Omar Dissertation
Omar Dissertation
Omar Dissertation
Chapter 1 : Introduction.....................................................................................................2
1.1 background..........................................................................................................................2
1.2 Problem statement...............................................................................................................2
1.3 Aims and objectives..............................................................................................................3
Thesis Questions................................................................................................................4
Chapter 2 : Literature review.............................................................................................4
2. 1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................4
2.2 Understanding Cost overrun.................................................................................................5
2.3 Consequences of cost overrun..............................................................................................5
2.4 Causes of Cost overruns........................................................................................................6
2.5 Cost overrun in the UK..........................................................................................................7
2.6 Cost overrun in Developing nations.......................................................................................8
2.6.1 Cost overrun in Morocco.....................................................................................................................8
2.6.2 Cost overrun in other developing nations...........................................................................................9
2.7 Understanding Lean management.......................................................................................11
2.8 Challenges in Implementing lean construction....................................................................12
2.8.1 Barriers of implementation of lean construction in the UK...............................................................12
2.8.2 Barriers of implementation of lean construction in Morocco............................................................13
Chapter 3. Methodology..................................................................................................15
3.1 Prologue.............................................................................................................................15
3.2 Research philosophy...........................................................................................................16
3.3 research approach..............................................................................................................17
Enhancing Efficiency in the Moroccan Construction Sector: Leveraging Lean construction to
Mitigate Cost Overruns
Dissertation
Chapter 1 : Introduction
1.1 background
The construction sector plays a pivotal role in the economic dynamics of both developed and
developing nations. It significantly contributes to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
employment generation, and broader economic development, as highlighted by Olawale and
Sun (2010). Relative to other sectors, the construction industry ranks prominently in terms of
its annual business failure rates and associated financial liabilities (Enshassi et al., 2008).
This susceptibility is largely attributed to the inherent risks and uncertainties that challenge
effective management practices, often leading to complex operational hurdles (Jannadi and
Almishari, 2003).
One recurrent issue within numerous construction projects is the prevalence of cost overruns,
a matter of critical concern across both developed and developing contexts (Le-Hoai et al.,
2008). According to Memon et al. (2011), this issue assumes greater significance in
developing countries due to deficiencies in management practices, potentially leading to cost
projections exceeding initial estimates by up to 100%. Such fiscal discrepancies can result in
project terminations, suspensions, or delays until additional financing is secured. Monyane
(2013) suggests that these challenges often arise from the uncritical adoption of management
strategies developed in disparate economic and regulatory environments, without adequate
consideration of local contextual variances.
The construction sector in Morocco plays a vital role in economic advancement, contributing
6.3% to the total value added and employing nearly one million individuals, accounting for
9.3% of the active population [1][2]. This industry not only significantly reduces
unemployment but also strengthens the national economy. However, it confronts several
critical challenges, including project delays, cost overruns, compromised quality, and
considerable environmental impact [2]–[6].
Performance issues in Moroccan construction projects are predominantly attributed to
significant cost and time overruns [7]. Additionally, Moroccan construction firms are noted
for substantial waste production, necessitating the urgent adoption of innovative management
systems aimed at reducing waste and enhancing project performance. In response to these
challenges, the Lean Construction (LC) philosophy, rooted in Lean Manufacturing principles
and particularly inspired by the Toyota Production System (TPS), has been introduced to the
Moroccan construction sector. Despite its nascent stage, the LC approach is designed to
ensure project delivery that meets customer requirements through waste minimization and
value maximization [6], [8], [9]. Moreover, LC advocates for continuous improvement and
encourages the active involvement of all personnel, from front-line employees to top
management [10]–[14].
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2. Which management procedures are most effective in mitigating the causes of cost
overruns in Morocco's construction industry, and how do lean methodologies
contribute to these procedures?
3. Among the identified factors causing cost overruns in Morocco, which is the most
influential, and how does its impact on project efficiency and budget compliance
compare to other contributing factors?
