Solved Probability Exercises

SOLVED PROBABILITIES EXERCISES:

1) Let A = { a1, a2,......, an}

A = {a, a¡2,........., to lr } ; r < n

It is defined: P (A) = #A
#(8)
Show that P(A) is a probability function.

SOLUTION: For P(A) to be a probability function, it must satisfy the 3 axioms

i. P(A) > 0

By definition, the cardinality of a set is the count of elements of such a set, therefore
they are positive.
#(A) > 0, #(Ü) > 0 -> P(A) > 0

ii. P(O) = 1

Just replace in the function P(A)

P(O) = #(02 = 1 -> P(O) = 1

#(42)
iü. p ( U,, A, )= i r=i p (- A í )
iii. (ro . . = #(UjAj) = # (A,.) = #(AJ + #(^ 2 )+ ..................................................................
(
-j=1 7 ' ) #(2) #(0) #(2)
iv. ( UQL,A, ) = #A, + #A2) + = P (Ai ) + P (A,) +.......................................
51 ' #(Q)
1
#(92) 1
' ¿
'

P ( U” 1 A ; ) = E y “ i P(A y )

Therefore P (A) is a probability function.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

2) Let: A = {0, 1, 2,...........}

e-33x
It is defined: P(A) = Zx € ax

Show that P(A) is a probability function.

SOLUTION: For P(A) to be a probability function, it must satisfy the 3 axioms

Yo. P(A) > 0

The e3 is a positive constant.

3 It is always greater than zero for every value of x.
The factorial of a number is defined as positive.

Therefore: P(A) > 0

ii. P(O) = 1

P(O) = s. -33* -33* 00

C0 . 32ix=0x! 3e3 = 1
x! x= x!

0
P(O) = 1
Aj ) = 2j1P(Aj)
iii. P (Uj=1

Sx e -33*
x!

Sx € -33*
A 1 AU 2 U x!
Sx €
-33* -33*
At
1 x! A
2
CO1 2x e A j -33*
j= x!

CO P(Aj)
7=1

Therefore P (A) is a probability function.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

3) Let: A = {1, 2, 3,..........}

It is defined: P (A) = Zx e a
Show that P(A) is a probability function.

SOLUTION: For P(A) to be a probability function, it must satisfy the 3 axioms

i. P(A) > 0
2X > 0 / ( )-1 > 2 > 0
When adding summation, equality is preserved.
Therefore: P(A) > 0

ii. P(O) = 1

P(O) = 2Q2
P (O)
= ZX- g) X = S ?.. (2) - @ X - = ,1, - 1 = 1
P(O) = 1
iii. P ( Uj=1Aj ) = 2je1P(Aj)

Sx e
U92,Aj 2x
SX 1
A, u 2 u.................2x
€
SX 14 1
A 2x + 2x e A x +
€
CO
¡= 12x and
Aj2x
2j1P(Aj) =
Therefore P (A) is a probability function.
4) Let: Q = {x/x € R}; (-Co, co)
i2.
It is defined: P (A) = f —=e 2 dx
x € A/n
Show that P(A) is a probability function.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

SOLUTION: For P(A) to be a probability function, it must satisfy the 3 axioms

i. P(A) > 0
=,1
The —= , is a positive constant.
V2T
x2
e2 is always greater than zero for every value of x.

Therefore: P(A) > 0

ii. P(O) = 1

2 2
m1_£ 2M-Í x2.
P (O) = J_co72ne 2 dx = /2nJ0 e 2 dx (We set u = —)

-or

P
(O) = t rC/2 = $ 7 = 1

P(O) = 1
Yo". P ( Uj=1Aj ) = 1 7=1 P{A j)
2 2
f „ —=e-2dx + f „ _1=e-2dx +..............................=
x € A1V2m x€A2

x2
211 -e2dx =
fJ=- x € Aj/2n

17=i p ( A J^ =

Therefore P (A) is a probability function.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

SOLUTION: We know that: P (Ø) = 0 and P (Ω) = 1

From the diagram it can be seen that: AU ^ ^ = Ω

If we apply probability function in equality, we would have:

P(AU ^^ ) = P(Ω)
P(A) + P( ^^ )- P(A^^^ ) = P(Ω)
P(A) + P( ^^ ) - P(Ø) = P(Ω)
P(A) + P (^^ ) – 0 = 1
P(A) + P( ^^ ) = 1
P( ^^ ) = 1 – P(A)

6) Prove that: P (Ø) = 0

SOLUTION: Just analyze and realize that: Ω = Ω U Ø

If we apply probability function in equality, we would have:

