Scribd
Upload
10 views6 pages

Complement of Time Series

Uploaded by

tongjohn9
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
10 views6 pages

Complement of Time Series

Uploaded by

tongjohn9
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 6

90_introduction

May 6, 2024

0.1 What is Time Series


Any data recorded with some fixed interval of time is called as time series data. This fixed interval
can be hourly, daily, monthly or yearly. e.g. hourly temp reading, daily changing fuel prices,
monthly electricity bill, annul company profit report etc. In time series data, time will always be
independent variable and there can be one or many dependent variable.
Sales forecasting time series with shampoo sales for every month will look like this,

In above example since there is only one variable dependent on time so its called as univariate time
series. If there are multiple dependent variables, then its called as multivariate time series.

1
Objective of time series analysis is to understand how change in time affect the dependent variables
and accordingly predict values for future time intervals.

0.2 Time Series Characteristics


Mean, standard deviation and seasonality defines different characteristics of the time series.

Important characteristics of the time series are as below

0.2.1 Trend
Trend represent the change in dependent variables with respect to time from start to end. In case
of increasing trend dependent variable will increase with time and vice versa. It’s not necessary to
have definite trend in time series, we can have a single time series with increasing and decreasing
trend. In short trend represent the varying mean of time series data.

2
0.2.2 Seasonality
If observations repeats after fixed time interval then they are referred as seasonal observations.
These seasonal changes in data can occur because of natural events or man-made events. For
example every year warm cloths sales increases just before winter season. So seasonality represent
the data variations at fixed intervals.

3
0.2.3 Irregularities
This is also called as noise. Strange dips and jump in the data are called as irregularities. These
fluctuations are caused by uncontrollable events like earthquakes, wars, flood, pandemic etc. For
example because of COVID-19 pandemic there is huge demand for hand sanitizers and masks.

4
0.2.4 Cyclicity
Cyclicity occurs when observations in the series repeats in random pattern. Note that if there is
any fixed pattern then it becomes seasonality, in case of cyclicity observations may repeat after a
week, months or may be after a year. These kinds of patterns are much harder to predict.

Time series data which has above characteristics is called as ‘Non-Stationary Data’. For any analysis
on time series data we must convert it to ‘Stationary Data’
The general guideline is to estimate the trend and seasonality in the time series, and then make
the time series stationary for data modeling. In data modeling step statistical techniques are used
for time series analysis and forecasting. Once we have the predictions, in the final step forecasted
values converted into the original scale by applying trend and seasonality constraints back.

0.3 Do you seriously want to learn Python and Data Analysis with Python?
If you’re serious about learning Python for Data Analysis, I highly encourage you to enroll in
my Complete Python and Data Analysis Courses. Don’t waste your time following disconnected,
outdated tutorials.
My Complete Python Course has everything you need in one place.
• Over 10 hours of HD video
• Unlimited access - watch it as many times as you want
• Self-paced learning - take your time if you prefer
• Watch it online or download and watch it offline
• One-on-one training with me 2-4 times a week
Sincerely,
Juma Shafara

5
Data Scientist, Instructor
DATAIDEA
+256-771754118 / +256-701520768
[email protected]
www.dataidea.org
UMF House, Sir Apollo Kagwa Rd

You might also like