REVIEW THEORIES AND PRACTICES CHAP 6&7

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Discrete probability distribution Continuous probability distribution

● Counting (people,..) ● Measuring (time, length,...)

● Số nguyên ● Số thập phân
● Probability at a point ● Probability in an area
- Uniform - Uniform
- Binominal - Normal distribution
- Poisson - Z-Score
- Hypergeometric - Exponential

Discrete Probability Distributions

- PDF (probability distribution function): shows probability of each X–value
- CDF (cumulative distribution function): shows the cumulative sum of probabilities
For example: When a coin is flipped three times, the sample space will be S = {HHH, HHT,
HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}. If X is the number of heads, then X is a random variable
whose probability distribution is given below:

The probabilities must sum to 1 PDF values of X will sum to 1 CDF approaches 1
Compound events of Discrete Probability Distribution
P( X ≥ 2 ) = 1 - P(X≤1)
P( X > 2 ) = 1 - P(X ≤ 2)
P( X < 2) = P(X ≤ 1)
Continuous Probability Distributions
- PDF: an equation that shows the height of the curve f(x) at each possible value of X.
- CDF: denoted F(x) and shows P(X ≤ x), the cumulative area to the left of a given value
of X.
- P(X = a) = 0 ⇒ P(a < X < b) = P(a ≤ X ≤ b).
Compound events of Continuous Probability Distribution
P( X ≥ 2 ) = 1 - P(X≤2)
P( X > 2 ) = 1 - P(X ≤ 2)
P( X < 2) = P(X ≤ 2)
 CHAPTER 6: DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

I. Expected Value
- Expected value E(X) of a discrete random variable is the sum of all X-values weighted
by their respective probabilities.

Exercise: A die is rolled. If it rolls to a 1, 2, or 3, you win $2. If it rolls to a 4, 5, or 6, you lose
$1. Calculate the expected winnings.
A. 0.5
B. 3.0
C. 1.5
D. 1.0
Explain
P(X=1) = ⅙ , P(X=2) = 1/6, P(X=3) = 1/6 ⇒ The P(X=1,2 or 3) = ⅙ x 3 = ½
P( X = 4,5 or 6) = ½
The expected winnings: 2 x ½ -1 x ½ = 0.5
II. Uniform Discrete Distribution (Simplest discrete models)
- Uniform discrete distribution: describes a random variable with a finite number of
consecutive integer values from a to b.
- Shape: symmetric with no mode
Example: The number of dots on the roll of a die has a uniform discrete distribution with six
equally likely integer outcomes ranging from 1 to 6 X ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Exercise 1: If X is a discrete uniform random variable ranging from one to eight, find
P(X < 6)
A. 0.625
B. 0.500
C. 0.750
D. 0.375
Explain
5−1+1
P(X < 6) ⇒ P(X ≤ 5) = = 0.625
8−1+1
Exercise 2: If X is a discrete uniform random variable ranging from 0 to 12,
Find P(X ≥ 10)
A. 0.1126
B. 0.1666
C. 0.2308
D. 0.2500
Explain
9−0+ 1
P(X ≥10) = 1- P(X ≤ 9) = 1 - = 0.2308
12−0+1
III. Binomial Distribution
- Bernoulli experiment: A random experiment that has only two outcomes: success or
fail (e.g., male/females, head/tail).
- Binomial distribution: describes the sum of n independent Bernoulli random
experiments with constant probability of success.
- Each Bernoulli trial is independent so that the probability of success π remains constant
on each trial.
Example: 40 students, 10 fails, 30 pass. Find P fails ⇒ P(fail) = 1 - P(success) = 1−π = 10/40

Exercise 1: Jankord Jewelers permits the return of their diamond wedding rings, provided the
return occurs within two weeks. Typically, 10 percent are returned. If eight rings are sold today,
what is the probability that fewer than three will be returned?
A. 0.9950
B. 0.9619
C. 0.0331
D. 0.1488
Explain:
P(X<3) = P( X ≤ 2) = Binom.dist(2,8,0.1,1) = 0.9619
Exercise 2: If 90 percent of automobiles in Orange County have both headlights working, what
is the probability that in a sample of eight automobiles, at least seven will have both headlights
working?
 A. 0.6174
B. 0.3826
C. 0.8131
D. 0.1869
Explain:
P(X≥7) = 1 - P(X≤6) = 1 - 0.1869 = 0.8131 ( Use the complementary events to calculate)
Use the excel Formula: =Binom.dist(6,8,0.9,1)
IV. Poisson Distribution
- Poisson distribution: describes the number of occurrences within a randomly chosen
unit of time (e.g., minute, hour) or space (e.g., square foot, linear mile)
+ The events must occur randomly and independently over a continuum of time or
space
Example: Every Wednesday, from 7:00-10:00 AM the Ministop’s customer arrives at a mean
rate of 2 per min. Find the probability that at least 4 customers arrive in one minute on a
particular Wednesday.
⇒ The probability that at least 4 customers arrive in one minute on a particular Wednesday:
find the probability of the number of customers within a fixed interval of time ⇒ use Poisson
Distribution.

