PROBABILITY

STATISTIK TEKNIK – TEKNIK SIPIL UNIVERSITAS NAROTAMA – Rizal Bahaswan

VOCAB :

 Event : A collection of outcomes of procedure

 Sample Event : A single outcome
 Sample space : All simple events (every possible outcome)

LOW PROBABILITY = RERA / UNUSSUAL OCCURANCES

 Procedure Event Sample Space

- Flip 1 time - Head - {H,T}

- Flip 3 time - 1 head, and 2 Tails - {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT,

(the expected will TTT, TTH, THT, THH}
happen) (each individu is
sample event)

Probability : the likelihood of an event occurring

Prob :P
event : A, B, C, etc
P(A) : the prob of event A happening
3 Types of probability

1. Observed Prob : Prob that is estimated based on observation - (what did happen)
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 "A" 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑃 𝐴 =
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑
2. Classical Prob : Prob based on the chance of an event occurring (each sample event
must have and equal chance of occurring) – (what should happen)
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 "A" 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑃 𝐴 =
# 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 (𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒)
3. Subjective Prob : educated guess

PROBABILITY are always between 0 and 1

P=0 Impossible event
P=1 Certain event
 The prob of selecting a heart from a deck of cards

𝑃 ♥ = = 0,25 Classical (should happen)

 Flip coin 100 times, you get 64 tails

𝑃 𝑇 = = 0,64 Observed ( what did happen)

 The doctor guess on the chance of getting infected by the virus is 30% (Subjective Prob)
 Budi completed 385 out of his first 528 passes. Find the prob that Budi will complete a pass!

𝑃 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝 𝐴 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 = = 0,729 = 72,9% Observed

 Random deck of cards, prob of selecting a “2”

𝑃 ♥ = = 0,76 = 76% Classical (should happen)

 A pooling regarding cloning
91 people consider it is Good
901 people consider it is Bad
20 people have no opinion
Find the prob selecting a person who consider cloning is a good idea.

𝑃 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 = = 0,09 = 9% Observed

 Find prob a bird will poop on your car today? (subjective)

 Find prob that if a couple has 3 kids, two will be boys (assuming equal chance of boy/girl)
Procedure : having 3 cildrens
event : 2 boys and 1 girl
sample space : {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGB, GBG, GGB, GBG, GBB}

𝑃 2𝐵 1𝐺 = = 0,375 = 37,5% Classical (should happen)

LAW OF THE LARGE NUMBER

 AS INCREASING OBSERVED RESULTS, IT IS GETTING TO APPROACH CLASSICAL

“OR”
THE MORE PROCEDURE IS REPEATED THE CLOSSER OBSERVED PROBABILITY WILL
GET TO CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
Complementary Events

 Events when are mutually exclusive (can not happen in the same time)
 Complement !
The complement of event A is denoted Ā and is all the outcomes when event A does not
occur.
 Event : rolling a “5”
Complement : not rolling a ‘5’
{1,2,3,4,6}
𝑃 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 5 =
Has to be 1 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴̅ = 1
𝑃 5 =
Additional Rules

 Compound event : an event which joins two or more sample events

 Additional rules
The meaning of ‘and’ in this
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) case is in a single trial A and B
*
occurring at the same time.

Non Disjoint events Disjoint events Events which

are Mutually
Exclusive, they
can not
happen in the
same time
Additional Rules

1. Prob of selecting a heart or a spade

𝑃(♥ or ♠) = 𝑃 ♥ + 𝑃 ♠ − 𝑃(♥ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ♠) This events is mutually exclusive,
because there is no chance that the
= + − 0 picked card in a single trial is heart
and spade
= = = 0,5

2. Prob of selecting a diamond or a King

𝑃(♦ or K) = 𝑃 ♦ + 𝑃 𝐾 − 𝑃(♦ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐾)
This events is non mutually exclusive,
= + − because there is a chance that the
picked card in a single trial is a K-Diamond
= = 0,31
Additional Rules

 Complementary events
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐴̅ = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴̅ − 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴̅ = 1
= 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴̅ = 1
𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴̅
𝑃 𝐴̅ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
 Given P(girl) = 0.512
then, P(boy) = 𝑃 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙 = 1 − 𝑃(𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙)
= 1 – 0.512
= 0,488
Multiplication Rules

 P(A and B) = Probability of “A” occurring and then “B” occurring in successive trials
 Conditional Probability = The probability of event occurring given that some other event
has already occurred
P(B/A) = The probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred
 Independent events = the occurrence of one event of one event does not affect the
occurrence of another event
If A&B are independent;
P(B/A) = P(B) ; what happen to the A does not affect the B
Multiplication Rules

 P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B/A)

recall : if independent; P(B/A) = P(B) then; P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)

