Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Carbon emissions from power sector in Pakistan and opportunities

to mitigate those
I. Yousuf a,n, A.R. Ghumman b, H.N. Hashmi c, M.A. Kamal d
a
University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
b
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
c
Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
d
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila, Pakistan

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Available online 21 March 2014 Many developing countries are acutely vulnerable to global climate changes. Pakistan ranks amongst the top
Keywords: of those nations where vulnerability index due to climate changes is very high. Though many of these are not
Alternative and renewable energies major contributors to the Green House Gases (GHGs) emissions, yet they have adequate potential to mitigate
Baseline emissions factor GHGs in various sectors. The power sector, for instance, is one of the major contributors to GHGs in Pakistan
Climate change and has prospects of abating GHGs by undertaking alternative and improving measures. The GHG
Mitigation potential contribution from grid connected power plants can be estimated through baseline emissions factor. This
paper has calculated this baseline emission factor by determining annual fossil fuel consumption in the grid
connected power plants, their net efficiencies, energy outputs and carbon emissions from each fuel source.
The data in this regard has been collected from Pakistan Energy Year Book published in 2009, 2010 and 2011
and through related government agencies. The tools, procedures and methodologies of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are
followed in this regard. The paper has calculated that the weighted average baseline emissions factor for
power sector in Pakistan is 0.566 tCO2/MWh (tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt hour) for wind and solar
power projects and 0.478 tCO2/MWh for hydro power projects excluding Karachi Electric Supply Company
(KESC) grid and 0.606 tCO2/MWh for wind and solar power projects and 0.505 tCO2/MWh for hydro by
including KESC grid. This baseline emissions factor is also a determinant of the amount of Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs) that can be accrued by implementing clean Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE)
projects. The amount of CERs generated by an ARE project also have the prospects to earn the carbon revenue
streams. The paper has also suggested measures for mitigating grid emissions.
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2. Area under study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.1. Power sector and GHG emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.2. Peak electricity demand and supply projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2.3. Future plans of government of Pakistan to meet project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3. Baseline carbon emissions from power sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4. Materials and methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4.1. Procedure to determine baseline emission factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5. Results and discussions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.1. Anticipated financial returns by generating carbon credits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6. Mitigation and adaptation measures for power sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
7. Conclusion and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

n
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (I. Yousuf).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.03.003
1364-0321/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
72 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77

