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FOW10 - SB - Note Session 1 - Chapter 5

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15 views6 pages

FOW10 - SB - Note Session 1 - Chapter 5

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REVIEW THEORIES AND PRACTICES CHAP 5

RULES OF PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS

- Random Experiment: an observational process whose results cannot be known


in advance
- Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes ( Denoted S)
- Event: any subset of outcomes in the sample space
Example:
● Ask one Wsu Student which major he will study in Stage 2 - Random
Experiment
● All possible answers he may say {Finance, Marketing, International
Business} - Sample Space
● He said he will study Marketing - Event
Probability
The probability of an event is a number that measures the relative likelihood that
the event will occur.
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
P(A) = 0 ⇒ event can not occur
P(A) = 1 ⇒ event certainly occur
P(S) = P(E1) + P(E2) + . . . + P(En) = 1
Rule of Probability
- Complement of an Event: The complement of an event A is denoted A’ and
consists of everything in the sample space S except event A
P(A) + P(A’) = 1

- Union of Two Events: consists of all outcomes contained either in event A or in


event B or in both
A ∪ B = A or B

Example: Ask one student whether he study SB (A) or PE (B) in one term, The
Union of of two event will be
+ Only SB ( only A)
+ Only PE ( only B )
+ Both SB and PE ( Both A and B )
- Intersection of Two Events: consisting of all outcomes in the sample space S that
are contained in both event A and event B
A ∩ B = A and B

The Probability of A ∩ B is called Joint Probability = P(A ∩ B)

Example: Ask one student whether he study SB (A) or PE (B) in one term, The
Intersection of of two events will be:
+ Both SB and PE ( Both A and B )

- General Law of Addition: - Quy Tắc Cộng


P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

- Mutually Exclusive Events:


If A ∩ B = ϕ, then P(A ∩ B) = 0

If A and B are mutually exclusive: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

- Conditional Probability: The probability of event A given that event B has


occurred
Note: The event B will become Sample Space in Conditional Probability

Example: One company has recruited 50 new employees, the manager want to
calculate
1. Choose one employee randomly, the probability that this person graduated
and has an English certificate.
2. Choose one graduate employee randomly, the probability that this person has
an English certificate
⇒ The second case is Conditional Probability while the first case is the
Joint Probability.

- General Law of Multiplication - Quy tắc nhân

P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B) x P(B)

Independent Event
- Event A is independent of event B if and only if P(A | B) = P(A)

Special Law of Multiplication: When events A and B are independent

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

Exercises: Over 1,000 people try to climb Mt. Everest every year. Of those who try
to climb Everest, 31 percent succeed. The probability that a climber is at least 60
years old is .04. The probability that a climber is at least 60 years old and succeeds
in climbing Everest is .005. (a) Find the probability of success, given that a climber
is at least 60 years old. (b) Is success in climbing Everest independent of age?

Answer:
Call the Probability of success is A ⇒ P(A) = 0.31
Call the Probability of age over or equal 60 is B ⇒ P(B) = 0.04
We have P(A and B) = 0.005
a. Find the P(A | B)
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 0.005
P(A | B) = 𝑃(𝐵)
= 0.04
= 0.125

b. Is A independent from B ?
As P(A) ≠ P(A | B) ( 0.31 ≠ 0.125)
⇒ We can conclude that event A is not independent from event B
CONTINGENCY TABLE

How to Calculate Probability with contingency table


1. Marginal Probability - Single Event
P(A2) = 33/67 = 0.492

2. Joint Probabilities
P(A3 and B3) = 15/67 = 0.223

3. Conditional Probabilities
P(A1 | B3) = 5/32 = 0.156 ( The sample space now is 32 rather than 67)

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