INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CL1
• Importance of IR for
• Prelims perspective:[5-7 que]
• International organisations:
• Their member countries
• Treaties
• Bilateral, regional, and Plurilateral Groupings and agreements, for
example, RCEP, Quad, and AUKUS.
• International Mapping
•
• Mains Perspective:[2-4que]
• Analytical and factual
•
•
• Syllabus:------
• India and its neighbours
• Policies and politics of developed and developing countries and their effect on India.
• Bilateral, Regional, and multilateral Groupings agreements and Treaties inclusive of
India or without India, their impact on India.
• Indian Diaspora and international organizations, their structure, and mandate.
•
• Lecture Introduction:
• Terms and Conditions
• Determinants of India's Foreign Policy
• Evolution of India's FP
• Relevance of Non-Alignment and NAM
• Indian and its neighbourhood
• India and China
• India and USA
• India and Russia
• India and Japan yein sare topics krne IR ma , ar nyu parts
• India and Europe
• India and Africa ma hai,
• India and Latin America and the Caribbean
• India and UN
• India Nuclear Doctrine
• Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
• Nuclear Weapon Prohibition Treaty
• India and Multilateral Export Control Regime
• Sources:
• Class notes
• Vision Current Affairs Magazine
• Newspaper editorials

1]Basic Terms and Concepts of IR(06:08 PM)

• Schools and thoughts of IR:----
• [i] Realist School of thought:
• It describes International Relations as they are.

•
• The international scenario is Anarchy in nature as there is no supra national Government
or Global Government.
•
• [ii]Idealist School of Thought:
• It represents idealism.
• It describes the IR as it should be rather than as it is.
• It is Utopian.
• According to this School of Thought, international politics should be guided by Moral
principles and international Cooperation.
• Born out of laws, institutions, and moral conventions.
•
• [iii]Liberal School of Thought:
• One sub-school under this school of thought suggested the establishment of International
Organisations.
• Another School suggested free trade between countries.
• They encouraged free trade because:
• It results in the interlinking of economies such that the cost of war increases and therefore
nation-states do not indulge in warring practices.
• Another Sub School suggested to promoted people to people ties.
• The purpose here is to reduce the scope of misunderstanding.
•
• What are the various suggestion for peace in international politics?
• A]. Balance of power----
• That is Maintain power Equilibrium[koi bhi jada powerful nation aapni marji na kre].
• When three or more countries are important powers in the world.
• They were ensured that no one nation is allowed to gain the preponderance of power.
• If a nation-state attempts to gain such power, other countries will punish it and bring it
back within the system.
• An Example of the practice of BOP is the Concert of Europe.
•
•
• B] Through the establishment of International Organisation: eg who, un etc
• . By encouraging Free trade
• . By the pursuit of people-to-people ties.
C] Diplomacy- a person in foreign country representing his country or on his country behalf is
Called diplomat , and diplomacy Is art of negotiations and
representation of states or country at international level to other states.

• Track I: [of diplomacy [track means type]

• Government to Government ties.
• For example, Shangri La Dialogue.
• It is organized by the international institute of strategic studies and it is attended
by defense ministers and military chiefs of Asia-Pacific Countries.
• Track II:
• Between non-government officials, NGOs, MNCs, Think tanks, academicians, and retired
bureaucrats.
• For example, Nimrana Dialogue
• Track III:
• People-to-people ties
• Track 1.5:
• Government and non-government officials will interact with their counterparts.
• For example, Raisina Dialogue
• It is organized by the Ministry of External Affairs and Observer Research Foundation.
• ORF is a think tank of India in which both the government and non-government officials
participate.
• Public Diplomacy:
• The government of one country engages in diplomacy or dialogue with the common
people of another country to favourably influence the public opinion in that country.
• In 2006 a separate division of Public diplomacy was established under MEA.

Multi-Track Diplomacy(07:29 PM)

• Simultaneously multiple tracks of Diplomacy are being pursued or being active.
• Nation refers to a community that has a sense of belongingness.
• It is a sentimental concept.
• The nation-state is a political concept.
• State Nation
• Civilization state:
• The idea is that the country does not merely represent a historical territory or
ethnolinguistic group.
• Rather it represents a civilization
• India is one of the very few civilisational states in the world.

Power: Concept of Politics(07:46 PM)

• Types of power:
•
• [i]Hard power:
• It comprises economic and military power.
• It is coercive in nature.
• Brute power
• [ii]Soft power:
• Power of attraction.
• Culture, philosophy, Cuisine, dance and music, art and architecture.
• Globalisation was powered through the ICT revolution.
• It is intangible in nature
•
• [iii]Smart power:
• It is an optimal combination of hard and soft power

World order:
• Three types:
• 1]Unipolar
• 2]Bipolar and
3]Multi-Polar
Cl2
• Three types:
• Overview of power distribution in the world
• 1]Unipolar:
• Power is concentrated in a single superpower.
• Bandwagon behind the superpower
• The world has a brief moment of unipolarity after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
• It extended for around 10 years and USA's decline as the world hegemon started with
9/11.
•
• 2]Bipolar:
• There are two superpowers and these superpowers will be balancing one another.
• It was experienced during the cold war.
• 3]Multipolar:
• Three or more powerful countries.
• The world is in a state of flux and we are moving towards multipolarity.
•
• Billiard ball model:
• It is a model which represents.
• There is a single gateway of interaction between or among nation-states.
• Government to government is the only mode of interaction between countries.
• It is descriptive of interactions between nation-states prior to the present era of
globalization(powered by ICT revolution and based in neo-liberal policies).
• Cob Web Model:
• Multiple gateways of interaction between/among nation-states.
• For example, Government to Government, Government to MNCs, etc.
• Nations states:
• Countries
• Non-state actors:
• All actors other than the government are non-state actors.
• For example, MNCs, Civil society, NGOs, terrorists, etc.
 #Foreign Policy and Neo-Liberalism(06:12 PM)
• It is the policy adopted by a state to achieve national interest.
• Foreign Policy is shaped by not one but a set of factors rather it is shaped by multiple
factors referred to as Determinants of Foreign Policy:
• Geography
• Military
• Culture
• Economic power
[1]Geographical factor(06:17 PM)
• Resources:
• Energy dependence on West Asia
• Location:
• Sea lines of Communication
• Size in terms of area and population.
• India's strategic location at the center of the Asian arc extending from Aden to Tokyo
makes it a gateway to South East Asia, and Central, and West Asia.
• It was because of this that USA and USSR initially competed to bring India within their
sphere of influence during the cold war.
• India's location at the head of the Indian Ocean along with other determinants makes India
a net security provider in the region.
• India's vast coastline necessitates strong diplomacy with the rim countries.
• It is in this context, India has propounded the vision of SAGAR- Security and Growth for
All in the Region and has undertaken initiatives such as IORA(Indian Ocean Rim
Association) and IONS(Indian Ocean Naval Symposium) in the Indian Ocean region.
• India shares disputed land borders with Pakistan, China, and Myanmar which requires the
adoption of a strategic approach in its continental policy.
• Thus, unlike the UK and the US, India has to focus on the continental as well as the
maritime domain in its foreign Policy Formulation.
• India being an energy import-dependent country needs to prioritize its relations with West
Asia and is seeking active cooperation with the Lithium Triangle(Bolivia, Chile, and
Argentina).
• India's look East and Look West policies are determined by Geography and also expressed
in geographical terms.
• India's size and population make it an important contender for UNSC's permanent
membership.
• Distance is the prime inhibiting factor in the development of close relations between India
and Latin America.
• [2]Cultural Determinant(06:39 PM):
• India would be a thumping superpower in terms of soft power.
• There are very few civilisational states and India is one of them.
• Thus, India's worldview cannot be separated from its culture and tradition.
• In fact India's first Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru who was the prime articulator of
India's foreign policy commented that he is not inventing any new foreign policy for India.
• Rather, merely rediscovering it from its past.
• India's Commitment to international peace as is evident in Article 51 of the Indian
Constitution respects international law.
• As evident in Article 51 is the reflection of Indian civilisational values of tolerance,
nonviolence, VAsudhaiva Kutumbkam(World as a family), and Sarve Bhavantu
sukhinah.
• While other countries use hard power to gain influence in the international sphere.
• India has sought to leverage its cultural relations be it with South East Asia, Nepal, or even
Afghanistan to develop mutually beneficial partnerships.
• The Present Government is building Ramayana and the Buddhist circuit with neighboring
countries to augment the bilateral ties.
• India's culture forms the basis of India's soft power.
• Be it Yoga, Ayurveda, Various schools of Indian philosophy, or India's mythology, They
strengthen India's power of attraction.
• Though Indian culture has been pre-dominantly passive, it does have a realist element
reflected in Kautilya's Mandala Siddhant.
• In fact, While the passive tradition dominates the foreign policy approach of the congress
party, the realist tradition is emphasized in the foreign policies of the BJP.
• Civilisational states like India are not satisfied by the pursuit of their foreign policy to
achieve their mere national interests.
• They seek to shape the world order by their foreign policies which are in turn shaped by
their cultural values.
• The creation of NAM which effectively carved a non-violent third pole in the Bipolar world
order is an example of the same.

[3]Economic Determinant(07:24 PM)

• FP is a critical element of an overall strategy to serve national goals including socio-
economic development and defense preparedness.
• Thus, Economic goals are an important determinant of India's foreign policy.
• Upon economic liberalization the then-Indian Government had to consequently reform
India's foreign policy as well.
• Under, economic liberalisation, India opened up its market to foreign trade which in fact
was to develop as one of the primary contributors to India's GDP.
• To encourage foreign trade, India adopted a concentric circle approach to India's
foreign policy.
• The then PV Narsimha Rao Government put forth three concentric circles to define India's
foreign policy priorities.
• In fact, look East Policy was launched in the context of economic liberalization to
encourage foreign trade with the Asian tigers.
• Economic liberalisation has raised the influence of businessmen and industrialists in
foreign affairs.
• Business delegations often accompany ministers' visits abroad, Worl Economic Forum is
one such example of the growth of the importance of the economic factor in foreign affairs
post-adoption of neo-liberal policies around the world.
• In fact in general, to promote bilateral relations or regional integration, the first step is
trade liberalisation.
• Thus in the present times, the importance of economic factors is underlined by the fact
that foreign policies seek to achieve the country's economic objectives such as promotion
of trade, bringing in the needed civilian and defense technologies, promoting inward and
outward investments, and ensuring energy security.
•
• [4]Military Factor(07:50 PM):
• Despite India's attempts to befriend the USA, the then single superpower post-
Soviet Union disintegration, the two democracies could finally negotiate and
understand one another.
• Once India tested nuclear weapons to become a de facto nuclear weapon state in 1998.
• By the year 2000, India and US entered into a partnership agreement.
• Historical Factor:
• Being once a colonized country, India has extended full support to freedom struggle
movements in Africa and Asia.
• India's support for the anti-apartheid movement against systemic racial discrimination in
South Africa is also a reflection of its colonial legacy.
• The history of partition continues to negatively impact India-Pakistan relations.
• World order:
• When the world order was bipolar, India carved the third pole of NAM.
• Once unipolarity defined the world order India chose to befriend the USA.
• Presently when the world order is in a state of flux and multi-polarity is upon the world.
• India chooses to pursue an issue-based coalition for functional cooperation.
• India is part of the RIC trilateral and a member of BRICS and SCO on one hand and on the
other is cooperating with the USA and the West through JAI trilateral and through the
QUAD platform.
Cl3 [EVOLUTION MTLB SHURU TA LEKA IBBI TAK[HISTORY] KI INDIAN FP. KA ITIHAS]

• Phase I(05:21 PM):

• The phase of High idealism(1947-62) or optimistic non-alignment.
• External environment:
• Bipolar world: Camps led by USA and USSR
• Features of Foreign Policy in this phase:
• 1. India adopted the policy of non-alignment.
• To resist constrainment of its choices and dilution of its sovereignty as it builds its
economy and consolidated its integrity.
• 2. As one of the first decolonized countries, India supported the independence of countries
in Asia and Africa.
• 3. India became a co-founder of NAM and laid emphasis on third-world solidarity.
• 4. India played a critical role in multilateral institutions.
• India was a significant troop contributor in UN Peacekeeping operations.
• For example, in Belgium, Congo.
• India was also involved in the peaceful resolution of international conflicts and regional
conflicts such as in Vietnam, Korea, Hungary, etc.
• India was the champion of disarmament.
• It pioneered the Partial Test Ban Treaty.
• The PTBT bans nuclear weapon tests in the Atmosphere, in space, and underwater.
• 1962 war greatly damaged the then-global standing of India and brought an end to this
phase of the FP.

Phase II(05:39 PM)

• The decade of realism and recovery(1962-71):
• Difficult years for India are also referred to as Fractured years.
• India faced defeat by China and India underwent three wars.
• Three consecutive years of drought.
• India used to get food aid from the USA under Public Law-480.
• However, India was humiliated with respect to food aid.
• This pushed India to undertake Agriculture Revolution.
• The following years represent the fracture years of Indian polity while the Indian economy
faced several challenges.
• However, India came out of this anxious period without any loss.
• India made pragmatic FP choices on security and political challenges.
• It overcame the domestic political turbulence and economic distress to realize the
importance of self-help and emerged as an undisputed leader of the sub-continent.

Phase III(05:49 PM)

• External Environment:
• There was Sino- US rapprochement.
• The Soviet Union and China went to war over a border dispute in Russia's far East.
• 2. US-China-Pak axis.
• Features of India’s Foreign Policy during this phase:
• Thus, in response to the above-mentioned challenge, India signed Peace, Friendship, and
Cooperative Treaty with the USSR in 1971.
• Developments:
• 1971 war with Pakistan which resulted in the dismemberment and creation of
independent Bangladesh.
• With it, India emerged as the undisputed leader of the region.
• India undertook the First Nuclear Weapon Test in 1974.
• This test was code-named smiling Buddha.
• The second Nuclear Test was operation Shakti.
• It was also referred to as a Peaceful Nuclear explosion or Subterranean Nuclear
Explosion Project.
• Reason in the context of successful nuclear Weapon Test by China.
• Following it India faced Widespread Global diplomatic disapprobation and significant
economic and technological sanctions.
• Consequently, India's policymakers chose not to carry out any further nuclear tests.
• India was trapped in the so-called Hindu Rate of Growth(3-5% of annual GDP growth
rate).
• Reasons:
• State-led industrialisation
• Export pessimism
• Because of this, despite India's regional ascendence, India remained a marginal player in
global affairs throughout these decades.

Phase IV(06:19 PM)

• Characterised by the USA's unipolarity(1991-2000).
• External Environment:
• With the disintegration of the USSR and the US becoming the single superpower.
• This phase is in the period of the brief moment of the USA's unipolarity.
• Developments in this phase:
• Balance of Payment crisis:
• India Consequently adopted a new economic policy and under it LPG reforms.
• Unprecedented fiscal crisis.
• This crisis was characterized by the Gulf War.
• Following the economic reforms, the necessity to chart a new course of FP was felt:
• Normalize its relation by Israel-establish ambassadorial relations with Israel.
• Launched Look East Policy.
• In the Context of the USA becoming the Global hegemon, India's sought to befriend the
USA.
• India undertook the second Nuclear test in 1998.
• Through this test, India crossed the Nuclear Rubicon.
• Consequently, India became a defacto Nuclear Weapon state.
• Estranged democracies of India and the US transformed into engaged democracies.
• By the end of this phase, India's credentials as both an economic and military power are
strengthened.
• Post the development of Nuclear weapons, India becomes one of the very few countries in
the world to possess the ultimate military power in terms of Nuclear weapons.
• Also, Post economic reforms, by the latter half of the 1990s, the Indian economy started
registering descent growth could break out from the Hindu rate of growth, and its
attractiveness in terms of size and scale of its markets became evident.
• Thus, the sanctions that were imposed post-operation Shakti were more or less diluted
within two years.
• India's relations with the West improved including that with Japan.
• By the end of this phase, India came to be recognised as one of the emerging economies
and potentially global power.

Phase V(07:00 PM)

• India becomes a balancing power(2001-2014):
• External Environment:
• Beginning of the decline of US hegemony.
• The Global environment consequently became more competitive with the resurgence of
Russia, the rise of China, and the economic resurgence of other middle economies/powers
such as Japan, Turkey, etc.
•
• Policies of India:
• India now discovered the benefits of working with different powers on different issues.
• With India US nuclear deal, India's relations with the West grew.
• At the same time, India cooperated with China on issues of Climate change and trade.
• India further strengthen its ties with Russia and BRICS developed into a major forum to
reform global political and economic institutions of governance.
• Thus, India became an important global power during this phase.

Phase VI( 07:10 PM)

• This period is characterized by fast, energetic diplomacy by India and China adopting
a muscular or an assertive FP(2014 onwards)
• External Environment:
• China is adopting muscular and assertive FP, and the terms of engagement that it
offers to the world have progressively hardened.
• On the other hand, the USA and Europe are increasingly turning inwards.
• USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan and adoption of America's first policy under Trump are
examples of growing tepidity in the USA's foreign policy(inability to refinalise the
Iranian nuclear deal).
• Japan is an important power that has shed its past inhibitions of militarily participating in
the region of Indo-Pacific but is still not important enough to make a major difference in
balancing China.
• The full impact of the 2008 financial crisis and consequent global economic
rebalancing in terms of the decline of the West and the rise of the East is becoming more
evident.
• The world is witnessing wider dispersal of power and multi-polarity is now seriously upon
us.
• Faced with these developments, India has chosen the following policies to engage
in global politics:
• 1. It has adopted more energetic diplomacy(fast, agile diplomacy).
• Participating in issue-based coalition and functional cooperation.
• For Example, the BBIN initiative, Supply chain initiative of India, Japan, and Australia.
• There is growing awareness of India's own capabilities.
• Under it, India has emerged as the major economy of the world, and India's technological
prowess is quite evident.
• Also significantly, India has demonstrated global responsibilities in terms of
commitments vis-vis climate change.
• Greater developmental investment in third-world countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka,
Afghanistan, etc.
• Also India has prioritised 'Sabka sath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas'.

Relevance of Policy of Non-Alignment (07:32 PM)

• Question: Critically examine the relevance of the policy of non- Alignment.
• Context of the emergence of the policy of non- Alignment.
• Context:
• Bloc politics:
• The USA-led bloc with defense pact NAto and USSR's led bloc pact WARSAW pact.
• Having been a colonial subservient country for more than 200 years, India dearly
valued sovereignty and did not want to compromise with it.
• It sought to escape the entrapment of bloc politics and make foreign policy decisions
based on the merit of the issue rather than being coerced into any particular stand.
• Was India's policy of non-alignment India's idealism?
• Since it traces its roots in Indian civilisational values as well as the values of India's
freedom struggle, it seems India's idealism.
• IT emphasized promoting peace and international cooperation rather than
building military alliances to ensure world peace.
• (Nehru had compared peace through defense pacts to tense state of peace).
• Peace or avoiding wars as long as it was possible was essential to focus on India's
economic development.
• Also, India needed resources in the form of developmental assistance and necessary trade
to undertake economic development.
• The policy of non-alignment allowed India to have good relations with countries on either
side of Bloc politics.
• Since India was ideologically closer to the West while being in Geographical proximity to
the communist bloc.
• It chose the policy of non-alignment.
• The plural polity of India necessitated the adoption of non-alignment.
• Therefore the adoption of the policy of non-alignment was rooted in strong pragmatic
reasoning.
•
• The policy of Non-alignment- What it is not?
• India's policy of non-alignment has been confused with isolationism or neutrality.

• Nonalignment is a positive concept.

• It stands for:
• Active role in world affairs(unlike isolationism)
• Friendship and cooperation with all countries.
• It is not directed against any ideology but seeks to promote peace and friendship in the
world irrespective of ideological differences.
• India's policy of non-alignment was criticized as:
• a. India's opportunism and India's immorality.
• b.India's policy was criticized for trying to take advantage of both the blocs without making
a commitment to either.
• Stalin said those not with USSR are against them.
• However, the Policy of nonalignment is an attempt to assert the independence of FP,
especially by a newly independent country.
• CL4
Continuation of the previous topic what Non-alignment is not(05:10 PM)
• It was not a policy equidistant.
• Relevance of the Policy of non-alignment:
• 1. 1947-60s, the policy of non-alignment was practiced in the ideal sense.
• India was truly non-aligned to either of the Blocs.
• 2. 1970-80s, India signed Treaty with USSR in 1971, and consequently pro-Soviet
tilt developed in India's foreign policy.
• 3. the 1990s onwards, with the disintegration of USSR, the end of bloc politics, and the
rise of the single superpower, the policy of non-alignment lost its relevance.
• the 1990s decade represented the brief moment of the USA's unipolarity and
consequently, the government of India had no choice but trying to befriend the USA as
with strict unipolarity, countries cannot balance the super power and have
to bandwagon with it.
• With the change in the international order, the congress party under PV Narsimha Rao's
government realized the necessity to rethink India's Foreign Policy strategy.
• Also, the BJP party has never been very keen on the idea of non-alignment.
• In fact, It was only the left parties in India that continued their insistence on a policy of
non-alignment especially post the LPG reforms. and when India was to finalise a civil
Nuclear Deal with the USA.
• Non-alignment, for a few years now, has not been projected as the grand framework of
India's Foreign Policy.
• India's current foreign minister commented that non-alignment was the concept of
relevance in a "specific era and in a particular context".
• Thus, though the Policy of non-alignment has been rejected to be the defining principle
of India's FP, its core idea of independence of action remains a factor of continuity in
India's FP.
• Successive Formulations have been coined as a better description of India's FP but have
been rejected.
• a. Strategic Autonomy:
• Because of its anti-American tilt, it has been rejected.
• b. Multiple Alignments:
• Indian civil society tried to redefine the policy of non-alignment as being pursued through
multiple alignments in their document NAM 2.0.
• But since it may convey an impression of opportunism, it has been rejected.
• c. Seeking issue-based partnerships/coalitions:
• Failed to gain traction.
• d. advancing prosperity and influence:
• It describes the aspiration that our international partnerships seek to further.
• It is how the present NDA government has chosen to describe India's FP.
Relevance of NAM(06:06 PM)
• Context:
• Bipolar world order and
• Afro-Asian resurgence:
• Newly independent countries want to assert their independence in foreign affairs.
• NAM evolved out of the concerted efforts of individual non-aligned states to build a
common front against superpower dominance and neo-imperialism.
• There were five founding member countries:
• India led by Nehru,
• Egypt- Gamal Abdel Nassir
• Yugoslavia- Joseph Tito
• Indonesia- Sukarno
• Ghana- Nkwame Nkrumah
• Evolution of NAM:
• 1947- Asian relations conference.
• 1955- Afro Asian Relations conference which took place in Bandung in Indonesia.
• Afro-Asian Relations Conference
• Bandung conference was called by India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Burma and Srilanka
(Pakistan was not a part of NAM at that time. Pakistan became a member in the 6th NAM
summit)
• The first NAM Summit Conference took place in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in September 1961.
• Pakistan previously was a member of SEATO AND CENTO.
• Pakistan formally left SEATO in 1973
• Today, NAM comprises 120 member countries and 17 countries and 10 international
organizations as its observers.
Features of NAM(06:22 PM)
• It does not have a formal Constitution or a permanent secretariat.
• It has a non-hierarchical structure.
• The Presidency is rotational among the member countries and at every new summit, a new
president is elected which continues until the next summit.
• Decisions are made on general consensus which requires substantial agreement but
not unanimity.
• Conditions for membership of NAM:
• The country should not be a member of the multi-lateral military alliance, bilateral
military agreement with great power, or a member of the regional defense pact.
• A country should not concede its military bases to a foreign country, especially in the
context of great power rivalry.
• Should follow an independent FP.
• Should support movements of national independence.

•
• Some member countries including the founding member Egypt were of the view that with
the end of bipolarity, NAM should be dissolved and it should cease to exist.
• However, the Majority of the member countries decided to continue with it.
• Even India's then PM was of the opinion that the purpose of NAM was not mere opposition
to bloc politics.
• It was a coincidence that NAM was founded when the world was bipolar.
• According to him(PV Narasimha Rao) that the purpose of NAM was:
• a. Build a new world order based on sovereign equality.
• b. Strengthen international law and world peace.
• c. Promote South-South cooperation.
• d. Promote equitable and sustainable development.
• Since these goals continued to be of relevance post the cold war, so did NAM.
• However, over a decade, it was realized that NAM cannot continue with the business as
usual approach.
• So, in the Havana summit(2006), they agreed to reorient and redefine the goals of NAM.
• Thus, a new agenda was adopted:
• a. To oppose unilateralism, To promote multilateralism
• b. Sovereign equality
• c. Promote South-South and North-South cooperation etc

Present status of NAM(07:16 PM)

• It is facing a crisis of relevance despite the reorientation of the goal 2006 Havana
summit because:
• 1. End of bloc politics
• 2. Lack of substantial achievements of NAM except for its agenda of decolonisation and
anti-apartheid movement and support for the movement against systemic racial
discrimination in South Africa.
• There has been no important achievement of NAM.
• 3. No voice in the current geopolitical developments.
• Be it the Syrian crisis, Yemen war, or Venezuelan crisis, NAM did not take any stand in
support of even its own member countries.
• The members themselves failed to be truly non-aligned.
• They either adopted pro-Soviet/ Russia or pro-USA stand and failed to offer joint
opposition to their hegemonic attempts.
• 4. Most of the member countries were tilted towards USSR and failed to sustain the
democratic form of government.
• Thus, NAM became subject to the USA's criticism that a club of dictators demanded
democracy in international politics; and as Team B of the USSR.
•
• 5. Post-economic liberalisation and adoption of neo-liberalism-based
globalization, most of the NAM countries were co-opted into the West-led world order.
• Thus, they failed to resist USA's unilateralism or strive for new international economic
order which will be just for the developing countries.
• 6. Lack of institutionalization:
• Though a matter of choice to resist bureaucratisation of the organisation and to maintain
its agility to adapt itself to the changing demands of the world order, the lack of a
secretariat has emerged as its weakness.
• To work on the adopted agenda in the summit as well as during the inter-summit period,
the lack of a secretariat has caused serious concerns for NAM.
• 7. Lack of leadership:
• In the context of the reluctance of the founding member countries to lead the organisation,
the leadership was passed on to countries like Iran and Cuba.
• They have further radicalised the organisation.
• Also in wake of the current sanctions against Iran, it is in no position to lead the
organisation.
• 8. Lack of resources:
• The member countries are developing countries that lack a surplus to spare for NAM.

HAs NAM lost relevance to India? (07:49 PM)

• PM MODI chose not to attend two consecutive summits of NAM.
• While India was represented by its vice president.
• Also, the current Foreign minister questioned the relevance of the concept of the Non-
alignment in the present times.
• Thus, the present administration makes no illusion with respect to its loss of interest in
NAM.
• However, NAM is relevant to India.
• Reasons:
• a. It is the biggest grouping of developing countries outsides of UNGA.
• Though India is now in the club of the neo-elite countries like BRICS, G20, etc, it continues
to be a developing country.
• b. Geopolitical importance:
• India has aimed of becoming a permanent member of the UNSC which can be realised only
through the support of the NAM countries.
• They make one of the largest voting groups in the UN.
• A platform for natural leadership of India.
• Through it, India can assert itself as the leader of the third world once again.
• c. It bestows India with soft power.

Relevance of India to NAM(07:58 PM)

• It is a matter of fact that both India and NAM need one another:
• a. India can provide leadership and resources to NAM:
• Compared to the 1960s or later, India is in a better position to meaningfully participate in
NAM.
• b. India can give a boost to South-South cooperation as well as North-South
cooperation.
• It is one of the few countries in the world to have good relations with both North and
South.
• Conclusion:
• NAM is an important organisation that advocates for international cooperation,
multilateralism, and national self-determination.
• It currently faces a crisis of leadership and resource which if it is optimally provided, it can
contribute to global stability, rule of law in the current international politics which is in a
state of flux.
Cl5
2]India's neighbourhood policy(05:13 PM)
• Rationale:
• 1. To avoid regional conflicts and focus the company's resources on socio-economic
development.
• 2. To promote trade relations at the regional level.
• 3. Regions tend to face common challenges for instance South Asia faces challenges of
poverty, malnourishment, and non-conventional security threats such as human
trafficking and drug trafficking, and money laundering.
• Such challenges can be overcome through regional cooperation.
• India's established leadership in South Asia will determine its stronger claim on the global
seats of high power such as the UNSC, NSG, etc.
• 4. To check Chinese growing influence in the region.
• Statements:
• By former PM, Dr. Manmohan Singh, "the real test of the foreign policy of any nation is the
handling of its neighborhood."
• By PM Modi, " a nation's destiny is linked to its neighborhood."

