble-dong currency exchange mechanism for
goods and services payments.
Sheezan Naseer, International Business Times, June 21, 2024
https://www.ibtimes.co.in/new-global-scenario-unfolds-after-pyongyang-putin-lands-hanoi-
lauds-ties-vietnam-869350

Vietnam says it's willing to talk to PH about Manila's UN maritime claim

Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, said Manila’s ECS
submission “could form the basis of good faith negotiations to delineate overlapping claims
on the sea bed.”…
“It is up to the parties concerned how to do so,” Thayer told GMA News Online. “It would be
in the interests of Philippines if Malaysia and Vietnam made their positions known as soon as
possible. If there are overlapping claims, they could be resolved by good faith negotiations.
This would take some time.”
Reuters, Khanh Vu and Michaela del Callar, GMA News, June 21, 2024
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/910781/vietnam-says-it-s-willing-
to-talk-to-ph-about-manila-s-un-maritime-claim/story/#goog_rewarded

Russia's leader, Putin, seeks collaborators in Vietnam.

It is anticipated that Putin will strive to enhance trade relations and coerce Vietnam to
purchase weapons from Russia, according to Vietnam specialist Carl Thayer, who was
previously a professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Katherine Bradley, ASB Zeitung, June 21, 2024
https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/russias-leader-putin-persists-in-seeking-collaborators-in-
vietnam/

Vietnamese President Praises Putin Amid U.S. Criticism Over State Visit
 28

“Putin’s triumphal reception in Hanoi contrasts with Russia’s recent setbacks,” said Carlyle
Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy, noting recent EU
sanctions on Russia and a Ukraine conference in Switzerland.
These latest sanctions follow Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which
Moscow calls a “special military operation.”
Reuters, Naija247 News, June 21, 2024
https://naija247news.com/2024/06/21/vietnamese-president-praises-putin-amid-u-s-
criticism-over-state-visit/

Can Putin’s Diplomacy Help Him Counter Western Isolation?

Laura Kyle, Al Jazeera, June 22, 2024
Video: Interview with Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer, UNSW Canberra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZpB3L750n0
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2024/6/21/can-putins-diplomacy-help-
him-counter-western-isolation

Future Commitments
“Australia and Vietnam: Contrasting Cases of Deterrence,” Podcast, National Institute of
Deterrence Studies, July TBC.
“Australia and Vietnam and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Webinar hosted by
Australia-Vietnam Leaders’ Dialogue, late July 2024. TBC.
“Naval Modernisation, Strategic Rebalancing, and Security in the First Island Chain, 1949-
1996” Presentation to 3rd Workshop on Operation: Security Strategy, Balance of Power, and
Maritime Diplomacy, sponsored by Rothermere American Institute, University of Oxford,
Singapore, August 2024.
Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Asia Dialogue on China-US Relations Conference, Jakarta,
Indonesia, Spring (September-December) 2024 TBC.
“Naval Modernisation, Strategic Rebalancing, and Security in the First Island Chain, 1949-
1996,” in John Jenner, ed., Bounding Power in the Island Chains: The Efficacy of Maritime
Diplomacy in Sino-American Relations, 1949-1996 (Rothermere American Institute, Oxford
University 2025).
Presentation to “ASEAN Centrality in Theory and Reality. A Contribution to the Settlement
of the South China Sea Conflict?” Hybrid Conference, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg,
Germany, November 29, 2024, 10-18 h CET.
29
 30

THAYER CONSULTANCY PUBLICATIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Australia-Vietnam Relations, 1973-2023: Papers and Presentations by Carlyle A. Thayer,
Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No 1, June 24, 2023.
South China Sea Code of Conduct, 2018-2023: A Bibliography, Thayer Consultancy
Bibliography No. 2, August 6, 2023.
Vietnam’s Relations with the Russian Federation, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 3,
August 16, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 1976-2023, Thayer Consultancy Bibliography No. 4, October, 2023.

DISCUSSION PAPERS
Rough Waters Ahead for Vietnam-China Relations: A Critical Review, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 1, October 2020.
Vietnam Aligns with China and Plays the United States: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy
Discussion Paper No. 2, March 2023.
Recent Leadership Change in Vietnam: A Critique, Thayer Consultancy Discussion Paper No.
3, March 2023.

READERS
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 1, April 11, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2016-2020, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 2, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam People’s Army, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 3, April 12, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2021, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 4, April 19, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2022, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 5, April 20, 2023.
Vietnam-United States Relations, 2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 6, April 21, 2023.
Vietnam and Australia: Strategic Partners, 2018-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 7,
April 22, 2023.
Revival of the Quad, 2017-2018, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 8, May 15, 2023.
The Quad and the Indo-Pacific, 2019-2013, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 9, May 15, 2023.
Cambodia, 2021-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 10, July 25, 2023.
Vietnam-Russia Relations, 2016-2023, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 11, August 20, 2023.
Vo Van Thuong Resigns as President of Viet Nam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 12,
March 27, 2024.
Leadership Change in Vietnam, Thayer Consultancy Reader No. 13, May 27, 2024.