CHAPTER 9

Probability and Categorical Data

9-1. Permutations and Combinations

Fundamental Counting Principles
If an event can occur in m different ways and another event can occur in n different ways, then there
are m × n total ways that both events can occur.

A factorial is the product of a whole number n , and all the whole numbers less than n and greater than
or equal to 1.
n=! n(n − 1)(n − 2)  3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
For example, 6! = 6 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 720
When a group of objects or people is arranged in a certain order, the arrangement is called a permutation.
n!
The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is defined as n Pr = .
(n − r )!
When a group of objects or people is selected, and the order is not important, the selection is called
a combination.
n!
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is defined as n Cr = .
r !(n − r )!
The basic difference between a permutation and a combination is that order is considered in a permutation
and order is not considered in a combination.

Example 1 □ There are 4 roads from Town A to Town B , and 3 roads from Town B to Town C .
If a person travels from Town A to Town C and back, passing through Town B in
both directions, how many different routes for the trip are possible?

Solution □ A → B 4 different routes

B → C 3 different routes
C → B 3 different routes
B → A 4 different routes
Therefore, there are 4 × 3 × 3 × 4 , or 144, different possible routes for the trip.

Example 2 □ a. There are 2 chairs in a row. If there are 5 students, how many ways can the
seats be filled?
b. How many different groups of 2 students can be formed from 5 students?

Solution □ a. In this arrangement, order is considered. AB and BA are not the same.
Use n Pr
5! 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
=
5 P2 = = 20
(5 − 2)! 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
There are 20 possible arrangements.

b. In this arrangement, order is not considered. Therefore, if AB is taken,

then BA is excluded.
Use n Cr .
5! 5!
5=
C2 = = 10
2!(5 − 2)! 2!3!
There are 10 possible combinations.
140 Chapter 9

Exercise - Permutations and Combinations

Questions 1 and 2 refer to the following Questions 4 and 5 refer to the following
information. information.

A hiker is going to hike a mountain where there are Sixteen players participated in a tennis tournament.
four trails to the top of the mountain. Three players will be awarded for first, second, and
third prize.
1
4
In how many different ways can he hike up and
down the mountain? In how many different ways can the first, second,
and third prizes be awarded?

2
5
If the hiker does not want to take the same trail
both ways, in how many different ways can he How many different groups of 3 people can get
hike up and down the mountain? prizes?

3 6
In how many ways can the letters of the word How many different four-letter patterns can be
SUNDAY be arranged using only 3 of the letters formed from the word MATH if the letters cannot
at a time? be used more than once?
Probability 141

9-2. Rules of Probability

An outcome is one of the possible results that can occur as a result of a trial.
The probability of event A , denoted P( A) , is:

the number of times the desired outcome occurs

P( A) = .
the total number of outcomes
If the outcome of one event does not influence the outcome of the second event, then the events are said to be
independent. When drawing at random with replacement, the draws are independent. Without replacement,
the draws are dependent.
If two events A and B are independent, then the probability that both events will occur is
P ( A and=B ) P ( A) ⋅ P ( B ) .
If two events A and B are dependent, then the probability that both events will occur is
P( A and= B) P( A) ⋅ P( B following A) .
If two events A and B cannot occur at the same time, then the probability that either A or B occurs is
P( A or= B) P( A) + P( B) .

Example 1 □ A bag contains 6 red balls and 4 blue balls. Two balls are selected one at a time.
a. Find the probability of selecting a red ball then a blue ball, if the first ball is
replaced before the second one is drawn.
b. Find the probability of selecting a red ball then a blue ball, if the first ball is
not replaced before the second one is drawn.
c. Find the probability that both balls are the same color, if the first ball is
not replaced before the second one is drawn.

Solution □ a. Since the first ball is replaced, the selection of the first ball does not influence
the selection of the second ball. The event is independent.
6 4 6
P(r and b) = P(r ) ⋅ P(b) = ⋅ =
10 10 25

b. Since the first ball is not replaced, the selection of the first ball influence the
selection of the second ball. The event is dependent.
P(r and=b) P(r ) ⋅ P(b following r ) The conditional probability P (b following r )
6 4 4 means that the second ball is blue on the
= ⋅ = condition that the first ball is red.
10 9 15

c. The event is dependent.

P(r and=r ) P(r ) ⋅ P(r following r )
6 5 30 5 ← 5 red marbles are left
⋅ = = P (r following r ) =
10 9 90 9 ← 9 total marbles are left
P(b and=
b) P(b) ⋅ P(b following b)
4 3 12 3 ← 3 blue marbles are left
=
⋅ = P (b following b) =
10 9 90 9 ← 9 total marbles are left
P(both same color)
= P(r and r ) + P(b and b) P ( A or=
B ) P ( A) + P ( B )
30 12 42 7
= + = =
90 90 90 15
142 Chapter 9

Exercise - Rules of Probability

Questions 1 and 2 refer to the following Questions 4 and 5 refer to the following
information. information.

A bag contains 15 balls, numbered 1 through 15. Janis is making a flight reservation for her business
trip. The travel agent informs that the probability that
1 her flight to Phoenix will arrive on schedule is 90%
and the probability that her flight from Phoenix to
What is the probability of selecting a number that Atlanta will arrive on schedule is 80%.
is odd or a multiple of 5?
4
What is the probability that both flights arrive on
schedule?