P (Ω) = P (Ω U Ø) / Since Ω and Ø are exclusive events: P (Ω U Ø) = P (Ω) + P (Ø)

P(Ω) = P(Ω) + P(Ø)

1 = 1 + P (Ø)

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

P(Ø) = 0

SOLUTION: Just look at the diagram to realize that ^ ^ ^ ^ , A ^ B and ^ ^ ^ B

are mutually exclusive events, that is, their intersection is empty.

i. For the first part we have that: B = ^^ ^ ^ B^ U (A ^ B^ , then, we

apply the probability function in the equality.
P (B) = P ^^^ ^ ^ B^ U (A ^ B^^

P(B) =P ^^^^ B^ + P(A ^B )

P( ^^^ B ) = P(B) – P(A ^ B^

ii. For the second part we have: A = ( ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ U (A ^ B^ , then, we

apply the probability function in the equality.
P(A) = P(( ^^^^^ U (A^ B ^^

P(A) = P( ^^^^^ + P (A ^B )

P( ^^^^ ) = P(A) – P(A ^B^

8) Prove that: P (AU ^ ) = P (A) + P ( ^ ) - P (A ^ ^ )

SOLUTION: Using the same diagram, we join A and B and we have:

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

AUB = ( ^ ^ ^ ^ ) ^ (A ^ B ) ^ ^^ ^ ^ B^ , then, we apply probability function in

the equality.

P (AUB) = P ^^ ^ ^ ^ ^ + P (A ^ B^ + P ( ^ ^ ^ B ) / We use the two proofs

already done.

P(AUB) = P(A) – P(A ^B^ + P(A ^B^ + P(B) – P(A ^B^

P (AU B ) = P (A) + P ( B ) - P (A ^B )

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

9) If P and P2 are probability functions, then prove that:

P(A) = X1 Pt (A) + X2 P2 (A), is also a probability function,
whereX1 and X2 are positive numbers such that: X1 + X2 = 1

SOLUTION: For P(A) to be a probability function, it must satisfy the 3 axioms

i. P(A) > 0
Since P t and P 2 are probability functions, P t and P 2 are positive functions. X1
and X2 are positive numbers too.
Therefore: P(A) > 0

ii. P(O) = 1

P (O) = X1 P (Q) + X2 P 2 (Q) / Since P and P 2 are probability functions, P, (n)= i

and P 2 (n)= i
P(O) = X1+ X2 = 1
P(O) = 1

10) Prove that: 1 - P (AC) - P (B c ) < P (A n B)

SOLUTION: It is known that: P (A n B) < 1

P(AUB ) < 1
P(A)+P ( B ) -P( AnB ) < 1
P(A)+P ( B )- 1 < P (A nB )
1 - 1 + P (TO)+ P( B ) - 1 < P(A nB )
1 - (1 - P (A)) - (1 - P (B)) < Q (TO nB )
1 - P (AC) - P (B c ) < P (A nB)

11) Prove that: P ((AUB)/C) = P (A/C) + P (B/C) - P ((A n B )/C)

SOLUTION: We know that: P (AU B ) = P (A) + P ( B ) - P (A n B )

P ((AUB)/C) = P ((AUB) n C)_P ((A n c)u (B nc)) _ p (A nc)+ p (B nc)- p ((A nc)n (B nc)) p (c)
= p(c) = p(c)
P ((A UB)/C) = PCnQ + B '
" "'P(c)p(c)
p ((anc)n (B nc))
p(C)

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

P ((AUB)/C) = P (A/C) + P (B/C) - P ((A n B )/C)

PROBABILITY EXERCISES:

1) Let: Q = {0,1, 2, 3,

n
( ^ )x k a n ~ k

Show that:
P (A) = Zx € A (Q)p*(1- P ) n ~ x is a probability function.

2) Let: A = {0, 1, 2 ^}

Show that:

P (A) = L, e A p*(1- P )* ; 0 < ps 1

It is a probability function.

and3)Calculate:
P (B cIf) P= (AC) = 1, P (AU B ) =6 5
1a)
3
P (A n B )

b) P ( An B c )

c) P ( AcnB )

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

4) Try that:
P { ^^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ } = 1 – (P (A) - P (A ^^ )) – (P (B) -
P (A ^^ ))

5) Let A, B, C be events. Try that:

P ^^^ ^ ^ ^^ /C) = P (B/C) – P ((A ^^ )/C)

6) The probability that Carlos passes Probability is 0.55 and that

he passes Calculus III is 0.40. If the probability that you pass
both courses is 0.25. What is the probability that Carlos:

a) Pass at least one of the two courses?

b) Pass only one of the two courses?
c) Didn't pass either course?
d) Approve only Odds?