1. Introduction south has the arid conditions usually warm, having a monsoon season
with adequate rainfall and a dry season with lesser rainfall. The
Mitigating GHG emissions is now an accepted imperative measure rainfall pattern has remarkable variations throughout the country as it
for many countries and Pakistan is no exception. Yet for many varies from less than 10 in. a year to over 150 in. a year, in different
countries the cost of mitigation is not fully covered by ordinary parts [6]. The North part, categorically, the Karakoram range and
financial returns and thus climate finance instruments such as the other mountains of the far north remain cold round the year and the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Nationally Appropriate Miti- frozen snow keep covering the ridges.
gation Actions (NAMAs), etc. can be important tool in increasing the The country has very hot summer and very cold winter. The
penetration of mitigation technologies and practices. Yet, the cost of geographical features of the country are diverse; the country
complying with climate finance provisions can be expensive. This consists of high mountains (mountains systems in the North,
paper seeks to reduce the cost of developing energy related mitiga- center, North-West and South-West), plateaus in the center, and
tion projects in Pakistan and increasing the reliability of emission South-West, planes, deserts and a long coastline. Each geographic
reduction estimates by developing an accepted grid emission factor location is characterized with different climatic conditions; some
that can be subsequently used by projects. regions are very cold and some are very hot while some of them
The burning of carbon based fossil fuels causes the emissions of remain moderate year round. However, the historical data indi-
CO2 and other pollutants including particulate matter (PM) that cates that the precipitation in this region is also less as compared
contributes to climate change [1]. Globally, fossil fuels such as oil, to adjoining areas. The country is blessed with a river water
coal and natural gas are the main source of meeting energy needs system which is main source of meeting water requirements for
of industries and households. The energy sector is responsible for the agriculture [6].
about 3/4 of the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane Because of diverse climatic conditions, the vulnerability index
emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide [2]. of climate change in Pakistan is very high as compared to most of
The scenario of determining the emissions from all gases, the countries around the globe. In recent years, the country has
sector and source categories per unit of electricity produced is faced climatic changes like increase in temperature, change in
termed as the baseline scenario as per the Marrakesh Accord (MA). precipitation pattern, weather shift, occurrence of floods earth-
The level of GHG emissions that would occur in the absence of a quakes, etc. Pakistan, though not a major contributor to the
clean energy project is also considered as the baseline scenario [3]. emissions that have resulted in creating climate change situation,
This baseline scenario determines the potential of GHG abatement but owing to its high vulnerability index, the requirement for its
and capacity to generate CERs by setting up clean project emis- adaptation to new changes is very high [7].
sions [4]. The generated CERs are a tradable commodity as defined Energy and agriculture sectors are the two main contributors in
by the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC that gives additional capital GHG emissions in Pakistan [8]. Curtailments can be made in these
flows into developing countries like Pakistan, accelerates technol- sectors to reduce the emissions. Especially, power sector in
ogy transfer, and enables developing countries to leapfrog to Pakistan is contributing more in GHG emissions. Switching to
cleaner technologies [5]. Simple mathematical calculations indi- clean fuels and deployment of renewable energies to meet energy
cate that the higher the baseline emission factor, the higher needs and adoption of energy efficiency measures are regarded as
number of CERs can be generated from a clean energy project. significant factors and key safeguard against the GHG emissions.
The developed countries are eager to finance the clean energy Alternative and renewable energy (ARE) resources like wind,
projects in the developing countries with an intention to meet solar, small hydro, geothermal tidal/wave, biomass/biogas, etc. are
their emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol abundantly available in Pakistan and regarded as best in the
[5]. However the standardized and updated baseline emissions region. Alternative fuels like biodiesel also has the potential for
scenario for the power sector in many developing countries is not development in the country. Being clean in nature, the AREs are
established. This reduces the ability of the projects to claim the not only the source of electricity generation but can also result in
number of CERs that project can earn while going through the reducing the GHG emissions. Energy efficiency measures in power
validation and verification processes of UNFCCC. generation can also result in reducing GHG emissions.
In Pakistan, several projects have developed their own baseline The GHG abatement potential of AREs and energy efficiency
grid emission factor and have successfully got registered their projects measures render excellent opportunity to earn CERs that can be
with CDM Executive Board. However, a standardized grid baseline translated into additional financial income stream coming to the
emission factor for the country is not available that compels every revenues of those projects. The potential of clean ARE/energy
project developer to calculate its own grid baseline emission factor, efficiency project to earn CERs can be best estimated by a credible
thereby causing financial impact and time delays. This paper has baseline grid emission factor [4]. The baseline grid emission factor
addressed this matter by calculating a standardized and updated calculated in this paper will be a key source for estimating GHG
baseline emission factor following international tools and procedures emission abatement potential of ARE and energy efficiency pro-
for Pakistan. Simple O&M method was used to calculate the baseline jects that would be executed in the country.
emission factor as it was determined that the method was more
pertinent to grid system of Pakistan since low-cost/must-run 2.1. Power sector and GHG emissions
resources constitute less than 50% of total grid generation. This
baseline emissions factor would enable the developed countries to Pakistan's power grid at distribution level i.e., 132 kV and below is
know their potential of meeting emission reduction commitments by being managed by two integrated public sector power utilities i.e.,
financing projects in Pakistan. This would also help Pakistan in nine Distribution Companies (DISCOs) in public sector administra-
initiating, propagating and promoting the clean energy initiatives tively controlled by Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) and
under the set of regimes that may be announced in future. Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) in the private sector.
DISCOs supply power to the whole of Pakistan except the metropo-
litan city of Karachi, which is supplied by KESC [9]. The system of
2. Area under study DISCOs and KESC are interconnected through 220 kV double circuit
transmission lines [10]. The transmission grid all over Pakistan except
Pakistan is located in the temperate zone, near to the tropic of the Karachi Metropolitan city is being managed by National Transmis-
cancer having climate varying from tropical to temperate. The coastal sion and Despacth Company (NTDC), a federal entity.
 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77 73