2
A ball is selected at random then replaced in the
bag. A second selection is then made. What is 5
the probability that the first number is a prime
number and the second number is a multiple of 3? What is the probability that her flight to Phoenix
is on schedule but her flight from Phoenix to
Atlanta is not?

3 6
In a box of 12 headlamps 3 are defective. If
S ={−5, −2, −1, 4} T= {−2, 3, 7} you choose two headlamps without replacement,
what is the probability that both headlamps are
Product p= s ⋅ t is formed from the two sets defective?
above, in which s is a number from set S and t
is a number from set T . What is the probability
that the product s ⋅ t will be a positive number?
 Probability 143

9-3. Categorical Data and Conditional Probabilities

The probability of event A , given that event B occurred, is called the conditional probability of A
given B and is denoted by P ( A B) . [Note: The vertical bar between A and B is read “given.”]
P( A and B) population of A in B
=
P( A B) =
P( B) population of B
Two-way contingency table is a type of table in a matrix format that displays relationships between two
or more categorical variables.
The table on below left shows 300 randomly selected voters from a large city, categorized by age and voting
preferences. The age of voters is the row variable, and the name of parties is the column variable.
The totals are placed in the right and bottom margins of the table and thus are called marginal frequencies.
The total of the marginal frequencies is the grand total, which is the size of the sample.
The frequencies in the contingency table are often expressed as percentages or relative frequencies.
The table on below right shows the contingency table expressed as percentages of the grand total.

Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total

Under 40 84 63 147 Under 40 28% 21% 49%

40 or over 60 93 153 40 or over 20% 31% 51%

Total 144 156 300 Total 48% 52% 100%

Example 1 □ The table below shows the results of a survey regarding Proposition A from
two regions of a large city. Four hundred registered voters were surveyed.

Voted For Voted Against No Opinion for

Proposition A Proposition A Proposition A Total

East 90 75 17 182

West 104 96 18 218

Total 194 171 35 400

a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person has no opinion

on Proposition A ?
b. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person is from East
given that he or she voted for Proposition A ?
c. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person voted against
Proposition A and is from West?

Solution □ a. Since 35 of the 400 voters have no opinion on Proposition A ,

35 7
P (No opinion for Proposition A) = or .
400 80
b. This is a conditional probability question. There are 194 voters who voted for
Proposition A , and 90 of them are from East. Thus,
90 45
P (population of East in the population Voted For Proposition A ) = or .
194 97
96 6
c. P(against Proposition A and from West)= =
400 25
144 Chapter 9

Exercise - Categorical Data and Conditional Probabilities

Questions 1- 5 refer to the following information.

The table below shows the number of college faculty members in three departments: biological sciences,
education, and social sciences.

Biological Education Social

Total
Sciences Sciences
Male 10 26 19 55
Female 15 21 17 53
Total 25 47 36 108

1 4
What is the probability that a randomly chosen What is the probability that a randomly chosen
faculty member is a female given that she is from faculty member is from Biological Sciences given
Biological Sciences? that the faculty member is a male?

2
What is the probability that a randomly chosen
faculty member is a male or from Social Sciences?
5
For Biological Science and Education faculties
1 1
combined, of the female and of the male
6 4
faculty members are associate professors. If
a person is randomly chosen from these two
departments, what is the probability that a
3 faculty member is an associate professor?
What is the probability that a randomly chosen
faculty member is a female from Education
department or a male from Social Sciences?
Probability 145

Chapter 9 Practice Test

3
Questions 1-4 refer to the following If one student is randomly selected from the
information. group what is the probability that the student
is a male Economics major?
Economics History Music
Male 24 20 19 24
A)
Female 18 22 17 120
42
The table above shows the distribution of a group B)
120
of 120 college students by gender and major.
24
C)
42
1
24
If one student is randomly selected from the group, D)
63
what is the probability that the student is a History
major?

36
A)
120
40 4
B)
120 If a Music major is selected at random, which of
42 the following is closest to the probability that the
C) student is a female?
120
46 A) 0.298
D)
120
B) 0.315
C) 0.386
D) 0.472

2
If a male student is selected at random, which of
the following is closest to the probability that he
is a Music major?

A) 0.270
B) 0.302
C) 0.317
D) 0.381
146 Chapter 9

Questions 5 and 6 refer to the following Questions 7 and 8 refer to the following
information. information.

Under 30 30 or older Total Number of Visits to Movie Theaters by Students

Male 3 12 None 1 to 2 3 or more
Female 20 1
Juniors x 2x x
Total 8 24 32 2
y 5 1
Seniors y y
The incomplete table above shows the distribution 2 2
of age and gender for 32 people who entered a
tennis tournament. The table above summarizes the number of visits
to movie theaters by 168 juniors and 152 seniors
5 during summer vacation.
If a tennis player is chosen at random, what is the
probability that the player will be either a male 7
under age 30 or a female aged 30 or older?
If a student is selected at random from those who
visited movie theaters at least once, what is the
15 probability that the student is a junior?
A)
32
18 16
B) A)
32 39

20 18
C) B)
32 39
20
24 C)
D) 39
32
22
D)
39

6
If a person is selected at random from the 30 or
older player group, what is the probability that 8
the person is a female?
If a student is selected at random, which of the
following is closest to the probability that the
5 student is a senior and visited movie theaters
A) 1 or 2 times?
20
15 A) 0.156
B)
20
B) 0.205
9
C) C) 0.297
24
D) 0.324
15
D)
24