7) Prove that if A is any event: 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

8) The CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY function defined by:

P (4 n B)
P(A/B) =
P(B)
Show that P (A/B) is a probability function.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

SOLVED PROBABILITIES EXERCISES:

12) Do all the proofs of the urn theorem (WITH AND WITHOUT REPLACEMENT)

SOLUTION:

1 ^^^ Some definitions:

M = Total elements
^ ^ = Elements of type I
^ ^^ = Type II elements n = number of selected

Now I define the following events:

^ ^ = The first k elements selected are of type I and the remaining (nk) are of type II. ^ ^ = There
are exactly k elements of type I in the selected sample.
A basic outline of the situation:

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

We will divide the situation into two cases:

1) The selection made is WITHOUT REPLACEMENT:

First we will calculate the cardinality of O:

O = (X,, X2, X3,...................., Xn)/ X, = M possibilities

X2 = M - 1 possibilities

X n = [M - (n - 1)] possibilities

Using the multiplicative principle we find # (O):

#(O) = M(M - 1).........[M - (n - 1)]

(M - n)(M - (n + 1))
# (O) = M (M - 1) [M - (n— 1)] (M - n)(M - (n + 1))
g M'
# (O) = 7-----—
'7 (Mn)!

Making a small fix:

Now the same but for the UK event: ____
UK = (X1 X2,......, XK, XK+1, Xn)/ X 1 = M i possibilities
X 2 = M i - 1 possibilities

XK = [M i - (k - 1)] possibilities
XK+1 = M - M i possibilities
XK+2 = M - M i - 1 possibilities

Xn = [ M - M i - (n - k - 1)] possibilities

Using the multiplicative principle we find # (UK ):

# (UK ) = M, (M, - 1).......[M, - (k - 1)] ( M - M,)( M - Mi - 1)...................[ M - Mi - (n - k - 1)]

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

Making a small fix:

— 1).....[M, — (k — 1)] (Mj-k) ^M ,-(k+iy .1*
1
(M I -k)(M I -(k+1)) 1
# (UK ) = M, ( 1MM¡ )( MM¡- 1)....[ M — M 1¡ — (n — k — 1)] ¡ M Ml k)
^1
' 11
(MM-(nk))...................1
(M,
__________________________________•
# (I )K= M ! * (MM , )!
(M j -ky. (MM j -(n-ky)i

Then:
# (U K ) = M , ! (MM , ) (M-n).
# (ü) ~< J Mr-ky {MM j -(nk')')! M!
P ( UK )
=
Doing an analysis of the second event V K , we realize that the number of elements of
type I are the same, what changes is the way of combining them, therefore we conclude that:
n
P( VK ) = ( n )P( UK )

Factoring and playing with the terms, we arrive at the following expression:
P ( V K ) = ( Mc J )( Mi—M J ) / O I

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

2) The selection made is WITH REPLACEMENT:

O = (X1, X2, X3, , Xn)/ X = M possibilities

X2 = M possibilities

X n = M possibilities

Using the multiplicative principle we find # (O):

__________£
# (O) = M n

X
UK = (X1, X2,......, XK XK+1..........., Xn)/ i = M¡ possibilities

X 2 = M ¡ possibilities

X K = M ¡ possibilities
X K+1 = M — M ¡ possibilities
X K+2 = M — M ¡ possibilities

X n = M — M ¡ possibilities

# (U K ) = M¡ k (M My)nk
—

P( UK ) #(UK) = Mj {M- Mi) ~k#

k n

(22) = M n
=
We make a small
arrangement:
P( UK )
=
nk
M,"(M-My)"-k
M n-k+k

Where:
P (VK) = ( n k ) P ( U
K ) 4 P (Vk) = ( n k ) (,)* (1-)""

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

13) The production of a certain artifact is given by 3 machines:

Machine I produces 20% of the total, but 5% of it is defective.

Machine II produces 40% of the total, but 6% of it is defective.

Machine III produces 40% of the total, but 8% of it is defective.

An item is selected from the total produced by the three machines:

i) Determine the probability that the item is defective.

ii) Determine the probability that the selected item comes from the
machine II knowing that the item is defective.

SOLUTION:

i. We define the following events:

^ ^ = The selected item comes from the i – th machine, i = 1, 2, 3.
^ = The selected item is defective.