Table 1 suffice power requirements of the existing connected load. There

Installed electricity generation capacity (source: NEPRA)[11]. is around 3000–5000 MW Demand Supply Gap which is resulting
in 4–12 h Load Shedding in urban and rural areas of the country
Type MW %
[14].
Hydel – WAPDA 6587 27.86 Owing to heavy reliance on thermal power plants, the power
Thermal – WAPDA 4720 19.96 sector is one of the major contributors to GHG emissions. Energy
Thermal KESC 2381 10.07 sector and especially the power sector has remained the major
Thermal IPPs 8560 36.20
Hydel IPPs 129 0.55
contributor to GHG emissions with around 50% share [14].
Nuclear 787 3.33
Rental 374 1.58 2.2. Peak electricity demand and supply projections
Others (renewable) 106 0.45
Total 23,644 100.00
The electricity demand projections as per the studies of the
PEPCO and Planning and Development Division indicate that
Pakistan is short of electricity projected demand electricity. Chart
P a k is t a n E n e r g y M ix given in Fig. 2 below indicate that the installed capacity of Pakistan
Rental, in 2013–14 should have been 34,927 MW, whereas, current installed
Nuclear ,
1.79% Wind , 0.44% capacity is 23,823 MW that indicates shortage of 11,104 MW. The
3.30%
Hydel IPPs, Hydel - planned installed capacity for 2019–20 is 63,000 MW which
0.35% WAPDA & requires commissioning of 39,177 MW more power by 2020.
AJKHEB,
Thermal 28.97% 2.3. Future plans of government of Pakistan to meet project
IPPs ,
35.10% The Government of Pakistan (GoP) is exploring every energy
Thermal
resource to meet energy needs of the country. Generation of
KESC ,
9.47% power from ARE resources (like wind, solar, small hydro, bio-
Thermal - mass/waste to energy, etc.) and imported and local coal has been
WAPDA , visualized as a short term solution to current energy crises. While
20.57% exploiting ARE and coal resources more, the GoP is also harnessing
hydro and nuclear power in the medium and longer term.
Fig. 1. Electricity mix of Pakistan for the year 2011–12 [11].
Source: NEPRA.

The national electricity mix in Pakistan includes hydro, thermal 3. Baseline carbon emissions from power sector
and nuclear power plants. About 28.40 percent power is generated
through hydel power plants, 67.82 percent through thermal power Baseline emission scenario is very prudent to determine when
plants and the rest 3.78 percent is generated through nuclear and it is required to calculate total emissions of GHGs from the sector
renewable power generation systems [11]. The detail of installed and strategize to reduce or abate those emissions [15]. Globally,
electricity generation capacity in Pakistan is given in Table 1 and power sector is considered as major source of GHG emissions in
Fig. 1. most of the countries because of higher reliability on fossil fuel
The data available with the respective government depart- based thermal power generation [16–18]. The overall global
ments indicate that Pakistan's current total installed capacity for electricity generation mix indicates that share of thermal power
grid power supplies is 23,644 MW. The suppressed electricity generation is 70.5% i.e., coal (51.5%), followed by gas (16%), and oil
demand in the country is 19,735 MW during summer and (3%) [19]. By deploying cleaner energy technologies like ARE, it is
14,922 MW during winter season. possible that GHG emissions can be possibly reduced [20]. In order
The captive power plant statistics indicate that at present 42% to make an energy policy with a target to reduce GHG emissions
of the manufacturing businesses have installed costly captive and devising an environmental strategy to undertake GHG mitiga-
power units [12]. The approximate capacity of these captive power tion activities, it is prudent to accurately forecast GHG emissions
plants is around 2000 MW.1 The captive gensets installed in from fossil fuel power plants [21]. The accurate forecasting of
residential sector are not accounted for. Also, a large number of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel energy consump-
UPS systems are operating in the country which also put addi- tion is a key requirement for making energy policy and environ-
tional burden to the national grid. The figures of statistical mental strategy [22].
department indicated that Pakistan's fossil fuel Import bill for UNFCCC is emphasizing that all countries to undertake
the year 2011 had remained $13 þBillion which is 70% of the total increased mitigation efforts and commit targets for emissions
Export Earnings of the country [13]. Asian Development Bank has reductions [23]. Though, the developed nations are planning to
estimated that with current percent increase in energy demand, invest more in GHG emissions reduction initiatives, there is a
the oil import bill expected to reach at level of US $ 28 billion by potential to reduce large quantum of GHG emissions if major GHG
2015 which is 200% of the National Export Earnings.2 emissions contributing sectors in the developing countries like
Despite addition of more than 3000 MW in last five years,3 the Pakistan are encouraged to shift to ARE technologies [24]. The
supply side has not been developed to that extent that it could countries of the region like India, China, Thailand, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Iran, etc. have taken several initiatives to harness ARE
technologies and contribute towards mitigating GHGs. Most of the
1
http://pakbiz.com/news/Inefficient_captive_power_plants_causing_los countries of the world have established baseline emissions factor
s_of_Rs70bn_nid862386.html. and accordingly devising policies and strategies to bring the
2
Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report and Plan, June 2010, FODP Energy
Task Force.
emissions level down from the baseline.
3
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page ¼ 2012\10\31\story_31-10- At present, the national baseline carbon emission factor for
2012_pg5_13. Pakistan is not determined. Under the scope of this paper, data has
74 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77