2. 1 Introduction
Ahmed et al. (2002) [1] identified the consistent failure to complete projects within the
estimated budget as a pervasive issue, labelling cost overrun as one of the most critical
challenges in the construction industry. This problem has been a focal point of debate among
scholars and researchers, as noted by Mustefa (2015) [2], particularly due to the ongoing
global expansion of the construction sector. Despite the ubiquity of cost overruns, their
severity varies by project and region, necessitating a clear understanding of their root causes
to avoid these pitfalls (Azhar et al., 2008)[3]. In striving to achieve successful project
outcomes, which encompass technical performance, adherence to schedule, and budget
maintenance, construction management teams focus primarily on delivering projects within
budget and on time while meeting client expectations. However, project owners often
prioritize cost over quality, emphasizing the need for accurate initial estimates. These
estimates are crucial for contractors to conduct cost-benefit analyses and for clients to make
informed decisions about proceeding with projects (Hammad et al., 2014) [4] . The challenge
of cost overrun is compounded by limited initial information and the significant expenses
incurred from correcting errors during project execution, leading to many projects failing to
stay within budget and schedule. Researchers attribute these failures to various factors
including inaccurate risk identification and quantification, estimation errors, management
failures and external influences such as market conditions and local requirements (Akintoye,
2000; Jennings, 2012) [5] [6] .
2.2 Understanding Cost overrun
the concept of cost escalation remains ambiguously defined. Flyvbjerg et al. (2002) [7]
articulated cost escalation as the discrepancy between the actual and estimated costs of a
project. Specifically, the actual cost refers to the total expenditure recorded upon project
completion, whereas the estimated cost denotes the initial budgeted or forecasted financial
allocation at the project's inception. This can directly impact the project's progress and the
financial status of the involved parties, potentially leading to compromises in material
quality, delays in completion, and even bankruptcy for the contractor. Cost overrun is a
critical factor in determining the success or failure of a project, particularly in construction
and infrastructure projects[8]. For insatance, the Sydney Opera House (SOH) is a notable
instance of a construction megaproject that experienced significant budget overruns.
Originally projected at A$7 million in 1957, the costs for the SOH project escalated
dramatically, ultimately increasing by a factor of 14.5, to reach a final expenditure of A$102
million by 1973 [9]. Peter et al. (2012) [10] introduced a mathematical equation designed to
compute the percentage by which projects exceed their budgeted amounts. A study says that
the average cost overrun for mega-scale projects could range from 20.4% to 44.7%
whichwas conducted across 20 nations in five continents(Flyvbjerg et al.2004) [15]
In a comprehensive study of 8,000 projects conducted by the Standish Group, Frame (1994)
[24] discovered that only 16% of the projects met the three fundamental criteria for project
success: completion on time, adherence to the budgeted cost, and compliance with quality
standards.
Clients: endure additional financial burdens exceeding the initially agreed budget,
resulting in diminished profits and returns on their investments.
Consumers face higher lease or rental costs, potentially compounded by increased
taxes necessary for environmental clean-up operations following projects such as
mining.
Authorities struggle to deliver value for the money invested, which in turn can
tarnish their reputation and undermine public trust.
Contractors experience reduced profit margins, reputational damage, and decreased
opportunities to secure future contracts due to perceived or real failures in managing
project costs effectively.
These consequences highlight the critical need for rigorous cost management strategies
within the construction industry to mitigate the risks associated with cost overruns.
- Effective project planning is critical, as identified by Buba and Tanko [18], who noted that success
hinges on robust planning to enhance cost controls. Panthi, Farooqui, and Ahmed [19] suggested that
construction businesses employ four fundamental management tools—planning, organizing, leading,
and controlling—to better manage costs and minimize overruns.
Change in Scope
- Scope changes often stem from modifications in the design of architectural, structural, or service
components, frequently due to the client’s revised plans or scope. Allahaim and Liu [17 b] attributed
main scope change causes to unrealistic owner designs and omissions. Smith [20] noted that scope
changes are typically client-driven and occur due to variations introduced by consultants.
Site Conditions
- Site-related challenges include environmental, social, and cultural impacts, which introduce
uncertainty in task execution and outcome predictability. For instance, unexpected geological
conditions can complicate planning and estimation processes. Khoshgoftar, Bakar, and Osman [21]
recognized site conditions as a significant factor in Iranian building project cost overruns. They
highlighted that environmental concerns could escalate construction costs and extend the design,
planning, and construction lifecycle. Notably, the British Rail’s high-speed link to the Channel Tunnel
experienced cost overruns up to US$1.4 billion due to changes in site conditions [17 c].