From the statement we can conclude the next:

P ( Uj=1Aj ) = 2je1P(Aj) 3
Sx € 3
Sx € 3
My)nk 13

We want to calculate P (B), for that, we use the TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM
P (B) = ∑ ^ ^ ^^ P ^B / ^ ^ ^ P ^^ ^ ^ = 0.2*0.05 + 0.4*0.06 + 0.4*0.08 = 0.066

ii. We will use BAYES' THEOREM:

P(B/A2)P(A2) = 0.06*0.4
-
P(B) 0.066
0.36
P( ^^ / B) = 14) There is an urn with 7 tokens, of which 3 are white and the rest are
green.

3 tokens are selected at random from the urn, one at a time and without replacement:

i) Calculate the probability that the first two selected pieces are white and the last
one is green.
ii) Calculate the probability that there are exactly two white and two green pieces.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

SOLUTION:

1. Analyzing the statement, we realize that what is requested is nothing more than P (
^^)
I define: ^ ^ = The first two selected tiles are white and the rest are green.
We use the formula of the urn theorem WITHOUT REPLACEMENT: 214141
P ( ^ ^ ) = ^ ^ ! ! ^^!! ^^!! = 0.114
Another way is by occupying the cardinality of each event:

^ ^ = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ , ^ ^ ) / ^ ^ = 3 possibilities

^ ^ = 2 possibilities

^ ^ = 4 possibilities

# (^^) = 3*2*4 = 24

# (Ω) = 7*6*5 = 210

# (OR--,) 24
P ( ^ ^ ) = # ^^ ^ ^ = ^^^ = 0.114

11. In this case, the statement refers to ^ ^ :

P
(v,) = ()(4)/ (7) = 0.342

15) In an alarm system, the probability of a hazard occurring is 0.1. The probability that
the alarm will operate knowing that danger occurs is 0.95. The probability that the alarm works
given that there is no danger is 0.03. Find the probability that:

i) There was no danger knowing that the alarm worked.

ii) There is a danger or the alarm does not work.
iii) The alarm does not work.

SOLUTION:

First I define the following events:

A = Alarm works
B = Danger occurs

We already know that:

P(B) = 0.1
P(A/B) = 0.95
P( ^/ ^^ ) = 0.03
i) In this case we are asked to calculate P ( ^ ^ / ^^

P ( ^/^ ^ ) = ^ ^^ ^ ^^^ P (A/B) = ^ ^^ ^^^

P{ }
Bc
P (B)

________P (An BC) 0.03 = ^ ^^ ^ ^ ^ 0.95 = ^ ^^ ^^^

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises
0.9 0.1

P ^^^^ ^ ^ = 0.027 P^A^B ) = 0.095

P (A) = P ( ^/^ ^ ) ^ ^^ ^ ^ + P ^A ^ B ) P (B)
P (A) = P ^^^^ ^ ^ + P ^A^B )
P(A) = 0.027 + 0.095
P(A) = 0.122
P ( ^ ^ / ^^ = ^ ^^ ^ ^^^ = ^.^^^ = 0.221
Q (A) 0.122
ii) Now we are asked to calculate P ( ^ ^ UB)
P( ^^ UB ) = P ( ^^^^^^^ )
P( ^^ UB) = 1 – P ( ^^^^ )
P( ^^ UB ) = 1 – 0.027
P( ^^ UB ) = 0.973

iii) P( ^^ ) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.122 = 0.878

16) 4 people meet. What is the probability that at least two students were born in the
same month?

SOLUTION:

First we will work with the cardinality of the sample space

Ω = ( ^^ , ^^ , ^^ , ^^ ) / ^^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities

Using the multiplicative principle we obtain that:

#^Ω^ = 12*12*12*12 = 12^ = 20736

Now I define: A = At least 2 students were born in the same month.

But to avoid complications we will work with the event complement, that is:

^ ^ = No student was born in the same month.

^ ^ = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ , ^ ^ , ^ ^ ) / ^ ^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 11 possibilities
^ ^ = 10 possibilities
^ ^ = 9 possibilities
NOTE: The possibilities are reducing in relation to the months.

Using the multiplicative principle we obtain that:

#^^^^ = 12*11*10*9 = 11880

Then: P ( ^ ^ ) = #^^^^ = ^^^^^ = 0.572
#(92) 20736

But we want P(A), so: P(A) = 1 - P( ^^ )

P(A) = 1 – 0.572 = 0.428

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

17) A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it actually
occurs. However, the test also gives a “false positive” result in 1% of healthy people to whom it
is administered. (That is, if the test is performed on a healthy person, with probability 0.01 the
test result will imply that the person suffers from the disease). If 0.5% of the population actually
has the disease, what is the probability that a person will have the disease if the test is positive?