• Roll a dice
P(2/3) = P(2) = 1/6 (Independent)
Prob of ‘2’ occurred after the prob of ‘3’. The prob of ‘3’ does not affect the prob of ‘2’

• Drawing cards
P(Q/9) w/ Replacement = 4/52 = 1/13 (Independent)
Put back the ‘9’ after picking it up, then draw the Q

P(Q/9) w/o Replacement = 4/51 (dependent)

do not put back the ‘9’ after picking it up (keep the ‘9’ out of the cards)
Multiplication Rules

 Bag of marbles (3 red, 2 blue, 4 green)

P(G and B) w/ rep = P(G) . P(B/G) = 4/9 . 2/9 = 8/81
P(G and B) w/o rep = P(G) . P(P/G) = 4/9 . 2/8 = 1/9
P(R and R) w/o rep = P(R) . P(R/R) = 3/9 . 2/8 = 6/12 = 1/12
P(B and B and B) w/o rep = 2/9 . 1/8 . 0/7 =0
 Dice ; P(1 and 2 and 3 and 4) = 1/6 . 1/6 . 1/6 . 1/6 = 1/1296 (Independent)
 Cards ; P(A and K and Q and J and 10) w/o rep (dependent)
4/52 . 4/51 . 4/50 . 4/49 . 4/48 =….. (very low to draw a straight cards)
Probability of complementary event with
at least one

 “At least one” means one or more

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
 The complement of “at least one” is “none” 𝑃𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)
P(at least one) = 1 – P(none)

• Flip coin 3 times, prob of getting at least one head

Sample space events {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTT, TTH, THT, THH}
P(at least one head) = 7/8

P(at least one head) = 1 – P(no head)

= 1 – P(all tails)
= 1 – P(T and T and T) Independent
=1–½.½.½
= 1 – 1/8 = 7/8
Counting

 Fundamental Counting Rules

if you have an event that can occur ‘m’ ways, and another event that can occur ‘n’
ways, the together they can occur m.n ways

• Security code of 4 digit numbers : 1st digit can’t be zero

= . . .
= 9000 total combinations
then, prob of guessing with 1 try = 1/9000

• There are 5 digit, with 1st digit can’t be zero or one, and the last digit can’t be zero
= . . . .
= 72000 total combinations
 Permutation ; A different arrangement of items
n unique items = n! arrangements
but sometimes, you just need a few
 Rules for Permentation ;
1. n different items
2. r the # of item selected out of ‘n’ to be arranged
3. Arrangement / order matter
 There are 58 counties in CA. you need to visit 4 of them. How many ways can you do that?
58 . 57 . 56 . 55 = 10182480
! !
58𝑃 = = = 10182480
! !

 There are 10 people who want to be president, vice president, Secretary, General. We
want to select 4 people to lead the country.
! !
10𝑃 = = = 5040
! !

it means there are 5040 different ways the cabinet be constructed

 !
 For non-distinct items :
!. !…
n = total items
n1, n2, … = are the count of non-distinct items

• 3 apples, 2 orange, 5 bananas

in this case, each item are not unique
!
!. !. !
= 2520 ; if we change the order of the fruits, it will not give a different picture

• How many ways could you plan to have a family with 7 girls and 5 boys?
 Combinations ;
1. n ; distinct items
2. Select r item
3. Arrangement does not matter ; ABC same as CAB

• Go on 5 rides out of 25 rides at Dufan. You don’t care about which order you can go on
the rides. How many combination of 5 rides could be select?
!
25𝐶 = = 53130
! !
Latihan Soal

1. Dari 100 orang yang mengikuti ujian ternyata 40 orang lulus matematika ekonomi, 30 orang
lulus pengantar ekonomi mikro dan 25 orang lulus dalam matematika ekonomi dan pengantar
ekonomi mikro. Berapa banyak orang yang gagal dalam kedua mata kuliah tersebut?
2. Suatu hari Hotel X menerima tamu sebanyak 100 orang dari sebuah agen perjalanan. Tanpa
diketahui oleh manajemen hotel, ada 6 orang tamu yang mengidap penyakit menular. Jika 2
orang tamu dipilih secara acak (satu persatu tanpa pemilihan) dari 100 orang tersebut,
kemudian dilakukan pemeriksaan kesehatan. Berapa peluang bahwa kedua tamu tersebut
mengidap penyakit menular tersebut?
3. Peluang seorang konsumen yang masuk kesebuah restauran akan memesan makanan adalah
0,2. Jika ia memesan makanan, peluang bahwa ia akan memesan minuman adalah 0,8.
Berapa peluang bahwa konsumen tersebut akan memesan makanan dan minuman tersebut?
4. Enam pelamar pria dan 5 pelamar wanita akan diterima hanya 4 pelamar. Dari 4 pelamar
yang akan diterima tersebut 1 orang wanita. Dengan berapa cara penerimaan pelamar
dapat dilakukan?