Fig. 2. Electricity supply projections 2009–2030 (PEPCO & KESC (Combined System)).
Source: PEPCO, P&D Div.

been collected and analysis has been made regarding power Step 3: Calculate the operating margin emission factor accord-
generation plants in Pakistan, their efficiencies and fuel consump- ing to the selected method.
tions to determine baseline emission factor of the country. This Step 4: Identify the cohort of power units to be included in the
emission factor can be used by the power plants while developing build margin (BM).
their project documents and calculating the ability of the plant to Step 5: Calculate the build margin emission factor.
generate CERs under CDM [5]. This work can be helpful in Step 6: Calculate the combined margin (CM) emissions factor.
reducing the time that the project owners have to spend while
establishing the baseline scenario.
The details of these steps are further described below as
follows:
4. Materials and methods
Step 1: Identify the relevant electric power system:
Data collection was the first important task for this research. The As a first step, the electricity system connected to the power
input data for calculation of the base line emissions factor includes the plants all over the country was defined. The boundary was
electricity generation from each fuel type, total fuel consumption, Low fixed for whole of Pakistan. While doing so, it was noted that
Heating Values (LHV), Gross Calorific Values (GCV) of each fuel and the grid operations at all levels in Karachi Metropolitan city are
Effective CO2 Emissions Factor of each fuel. The values for the being managed and operated by KESC which is a private sector
electricity generation from each fuel type, total annual fuel consump- entity and rest of Pakistan is being managed and operated by
tion and GCV are taken from Pakistan's Energy Year Book for the years PEPCO through nine public sector DISCOs as described in
2009, 2010 and 2011 published by Hydrocarbon Development Insti- Section 2.1 above. KESC is an independent organization that
tute of Pakistan (HDIP) [25], whereas the values for LHV and Effective is responsible for generation and distribution of electricity
CO2 Emission Factor of each fuel are taken from the IPCC methodol- within the Karachi Metropolitan city territory. Main electricity
ogies published in 2006. generation within KESC grid comes from natural gas (NG) and
The number of CERs by a project is regarded as the quantum of high speed diesel (HSD) based thermal power plants. The KESC
Carbon Credits that the project can earn as per UNFCCC guidelines. is also being supplied with 700 MW through the NTDC grid.
These Carbon Credits can then be sold to international carbon The electricity supplies to NTDC grid is being generated
markets and earn revenue. The financial return gained through through various fuels like fossil fuels (i.e., Refused Fuel Oil
this can help in reducing the technical, technological and financial (RFO), HSD and NG), hydel, nuclear, coal, etc. [9,11,13]. Since,
barriers in executing such projects [9,26]. the electricity supplies to KESC grid system and NTDC/DISCOs
system have different fuel mix and as both are parallel
4.1. Procedure to determine baseline emission factor integrated entities in this paper two scenarios have been
visualized to calculate the grid emissions factor for Pakistan
The calculations for determining the baseline emission factor (i) electric power system with KESC grid and (ii) electric power
were carried out based upon the two methodological tools of CDM system without KESC grid.
Executive Board [27,28]. Following six steps were undertaken Step 2: Select an operating margin (OM) method:
while calculating the Baseline Emission Factor as per IPCC Taking into account the grid system in Pakistan, current energy
methodologies: scenario in the country and the data collected for net electricity
generation and fuel consumption, the simple OM method
Step 1: Identify the relevant electric power system. has been used for calculation of the operating margin emis-
Step 2: Select an operating margin (OM) method. sion factor (EFgrid,OM,y). This resulted in determining the CO2
 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77 75