SOLUTION:

The first thing is to define the events:

A = People have the disease

^ ^ = People do not have the disease
B = Blood test is positive

From the statement we can conclude that:

P(A) = ^.^ = 0.005
100

P( ^^ ) = 1 – 0.005 = 0.995

P(B/A) = 0.99
P(B/ ^^ ) = 0.01

In the statement they ask us to calculate P (A/B)

P(B/A)P (A)
P^B/A^P (A)+ P (B/AC)P(AC)
P(A/B) = 0.332
18) 8 students from the Calculus III course went on vacation to Europe. They took
different flights and agreed to meet at the Grand Hotel, Paris. It turns out that in that city there
are eight hotels with that name. What is the probability that they all choose different hotels?

SOLUTION:

First let's look at the cardinality of the sample space:

Ω = ( ^^ , ^^ , ………, ^^ )/ ^^ = 8 possibilities
^ ^ = 8 possibilities

^ ^ = 8 possibilities

Using the multiplicative principle we obtain that:

# (Ω) = 8^

Now I define: A = The students choose different hotels

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

A = ( ^^ , ^^ , ………, ^^ )/ ^^ = 8 possibilities
^ ^ = 7 possibilities

^ ^ = 1 possibilities

# (A) = 8!
. # (TO) 8! ,„
P(A) = ^^^ = ^ = 0.0024
# (Q) 88

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises
19) In each of 10 urns ^ ^ , ^ ^ , ………, ^ ^^ there are 10 tokens. The nth urn (1 ≤n ≤10)
contains n white tokens and (10 - n) black tokens. An urn is selected at random and a token is
drawn from it. If it is known that the selected token is white, what is the probability that the
token comes from urn 4?

SOLUTION:

If we analyze the statement we can conclude that:

^ ^ has 1 white and 9 black pieces
^ ^ has 2 white and 8 black pieces

^ ^^ has 10 white and 0 black pieces

I define: ^ ^ = Select urn n ^ ^ = Select a white ball from urn n

P ( ^^ ) = ^^^ P ( ^^ ) = ^^^
If we use the TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM:
P(B) = P( ^^ / ^^ ) P( ^^ ) +P (^^ / ^^ ) P (^^ ) +
PB = ^ ^ + ^ ^ + + ^^ ^
( ) = 10 10 10 10 .............................. 10 10 +
P(B10/U10)P(U10)
P(B) = ^^^^ ( 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10)
P(B) = 0.55
The statement asks us to calculate P ( ^ ^ /B)
41
= ^^ ^^ = 0.072 0.55
P( ^^ / B) P(B/U)P(U4)
p(B) 20) In his free time, the teacher of teachers and
=
director of the Mathematics Pedagogy degree at UFRO, the
beloved professor PH (COLOCOLINO!!!), dedicates himself to fishing. On one of those days PH
has caught ten fish, but two of those are smaller than the minimum legal size. That day was not
entirely good for PH, as a fisheries inspector inspected his basket. The inspector randomly
selected (WITHOUT REPLACEMENT) two fish out of the total of ten. What is the probability that
you do not select any of the illegal size fish?

SOLUTION:

Our problem is quite similar to the urn problem, only instead of tokens, we have fish. Which is
not a problem, just remember that you have to define the events correctly:

A = No fish are of illegal size

^ ^ = All fish are illegal size
Ω = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 10 possibilities

^ ^ = 9 possibilities

# (Ω) = 90

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

A = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 8 possibilities

^ ^ = 7 possibilities

#(A) = 56

P(A) = 0.62

Another way:

^ ^ = 1 ^^ fish is legal
^ ^ = 2 ^^ fish is legal
^ ^ = ^^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 8 possibilities # (Ω^) = 10 # (^^) = 8

^ ^ = ^^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 7 possibilities # (Ω^) =9 # (^^) = 7

P (A,n A2) = P (A,) P (A2/A,)

P(A, A2) = 2; = 0.62

It goes without saying that: A = ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ , for the second way of solving the problem.

21) The probability that a regularly scheduled flight takes off on time is 0.83, that it
arrives on time is 0.82, and that it takes off and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the probability that:

a) Arrive on time since you took off on time

b) Take off on time since you arrived on time

SOLUTION:

It is enough to define the events in a good way and use the data given by the statement.

