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Team Cards System

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Team Cards System

The Team Cards Betting System

Having started FootyStats in 2017, we have seen many changes in the way our users
bet, and the stats that they care about. One of the major trends that we have noticed in
the last 18 months is betting on cards.

Because of this, we thought it would only be right to put together a betting system
based around cards, allowing you to turn a profit consistently due to the lack of
discipline seen by teams and the booking habits of referees around the world. First, we
will o er an introduction into card betting.

The market that we will be focusing on is Team Cards or Team Booking Points,
depending on the bookmaker and value on o er. The former is similar to betting on
goals, you can bet on the number of cards a team will receive. An example: “Preston To
Receive +1.5 Cards”. I would expect average odds to be ~2.00, depending on the stats
and team. The latter is similar to a bet on the result of a fixture. Youʼre predicting which
team will get more “Booking Points”. 1, X, or 2.

We will explore the following:

Markets O ered
Bookmakers for Card Betting
Referee Stats
Finding Fixtures and Teams
Finding/Placing The Bet

Markets O ered

Thereʼs a wide-range of card markets available to you through various bookmakers,

including the following:

Number of Cards (Over/Under)

Card Handicap
Asian Total Cards
Team Cards
Most Booking Points

Thereʼs many more, including individual player bookings. However, I deem these to be
the most valuable for long-term profits. Thatʼs because we have a huge array of stats
available here at FootyStats that ties directly into these markets, as well as
comprehensive referee profiles and trends.

Bookmakers for Card Betting

The majority of bookmakers will o er card markets. However, the league coverage is
usually limited to the major leagues, with a few exceptions. The bookmakers only
supporting the major leagues is so they can avoid risk.

Firstly, The quality of refereeing is (or at least, should) be better in the top divisions. A
card-happy referee making the wrong decisions will result in lost revenue for the
bookmakers. Secondly, card markets are hard to price up. We o en see markets being
added, only for a huge amount of money being placed and the lines being quickly
adjusted or removed. The di iculty of pricing up these markets is amplified when
working with lower leagues, so they just avoid it all together.

From my personal experience, the best sites for betting on cards are:

WilliamHill
SkyBet
Bet365

In that order. Bet365 is really careful about the fixtures they support for cards, whereas
WilliamHill seems to have more than most bookmakers and consistently o ers markets
such as “Cards in Both Halves”.

Tip: If youʼre using Bet365, you can type “cards” into the search bar and you will see a
list of fixtures containing card markets.

Important Referee Stats

Itʼs well known that each individual referee comes with his/her own style and leniency
when it comes to o iciating the game. Imagine a tough tackle in the first few moments
of the game. One referee might brandish a yellow card as a way of setting the tone for
the rest of the players, whilst another might consider the time of the match and give the
player a warning.

You can view the stats for referees from within the individual match pages, like this one.
Simply click on the Cards tab and scroll until you see the refereeʼs profile. You will have
access to the following stats:

Total Games
Cards Per Match
Cards Per Match for Home/Away
Over X Cards %

And much more, but these stats are key for the market we will be betting on with this
betting strategy. We are looking for a referee that consistently brandishes cards.
However, we can look further into the amount of cards he gives to both the home and
away team, as one of those will be the focus of our bet. We go into this with no
preference over home or away, and we will see how we can find the teams worth
betting on in the next section.

Finding Fixtures and Teams

There are many ways to find fixtures and teams worth betting on through FootyStats. I
believe the dedicated Card Stats page to be a great starting point. It allows you to see
the teams with the highest card averages throughout the world, with the date of their
next fixture also available. Further down the page, you will see the leagues with the
most cards on average. Clicking on the league name will take you directly to the card
stats page for that specific league, where you can see which teams are the worst
o enders in that division, along with their upcoming fixtures.

Another powerful tool is the Match Search. You can use this to filter for the games with a
high potential for cards. Using this tool has lead me to this fixture taking place in
Germany:

Osnabruk vs Nurnberg

Hereʼs the stats that really stand out for me:

5.00 Total Cards / Match (Combined AVG)

3.33 Cards / Match for Nurnberg
100% of Osnabrück Games, +3.5 Cards

When youʼre doing your research, I would highly suggest looking at the following stats. I
have put in the brackets the values I would usually look out for, but try and be open
minded and know that fluctuation is fine:

AVG Cards Per Game (4+)

+0.5 Team Cards (85%+)
+1.5 Team Cards (65%+)

I believe if these stats are met (for either side) it will prove as a good foundation before
you move onto looking into the referee data, if available. If the team card stats are much
higher than the general average, then the focus can be more on that rather than the
referee, as that indicates to me that this team has a certain style of play that will get
them carded consistently, regardless of whoʼs o iciating the fixture.

As for the odds, we will be looking for the aforementioned markets and I would expect
the odds to be between 1.80-2.20, depending on the bookmaker and the stats that you
have found with your team.

Finding / Placing The Bet

Using the fixture above as an example, I will now shop around the bookmakers I
mentioned previously to find the best markets and odds. Usually when betting on
standard markets, you will not need to do this. However, the markets o ered for cards
varies so much per bookmaker.

Remember, we are looking to bet on the amount of cards picked up by the away side, as
they stats tell us that they have consistently been awarded 3.33 cards per game so far
this season.

I have found the following markets available:

Most Booking Points (Nurnberg at 1.80)

Team Cards (Nurnberg +2.5 at 2.25)

The former comes from WilliamHill and the Team Cards market comes from Bet365. I
personally think the market from WilliamHill o ers more value in that thereʼs less risk
involved. For the “Most Booking Points” bet, we just need Osnabruck to have a worse
game than the home side, in terms of discipline. Given the stats, this looks very likely.

Sometimes Bet365 will o er +1.5 Team Cards, but on this occasion they are minimising
their own risk by only o ering +2.5 Team Cards. Itʼs important to also note that these
bets will be placed pre-match, as these markets will usually not be available once the
game starts.

Bet Placed: Nurnberg Most Booking Points at 1.85

Tip: Try not to stay glued to bookmakers in-play screen, as youʼll only be tempted to bet
on something that hasnʼt passed your filter. You can set reminders on your phone, or
force yourself to place bets on desktop only. You might think this is overkill, but I firmly
believe that the amount of e ort and preparation you put in will have a direct e ect on
the output you get out. If you fail to prepare, then prepare to fail. The harsh reality of
betting.

Summary

This betting strategy has aimed to teach you how to bet more sensibly on card markets
and how to sni out value specifically when it comes to the number of cards a team will
receive per game. Stay disciplined and if the fixtures are not there that day, simply wait.
More football is always on the way and itʼs important not to force value if and when it
doesnʼt present itself. Ahead of all the betting strategies that we have posted here, this
lesson is probably the profitable of them all. Discipline.

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