Neighborhood policies of Government of India(05:26 PM)

• Gujral Doctrine:
• It is a set of five principles to guide the conduct of India's relations with its immediate
neighourhood.
• It encompasses the five Panchsheel Principles along with the Principle of Non-
reciprocity.
• It implies that India will do what it can for the prosperity of its neighboring countries in
good faith and trust while not seeking reciprocity.
• India to establish such relations insist on a single condition that no South Asian country
shall allow its territory to be used against the interest of any other country in the region.
• Panchsheel Principles:
• Sovereignty
• Mutual non-aggression
• Domestic non-interference
• Equality and Mutual Benefit
• Peaceful coexistence

New Neighbourhood Policy of 2005(05:40 PM)

• South Asia though divided by political boundaries forms a singular geographical unit and
has a shared cultural legacy.
• We can neither erase nor redraw the political boundaries but can work to make them
progressively irrelevant.
• This can be ensured through better connectivity, development of the border areas, and
allowing free movement of goods, services, people, and information.
• The present policy of the Government of India(05:52 PM):
• Neighbourhood first Policy:
• 1. Willingness to give political and diplomatic priority to immediate neighbors and
the Indian Ocean Island states.
• 2. Providing them with the necessary support in the form of funds and equipment, and
training for human resource development.
• 3. Greater connectivity and integration to improve the free flow of goods, capital,
people, and information.
• 4. To promote a model of India-led regionalism with which are neighbors are
comfortable.

India-Pakistan Relations(08:01 PM)

• Timeline of events:
• Q. Does India have a Pakistan Policy? Examine.
• Way forward
• Issues:
• Kashmir issue, Gilgit Baltistan issue, Sir Creek issue, and Indus water treaty
• From October 1947 to January 1948, the war took place.
• The war came to an end with the Karachi agreement.
• The tribes from North-West Frontier Pakistan invaded Kashmir.
• In, 1960, Indus Water Treaty was signed between the two countries and this was
mediated by the World Bank.
• 1965:
• Second war:
• This war came to an end through Tashkent Treaty which was signed in 1966.
• 1971:
• The third India-Pakistan War:
• This resulted in the dismemberment of Pakistan which is the creation of Bangladesh.
• Mass surrender by the Pakistan military.
• This came to an end through the Shimla agreement in 1972.
• Shimla Agreement:
• The ceasefire line was renamed LoC.
• Committed both sides to work through their outstanding issues bilaterally and through the
mechanisms of the working group.
• 1971:
• This war is a watershed In India-Pakistan relations.
• Following its defeat in three consecutive wars with India, Pakistan adopted:
• 1. Proxy warfare by sponsoring cross-border terrorism- Pakistan realized it cannot win
overt wars against India.
• 2. Pakistan decides to pursue a nuclear weapon option to gain strategic parity with India.
• In terms of conventional weapons, India enjoyed a large lead from Pakistan.
• May 1998:
• Both these countries test their Nuclear Weapons and become defacto nuclear weapons
states.
• 1999:
• Vajpayee conducted the bus dimplomacy under pressure from the USA.
• It resulted in the Lahore declaration.
• Lahore declaration:
• Both the countries recognize that they are nuclear weapon states and need to
act responsively.
• Both pledged to intensify their efforts to resolve all issues including the issue of J and
K.
• 1999 misadventure of Kargil.
• It demonstrates Pakistan's Brinksmanship.
• 2001:
• Agra Summit:
• For the first time, Pakistan acknowledged that terrorism is a bilateral issue between the
two countries.
• In October 2001 attack on Srinagar Assembly was followed by the attack on the Indian
Parliament.
• India wanted to go to war with Pakistan through operation Parakrama.
• 2004:
• Once again, During the SAARC summit in Islamabad, India and Pakistan agreed on a 2+6
framework dialogue known as Composite dialogue.
• It represents a functional approach to resolving disputes and ensuring good relations
between the two countries.
• Under this approach 6 issues of low politics such as:
• The Siachen Dispute
• The Sir Creek Dispute
• Tulbul navigation etc were identified.
• Resolving them would generate the momentum necessary to resolve the difficult issues
of Kashmir and terrorism.
• This has been the most successful framework/dialogue under which India and Pakistan
were geared to even resolving their Kashmir issue.
• But at the peak of such Bonhomie, India faced the Mumbai terror attack in 2008.
• May 2014:
• Modi invited all the SAARC Leaders to the swearing-in ceremony including that of
Pakistan.
• There was an attempt to revive the composite dialogue as a comprehensive dialogue.
• Other steps such as:
• Cricket diplomacy(When PM Modi called his Pakistani counterpart following the India-
Pakistan clash in the 2015 world cup)
• In an unusual step, PM Modi paid a surprise visit to PM Nawaz Sharif's granddaughter's
wedding while returning from Afghanistan.
• But this approach could not continue for long in the context of various attacks on India's
military establishments.
• Gurdaspur in July 2015 then the Pathankot attack in Jan 2016 and Uri in Sep 2016.
• In fact, as far as Pathankot is concerned, India took extra steps by inviting Pakistan’s police
to investigate the attack site.
• Thus, India adopted a more realist approach, an approach based on realpolitik-the Doval
Doctrine to deal with Pakistan.
• This doctrine suggested defensive offense as a strategy.
• It means India would work on Pakistan's vulnerabilities.
• India sought international isolation of Pakistan and under this approach decided to use
money, weapons, and even non-state actors, and use of high technology-driven military
systems to exploit Pakistan's vulnerabilities such that it would remain pre-occupied within
its country and not target India.
• Under this doctrine, India highlighted the poor human rights situation in Baluchistan while
threatening to abandon the Indus water treaty.
• This approach, however, failed to yield the desired results.
• The Pulwama attack in February 2019 which killed 20 CRPF jawans has been the largest
terrorist attack on India's security establishment.
• Following it, India's relations with Pakistan hit a new low.
• Following the Uri attack, India launched a surgical strike in Pok while following the
Pulwama, India conducted the Blakot air strike.
• Under it, India entered Pakistan's airspace targetting Jaish-e-Mohammad(JeM) training
facilities in Balakot, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan.
• India termed it as a retaliatory "nonmilitary pre-emptive strike" to discourage its
acceleration into open war between India and Pakistan.
• In August 2019 Indian Government abrogated Article 370 and reorganized the state of J and
K into two Union Territories.
• Consequently, relations between the two countries reached a historic low during
peacetimes.
• India-Pakistan snapped their trading ties while India withdrew the MFN status of
Pakistan post-Pulwama, Pakistan banned bilateral trade by imposing prohibitive
taxes on it.
• They downgraded their missions- recalled their high commissioners and reduced the
mission strength to half.
• There have been no high-level talks at the Prime Minister level since PM Modi's Lahore
Visit in 2015.
• All sporting and cultural exchanges were brought to an end with visas rarely granted
except for the rare exception of the Kartarpur Corridor which was inaugurated in 2019.
•
• The thawing in the relations(07:51 PM):
• Evidences:
• The ceasefire agreement concluded between the two countries in February.
• Indus water talks resumed
• Absence of very adverse Pakistani mentions in speeches on the Indian side.
• Soften language and speeches on the importance of cross-border trade- by former
Pakistani PM Imran Khan and the military general Qamar Bajwa.
• The national Security Policy of Pakistan emphasises developing peaceful relations with
India.
•
• Reason for thawing:
• From India's perspective- the change has been driven by the realist considerations that
surfaced during the Ladakh Border crisis on the LAC in 2020.
• It raised the threat of a collusive military attack by China and Pakistan on India.
• From Pakistan's perspective:
• Since it is grappling with a severe economic crisis threatening its economic survival in the
post-COVID world.
• Its military general has commented that Pakistan has rethought its national security
paradigm from purely military defense to economic security.
• He has said that it is a rational choice to view South Asia in terms of Geoeconomic
integration rather than geostrategic rivalries
• Cl6
Continuation of India-Pakistan Relations(05:15 PM)
• Pakistan has been a financial aid-dependent economy.
• Following USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan, West Asian countries undertaking economic
restructuring, and financial assistance is not as forthcoming from Pakistan while IMF has
extended loans but made them conditional on policy reforms such as higher electricity
tariffs, withdrawal of income tax exemptions freeing the Central Bank from the
government control, etc which made the then Imran Khan Government unpopular.
• On the other hand, while China is willing to extend loans, Islamabad is wary of its debt trap
policies.
• With the new government of Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan, there is speculation s of the
revival of bilateral ties but it is too early to make any such predictions.
• What has aided in the thawing of the relations? (05:21 PM):
• a. Back Channel diplomacy between the NSAs and their appointed interlocutors.
• Such back-channel diplomacy between India and Pakistan has been mediated by the UAE.
• Pakistan has allowed the export of wheat from India to Afghanistan via Pakistan under
the World Food Program since February 2022.
• Does the Government of India have a foreign policy vis a vis Pakistan?
• A coherent, cogent Foreign policy with respect to Pakistan.
• Indian elites and India's forefathers were dismissive of Pakistan, they could not understand
its resilience and predicted that it would not survive as a state for long and would
eventually join India.
• Consequently, in absence of an unambiguous policy, India-Pakistan relations have
followed the vicious cycle of dialogue-disruption-dialogue.
• It is an irony that though almost every PM of India has dealt with the issue of Pakistan
personally, India has been unable to manage its relations with it,
• In the last two decades, three successive Indian PMs have attempted to rebuild relations
with Pakistan.
• These such attempts have been disrupted by attacks on India.
• The reason for the futility of such attempts:
• 1. Pakistan is a deep state.
• Its animosity with India justifies the armies' extraordinary power.
• The Raison d'etre for the Jihadi elements in Pakistan is its conflict with India.
• Thus there is the presence of strong vested elements in Pakistan against peace with India.
• Evaluating the option of animosity with Pakistan.
• Pakistan is a rogue state prone to brinksmanship and is under the influence of radical
elements.
• So, the pursuit of animosity with such a country is inadvisable.
• 2. Stopping the flow of Indus water to Pakistan is neither feasible nor advisable.
• It is not feasible because practically India does not have the technology to stop or reverse
the flow of rivers.
• It is not advisable because India's reputation as a treaty-abiding nation will suffer.
• 3. Withdrawl of the MFN status by India did not create the necessary impact since the
volume of bilateral trade is rather small.
• Internationally, isolating Pakistan is easier said than done.
• Given the strategic location of Pakistan, near Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and the Indian
Ocean it is considered as the pivot state in international politics.
• Thus it can never be successfully isolated in international politics.
• Russian Scholars call Pakistan a zipper state which connects Europe and Asia.
• China, the revisionist power, is a G2 country, it is closer to Pakistan than ever before.
• CPEC is the flagship initiative under China's BRI.
• Russia is warming up to Pakistan and USA despite its withdrawal
from Afghanistan, Pakistan is important for keeping communication channels open with
the Taliban.
• Thus, Pakistan is vital to the strategic calculus of the global powers such that
internationally isolating it has been difficult.
Evaluating the option of peace with Pakistan(06:10 PM)
• Peace with Pakistan is not a choice but a compulsion.
• As aptly commented by former PM, Atal Bihari Bajpayee, "Friends can change but not
neighbors who have to live together".
• However, Pakistan uses the peace initiatives of India as an opportunity to launch attacks.
• Thus, India becomes vulnerable to terror attacks whenever it pursues peace with Pakistan.
• Also, CPEC will alter the logic of geography, It will reduce Pakistan's economic
dependence on India for its own economic growth because of the seamless connectivity
with China and other countries.
• This will reduce its motivation to normalize relations with India.
• Therefore in such a circumstance, the following steps are suggested:
• India and Pakistan should pursue back-channel diplomacy.
• India should improve relations with countries that have leverage with Pakistan like UAE,
Saudi Arabia, etc.
• India should develop international communities' stake in the Indian economy.
• It will be the biggest hedge against terror attacks.
• India should try ad get a Comprehensive Convention on International
Terrorism(CCIT) passed at the UN at the earliest.
• Most importantly at the domestic level, India should maintain the spirit of India.
• Pakistan can win against India only if it is able to destroy the secular composite nature of
India.
• Thus, India needs to guard against radicalisation of its youth and come out with an
adoptable politically imaginative solution to the Kashmir dispute.

Bilateral issues in the relations(06:56 PM)

• Kashmir issue:
• Kashmir is a lingering issue between the two countries over which they have fought three
wars(1948, 1965 and the limited war in 1999).
• Both countries view the Kashmir issue differently.
• For Pakistan, Kashmir is the unfinished business of Partition, whereas for India it is a
settled issue that only means dialogue and discussion.
• India has always maintained that Kashmir is an Indian territory and the instrument of
acession signed by the Maharaja of Kashmir and successive elections within the province
demonstrate that the people of Kashmir wish to be part of India.
• Thus, there exist different perspectives vis-vis Kashmir.
• Why Kashmir has been a lingering issue between the two countries?
• Matter of identity:
• It is a source of identity for both countries.
• Kashmir is a Muslim majority region.
• Its integration with strengthens India's image as a secular country.
• On the other hand, If it were to be integrated with Pakistan, it will reinforce their idea that
religion is the basis of nationhood.
• Kashmir's strategic location is in the vicinity of Central Aisa, China, etc.
• It is rich in water resources.
• The Himalayas are regarded as water towers of South Asia.

• Solutions to the Kashmir issue:

• 1. Conducting plebiscite:
• Pakistan insist on it to elicit the public opinion.
• Though originally, it was suggested by UN as a part of 1949 ceasefire agreement, it could
not be conducted as Pakistan did not withdraw its forces from the ceasefire lines.
• Today, India rejects it as the demography of the region has changed as it has been
under Pakistani occupation for about 75 years.
• Thus, the plebiscite would not reflect the genuine opinion.
• 2. Third-party mediation:
• India rejects it since it is violative of the Shimla Agreement under which both the countries
agreed to settle their differences peacefully through bilateral negotiations.
• The Lahore declaration of 1999 reiterates the Shimla agreement in 'letter and spirit'.
• However, the Pakistan military argues that the Shimla agreement was a treaty after
the devastating laws of the 1971 war.
• It was signed under duress and therefore cannot be the basis of bilateral relations.
• 3. Genuine long-term Solutions to the Kashmir dispute can be found in politically
imaginative solutions:
• Former PM, Atal Bihari Bajpayee had suggested that any solution to the Kashmir dispute
has to be found under the paradigm of Insaniyat(humanity), Jamooriyat(democracy),
and Kashmiriyat(respect for unique Kashmiri identity).
• Former PM, Dr. Manmohan Singh along with his Pakistani counterpart had reportedly
developed an understanding to convert LoC into a soft border.
• It would be tantamount to demilitarisation of the region, joint patrolling of the
borders, and free movement of people, goods and services across LoC.
• However, before any such solution could be implemented, the dialogue was disrupted by
the Mumbai terror attack and the consequent removal of Pervez Musharraf from his
political office.
• Present situation:
• The Government of India abrogated article 370 and Article 35A which ended the special
status of J and K and bifurcated into two union territories bringing Kashmir under the
direct administrative control of the central government.
• Though it is a step to check cross-border infiltration as well as militancy in the valley,
the consequent fortification has in fact resulted in rise of violence in Kashmir.
• Pakistan insists on the Grant of statehood and No change in the demography of the valley
are essential pre-condition for the resumption of India-Pakistan relations.
• The long-term solution to peace in the valley will be borne in out of box solutions or
creative solutions to the Kashmir dispute.
•
• Issue of Siachen Glacier(07:49 PM):
• It is the Largest Non-Polar Glacier.
• Thus, referred to as the third pole of the world.
• It is the source of the Nubra river and Shyok river which are tributaries of the Indus
river.
• This glacier is located in the Eastern Karakoram range and it represents the world's
highest battlefield.
•
•
• Cl7
Indus Water Treaty(05:15 PM)
• The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan
signed on September 19, 1960. The treaty was signed by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal
Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan.
• It was brokered by the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development).
• The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) deals with the river Indus and its five tributaries.
• Provisions of the Treaty:
• 1. According to the treaty, all the water of eastern rivers shall be available for unrestricted
use in India.
• 2. India should let the unrestricted flow of water from western rivers to Pakistan.
• 3. It doesn’t mean that India can’t use the western river’s water. The treaty says that India
can use the water in western rivers for “non-consumptive” needs. Here non-consumptive
means we can use it for irrigation, storage, and even electricity production.(But India has
not fully utilized this provision so far).
• 4. The treaty allocates 80% of the water from the six-river Indus water system to Pakistan.
• 5. A Permanent Indus Commission was set up as a bilateral commission to implement and
manage the Treaty.
• 6. Though Indus originates from Tibet, China has been kept out of the Treaty.
• Why was the Indus Water Treaty in news?:
• Indus Water Treaty is considered to be one of the most successful water-sharing endeavors
in the world today.
• For 56 years, both India and Pakistan are peacefully sharing the water of the Indus and its
tributaries, thanks to The Indus Water Treaty (IWT).
• Because of the confrontations between India and Pakistan over other issues, the water
treaty naturally comes into the picture.
• After the Uri cross-border attack by Pakistan in 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
had said “Blood and Water cannot flow simultaneously.”
• There are issues between India and Pakistan, but there has been no fight over the water
after the Treaty was ratified. Most disagreements and disputes have been settled via legal
procedures provided for within the framework of the treaty.
• Can India Walk out of the Pact unilaterally?
• The treaty has no provision for either country unilaterally walking out of the pact.
• Article XII of the treaty says “The provisions of this Treaty, or, the provisions of this Treaty
as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated
by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments.”
• Still, if India wants to go about abrogating it, the country should abide by the 1969 Vienna
convention on the law of treaties.
• Had the Indian President signed the treaty?
• The validity of the treaty is being challenged in court as it was signed by the Prime minister
of India who is not head of the Indian republic.
• The President of India is the official head of the state.
• Should India violates a bilateral treaty with Pakistan because of cross-border attacks?
• The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was meant to reduce hostilities between India and Pakistan.
• It should be kept in the same spirit.
• India has always dealt with security and water issues separately from Pakistan.
• 80% of Pakistan’s 21.5 million hectares of farmland is irrigated by the river Indus and its
tributaries.
• Reducing the water flow to Pakistan will unleash havoc there (especially in Punjab and
Sindh province).
• Breaking the Indus Water Treaty doesn’t make any sense as India at present does not have
enough infrastructure to use the additional water available. It may create floods in the
Kashmir valley as well.
• The decision of not giving water to Pakistan may further enrage the terror elements in the
country, making them intensify their attacks on India.
• Not respecting the Indus Water Treaty, may invite the global condemnation of India as the
treaty is an international agreement.
• Neighbors like Nepal and Bangladesh with whom we have water treaties may turn
skeptical.
• There are concerns that China may also block the water of The Brahmaputra to Assam.
• The Kashmir issue will get a whole new dimension if India withdraws from the treaty. Not
only this, it would trigger the formal beginning of water wars
• India, aspiring for a seat in the UNSC, should safeguard rather than violate bilateral
treaties.
• The approach of government should be to utilize provisions available in Indus Water Treaty
itself. But building infrastructure across Indus will take time.
• Summary:
• India has never used our rights on the western rivers. Under the Indus Water Treaty, we can
make use of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation, storage, and even for producing
electricity, in the manner specified.
• If we just do what we are entitled to under the Treaty, it would be enough to send jitters
through Pakistan.
• It would be a strong signal without doing anything drastic.
Sir Creek issue(05:39 PM)
• What is Sir Creek?
• Sir Creek is a 96-km strip of water disputed between India and Pakistan in the Rann of
Kutch marshlands.
• The Creek opens up in the Arabian Sea and roughly divides the Kutch region of Gujarat
from the Sindh Province of Pakistan.
• What is the dispute?
• The dispute lies in the interpretation of the maritime boundary line between India and
Pakistan.
• It predates India’s independence. It was a dispute between the princely state of Kutch and
the commissionerate of Sindh(it was part of the Bombay Presidency).
• The dispute was taken up by the then Government of Bombay, which conducted a survey
and mandated its verdict in 1914.
• This agreement has two contradictory paragraphs, which make India and Pakistan
contenders on the same issue.
• Paragraph 9 of this verdict states that the boundary between Kutch and Sindh lies ‘to the
east of the Creek,’ (Green Line) which effectively implied that the creek belonged to Sindh
and, therefore, to Pakistan.
• On the other hand, Paragraph 10 states that since Sir Creek is navigable most of the year.
According to international law and the Thalweg principle, a boundary can only be fixed in
the middle of the navigable channel, which meant that it has been divided between Sindh
and Kutch, and thereby India and Pakistan.
• India has used this para to consistently argue that the boundary needs to be fixed in the
middle of the creek. Pakistan, however, claims that Sir Creek isn't navigable but India
claims that since it's navigable in high tide, the boundary should be drawn from the mid-
channel.
• Another agreement in 1925 to resolve the dispute depicted the boundary to lie mid-
channel (Red Line), and was implemented by the installation of mid-channel pillars back in
1924.
• In recent past history, the question of boundary in the Sir Creek region came up the first
time for discussion in 1969, when a delegation from the Government of India visited
Islamabad for the purpose of actually settling the question of boundary alignment from BP
1175 to Mouth of Sir Creek opening up into the Arabian Sea.
• Since then twelve rounds of talks and three technical level meetings have been held in this
regard but any success could not be met.
• Significance of this region:
• 1. Fishing resources:
• Sir Creek is considered to be among the largest fishing grounds in Asia.
• 2. Energy security:
• The region is rich in oil and gas below the sea bed, and control over the creek will add
enormously to the energy potential of each nation.
• 3. Security:
• The Mumbai attack terrorists came to India through the Sir Creek region.
• How Convention of the Laws of the Sea has further increased the tension?:
• Initially territorial waters extended only to 12 nautical miles but since the advent of the
1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, a coastal state can now have control over five
sea zones: internal water, territorial sea area (12 nautical miles wide), contiguous zone (12
nautical miles wide), the (EEZ) Exclusive Economic Zone (200 nautical miles wide), the
continental shelf (from 200 nautical miles up to maximum 350 nautical miles wide).
• The EEZ can thus be exploited commercially both for undersea energy as well as nutrient
sources.
• The said Convention gives additional rights to both India and Pakistan over sea resources
up to 200 nautical miles in the water column and up to 350 nautical miles in the land
beneath the water column.
• With the adaptation of the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention by both countries, the
governments have suddenly realized the enormous sea resources that can be lost or won
on the basis of the land terminal point where the border between India and Pakistan ends.
• That is why Sir Creek has now become more contentious than ever before.
• Pakistan's Argument:
• Pakistan claims the entire Sir Creek based on a 1914 agreement signed between the
government of Sindh and the rulers of Kutch.
• India's arguments:
• India contests Pakistan’s claim, stating that the boundary lies mid-channel of the Creek.
• In its support, it cites the Thalweg Doctrine in International Maritime Law, which states that
river boundaries between two states may be divided by the mid-channel if the water body
is navigable.
•
Who is been affected?
• The biggest casualty of not delimiting Sir Creek is the incarceration of thousands of
innocent fishermen from the border region who are routinely arrested and their boats and
materials confiscated under the premise of illegal intrusion, even though there is no
cognizable territorial and maritime boundary delimitation in the area.
• These innocent civilians are deprived of their fundamental human rights. They are denied
consular assistance; many are allegedly tortured and languish in jails while being
subjected to horrible living conditions and without any meaningful access to the judicial
process.
• Some prisoners go missing and may even be presumed victims of custodial killings. In
goodwill gestures, some prisoners are fortunate enough to be freed, often in swaps.
• Various studies have also shown that this region has become a safe haven for the
international drug mafia.
• Why deadlock?
• One of the chief reasons for the deadlock is that India wants the dispute resolved solely
through bilateral dealings in the spirit of the Shimla Agreement of 1972, while Pakistan
favors third-party involvement and wants to link the resolution of the dispute to contested
territories under Indian occupation.
• Options before both the Countries?:
• Designating the non-delineated area — Sir Creek and its approaches — as a zone of
disengagement or a jointly administered maritime park. Such a joint administration could
see licensed fishermen from both countries fish in the area without fear of incarceration.
• Alternatively, given the creek’s ecological sensitivity, both countries could designate the
area a maritime sensitive zone. In fact, given the challenges posed by climate change,
environment protection offers a significant opportunity for bilateral cooperation
India-Afghanistan Relation(06:09 PM)
• Structure of the topic:
• Timeline
• India's engagement vis-a-vis Recent events
• Present Policy of Government vis a vis the Talibanised Afghanistan
• Way forward
• 1979:
• Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
• USA and Pakistan jointly trained the group of militant fighters known as Mujahideen.
• By 1989, the Soviets tried to withdraw from Afghanistan.
• The Communist Government of Najibullah continued until 1992 even after USSR's
withdrawal.
• It was further in 1992, that the Mujahideen's occupied Kabul and were finally able to
topple Najibullah's government.
• India despite being wary decided to extend diplomatic recognition to the Mujahideen as it
was the puppet of Pakistan.
• Note:
• Pakistan's Foreign Policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan:
• Pakistan says that its policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan is of seeking strategic depth.
• It wants a puppet government in Afghanistan.
• Reasons:
• 1. Security dilemma with respect to India.
• 2. Insecurity dilemma vis-a-vis the disputed nature of colonial and imperial line that is
Duran line.
• This line artificially divides the Pashtuns between Pakistan and Afghanistan who now
share an ambition of greater Pashtunistan or at least joining their brethren in Afghanistan
creating the threat of territorial disintegration.
• Because Pakistan suffers from a Security dilemma vis-a-vis India and has a policy of
seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan, it starts to train the student refugees along its
Afghanistan border in the extreme Wahabi ideology.
• This group of fighters forms the Taliban and they launch attacks on the Mujahideens.
• In 1996, the Taliban occupies Kabul and implements extreme Sharia law.
• This Taliban Government is recognized by only three countries that are:
• Pakistan
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• None of the other countries in the world recognized the extremely orthodox Taliban
regime.
• In late 1996, a counter government to the Taliban comprising the tribal leaders of Afghan
society is formed.
• It is referred to as Northern Alliance.
• It was led by Ahmad Shah Masood and the President of the Northern Alliance
is Burharuddin Rabbani.
• The Northern Alliance was recognised as the legitimate Government by India, Iran, Russia,
and the other countries.
• They operated from Panjshir valley.
• The incidence of 9/11 in 2001 when the Twin towers in the USA were attacked and
consequently the US launched the Global War on terror.
• In 2001 itself, ISAF(International Security Assistance Force) led by NATO which in turn
led by the USA was able to depose the Taliban from Kabul.
• In 2001, Hamid Karzai was instilled as interim President of Afghanistan.
• Later on 2004 and 2009, he is elected as the President.
• 2014-2019, Ashraf Ghani was elected as the President.
• In December 2014 ISAF ended its 17-year-old combat mission and in January 2015, they
launched the mission of resolute support,
• 2017, Af-Pak policy of US under Trump:
• Like its policy of Obama was aimed at the military stalemate by authorizing an additional
5000 soldiers.
• Under this policy, he also called out the dubious role played by Pakistan-
Sharing intelligence and providing safe havens to the Taliban leaders.
• However, within a year, it was clear that the insurgency by the Taliban cannot be defeated
because of the undisrupted supply and communication lines through Rawalpindi.
• At least within the coming year before Trump faced re-election.
• Thus, he changed the strategy and in 2019 he appointed Zalmey Khalizad as the special
representative to Afghanistan with the mandate to come out with a political agreement to
end the US- Afghanistan war.
• Consequently:
• The three-way negotiations started:
• a. Doha track between Taliban and USA.
• b. Kabul track between Afghanistan(Ashraf Ghani Government) and the USA.
• c. Rawalpindi track between Pakistan and USA.
• The Doha deal was finalised between the Taliban and USA in 2020.
• The USA committed to a withdrawal deadline in return for vague assurances about the
Taliban cutting its ties with Al-Qaeda with other groups and engaging in the peace process
with the other Afghan sections.
• By committing the Kabul government to release over 5000 Taliban fighters in its custody,
the USA fatally undermined it.
• While this agreement was negotiated and even as US forces withdrew, the Taliban
continued with their military advances.
• The intra-Afghan dialogue was inaugurated in September 2020 and soon reached an
impasse.
• President Ashraf Ghani flee from Kabul while the USA was withdrawing its forces and the
Taliban gaining greater territorial control in Afghanistan by the day.
• Finally, days after the USA's complete withdrawal on 15th August 2021, the Taliban
reoccupied Kabul.
• While this brought an end to USA's longest war, the conservative Sharia rule is back in
Afghanistan.
• Despite, the Taliban claiming itself to be a moderate political entity but its decisions such
as changing the name of the country to Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, bringing back
the old flag, stopping secondary education of girls, and asking women to dress in
clothing that covers everything but their faces, they were dismissed from government
jobs and forbidden for traveling alone.
• They have outlawed playing non-religious music, ban human figures in advertising, and
important ministerial posts have been assigned to old hardline clerics.
• Thus, it doesn't seem that much has changed with the Taliban.
• Though the Taliban promised China, Russia, and other powers that they will prevent any
attack on Afghan soil groups such as Islamic State Khorasan, ETIM(East Turkistan Islamic
Movement), Al-Qaeda, Jaisg-e- Mohammad, Lashkar-e- Taiba continue to be present in
the Afghan soil.
• Thus, the Taliban or its ideology does not seem to have changed much.
• The reaction of the world to the USA's exit:
• 1. India:
• It has been cautious about its exit.
• India was dependent on the security provided for its investments as well as personnel on
the US in Afghanistan.
• Within two days of the Taliban taking over Kabul, India shut down its embassy and
withdrew its personnel.
• 2. China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia:
• they described USA's continued presence as a cause of violence and instability in
Afghanistan.
• Unlike, in 1996 when they recognized Northern Alliance as the legitimate government of
Afghanistan, this time they had communication channels established with the Taliban.
• In fact, China's Afghanistan policy which is centered on safeguarding its investments and
economic interests in Afghanistan will continue to be guided by that of Pakistan.
• Pakistan's triumphalism was evident in ISI's chief's visit to Kabul to resolve the differences
over power-sharing among various factions of Afghanistan.
• It enabled the announcement of the first cabinet list by the Taliban.
• In fact with the Taliban occupying Kabul, Pakistan at least momentarily succeeded in its
pursuit of strategic death in Afghanistan.
• Cl8