I define: D = Flight takes off on time

L = Flight arrives on time

It is concluded that: P (D) = 0.83

P(L) = 0.82
P(D ^ L) = 0.78

a) They ask us to calculate P (L/D)

P (L n D) 0.78
P (L/D) = ^ ^ ^ = ^.^^ = 0.94
Q (D) 0.83

b) They ask us to calculate P (D/L)

P (D n L) 0.78
P (D/L) = ^ ^^ ^ ^^ = ^.^^ = 0.95
P (L) 0.82

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
 Solved Probability Exercises

22) The probability that Alice studies for her final STATISTICS exam is 0.2. If you study, the
probability of passing the exam is 0.8, while if you do not study, the probability is 0.5.

a) What is the probability that Alice passes STATISTICS?

b) Since Alicia passed her exam. What is the probability that he has studied?

SOLUTION:

I define the following events:

E = Alicia studies for her STATISTICS exam

A = Alice approves STATISTICS

From the statement we obtain that:

P(E) = 0.2
P( ^^ ) = 0.8
P(A/E) = 0.8
P(A/ ^^ ) = 0.5

a) We are asked to calculate the probability of event A, that is: P (A)

P (A) = P (A ^ E) + P (A ^ ^ ^ ) Then we use BAYES THEOREM to decompose.

P (A) = P (A/E) P (E) + P (A/ ^ ^ ) P ( ^ ^ )
P(A) = 0.8*0.2 + 0.5*0.8
P(A) = 0.56

b) The second part corresponds to a CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY in which we are asked to

calculate P (E/A)
P (E n 4) = P (A n E) = P (A/E) P (E) = 0.8*0.2
P (A) -P ( A) -P
( A) -
0.56
P(E/A) = P(E/A) = 0.29

PROBABILITY EXERCISES:
1) In a room there are M students, of which ^ ^ say that they love mathematics
and ^ ^^ that they don't like it. A sample of 2 students is extracted
(One at a time and WITHOUT REPLACEMENT). Determine the probability that:

i. The first student selected likes mathematics

ii. The second student selected likes mathematics
iii. Both selected students like mathematics.

2) When answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows

the answer or guesses. Let p be the probability that you know the answer and

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

(1 - p) be the probability that you guess. Suppose a student who guesses the
answer guesses correctly with probability ^^ , where m
is the number of alternatives in the multiple choice. What is the conditional
probability that a student knew the answer to the question since her answer
was correct?

3) A legal die has been rolled four times. What is the probability that the number
3 will be obtained in two of the four rolls?

4) A family has two children. Assume that each child has the same probability of
being a boy or a girl.
What is the conditional probability that both children are boys, given that:
i. The eldest son is a boy
ii. At least one of the children is a boy

5) Of a total of 60 different numbers sold in a mini-lottery, 20 of these will have

prizes. If 6 different numbers are purchased, what is the probability that 2 of
these purchased numbers will be awarded?

6) A box C1 contains 12 black tokens and 8 red tokens. Another identical box C2
contains 10 black tokens and 20 red tokens.
a) A box is taken at random and a token is drawn. Find the probability that
the selected tile is black.
b) A box is taken at random and a token is taken out that turns out to be
black. Find the probability that she comes from box C1

7) Events A and B are said to be independent if P(A/B) = P(A) or equivalently P(A

^ B) = P(A)P(B).
Test that events:
i. A and ^ ^
ii. ^ ^ and B
iii. ^ ^ and ^ ^ They are independent events.

8) Three events A, B and C are independent.

Test that events:
i. A, ^^ and C
ii. A , ^^ and ^^
iii. ^ ^ , ^ ^ and C They are independent events.

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University
Solved Probability Exercises

9) An insurance company divides people into two classes, those who are
accident-prone and those who are not. Their statistics show that a prone
person will have, in no more than a year, an accident with probability 0.4;
while this probability decreases to 0.2 for non-accident-prone people. If we
think that 30% of the population is prone to accidents. What is the probability
that a person who purchases a new policy will have an accident in no more
than one year?

10) From the previous exercise, suppose that a new insured has had an accident
no more than one year after purchasing his policy. What is the probability that
it is accident prone?

11) A raffle consists of 100 tickets among which there are two winners. Determine
the smallest number of tickets that need to be purchased so that the
probability of winning at least one prize is not less than ^ ^ .

Professor: Antonio Sanhueza.

Assistant: Pablo Atuán M.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Border University