emissions factor(s) for net electricity (EFgrid) on the grid from a Factor is used to calculate CO2 Emissions which are then
connected electricity system within the country. divided by Net Electricity Generation from each plant to
Step 3: Calculate the operating margin emissions factor according calculate Grid Emission Factor and Certified Emission
to the selected method: number (CE).
The simple OM emissions factor is calculated as the generation- Step 6: Calculate the combined margin emissions factor:
weighted average CO2 emissions per unit net electricity gen- The combined margin emissions factor is calculated as follows
eration (tCO2/MWh) of all generating power plants serving the [22]:
national system, not including low-cost/must run power plants EFgrid; CM; y ¼ EFgrid; OM; yXWCMXEFgrid; BM; yXWBM ð3Þ
The calculation was done based on data on fuel consumption
and net electricity generation of each power plant. Following where EFgrid,CM,y is Combined Margin CO2 emission factor in
formula was used to calculate the simple OM emissions factor year y (tCO2/MWh), EFgrid,BM,y is Build Margin CO2 emission
[22]: factor in year y (tCO2/MWh), EFgrid,OM,y is Operating Margin CO2
emission factor in year y (tCO2/MWh), wOM is Weighting of
∑i;m FCi; m; yXNCVi; yXEFCO2 ; i; y
EFgrid; OMsimple; y ¼ ð1Þ Operating Margin emissions factor (%),WBM is Weighting of
∑m EGm; y
Build Margin emissions factor (%)
where EFgrid,OMsimple,y is simple operating margin CO2 emissions
factor in year y (tCO2/MWh), FCi,m,y is amount of fossil fuel type The following default values are to be used for WOM and WBM as
i consumed by power plant m in year y (mass or volume units), per the IPCC guidelines:
NCVi,y is Net calorific value (energy content) of fossil fuel type
i in year y (Joules(J)/mass or volume unit), EFCO2 ,i,y is CO2  Wind and solar power generation project activities: WOM ¼0.75
emissions factor of fossil fuel type i in year y (tCO2/Giga Joules and WBM ¼ 0.25 (owing to their intermittent and non-
(GJ)), EGm,y is net electricity generated and delivered to the grid dispatchable nature) for the first crediting period and for
by power plant/unit m in year y (MWh), m is all power plants subsequent crediting periods.
serving the grid in year y except low-cost/must-run power  All other projects: WOM ¼0.5 and WBM ¼0.5 for the first credit-
plants, i is all fossil fuel types combusted in power plant/unit m ing period.
in year y, y is either the three most recent years for which data
is available at the time calculating baseline emissions factor or
Henceforth, the Simple OM/CEF value calculated in Step 4 above
the applicable year during monitoring (ex post option).
is multiplied with 0.75 and the BM/CE values calculated in Step
Two separate scenarios are taken for calculations of Simple OM
5 above are multiplied with 0.25. Both are added to give CM for
as indicated in Step 1 above.
Wind and Solar. For calculating CM for Hydro, both OM and BM
The calculation to determine Simple OM includes computing
and multiplied with 0.5 and added. The calculations in this regard
NCV by multiplying the LHV of each fuel by its GCV, Fuel Heat
are given in Tables 2a and 2b.
of each fuel by multiplying its NCV with total annual consump-
tion, Grid Emissions from each fuel type by multiplying its Fuel
Heat values with Effective CO2 Emission Factor of each fuel, this
5. Results and discussions
value is divided by total electricity generated annually from
each fuel to determine Grid Cumulative Emission Factor (CEF)
Based on the calculations (Tables 2a and 2b), it was determined
or Simple OM value.
that the weighted average baseline emission factor comes out to
Step 4: Identify the cohort of power units to be included in the
be 0.566 tCO2/MWh for wind and solar power projects and
build margin:
0.478 tCO2/MWh for hydro power projects under scenario one
The set of power capacity additions in the electricity system
i.e., excluding KESC as part of overall grid and under scenario two
that comprise 20% of the system generation (in MWh) and that
have been built most recently are taken into account while
Table 2
calculating the emission factor as per the guidelines of IPCC.
a National baseline emission factor calculated excluding KESC.
Step 5: Calculate the build margin emission factor:
The build margin emissions factor is the generation-weighted SOM Year tCO2/MWh
average emission factor (tCO2/MWh) of all power units m
2009 0.567
during the most recent year y for which power generation
2010 0.697
data is available. This is calculated as follows [22]: 2011 0.696
Average 0.653
∑m EGm; yXEF EL; m; y
EFgrid; BM; y ¼ ð2Þ BM 2011 0.303
∑m EGm; y CM for wind and solar 75%OM 25%BM 0.566
CM for Hydro 50–50% 0.478
where EFgrid,BM,y is Build margin CO2 emission factor in year y
(tCO2/MWh), EGm,y is net quantity of electricity generated and
delivered to the grid by power unit m in year y (MWh), EFEL,m,y
is CO2 emission factor of power unit m in year y (tCO2/MWh), m
Table 2
is power units included in the build margin, y is most recent b National baseline emission factor calculated including KESC.
historical year for which power generation data is available.
In order to calculate BM, the IPCC guidelines require taking SOM Year tCO2/MWh
either five recently constructed power plants or 20% of the
2009 0.685
national generation capacity, whichever is greater. We adopted 2010 0.704
the latter option as this gives the greater value. The Net 2011 0.732
Electricity Generation and Plant Efficiencies are taken from Average 0.707
Pakistan's Energy Year Book for the years 2009–2011, whereas BM 2011 0.303
CM for wind and Solar75%BM 25%OM 0.606
Emission Factors of each fuel are taken from the IPCC guide-
CM for Hydro 50–50% 0.505
lines. The product of generated electricity and Fuel Emission
76 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77