India's role in Afghanistan

• India's role until now in Afghanistan:
• India has historical and civilisational ties with Afghanistan.
• Following the ouster of the Taliban Regime in 2001.
• India reopened its embassy.
• It found a welcoming environment with Northern Alliance leaders holding the key
ministerial posts.
• Nature of India's engagement:
• Since 2001, India has been limited to a state-building role in Afghanistan.
• Reason:
• 1. Primarily due to USA's sensitivities as it was dependent upon the communication and
security lines through Pakistan which shares along land border with Afghanistan.
• The USA was catering to Pakistan's security dilemma vis-a-vis India.
• Thus, India's military presence was absent.
• Evidence of India's engagement:
• 1. India is Afghanistan's biggest regional development partner.
• In the past two decades, India has committed US 3.1 $ billion in economic aid to
Afghanistan.
• 2. It has built a children's hospital, the Afghan Parliament, Salma dam- India-
Afghanistan friendship dam, Habiba girls' high school, etc.
• It runs half a dozen medical camps providing prosthetics.
• India has built power transmission lines enabling electricity imports from Uzbekistan,
cold storage units for local agricultural produce, etc.
• 3. Over a thousand Afghan students receive scholarships every year for college and
university education and an equal number attend short-term professional courses(IT,
management, and accounting), basic skilling courses such as plumbing, carpentry, etc.
• UN Development program has partnered with India to train Afghan civil servants.
• To strengthen local governance, India has funded over 400 small development projects,
implemented by the NGOs at the district level.
• As a land-locked country, Afghanistan was dependent on the Karachi port for sea access.
• To break such dependence on a single country, India undertook to develop the Chabahar
port in Iran and also built 200 Km long Zerang-Delaram Highway in Afghanistan to
connect it to the border town of Zahedan in Iran.
• This would revive Afghanistan's traditional role as the cross-road connecting South Asia,
Central Asia, and West Asia.
• India spearheaded Afghanistan's membership in SAARC.
• In 2011, India became the first country with which Afghanistan signed a strategic
partnership agreement.
• Even though, India's military role in Afghanistan was limited.
• India's developmental partnership with Afghanistan has included more than 500 projects
spread across each of its 34 provinces in critical areas such as power, water supply, road
connectivity, etc.
• All Indian Projects have been based on demands raised by Afghanistan and have made a
real impact on the lives of the people.
• Thus, earning India a lot of goodwill in Afghanistan among the people.
• Irony:
• But despite this goodwill, India finds itself on the margins of international diplomacy on
Afghanistan.
• Evidence of India is not represented in the international diplomacy of Afghanistan:
• UN Secretariat organised a meeting on Afghanistan of what was referred to as the 6+2+1
group.
• 1 here represensts Afghanistan
• 6 countries here represent those neighboring countries that share a land border with
Afghanistan. The countries are:
• Pakistan,
• Iran,
• China,
• Turkmenistan,
• Tajikistan and
• Uzbekistan
• 2 represents two global powers which means Russia and the USA.
• India was conspicuous by its absence.
• The reason for the non-inclusion of India was cited as that it is not one of its physical
neighbors Afghanistan.
• But the true reason was the failure of India to engage in dialogue with the Taliban.
• India for the longest time had insisted on an 'Afghan-owned, Afghan controlled, Afghan-
led' dialogue process.
• The third regional security dialogue held in New Delhi in September 2021 saw the
participation of NSAs from Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and
Turkmenistan.
• Pakistan and China were the two prominent absentees.
• Though the NSA from Russia participated but he commented that multiple dialogue
mechanisms would complicate the unfolding situation in Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan.
India is now seeking gradual engagement with the Taliban(06:15 PM)
• While India has followed the Policy of disengagement with Kabul and supported
the Northern Alliance during the first tenure of the Taliban in 1996, India is
seeking gradual engagement with the Taliban presently.
• Evidence:
• 1. In September, the Indian ambassador to Qatar met a senior Taliban official at the
Indian embassy in Doha.
• 2. In October, Indian officials met with the Taliban's Deputy PM in Moscow at a regional
conference on Afghanistan.
• 3. India has responded to calls for Humanitarian assistance by the Taliban by exporting
50 metric tonnes of wheat, 5 lakh doses of COVID vaccines for Afghans, and one million
doses of COVID 19 vaccines to Afghan refugees in Iran, other medicines, and winter
clothing since Afghanistan is facing a near total economic collapse.
• 4. For the first time, since the Indian embassy in Kabul was evacuated, an official
delegation led by the joint secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs visited
Afghanistan.
•
•
• Reasons:
• 1. According to MEA, this visit was only to coordinate India's humanitarian assistance for
the Afghan people.
• However, The reason why India seeks eventual engagement with the Taliban is to address
its three primary concerns vis-a-vis the Taliban's return to the country.
•
• Concerns:
• 1. To protect billions of dollars in investments made in the past two decades and to retain
the goodwill of the Afghan people.
• 2. Security linked:
• When the Taliban were in power in the 1990s, Afghanistan became safe haven for anti-
India terrorist activities and groups.
• India saw a sharp rise in violence in the Kashmir valley during the Mujaheddin/Taliban
reigns of Afghanistan.
• New Delhi would want commitments from the Taliban that they would not offer support
for anti- India groups.
• 3. The Taliban remaining a Pakistani satellite forever is not in India's strategic interests.
• It would only increase Pakistan's geopolitical importance.
• To assuage these concerns, engagement with the Taliban is necessary.
• Taliban is reciprocating New Delhi's outreach and has insisted that the government of
India reopen its diplomatic mission in Afghanistan:
• For it has committed to providing a secure environment for its normal functioning.
• 1. Without substantive engagement with New Delhi, a more comprehensive global
outreach is not possible.
• 2. India is one of the primary human assistance providers to Afghanistan even after the
Taliban's takeover of Kabul and India shutting its diplomatic engagements with the
country has prioritized the well-being of the ordinary Afghans.
• To balance Pakistan:
• The pressure on Afghanistan-Pakistan ties is growing with the Taliban trying to negotiate
a so-called peace deal between the Pakistani army and Tehreek e Taliban
Pakistan(TTP).
• Though the ceasefire has been announced, the ground realities continued to be turbulent.
• Taliban has continued to defy Pakistan by giving haven to TTP.
• It is therefore the Taliban is reaching out to India.
• The Afghan Government has said "Afghan India relations would move forward based
on mutual respect and joint bilateral legitimate interest and would not be influenced
by other country's inter-rivalry."
•
• Way forward:
• 1. In the context of strain on Taliban- Pakistan ties, New Delhi has an opportunity to reset
the terms of engagement with the Taliban on its own terms.
• Greater engagement with the Taliban will create new possibilities as other regional
players- China, Russia, and Iran- are looking for ways to step up their engagement.
• 2. But India needs to be mindful that the Taliban continues to be a regressive and
repressive regime.
• India needs to underline its commitment to Afghan minorities and women and work with
the wider international community to hold the Taliban accountable,
• It should insist on an inclusive Government in Afghanistan.
• India should not be in a hurry to offer diplomatic recognition to the Taliban's pre-
dominantly 'Pashtun men only' Government.
• It should maintain a policy of gradual bilateral engagement rooted in realism.

Government of India's policy on Afghanistan(07:26 PM)

• Its policy has been shaped by India's special relationship with the Afghan people and the
key elements of UNSC resolution 2593 which was passed in August 2021 under India's
Presidency.
• Key elements of UNSC resolution:
• Uphold human rights in Afghanistan
• Demand Afghan territory should not be used for terrorism
• a negotiated political settlement should be found out of the crisis.
Heart of Asia conference(07:42 PM)(currently phased out)
• It came to an end with the Taliban taking over Kabul.
• It was jointly launched by Afghanistan and Turkey in 2011.
• To encourage Afghanistan's neighboring countries to play a constructive role in
establishing peace and stability in Afghanistan and consequently achieve regional
stability.
• It was important because it recognised the fact that a secure and stable Afghanistan is vital
for the prosperity of Asia.
• It allowed Afghanistan to set its own agenda from a regional perspective.
• The first conference was held in Istanbul, the second in Kabul, the sixth in Amritsar, and
the ninth conference was held in Tajikistan in March 2021.

India-Nepal Relations(07:49 PM)

• Q. Despite the closeness in terms of culture, geography, and people-to-people relations,
India- Nepal relations are fraught with challenges.
• Q. India does not have a Nepal Policy rather it is a subset of India's China policy. Comment.
• Q. India-Nepal relations have been disrupted because of several bilateral issues and just
invoking a special relationship based on ties of a shared culture, language and religion
would be insufficient. Examine.
• Q. Comment on India-Nepal dispute vis-a-vis 1950 treaty of Peace and friendship.
• Cl9
The unprecedented closeness between the two countries(05:13 PM)
• a. Roti-Beti ka sambandh:
• Cross border marriages
• Inter dining
• Pahari people are dominant
• Tarai region: Madhesis
• Cultural ties:
• Religious linkages: Hindus, Buddhism
• Language linkages: Nepali, Bhojpuri, Maithili
• Political ties:
• Shah kings who ruled Nepal for more than 200 years were in fact Sisodia Rajputs from
India.
•
• Military ties
• Economic ties
• Strong economic ties in terms of Nepali currency pegged to the Indian rupee.
• Out of 29 million Nepalis, 7 million work in India.
• SD Muni Said that such is the closeness that these two countries are lodged in each other
intestines.
• As close neighbors, India and Nepal share unique relations characterized by open
borders(one can travel without a visa and passport) and deep-rooted people-to-
people contact sharing family ties and cultural relations.
• India-Nepal denotes 'roti-beti ka Rishta.
• The cultural connection between the two countries runs from Lumbini to Bodh
Gaya and Pashupatinath to Kashi Vishwanath.
• The prominent languages of Nepal are:
• Nepali
• Maithili
• Bhojpuri
• and they are rooted in Indian Languages:
• Sanskrit
• Pali and
• Hindi
• The Shah kings of Nepal(1769-2008) were Sisodia Rajputs of Rajasthan.
• Nepal has a total population of 29 million of which 7 million live and work in India.
• Even geographically, the Tarai region of Nepal runs into the Northern Indian plains forming
a contiguous geographical unit.
• The unprecedented closeness is also evident in the Indian Army having a Gorkha
regiment that recruits the Nepali Gorkhas.
• Thus, SD Muni, the prominent India-Nepal Relations expert, has famously commented that
the two countries are 'lodges in each other's intestines.
• Despite the such closeness, the relations remain fraught with challenges:
• Reasons:
• 1. India does not have an independent Nepal policy.
• Its Nepal policy is in fact a subset of India's China policy.
• Given India's persistent and grave insecurity vis-a-vis China.
• India seeks to micromanage affairs in Nepal.
• Hence, it is comparable to Pakistan's foreign policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan.
• Such is the deep insecurity vis-a-vis China that even Jawahar Lal Nehru had no hesitations
in declaring in the Indian Parliament on 6th December 1950 that "India's security will
enjoy primacy over Nepal's sovereignty".
• India cannot accept Nepal following the Policy of equidistance with respect to India and
China.
• It must prioritize its relations with India.
• Following the Chinese annexation of Tibet, India wanted to make Nepal a buffer state to
prevent China's direct access to the Northern Indian plains.
• Nepal was also concerned vis-a-vis Irredentist China and wanted to revive the special
relations it had with British India.
• However, Nepal is:
• a. Too big a country - 45th largest in the world: twice the size of Sri Lanka.
• b. Too proud of its non-colonial history.
• 2. To be a vassal state to another country:
• Political instability in Nepal:
• Nepal represents a pillared polity- the king, the Ranas(PMs), the Congress and the
Maoist have been the different power centers.
• India in trying to develop good relations with all the pillars, could not gain the trust of
either.
• In its short history of Constitutional development, it has seen five formal Constitutions
and two interim Constitutions.
• Because of such political instability, India could not form a coherent foreign policy vis-a-
vis Nepal.
• Lack of Professionalism in India's approach:
• Most of the Indian ambassadors have been from the state of UP and Bihar and
consequently have had kinship relations across the border.
• Thus, they fail to present a neutral picture of the ground realities in Nepal.
• Rather than building democratic institutions and structures in Nepal, India has
supported individuals who could serve as Indian stooges.
• India has often overlooked diplomatic protocols in its dealing with Nepal.
• The peace and friendship Treaty of 1950 was signed by Nepali PM and the Indian
Ambassador.
• This hurt the Nepali ego.
• Delay and at times failure in the implementation of the promised projects have created
scope for China's influence in the country, for example, China's growing presence in the
hydroelectric power sector in Nepal such as West Seti Dam.
• Nepal's founder Prithvi Narayan Shah compared Nepal to a "Yam" stuck between the two
Asian Giants- India and China.
• Thus, Nepal has always insisted on following a diversified foreign Policy to
counterbalance India.
• However, India insists on Nepal prioritizing its relations with India.
The close ties at people to people level are not replicated at state to the state level(06:16
PM)
• Pangs of Proximity:
• Given the societal and religious similarities with India, Nepal is acutely conscious of its
'independent identity' from India.
• Otherwise, they believe that they would be subsumed within the larger Indian identity.
• Anti-India sentiment is the barometer to measure Nepalese nationalism.
• This is the key systemic reason for poor India-Nepal state-to-state ties.
• Nepal has internalized the angst of a small state.
• They particularly resent India's big brother attitude.
• In recent times, other factors affecting state-to-state ties:
• 1. Left politics in Nepal
• 2. Vastly increased influence of China in Nepal,
The Treaty of peace and friendship, 1950(06:36 PM)
• Context:
• china's annexation of Tibet
• Provisions of the Treaty:
• India recognizes Nepal as the sovereign state.
• National treatment of each other's citizens in terms of employment including public
employment.
• However, India willingly has relinquished its right to seek public employment in Nepal.
• Nepal will give primacy to India in terms of infrastructure development including
hydropower projects and other business opportunities.
• Problems with the Treaty(06:54 PM):
• There exist no dispute with respect to the provisions of the Treaty.
• The problem lies in the secret letters that were exchanged along with the Treaty.
• Provisions of the Secret Letters:
• 1. Both countries shall not tolerate any act of aggression against one another.
• 2. Nepal shall not import arms from any other country except India.
• If it were to import arms from a third country, it will do so with explicit permission from
India and provided that India is unable to fulfill Nepalese requirements.
• Nepal's criticism of the Treaty:
• 1. It violates Nepal's Sovereignty since it allows India's interference in Nepal's foreign
and defense policy.
• 2. Since the Treaty was signed with the Rana's of Nepal who did not enjoy Nepali goodwill,
the treaty lacks legitimacy.
• 3. Nepal Claims that India gets disproportionate benefits from the Treaty.
• Way forward:
• 1. Since the Treaty is used to incite anti-India sentiments in Nepal, India should, like its
Treaty with Bhutan, agree to amend the Treaty.
• 2. Nepal draws substantive benefits through this Treaty.
• Since it allows for open borders between the two countries and Nepalese to seek
employment in India without any requirement of a work permit or others.
• It allows citizens of the two countries rights to buy property etc in the other country.
• 3. The provisions of the secret letter which required Nepal to consult India vis-a-vis its
defense requirements are no longer a secret and have often been violated.
• 4. In fact, the open borders are used by Pakistan to infiltrate terrorists and pump fake
currencies into India.
• Thus, every time in the past when India agreed to revise the Treaty, Nepali politicians
sidestepped.
• In fact revision of the Treaty is more a political issue.
• 5. In 2016, India and Nepal constituted an eminent person group to look into the revision of
the Treaty.
• It finalized its report in 2018 but it has not been officially received/adopted.
Hydro-electric power cooperation(07:11 PM)
• 1. Hydroelectric power potential of Nepal is 83000 MW of which 40,000 MW is feasible at the
current level of technology. However, Nepal produces around 1000MW.
• This results in severe power shortages in Nepal including long power cuts even in
Kathmandu.
• 2. Nepal imports 600 MW of electricity from India to manage its domestic demands.
• 3. Their reluctance of HEP to cooperate with India has resulted in its gross
underutilization.
• The optimal harnessing of their hydropower would not only meet their domestic demands
but generate surplus power to be exported to bring in the necessary Forex reserves.
• Nepal's Concerns vis-a-vis Indian investment in the HEP sector:
• 1. Slow progress and at times fail to deliver the projects on time.
• 2. Nepal alleges that India plans big dams which are ecologically and geologically
unsustainable.
• 3. While India demands primacy, Nepal wants to issue open tenders to allow better price
discovery.
• Way Forward(07:30 PM):
• India-Nepal entered into a power trading Agreement, in 2014 which allows for joint
investment in infrastructure building, joint marketing, and establishment of joint
transmission lines.
• They have agreed upon the development of the ARUN III 900 MW HEP project.
• The Mahakali Treaty which was signed in 1996 during Deuba's first term as Nepali
PM, covers Sharda and Tanakpur barrages along with the Pancheshwar Dam(5000 MW
project).
• Presently both sides have agreed to take the cooperation ahead with the early
finalization of a detailed project Report.
• The ambitious 7 billion dollar project will require political will to move forward.
• Also, PM Deuba has pushed through the ratification of 500 million US dollars grant
assistance Millenium challenge corporation despite reservation of its coalition partners.
• The grant provides for the construction of a high voltage electric power line.
• Earlier the opposition to the MCC grant was born out of the fear that the power line project
will be linked to India's electric grid which will increase Kathmandu's dependence on
New Delhi and harm its growing trade partnership with China.
• The joint vision statement on Power sector cooperation recognizes the opportunities for
joint development of the HEP projects along with cross-border transmission linkages.
• Reasons:
• Improving India-Nepal relations is the natural objective of BJP led NDA government.
• BJP represents ethnonationalism. Thus, believes the shared link of Hinduism and the close
societal ties will aid in developing close relationships between the two countries.
• PM Modi visited Nepal in the months following, his becoming the Prime Minister, his visit to
Nepal in Aug 2014 was the first visit by an Indian PM to Nepal in 17 years.
• In his first term, he visited Nepal four times.
• Deuba of Nepali congress supports good India-Nepal relations, unlike, the Left parties in
Nepal- the Maoist and the Unified Marxist Leninist, they privilege relations with China.
• Note:
• Unlike Nepal, HEP cooperation between India and Bhutan is an example of win-win
economic diplomacy.
• Under this cooperation, India provides finance in the form of loans and grants to
establish HEP plants in Bhutan and once the domestic energy requirements are met,
Bhutan exports surplus power to India at subsidized rates.
• Thus, while HEP has become the major export item for Bhutan, India gets clean energy at
low prices.
• Cl10]
The territorial dispute related to Kalapani and Susta (5:11 PM)
• India and Nepal share 1850 km of open borders with 5 Indian states (UP, Bihar,
Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Sikkim).
• 98% of the border is well demarcated.
The Kalapani Dispute:
• This dispute is over 35 square kilometers of the triangular region located on the India-
Nepal-China trijunction.
• This region is en route to Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
• India claims this region to be part of the Pithoragarh district of Uttrakhand, while Nepal
claims it to be part of the Dharchula district.
• Origin of the dispute:
• The disputed origin of the river Kali (Nepal refers to the river as Mahakali).
• The treaty of Sugauli, 1816 demarcated Nepal’s western borders by river Kali.
• However, the two countries dispute the origin of the river.
• According to India, the origin of the river Kali lies in spring at Lipulake.
• While Nepal claims the river to originate from Limpiyadhura, North-West of Lipulake, thus
Nepal lays claim to the entire Kalapani region.

Why in news recently? (5:18 PM)

• While dealing with political factions of his ruling coalition, Prime Minister KP Oli whipped
up the nationalist sentiments over the Kalapani area.
• India, following the abrogation of Article 370, reorganized the state of J&K into two UTs.
• And thereby, produced a new political map of India, without any changes vis-a-vis its
international borders.
• However, former PM Oli found a political opportunity in the same and got the Nepali
legislature to endorse through a constitutional amendment, a new Political map of Nepal,
which includes the Kalapani region as a fingerlike projection into India along with the
Susta region.
• Also, the amendment led to the inclusion of the new map into the Nepali Emblem which is
present on the Nepali letterheads.
• Such a new political map and the emblem did not alter the ground situation (it all soured
the bilateral relations).
The strategic importance of Kalapani: (7:24 PM)
• It is strategically vital since located at a height of 20000 feet.
• Since the 1962 War, the Indian military has had a permanent post in Kalapani.
• It provides a vantage point for the Indian military to observe the activities of the PLA
(People Liberation Army) along the LAC.
• It is presently manned by ITBP forces.
• Such a military observation post has become all the more vital given the recent border
conflict between India and China in Laddakh.

Way forward:
• In the spirit of the Gujral Doctrine, India should recognize Kalapani to be Nepali territory
but on the condition that Nepal permanently leases it to India.
• This would satisfy the nationalist sentiments in Nepal, without compromising India’s
strategic interest.
Susta Dispute: (5:30 PM)
• Origin of the dispute:
• The dispute is traced to the changing river course of river Gandak, which is referred to as
the Narayani river in Nepal.
• When the treaty of Sugali was signed, Susta was located on the right bank of the River
Gandak.
• Which falls in Nepal.
• But presently, because of changing river course, it is located on the left bank of the river,
which is part of India.
 Way forward:
• The existing bilateral treaties have not taken into consideration, the shifting river courses
of the Himalayan rivers.
• India and Nepal should resolve it by taking into consideration all the shared environmental
characteristics.
China in Nepal: (5:35 PM)
• China provides aid to Nepal for the development of roads, etc.
• China and Nepal have signed Cross Himalayan Connectivity Network.
• They are also developing a rail network between Kathmandu and Kerang, Tibet.
• 2nd largest trade partner of Nepal is China. China has pledged the highest FDI to Nepal.
• China has given access to seaports to Nepal.
Hope for India:
• Seaport access given by China is 3500 km.
• Geographical limitations in China-Nepal relations.
• Hence, India is pursuing increased connectivity with Nepal.
• India can increase private investment and FDI in Nepal.

India-Bangladesh Relations:
• Important phases in India-Bangladesh relations.
• Sonali Adhyaay (The Golden Chapter).
• We share a bond over strategic ties.
• Model Neighbourliness.
• Bilateral Issues (River water sharing, illegal migration).
Importance of Bangladesh to India: (6:22 PM)
• The geopolitical importance of Bangladesh:
• A strategic location as a wedge between the North-Eastern states and the rest of India.
• The North-Eastern states are landlocked, and they have shorter routes to the sea through
Bangladesh.
• Therefore, permanent transit rights through Bangladesh will not only help India overcome
its Chicken’s Neck dilemma but also spur socio-economic developments in North Eastern
India.
• Bridge to Southeast Asia:
• Bangladesh is a natural pillar of India’s Act East policy.
• Dhaka’s support in sub-regional initiatives such as BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India Nepal)
and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral, Technical, and Economic
Cooperation) is important to complement New Delhi’s outreach to South-East Asia.
• Bangladesh is an important transit corridor to bring Natural Gas from Myanmar.
• It is important to secure important SLOCs (Sea Lines of Communications), especially in the
South-Eastern Indian Ocean.
Evolution or Phases in India-Bangladesh Relation: (6:34 PM)
• 1971 to 1975:
• It is a good phase of the bilateral relationship.
• It was the time Majibur Rehman was the president of Bangladesh.
• And since India cooperated with Mukti-Bahini.
• 1972: Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Bangladesh.
• It was a phase of military rule in Bangladesh.
• Since the military officers had been be repatriated from the Pakistani Army, they inherited
an anti-India attitude.
• Also, the military rule emphasized on the Islamic identity of Bangladesh, consequently
Bangladesh found itself closer to Islamic Pakistan.
• During this period, Bangladesh Constitution was amended to incorporate Islam as the
state religion.
• The military pursued a foreign policy, principally governed by the strategy of distancing
itself from India.
• 1991-onwards:
• Marks the return of democracy to Bangladesh.
• Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP came into prominence.
• India-Bangladesh signed the Ganga water sharing treaty.
• From 2009 onwards, Bangladesh had 3 consecutive governments of the Awami League led
by Sheikh Hasina.
• This impact has led to the Golden Chapter in bilateral ties.
• Unlike China-Bangladesh relations, despite India’s key role, in the creation of independent
Bangladesh, there exists no bipartisan consensus vis-a-vis India-Bangladesh relations in
Bangladesh.
• PM Sheikh Hasina has hailed India-Bangladesh relations as ‘Model Good Neighbourliness’.
• The reason is multi-faceted relations such that India and Bangladesh cooperate in
conventional (health, environment, people-to-people relations), and non-conventional
sectors (peaceful use of nuclear energy, cyber security, etc.)
• External affairs minister S Jaishankar commented that very few countries share such close
fraternal ties.
Land Boundary Agreement: 7:16 PM
• It settled the 6.5 km of un-demarcated regions.
• Addressed the issue of adverse possessions.
• This issue arises because of changing river course.
• Exchange of enclaves between the two countries.
• It was a pending issue since 1974.
• It could be operationalized following the 100th CAA when the Land-Boundary agreement
was signed in 2015.
• In 2014, the maritime borders between the two countries were settled.
• India did not contest the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of
Bangladesh, though India lost claims on around 19500 sq-km of maritime area in the Bay of
Bengal.
• Once Sheikh Hasina's government came into power, it shut down the camps of various
Indian insurgent groups in Bangladesh.
• She extradited several leaders and members of the North-Eastern insurgent groups, and
sent clear signals, that she would not allow misuse of Bangladeshi soil against India’s
interest.
• Such steps by her government built bilateral trust and catalyzed India-Bangladesh
relations.
• Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia with a bilateral trade of around 10
billion dollars annually and a near equivalent amount of informal trade.
• India Bangladesh development cooperation is valued at around 10 billion USD consisting
of grants and lines of credit.
• Connectivity between the two countries has been prioritized.
• A direct bus service between Agartala and Kolkata via Bangladesh has been launched,
reducing the distance of travel to 500 km against 1650 km if it were to pass through
Chicken’s Neck Corridor.
• Passenger and fright railway services have been given a boost.
• Recently, Maitri Setu, a 1.9 km long bridge connecting Sabroom in Tripura to Ramgarh in
Bangladesh was inaugurated.
• Bangladesh has allowed the use of its Mongla and Chittoram Ports for the shipment of
goods to and from India.
• This has allowed the land-locked North Eastern Region (NER) to access the sea.
• Bangladesh seeks to join India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway to improve its
connectivity to South-East Asia and has pushed for the operationalization of the BBIN
Motor Vehicle Agreement.
• Defense Cooperation between India and Bangladesh has made significant progress. They
seek to institutionalize their defense cooperation. India has extended 500 million dollars of
Line of Credit for the purchase of defense equipment from India.
• Bangladesh is importing 1600 MWs of power from India.
• Over 3600 MWs of power projects are under implementation by Indian companies in
Bangladesh.
• Bangladesh has allowed the use of drinking water from the Feni river to meet the
requirement of Sabroom town in Tripura.
• New areas of cooperation:
• India, Bangladesh, and Russia have entered into a tripartite agreement on the
development of the Rooppur Nuclear Power plant in Bangladesh.
• Cyberspace:
• Bangladesh has provided cyber connectivity between the international gateway at Cox
Bazar to Agartala.
• It would lead to faster internet connectivity in the Indian North-Eastern States.
• The cost of the project is to be borne by the Government of India.
Border Haats: (7:47 PM)
• Border markets have increased in numbers, these markets were started in 2011 to help the
border people exchange limited goods for daily use across the border.
• This is a people-oriented initiative and helps to provide additional livelihood opportunities
in the remote border areas.
• The Sheikh Hasina government, occupying Dhaka for the third consecutive term has
provided the two countries the opportunity to cement their bilateral relations.
• In this regard, the two countries have come out with a ‘forward-looking roadmap’ with the
aim to make the progress achieved in the bilateral relations irreversible.