Market Fluctuation
- Market conditions can drastically affect project costs and durations due to unpredictable
fluctuations in labor and material prices or changes in government regulations [22]. The management
must strategically align resources in construction designs to adapt to such uncertainties. This category
also encompasses issues like client payment delays, cash flow challenges during construction,
fluctuating exchange rates, high bank interest rates, fraudulent practices, political complexities, the
practice of awarding contracts to the lowest bidder, and stringent laws and regulations.
Morris (1990) [23] conducted an in-depth analysis of the factors contributing to cost overruns in
public sector projects. His research revealed that the escalation in project costs can be attributed to
several key factors. Firstly, the initial cost estimates were derived using current prices without
incorporating any contingency allowances. Secondly, project delays exacerbated the impact of
inflation. Additionally, direct cost escalations arose from changes in project scope, errors, and other
factors.
Morris (1990) [23] further analyzed 133 projects and, based on specific assumptions regarding the
pace of expenditure, estimated that only approximately 25 to 30% of the cost increase could be
attributed to inflation. The remaining 70 to 75% of the cost overruns were due to delays,
inefficiencies, scope changes, changes in statutory levies, variations in exchange rates, and the
combined effect of these factors with inflation.
Numerous studies have identified the primary causes of cost overruns in the United Kingdom.
Jackson (2002) [34] conducted research to determine why construction projects exceed their
initial budgets, analyzing projects that had gone over budget. The study concluded that client-
initiated design changes were the main cause of cost overruns. Additionally, the findings
revealed that a lack of information during the planning stage, incomplete designs, absence of
design details during implementation, and inaccurate cost estimations are significant
contributors to cost overruns in UK construction projects. An in-depth study by Olawale and
Sun (2010)[33] further ranked these factors after conducting extensive surveys and
interviews, as shown in Table 2.
Additionally, the study's outcomes indicated that a lack of information availability during the
planning stage, incomplete designs, absence of design details throughout the implementation
stage, and inaccurate cost estimation are significant factors contributing to cost overruns in
UK construction projects. Some studies conducted in the 1980s suggested that inflation was a
major cause of cost overruns; however, its impact has diminished in certain countries due to
substantial economic changes between the 1980s and 2000s. For instance, Durdyev et al.
(2017) [36] reported that inflation has the least impact on construction costs compared to
other factors. Nevertheless, inflation could become a significant issue for the UK construction
industry post-Brexit. Further research is needed to assess the potential impact of Brexit on the
construction sector. Relatedly, rising material prices have also been identified as an important
factor contributing to cost overruns[37].
A notable example of cost overruns in Morocco is the Casablanca Marina project. Initially
conceived in the early 1990s, the project faced multiple challenges and significant cost
overruns. Initially projected to cost around 900 million dirhams (approximately $100
million), the project's total cost escalated to an estimated 5 billion dirhams (approximately
$500 million) due to various complications [39] . This ambitious development faced multiple
delays and budget increases due to design changes, unforeseen technical challenges, and
administrative inefficiencies, ultimately doubling in cost. The project encountered significant
governance issues, with the initial investor, Groupe Der Krikorian (GDK), struggling to
secure necessary permits and financial resources, leading to protracted legal battles and
eventual withdrawal. Over its development, the project underwent numerous design revisions
to align with international standards, which expanded its scope to include luxury hotels,
residential areas, commercial spaces, and extensive green spaces. These changes significantly
increased the overall costs. Additionally, the project's location and the technical challenges
associated with building on reclaimed land added complexity and expense, with initial
groundwork alone costing around $20 million. This project illustrates the broader issues
within the Moroccan construction sector, where insufficient planning and management
practices lead to significant financial setbacks.
Globally, project delays and cost overruns are prevalent issues, but these challenges are
particularly acute in developing countries (Le-Hoai et al., 2008)[29]. The economic
difficulties in these nations often result in financial constraints for construction projects.