Table 3 Table 4
Calculations for numbers of CERs generation from a 50 MW wind power plant. Calculations for numbers of CERs generation from a 20 MW small hydro
power plant.
Project capacity 50 MW
Benchmark energy 135.00 GWh Project capacity 20 MW
Benchmark capacity factor 31% Benchmark energy 102.00 GWh
No. of hours in a year 8760 Hours Benchmark capacity Factor 58%
Carbon emission/intensity factor 0.544 No. of hours in a year 8760 Hours
Tariff for wind power project 14.6628 US Cents/kWh Carbon intensity factor 0.451
Credit rate in euros 4a Euros Tariff for hydro power project 8.6244 US Cents/kWh
Conversion rate euro to dollar 1.55 Euro/USD Credit rate in euros 4a Euros
Conversion rate dollar to PKR 90 USD/PKR Conversion rate euro to dollar 1.55 Euro/USD
Total CERs in 20 years 1,614,161 CERs Conversion rate dollar to PKR 90 USD/PKR
Average CERs in 20 years 76,865 CERs Total CERs in 20 years 1,029,971 CERs
Benchmark CERs 76,410 CERs Average CERs in 20 years 49,046 CERs
Benchmark CERs 48,756 CERs
a
EU markt snapshot Aug 2010 – maart. 2012 http://www.emissierechten.nl/
a
(26 mrt 2012). EU Markt Snapshot aug 2010 – maart. 2012 http://www.emissierechten.nl/
(26 mrt 2012).