Exercise 1: On Saturday morning, calls arrive at TicketMaster at a rate of 108 calls per hour.
What is the probability of fewer than three calls in a randomly chosen minute?
A. 0.1607
B. 0.8913
C. 0.2678
D. 0.7306
Explain:
108 calls/1 hour = 1.8 calls/1 minute (Change to the right unit)
P(X<3) = P(X≤2) = Poisson.dist(2,1.8,1) = 0.7306
Exercise 2: On average, a major earthquake (Richter scale 6.0 or above) occurs three times a
decade in a certain California county. Find the probability that at least one major earthquake will
occur within the next decade.
A. 0.7408
B. 0.1992
C. 0.1494
D. 0.9502
Explain:
P(X≥1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - Poisson.dist(0,3,0) = 0.9502
V. Hypergeometric Distribution
- The hypergeometric distribution is similar to the binomial except that sampling is without
replacement from a finite population of N items.
- The trials are not independent and the probability of success is not constant from trial to
trial.

Exercise: A clinic employs nine physicians. Five of the physicians are female. Four patients
arrive at once. Assuming the doctors are assigned randomly to patients, what is the probability
that all of the assigned physicians are female?
A. 0.0397
 B. 0.0295
C. 0.0808
D. 0.0533
Explain
N = 9 ( Number of item in population)
s = 5 ( Number of success in population)
n = 4 ( Number of items in sample)
x = 4 ( Number of success in sample)
P(X=4) = Hypgeom.dist(4,4,5,9,0) = 0.03907
.
 CHAPTER 7: CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

I. Uniform Continuous Distribution

-Continuous uniform distribution: is similar to the discrete uniform distribution if the x-
values cover a wide range.
- The uniform continuous distribution is sometimes denoted U(a, b).
Example: three-digit lottery numbers ranging from 000 to 999 would closely resemble a
continuous uniform with a = 0 and b = 999

Exercise:A machine dispenses water into a glass. Assuming that the amount of water dispensed
follows a continuous uniform distribution from 10 ounces to 16 ounces, what is the probability
that 13 or more ounces will be dispensed in a given glass?
A. 0.1666
B. 0.3333
C. 0.5000
D. 0.6666
Explain
13−10
P( X ≥ 13) = 1 - P( X ≤ 13) = 1- = 0.5
16−10
II. Normal Distribution (Gaussian Distribution)
- Normal distribution: is always symmetric
Example (for both Normal and Standard normal): The birth weight of Vietnamese newborn
babies is normally distributed with a mean of about 7.5 pounds. What is the probability that a
particular baby weighs fewer than 6 pounds.
⇒ Random variables 𝑋 = the number of babies of a randomly chosen Vietnamese newborn
babies. So 𝑋 can take on fractional values around the mean.

Exercise 1: The lengths of brook trout caught in a certain Colorado stream are normally
distributed with a mean of 14 inches and a standard deviation of 3 inches. What proportion of
brook trout caught will be between 12 and 18 inches in length?
A. 0.6563
B. 0.6826
C. 0.2486
D. 0.4082
Explain
P( 12 ≤ X ≤ 18 ) = P(X ≤18) - P(X≤12)
= Norm.dist(18,14,3,1) - Norm.dist(12,14,3,1) = 0.6563
Exercise 2: In Melanie's Styling Salon, the time to complete a simple haircut is normally
distributed with a mean of 25 minutes and a standard deviation of 4 minutes. For a simple
haircut, the middle 90 percent of the customers will require
A. Between 18.4 and 31.6
B. Between 19.9 and 30.1
C. Between 20.0 and 30.0
D. Between 17.2 and 32.8
Explain

P(x1 ≤ X ≤ x2) = 90%

⇒ P( X ≤ x1) = 5% ⇒ x1 = Norm.INV(0.05,25,4) = 18.4

⇒ P(X ≤ x2) = 95% ⇒ x2 = Norm.INV( 0.95,25,4) = 31.6

III. Standard Normal Distribution:

- There is a different normal distribution for every pair of values of μ and σ ⇒ transform to
produce a standardized variable z:

Exercise 1: Exam scores were normal in BIO 200. Jason's exam score was one standard
deviation above the mean. What percentile is he in?
A. 68%
B. 75%
C. 78%
D. 84%
Explain
z=1
P(Z ≤ 1) = Norm.S.Dist(1,1) = 0.84
Exercise 2: The standard deviation of a normal random variable X is $20. Given that P (X ≤
$10) = 0.1841. From this we can determine that the mean of the distribution is equal to
A. 13
B. 26
C. 20
D. 28
Explain:
P(Z ≤ z) = 0.1841 ⇒ z = Norm.S.Inv(0.1841) = -0.9
x−μ 10−μ
z= ⇒ -0.9 = ⇒ μ = 28
σ 20

IV. Exponential Distribution

-Exponential distribution: The distribution of the time between two customer arrivals
will have an exponential distribution.
Example: Between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Wednesday, patient insurance inquiries arrive at Blue
Choice insurance at a mean rate of 2.2 calls per minute. What is the probability of waiting more
than 30 seconds for the next call?
⇒ Probability of waiting more than 30 seconds for the next call: find the probability of the
time between occurrences of successive events (i.e., the patients’ calls, which is mentioned as the
next call) while more than 30 seconds will flow continuously.
Poisson distribution Exponential distribution

Deals with the number of occurrences in a Deals with the time between occurrences of
fixed period of time successive events as time flows by
continuously
Exercise: If arrivals occur at a mean rate of 3.6 events per hour, the exponential probability of
waiting more than 0.5 hour for the next arrival is:
A. 0.2407
B. 0.1653
C. 0.1222
D. 0.500
Explain
P( X ≥ 0.5) = 1 - P( X≤ 0.5) = 1 - Expon.Dist(0.5,3.6,1) = 0.1653