Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

SYST 542
Decision Support Systems
Engineering

Instructor: Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Fall Semester, 2006

Unit 1: Decision Making

and Decision Support
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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Learning Objectives

• Understand course objectives &

requirements
• Define a DSS
• Describe the history of DSS
• Name and define the major functional
components of a DSS
• Describe the DSS lifecycle
• Describe the role of DSS in decision
making and the kinds of decisions most
amenable to DSS

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Course Objectives
• Introduce decision support systems
• Provide sound basis for:
– Designing DSS
– Managing DSS lifecycle process
– Evaluating DSS
• Provide systems view of DSS development
and integration into organization

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Course Requirements
• Weekly discussion question (30% of grade)
– Asynchronous discussion
– In-class discussion with assigned facilitator
– Written summary
– 50% participation, 50% content
• Project (50% of grade)
– Small groups
– Design and implement DSS for problem of your choice
– Written report
– Oral presentation
• Paper review (15% of grade)
– Read a paper from the literature
– Write report on paper
– Give oral presentation
• Lead discussion session (5% of grade)

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

A decision support system is a

computer-based system that supports
the decision making process
• Assist decision makers in semi-structured tasks
• Support not replace human judgment
• Highly interactive
• Improve effectiveness of human decision makers

“A decision support system is a system under the control of one

or more decision makers that assists in the process of decision
making by providing an organized set of tools to impart
structure to portions of the decision-making situation and
improve the ultimate effectiveness of the decsion outcome”
- Marakas

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Why DSS?
• Increasing complexity of decisions
– Technology
– Information:
» “Data, data everywhere, and not the time to think!”
– Number and complexity of options
– Pace of change
• Increasing availability of computerized support
– Inexpensive high-powered computing
– Better software
– More efficient software development process
• Increasing usability of computers
– COTS tools
– Customization

Computer support for decision making

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Rational Decision Making

• Rationality is the use of reason to make the best
choice one can in the circumstances
– What does “best” mean?
• Aspects of rationality (Kant)
– Cognitive rationality: What to believe?
– Practical rationality: What to do?
– Evaluative rationality: What to value?
• GOOD-D mnemonic for rational decision making
– Identify the goal to be achieved by the decision
– Identify the options available to the decision maker
– Evaluate the likely outcomes if each option is chosen
– Decide which option is best
– … And then Do it!
• Decision makers need support with all GOOD-D
elements
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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Decision Making Process

Define and
Structure the
Problem

Generate Gather, Collect

Options and Fuse Data

Evaluate
Options

Select
Option(s)

Implement
Selected
Option

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Types of Problems
• Structured
– Repetitive
– Standard solution methods exist
– Complete automation may be feasible
• Unstructured
– One-time
– No standard solutions
– Rely on judgment
– Automation is usually infeasible
• Semi-structured
– Some elements and/or phases of decision making process
have repetitive elements

DSS most useful for repetitive aspects

of semi-structured problems
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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

History of DSS
Operations Research
Information Systems Management Science AI/Expert Systems
1940’s Optimization
Transaction Cognitive Science
Processing Systems Expert Systems
Simulation Judgment &
MIS Knowledge Decision Making
Representation
Human/Computer
Interaction
2000+
Decision Support Systems

Goal: Use best parts of IS, OR/MS, AI & cognitive

science to support more effective decision making
Thanks to Andy Loerch

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

History: Business Computing

• World War II Era • 1980-90’s
– Introduction of computers - Military and – Movement toward
scientific applications customization & flexibility
– Computers were for “number – Movement toward new user
crunching”
interaction metaphors
• 1950’s – Increasing emphasis on
– Business applications intelligent systems
– Transaction processing systems:
billing & payroll • 21st Century
– Large mainframe computers – Move from “stovepipes” to
interoperable systems
• 1960-70’s
– Distributed systems
– Use of computers in management
– Large volumes of data stored in – Web services
computers
– Invention of relational databases and
SQL
– Management Information Systems born
– Automation of paper-and-pencil
processes for repeatable tasks

