Solved Probability Exercises
Solved Probability Exercises
It is defined: P (A) = #A
#(8)
Show that P(A) is a probability function.
i. P(A) > 0
By definition, the cardinality of a set is the count of elements of such a set, therefore
they are positive.
#(A) > 0, #(Ü) > 0 -> P(A) > 0
ii. P(O) = 1
P ( U” 1 A ; ) = E y “ i P(A y )
0
P(O) = 1
Aj ) = 2j1P(Aj)
iii. P (Uj=1
Sx e -33*
x!
Sx € -33*
A 1 AU 2 U x!
Sx €
-33* -33*
At
1 x! A
2
CO1 2x e A j -33*
j= x!
CO P(Aj)
7=1
It is defined: P (A) = Zx e a
Show that P(A) is a probability function.
i. P(A) > 0
2X > 0 / ( )-1 > 2 > 0
When adding summation, equality is preserved.
Therefore: P(A) > 0
ii. P(O) = 1
P(O) = 2Q2
P (O)
= ZX- g) X = S ?.. (2) - @ X - = ,1, - 1 = 1
P(O) = 1
iii. P ( Uj=1Aj ) = 2je1P(Aj)
Sx e
U92,Aj 2x
SX 1
A, u 2 u.................2x
€
SX 14 1
A 2x + 2x e A x +
€
CO
¡= 12x and
Aj2x
2j1P(Aj) =
Therefore P (A) is a probability function.
4) Let: Q = {x/x € R}; (-Co, co)
i2.
It is defined: P (A) = f —=e 2 dx
x € A/n
Show that P(A) is a probability function.
i. P(A) > 0
=,1
The —= , is a positive constant.
V2T
x2
e2 is always greater than zero for every value of x.
ii. P(O) = 1
2 2
m1_£ 2M-Í x2.
P (O) = J_co72ne 2 dx = /2nJ0 e 2 dx (We set u = —)
-or
P
(O) = t rC/2 = $ 7 = 1
P(O) = 1
Yo". P ( Uj=1Aj ) = 1 7=1 P{A j)
2 2
f „ —=e-2dx + f „ _1=e-2dx +..............................=
x € A1V2m x€A2
x2
211 -e2dx =
fJ=- x € Aj/2n
17=i p ( A J^ =
1 = 1 + P (Ø)
P(Ø) = 0
P(A) = P( ^^^^^ + P (A ^B )
i. P(A) > 0
Since P t and P 2 are probability functions, P t and P 2 are positive functions. X1
and X2 are positive numbers too.
Therefore: P(A) > 0
ii. P(O) = 1
P(AUB ) < 1
P(A)+P ( B ) -P( AnB ) < 1
P(A)+P ( B )- 1 < P (A nB )
1 - 1 + P (TO)+ P( B ) - 1 < P(A nB )
1 - (1 - P (A)) - (1 - P (B)) < Q (TO nB )
1 - P (AC) - P (B c ) < P (A nB)
P ((AUB)/C) = P ((AUB) n C)_P ((A n c)u (B nc)) _ p (A nc)+ p (B nc)- p ((A nc)n (B nc)) p (c)
= p(c) = p(c)
P ((A UB)/C) = PCnQ + B '
" "'P(c)p(c)
p ((anc)n (B nc))
p(C)
PROBABILITY EXERCISES:
1) Let: Q = {0,1, 2, 3,
n
( ^ )x k a n ~ k
Show that:
P (A) = Zx € A (Q)p*(1- P ) n ~ x is a probability function.
2) Let: A = {0, 1, 2 ^}
Show that:
It is a probability function.
and3)Calculate:
P (B cIf) P= (AC) = 1, P (AU B ) =6 5
1a)
3
P (A n B )
b) P ( An B c )
c) P ( AcnB )
4) Try that:
P { ^^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ } = 1 – (P (A) - P (A ^^ )) – (P (B) -
P (A ^^ ))
12) Do all the proofs of the urn theorem (WITH AND WITHOUT REPLACEMENT)
SOLUTION:
M = Total elements
^ ^ = Elements of type I
^ ^^ = Type II elements n = number of selected
^ ^ = The first k elements selected are of type I and the remaining (nk) are of type II. ^ ^ = There
are exactly k elements of type I in the selected sample.
A basic outline of the situation:
X2 = M - 1 possibilities
X n = [M - (n - 1)] possibilities
(M - n)(M - (n + 1))
# (O) = M (M - 1) [M - (n— 1)] (M - n)(M - (n + 1))
g M'
# (O) = 7-----—
'7 (Mn)!
XK = [M i - (k - 1)] possibilities
XK+1 = M - M i possibilities
XK+2 = M - M i - 1 possibilities
Xn = [ M - M i - (n - k - 1)] possibilities
Then:
# (U K ) = M , ! (MM , ) (M-n).
# (ü) ~< J Mr-ky {MM j -(nk')')! M!
P ( UK )
=
Doing an analysis of the second event V K , we realize that the number of elements of
type I are the same, what changes is the way of combining them, therefore we conclude that:
n
P( VK ) = ( n )P( UK )
Factoring and playing with the terms, we arrive at the following expression:
P ( V K ) = ( Mc J )( Mi—M J ) / O I
X2 = M possibilities
X n = M possibilities
X
UK = (X1, X2,......, XK XK+1..........., Xn)/ i = M¡ possibilities
X 2 = M ¡ possibilities
X K = M ¡ possibilities
X K+1 = M — M ¡ possibilities
X K+2 = M — M ¡ possibilities
X n = M — M ¡ possibilities
# (U K ) = M¡ k (M My)nk
—
(22) = M n
=
We make a small
arrangement:
P( UK )
=
nk
M,"(M-My)"-k
M n-k+k
Where:
P (VK) = ( n k ) P ( U
K ) 4 P (Vk) = ( n k ) (,)* (1-)""
SOLUTION:
We want to calculate P (B), for that, we use the TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM
P (B) = ∑ ^ ^ ^^ P ^B / ^ ^ ^ P ^^ ^ ^ = 0.2*0.05 + 0.4*0.06 + 0.4*0.08 = 0.066
P(B/A2)P(A2) = 0.06*0.4
-
P(B) 0.066
0.36
P( ^^ / B) = 14) There is an urn with 7 tokens, of which 3 are white and the rest are
green.