Bilateral Issues: (7:54 PM)

• Bangladesh:
• River water sharing.
• Adverse balance of trade.
• Rohingya issue.
• Issue of border killings.
• India:
• Illegal migration.
• Radicalization of Bangladesh society.
• China in Bangladesh.
• Cl11
• Q. Examine whether India-Bangladesh relations are in the Golden period of their ties.
(150 words/10 marks)

Bilateral issues(05:23 PM)

• Issues of Concerns to Bangladesh:
• The annual bilateral trade between the two countries is around 10 billion dollars of which
Indian exports to Bangladesh stands at about 9 billion dollars while imports from
Bangladesh are at about 1 billion dollars.
• Thus, the trade relations are extraordinarily tilted in India's favour.
• Reasons:
• 1. the Limited number of items in Bangladesh's export basket.
• 2. Non-tariff barriers imposed by India.
• Steps were taken by GoI:
• India has offered quota/duty-free access to Bangladeshi products under SAFTA(South
Asian Free Trade Agreements).
• Three SEZs have been notified in Bangladesh for Indian manufacturers which will
encourage them to manufacture in Bangladesh and export to India.
• India has extended lines of credit along with grants as a part of its developmental
cooperation.
• Until 2019, in eight years only 51% of the first 800 million dollars of the line of credit has
been utilised while barely any amount from the next two lines of credit has been mobilised.
• This has been primarily because of red tapism in India and slow project implementation in
Bangladesh.
• River water sharing agreement:
• India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers between them of which they have agreed on a river
water sharing agreement on just the Ganga river.
• Ganga River water agreement signed in 1996:
• This agreement is applicable for the lean period of the river which is between 1st January
till 31st May.
• It is valid for a thirty-year period.
• Its expiry is impending in 2026.
• What necessitated the agreement?
• It was necessitated because of the commissioning of the Farakka Barrage in 1975 to
divert water from Ganga to its distributary Hughly to ensure navigability of the Kolkata
port.
• Because of the construction of this barrage, Bangladesh became vulnerable to floods and
droughts depending on the GOI's action.
• However, Bangladesh is unhappy with the treaty.

•
• Bangladesh's grievances:
• 1. The Treaty is based on outdated hydrological data and the Ganga river flow rarely
crosses 70000 to 75000 cusecs.
• 2. Studies have shown that Bangladesh did not receive its guaranteed share during the
critical dry periods about 65% of the time.
• 3. In any case, the distribution of water based on Volumetric allocation is a reductionist
approach and misses the multi-dimensionality of the flow.
• Since the political leadership in both countries is well entrenched, the treaty's
eminent expiry provides an opportunity to explore appropriate mechanisms for river
sharing.
• Teesta river sharing agreement(06:00 PM):
• Teesta river originates in Sikkim and flows through West Bengal before entering
Bangladesh.
• It is a tributary of the Brahmaputra river.
• Importance of Teesta river:
• For Bangladesh:
• Its flood plains cover 14% of the Net sown Area and provide direct livelihood opportunities
to about 70% of Bangladesh's population.
• For India:
• It is the lifeline of North Bengal and almost half a dozen of the districts of West Bengal are
dependent upon the Teesta river.
• Previous attempts at sharing the river water:
• 1. In 1983, an Adhoc agreement was finalised under the aegis of the joint river
commission(JRC) for two years.
• Under it, India was awarded 39% of the river water flow while Bangladesh was awarded
36% and the remaining 25% of the water was unallocated.
• 2. In 2011, an interim agreement for 15 years was put forth.
• According to it, India's share would be 42.5%, Bangladesh's share would be 37.5% and the
remaining 20% of the river water would flow freely into the Bay of Bengal.
• However, because of the opposition of the West Bengal government, the agreement could
not be signed.
• The demand of Bangladesh:
• It demands near equitable sharing of the river Teesta.
• Stand of GoI:
• 1. Since 71% of the river's watershed and 86% of its flood plains are in India, Bangladesh
cannot insist on its equitable sharing.
• 2. The river is critical to support the districts of North Bengal.
• 3. The flow of the river has itself decreased because of global warming and the
consequent retreating of the glaciers feeding the river.
• CM of West Bengal recently commented on the reduced flow of the river water.
• The China angle:
• There have been reports of China and Bangladesh discussing a 1 billion dollar loan for a
complete restoration project on River Teesta.
• The project is aimed at managing the Teesta river basin efficiently- tackling the water crisis
and managing floods and droughts.
• Way forward:
• In the spirit of the Gujral doctrine, given the genuine nature of Bangladesh's
demand, India should try and finalise the Teesta river water sharing agreement between
 the two countries by bringing the Mamta Bannerjee or the West Bengal government on
board.
• It will aid India's image and augment its soft power.
• West Bengal government has proposed sharing of river water of other trans-border rivers
such as Torsa, Manshai, Sankosh, etc.
• There are reports that the two governments will soon sign an agreement on the
Kushiara river(this river flows from Assam into Bangladesh).
• Rohingya issue:
• They are believed to be of Bangladeshi origin and settled in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.
• They had been severely persecuted by the Junta regimes of Myanmar.
• They are also referred to as "Boat people", as they mainly use boats to flee to Bangladesh
and Thailand.
• Around a million refugees have found shelters in Bangladesh which has created economic
and security pressures for it.
• Consequently, it has requested India to use its good relations with Myanmar to pressurise it
to take back the Rohingya refugees.
• However, India is fearful that such pressure might push Myanmar towards China.
• Thus, India has rather provided humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh in the form of
food tranches and is undertaking housing projects in the Rakhine state for the
Rohingyas who choose to return.
• Citizenship Amendment Act and NRC(06:41 PM):
• The recent Indian policies such as enacting CAA and plans to implement NRC has triggered
fear of an impending exodus of people from Assam to Bangladesh.
• Also clubbing India's ally Bangladesh with hostile Pakistan and the failed state of
Afghanistan while implicitly highlighting the religious persecution of minorities in
Bangladesh, contends Bangladesh harms its international image.
• Thus, as a consequence of the two policies, a few upcoming ministerial-level visits were
canceled from Bangladesh.
• Killing along the borders:
• The year 2020 saw the highest number of border killings by the BSF.
• They shot at civilians, usually the cattle traders who are often unarmed trying to illegally
cross over the borders.
• Bangladesh is concerned about the absence of due legal proceedings and direct resort to
shooting at civilians.
• India has failed to take necessary action in this regard.
• Illegal migration into India is not unique to Bangladesh.
• It takes place in other South Asian neighbors as well.
• However, what makes it an issue of bilateral concern is the scale at which illegal migration
takes place.
• According to rough estimates, 40 million Bangladeshis illegally lived in India.
• It is thus also referred to as India's Mexico problem.
• Causes:
• 1. Push and pull factor:
• Push factor:
• Weak economy
• Poor living standard
• Agrarian distress with over-dependence on agriculture.
• High population density
• Radicalisation of Bangladeshi society
• Pull factors:
• Alternative livelihood opportunities
• Cross-border kinship relations;
• linguistic and cultural affinity
• 2. Porous borders
• 3. Corruption among border management agencies.
• Vote bank politics has prevented effective steps to check such illegal migration.
• Consequences:
• Severe pressure on already limited economic resources and infrastructural capacity.
• Rise in crime rate in the society.
• Xenophobia
• Fear of change in demography-Tripura state which was once a tribal majority state,
today comprises around 65 to 70% of the Bengali population.
• Get enlisted on electoral rolls and consequently affect democratic policy making in the
country.
• Steps were taken by the government of India:
• 1. illegal migration(determination by tribunal) act:
• It prescribed the procedure to detect illegal migrants and expel them from India.
• However, the burden of the proof was on the authorities making it difficult to establish a
person as an illegal immigrant.
• The act was eventually struck down by the Supreme Court in 2005.
• 2. Electric wiring of India-Bangladesh border:
• It is referred to as the Israeli solution to illegal migration.
• However, given the high population density along the India-Bangladesh border, India
could not leave the necessary no man's land alongside it.
• such initiatives only increased the hurdle to illegally migrate but did not kill the
determination.
• Also, women, children, and cattle succumbed to the barbed wires.
• Recently, the Government of India undertook the exercise of registering Indian citizens
under NRC to help identify illegal immigrants.
• However, even this step has not been successful to check illegal migration.
• Way forward:
• 1. Check corruption
• 2. Proper manning of the porous borders through intensive patrolling and the use of
technology aids like drones.
• 3. Extend developmental assistance such as infrastructure development, economic
diversification, and human resource training to check an eminent push factor.
• 4. Issue work permits:
• Given that the push and the pull factors on either side of the border are quite strong, illegal
migration cannot be completely stopped.
• Thus, GoI should consider regulating the number of migrants from Bangladesh into India.
• Benefits of issual of Work permits:
• 1. the probability of them participating in the democratic process ends.
• 2. The crime rates can be controlled
• 3. quality of human resources entering the country can be determined.
• 4. their numbers can be regulated
• 5. Will augment India's soft power
• Cl12
Radicalisation of Bangladeshi society(05:13 PM)
• Communal propaganda of radical groups such as Jamaat e Islami, HUJI, and HUJI-
B could spill across the border into India radicalising Indian youth is a cause of concern
presently.
• The war crime tribunals were established by the Sheikh Hasina administration during its
first term recently to bring the perpetrators of the war crimes as well as the collaborators
such as JeI who supported Pakistan against the freedom struggle movement of
Bangladesh.
• Anyways radical elements and communal ideas have been present in erstwhile East Bengal
and now Bangladesh.
•
• China in Bangladesh(05:21 PM):
• 1. India was the first country to recognise the sovereignty of Bangladesh and in fact
establish diplomatic relations with it ten prior to its independence.
• 2. China on the other hand established such relations in 1976.
• In 2016, China and Bangladesh have entered into a strategic partnership.
• China aims to deepen its relations with South Asian countries to bring them within its
sphere of influence while limiting that of India.
• This positively correlates with Bangladesh's look East Policy which is essentially designed
to lessen Dhaka's dependence on India.
• It supports Bangladesh's cooperation with China and South East Asia.
• Evidences of China in Bangladesh:
• China Taiwan tensions:
• Bangladesh has reiterated its support for the One China Policy during the recent ongoing
tensions.
• After winning the 2008 elections, Hasina's administration closed the Taiwanese business
representative office in Dhaka in response to a request from China.
• Since then, China has increased its engagement with Bangladesh.
• Trade and investment:
• 1. Since 2015, China has replaced India to emerge as Bangladesh's largest trading partner.
• 2. Bangladesh's garment industry which brings in more than 80% of the foreign currency
from exports is heavily dependent on China for raw materials.
• 3. China has allowed 99% duty-free access to Bangladeshi products and services to Chinese
markets.
• 4. Dhaka has joined BRI.
• 5. Chinese firm has built the multi-purpose bridge(6 km long on Padma river)
• 6. China has expressed interest to develop a smart city in Chittagong by reclaiming land.
• The project is to be funded by China in lieu of a share of profits.
• Rohingya issue(05:51 PM):
• Bangladesh has sought support from China to repatriate Rohingya refugees to Mayanmar
using its leverage with the ruling administration in the latter.
• China using its leverage with the Suu Kyi government brokered an agreement in November
2017 for the repatriation of 70000 Rohingya refugees
• However, fearing continued persecution the refugees refused their fear has been further
aggravated following the military stake over last year.
• However, fearing persecution, the refugees refused. Their fear has been further aggravated
following a military stake over last year in 2021.
• Defence Cooperation:
• China is the only country with which Bangladesh has a formal defence cooperation
agreement, 2002.
• Continuing with the Pakistani legacy, China is the major arms exporter to Bangladesh.
• It has supplied two submarines, missiles, guns, frigates, and fighter aircraft.
Bangladesh’s relation with India versus that with China:
• Sheikh Hasina during her China visit in July 2019 observed- Bangladesh's relationship with
India is organic.
• They share a unique bond ingrained in the blood and cannot be compared with any other
country.
• On the other hand, China is the partner in mega infrastructure projects.
• Conclusion:
• India should not be uncomfortable with an independent nation pursuing an independent
foreign policy.
• Till the time, it does not cross India's red lines(in terms of security).
• To limit foreign powers influence in India's neigbourhood, India should increase its own
engagement with the South Asian countries such that the scope of other powers
intervention automatically declines.
•
• India-Afghanistan relations:
• In June 2022, India reopened its embassy in Kabul - by sending a technical team of officials
to be based there.
• The Indian embassy is the 15th mission to be opened in Kabul, alongside – China, Russia,
Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Indonesia, the EU, and 4 Central Asian
Republics (other than Turkmenistan).
• the USA has delegated its diplomatic functions to the Qatari embassy in Kabul.
•
• Reasons for India reopening its embassy:
• Setup councillor and visa arrangements.
• To oversee the maintenance and restart of various developmental projects undertaken by
India and Afghanistan
• For effective delivery of humanitarian assistance.
• NSA has commented on the continuation of our engagement with the Afghan people.
• based on India's historical and civilisational relations with Afghanistan.
• India has decided to reopen its embassy.
• Has the Government of India recognised the Taliban government?
• No, India does not recognise the Taliban which took power by force ousting the Ghani
Government.
• However, the opening of the embassy is a step toward working more closely with the
Taliban as India is worried about the impact of terrorist groups, the opium trade and
migration from the region.
• There has been a shift in India's perception of the Taliban as a terror group to a quasi-
official entity.
• This was evident when India called upon the regional countries to enhance the capacity of
Afghanistan "to counter terrorism and terrorist groups" which pose a threat to regional
peace and security at the Dushanbe regional security dialogue.
 India and Indian ocean Region(07:07 PM)
• Alfred Mahan is a geopolitical scholar who commented "who will control the Indian
ocean will control the world".
• Importance of the Indian Ocean Region:
• Geopoliticalimportance
• Geo-economic importance
• Geo-strategic importance
• Geopolitical importance:
• Sea lanes of Communication:
• Two-thirds of the world's oil shipment passes through the region and more than 50% of
the world trade traverses IOR.
• Choke points
• For example,
• The most important choke point is
• Malacca strait,
• Hormuz strait,
• Bab el Mandeb,
• Suez Canal
• Sunda strait
• Lombok Strait
• Bali strait
• Geoeconomic importance:
• IOR(Indian Ocean Region) is home to 40% of the world's offshore hydrocarbon
• Significant fishery resources
• The Beach sands are rich in heavy minerals and placer deposits.
• Polymetallic Nodules(PMN) on the floor of Indian Ocean.
• Geo strategic importance:
• Conventional Security threats and
• Growing China's influence in the Region
• Non-Conventional Security threat
• Piracy of the coast of Somalia
• Climate change
• drug and human trafficking

India's Foreign Policy vis-a-vis this Region(07:28 PM)

• The Indian Ocean has been identified as one of the FP priorities of India.
• GoI has identified three FP goals vis-a-vis IOR:
• a. Strenhtening India's political and diplomatic relations with Indian Ocean littoral
countries.
• Establishment of India's leadership potential and role as a net security provider.
• Establishment of the rule-based stable maritime order.
• New Delhi has underlined its vision for IOR as SAGAR- Security and Growth for all.
• Indian Ocean Region Association
• Indian Ocean Naval Symposium.
Indian Ocean Naval Symposium(07:36 PM)
• It comprises 35 member countries and 9 observer states.
• Inaugural IONS was held in 2008 in New Delhi.
• The Chairman of the First IONS was India.
• Chairmanship lies with the navies of the member countries.
• The aim is to strengthen maritime security through Naval cooperation.
• Three working groups under IONS are:
• Maritime Security
• HADR(Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief)
• Information Sharing
• Naval inter-operability

Indian Ocean Rim Association(07:43 PM)

• It was formed in 1997.
• Indian Ocean Rim-Association for Regional Cooperation(Ind-ARC).
• The founding member countries were 14
• Presently member countries are 23
• The recent most member country is France.
• The member countries are:
• South Africa
• Mozambique
• Tanzania
• Kenya
• Somalia
• Yemen
• Oman
• UAE
• Iran
• India
• Bangladesh
• Thailand
• Malaysia
• Singapore
• Indonesia
• Australia
• Madagascar
• Seychelles
• Comoros
• Mauritius
• Maldives

•
• There are nine dialogue partners.
• IORA is an observer to UN General Assembly and the African Union.
• Secretariat:
• Mauritius
• and headed by Secretary General with a Fixed term.
• Nature of the organisation:
• It is based on the Principles of open Regionalism and soft regionalism.
• It is tripartite in nature
• Decisions are made by consensus and commitments are undertaken based on
a voluntary basis
• Cl13

Open Regionalism vs. Closed Regionalism: (5:11 PM)

• Open Regionalism:
• The benefits of trade liberalization are not limited to the member countries alone but are
extended to their trade relations with the rest of the world.
• Examples are IOR and APEC.
• Open regionalism does not lead to trade diversion.
• It is in line with trade creation.
• Which is the argument to support free trade in the world.
• Thus open regionalism is in fact a stepping stone to globalization.
Soft Regionalism vs. Hard Regionalism: (5:17 PM)
• Soft regionalism is based on legal agreements and foreseeable treaties and agreed-on
norms.
• Unlike hard regionalism, it is not based on concrete structuralization.
• The Asian countries, post-colonial newly independent countries tend to prefer soft
regionalism.
• ASEAN was an example of soft regionalism, until the development of three communities
under it.

Indian Ocean Rim Association, IORA:

• Bringing together representatives of government, business, and academia.
• To promote closer interaction and cooperation among them.
The objective of IORA: (5:24 PM)
• Initially, it was limited to economic cooperation.
• However, under the leadership of India, in 2013, goals were expanded to six priority areas.
• Maritime safety and security
• Trade and investment facilitation.
• Fisheries management.
• Disaster risk management.
• Academica and Science and technology.
• Tourism and cultural exchange.
• In addition to these six, IORA has identified two cross-cutting themes, namely, Blue
Economy and Women Empowerment.
IORA Leader’s Summit, 2017 in Jakarta, Indonesia: (5:30 PM)
• To mark the 20th anniversary of the organization.
• For the first time IORA session for the first time was organized, in which the heads of the
government and heads of the states of the member countries met.
• It resulted in the signing of the IORA Concord or the Jakarta Concord.
• It is the largely aspirational document, which was accompanied by IORA Action Plan, that
enlists the short-term, medium-term, and long-term objectives across the six priority
areas.

Challenges and Opportunities of IORA:

• Despite 25 years of its establishment, the effective achievements of IORA are few.
• Despite the opportunities in the region it has failed to transform into an effective
organization of cooperation.
Challenges:
• Regional diversity in terms of size of the economy (Yemen and Somalia on one hand,
Australia, Malaysia on the other hand).
• Therefore, agreeing on common agenda for economic cooperation is quite difficult.
• There is a huge lack in terms of political development and institutionalization of political
organizations in member countries.
• Security Challenges:
• Prone to conventional and non-conventional threats.
• China is the disruptor of the Rule of Law, and threatens freedom of navigation in one of the
primary energy and goods trade corridors.
• Lack of deep pockets like China.
• Therefore creating impediments to infrastructural and other cooperation.

Opportunities: (5:49 PM)

• Creation of maritime security architecture.
• Countries like India and Indonesia should take the leadership to revive IORA and impart it
with the necessary political momentum.
• Cooperate with like-minded countries such as Japan, to bolster investment and
infrastructure building in the region.
• Member countries should cooperate to balance revisionist China which threatens freedom
of navigation in the region.
China in India Ocean Region: (5:54 PM)
• US Defence Contractor Booz Allen Hamilton produced a report, ‘Energy Futures in Asia’,
warning of Chinese plans to increase its maritime footprint in the Indian Ocean by
employing the ‘string of pearls’ strategy.
• It is a strategy highlighting the Chinese intentions in the Indian Ocean region.
• It refers to a network of commercial and military facilities and relations with Indian Ocean
littoral countries.
Reasons for the deployment of this strategy:
• China is a manufacturing superpower.
• And its GDP is dependent on trade.
• To secure its energy and goods trade corridor in the Indian Ocean region.
• To overcome its Malacca Dilemma.
• To emerge as the prominent country of the region to enhance its global leadership claims.
• Geopolitical Alfred Mahan had commented, that one who controls the Indian Ocean will
rule the world.
• To check India’s hegemony in the region.
• China has developed deep sea ports in the littoral countries of the Indian Ocean.
• Examples are Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, Hambantota in Sri Lanka,
and Chittagong in Bangladesh.
• China has established its first overseas military base in Djibouti near the Strait of Bab-el-
Mandeb, one of the strategic choke points of the Indian Ocean.
• Under the BRI, China is carrying out various large-scale investments in building roads,
railways, ports, bridges, and canals. Kra Canal is being dug out in Thailand to overcome
China’s extraordinary dependence on Malacca Strait.
• The use of these infrastructures for surveillance and military purposes cannot be ruled out.
• China is to develop an economic project on Maldive’s Northernmost Atolls/ i Havan Project.
• It will allow China to monitor the strategic corridor that links India’s eastern and western
coastlines.
• China’s growing economic engagement with countries of the Indian Ocean region, which
can transform into strategic cooperation, is a cause of worry for India.
• Chinese naval vessels, warships, and research vessels have regularly been sighted in the
Indian Ocean.
• And have docked in ports of Sri Lanka, Maldives, etc.

Impact of String of Pearls on India: (6:31 PM)

• Endangers India’s maritime security.
• Impact on Indian economy whereby country’s economic resources would be diverted
towards defense and security.
• India’s strategic clout in the region stands to be diminished.

India’s Response:
• Strengthen Bilateral relations with littoral countries/impart diplomatic and political
priority to these countries.
• Build security partnerships with countries of the Indian Ocean:
• Development of Dual-use logistics infrastructure in Agalega Islands in Mauritius, as
Assumption Islands, Seychelles.
• Expand its existing access to Changi Naval Base, Singapore.
• India secured access to the port of Duqm, Oman for military and logistics use.
• Jointly develop Sabang port on the tip of Sumatra Island.
• Chabahar port in Iran.
• Sittwe Port in Maynmar.
• Indian Navy’s listening port in Northern Madagascar.
• India is building coastal radar networks in Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Seychelles, and
Mauritius for surveillance.
• India is the tacit security provider to Indian Ocean Island states by providing multi-purpose
offshore patrol vessels, surveillance air crafts, and helicopters, and hydrographic
assistance to increase maritime domain awareness of the respective countries, and India
vis-a-vis Chinese activities in the region.
• Partnership with extra-regional powers: India has entered into a logistics exchange
agreement with US and France to balance China in the region.

Conclusion: (6:53 PM).

• India’s Indian Ocean outreach coincides with its efforts to make a case for its role in the
wider Indo-Pacific.
• This understanding of India's strategic reach is widely accepted by the US and other major
powers in the region.
• The re-emergence of QUAD and its upgradation to summit level reflects this growing
consensus.

Regional Organisations in South Asia: (7:13 PM)

India-SAARC Relationship:
• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
• SAARC has eight member countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka).
• Question:
• SAARC is dead in water and the rest of the region has moved on to other forms of
cooperation. Though SAARC was the centerpiece of India’s neighborhood first policy,
give reasons for its failures. Suggest a way forward. (10 marks/150 words)
• Basic introduction.
• Need for regional cooperation.
• Achievenmentws of SAARC.
• Failures of SAARC.
• Consequences: push to other fora of cooperation.
• Issue of SAARC, Pakistan minus SAARC.
• China in SAARC.
•
• SAARC Principles:
• Respect for territorial integrity.
• Non-interference, etc.
• Achievements of SAARC satellites:
• SAARC satellites, food bank, universities, etc.
• SAARC emergency fund for COVID.
• Failure of SAARC:
• Evidence and Reasons.
• Irregular summits,
• The least integrated region in the world.
• Economic regional integration:
• PFA: Preferential Trade Agreement.
• Trade is conducted on the basis of the list of preferred items/articles.
• FTA: Free Trade Agreement:
• FTA is conducted on the basis of a negative list.
• Custom Union:
• There will be FTA between the member countries.
• They will also trade with the rest of the world at a common tariff rate.
• For example Eurasian Economic Union.
• Monetary Union:
• Common Monetary Policy.
• They will have a common central bank and currency.
• For example European Union.
Reasons for the failure of SAARC: (7:47 PM)
• India-Pakistan Rivalry.
• Influence of extra-regional powers.
• Size asymmetry (India being the largest).
• Reverse regionalism.
• Reductive nationalism: Their nationalism is gauged on the fact of being anti-India.
• Supplementary economic cooperation. E.g. India and Bangladesh compete in the trade of
similar products.
• Absence of deep pockets: For example, not as rich as China.
• Cl14
•
• Reasons and pieces of evidence of the failure of SAARC.
• Sub-regionalism has been an important fallout of the failure of SAARC.
• Bhutan backed out of the multilateral highway project- Bhutan- Bangladesh- India-
Nepal(BBIN) citing environmental concerns.
• South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Program(SASEC) was set up in 2001.
• The members are Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
• Aims include shared prosperity through connectivity.
• Any agreement with SAARC- after excluding Pakistan won't be feasible.
• SAARC minus Pakistan arrangement would also see connectivity issues for Afghanistan.
• India and Pakistan must keep their differences and insecurities aside to at least achieve
cooperation in certain low-lying sectors like Medical Tourism, Sports development, etc.
• The demand for Chinese membership in SAARC has been raised many times by both
Pakistan and Nepal.
• India can look for a suitable arrangement with China through cooperation and
compromise in other sectors.

China -South Asia Forum of Cooperation (CSAFC):

• It was established in 2018.
• Its membership comprises all SAARC countries except Bhutan, along with Myanmar and
Vietnam.
• India is also part of this organization.
• There were speculations about the inclusion of CSAFC under the Belt and Road Initiative(
BRI).
• India could have been a part of BRI as India would welcome investments and expertise for
infrastructure.
• But since the vital part of BRI, the CPEC passes through Gilgit Baltistan, which is Indian
territory illegally occupied by Pakistan.
• Being a part of BRI would have sanctified illegal encroachment of Indian territory.
• India is still a part of CSAFC because it distinguishes the economical and political pillars of
BRI.
• Indian foreign policy dexterity has till now been in bilateral relations much more than
multilateral arrangements.