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

History: Artificial Intelligence

• 1950’s • 1980-90’s
– Introduction of symbolic – Commercialization of AI
computing – Expert system shells
– Newell and Simon: General – Connectionist movement
Problem Solver
– Machine learning
– Differentiation from
scientific computing – Incorporation of methods
from decision theory and
» “AI is about symbols and
not numbers”
operations research

• 1960-70’s • 21st Century

– First expert systems – Agent-based systems
» e.g., HEARSAY I (Speech – Distributed AI
recognition); MYCIN – Semantic Web & Intelligent
(Medical diagnosis) “Web Bots”
– Knowledge representation -
e.g., frames, rules
– Fuzzy logic

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

History: OR/MS
• World War II Era • 1980-90’s
– Application of scientific method to – Movement toward
operational problems customization & flexibility
» e.g., efficient movement of troops & – Attention to organizational
equipment and human factors
• 1950’s – Incorporation of methods
from artificial intelligence
– OR/MS established as a discipline
– Model bases and model
– Standard methods developed management
• 1960-70’s • 21st Century
– Expansion of OR/MS – Embedded systems
– Business applications – Agile, reconfigurable supply
– Government: McNamara’s “whiz kids” chains
– Problems with appropriate use and – OR for everyone
acceptance » Excel Solver
» Limited computing power » OR in middle school
» Exclusion of factors not easily – OR in a Web Services world
quantified
» Human factors issues in how OR/MS
integrated into organizations

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Decision Support Trends

• IT is increasingly pervasive
• Users are increasingly computer savvy
• Computer hardware is increasingly smaller
and more powerful
• Systems are increasingly interconnected
• The Web is increasingly interwoven into all
aspects of our lives
• Demand for usable, flexible, powerful decision
support will continue to grow
• Decision support will be embedded into a wide
variety of consumer and business products

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Discussion
• Give an example of some decision support
systems you have encountered
– What kind of decision was supported?
– How did it work?
– How helpful was it?
• What makes for successful decision support?
• What pitfalls should be avoided?

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Some Terminology
• DBMS - System for storing and retrieving data and
processing queries
• Data warehouse - Consolidated database, usually
gathered from multiple primary sources, organized and
optimized for reporting and analysis
• MIS - System to provide managers with summaries of
decision-relevant information
• Expert system - computerized system that exhibits
expert-like behavior in a given problem domain
• Decision aid - automated support to help users conform
to some normative ideal of rational decision making
• DSS - provide automated support for any or all aspects of
the decision making process
• EIS (Executive information system) - A kind of DSS
specialized to the needs of top executives

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Traditional Emphasis

Data Dialogue Model

DBMS/
DW
MIS

ES

DA

DSS/
EIS

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Humans and Computers:

Complementary Strengths
• Human decision makers
– Good at seeing patterns
– Can work with incomplete problem representations
– Exercise subtle judgment we do not know how to automate
– Often unaware of how they perform tasks
– Poor at integrating large numbers of cues
– Unreliable and slow at tedious bookkeeping tasks and
complex calculations
• Computers
– Still inferior to humans at pattern recognition, messy
unstructured problems
– Good at integrating large numbers of features
– Good at tedious bookkeeping
– Rapid and accurate at complex calculations

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

The Challenge:
Find and Exploit Synergy
• Computers provide cognitive tools
– You would not build a house without appropriate tools
– Complex decision problems require cognitive tools to assist with:
» Collecting and organizing relevant information
» Weighing multiple factors relevant to choice
» Integrating large numbers of factors and combining to form overall
evaluation
» Presenting results so rationale for choice is clear
» Analyzing multiple “what-if” scenarios

• Goal of DSS:
– Use strengths of computer to augment strengths of human
– Improve overall effectiveness of decision making process

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Danger: The Worst of Both Worlds

• A poorly designed or improperly deployed
decision support system can be
– Worse than leaving users unassisted
– Worse than replacing the users with automated system
• Can you explain why?
• How do we keep this from happening?

