Scribd
Upload
92 views13 pages

10 - Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting - Modal Split

Uploaded by

matthew delos santos
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
92 views13 pages

10 - Introduction To Travel Demand Forecasting - Modal Split

Uploaded by

matthew delos santos
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 13

10: Introduction to Travel Demand

Forecasting (Modal Split)


CE 17: Principles of Transportation Engineering
Introduction to Travel Demand Forecasting

PART 3: MODAL SPLIT


Modal Split
• Modal split is the process of separating person-trips
by the mode of travel.
• Usually expressed as a fraction, ratio, or percentage
of the total number of trips
Factors affecting the Modal Split
Factors affecting the modal split
• Characteristics of the trip – trip purpose, trip length
• Household characteristics – income, car ownership,
family size, composition
• Zonal characteristics – residential density, concentration
of workers, distance from CBD
• Network characteristics – accessibility ratio, travel time
ratio, travel cost ratio
Mode choice dependence
Mode choice depends on the following:
• Travel time (travel time in-vehicle + travel time waiting)
• Travel cost
• Socio-economic status of user (income, family size, etc.)
• Level of travel service (comfort, safety, speed, etc.)
The variable defining the model is a function called the
utility function
Quick Response System (QRS) Method
• In this method, system LOS variables are considered, including
travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of the trip
maker, and relative travel service.
• Impedance value is determined for each zonal pair and
represents a measure of the expenditure required to make
the trip by either auto or transit.
• Data required: (1) distance between zones by auto and transit,
(2) transit fare, (3) out-of-pocket auto cost, (4) parking cost,
(5) highway and transit speed, (6) exponent values b, (7)
median income, and (8) excess time.
QRS Method
Example
Assume that the data shown Auto (a) Transit (t)
have been developed for Distance 16 km 12 km
travel time between a Cost (Php) 4.67 3.11
suburban zone S and a per km
downtown zone D. Determine Excess 5 mins. 8 mins.
the percent of work trips by time
auto and transit. An exponent Parking Php 60 (or -
value of 2.0 is used for work cost Php 30
travel. Median income is Php per tip)
240,000 per year. Speed 48 kph 32 kph
Logit Models
An alternative approach is to consider the relative utility of each mode as a
summation of each modal attribute. Then the choice of a mode is expressed
as a probability distribution.
Logit Model
𝑒 𝑢𝑚
𝑃 % 𝑚 = 𝑚 𝑢𝑚
σ𝑒=1 𝑒
P(%)m – probability of choosing mode m of transportation
e – natural exponential base
um – utility function of different modes
If we assume an urban area using bus, car and taxi as public transportation modes,
𝑒 𝑢𝑏
% bus is: 𝑃 % 𝑏 = 𝑢𝑏 𝑢𝑐 𝑢𝑡
𝑒 +𝑒 +𝑒
𝑒 𝑢𝑐
% car is: 𝑃 % 𝑐 = 𝑢𝑏 𝑢𝑐 𝑢𝑡
𝑒 +𝑒 +𝑒
𝑒 𝑢𝑡
% taxi is: 𝑃 % 𝑡 = 𝑢𝑏 𝑢𝑐 𝑢𝑡
𝑒 +𝑒 +𝑒
Example
Use the logit
model to
determine the
percent of travel in
the zone by using
auto and transit.
General Utility Function
The general utility function is then given by the usual form:
𝑥𝑚 𝑐𝑚
𝑢𝑚 = 𝐾𝑚 + 𝐾1 𝑡𝑚 + 𝐾2 ⋅ + 𝐾3 ⋅
𝑑 𝑌
Where:
Km = mode-specific constant
tm = in-vehicle time (minutes-one way)
xm = out-of-vehicle time (minutes-one way)
d = distance one way
cm = cost one way
Y = annual income

m = mode of transportation (a for auto, b for bus, t for taxi, T for train, etc.)
Example
Consider a user choosing Auto (a) Bus (b)
between two modes of auto and ta = 11 minutes tb = 14 minutes
public bus, considering the xa = 5 minutes tb = 8 minutes
following situation:
ca = 122 pesos cb = 50 pesos
If the distance is 12 km, and the
annual income of the user is Php
180k; also his value parameters
obtained from data collection is
K1 = -0.03, K2 = -0.34, K3 = -50,
Ka = -0.13 and Kb = 0.

You might also like