Way forward for India to revive SAARC (5:30 PM):

• Improvement of India- Pakistan relations.
• C. Raja Mohan believes that "the caravan of South Asia is being slowed down by Pakistan".
• Boosting economic cooperation through full realization of SAFTA.
• Cooperation with like-minded powers like Japan to address the infrastructural deficit in
the region.
• Implementing the Gujaral doctrine in letter and spirit.
 BIMSTEC:
• It was formed as BIST-EC in 1997: Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka Thailand Economic
Cooperation.
• Its Secretariat is in Dhaka.
• It became BIMSTEC when Myanmar joined later in 1997.
• The aim was to avoid disturbance by Pak and include the growing economy of Thailand.
• In 2004, Nepal and Bhutan joined and the organization was named as Bay of Bengal
Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation.
• It is also referred to as the 5+ 2 grouping- 5 countries from south Asia and 2 countries from
Southeast Asia.

•
Importance of Bimstec:
Foreign policy
• The BIMSTEC membership achieves two very important foreign policies- Neighbourhood
first and Act East.
Geoeconomic:
• The membership consists of vibrant economies registered an average annual GDP growth
rate of about 3.4 to 7.4 % even during the 2008 sub-prime crisis.
Geostrategic:
• It can be a very prudent instrument for balancing China in the region.
Question: Can BIMSTEC be a replacement for SAARC?
The answer can be on the given lines:
• We can start with a brief description of both bodies.
Main body:
• Evidence of the shift of prominence from SAARC to BIMSTEC
• Shortcomings/Effects of the Shift
• BIMSTE charter mentions that it will be complementary to the existing organizations.

Conclusions/way Forwards for the questions on the immediate Indian neighborhood

must mention the Gujaral doctrine.
• The doctrine is a very effective mechanism for overcoming the big power-small power
mentality.

Mekong –Ganga Cooperation (MGC)(6:00 PM):

• It was founded in 2000 in Vientiane, Laos through the Vientiane declaration.
• India and Thailand were the main proponents.
• The original aim was the development of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the
region- CLMV ( Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam).
• Ganga and Mekong are considered civilizational rivers- great rivers whose banks major
civilizations flourished.
• The aim of MGC is to facilitate closer contact among the people inhabiting these two
civilizational rivers.
• 11 ministerial meetings have taken place with the last one being in 2021 in Cambodia.
• The MGC meetings are co-chaired alternatively every year between India, and the other five
Mekong countries.

Areas of cooperation (Scope):

• Tourism.
• Culture.
• Education.
• Transport & Communication
During the 10th MGC held in 2019 in Bangkok Thailand, three new areas of cooperation were
added-
• Science & Technology.
• Water Resources Management.
• Skill Development and Capacity Building.

•
India- Central Asian Republics:
• The Central Asia region (CA) comprises the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Uzbekistan is a double landlocked country.
 Importance of the region
• The region is known as the Wheat basket of the world, due to extensive stretches
of Steppes.
• Its location is such that Great Games between great powers have been fought on its soil.
• Presently it is an arena of “great game” played out between Russia, China, the USA, Turkey,
Iran, Europe, Pakistan, and India.
• They act as a gateway to Europe, East Asia, and West Asia.
• The geopolitical scholar Harold Mackinder referred to the region as the Heartland of
Eurasia, and whosoever will control the heartland will rule the world.
• It acts as a gateway to South & West Asia, China & Europe.

Economic importance(6:30 PM):

• Kazakhstan is the predominant power in the region and holds the world’s second-largest
natural reserves of Uranium.
• Uzbekistan- Reserves of Uranium and Natural Gas.
• Turkmenistan- It has the fourth largest natural gas reserves.
• Tajikistan- Huge hydropower potential.
• Kyrgystan- Gold and hydropower potential

Security Importance:
• The region potentially acts as a buffer to contain the fallout of fundamentalism.
• To insulate India from narco-terrorism and to forestall India’s encirclement by any
regional or outside power.
• Narco-Terrorism simply means the arrangement where the proceeds from the illegal
narcotics trade are used to fuel terrorism.
• The region’s importance has been accentuated after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan,
and the threat of the spread of narco-terrorism.
• The three central Asian republics sharing borders with Afghanistan- Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, agree with India on the need to have an inclusive government,
unhindered humanitarian trade, and preservation of rights of women, children, and
minorities in Afghanistan.
• CAR shares common foreign policy goals visa vis Afghanistan.
• Both India and CAR demand an inclusive government in Afghanistan, humanitarian
assistance for the Afghan people, and the preservation of the rights of women, children,
and minorities.
• China already encircles India in the Indian ocean.
• When combined with its growing presence in Central Asia, it compounds Indian concerns
about the potential of Chinese encirclement.
Why is India important to central Asia:
• To gain greater strategic maneuverability vis-a-vis traditional powers in the region- Russia,
and China.
• Cooperation vis-à-vis Afghanistan.
• CAR seeks to learn from the Indian experience how to insulate their youth from
radicalization.
• Considering the population and the fact that radicalized lone-wolf attacks have reached
the USA, Europe, and even Scandinavian countries, India has been remarkable in curbing
radical Islam.
 Evolution of the relations (7:02 PM):
Historical relations:
• India and Central Asia share significant cultural civilizational and historical linkages.
• Central Asia was located on the Silk Route.
• The Silk route in addition to goods served as an effective channel for thoughts, religion,
and philosophy.
• Buddhism spread through this route from India to Central Asia, while Sufism spread from
the region to India. Babur came from the Ferghana valley in Central Asia.

Soviet period:
• India shared close ties through music, movies, dance, and literature.
• Actor Raj Kapoor was very famous there.
Post-USSR split:
• After the disintegration of the USSR, India was expected to have good relations with the
CAR.
• But India at that time was faced with twin challenges of economic restructuring and
security challenges in the form of insurgency in the Northeast and militancy in Kashmir and
Punjab.
Internationally India prioritized:
• Relations with South East Asia (Look East Policy).
• Developing good relations with the single superpower USA.
• However in 1995, India launched the Look North Policy, but it was a non-starter due to Civil
War in Tajikistan.
• It restricted the Indian view of the region to a security perspective only.

Connect Central Asia policy:

• It was launched in 2012 and continues to be India’s official policy with the region.
It was launched because:
• Trade became an important component of India’s GDP, so India was looking for new areas
of pursuing trade and investment.
• To counter China; which had marked its presence in Central Asia from 1990 onwards.
In recent times:
• A major push came in 2015 when as part of his “octave diplomacy”, the Prime Minister
visited all the five republics in a single trip to the region.
• In 2019, India- Central Asia Dialogue Mechanism was established under which three
Foreign Minister-level dialogues have been held:
• 2019- held at Samarkand, Uzbekistan
• 2020- It was to be held in New Delhi, held virtually
• 2021 December- Held in New Delhi.
• The third dialogue emphasized the four C’s- Commerce, Capacity Development,
Connectivity, and Contacts.
• The first summit dialogue was held virtually by India with the President of the five CARs.
• It has led to the institutionalization of the relations.
• They have decided to hold the summits regularly, along with regular meetings of foreign,
trade, and cultural ministers.
• India- Central Asia Secretariat would be set up in New Delhi
Farkhour Air base Tajikistan :
• It was much of a medical service point during the civil war
 Challenges in India: Central Asia relations (7:28 PM):
Low volume of bilateral trade:
• India’s annual bilateral trade with the region stands at $ 2 billion.
• In comparison, India-Pakistan annual trade is around $ 5 billion.
• Chinese annual trade with CARs s at $40 billion, and $18 billion with Russia.
Reasons for less trade:
• Despite it being a land-locked region, India lacks over-land connectivity with the region.
• The shortest land route to it passes through hostile Pakistan and unstable Afghanistan.
• Thus, presently India’s trade with the region is conducted through China, even with whom
we don't share very cordial relations.
• India’s failure to develop infrastructure projects abroad to foster regional connectivity., for
example- Chabahar port in Iran, TAPI, INSTC, etc

TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) project:

• It seeks to deliver gas from Galkynysh Gas Field, Turkmenistan.
• It will pass through Herat in Afghanistan, with an extension to Nimruz, Kandahar.
• In Pakistan, it will pass through Quetta, Dera Ghazi Khan, and Multan.
• It will reach India at Fazilka, Punjab.
• It was earlier envisaged as an Iran -Pakistan-India (IPI) agreement.
• It was dropped after the USA's objections to the membership of Iran.
• It was the USA who suggested TAPI.

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) corridor:

• It will be from Jawahar Lal Nehru port to Bandar Abbas via the Caspian Sea to Moscow and
St Petersburg.
• It is 7200 kilometers long multimodal network of ships, rail, and road routes for the
transport of goods from India to Russia and Europe.
• Its operationalization is still incomplete.
• The original agreement was signed in 2000 in St Petersburg by Iran, Russia, and India.
• Since then 10 other countries have joined the agreement.
• Bulgaria has been included as an observer country.
• Two Baltic countries- Latvia and Estonia have expressed their intention to join the
agreement.
• This corridor reduces the distance by 40% and costs by 30%.
• It brings down the transit time from 40 days by more than half.
• In June 2021, the western corridor of INSTC was operationalized

•
China in Central Asia:
Pieces of evidence:
• China is one of the leading trade partners of the region with bilateral trade of around $40
billion.
• With the launch of BRI, China has overtaken Russia as the biggest investor in the region.
• Presently 20% of Chinese energy needs are met by CARs.
• Three of the five CARs share a border with China(Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan).
• India’s pursuit of institutionalization of relations with Central Asia (China’s immediate
neighborhood), prompted China to host a virtual meeting with the fiver CARs in 2020.
• C+ C5 Foreign Ministers meeting mechanism was established in 2019.
• In their recent 2022 summit, they announced the building of China- Central Asia
community with a shared future.
• Chinese Foreign Minister commented that China and Central Asia are closely
interdependent like “Lips and teeth” and share weal and woe.
• They have set a target of $70 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
• Cl15

China in the Central Asian Republic(05:07 PM)

• Trade imbalance:
• Trade is balanced in favour of China
• China's growing presence has raised concerns among the general public over the possible
land takeovers and ecological degradation by Chinese firms.
• The persecution of ethnic Kyrgyz in Chinese Xinjiang Province.
• Steps were taken by the Government of India:
• 1. Institutionalisation of the relations
• Through India-Central Asia Summits.
• India became a full member of SCO in 2017.
• India has supported Multiple options of connectivity with the region.
• In 2018, India joined this agreement.
• This agreement aims to create an international transport and transit corridor.
• The original signatories to the agreement:
• Uzbekistan
• Turkmenistan
• Iran
• Qatar and
• Oman
• In 2013, Qatar withdrew itself.
• In 2016, it entered into force, and in 2016 Pakistan and Kazakhstan joined the agreement.
•
• Shanghai Corporation Organisation(05:23 PM):
• Headquarter:
• Beijing
• It was established in 1996 as Shanghai-5.
• The founding members include:
• Russia
• China
• Kazakhstan
• Tajikistan
• Kyrgystan
• Tajikistan
• To Check the Uighur insurgency, Shanghai 5 was formed.
• The aim was the demilitarisation of the borders between China and the three CARs.
• In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the organisation and therefore the name was changed
from Shanghai 5 to SCO.
• In 2017, India and Pakistan were admitted as full members.
• Last year in their Dushanbe Summit, Iran was admitted as a full member.
• It will join the organisation once it completes the necessary formalities.
• In 2022, Belarus submitted an application to become a full member of the organisation.
• Its candidature will be considered in the upcoming Sameakand Summit in Uzbekistan in
September 2022.
• Expansion of SCO is taking place in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Its importance:
• Shows increasing influence of SCO in global politics
• Indicates that the principles of the SCO charter are widely accepted.
•
• Aim of the organisation:
• To fight the triple evil:
• Separatism
• extremism and
• Terrorism
• There are two permanent structures in SCO:
• a. Its secretariat
• b. RATS(Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure)- in Tashkent
• The working of SCO is underpinned by the Shanghai spirit.
• It emphasizes mutual trust, mutual benefit, Equality, and respect for cultural
diversity.
• Based on the Principles of non-alignment.
• West is critical of SCO since it looks at it as an initiative of China and Russia to
challenge Western Hegemony/ leadership in Central Asia.
• India however has justified its membership of SCO on the basis of the working principle
of non-alignment of the organisation.
• India believes that by joining SCO it has not entered into an anti-West alliance led by China
and Russia.
• SCO versus NATO(05:48 PM):
• SCO's secretary general has distinguished it as a cooperative organisation based on
the principles of non-alignment and not against any third country/party as against
NATO which was a defense pact.
• Russian and Mandarin are the official languages in SCO.
• The global profile of SCO:
• It represents around 42% of the world's population and 20% of the global GDP.
• Four of its member countries are nuclear powers.
• two member countries are permanent members of the UNSC.
• Challenges for India in SCO:
• Dominance of China in SCO:
• Presently SCO is China led closely followed by the Russian leadership
• In this organisation, India has to accept its role as the second Fidel with which India is
uncomfortable.
• Russia-China-Pakistan Axis:
• The growing closeness between Russia and China aggravates India's concerns with the
already existing China-Pakistan axis.
• Cooperation vis-a-vis terrorism through RATS:
• Definition of Terrorism:
• SCO defines terrorism as homegrown groups which threaten the existing political stability
by targetting the political regimes in the region While India defines it as cross-border
sponsored groups targetting India's security and territorial integrity,
• RATS gathers intelligence on terrorist organisations such as:
• EAST Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), etc operating in Central Asis while India is
concerned about groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba(LeT), Jaish-e- Mohammad(J-e-M),
Haqqani network.
• Except India all other members of SCO have endorsed China's BRI.
• Lack of overland connectivity with the region- Pakistan's strategic denial of overland
transit to Afghanistan and beyond is a challenge.
•
• Challenges for SCO:
• 1. India-Pakistan rivalry:
• Since SCO operates through consensus, India-Pakistan rivalry may impede its working as
is the case with SAARC.
• 2. Proliferation of other organisations in the region such as the Rusian Economic
Union, CSTO(Collective Security Treaty Organisation)
• Way Forward:
• Bolster connectivity with the region
• Constructively engage with Pakistan- India should mobilise an opinion in SCO to
constructively pressurise Pakistan to allow India overland connectivity with Afghanistan
and Central Asia.
• Leverage its soft power such as culture, Cuisine, and educational scholarships.
•
•
• Observer country to SCO:
• Belarus
• Iran

India and South-East Asia(06:20 PM)

• Evolution of India's relation with South-East Asia:
• ASEAN: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
• 1. Antiquity:
• Historical and civilisational ties with the region.
• Southern Indian regions engaged in vibrant trade relations with South-East Asia along
with trade, and there was the exchange of culture, religion(Buddhism, Hinduism),
language(Sanskrit), social customs(reverence for Brahmins), and epic narratives(such as
Ramayana).
• Also, they share a commonality of art and architecture, dance forms, and music.
• In fact, India's first PM Jawahar Lal Nehru in his classic "Discovery of India" referred to
this region as 'greater India'.
• Post-independence:
• During the cold war:
• The relations remain tepid
• Reasons:
• a. Bloc politics
• While India was the leader of NAM with a pronounced tilt towards the USSR, South-East
Asia was in the US camp.
• b. Inward looking economy of India and South-East Asia was just as backward,
diseased, and conflict-ridden as the Indian subcontinent itself.
• c. India's overland linkages to South-East Asia were blocked by post-colonial politics-
Hostile East Pakistan and Military rule in Myanmar.
• After the end of the cold war:
• PV Narasimha Rao's government launched the look East Policy with respect to this region
in 1992.
• Determinants of Look East Policy:
• a. Disintegration of USSR:
• India lost its most trusted ally, military, and economic partner.
• b. Adoption of new economic policy-
• Under it, India embarked upon economic liberalisation and thus sought new trade
partners in the vibrant economies of South-East Asia,
• c. Look East to look West with the rise of single super power, India sought to improve its
relations with it and since this region allied with the US, India sought to improve its
relations with South-East Asia.
• d. Failure of SAARC:
• It could not satisfy India's new economic ambitions under the export promotion
agenda.
• e. To counter China in its own Periphery
• Also, the USA was wary of China's growing economic and military might in the region.
• Thus, It supported India's outreach to South-East Asia.
• India offered the prospect of a democratic and non-threatening counterbalance to China.
• Since India's look, East policy was supported by economies of South-East Asia and the then
superpower, it is GoI's most successful foreign policy initiative since independence.
• Relations are aided by the shared colonial experience, and cultural affinities and despite
the estrangement of the cold war years, a striking lack of historical resentment between
the two countries.
•
• Look East policy and its component:
• a. Geographical stretch
• b. Sectoral scope
• c. Domestic element
• a. Geographical stretch:
• It is ASEAN centered.
• Indo-Pacific:
• Indian ocean+Pacific ocean
• Eastern shores of Africa to the Western Coast of the Americas.
• Economic cooperation
• Security cooperation including counter-terrorism operations.
• Assertive maritime diplomacy is the key distinguishing feature of the Act-East Policy.
• It also lays emphasis on cultural cooperation and fostering connectivity.
• Act East to North East:
• The focus would be on developing connectivity of the North-Eastern
Region with South-East Asia.
• India's relation with South-East Asia:
• India's bilateral relations:
• India-Myanmar
• India-Vietnam relations
• India's multilateral relations:
• India-ASEAN

India's Multilateral relations(07:20 PM):

• India-ASEAN:
• India's relation with ASEAN is the key pillar of India's FP.
• Key achievements of India-ASEAN relations:
• In 1992, India was admitted as a sectoral partner of ASEAN.
• 1995:
• India became a full dialogue partner.
• 2002:
• Summit level partner
• Summits Commence.
• 2012:
• India-ASEAN strategic partnership agreement.
• Economic integration:
• 2009, India-ASEAN FTA in goods was signed.
• In 2015, the India-ASEAN Free trade Area entered into force that is trade in goods, services
and investment.
• India in ASEAN-led multilateral fora:
• 1. ASEAN regional forum- It is the first multilateral security platform led by ASEAN in the
region.
• India is part of the ASEAN defence minister's meeting+
• In 2005, India became a founding member country of the East Asia Summit.
• EAS includes:
• All ASEAN Countries
• China
• Australia
• South Korea
• New Zealand
• USA
• Russia
• India's inclusion in EAS despite not being an East Asian country is a testimony of the
importance of India in the Asian balance of power as South East Asia views it.
• The USA became a member of EAS only in 2010.
•
• Critical evaluation of India-ASEAN relations:
• Presently there is a sense of disillusionment on both sides with the present state of the
relationship.
•
• Reasons:
• Despite Modi Government's act East policy to enhance India's strategic profile in South
East Asia, New Delhi's prime FP focus remains on South Asia and the Indian ocean Region.
• India's regional profile is no match to that of China which views South-East Asia as its
natural backyard.
• 2. India's economic engagement with ASEAN remains weak.
• 3. India privileges bilateral relations over multilateral ones.
• Thus, India's interest in ASEAN is lacklustre.
• India seeks strong friendships with countries like Myanmar and Vietnam while its
engagement with multilateral grouping is because of the associated global power
credentials.
• Thus, its substantive engagement with ASEAN especially in the present times is quite
limited.
• Several ASEAN countries are uncomfortable with the idea of the Indo-Pacific which has
been formulated primarily to contain China because of their deep economic engagement
with the Chinese economy.
• Thus, they are worried that their embrace of this concept would push them to choose sides
in the China-US rivalry.
•
• Steps taken:
• 1. India along with Japan and America are stepping up efforts to check ASEAN countries'
primary source of dependence on China which is for infrastructure aid.
• Thus, they have formed the Indo-Pacific business forum to promote infrastructure,
• 2. US has initiated the Indo-Pacific economic framework to set up global regulations on
economic exchanges as a counterbalance to China in RCEP.
• Japan, India and Australia have set up supply chain resilience initiatives.
• Such initiatives will check the temptations of China's chequebook diplomacy and ensure
rule of law in international politics.
•
•
 Way forward:
• Enhance India's trade and economic linkages:
• IT sector
• Completion of infrastructure projects
• Bolstering India's connectivity with the region:
• India-Maynmar-Thailand trilateral highway and Kaladan multi-modal project cargo
transport project.
• Use India's soft power through cultural linkages to balance China's hard power.

RCEP(07:52 PM)
• Proposed in 2011
• Cambodia summit of ASEAN, negotiations of RCEP began.
• It entered into force in January 2022 60 days after ratification by the member countries.
• It is an economic agreement between ASEAN and its five out of six FTA partners.

Cl16
RCEP(05:21 PM)
• The notes have been covered in the handout provided by the faculty.
• First-generation economic reforms take place at the national level.
• These reforms could be realized by legislation by the central government.
• While the Second Generation reforms are with respect to factors of production.

India-Myanmar Relations
• Panglong Agreement and 21st Century Panglong Conferences.
• Myanmar comprises Burma and the frontier regions.
• Structure of the Topic:
• Importance of Myanmar
• A brief history of Myanmar
• Phases in India- Myanmar Relations
• Recent Military coup
• What has been the Government of India's response
• what are the dilemmas in India's FP?
• Refugee crisis
• GoI's response with respect to the refugee crisis
• China in Myanmar
Importance of Myanmar(06:03 PM)
• 1. Connectivity and security of the North-East region:
• Myanmar is also referred to as India's frontier dilemma
• North-East Region insurgent group's Hit and Run operations
• Kaladan Multi-Modal Project:
• It connects Kolkata port with Sittwe port(sea link).
• Then Sittwe port is connected to the Kaladan river and then the road link
• 2. Gateway of South-East Asia:
• It is considered the land bridge to South-East Asia.
• Therefore, an important component of Act East Policy.
• 3. Important for sub-regional and inter-regional initiatives such as:
• BIMSTEC
• Mekong-Ganga Cooperation
• 4. Free-Movement Regime:
• Visa-free travel for the nationals of our country up to 16 km and for 14 days
• Brief History of Myanmar:
• Independence in 1948
• 1962- Military coup
• Internationally got isolated and became one of the poorest countries in the world.
• In 1988, 8888 uprisings took place which demanded democracy.
• In 1990, National League for Democracy came into power securing 80% of the seats.
• But the democratic leaders were put under house arrest and a military government was
established.
• Consequently in 2008, the military government in Myanmar brought a constitutional
amendment stating the aim of Myanmar is to “discipline flourishing democracy”.
• 2010:
• Myanmar conducted its first democratic elections.
• However, Suu Ki was under house arrest.
• Junta Proxy, Union Solidarity and Development Party came to power
• 1st February 2021, the Military conducted the coup, and the elected leaders of NLD and the
President were put under house arrest.
• The reason was fear of the military that NLD armed with an even bigger majority would
undertake Constitutional reforms that would take away the Junta's Privileged positions
in Myanmar's Polity.
• Tatmadaw was compelled to use force.
• Phases in India-Myanmar Relations:
• Phase 1:
• 1948-62
• Phase 2:
• 1962-1987
• Phase 3:
• 1987-2010
• Phase 4:
• 2010- 1st February 2021.
 China in Myanmar
• Importance of Myanmar to China
• How does China Prevail in Myanmar?
• China's relations with Myanmar in general and in the context of the recent coup.
• Importance of Myanmar to China:
• Economic interests:
• Resources and trade and investment opportunities
• CMEC(China Myanmar Economic Corridor)
• Second Coast by China-----> Overcome Malacca Dilemma
• Financial Assistance in terms of trade and investment
• Dam Projects:
• Mitsyone Dam project
• Lehpahdyong dam project
• Sino Myanmar Rail link

India-Vietnam Relations
• Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of diplomatic relations.
• Areas of cooperation
• Strategic and economic cooperation
• Strategic cooperation:
• Evidence of Strategic cooperation:
• India has strengthened strategic and defence cooperation with Vietnam.
• In 2007, both countries entered into a strategic partnership.
• 2016-Comprehensive strategic partnership
• 2022:
• Joined vision for defence cooperation
• 2022 MoU on mutual logistics support
• Hundred Million US dollars,
• A defence line of credit has been implemented and another 500 million US dollar line of
credit has been finalised to enhance Vietnam's defence capability.
• Cooperation vis-a-vis Vietnam's military training and assisting its navy strike
capabilities.
• Vietnam is exploring the possibility of acquiring India-manufactured surveillance
equipment, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
•
• India-Vietnam's Maritime Cooperation:
• Their shared strategic concerns in the maritime sphere:
• a.Vis-a-vis energy security
• Open and secure Sea lanes of communication with respect to the South China Sea.
• India is essentially a maritime nation because India's external trade(over 90% by
volume and 70% by value) is by Sea.
• c. Their desire for strategic autonomy in FP.
• d. Both have territorial disputes with China and shared apprehensions about it.
• e. Vietnam is of great strategic significance because of its position it extends its control of
the South China Sea(SCS- is comparable to the Mediterranean Sea of the Atlantic Ocean).
• f. India's 55% of its trade with the Indo-PAcific passes through it.
•
• There are four key motivations behind India's growing Maritime Cooperation with
Vietnam.
• 1. India's aspirations to Counter an assertive China by strengthening Vietnam's military
power.
• 2. To increase India's trade with East and South-East Asian Countries.
• India has begun to recognise the importance of SLoCs beyond its geographical
proximity.
• 3. India's desire to intensify its presence to track potential developments in the
maritime domain that could affect its national interest.
• 4. Indian navy underlines the importance of forwarding maritime presence and naval
partnerships.
• They would be critical to deter potential adversaries
• Evidence:
• Joint Naval Exercises,
• Ship visits
• Coast guard cooperation and training and
• Capacity building
• Conclusion:
• With India's renewed interests in the maritime domain, freedom of navigation, peaceful
resolution of disputes and respect for international laws- have become salient features
of India's approach in the Indo-Pacific.
• India today is willing to take a principled stand on territorial disputes for possible
stability of the Indo-Pacific.
• Such India's approach closely aligns with that of Vietnam on the management of South
China Sea disputes.
• Thus, Vibrant maritime and defence cooperation with Vietnam.

Cl17
India- China Relations
• Structure - evolution- recent phase: tumultuous phase, bilateral issue-border issues,
Brahmputra issue, BRI and its comparison with the initiative of G7
• China is a revisionist state [it would like to change the global hierarchy of the world order],
Irredentist nature [want to expand the territory, expansionist foreign policy, Mao Zedong
gave the policy of PALM and FIVE FINGERS]
• Sardar Patel said- India should adopt a realist foreign policy [unsettled borders+ irredentist
nature of china]==> one school of thought
• Ravindra Nath Tagore + JL Nehru- if war happens, it would divert the economic resources
to the wars, so avoid war, the vision of the "Asian Century" was envisioned by the leaders,
and the Asian century can not be realized if two Asian giants are at loggerhead
===> second school of thought [idelaistic school of thought]===> India followed the policy
of appeasement to sideline the eventuality of war or to avoid war

Three phases of India- china's relation

• 1947/48-1962==> Policy of Appeasement ===> Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai slogan was given
===> due representation of PRC in UNSC, Korean conflict [india made sure that the USA
would name china as the aggressor in Korean conflict], 1954- India accepted the Tibet as
part of china, but India did not negotiate, India conclude the PANCHSHEEL agreement also,
 India was the first non-communist country to recognize the communist china, Indian
government adopts the FORWARD POLICY in counter to the infrastructure development by
china, this was referred as POLICY OF COMPELLENCE [to compel the other country to take
a back step]
• 1962- 1988==> Phase of COLD PEACE, china identifies Pakistan as a proxy against India,
china shares conventional weapons with Pakistan, agreement on nuclear cooperation
[pakisatn- china all-weather friendship started], no political and diplomatic exchange
between India and China, Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited China, Janta party came to power
and adopted SEQUENTIAL POLICY [all issues were made contingent to the India-china
border issue], Rajiv Gandhi changed the sequential policy to SIMULTANEOUS
APPROACH [despite the border issues, India can engage with china on other issues,
bilateral issues will not be a prisoner to the border issues], Rajiv Gandhi visited the china.
Mao Zedong was replaced by Deng Xiaoping and he adopted the policy of PEACEFUL
RISE, 8 rounds of dialogue between army commanders[1981-1988], here china offered
the PACKAGE DEAL {china asked India to recognize the Aksai Chin as part of china and
china will recognize the Arunachal Pradesh as part of india} - but India did not accept this
and said that India will not settle the border in PIECEMEAL approach (i.e. in parts) but in a
COMPREHENSIVE MANNER [india and china were on same power level]. clashes also
occurred during this phase in Sumdorong Chu Valley in 1986
• 1988 onwards- Rajiv Gandhi already set the tone of the simultaneous approach [other
bilateral issues will not become the prisoner of the border dispute ]
• 1993 ==> Agreement on peace and tranquility along the LAC
• 1996==> signing of a confidence-building measure in the military field along the LAC
• 2003==>indian economy was performing well + Global recognition of India's rise [India-
USA nuclear deal], it was a perception that India will overtake china in comprehensive
national power. so china unilaterally agreed about the Sikkim [sikkim is an integral part of
india]
• 2003==> India-China started the special representative mechanism
• 2005- Guiding principles and political parameters to resolve the border issues- 3 stage
• 1). Fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable
• 2). Geographically features will be used to identify the borders between the two countries
[himalayas acting as a natural barrier]
• 3). People residing in the disputed areas, their consent will be taken, [Arunachal Pradesh
will be an integral part of india]
• 2008==> the relationship became very very tumultuous, the simultaneous existence
of competition and cooperation.