Moreover, managing construction projects in developing countries presents unique challenges
due to factors such as political instability, scarcity of human resources, and the impact of
inflation.
For instance, in Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran reported that between 2002 and 2012, the
direct costs associated with delays in building construction projects amounted to an estimated
USD 21 billion (Shahab and Chileshe, 2021)[30]. Samarghandi et al. (2021)[31] investigated
the causes of delays and cost overruns in Iranian construction projects, finding that over two-
thirds of respondents identified excessive design changes as a primary factor contributing to
these issues.
Through extensive surveys and studies, Rahman et al. (2013) [32] identified the primary
causes of cost overruns in large construction projects in Malaysia. The most critical factors
include fluctuations in material prices and financial and cash flow difficulties faced by
contractors. Additionally, a lack of supervision and site management, insufficient experience,
and time delays significantly contribute to increased costs. Inadequate scheduling and
planning, the use of unskilled subcontractors, design mistakes and changes, and poor
financial site control further exacerbate the issue. These interrelated factors collectively
present significant challenges in managing large construction projects effectively in Malaysia
Enshassi et al. (2010) [35] conducted a study in Gaza to identify the primary causes of cost
overruns in construction projects within occupied Palestine. The authors distributed 120
questionnaires to consultants, owners, and contractors. The findings indicated that material
shortages, high material costs, and a lack of experience and technical knowledge among
workers were the main reasons for cost overruns. Additionally, the study identified a
previously unreported factor: the lack of skilled leaders in project management roles, which
negatively impacts client relationships and overall project performance. According to the
contractors and consultants, difficulties with monthly payments were the most critical factor
contributing to cost overruns, while owners ranked poor contractor management as the most
significant issue.
Morris (1990) identified ten factors that influence cost overruns in construction projects in developing
countries:
2. Delays in construction and the supply of raw materials and equipment by contractors.
4. Resource constraints, including limited funds, foreign exchange, power, and associated auxiliary
readiness.
8. Labor unrest.
9. Natural calamities.
Lean management originated from the lean manufacturing principles, notably the Toyota
Production System [12]. The notable success and benefits derived from the application of
lean principles in manufacturing catalyzed their adoption in the construction sector. The term
"lean construction" was coined by the International Group for Lean Construction during their
inaugural conference in Finland in 1993 [13].
The core of lean methodology involves the systematic elimination of waste throughout all
stages of a work process, while concurrently maximizing value for the customer through
efficient and expedited execution of value-adding activities. According to Dave et al. (2013)
[11], the Last Planner System, initially developed for construction management, has been
extended to include design management. This system aims to enhance labor, resource, and
material productivity, and to ameliorate the management of project variability and the
continuity of workflow.
The implementation of the LPS in design and design management has demonstrated its
effectiveness in promoting project transparency. This is achieved through the use of detailed
schedules, design structure matrices, and performance metrics such as the percent plan
complete (PPC) [14]. The LPS operates as a five-stage planning model, progressing from
milestone planning at the top layer to daily reports and PPC, which functions as the periodic
report, at the bottom layer as demonstrated in figure..
By incorporating these strategies, the Last Planner System (LPS) significantly enhances
project transparency and efficiency, ensuring a more streamlined and productive workflow in
construction and design management projects. Approximately 57% of productive time delays
in the construction industry are attributed to the inadequacies of current project management
tools (Lean Construction Institute, 2014) [20]. Aziz and Hafez (2013) [21] suggested that
effective production system design, involving complex flow management, is achievable
through the collaborative efforts of all participants—architects, engineers, managers, and end
users—during the early phases of the project. Lean production techniques facilitate this
collaboration by integrating and engaging all project participants, thus embodying the
principles of lean construction.
Figure 3. Last Plannar System (LPS) [19]
Sarhan and Fox (2013) identify several barriers to the successful implementation of lean
construction (LC) in the UK construction industry, despite its recognized benefits.