3 tokens are selected at random from the urn, one at a time and without replacement:
i) Calculate the probability that the first two selected pieces are white and the last
one is green.
ii) Calculate the probability that there are exactly two white and two green pieces.
SOLUTION:
1. Analyzing the statement, we realize that what is requested is nothing more than P (
^^)
I define: ^ ^ = The first two selected tiles are white and the rest are green.
We use the formula of the urn theorem WITHOUT REPLACEMENT: 214141
P ( ^ ^ ) = ^ ^ ! ! ^^!! ^^!! = 0.114
Another way is by occupying the cardinality of each event:
^ ^ = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ , ^ ^ ) / ^ ^ = 3 possibilities
^ ^ = 2 possibilities
^ ^ = 4 possibilities
# (^^) = 3*2*4 = 24
P
(v,) = ()(4)/ (7) = 0.342
15) In an alarm system, the probability of a hazard occurring is 0.1. The probability that
the alarm will operate knowing that danger occurs is 0.95. The probability that the alarm works
given that there is no danger is 0.03. Find the probability that:
SOLUTION:
16) 4 people meet. What is the probability that at least two students were born in the
same month?
SOLUTION:
Ω = ( ^^ , ^^ , ^^ , ^^ ) / ^^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities
^ ^ = 12 possibilities
But to avoid complications we will work with the event complement, that is:
17) A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it actually
occurs. However, the test also gives a “false positive” result in 1% of healthy people to whom it
is administered. (That is, if the test is performed on a healthy person, with probability 0.01 the
test result will imply that the person suffers from the disease). If 0.5% of the population actually
has the disease, what is the probability that a person will have the disease if the test is positive?
SOLUTION:
P( ^^ ) = 1 – 0.005 = 0.995
P(B/A) = 0.99
P(B/ ^^ ) = 0.01
SOLUTION:
^ ^ = 8 possibilities
A = ( ^^ , ^^ , ………, ^^ )/ ^^ = 8 possibilities
^ ^ = 7 possibilities
^ ^ = 1 possibilities
# (A) = 8!
. # (TO) 8! ,„
P(A) = ^^^ = ^ = 0.0024
# (Q) 88
SOLUTION:
SOLUTION:
Our problem is quite similar to the urn problem, only instead of tokens, we have fish. Which is
not a problem, just remember that you have to define the events correctly:
^ ^ = 9 possibilities
# (Ω) = 90
A = ( ^ ^ , ^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 8 possibilities
^ ^ = 7 possibilities
#(A) = 56
P(A) = 0.62
Another way:
^ ^ = 1 ^^ fish is legal
^ ^ = 2 ^^ fish is legal
^ ^ = ^^ ^ )/ ^ ^ = 8 possibilities # (Ω^) = 10 # (^^) = 8
21) The probability that a regularly scheduled flight takes off on time is 0.83, that it
arrives on time is 0.82, and that it takes off and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the probability that:
SOLUTION:
It is enough to define the events in a good way and use the data given by the statement.
22) The probability that Alice studies for her final STATISTICS exam is 0.2. If you study, the
probability of passing the exam is 0.8, while if you do not study, the probability is 0.5.
SOLUTION:
P(E) = 0.2
P( ^^ ) = 0.8
P(A/E) = 0.8
P(A/ ^^ ) = 0.5
PROBABILITY EXERCISES:
1) In a room there are M students, of which ^ ^ say that they love mathematics
and ^ ^^ that they don't like it. A sample of 2 students is extracted
(One at a time and WITHOUT REPLACEMENT). Determine the probability that:
(1 - p) be the probability that you guess. Suppose a student who guesses the
answer guesses correctly with probability ^^ , where m
is the number of alternatives in the multiple choice. What is the conditional
probability that a student knew the answer to the question since her answer
was correct?
3) A legal die has been rolled four times. What is the probability that the number
3 will be obtained in two of the four rolls?
4) A family has two children. Assume that each child has the same probability of
being a boy or a girl.
What is the conditional probability that both children are boys, given that:
i. The eldest son is a boy
ii. At least one of the children is a boy
6) A box C1 contains 12 black tokens and 8 red tokens. Another identical box C2
contains 10 black tokens and 20 red tokens.
a) A box is taken at random and a token is drawn. Find the probability that
the selected tile is black.
b) A box is taken at random and a token is taken out that turns out to be
black. Find the probability that she comes from box C1
9) An insurance company divides people into two classes, those who are
accident-prone and those who are not. Their statistics show that a prone
person will have, in no more than a year, an accident with probability 0.4;
while this probability decreases to 0.2 for non-accident-prone people. If we
think that 30% of the population is prone to accidents. What is the probability
that a person who purchases a new policy will have an accident in no more
than one year?
10) From the previous exercise, suppose that a new insured has had an accident
no more than one year after purchasing his policy. What is the probability that
it is accident prone?
11) A raffle consists of 100 tickets among which there are two winners. Determine
the smallest number of tickets that need to be purchased so that the
probability of winning at least one prize is not less than ^ ^ .