Reason for such relation i.e competition and cooperation (17:24:00)

• Factors at the global level
• Global financial crisis 2007-08
• Decline of the west and the rise of the east, the west became inward-looking, and they
adopted a protectionist approach, the west did not have the capacity nor the willingness to
the sustenance of the global order, and this global responsibility was thrust on India and
china. It made it essential the discussion and cooperation to sustain the existing global
order
• Change in south Asia- china came out with a south Asian policy, and china wanted to
increase its presence in the periphery [2005- a string of pearls theory, 2013- BRI policy]
•
• Factors at the bilateral level
• It led to Nadir [lowest] in the relation
• It also led to misperception/misunderstanding
• China changing or reorienting its foreign policy in the context of the Global financial crisis
• 2013==> Xi Jinping became the President, changeD the foreign policy, and china started to
display its strength, china came up with the BRI [to revive the ancient silk route+
infrastructure development + connectivity] for the development of trade. they did not take
into consideration the impact on India [CPEC- Xinjiang province connecting with sea], India
perceived it as a threat to the sovereignty
• Misperception born out because of the strong leaders occupying the power [Xi Jinping
wanted to end the century of humiliation and become a global hegemon by 2049+ Indian
PM also claimed to increase the hard power, a strong push to the Sino-Indian relation but
also strengthened the relationship with the USA and neighborhood first policy ]
• 2017==> Doklam standoff
• China increased its surveillance in the Indian Ocean region
• India's support for the Indo-Pacific strategy was perceived by china as its containment
policy by the USA

Competition and Cooperation (17:45:00)

• Competition
• India wanted to become a full member of the NSG (nuclear suppliers group), but its entry
was opposed by China.
• In UNSC- it opposed India's claim
• China vetoed the naming of Masood Azhar as a global terrorist
• Doklam standoff==> military eyeball to eyeball
• In the Indian Ocean region==> surveillance, Chinese warships docked in Srilanka and
Maldives
• China made the largest arms deal with china [diesel electric submarines] {Pakistan is the
largest importer of arms from china, and Bangladesh is the second largest importer of arms
}
• Indo-pacific vision
• Cooperation
• SCO, RIC, BRICS cooperation
• Informal summits {Wuhan spirit { 'china+ India+1' framework i.e in the third country},
Mamallapuram summit}
• Climate change negotiation
• India-china think tank forum, India- china high-level forum
• China agreed with India to finalize the grey list of FATF
• WTO- Agricultural and fisheries subsidies
Thaw in the relation (17:58:00)
• Two armies clashed at Galwan valley
• During the COVID Crisis China was focused on the development of the infrastructure in the
border areas.

How to deal with china? (18:12:00)

• Reducing the economic dependence on china
• On border dispute ==> Business as usual approach will not be acceptable [Belligerant
military adventurism approach will not be tolerated]
• Engage with china whenever possible and contain china whenever necessary
• External as well as internal balancing of china
• External balancing ==> cooperating with like-minded counties, QUAD, military exercises,
Logistic exchange agreement with France, Japan, USA, and SCRI [supply chain resilience
initiative] with Japan & Australia
• Internal balancing ===> Develop own capabilities, conducting high altitude exercises, IFC
in gurugram defense modernization

Bilateral Issues (18:19:00)

Dams on the river Brahmaputra
• River Brahmaputra is referred to as Yarlung-Tsangpo in Tibet, it enters India as the Siang
river after a sharp hair-pin turn and when it adjoins the Lohit and Dibang river it becomes
the Brahmaputra river
• China is an upper riparian country and therefore enjoys the advantages of harnessing,
storing, and diverting the river water to impact the flow of the river downstream. therefore,
the building of the dams on the river Brahmaputra is a cause of concern for India.
• Previously china has built small dams in the middle and upper reaches of the river. in 2010
it began with such constructions and by 2015 china operationalized its hydropower project
at Zangmu while three other dams at Dagu, Jiexu, and Jiacha are being developed. with
respect to it, India had expressed concerns.
• But they are unlikely to greatly impact the quantity or the volume of the Brahmaputra's
flow in India
• Reasons:-
• 1). They are Run- of the river projects
• 2). The Brahmaputra is not entirely dependent on upstream flows with an estimated 35%
of its basins in India
• 3). Though a perennial river, only about 18 % of the Brahmaputra's water is contributed by
glacial melt in Tibet. most of its water is contributed by rainfall in the Indian territory
• The 14th five-year plan [2021-2025] announced plans for building dams on the lower
reaches among priority energy projects to be undertaken
• The dam is to be built on the river in Medong county where it drops by 2000 meters before
turning sharply to flow into Arunachal Pradesh. it would help generate up to 60 GWs of
power, three times that of china's three gorges dam on the Yangtze river.
• It will help achieve a carbon emission peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality of the
Chinese economy by 2060. it will allow for the development of Tibet.

Concerns of India (18:48:00)

Reasons
• Because of its location across the border from Arunachal Pradesh
• Though china claims it to be a Run-of river project, experts say it could reduce the flow of
water downstream, especially during the dry season.
• Water as a weapon- being an upper riparian state, China has the advantage of significantly
altering the flow rate of the water during the times of the standoff between the two
countries.
• During the Doklam standoff in 2017, china stopped sharing hydrological data despite the
agreement between the two countries.
• India worries that the sudden release of water during the monsoons could be disastrous for
the already uninundated state of Assam.
• Seismological and ecological impact- the Himalayan ecosystem is an ecologically sensitive
zone with endemic flora and fauna
Response of GoI 18:55:00
• India has urged China to be mindful of not harming the interests of the downstream states.
• India is considering building a 10 GW hydroelectric power project in the Dibang valley in
Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate the adverse impacts of the Chinese dam.

Way Forward
• India should push for a comprehensive river water treaty for the Brahmaputra river- in the
context of china's dam building, lack of non-monsoonal data, and interruption in data
sharing. however, the impending border disputes are a hurdle for any such treaty.
• Pending such a comprehensive treaty India must use available technological resources,
satellite imagery, etc to monitor the river flow.
• India can also be the core riparian Bangladesh which will strengthen India's position.
Note:- Existing river water cooperation between India and china
• They have a bilateral MoU under which china shares hydrological data on rivers
Brahmaputra and Sutlej during the flood seasons[15th May to 15th october]

Border Disputes (
• Western sector===> Aksai Chin+ shaksgam valley
• Middle sector ===> pockets of himachal pradesh and Uttarakhand
• Eastern sector===> Arunachal Pradesh.
• Shimla Accord 1914 ===> to resolve the issue of Arunachal pradesh==> British India and the
government of Tibet signed the agreement ==> Arunachal Pradesh and Tawang became
parts of British India. china issues stapled visa to Arunachal Pradesh
• Importance of Arunachal Pradesh ==> hydro electric potential+ only fertile plain in the
Tibet region.
• Boundary in the western sector - Britishers tried to settle the borders between India and
china in the context of an expansive Russia. they wanted to consolidate the boundary of
British India and create buffer zones.
• Buffer zones==> Sikkim and Bhutan were protectorates of British India and in Nepal, there
was stationed a special representative of British India
• China lays claim on both Aksai chin and Arunachal Pradesh as part of outer Tibet.
• British India tried to settle the borders of the western sector by proposing maps
• a). Johnson line- Aksai chin, under it, was to be part of India
• b). Mcdonald line- Aksai chin was to be part of china
• Britishers were open to accepting either of the maps, however, china never responded
• Since china did not respond and India considers Aksai Chin to be an extension of the
Ladakh plateau, incorporated it as Indian territory but in the 1962 war china occupied it
• Why is the Aksai chin important for China?
• It provides an all-weather route connecting to two restive provinces - Tibet and Xinjiang.
• Since the 1962 war, the LAC [line of actual control] is the de-facto border between the two
countries
• June 2020==> show Chinese military aggression against India in Ladakh
•
• Previous such incidences of border skirmishes
• 2013 at Depsang and 2014 at Chumar, However, these incidences were different from the
2020 border clashes.
• In Depsang and chumar the army patrols of the two countries had accidentally come face
to face while conducting normal patrolling activities but in Galwan, the PLA came in large
numbers with tens of thousands of soldiers, and brought arms and ammunition in large
numbers including tanks and artilleries also, they engaged with the Indian army at several
different locations in Ladakh.
• Thus, this time Chinese aggression was pre-mediated.
• In Galwan, hand- to hand combat took place between the soldiers of the two armies. 20
Indian soldiers and unspecified numbers of Chinese soldiers lost their lives
• Since the current aggression was in violation of all the existing border agreements between
the two countries, it has resulted in an extremely adverse public opinion in India against
China.
• The current dispute is yet not comprehensively resolved with military buildup on either
side of the border continuing.
•
• Cl18
Probable Reasons for Chinese incursions along the LAC(05:28 PM)
• Growing closeness between India and US.
• India had changed the status quo in J and K by abrogation of Article 370 and creation of
two UTs.
• In this context, China wanted to clearly indicate what it considers its own territories or its
own borders.
• To divert public opinion in China from Beijing's criticism of the handling of the COVID-19
pandemic.
• China was concerned by India's infrastructure building activities in the border area.
• The actual reason for China undertaking such incursions is impossible to confirm given the
opaque decision-making in Beijing.
• However, the probable cause is a mix of these reasons.
• The incursion was meant to send signals to India(05:33 PM):
• Tactically, China was indicating the huge asymmetry between its and India's
comprehensive national power.
• As a consequence of which it was showing that it can unilaterally decide and define its
borders with India.
• Strategically, it indicated that it is the Asian hegemony and India should know its place in
the power hierarchy of the continent.
• Response of GoI:
• India mirrored the Chinese military build-up on the border- clearly indicating that it does
not accept any unilateral changes to LAC.
• India made it clear that it will reply to any such aggression through its own show of force.
• It is also necessary to replicate these messages through policy actions.
• China is keen to ensure that the economic relations between the two countries are not
hampered as China makes approximately 50 Billion dollars in trade surplus with India.
• China's trade policy is based on mercantilism and consequently it seeks the rest of the
relation to continue as usual while it undertakes military aggression on the ground.
• Government of India stand:
• India has reiterated that relations cannot go back to normal as long as the border stand-off
continues only after full disengagement and de-escalation of troops on either side that the
relations can return to normalcy.
• India has demanded to restore the status quo ante that prior to the border skirmishes.
• Consequently, it has undertaken the following policy actions to indicate that business as
usual cannot be the approach while peace is violated along the borders.
• Actions are taken by the Government:
• Banned several Chinese apps on national security grounds.
• Such actions by GoI have been replicated even by other governments such as the US
banning the Chinese tik tok app.
• Government has ensured that the Chinese firms do not win competitive bidding
procedures in public procurement.
• FDI from China can enter India only through the government route; the automatic route is
no longer open for Chinese investments
• Indian telecom operators have been advised to be careful in utlising Chinese equipment.
• GoI is cooperating with other countries against China:
• Planning to undertake Yuddh Abhiyaas exercise in the high altitudes of Auli
in Uttarakhand.
• In October 2020, India has invited Australia to participate in the next expedition of Malabar
Naval exercises off the coast of India.
• The entire Indo-Pacific has received a boost with an enunciation of the Policy by Germany
and the appointment of an ambassador for Indo-Pacific by France.
• It is the context of containment of China's defense that has emerged as a key pillar of
India-US relations.
• 2+2 meeting between the foreign and defense ministers has given an immeasurable boost
to the bilateral ties and India has concluded all four foundational agreements with the US.
• India-Japan- Australia has formed a supply chain resilience initiative.
• India and Australia seek to cooperate on critical minerals
• (* Foreign policy goal of India- Multipolar world with Multipolar Asia at its core)
• What India can do?:
• India can keep out Chinese firms such as Huawei out of 5G trials and 5G rollout.
• Since Huwaei has already been banned by the US, Australia, UK, and others
• If it is also kept out of Indian markets, it will be a huge setback for it.
• It was a huge economic asymmetry, that resulted in a large gap in the comprehensive
national power of India and China, which in turn encouraged it to commit military
aggression against India.
• To curb this gap, India will have to increase the share of manufacturing in its GDP.
• For it the government schemes like Atman Nirbhar Bharat or Make in India is important.
• For instance, API(India imports 70% of it from China but previously before predatory
pricing and other such policies by China, India used to domestically produce their APIs)
which is critical for generic drugs.
• India should give a push to API production which is critical for Generic medicines.
• With a more level playing field for Indian manufacturers, there can be a revival of this
sector in India.
• Indian economy should register a decent annual growth rate of about 7 to 8 % per
annum if it were to become a major global power.
• Encourage domestic production of at least some of the arms and armaments necessary for
India's security.
• No country can become a major power by importing all the defense requirements of its
armed forces.
• India should join the blue dot network.
• Institutionalise the four-nation Malabar Naval exercise as an annual event held
alternatively off the coast of Japan and India.
• The general position of GoI with respect to a border dispute with China.
• India wants the earliest resolution and settlement of the border disputes.
• Stand of China:
• China calls them "Complex leftovers of history" which would take time before they are
finally settled.
BRI(06:25 PM)
• The notes will be provided through the handout.

Taiwan issue(07:11 PM)

• One China Principle:
• It insists that both Taiwan and mainland China are an inalienable part of a single China.
• Government of the PRC is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China.
• Thus, Taiwan is an integral part of Chinese territory.
• This principle is the foundation stone of PRC's Taiwan policy.
• One China Policy:
• It is based on one China Principle.
• It means that Countries seeking diplomatic relations with PRC must end their diplomatic
and political relations with RoC and vice-versa.
• It has cast Taiwan into a diplomatic wilderness.
• It is not recognised as an independent country by most of the countries of the world and
even the UN.
• However, the Chinese government has agreed to broad economic and cultural space for
the Taiwanese people.
• It is evident in Taiwan's membership as Chinese Taipei in aiding the Asian Development
Bank, APEC, and WTO.
• One Country, two systems:
• Under it, Beijing grants semi-autonomous status to formerly colonised territories in
exchange for recognition of the existence of only one China.
• Presently Hong Kong and Macau, former British and Portuguese colonies respectively live
under it; China aspires to include Taiwan in the future under it.
• Hong Kong and Macau's autonomy is safeguarded under the basic law which is valid for
fifty years since their formulation.
• Hong Kong was acquired by China from Britain in 1997 and therefore the basic law will
expire in 2047 while Macau was acquired in 1999 and the basic law expired in 2049.
• There is uncertainty as to their subsequent status after the expiry of the basic law.
• Under one China, two systems, both the former colonies can have different political and
economic policies and systems from that of mainland China provided they accept being
part of the PRC.
• One China two systems policy was the brainchild of Deng Xiaoping to unify Taiwan with
the PRC.

The recent crisis(07:36 PM)

• Reason:
• The US house speaker Nancy Pelosi'svisit to Taiwan in August 2022.
• It is the highest level visit from the US to Taiwan since 1997.
• While the Biden administration has referred to the visit as a personal initiative of Pelosi,
China considers it to be a political visit because as the speaker she is second in line to
become the President after the Vice President.
• Also, white contested that since she was representative of the different branches of the
government(Legislature, it could not intervene).
• However, China rejects the argument saying that the US cannot have multiple foreign
policies across the different branches of the government.
• Thus, China considers Pelosi's 'political visit to be in violation of the joint communique of
1979 that established diplomatic relations between the US and China.
• Under it, the US recognised the government of the PRC as the sole guardian of China
under one China Policy,
•
• How has China responded?:
• By undertaking:
• Military drills:
• Unprecedented live military drills under which Chinese warships and aircraft crossed the
median line of the Taiwan Strait;
• fired conventional missiles over the island into the waters on its East.
• It effectively enforced a blockade of Taiwan.
• The drills aimed at establishing a new normal in cross-strait relations.
• Economic measures:
• Suspension of a small portion of bilateral trade.
• The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits Washington to provide Taiwan with the
means to defend itself.
• US arms sale to Taiwan is one of the thorniest issues in US-China relations as the such US
has reiterated its longstanding approach of 'strategic ambiguity' as the such US has come
out in support of Taiwan in case of military conflict between the two.
• the US presently opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side.
• Reaction of India:
• India has maintained 'steadied silence' on the issue.
• Reason:
• It does not wish to cause controversy with China at a sensitive time in their border relations
nor does India wish to claim allegiance to the One China Policy,
• Stand of Taiwan:
• Taiwan under Democratic Progressive Party seeks the status quo.
• It along with KMT has so far abstained from declaring outright independence since it is
seen as a redline by Beijing.
• That is such as declaration would lead to a military attack by China on Taiwan.
• DPP under the current President has rejected the "1992 consensus".
•
• 1992 Consensus:
• It was an agreement between China and KMT on the existence of only one China.
• Beijing considers this consensus as the basis of all cross-strait negotiations.
• The KMT party itself rejected the consensus in the 2020 elections when President Xi
equated it with one China two systems.
• The people of Taiwan(23 million), despite close familial ties with the mainland do not
support the idea of unification.
• Resolving cross-strait differences requires the two sides to engage in dialogue on the basis
of parity.
• China's official white paper on Taiwan:
• It declares that it is under no obligation to commit itself to not use force.
• It clarifies that the force is not directed against the Taiwanese people but against the
scheme to create independent Taiwan and against foreign forces interfering in its
reunification.
• Resort to force would only be the last choice made under compelling circumstances

Cl19
India- Latin America (LA) & Caribean (LAC) Countries - 5:14 PM
• Discussed list of countries comprising North & South America and Latin America.
• Caribean island:
• Greater Antilles: Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
• Lesser Antilles: Saint Lucia, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago (Indian diaspora lives here, so
important for India)
• Important Organization:
• Mercosur: (formed of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay)
• India has a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with Mercursor.
• CELAC- Community of Latin America and Caribbean states
• It is a regional bloc of 33 Latin American and Caribbean states.
• It was formed at the Unity Summit 2010.
• Andean Community: The Andean Community is a customs union comprising the South
American countries of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
• Pacific Alliance: The Pacific Alliance is a Latin American trade bloc, formed by — Chile,
Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, all border the Pacific Ocean.
• India is an observer and seeks full membership in the Pacific alliance.

India and LAC - 5:33 PM

• Importance of LAC:
• Trade and investment- Source of raw material for India and market for value-added
goods (export automobile and components)
• Energy security- Imports 15% of energy resources from LA like Venezuela, and Mexico.
• Strategic importance- Alternative to politically unstable West Asia.
• Alternative from OPEC countries.
• Climate change cooperation- Many country parts of the International Solar Alliance,
• Lithium Triangle- Highest reserves of Lithium
• Food security- vast tracts of fertile land
• Geo-political importance of the region
• Evolution of India-LAC relation
• Tipid and indifferent
• Referred to as the forgotten continent.
• Relation suffered from the out-of-site and out-of-mind syndrome.
• During the cold war:
• Cold war politics
• India was a closed economy
• Never seek energy needs
• These countries were politically unstable and weak
• Post cold war:
• Pursuit of relation with superpower, USA
• Flag following trade
• Greater emphasis- first outreach summit of CELAC held in New Delhi.
• In 2011 the inter- American development bank published a report they identified India as
the next big thing for Latin America.

China in LAC- 6:10 PM

• Replaced EU to become the 2nd largest export to LA.
• China wants to counter the US in LAC.
• Built relations with elite-level wealth creation.
• There is resentment against China's investment.
• Challenges for India
• Political instability
• Distance and language
• lack of diplomatic presence (only in 15 LAC out of 33)
• High-level political priority is not given to this region
• Lack of media attention
• Lack of uniform approach towards the region and countries
• Way forward
• Built up connectivity
• Promotion of shipping industries in India
• Promote Latin American studies in India
• Diplomatic presence in all the countries
• Coming out with policy on Latin America
• More high-level visits
• Culture as a tool- Yoga day

African Continent- 6:43 PM

• The Horn of Africa aka Somali Penisula- Somali, Djibouti, Eretria, Ethiopia
• East Africa Community - South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania
• HQ- Arusha, Tanzania
• Customs Union
• Common market
• East of African monetary Union by 2023.
• Also, the ultimate aim is to form a political federation
• Maghreb region- Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and Morrocco
• Tunisia is the birthplace of the Arab spring.
• African Union- It is the pan-continental organization of Africa comprising 55 member
countries.
• They have an African continental FTA, the aim is to create a singular continental market
and pave the way for the establishment of the African customs Union.
• It is one of the flagship projects of Agenda 2063 - The Africa we want.
• HQ- Accra, Ghana
• It entered into effect in May 2019.
India-Africa relations-
• Importance:
• Geo-economic
• It is home to 6th of the world's fastest-growing economies, Ethiopic, Djoubiti, Senegal,
Tanzania, and Cote'd ivory.
• African continental FTA will raise India - Africa trade by 52% and create one of the largest
space.
• Geo-strategic
• The threat of China, piracy, terror groups in sub-Saharan Africa or the Sahel, Bokoharam in
Nigeria, ISIS.
• Geo-political- UNSC permanent seat, NAM.
•
• Evolution
• First phase (1950-60s) - Supported their cause of freedom, Dilemma with China.
• Second phase (1970-80) - UN peacekeeping operations by India, Multilateral platforms
like UNGA, NAM, G-77.
• Third phase (1990-today-)- Attention to least developed countries, China is emerging in
Africa as a major player.
• Recent Phase- Institutionalised relations with Africa, IAFS takes place in 2008, Fourth IAFS
scheduled in 2020 did not take place.
• Emerged as 3rd largest trading partner in Africa, we have a duty-free tariff preference
scheme, extensive market access to the Indian market, etc.
• Development projects in Ghana, sugar factories in Ethiopia, technological parks in
Mozambique and Swaziland, dams in Sudan and Rwanda
• India is the fifth largest investor in Africa.
• 10 guiding principles of India - Africa Policy
• We have a strong diplomatic presence in the case of Africa, India is opening 18 new
Ambassies totaling 47 out of 55 countries.
• Political engagement- All the African countries have been visited.
• Indian states are also directly engaging with African countries like South Africa is engaging
with Kerala for learning culture.

China in Africa- 7:31 PM

• Forum of China African engagement
• Largest trade partner of Africa
• Extensive investments
• Comparative advantages
• Building Mombasa - Nairobi railway line
• Port in Tanzania- Bagamayo port
• Defense cooperation- China-Africa defense and security forum 2018, export hardware and
software, weapons
• Believe in state-to-state relations and believe in gaining influence.
• India believes-Asia-Africa growth corridor, connectivity through the sea, digital
connectivity, air connectivity, Tele-medicine- E-Arogya Bharti and e-vidya Bharti, defense
cooperation, joint patrolling, etc.
• Comparative Advantage for India- Indian Ocean acted as a bridge between India-Africa,
India enjoys a lot of soft power, developmental assistance, scholarship to students, UN
peacekeeping, and a Large diaspora, that predates Britishers in India.
• Challenges:
• Racial attacks on Africans led to trouble in relations.
• Selective engagement with diaspora.
• Issues with project delivery.

Cl20

India-Russia relations-
• Special nature of the relation:
• India-Russia relations are historically deep and multi-dimensional.
• It is a time-tested relationship without any hidden agenda
• In fact, the two countries have a genuine interest in each other's rise.
• India-Russia was among the first countries in the world to have established the practice of
annual bilateral summits in 2000.
• The 21st summit between India and Russia was held in December 2021 in New Delhi
despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The 2+2 dialogue mechanism was inaugurated during it.
•
• A brief timeline of milestones in the bilateral relationship:
• 1971- Both the countries signed a peace friendship and cooperation treaty (India & Soviet
Union signed).
• 2000- India signed its first strategic partnership agreement with Russia.
• 2010- Relations were elevated to special and privileged partnerships.
• Presently they are said to have special and privileged strategic partnerships.
• In the wake of Russia's special military operation on Ukraine, India has been soft on
Russia: Evidences
• India since February has abstained from UN resolutions critical of Russia.
• India has refused to join the International community in imposing economic sanctions
against Moscow.
• Rather than cutting its oil imports from Russia, India has in fact increased its oil purchases
at a discounted price to Russia.
• 1. So as to hedge against global oil inflation.
• 2. India's oil import from Russia which was less than 1% before the war has increased to
12% of India's total oil imports.
• 3. Russia is the third largest oil exporter to India.
• 4. India is the second largest oil export market for Russia today after China.
• Indian army has participated in the Russia-led Vostok exercise despite the ongoing Russia-
Ukraine war.
• Indian PM held bilateral meetings with President Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit
in Samarkand.
• PM Modi virtually addressed the Eastern economic forum which has been established to
develop Russia's far east.
• He expressed India's readiness to expand trade, connectivity, and investment in Russia.
 Reasons why India took a soft stand- 6:11 PM
• Moscow is a strategic partner and New Delhi relies on Moscow to Veto any adverse UNSC
resolution on Kashmir.
• They have used such Veto powers six times in the past to protect India.
• Since the abrogation of Article 370, given the recent tension over Kashmir New Delhi would
want Moscow on its side.
• Defense ties:
• Despite defense diversification by India, India's 60% to 70% conventional arsenal is of
Soviet/Russian make.
• India-Russia defense relations are unique whereby they have moved beyond the traditional
buyer/seller relation and presently include cooperation such as technology transfer, joint
development, and marketing of defense equipment.
• They have co-produced the Brahmos missile which can be launched from air, water, and
land.
• Russia is the only country to lease out nuclear-powered attack submarines to India.
• In any case, Russia provides high-technology weaponry to India at significantly lower
prices than western suppliers.
• To check the development of Russia - the China axis.
• India fears that the western actions will push Russia further into China's military and
economic orbit.
• India seeks Russian support or neutrality in its long-standing border dispute with China.
• India has imported weapons from Russia during the military build-up in Eastern Ladakh.
• Civil nuclear energy cooperation:
• After the India-US civil nuclear agreement in 2008 which ended nuclear apartheid against
India and allowed India to participate in normal civilian nuclear commerce.
• Russia has built a nuclear power plant in India.
• Unlike the west because of their concerns regarding the nuclear liability law of India which
hold manufacturers of nuclear plant liable in case of an accident, Russia has been
forthcoming with respect to building nuclear power plants in India.
• The Russian government has assumed the necessary liability in such a case.

Impact of a such stand on India: 6: 31 PM

• Reset ties with China- China over the years has been varying in New Delhi's closeness to
the US and it's being part of the US Indo-Pacific vision.
• China has often decried QUAD as a containment mechanism for China.
• See in this context Beijing's aggression along the India-China border is a part of its strategy
to keep India tied up in border disputes and not being able to play a proactive regional
role.
• But if Beijing sees India standing up to the pressure of the US and the West, it may seek to
reset ties with India.
• India's soft stand on Russia and emphasis on special relations with Russia are critical to
preventing the Russia-China alliance from emerging.
• While the West is important to the maritime balancing of China through the policy of Indo-
Pacific, Russia along with Iran are important to India for the continental containment of
China.
• While the USA initially pressurized India to sanction Russia in the context of the ongoing
war, it has finally recognized distinct relations between the two countries.
• USA secretary of state recently noted India's relationship with Russia has developed over
the decade when the US was not able to be a partner to India.
• He suggested that Washington was now ready to be that partner.
• In recent past India had resisted the threats of sanctions under CAATSA by finalizing the
deal for the S-400 anti-missile system from Russia.
• This bolsters India's image as an important global player able to resist international
pressure while upholding its national interest through the pursuit of strategic autonomy.