To address these challenges, lean principles have been introduced into the Moroccan
construction industry. However, their adoption is still in the early stages. Therefore, Bajjou
and Chafi (2018) conducted research to identify, prioritize and analyze the challenges to
implement the lean construction in the Moroccan construction industry. followed by unskilled
human resources, followed by unskilled human resources and appear to be of central concern
to Moroccan construction professionals and need to be addressed at an organisational level as
demonstrated in figure 5. They all This reflects the fact that the successful implementation of
lean construction practices cannot be achieved without having a global awareness covering
all those involved in construction projects from top management to the workforce. This
reflects the fact that the successful implementation of lean construction practices cannot be
achieved without having a global awareness covering all those involved in construction
projects from top management to the workforce.
Figure 5. Classification of the main barriers in the Moroccan construction industry according to
responses’ frequency
The study identified nine main barriers to lean construction, which can be categorized
into two groups:
Among these, people-related barriers are considered the most critical, with a response
frequency of 55.1%, as shown in Figure 6. The top two critical barriers—lack of
knowledge about lean construction practices and unskilled human resources—
highlight the urgent need for training programs. These programs are essential to equip
all parties involved in Moroccan construction projects with the necessary skills and
knowledge to successfully implement lean construction.
Figure 6. Classification of people related barriers and organisational barriers
Chapter 3. Methodology
3.1 Prologue
The selection of an appropriate research methodology is crucial for the validity and
reliability of a study. Creedy (2006) [2] described research methodology as a collective of
methods combined to create new beliefs and knowledge, emphasizing its role in bridging
various gaps in existing knowledge. By choosing the right methodology, researchers can
ensure that their findings are robust, credible, and capable of addressing the research
questions effectively.
For this study, the methodology must be clear and explicit to achieve the main objectives.
This research will follow the onion research diagram, a structured framework that layers
different elements of the research process, starting from the outermost layer of research
philosophy, through approaches, strategies, choices, time horizons, and techniques and
procedures at the core as illustrated in figure .
This layered approach ensures a systematic and thorough examination of each aspect of the
research process.
The research philosophy forms the foundational basis of any study, encompassing the beliefs
upon which the research is constructed. It articulates the researcher's views and
assumptions, shaping the strategy and plan of the study, and is influenced by the nature and
development of the knowledge being pursued. Three primary research philosophies operate
on distinct ontological and epistemological assumptions: positivism, interpretivism, and
pragmatism[4].
The primary objective of this study is to identify and rank the factors contributing to cost
overruns in construction projects in Morocco and to explore the implementation of lean and
agile methodologies to mitigate these overruns. Consequently, this paper is grounded in
positivist ontology, which views the world as an objective reality where scientific knowledge
is acquired through empirical research based on measurement and observation. In this
context, all knowledge is considered a posteriori—gained from research rather than human
reasoning. However, this approach means that the theoretical part is formulated from
existing studies. As Saunders et al. (2009) [5] indicated, the research findings of positivist
philosophy are usually quantifiable and observable, lending themselves to statistical
analysis.
Additionally, the study integrates interpretivist ontology, acknowledging the significant roles
of social and cultural aspects in research outcomes. Therefore, this research considers
diverse backgrounds to enhance reliability, recognizing the wide range of factors that could
impact the research topic.
After defining the research philosophy, the next step is to understand how the research will
be conducted. Tengali (2020) [6] argues that most research primarily employs either a
deductive or inductive approach. Phair and warren (2021) [7] support this argument,
providing clear definitions for both methods:
This paper adopts the deductive approach, where conclusions will be drawn from
established propositions and premises. Ultimately, this approach will enable the
determination of whether the hypothesis aligns with findings from pre-existing studies.
Selecting the most appropriate method for collecting research data is essential for assessing
the study. Biggam (2015) [8] identified three main data collection approaches: quantitative,
qualitative, and mixed methods. For this study, a quantitative approach will be employed for
data collection and analysis, as the objective is to rank and determine the relative
significance of various factors contributing to cost overruns in the Palestinian construction
industry.
This approach involves gathering numerical data and applying statistical techniques to
identify patterns and relationships. It is important to consider that the perspectives of
clients, consultants, and contractors will be collected, with their views shaped by specific
contexts and interpretations. These stakeholders will rank the importance of different
factors, providing valuable insights into the causes of cost overruns.