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Achieving the Promise

• Understand the stakeholders
– Involve stakeholders early and often
– Listen to feedback (especially negative!)
• Understand the task
– Objectives to be achieved by decision
– Current decision making process
– Human and organizational factors
• Understand the technology
– What parts of current process can be automated
– COTS versus custom development
– Integration of components and non-automated functions
• Understand the DSS development process
– Co-evolution of process, DSS, human skill sets
– Why change is resisted
– Importance of good systems engineering

Iterate! Evaluate! Improve!

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

DSS Characteristics
• Supported task • Level of support
– Structurability – Display information?
– Level (strategic / tactical / – Suggest solutions?
operational) – Select solutions?
– Decision process phase – Modify suggestions with
– Application area user feedback?
– Real-time / non real-time • Information sources
• Supported user(s) – User input
– Type of job – Internal database
– Single user / multiple users – External database
» Distributed? – Internet (web / email)
» Interactive? – Sensor observations
– Sophistication with
computers
– Mode of interaction

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Functional Library of

Components Model
Management
Models

of a DSS

Knowledge
Engine
Dialogue
Data Management
Management

User & External

Environment
External
Data Sources

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

System Life Cycle

Identification Production &

of Need Manufacturing

Concept
Retirement
Definition
Training

Preliminary
System Deployment
System
Integration
Design
Operation

Detailed Maintenance
Configuration
Item Design Refinement
Time
Analyze Design Build Test Operate
Systems engineers
Figure 1.1: Buede, 2000 play major role

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Lifecycle Models
• There are many lifecycle models
– Can you name some and describe their properties?
• All have phases for:
– Definition
– Development
– Deployment
• Lifecycle model for DSS development must
provide for:
– User involvement and evaluation throughout design &
development
– Iterative evaluation-centered redesign

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Stakeholder Involvement
• Most system errors can be traced to poor
requirements definition
• Problems caught early are much less
expensive to fix
• Communication gaps are inevitable and
should be planned for
– Users understand current process but can’t imagine how
technology can change process
– Developers understand technology but not user’s job
– Each party thinks its expertise is most important
• Requirements definition must be iterative and
evolutionary
– “I can’t tell you what I want but I’ll know when I see it”

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Focus on Constant Improvement

• Improvements happen because we learn from
experience
• We can learn from experience only if:
– We can tell whether we have succeeded or failed
– We can tell why we have succeeded or failed
• Good engineering involves interplay between
– Theory
– Analysis
– Reality testing
• Document your experience
– Identify problems
– Trace causes
– Identify lessons learned
– Incorporate lessons learned into next project
• Many of the most difficult problems are interpersonal &
organizational, not technical
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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Case Study:
Planning A Program of Study
• The Problem:
– Students at GMU must plan a program of study to meet degree
requirements
– Existing PatriotWeb system provides degree evaluation to
check whether requirements have been met but no planning
function to help students plan courses that meet requirements
– There are constraints on feasible schedules
» Requirements (major and concentration)
» Prerequisites
» Work and childcare constraints
» Course time conflicts
» When courses are offered
• The Users:
– GMU students (graduate and undergraduate)
• DSS Objective:
– Provide a decision support tool to help students plan a program
of study
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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Case Study Objectives

• Use program of study DSS as an illustrative
example of concepts discussed in course
• Use program of study DSS as focus for
asynchronous discussions
• Project groups may (if they choose) do a
project on some aspect of the case study

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

In Summary...

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 Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

References
• Andriole, S., Handbook of Decision Support Systems, TAB Books, Inc., 1989.
• Buede,D. The Engineering Design of Systems: Models and Methods. New York:
Wiley, 2000.
• Marakas, G. Decision Support Systems, Prentice-Hall, 2003.
• Sprague, R.H. and Carlson, E.D. Building Effective Decision Support Systems.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1982.
• Turban, E., Aronson, J.E., Liang, T.P. Decision Support Systems and Intelligent
Systems. Prentice Hall, 2005.

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