Challenges- 7:01 PM
• 1. China factor:
• Under political disagreement over China-
• For Russia, China has become its go-to all-around strategic partner because of the West's
isolation of Moscow.
• But for India China represents the primary threat that necessitated to development of
closer partnerships with the US and the West.
• While for Russia and China countering the US is central to it.
• Growing military engagement between Russia and China-
• Russia's sale of advanced weaponry and major defense systems such as Kilo-class
submarines and SU-35 fighter jets to China would further aggravate the military imbalance
between India and China.
• It is a source of concern for India.
• Consequence:
• It has impacted the momentum of India-Russia relations such that their 20th annual
bilateral summit was completely canceled (not even held virtually) because of Russia's
reservations about India joining QUAD and becoming a part of the Indo-pacific initiative.
• Way forward:
• Rather than allowing a third country to impact bilateral ties between the traditional
partners, India should communicate with Russia about its red lines with respect to the
Russia-China partnership.
• Independent sovereign nations are free to conduct their bilateral relations with any foreign
country of their choice.
• India-Russia-China should cooperate in areas of common interest such as instance on
multi-polarity, reducing American hegemony within the global financial system, and
cooperating visa-vis climate change.
• 2. Weak Economic relations between Russia-India:
• While in the cold war era the Soviet Union was India's biggest trade partner, post-economic
liberalization countries like the US, China, and UAE have emerged as India's primary trade
partners.
• The bilateral trade between India and Russia is about $10bn annually:
• 1. India's least trade volume with P-5 countries.
• 2. Both countries are absent in their respective list of talk-15 trading partners.
• Reasons for low trade:
• Distance and connectivity issues:
• 1. While transport of Goods between Russia and China or Europe takes a maximum of one
or two weeks, comparison transportation takes 40-50 days between India and Russia.
• 2. Weak banking links
• 3. Bureaucratization and cumbersome regulations on both sides.
• 4. Restrictive VISA regime of Russia.
• 5. lack of enthusiastic private sector participation.
• Solutions:
• Alternative routes connecting India and Russia such as early operationalization of the
INSTC corridor.
• launch of the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route:
• 1. It seeks to connect Russia's far East (RFE) with India.
• a. RFE- is relatively underdeveloped. It has abundant resources such as coal, hydrocarbon,
important minerals, diamonds, and timber but lacks manpower.
• b. India with its abundant manpower such as doctors, and engineers can help in the
region's development while addressing Russia's concern over Chinese migration into the
region.
• This sea route when open will enable the transfer of cargo between the two cities in 24
days in comparison to 40 days currently taken to transport goods vis Europe.
• Expedite FTA negotiations between India and Russia led Eurasian Economic Union.
• Encourage private sector participation and develop the necessary banking linkages.
• Correct the adverse balance of trade which is in Russia's favor since defense exports and
civilian nuclear exports dominate the trade basket.
• Areas of India's strength like - the IT sector, Pharmaceutical should figure more
prominently in the bilateral trade.

India's defense diversification: 7:42 PM

• Unlike in the past, Soviet Union/Russia is no longer near the absolute supplier of India's
defense equipment.
• India has actively sought diversification of its defense imports from countries such as the
US, Israel, and France.
• India's defense exports from the US have increased from almost zero in the 1990s to $20 bn
in 2022.
• India has concluded all four foundational agreements with US and defense has in fact
emerged as a key pillar of their bilateral ties.
• Russia-Pakistan relation:
• Driven by Moscow's concern about Afghanistan, Russia-Pakistan ties have witnessed an up
graph in recent times.
• 1. They conducted a joint military exercise
• 2. Russia signed a military training agreement with Pakistan
• 3. The long-maintained arms embargo on Pakistan was diluted when Moscow sold attack
helicopters to Rawalpindi.
• The arms embargo has been reintroduced following India's concern.

India wants Russia to be part of the Indo-pacific vision- 7:51 PM

• India has consistently made efforts to include Russia in its Indo-pacific formulation.
• Reason:
• Russia's greater Eurasian partnership 2015 said it wants to achieve an ideal geo-economic
and geo-political position as the center of Eurasia and it would act as a friendly
counterbalance to China such that it does not become a military or political hegemon in
the region.
• India's Indo-pacific has a similar aim, India stands for open and inclusive indo-pacific and
Russia's participation would make it multi-polar, thus both these countries want to avoid
the hegemony of any power be it the US or China in the region.
• Russia is critical to the continental balancing of China.
• Evidence:
• India launched its act far east policy for increasing cooperation with Russia's far east.
• India and Russia are working on a plan to develop RFE between 2020 to 2025.
• India wants to partner with Russia in opening its Northern sea route for trade and
commerce.
• The northern sea route-It aims to connect Russia's far east with eastern Asia
• The existing route connecting East Asia to west Europe passes through the malacca strait,
the swiss canal, and the Mediterranean sea.
• It is approximately 2100 km and takes about 48 days to travel.
• The Northern sea route which traverses the Arctic ocean along Russia's Northern borders
will reduce the distance between East Asia and Western Europe to 12800 Kms and would
take around 35 days.
• In this route, Russia will be the primary actor:
• Since it lies parallel to Russia's northern borders stretching from the barring strait to
western Russia, it will be under Russian influence.
• To make this route feasible all year round, ice breakers would be needed and Russia has
the largest fleet of it including nuclear-powered ice breakers.

Cl21
India - West Asia- 5:17 PM
• Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads with each other due to really
religious reasons.
• India has bilateral ties with all three countries mentioned above.
• The ties are now getting normal after the signing of the Abrahamic accord.
• I2U2- India, Israel, UAE, USA.
• Gulf countries- Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman.
• Levant region- Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel.
• West Asia map and important countries ( covered on board).
• Caucasian nations- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and parts of Southern Russia.
Greater Middle East- 5:42 PM
• Geographically overlapping with other regions.
• Explained on board.
India- Israel relation- 5:52 PM
• Israel was formed in May 1998.
• Created for Jewish people who have been facing religious persecution for years.
• India recognizes Israel's state in 1950 for :
• 1. To facilitate the migration of Jews from India.
• 2. To be a mediator in the region.
• India accorded diplomatic recognition in 1992.
• Madrid peace conference- two-state theory.
• 1950- 1992 Time period
• These were not fallow years rather both had strategic cooperation.
• NSG setup and training by Israel.
• Helped in the wars of 1962, 1965, and 1971.
• Cooperation between RAW & Mossad.
• Purchase of weaponry.
• 1992-2014-
• Two high-level visits of the foreign minister.
• Due to ideological reluctance.
• In 2015 Indian President visited Israel and in 2017 Indian PM visited Israel.
• Dehyphenation relation of Israel and Palestine.
Areas of cooperation- 6:19 PM
• Defense
• Agriculture- Dry land farming
• Energy
• Water management
• Start up- Merges
• Innovation
• Win-win partnership
• Cultural ties
• Cyber security
• People-to-people connect
• Israel India's natural ally
India- Israel-Palestinian Policy (Explained on board)- 6:51 PM
• Cold war phase- Support for the Palestinian cause.
• After the cold war phase- India was balancing its relation.
• Contemporary phase- Dephenation, India supports the right of Palestinian self-
determination.
• Challenges- India does not support Hammas (a terror group), and balancing is not going
well.
Abraham Accord- 7:09 PM
• Accord to normalize relations between UAE and Israel mediated by the US in 2020.
• Later Bahrain, South Sudan, as well as Morroco, also normalized their relations with Israel.
• Reasons- need to counter Iran, Arab countries revitalize their economy, I2U2 was formed,
etc.
• I2U2- Identified six sectors of cooperation.
India-Saudi Arabia relations (Explained Orally)- 7:21 PM
• Importance- Energy needs, leading trade partner (India is 2nd largest and Saudi Arabia is
4th largest partner), Investment, remittances (Indian diaspora), Socio-cultural relations
(Indian visit Mecca for Haj).
• Evolution & Cooperation- India has Historical, and socio-economic ties with Kingdom,
after open economic relations got pushed Delhi-Riyadh declarations, Strategic ties, later
the ties improved in 2016 and Indian PM received the highest civilian award.
• India signed an MOU agreement with GCC in order to institutionalize the annual dialogue.
• Challenges- Growing Islamophobia in India, remarks by Indian political leaders, criticism
of India by OIC and other countries, Wahabism funding, India's growing relations with Iran,
safety and security of Indian diaspora, absence of minimum wages, stringent labor laws.
India - UAE- 7:47 PM
• Relations are quite new.
• India signed CEPA with UAE which is UAE's first FTA.

CL22
India-Iran- 5:22 PM
• Significance:
• Energy security- Oil and gas.
• Connectivity - Chahbahar port, INSTC, Afghanistan, Central Asia.
• Strategic- To counter the Chinese string of pearls, continental balancing of China, balance
of power in West Asia.
• Evolution of relation:
• 1947-79- Iranian revolution.
• 1979-90- Iran supported Kashmir, and Relations declined.
• 1990-2003- Instability in Afghanistan, Taliban phase, relations grew between both the
country.
• 2003- US intervened, and relations got stuck due to Iran's nuclear program.
• US-Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), 2015 between Iran - P-5, EU, and Germany.
• Nov. 2018 Trump government revoked the agreement, a policy of maximum pressure on
Iran.
• After Biden's government, Iran was asked to comply with the agreement, but relations are
still stuck.
Challenges- 6:03 PM
• China factor, Iran signed $400 Bn with China.
• Support of Iran to Kashmir issue.
• Close relations between India -Saudi Arabia, US create tensions.
• India stopped importing Oil from Iran.
• Wayforward- India needs to have an autonomous need-based policy with respect to Iran.
India-Sri Lanka- 6:12 PM
• Strategic - An island nation in close proximity to India, in the center of the Arc of Sea lane of
communication, IOR country
• Economic- Trade,
• India does not want hostile external influences like China
• People-to-people connect Tamil politics.
• Issue- Sinhalese want to capture the power, they are anti-Tamils.
• Operation Poomalai- India Air dropped food supply in Jaffna, signing of India-Sri Lanka
accord.
• India voted against Sri Lanka in UNHRC.
• Sri Lanka got inclined toward China, joins BRI, and Hambantota port, syndicated loans
from China can be used for any purpose.
• Sri Lanka has always maintained India first when it comes to security.
• India started investment along with Japan, developmental assistance, the building of
colonies for Tamils, balance China with soft power.
• Wayforward- partnership with West and partnership in IOR region, Contain China with
software.
Fisherman issue in SriLanka- 6:42 PM
• Kachchatheevu islands India gave to Sri Lanka so India lost their fishing rights, Agreement
in 1979 allowed them to visit the island.
• Due to the civil war in Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan government banned fishing in the northern
region.
• Large bottom trawlers by Indian fishermen destroying the ecology.
• Set standard procedures to stop incursions by fishermen on both sides.
• The ultimate solution may be allowing primary stakeholders like fishermen and the
government.
Sri Lankan Economic crisis- 7:06 PM
• It had a huge debt and the forex was depleted.
• This led to rising in inflation and a doubling of food prices.
• The currency deflated.
• Reasons- Economic mismanagement, expensive loans, wars with Litte, corruption, COVID-
struck tourism.
• It has asked for loans from IMF, restructuring of debts, asked for assistance from India.
• India has provided assistance of $5 Bn to Sri Lanka in line of credit, and grant assistance.
• India has provided Rice and Urea, drugs, and reached out to IMF on behalf of Sri Lanka.
United Nations -7:16 PM
• Founded on 24th Oct 1945.
• Present members 193, latest to join South Sudan.
• Aims-
• 1. To end the scourge of war and to promote friendly relations among the countries.
• 2. To protect human rights.
• 3. To promote development.
• UN system/family:
• 1. UN & its six organs- UNSC, UNGA, ECOSOC, Trusteeship council, ICJ, and UN secretariat.
• 2. Special funds and program- They are established by the resolution of UNGA and have a
focused mandate. (UN funding is called assessed contribution - It is membership fees
based on the size of the economy and per capita income),
• Programs- UNDP, UNEP, UN population fund (UNFPA), UN-Habitat, Unicef, WFP
• 3. Independent agencies- They are autonomous international organizations that are
working with the UN.
• Like- FAO, International civil aviation org, ILO, IMF, IMO, ITU, UNESCO, WHO, WIPO, WMO,
World bank, etc.
• Functions:
• UNGA- It is a representative, deliberative and policy-making organ of the UN.
• It comprises all 193 member states of UN, they have an annual session sept in New York.
• UNSC- It is the nucleus of the UN, under the UN charter the maintenance of peace and
security is the primary responsibility of the UNSC.
• It is the only organ with teeth to bite, it can pass legally binding resolutions.
• There are 15 members 5 permanent having veto and 10 non-permanent having no veto
power elected for two-year power.
• Therefore every year five non-permanent members retire and five new non-permanent
members are elected.
• The non-permanent members are elected on the basis of geographical representation.
• Until 1965 there used to be only six non-permanent members.
• P-5 countries have double Vetoes.
ECOSOC- 7:44 PM
• Primary body for policy coordination, and dialogue on sustainable development.
• It comprises 54 members elected by UNGA.
• The seats are allocated based on geographic representation.
• Trusteeship council- established in 1945 to look after its trust territories.
• The aim was to enable them to achieve self-governance.
• By 1994 all the trust territories had attained independence or self-rule.
• Therefore since then, the trusteeship council exists without an active mandate.
• UN Secretariat- It comprises the secretary general and thousands of international UN
staff.
• The UN secretary general is the chief administrative officer of UN. He is appointed by UNGA
on the recommendation of UNSC for a five-year term.
• The term is renewable. The present secretary-general is Antonio Guterres. (first secretary
general Trygue Lie)

•
• CL23
International Criminal Court (ICC)
• It is headquartered in the Hague, Netherlands.
• ICC was established on the basis of the Rome Statute. It was opened for signature in 1998
and entered into force in 2002.
• There are 123 member countries of the International Criminal Court (ICC). However,
countries like India, China, Iraq, North Korea and Turkey have not signed the Rome Statute.
While countries like the US, Russia, Israel, and Syria, have not ratified it.
• Jurisdiction: It is the first and only Permanent International Court with jurisdiction to
prosecute individuals for the international crimes of Genocide, War Crimes, Crimes
against Humanity, and Crimes of Aggression.
• It is intended to complement the existing National Judicial System. Therefore it exercises
jurisdiction in certain cases only when the national courts are unable or unwilling to
prosecute the criminals.
• The court was established to fight global impunity and bring to justice criminals under
international law regardless of their rank and stature.

How Does International Criminal Court (ICC) Functions (05:26:00 AM)

• The office carries out its investigation through the Office of the Prosecutor and has 18
judges.
• Both the judges and prosecutor hold a non-renewable 9-year term.
• There are a pre-trial, trial, and appellate benches in the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• The Prosecutor conducts a preliminary examination of the matter before seeking
permission from the pre-trial judges to open a full-scale investigation.
• The Initial investigation must conclude that the crimes are of sufficient gravity.
In the case of the members country of the International Criminal Court (ICC) the prosecutor
can open the investigation in three ways:
• When the case is referred by a member country in its own territory.
• When the case is referred by the UNSC.
• When the prosecutor takes up the case Propio Motu (on his own)
In the case of the non-member states of the International Criminal Court (ICC), an
investigation can be opened in the following ways:
• If the alleged crime takes place in the territory of a member state of the International
Criminal Court (ICC).
• If the non-member state accepts ICC jurisdiction.
• When UNSC authorises it.
Limitations of ICC
• It does not have its own enforcement body. It relies on cooperation with countries'
worldwide support.
• It gives International Criminal Court (ICC) less deterrent value as the potential perpetrators
of war crimes know that they can avoid the International Criminal Court (ICC) judgement
by taking over the government and refusing to cooperate.
• The pace of investigation and judgement: After 19 years of being active the court has
tried only a few cases that do not justify the financial resources, time and effort invested in
it.
• Biased and Favour of Western Power Like the US: This was pointed out when in 2019 the
Court denied permission to start an investigation into Afghanistan and recently when the
prosecutor wanted to restart the investigation after the Taliban takeover, because of the
 scarcity of resources he sought to prioritise investigation into the crimes committed by the
Taliban.

Biased Against the Africa/A tool of Western Imperialism:

• Barring the recent years, the court since its formation largely took up the
cases/investigation primarily alleged crimes committed by African countries.
• Nearly all the cases in the trial stage before the court are from Africa.
• African Union in 2016 had endorsed a proposal led by Kenya for the mass withdrawal of
African countries from Rome’s Statute.
Why India has not signed the Rome Statute (05:51:00 PM)
• India was part of the initial negotiation of the Rome Statute. However, once the final draft
of the Rome Statute was adopted India decided against joining it.
• Reasons
• On the Principled Ground: ICC Provide extraordinary power to UNSC to bind the non-state
parties to the jurisdiction of the ICC while not necessitating the P5 countries themselves to
sign and ratify the Rome Statute.
• India contents it to be violative of the Vienna Convention on the Laws of Treaties. It
states that no Sovereign nation can be forced to accede or be bound by a treaty that it has
not accepted.
• India objects to the omission of the Crime such as terrorism, use of nuclear weapons, and
weapons of mass destruction from the jurisdiction of the ICC.
• Since India is the victim of insurgency and militancy it gives extraordinary power to its
security personnel. Thus India does not want to make its security personnel vulnerable to
international jurisdiction or use of such powers as pressure points against India.
• India believes that its national judicial system is competent enough and capable of trying
any such individuals if required.

Mechanisms and Concepts under United Nations (06:09:00 PM)

(Explanation)
• Collective Security: To maintain world security and peace. To protect Human Rights and
To promote development.
• Uniting for the peace resolution/ Acheson Plan/UN General Assembly Resolution 377.
• Peacekeeping Operation (PKO).
• Only Collective security has been mentioned in the UN Charter.
• Responsibility to protect R2P/R to P: As per this concept, the UN should not be a bystander.
(Dictation)

Collective Security
• Collective security is based on the theme “One for all, all for One”.
• It is based on the idea that in case of aggression committed by one member country
against another, the rest of the member countries of the UN for the sake of world security
and peace will come together to punish the aggressor.
• The Threat of such an action will deter wars in the world.
• UNSC was given the power to operationalize collective security. However, because of P2 vs.
P3 divide, it has been stuck in a logjam/it has been in a state of deadlock. Therefore it has
been unable to operationalize collective security when the need arises.
• Thus collective security has been rarely operationalized. For example, during the first Gulf
War.
 Uniting for the Peace Resolution/Acheson Plan/UN General Assembly Resolution 377 (V)
• It is a mechanism under which in case of a deadlock in the UNSC, the UN General Assembly
can sanction the operationalization of collective security by passing a resolution to that
effect by the 2/3rd majority of the member countries.
• It was a mechanism suggested to override the veto of P5 of the UNSC when such a need
arises.
• USR was not comfortable thus it was not operationalized in a concrete manner.
UN Peacekeeping Operations (PKO)
• It is the brainchild of the second secretary general of the UN Dag Hammarskjold.
• The purpose of the PKO was to ensure an immediate end to the hostility. It seeks to ensure
through the deployment of peacekeeping troops (blue helmets) ceasefire.

Challenges faced by Peacekeeping Operation (06:40:00 PM)

• Change in the Nature of International Conflicts: With the end of the cold war inter-state
wars have declined while intra-state wars have emerged as the primary international
conflicts. With this change in the nature of wars, the vulnerability of the security
forces/blue helmets has increased because in intra-state conflicts the non-state actors
are involved seeking their consent or holding them accountable for the violation of their
initial consent is quite difficult.
• Peacekeeping operations are financed by developed countries while the developing world
is the primary troop contributor. The decisions vis-à-vis deployment of the peacekeeping
mission and other such decisions involving PKO is undertaken by UNSC. The troop-
contributing countries led by India have been demanding greater involvement in decisions
with respect to peacekeeping missions.
• The developed countries have suggested Robust Peace Keeping whereby the
peacekeeping forces will be involved in not just the maintenance of ceasefire but also
undertake offensive actions when necessary. Such an idea has been rejected by developing
countries.
• From Peacekeeping to Peace-Building: With time the complexity of the task to be
performed by Blue Helmets have increased they are involved in a range of activities from
infrastructure building to providing medical aid, technological solutions, etc.
Responsibility to protect (R2P/R to P) (07:09:00 AM)
• It is an international norm that seeks to ensure that the international community never
again fails to prevent Human Rights violations and halt mass atrocities of genocide, ethnic
cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against Humanity.
• This global political commitment was endorsed by all UN member countries at the 2005
World Summit.
• Three Pillars each of equal standing have been identified under the R2P.
• Responsibility of the nation-state to protect the Human Rights of its population.
• Responsibility of the international community to assist in protecting their population.
• Responsibility of the international community to protect when a state manifestly fails to
protect its population.
• R2P has been operationalized only once in the world during the Lybian crisis givens its
gross misuse by the west then a global consensus has been generated against its uses
henceforth.
Assessment/Evaluation of Performance of United Nations (07:23:00 PM)
• It can be evaluated on three major grounds that are peace, Human Rights protection, and
Promotion of development.
• Peace: Its performance has been contested, while some contest effectiveness of the UN in
ensuring world peace siting the number of ongoing wars such as the Russia-Ukraine War,
the Yemen crisis Syrian crisis, the Venezuelan crisis, the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia, etc. as proof of the ineffectiveness of the UN to world peace.
• On the other hand, others believe that peacekeeping operation has been successful to end
on-ground hostility and has prevented the acceleration as well increase in the magnitude
of conflicts the world over. Had it not been the UN, the world would have seen many more
wars.
• They argue that the biggest evidence of the relevance of the UN to world peace has been its
ability to prevent the outbreak of World War III.
• However, others believe that it is because of the deterrence of nuclear weapons that WW III
has not broken out but not the deterrence of the UN. Thus the role/contribution of the UN
towards peace remains contested.
• To protect Human Rights: Its role as the protector of Human Rights has been poor. There
has been a consistent increase in Human rights violations across the world as is evident in
the Rohingya crisis, Israel Palestinian conflict, the Taliban in Afghanistan, lack of
access/gross shortage of the vaccine faced by Africa during the COVID Pandemic (because
of the vaccine nationalism of the West), etc.
• Also, the instrument of R2P has been grossly misused such that its operationalization in
future remains doubtful.
• To Promote Development: Vis-à-vis promotion of global development UN has performed
well. There has been a reduction in absolute poverty, world hunger has reduced, and
malnourishment has reduced. UN through ECOSOC and through its various funds and
programmes such as UNDP, UNEP, UNICEF, etc. and through MDGs and SDGs have been
successful in delivering global development.
• There has been an improvement in the standard of living in general.
• However, Inadequate financial resources hamper the role they can play in the
development of individuals.
Reform of the UN (07:44:00 PM)
• It can be discussed under Charter reforms, Financial reforms and Institutional reforms.
Charter reforms
• Article 2 (7) of the UN charter prohibits the UN’s involvement in the internal affairs of the
member countries.
• However, as the nature of conflict in the world has changed and the rise of intra-state
conflict it has become necessary for the UN to intervene whenever necessary for the sake
of World Security.
• UN Charter makes reference to the “Enemy State” with respect to the Axis Power of World
War II. The UN Charter needs to be amended to remove any such references.
Financial Reforms
• Given the wide-ranging functions that the UN is expected to perform, it suffers from fund
shortages.
• The UN remains solely dependent on member countries' membership fees for its finances.
There is often delay and at times default in funding/paying the membership fees.
• Misutilisation of Fund.
• Suggested solution: UN should be provided with an independent source of funding to
augment its financial resources, for instance, the Tobin tax may be imposed on
international financial transactions and funds accruing under it should be given to the UN.
Institutional reforms
• UN General Assembly: Better coordination with UNSC.
• Trusteeship councils: It is an organ of the UN with no active mandate
• Suggested Solution: Either abolish it or give it some new mandate such as governance of
global commons like space, Antarctica, climate, etc.
• ECOSOC: It has been given wide-ranging functions and a number of working groups,
commissions, funds and programmes with overlapping mandates under it. Thus, ECOSOC
has become unwieldy as a body.
• Suggested solution: Streamline the functions of various bodies operating under the
ECOSOC.
• UN Secretariat: It suffers from bureaucratic red-tapism, cumbersome procedures, and
bureaucratic inertia. Over Representation of West in UN bureaucracy.
• Suggested solution: Apart from addressing the bureaucratic challenges, ensure adequate
representation of the countries of the east in the UN

CL24
UNSC reforms: 5:27 PM
• 1. Membership reforms:
• Reasons:
• UNSC is anachronistic (out of time) in nature- it is no longer representative of the
present global distribution of power.
• The p-5 countries represent the most important global power of 1945, these were the
global powers that emerged in the aftermath of world war -II.
• Since 1945 the world order has undergone dramatic change, and there is a relative decline
in the power of countries like the UK while countries like India, Indonesia, and Brazil have
become an important global power.
• UNSC membership is not representative of the total UN membership:
• In 1945 when the total membership stood at 51 countries, UNSC comprised P-5 countries
plus 6 non-permanent members.
• In 1965 non-permanent membership was increased from 6 to 10 countries, and the total
membership of the UN was 117 countries.
• In 2022 the total membership stands at 193 countries while there is no change in the
composition or membership of the permanent members of the UNSC.
• Despite a nearly four-fold increase in the total membership P-5 remains the same.
• Inadequate geographical representation:
• Over-representation of Europe by the UK, France, and Russia where Asia is
underrepresented.
• Africa and Latin America have no representation where most of the UN missions are based.
• UNSC reforms are essential to ensure:
• Representativeness, legitimacy, and effectiveness of it.
• UNSC is the nucleus of and therefore its legitimacy is critical to ensure the legitimacy of the
UN itself.
• 2. Veto reforms:
• Each P-5 countries have a Veto.
• The veto power of the P-5 has been responsible for the deadlock in the UNSC which has
prevented it to act effectively in case of threat to global peace.
• Suggested solution:
• 1. If complete abolition of veto power is not feasible, the scope of its usage should be
reduced to issues affecting the core national interest of the P-5 countries.
• 2. UNGA should have powers to override the veto in case of a deadlock in the UNSC.
• 3. Procedural reforms:
• Better coordination between UNGA and UNSC.
• Bringing transparency in its functioning.
• UNSC should consult with contributing countries in peacekeeping operations.

Countries and regions aspiring for permanent membership of UNSC- 5:55 PM

• G-4- India, Japan, Germany & brazil.
• Their candidature is opposed by the Coffee Club.
• Coffee club/Uniting for Consensus- Pakistan, Italy, Spain, Argentina, S.Koria, Canada,
Australia,
• The coffee club's candidature is opposed by the argument they are not even regional
power therefore their inclusion will create problems
• To assuage the concerns the G-4 countries have proposed permanent membership without
veto for initial 15 years.
• On the other hand, the coffee club has passed a resolution called uniting for consensus
according to which consensus should be the basis of according them UNSC permanent
membership rather than a special majority requirement.
• Amending the charter as mentioned in the charter itself.
• African Union- According to the Ezulvini consensus and Sirte declaration, African Union
demands two permanent seats with a veto.
• The AU counties will hold these two permanent seats in rotation.
• The demand of AU is led by C-10 (committee of ten countries) which in turn is led by Sierra
Leone.
• L-69- It is a group of developing countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, including
island nations and states.
• India and Brazil have joined L-69.
• L-69 is Un reform-oriented group demanding lasting and comprehensive reform of the
UNSC.
• The group demands an expansion of permanent and non-permanent membership, reforms
in UNSC working methods, and better representation of developing countries' aspirations,
including SIDS ( small island developing states) which comprise 20% of the total
membership of the UN.
• OIC- Organization of Islamic countries- It seeks representation of Islamic countries in the
UNSC, however, its demand is weak because there exists no provision for religious
representation in the UN.