i.e., with the inclusion of KESC, it comes out to be 0.606 tCO2/MWh

for wind and solar power projects and 0.505 tCO2/MWh for hydro of power projects based on conventional energy resources. As a
power projects. whole, Pakistan is contributing very less in current global climate
The numbers calculated above indicate that Pakistan's national change, but unfortunately, it is one of the nations who are facing
grid is relatively cleaner, as compared to other countries of the higher degree of vulnerabilities of the phenomenon of climate
world yet still emits large amounts of CO2. From the results it can change. Owing to this, Pakistan's major focus should be adaptation
be deduced that there are definite prospects of making the grid to current climate change. However, there can be a number of
cleaner by setting up ARE projects and undertaking certain energy mitigation measures which can be undertaken.
conservation measures that would result in abating the CO2 Being indigenous and clean source of energy, ARE renders
emissions. Based upon the baseline emission factor, it can be excellent prospects for achieving energy security, self-reliance to
determined that the clean energy projects generating Z number of meet energy needs, environmental protection and sustainable
MWh having no or very minimal emissions can result in abating economic growth. Owing to this ARE shall be given special
Z  Egrid,CM,y tones of CO2. This number is regarded as number of incentives and preferential growth environment. Moreover,
CERs generated by the project which can be traded in international energy conservation, efficiency improvement and mitigation mea-
carbon market under CDM and can become a financial revenue sures can also be undertaken in the power sector to mitigate GHG
earning stream for the project. emissions.
This paper suggests that the GoP should undertake mitigation
and adaptation measures to abate GHG emissions and adapt to the
5.1. Anticipated financial returns by generating carbon credits
current prevailing and future anticipated changing climatic con-
ditions. Most of the measures can result in abating GHGs and an
The baseline emission factor determined above can be directly
ability to earn CERs/carbon credits through CDM/NAMA or
used to work out the number of CERs that a clean energy project can
through other international carbon market mechanisms and
generate in its whole life. Each CER is also termed as Carbon Credit.
render opportunity to earn additional revenues, thereby resulting
This number can then be used to determine the financial returns that
in reducing financial impacts of undertaking such initiatives.
can be accrued from sale of CERs in the international carbon market.
For instance, assume a 50 MW wind power project able to generate
135 GWh annually on 31% capacity factor. The power plant will be
able to generate at an average of 73,440 CERs annually. The details of
7. Conclusion and recommendations
assumed plant and number of CERs are given in Table 3.
Each generated CER was assigned a value of Euro 4.4 The
Power sector in Pakistan is one of major contributors to GHG
calculations indicate that the CERs accrued from ARE power
emissions in the country. The national electricity mix is dominated
project (wind and solar) can generate a revenue of around Euro
by thermal power projects emitting large quantity of CO2. The
305,640 annually. This is a substantial return which an ARE power
electricity mix of the country can be improved by reducing the
project owner can make.
dominance of thermal power plants and making the grid cleaner.
Similarly, a small hydro power plant of 20 MW capacity having
The baseline emissions factor has been determined in this
capacity factor of 58% will be able to generate around 46,000 CERs
paper for the first time. The baseline emissions factor is a helpful
annually. The details of assumed plant and number of CERs are
tool in determining the per MWh emissions onto the national grid
given in Table 4.
and ability of a cleaner project to abate the emissions. Having an
Supposing similar assumptions as in case of wind, it is deduced
established and announced baseline carbon emission factor can be
that the plant will be able to generate Euro 184,000 annually as
very beneficial in terms of giving the project developers an upfront
carbon revenue.
knowledge of what CER numbers can their project generate during
whole life of the project and determining the approximate
financial returns that their project can earn through sale of CERs.
6. Mitigation and adaptation measures for power sector This paper has calculated baseline emissions factor for power
sector in Pakistan based upon currently integrated power projects,
Being a developing country, it is very difficult for Pakistan to their efficiencies, fuel consumption and emissions. Based on the
cut short increasing energy demand and to avoid commissioning calculation it was determined that the weighted average baseline
emission factor comes out to be 0.566 tCO2/MWh for wind and
4
EU Markt Snapshot aug 2010 – maart. 2012 http://www.emissierechten.nl/ solar power projects and 0.478 tCO2/MWh for hydro power pro-
(26 mrt 2012). jects excluding KESC as part of overall grid. With the inclusion of
 I. Yousuf et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34 (2014) 71–77 77

KESC, it comes out to be 0.606 tCO2/MWh for wind and solar and utilities planning new power plants in developing countries post – 2012 ;
power projects and 0.505 tCO2/MWh for hydro power projects. 2009 〈http://cd4cdm.org/Publications/ElectricityCreditingPlantsEmissionStan
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