Case for India's permanent membership- 6:22 PM

• Benefits:
• 1. It will be a global acknowledgment of India's great power status.
• 2. As a permanent member it will gain a say in the internal functioning of the UN.
• 3. If the permanent membership is accompanied by veto power it will be able to safeguard
and promote core national interests.
• 4. It will satisfy India's long-standing ambition of getting its rightful place in the comity of
nation-states.
• How UNSC/UN benefits:
• 1. India is a neutral country that takes a principal stand on international issues based on
their merit. Therefore India's membership will impact greater credibility and legitimacy of
the UNSC.
• 2. India can act as a moderator and abridge in the present P-2 vs P-3.
• 3. No other country in the world is in line with the UN ideals as is India.
• 4. Indian civilizational values of Vasudev Kutumbhkam and Sarve Bhavantu Sukhina are in
consonance with UN values including Indian constitutional ideals (Article 51).
• Grounds on which India demands UNSC permanent membership:
• 1. India is the 2nd most populous country in the world; expected to take over China in 2023.
• 2. It represents 17% of the total world population; every 6th person on the planet is Indian.
• 3. India represents 5th largest economy in the world; 3rd largest in PPP terms and India is
the fastest-growing major economy.
• 4. India represents 4th largest army in the world.
• 5. India is a responsible de-facto nuclear-weapon state.
• 6. India represents the world's largest democracy; liberal democracy.
• 7. India is a significant troop-contributing country in UN peacekeeping.
• 8. India is the leader of countries of the south.
• 9. India represents a pluralistic society.
• 10. The global theatre of international politics has shifted Indo-pacific; India is one of the
primary powers in the region.
• 11. constitutional commitment ot world peace.
• 12. Civilizational values conducive to world peace.

Steps were taken by India- 6:53 PM

• Develop good relations bilaterally with developing and developed countries,
• Put for its candidature individually, through groups like L-69 & G-4.
• Contested for non-permanent membership of UNSC.
• It has been elected with an overwhelming majority 8times in the past.
• 4 out of 5 support India's candidature.
• Prospects:
• Expansion of UNSC remains fraught with challenges:
• The P-5 countries are unlikely to agree on the expansion of permanent membership of the
UNSC anytime soon since it would result in a dilution of their global power status.
• P-5 is the most exclusive club in international politics.
• The US has declared that it will be willing to accept the expansion of the UNSC only on the
condition that there is no alteration of the existing veto power or expansion of the right to
veto.
• In fact, it represents the position of other P-5 countries as well.
• In such a circumstance India should:
• 1. India should in the meantime focus on internal development.
• 2. Should be willing to accept permanent membership with or without a veto.
• 3. The other members of the UN also do not want any more veto-wielding powers in UNSC.
• 4. It is in this context it is suggested that a new category of semi-permanent members is
incorporated within UNSC.
• India should willingly accept such a position.
• Under semipermanent countries would be elected for a period of 8-10 years and would be
eligible for re-election.
• In pursuit, if enlightened national interest India should seriously consider the prospects of
semi-permanent membership if it were to arise.

UNHRC- 7:27 PM
• It is an inter-governmental body within the UN system responsible for strengthening and
protecting human rights around the world.
• It comprises 47 member countries elected by UNGA based on equitable geographical
representation.
• Members are elected for a period of three years and are not eligible for immediate re-
election after serving two consecutive terms.
• The council was created by UNGA in 2006.
• It replaced the former UN commission on human rights.
• The office of the high commissioner for human rights serves as a secretariat of UNHRC.
• It is based in Geneva Switzerland.
• Universal periodic review- it is a peer-based evaluation mechanism of the performance of
the country visa human rights.
• It is conducted every five years for the member states of the UN.
• UNHRC is a charter-based body of the UN.

International Nuclear Treaties (explained on board) - 7:35 PM

• NPT- Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty
• The draft opened for signature in 1968 and came into force in 1970.
• Indefinitely extended.
• Check horizontal proliferation
• To foster the peaceful use of nuclear energy
• Global nuclear disarmement
• Significance:
• Multilateral
• Universal representation
• Global consensus
• It is successful in the proliferation
CTBT (Comprehensive test ban treaty) - 7:55 PM
• Bans all the test civilian or military
• Zero yield ban treaty - bans supercritical test
• Signed by 184 and ratified by 168 countries but yet not came into force.
• CL25
CTBT (comprehensive test ban Treaty)- 5:08 PM
• Not yet come into force.
• India, Pakistan, and North Korea have not signed.
• The US, Iran, Israel, and Egypt have not ratified.
• India says that the treaty is discriminatory (i.e neither comprehensive nor a test ban) where
India was the first country for PTBT.
• India believes in global nuclear disarmament.
• Should India sign CTBT- India has nothing to lose.
• India has already said in 1998 that it won't be conducting any future nuclear tests in future
(self-moratorium).
• India also had developed lab simulated tests which are not banned under CTBT.
• Benefits:
• Diplomatic gain, India's image as a responsible nuclear power.
• This will aid India's chances for a permanent member of the UNSC.
• Technical gains., access to data, etc.
• It may create momentum for other countries as well.
Handled the online query on answer writing (explained on board)- 5:38 PM
FMCT (Fissile material cut-off treaty)- 6:03 PM
• Aims to ban the production of fissile materials which are components of nuclear weapons
like Uranium and Plutonium.
• There is no draft agreed upon yet, no consensus only a multilateral platform.
• Negotiations must take under Shannon's mandate.
• There exist points of contention and disagreement:
• 1. Verification
• 2. Existing stockpiles
• China and Russia pre-conditioned the negotiation of PAROS along with FMCT.
• It is primarily checking vertical proliferation.
Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPBW) - 6:22 PM
• It was adopted in 2017 and it entered into force in January 2021.
• It was the consequence of grass root movement by ICAN ( international campaign against
nuclear weapons).
• It completely bans nuclear weapons.
• Development, testing, storage, transfer, use, and threat to use is banned.
• Also, this treaty has a comprehensive safeguard regime.
• It has provision for environmental remediation.
• The nuclear weapon state and its allies have stayed out of the treaty.
MECRs (Multilateral Export Control Regimes)- 6:35 PM
• NSG
• MTCR
• Wassenaar agreement
• Australia Group
India's nuclear doctrine- 6:55 PM
• In 1998 operation Shakti- India developed nuclear weapons and India became a defacto
nuclear-weapon state.
• 1999 the draft nuclear doctrine was released.
• 2003- The official nuclear doctrine reviewed and approved by the cabinet committee on
security was released.
• Objectives:
• To explain the nuclear posture as well as its rationale.
• Its posture is defensive since India has acquired nuclear weapons to deter any nuclear
attack on India.
• Features:
• No first use.
• No use against non-nuclear weapon states.
• India reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of biological or chemical weapon
attack on India for its forces anywhere in the world.
• In case of a nuclear attack on India, there will be massive retaliation to inflict unacceptable
damage (For this India has to develop 2nd strike capability, India has completed the
nuclear triad by developing nuclear submarines).
• Building and maintaining credible minimum deterrence (CMD).
• India would not be part of the nuclear arms race, it would develop only as many nuclear
weapons as it is necessary to deter a potential nuclear attack on India.
• Nuclear retaliation can be authorized by the civilian political leadership.
• A continuance for strict control on the export of nuclear and fissile-related material and
technologies, participation in FMCT negotiations, and continued observance of a
moratorium on the nuclear test.
• Continued commitment to the goal of a nuclear-weapon-free world through Global,
verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament.
• CMD- It is a contested provision of India's nuclear doctrine.
• Some scholars (expansionists) criticize its effectiveness, they term it a vague concept, and
they argue against identifying the minimum number of nuclear weapons required to deter
any such attack.
• They question the ability to gauge any such threshold of minimum weapons.
• They believe that this provision in fact weakens India's nuclear deterrence.
• They suggest India should increase its nuclear weapons in number and sophistication to
deter a potential nuclear attack on India.
• On the other hand, there are scholars referred to as optimists who argue in support of
CMD.
• K. Subramanium the chief architect of the draft nuclear doctrine argued that deterrence is
the function of effective command and control structure rather than a number of nuclear
weapons.
Climate change diplomacy (explained on board)- 7:39 PM
• 1972- Stockholm conference.
• Principle of justice, fairness, and equity.
• India said the principle of equity, historical responsibility has to be borne.
• 2009- Copenhagen COP-15, China quantified GHG emission reduction targets
• Cancun COP-16.
• Paris climate agreement 2015.
• NDC (Paris COP-21).

CL26
India-Japan relation 5:18 PM
• Timeline/phases of relations:
• 1947-74- Formation of INA, people to people level good, state to state was tepid.
• 1974-1985- Japan sanctions India as India conducted a nuclear test, and relations
worsened.
• 1985-2000-PM first visit to Japan, addressed the Japanese parliament (Diet) and discussed
the need for good relations.
• 2000 onwards- Relations improved, the cherry blossom phase, the Indian market was
growing, India became a nuclear power, and India was recognized as a balancing power.
• 2006- Relations elevated to Special strategic and global partners.
• 2016-17- India-Japan civil nuclear deal.
• Areas of cooperation-
• Trade & Investment- CEPA 2011, India's trade deficit increased, ODA of Japan, Mega
infrastructure projects in India (bullet train), Japan is allowed to develop infra in NE &
Andaman Nicobar, etc.
Discussion on other Areas of cooperation- 6:05 PM
• Defense- Malabar exercise, Bilateral exercises across the three branches, QUAD, 2+2
dialogue, ACSA/MLSA
• Global partnership- G4, UNSC permanent seat, UNSC reforms, Climate change, disaster risk
management, global nuclear disarmament, Indo-pacific free and open.
• Areas of disagreements/challenges-
• India's sudden decision to opt-out of RCEP surprised Japan, Japan wanted India's support
against the policy of China.
• Defense trade agenda- US-2 amphibious aircraft, India wanted Japan's Soryu class
submarines and Japan did not bid on such a contract.
• MLSA & AAGC (no project under it yet), India wants CEPA to rework.
Other complementarities- 6:29 PM
• Both represent Asia's largest vibrant democracies.
• Territorial disputes with China ( over the Senkaku islands).
• Japan is the most trusted ally of India and India is the most dependable partner to Japan.
• Japan is an indispensable partner in India's economic transformation.
• India & Japan as lynchpins of rule-based Indo-Pacific-
• Genesis- Confluence of 2 seas speech of Shinzo Abe in Indian Parliament.
• Indo-Pacific policy launched by President Trump, Asia-Pacific policy, after pivot to Asia of
Obama.
• China says that Indo-pacific is an exclusive club so the word inclusive was also added.
India-Japan Lynchpin- 6:55 PM
• The geographical proximity between the country.
• Both are trading nations and the bulk of their trade passes through Indo-pacific.
• Absence of strategic disagreements.
• The vision of Indo-Pacific rule-based order, peaceful settlement of issues.
• Both countries have capabilities, military, economic, and intent.
• Trading nations.
• Both have territorial disputes.
JAI (Japan, America, India) trilateral - 7:24 PM
• First Summit was held in Dec 2018 and the Second in June 2019.
• Building a regional architecture in Indo-Pacific.
• India asserts that this architecture has to e inclusive.
India -US relations- 7:30 PM
• Evolution/Phases-
• Estranged partnerships, democracies, natural allies.
• 1947-1971- India was not in the US camp, cooperation, and competition.
• 1971-1990- Fall in relations, no cooperation, US criticism of NAM.
• 1991-2000- Government priority to improve relations with the US, nuclear test led to
negotiations with India.
• 2000 onwards-Relations started improving, nuclear deal, Economy attracted, Rise of China
as balancing power,
• Areas of cooperation-
• Areas of disagreements/challenges-

CL27
WAY FORWARD-
• The USA has the status of the world's oldest democracy.
• The USA was also a supporter of Indian freedom under the right to self-determination.
• Unlike the hopes of goodwill between the world's largest and oldest democracies, India-
USA relations were cold for most of the 20th century.
• The relations soured after the 1998 nuclear tests by India.
• The USA, the world's sole superpower then, tried to avoid a nuclear conflict between India
and Pakistan and entered into negotiations with India.
• The USA had earlier imposed a type of nuclear embargo on India after the formation of
the Nuclear Suppliers Group in response to the 1974 nuclear tests of India.

India-USA relations after 2000:

• After the 9/11 attacks, the USA launched the" Global war on Terror", in which, Pakistan was
given the status of a ", major Non-Nato Ally".
• This went against the longstanding Induan narrative of global terrorism.
• Along with the aim to secure its energy needs, India grew closer to Iran.
• Situations became complicated when in 2003, reports came of Iranian enrichment of
uranium for weaponizing them.
• The USA sought to diplomatically and economically isolate Iran, and for that, it sought
Indian contribution.
• In return, the USA offered to lift or provide an exception to the nuclear apartheid over
India.
• Along with this, the USA also wanted market access to Indian markets for its private
nuclear corporations.
• Even after the Civil Nuclear Deal 2008, the American private sector could not make
inroads into India.
• The reason was the strict and costly conditions as per the Nuclear liability clause.
• Russia turned out to be the biggest beneficiary of the removal of nuclear apartheid from
India.
• The reason is that the Russian nuclear corporations in India are all Russian public
undertakings, so the liability s borne by the Russian state.

Areas of India- USA cooperation:

Defense:
• Indian defense imports from the USA started only after 2005, and it rose to around $ 20
billion now.
• Factors of growing India-USA defense cooperation:
• Civil Nuclear deal 2008.
• India trying to diversify its import basket- the bilateral trade rose from $20 billion in 2000 to
$140billion in 2019.
• Bipartisan consensus ( Republican, Democrats) in the USA regarding India-USA relations.
• Influence of diaspora and pressure groups, like Israelis.

Evidences for stronger India-USA ties(1:30 PM):

• In 2005, a framework for defense cooperation was signed for 10 years that was renewed in
2015.
• Institutionalization of defense ties through joint military exercises.
• 2+ 2 meetings at the ministerial level started in 2018.
• Malabar exercises- Japan joined in 2015, and Australia joined in 2020.
• Quad.
• The signing of Foundational Agreements :
• GSOMIA: 2002
o It stands for General Security of Military Information Agreement.
o It is related to military information sharing.
o No other similar deal was signed for some time to assert strategic autonomy.
LEMOA: 2016
o It stands for Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement.
o This provides the framework for sharing military logistics.
o For example-the refueling and replenishment of stores and other related things during
the transition.
COMCASA: 2018
o It stands for Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement.
o This deals with sharing of communications equipment and systems(Centrix).
o The agreement is also known as the Communications and Information on Security
Memorandum of Agreement.
BECA: 2020
o It stands for Basic Exchange Cooperation Agreement.
o This will help in promoting Geospatial coordination.
o It will provide real-time access to American geospatial intelligence.
• 2016- India became the only country to have the status of a “major defense partner” of
the USA.
• 2018- India placed under category 1 of Strategic Trade Authorisation.The
• The USA was used to dealing with adversaries or with its juniors.
• To the American astonishment, India demanded parity in status.
• 2019: Industrial Security Annex was signed to facilitate the exchange of classified
information between the defense industries of both countries.

Indo –Pacific (1:50 PM):

• Both India and USA support free and open navigation in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Certain important principles of the Indo-Pacific:
o Respect for freedom of navigation.
o Freedom of overflight, unimpeded lawful commerce.
o Free, open, inclusive, and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.
The differences between India’s and USA’s Indo-Pacific Policy :
• Despite the closeness, the Indo-Pacific policies of both of them are not in complete sync
which can be seen as:
 Geographical expanse:
• For the USA, the Indo-Pacific region terminates at the western coast of India, while for India
it extends from the East African Coast to the Pacific Coast of the USA i.e, West Asia and
Eastern Africa are part of the Indo- Pacific region.
Dimensions:
• India gives substantial importance to the continental dimension of the Indo-Pacific since it
is both a land and maritime power.
• However, the USA privileges the balancing of China in the maritime domain.
• American sanctions on Iran and the subsequent pressure on Idia to limit its ties with
Tehran are evidence of the same.
Priority:
• The USA gives more priority to the Pacific Ocean, while the Indian immediate priority is the
Indian ocean.
• Thus, the USA has sought to pursue the military balancing of China through AUKUS by
sharing nuclear submarine technology with Australia.

QUAD :
• Quad is a security dialogue forum between India, the USA, Japan, and Australia.
• It calls for: Free, open, inclusive regional architecture.
• Freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Rule-based international order.
• Free sea lanes of communication.
Background:
• The idea started in 2004 as a loose partnership after Tsunami in the Indian Ocean.
• The rest members saw Indian naval capacities.
• In 2007, the first Quad meeting, but after that, Quad became dormant.
• India and Australia were wary of the Chinese response.
• India was also looking for an NSG waiver.
• The idea was revived in 2017 after all 4 faced the burnt of Chinese belligerence.
 Reasons for the revival of QUAD:
• Growing Chinese belligerence- Between 2013 and 2020, each QUAD member experienced
Chinese aggression under the reign of Xi Jinping.
• Japan experienced Chinese coercive behavior near the Senkaku islands in 2012.
• China also banned the exports of rare earth minerals to Japan in response.
• Trade imbalance caused tensions between Washington and Beijing.
• The Doklam Standoff in 2017 and the Galvan incident in 2020 soured Sino-Indian ties.
• China has built artificial islands in the South China Sea and militarised them.
• South Korea has expressed the intention to join Quad.
• Quad + meetings include Quad members + Vietnam, South Korea & New Zealand.

Institutionalisation of Quad:
• In March 2021, the first Quad Leaders Summit took place.
• In September, the first in-person summit took place.
• In March 2022, another summit in virtual format.
• In May 2022, the summit was held in person.
 Achievements of QUAD:
• In the past year, QUAD has transformed from a largely strategic, theoretical grouping based
on ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.
• The specific sectors of cooperation such as cooperation vis-à-vis Covid, technology,
Climate change, space, and cyber security have been identified.
• An Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) will collate
satellite imagery to offer near-real-time maritime mapping, track dark
shipping(untraceable shipping), and piracy, and provide disaster relief.
• They agreed vis-a-vis QUAD cyber security partnership and to work closely on space
observation programs.
• They will extend more than $50 million USD in the Indo-Pacific region over the next five
years.
• They have agreed to distribute 1 billion Covid-19 vaccines in Asia as a counter to Chinese
vaccine diplomacy.
• They will cooperate vis-à-vis critical technologies such as on 5-G supplier diversification
(beyond Huawei), ensuring resilient supply chains for semiconductor supplies.
• For People-to-people ties: QUAD fellowship for 100 students from the member countries
to the USA each year to pursue graduate degrees in STEM (Science, Technology,
Engineering, Mathematics).

Lacunae of Quad (2:00 PM):

• QUAD still does not put its money where its mouth is- at a time when USA’s funding to
Ukraine has crossed $54 billion, the $50 Billion in 5 years for infrastructure development
from the four countries cumulatively seems relatively small.
• QUAD fellowships would be primarily privately funded.
• The IPEF (Indo-pacific Economic Framework), though not a part of QUAD but part of the
Indo-Pacific vision is not a trade deal.
• The strategic depth is quite shallow as there exist no QUAD-level military-to-military
arrangements for example in SCO.
• Though all the members participate in the Malabar exercise, yet it is not held under QUAD.
• It has no secretariat even after 5 years ( it is necessary so as to maintain cooperation and
deliberations between the summits).
• Without such an arrangement, countering China would be difficult.
• Within QUAD, India’s close relationship with Russia, and its membership in RIC, BRICS, and
SCO stand out.
• Vis-a vis covid vaccines, the vaccines have not been distributed.
• Thus, QUAD is still a work in progress and primarily driven by top-down summits.
Advantages for India:
• To counter-balance China in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Through Quad, India can rise above its middle-power status and project its influence
beyond the Indo-Pacific.

Challenges posed by Quad for India(2:25 PM):

• Possibility of reactivating tensions with China on different fronts.
• This makes it imperative for new Delhi to ensure that QUAD is not reduced to an Anti-
China grouping.
• India’s involvement in QUAD could risk alienating our two important allies- Iran and
Myanmar since their growing closeness with China.
• China 2021 concluded a $ 400 billion deal with Iran while the recent coup in Myanmar has
forced the Junta Regime to seek diplomatic and economic refuge in China amidst the
western sanctions.
• Among the QUAD members, only India shares its borders with China.
• If India engages militarily with QUAD, there emerges a risk of Chinese aggression at the
borders.
• While QUAD is important to contain China in the maritime domain, India seeks partnership
with Russia through platforms of SCO and RIC to continentally balance China.
• In the present context of the severe deterioration of the West’s relations with Russia, India
in QUAD was the only country that abstained from UNSC resolutions on Russia.
• Other QUAD members have also been openly critical of Russia.
Concerns vis-a-vis AUKUS (Australia, UK, and USA) undermining QUAD (2:30 PM):
• The United States announced on 15 September 2021 that the US and the UK will help
Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines.
• It is a security grouping to contain China.
• Under it, the USA has agreed to share sensitive nuclear submarine technology with
Australia.

What does it mean for India and QUAD:

• QUAD can maintain its broad agenda and it does not have to commit to an explicit Anti-
China security framework.
• Thus, QUAD will continue as a plurilateral grouping with a vision for a free, open,
transparent, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
• This augurs well for India since India was reluctant to militarily balance China under the
Quad.
• India insists on QUAD having a” positive and constructive agenda”, i.e. not “against
someone, but for something”.
• Under AUKUS, the USA is sharing coveted technology(Nuclear Submarine) with one QUAD
partner (Australia) and not with others.
• India wishes to balance China without being the one to balance China.
• AUKUS also undercuts USA’s NATO ally, France in the process as France earlier had the
Scorpene Submarine deal with Australia, and has a considerable presence in the Indian
and the Pacific Oceans.
• If AUKUS leads to the weakening of the French and the broader European Commitment to
the Indo-Pacific, then it would only diminish the efficacy of the nascent security
architecture and deterrence framework in the region.
• Thus France and India reached out to each other after the AUKUS commitment to France.
• France assured India to strengthen India’s strategic autonomy including its Industrial and
technological base as a part of their close relations.

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF):

• Member countries- Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, USA, India, ASEAN
economies( Thailand, Philippines Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Indonesia).
• They represent 40% of the global GDP.
• It is not a traditional trade deal and therefore the associated skepticism as to what it will
deliver.
• It represents the idea of an “Alternative Trade Arrangement” led by the USA.
 The four pillars under IPEF:
• Connected Economy- Setting standards o digital trade, Cross Border data flow, and data
localization.
• Resilient Economy- Supply chain commitments and guarding against sudden price spikes.
• Clean Economy- Commitments to the clean economy, decarbonization, and infrastructure
to cut emissions.
• Fair Economy- In terms of enforcing regimes that cut down on money laundering and
corruption, and ensure fair taxation.
• Thus IPEF is about standard setting and facilitating trade.
• It will not negotiate and lower tariffs or greater market access for its members.
• As negotiations proceed, more areas of cooperation may be incorporated.
• There is an option for members to adopt a Pick and Choose attitude- countries can join
only those pillars that interest them.
• This concept has been developed to attract more members, but it raises questions about
the effectiveness of the framework.
Why USA has gone for IPEF
• It is a part of the USA’s Foot in door policy.
• It is a way for the USA to keep its foot in the door on trade in Asia after it withdrew itself
from the Comprehensive & Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in 2017, and
since the USA is not a part of RCEP.

The Chinese version of being a hegemon (3:00 PM):

• China has great progress in economic terms but it still lacks in the military and soft power
projection as the USA.
• It is still not able to integrate Taiwan, which it claims as its territory.
• China does not wish to carry the responsibilities that come along with being a global
hegemon.
• It is more interested in being a local hegemon.
• In China, the ruling political party has an army.
• They wish to continue with economic progress to its people so that CPC continues to hold
power.

Challenges in India-USA relations (3:10 PM):

Trade factor:
• No Free Trade Agreement till now.
• Disagreements in issues regarding the regulations of environment, labor, IPR(Priority
watch list), investments, etc.The
• The USA has taken India many times to WTO dispute redressal.
• General System of Preferences- USA gave liberalized market access to certain goods.
• India pushed out after 2020.
• Trump called India a “Tariff King”.

Russia factor:
• The Russia-Ukraine war saw many sanctions and resolutions that were sponsored by the
USA.
• The USA has consistently provided arms to Ukraine.
• India has not condemned and continues to buy crude.
• There was also a threat of sanctions on India under CAATSA for the Indian purchase of the
S-400 missile defense system.
• Russia remains our primary defense supplier and can be very helpful in conflict with China.

Pakistan factor:
• Kashmir was regarded as a “disputed area” by the USA many times.
• $ 450 million sustenance package for F-16 fighter jets.
• The USA announces that the aid is to counter terrorists, but India believes that it will be
used against India as in the Balakot airstrike.
• The deal is also a symbolic detente in USA-Pak relations after the Trump Af-Pak policy.

Why are India and USA not natural partners? (3:30 PM):
• The USA is fickle-minded, and not trustworthy.
• What they say and do is very different.
• Though they say they stand for democracy they also express Arab exceptionalism.
• They have also engaged in certain missions for exporting democracy like in Iraq, Libya, etc
that has pushed the states to chaos.

India- European Union:

• They are identified as natural partners- similar world view, value system democracy,
constitutionalism, human rights, rule of law, multilateralism, etc.
• EU is its largest trading partner of India. One of the largest sources of foreign investments
in India.
• India is one of the 10 largest trading partners of the EU.
• In 2007- Broadbase Trade & Investment Agreement (BTIA) negotiations started.
• The initial deadline was 2009.

Strategic Paper on India released by EU:

• It has focus areas:
• Foreign policy.
• Maritime Security.
• Counterterrorism, etc

Reasons for the growing interest in the EU:

• China factor:
• Both India and the EU are wary of rising China.
• China controls 1/10th of the European port facilities.

Brexit:
• It showed the weakness of the transatlantic alliance.
• India also lost its traditional gateway to European Union.

Mineral Security Partnership (MSP):

• The US and 10 partners — Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, the
Republic of Korea (South Korea), Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the European
Commission — have come together to form the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP).
• It aims to bolster critical mineral supply chains, so as to insulate themselves from
unilateral steps by China.
 Russia Ukraine war(3:50 PM):
• Russia is apprehensive about Nato membership for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
• Ukraine is critical to safeguard the Northern European plains.

•
Historical background:
• Russia has historically been susceptible to invasion, especially from Europe.
• Tsar expanded eastwards to secure mineral resources and to recede at the time of invasion
from Europe.
• The aim was to spread the supply lines of the attacker thin.
• The strategy used against Napoleon and during both World wars.
Russia and Ukraine:
• Russia wants a pro-Russia or at least a neutral leadership of Ukraine.
• Euromaidan Protests November 2013:
• The decision of the pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovich to reject an EU trade deal
for a Russian trade deal sparked protests in Ukraine.
• In Feb 2014, Yanukovich fled to Russia, and European forces are sent to Ukraine.
• The ground was given by Russian for annexing Crimea in 2014.
• Importance of Crimea for Russia:
• Sevastopol in Crimea has the only warm water port for Russia.
• Russia earlier had the port on lease with Ukraine till 2042.
• Russia was apprehensive that a western-oriented government in Ukraine might hamper
the agreement.
• The Russian Black fleet remains stationed at Sevastopol.
• The fleet was sent to Syria to aid the Assad regime.
• Crimea had 70% population of Russian ethnicity.
• In 2015, the Minsk agreement was signed to reduce the tensions.

Timeline of the current conflict:

• December 2021- 3 point demand given by Russia against Ukraine's NATO and EU
membership.
• The demands were rejected by NATO and Europe.
• Feb 2022- Special military operations began.
• Western aid came to Ukraine and sanctions were laid upon Russia.
• Russia annexed four provinces of Ukraine— Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
• A referendum was conducted, whose authenticity is questioned, later these four provinces
were declared part of Russia.
• Russia asserts that the residents in the four annexed regions will now be Russia's "citizens
forever".
There have been allegations of the use of dirty bombs- Conventional weapons with
radioactive components
Indian response:
• India has not condemned it but only said- "the era of war is over".
• India needs both USA and Russia to counter China.
• The longer the issue continues, the USA will keep focussing away from Indo-Pacific.
• Indian ambiguity might embolden China.
• Indian stand comes not from a position of strength but from the position of a geo-political
vulnerability that India must work to reduce.

THE SYLLABUS IS COMPLETED.